What We Learned: New Numbers In The Old Dominion
What we at The Hotline learned this week:
-- We received another reminder of just how close and hotly contested the Virginia Senate race is likely to be. A new Washington Post poll shows former Democratic National Committee Chairman Tim Kaine and former Sen. George Allen (R) in a dead heat. And if the heavyweight matchup on its own is not reason enough to tune in, with a competitive presidential race likely in the offing for the commonwealth, and potentially control of the Senate also in the balance, the stakes are as high as they can get.
-- President Obama received a bounce in the polls following the killing of Osama bin Laden. But a highly charged political atmosphere -- in which both parties have an interest in squabbling with one another, and both supporters of the president and his detractors have such hardened opinions -- make a bigger bounce harder to come by.
-- Will the death of bin Laden mean increased debate over the war in Afghanistan? Sen. Richard Lugar (R-Ind.) this week doubled down on his efforts to press Obama for a clear endgame in Afghanistan. Lugar's primary opponent, Indiana Treasurer Richard Mourdock (R), has accused Lugar of being "Obama's favorite senator," and questioning Obama's strategy is one way for Lugar to distance himself from the president. For Lugar's camp, an uptick in foreign policy interest among Republican voters in Indiana could provide an opening and increased attention; still, polling shows Republicans generally support the war.
-- West Virginia acting-Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin (D) has further established himself as the front-runner ahead of the the May 14 Democratic gubernatorial primary. He posted strong fundraising numbers, released an internal poll showing him up 19 points over his nearest competitor and is finding himself increasingly being criticized by opponents, as Treasurer John Perdue (D) has stepped up his attacks against Tomblin. The expected low turnout in this race (and who it helps/hurts the most) remains the biggest variable.
-- Over in the Republican race, businessman Bill Maloney (R) is selling himself as a conservative and a political outsider. But campaign finance records show that he has donated to Democratic candidates in the past. The Maloney camp responded by pointing to donations former Secretary of State Betty Ireland (R), the GOP race's front-runner, has made to Democrats. Still, the story is a reminder that images carefully cultivated by campaigns -- in this case Maloney's repeated pitch as an outsider and a conservative -- are fragile, and can be easily dinged by revelations from the past.
-- With a second poll this week confirming that we really have a three-way race in New York's 26th District, Republicans have the most to lose if things don't go Jane Corwin's way in three weeks - and their nervousness is starting to show. Both Corwin and the state GOP have gone after independent Jack Davis, hoping that if they can remind people of his Democratic past, he'll stop pulling votes away from them. But they have two fronts to watch now, with both Democrat Kathy Hochul and Davis hammering Corwin on Medicare.
It's clear now that the Medicare issue will be the defining issue in the race, and so far Corwin has tried to turn the message back to jobs and the deficit. This is an early test for how the Democratic message will play, but the DCCC still isn't in; though with Corwin forced to go on the attack, it could be better if they wait it out and force her hand. On the flip side, the NRCC has already begun phone-banking for Corwin, but especially if they're forced to send resources and go up on air for her, it's an even surer sign that they're worried about how a loss could play into their 2012 plans.
-- The Nevada state GOP quickly went to court this week over Secretary of State Ross Miller's (D) decision to allow a free for all, or "ballot royale," special House election. Their chief worries if there's a multi-candidate field - 1) there's a definite opening for Democrats, who landed a strong candidate in state Treasurer Kate Marshall and 2) Sharron Angle could again play spoiler and either win the race or pull just enough votes away from other GOP candidates that Democrats do get a slim plurality and capture the seat. This will be a crowded race either way, but if Miller's decision is overturned and parties can pick their nominees, Angle likely won't get the central committee's blessing.
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