June 2011

Sure, Stephen Colbert can draw a crowd, and he did today, when the Federal Election Commission gave his parent company Viacom the right to create ads for Colbert's political action committee.

But the real story, as Hotline staff writer Sarah Mimms points out, came as the FEC rejected an appeal to allow federal candidates to raise money for independent expenditure-only political action committees -- the so-called "super PACs."

Writes Sarah:

In a unanimous vote, the Federal Election Commission ruled Thursday that members of Congress and federal candidates cannot raise funds for independent expenditure committees beyond the federal limit of $5,000.

The decision today is a setback for so-called "Super PACs" on both sides of the aisle that had hoped to harness the star power of popular politicians for financial gain.

Last month, Democratic groups Majority PAC and House Majority PAC filed a joint request for an advisory opinion from the FEC, asking the Commission to determine whether federal officeholders and candidates, as well as national party officers could solicit unlimited donations for Super PACs, citing a proposal by a Republican Super PAC -- called, unsurprisingly, the Republican Super PAC -- to do so.

Updated at 3:45 pm

MSNBC has suspended contributor Mark Halperin indefinitely after disparaging remarks Halperin made Thursday morning about President Obama.

In a statement released Thursday, just hours after Halperin called Obama "a dick," the network said his comments crossed a line.

"Mark Halperin's comments this morning were completely inappropriate and unacceptable. We apologize to the President, The White House and all of our viewers," in a statement by MSNBC spokesperson Jeremy Gaines. "We strive for a high level of discourse and comments like these have no place on our air. Therefore, Mark will be suspended indefinitely from his role as an analyst."

Halperin was asked about Obama's press conference performance, to which Halperin jokingly asked if the show was on a seven second delay. He was told they were, and host Joe Scarborough urged Halperin to reveal his thoughts.

"I thought he was kind of a dick, yesterday," Halperin responded.

Later in the show, Halperin apologized on air after he found out his words were not edited by the delay.

"I completely agree with everything in MSNBC's statement about my remark. I believe that the step they are taking in response is totally appropriate," Halperin said in a statement. "Again, I want to offer a heartfelt and profound apology to the President, to my MSNBC colleagues, and to the viewers. My remark was unacceptable, and I deeply regret it."

The White House called MSNBC to complain about Halperin's remark, with Press Secretary Jay Carney calling it "inappropriate to say...about any president of either party." He said as much to executives at MSNBC, Carney told reporters, but did not comment on their decision to suspend Halperin.

"That's not for us to decide," he said following MSNBC's statement.

Though Ohio Treasurer Josh Mandel's campaign has gathered momentum over the past week -- with the endorsements of Sen. Jim DeMint, R-S.C., and the Club for Growth -- former state Sen. Kevin Coughlin made it clear on a Wednesday afternoon conference call with reporters that he is committed to the race, taking a few direct shots at Mandel.

Coughlin acknowledged that "the Mandel train is picking up steam," but added that "I've been a longtime believer that if you believe that you're the best person for the job, of the people available, then you owe it to yourself to run. You'll never forgive yourself if you don't. And as long as I have money to put gas in the tank, I will be going around Ohio to explain why I am a better candidate for the U.S. Senate. Why I will be a better candidate to go against Sherrod Brown, and why I will be a better member of the U.S. Senate for the state of Ohio."

Coughlin attacked Mandel as no different from "a lot of the other politicians out there that have failed us," and that his ability to raise money is the only thing he has going for him.

"I believe that Josh is a person of some great talent, and will one day develop into a fine leader, but I think at this point the only thing that commends him to this race is that he's an awesome fundraiser," he said.

He also said he was "picking up a lot of reservation" around the state as to whether Mandel was ready to take on the challenges of being a senator.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. All eyes will be on presidential fundraising numbers as the second quarter closes tonight. Meanwhile, the DCCC launches automated calls against 14 of the most vulnerable Republicans. And Colbert makes a return trip to the FEC. Here's today's rundown:

9. A federal judge ruled Wednesday that medical authorities working for the federal Bureau of Prisons were legally justified in forcibly giving anti-psychotic drugs to Jared Loughner, accused of the Tuscon shooting that wounded Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, D-Ariz.

During a 90-minute hearing Wednesday, new details emerged about Loughner's mental state: Loughner is still thought to be a danger to himself and others, and he refuses to accept that Giffords was not killed.

8. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is launching new automated phone calls today in 14 targeted districts, hitting House Republicans on privatizing Social Security.

The calls begin today in the following districts: Paul Gosar, R-Ariz., Dave Schweikert, R-Ariz., Daniel Webster, R-Fla., Allen West, R-Fla., Tom Latham, R-Iowa, Joe Walsh, R-Ill., Tim Johnson, R-Ill., Bobby Schilling, R-Ill., Renee Ellmers, R-N.C., Jon Runyan, R-N.J., Michael Grimm, R-N.Y., Jim Gerlach, R-Pa., Pat Meehan, R-Pa., and Reid Ribble, R-Wis.

Money quote from the ads: "Republican leaders' scheme to gamble the Social Security that seniors worked a lifetime to earn on Wall Street is way too dangerous. One bad market could wipe out years of savings, putting generations of retirees at risk."

Stephen Colbert prepares to answer questions from the Federal Election Commission about Colbert SuperPAC.

Jon Stewart, on Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, saying the deficit needs to be reduced but that "tax increases are off the table": "It's like saying I would do anything for love but I wont do that. You really wouldn't then do anything for love."

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 0:15 to find out what happens if Congress doesn't raise the debt-ceiling by August 2.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump!

The Virginia Senate race is a dead heat, and Old Dominion voters are split on re-electing President Obama, according to a new poll that shows that the commonwealth is shaping up to be a key political battleground in 2012.

According to the poll, conducted by Quinnipiac University, former Gov. Tim Kaine, until recently chairman of the Democratic National Committee, has a scant, statistically insignificant one-point advantage over former Sen. George Allen, R-Va., 43 percent to 42 percent. More than one in ten voters is undecided, despite the fact that Kaine and Allen -- also a former governor of the commonwealth -- are well-known figures, in part a function of Virginia's one-term limit for governors.

Men choose Allen, 47 percent to 40 percent, and women tilt towards Kaine, 45 percent to 37 percent.

Voters are split evenly on re-electing Obama: 47 percent think he deserves to be re-elected, while 47 percent do not. The percentages of voters who approve and disapprove of Obama's job performance are equal: 48 percent. And Obama is in a dead heat against a generic Republican challenger, leading 43 percent to 41 percent.

Independent voters in the state are tilting slightly against Democrats, however. More than half of independents -- 54 percent -- disapprove of Obama, and, in the Senate race, Allen leads Kaine narrowly among this group, 46 percent to 38 percent.

The "Mother of Presidents" could help decide next year's presidential race, and control of the Senate may hinge on the campaign to succeed Sen. Jim Webb, D-Va. Both races are expected to make the Old Dominion a hotbed of political activity -- and money -- for the next 17 months.

The Quinnipiac poll -- the first time the school has polled in Virginia -- surveyed 1,434 registered voters from June 21-27. The margin of error is +/- 2.6 percent.

Updated at 8:30 pm

Businessman John Crowley will resume his role as Amicus Therapeutics Inc. chair August 15, the Associated Press reports, and won't launch a bid for the seat held by Sen. Bob Menendez, D-N.J.

In a note Crowley's friend and adviser Bill Spadea said Crowley would post to his Facebook page Wednesday evening, Crowley wrote, "while I deeply appreciate the very thoughtful and outreach from so many people who have encouraged me to seek political office in 2012 here in New Jersey, I want to let you know that I will not be a candidate for US Senate in 2012. This nation faces many serious challenges in the months and years ahead and we do need great people to serve in office to meet those challenges with courage and commitment."

"Basically, John, the position he's in and the decision that he's made to go back to Amicus is because his obligations -- with the military, with his business, and his family -- essentially are too great at this point in his life to for him to commit the proper time and resources to a successful Senate run," said Spadea.

Spadea added that part of the timing of the announcement "is to take his piece of the discussion and put that to rest early enough so the other folks who are considering a run have a clear view of what the field is going to look like. And hopefully this is the beginning of someone mounting an effective campaign against a vulnerable incumbent."

His compelling story could have made him an interesting candidate: he founded Amicus after two of his three kids were diagnosed with a rare genetic disease, and his life story was the inspiration for the movie "Extraordinary Measures."

State Sen. Joseph Kyrillos has opened an exploratory committee while he mulls a bid, and state Sen. Michael Doherty and state Senate Min. Leader Tom Kean are also considered potential Republican candidates to take on Menendez next year.

Read Crowley's full note after the jump:

The Federal Election Commission on Thursday will consider whether comedian Stephen Colbert can use a media giant's resources to promote his own independent expenditure-only political action committee. With Colbert slated to attend, the hearing has quickly turned into a Washington media circus.

But beneath the allure of a bona fide celebrity attending a sleepy FEC hearing lie deeper questions about the impact an FEC ruling could have on a law that exempts media organizations from campaign finance reporting requirements.

In March, Colbert broached the idea of creating a political action committee during his nightly show on Comedy Central. With the help of former FEC chairman Trevor Potter, the political satirist filed a request for an advisory opinion with the FEC in May. Colbert and his attorneys, including Potter, requested a press exemption from the commission to allow Colbert Super PAC to use the resources of his parent company, Viacom, to create independent expenditure ads for the upcoming campaign cycle, without having to report Viacom's contributions as "in-kind."

Hotline subscribers can read the full piece on the "Campaign Law Watch page.

Retired Army Colonel Mike McCalister officially announced his Senate candidacy Wednesday, entering a crowded field of Republicans seeking to challenge Sen. Bill Nelson, D-Fla.

"I've spent the last six months traveling the state to assess whether I would have the support necessary to wage a serious campaign for the United States Senate," McCalister said in a press release. "After meeting with numerous Republicans, Tea Party supporters, 9/12 Project members, fellow Veterans, and other conservatives from throughout Florida, it is evident to me that my lower tax, smaller government message is resonating with voters."

McCalister joins a crop of candidates seeking the GOP nomination that includes state Senate President Mike Haridopolos, former state House Majority Leader Adam Hasner and former Sen. George LeMieux. To distinguish himself from his 3 better-known opponents, McCalister will present himself as an outsider and tea party alternative to the three experienced legislators. His advisers have already taken to referring to Haridopolos, Hasner and LeMieux as the "Tallahasse Triplets," emphasizing the trio's extensive experience in state government.

"I am the only conservative candidate in the race with the experience and qualifications necessary to defeat Bill Nelson," McCalister said.

Former Rep. Brad Carson, D-Okla., won't be making a comeback bid to reclaim his old congressional district after all.

After Rep. Dan Boren, D-Okla., announced his retirement earlier this month, Carson immediately signaled he would run again for the seat he vacated in 2004 to make an unsuccessful run for the Senate.

"Lots of people here on Facebook have asked me whether I intend to run for the US House seat I held from 2001 to 2005. I very much appreciate the well wishes and encouragement, but wanted to let people know that I am not running for the seat," Carson wrote on his Facebook page. "There will be many good candidates, and I look forward to helping one of them."

Calls to Carson have not yet been returned.

"I don't think the district has changed that much in the last seven years. I think Dan did a great job, and I think my voting record would be similar to what Dan's was," Carson told Hotline On Call the day of Boren's announcement. "The next few months that will be the heart of the effort -- this campaign will cost upwards of $2 million."

Could Rep. Heath Shuler, D-N.C., be ready to put his Tennessee Orange back on?

The moderate Democratic congressman, who was quarterback for the Volunteers in the early 1990s, is reportedly a candidate for the University of Tennessee's vacant Athletic Director spot.

According to Knoxville WLVZ radio host Tony Basilio, Shuler was approached about the open position after Atheltic Director Mike Hamilton stepped down earlier this month, and "was receptive enough to do some personal due diligence." Shuler has also reportedly contacted former football coach Phillip Fulmer, who is also considered a possible candidate, and former football coach Johnny Majors, seeking their support. A Democratic Capitol Hill source also told Hotline On Call that in recent days they had heard similar rumors that Shuler was up for the job.

When asked about the news report, Shuler spokesperson Andrew Whalen did not directly deny it.

"Congressman Shuler is focused on the very serious challenges facing our nation, including job creation and balancing our budget," said Whalen. "He is currently and actively preparing for his next re-election campaign in 2012 and looks forward to continuing to fight for the working families of Western North Carolina in the years ahead."

Shuler was elected to represent the GOP-leaning Asheville district in 2006, but his seat is one that is expected to be redrawn to be sharply more difficult for him in maps the GOP-led state legislature will release this Friday. Shuler is already facing a primary challenge from Asheville City Councilman Cecil Bothwell, and as Republicans have focused pressure on the dwindling Blue Dog Democrats in the House, two have already resigned or announced their intention to retire in 2012.

Businessman Bill Maloney proved willing to use his personal wealth in order to win the GOP primary in West Virginia's special gubernatorial election, and the first campaign finance reports from the general election show he's continuing to partially self-fund his bid.

The race has been relatively quiet since the May primary, and finance reports from Maloney and acting Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin show that their fundraising hasn't fully amped up yet, either.

But while Tomblin raised more than double what Maloney did, the Republican loaned his campaign $150,000 (on top of the $500,000 he loaned the campaign during the primary), and Maloney ended the period with more cash in the bank.

Tomblin raised nearly $180,000 -- a large chunk of it reportedly from a campaign kickoff fundraiser in Charleston -- and ended up with a balance of about $29,000.

Maloney raised just under $74,000 in addition to the loan, and reported having nearly $88,000 in his campaign coffers.

The general election is scheduled for October 4.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Obama will give his first press conference in several months this morning, as the White House ad wars heat up. Meanwhile, Pawlenty loses ground in New Hampshire. And another Wamp looks to come to Congress. Here's today's rundown:

9. Palin hits Pella: Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin attended the premiere of "The Undefeated" -- an admiring film about her record -- in Pella, Iowa. But she didn't give anything away on whether she plans to jump into the presidential race. On daughter Bristol Palin's comments that her mom "definitely" knew whether she would run or not, Sarah Palin said she told her daughter, "What is talked about on the fishing boat stays on the fishing boat."

Meanwhile, Palin went on a lunch date with Iowa GOP fundraiser Becky Beach, but Beach says they didn't talk politics or money. "She just wanted to eat lunch and eat at a place where regular Iowans eat," Beach said.

8. Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Executive Director Robby Mook will email supporters later this morning with a "Make Boehner Cry" fundraising request. "We all know it doesn't take much to make Speaker Boehner get teary-eyed," it begins. "But let's give him something to really cry about."

"Just 24 hours from now marks the first mid-year Federal Election Commission (FEC) deadline of the 2012 campaign. This deadline is so huge that just last week Boehner announced he's transferring $1 million of his own Big-Oil-tainted funds to our Republican counterparts to give the false impression that they are the ones with the momentum at this critical benchmark. We can't let this stand."

The email features a Boehner "weep-o-meter" and the opportunity to win a "Weeper of the House" t-shirt.

Hours before President Obama is scheduled to hold his first press conference in three months, a new independent-expenditure SuperPAC formed by several of his former aides is up on the air in several battleground states with an ad responding to GOP criticisms of his record.

Bill Burton of Priorities USA Action said the ad campaign is a response to one launched last week by the conservative group, Crossroads GPS, but acknowledged the ad buy is smaller: about $750,000 worth as opposed to the $5 million Crossroads says it is spending in the first stage of a $20 million campaign.

"We never expected we would be able to match Karl Rove dollar-for-dollar," Burton told Hotline On Call in an email, "but we have a smarter advertising strategy and are running more effective ads."

He said the current ad is "far more efficient" because it is "focused on markets that speak directly to swing voters in swing states." Burton says the ad will run in Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Iowa and Colorado.

Watch the Priorities ad after the jump:

Jon Stewart is amazed that another former Illinois Governor has been convicted of a felony, "Let's say you're the present governor of Illinois. And you're in a room with a former Governor of Illinois on your right and a former Governor of Illinois on your left, chances are the room you're in is jail."

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 2:00 to watch Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., tell her, "Story of America."

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump!

Another day, another endorsement for Ohio Treasurer Josh Mandel.

I wrote on Monday that it had been a good couple of days for Mandel: his biggest primary competitor, former Secretary of State Ken Blackwell, had dropped out of the race; and then Mandel scooped up Sen. Jim DeMint's, R-S.C., first endorsement of the cycle.

And Tuesday, Mandel got another feather in his endorsement cap: the fiscally conservative Club for Growth.

"The Club for Growth PAC proudly endorses Josh Mandel for the United States Senate," said Club President Chris Chocola in a release. "Josh Mandel represents a bright future for Ohio and will be a pro-growth star if elected. Sherrod Brown has been a disaster for Ohio. Brown voted for the Stimulus, ObamaCare, and for the Wall Street bailout. Sherrod Brown's anti-growth agenda has killed jobs and hurt Ohio. We believe Club Members will do everything they can to help Josh Mandel win election as Ohio's next Senator."

When asked about the timing of the endorsement, Club spokesman Barney Keller, would only say, "We are excited to endorse Josh Mandel. We think he's an excellent candidate, and our PAC is looking forward to doing everything it can to make sure he's elected as Ohio's next senator."

Democrats, meanwhile, used the opportunity to go after Mandel, something they have been doing a lot of so far this year.

"Josh Mandel has campaigned for Senate on the backs of Ohio taxpayers while neglecting his job as Treasurer," said Ohio Democratic Party spokesperson Justin Barasky in a statement in response to the latest endorsement. "His consistent belief that the rules don't apply to him and his lack of accountability on numerous pressing issues proves there's only one job in Ohio that he cares about -- his own."

Are Democrats giving up on Sen. Ben Nelson, D-Neb.? According to a map sent to potential donors, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is apparently willing to leave the Nebraska Democrat out in the cold if the party can't reach its fundraising goals.

In an email to supporters sent late Monday, DSCC executive director Guy Cecil passed along two maps -- one he said represented the committee's "fully funded plan," where they planned to fight if they reached their monthly budget projections; and another with their "limited resources plan," showing a strategy if they don't meet their goals.

The more limited plan puts resources in Missouri, Ohio, Montana and Florida, where Sens. Claire McCaskill, Sherrod Brown, Jon Tester and Sen. Bill Nelson are seeking re-election.

But Ben Nelson's Nebraska is left off the list.

Nebraska will indeed present a difficult challenge for Democrats, regardless of which Republican emerges from an increasingly crowded primary field. What's more, the limited-funding map leaves out Democratic-held seats in New Mexico, Hawaii, Wisconsin and even Virginia, where former Democratic National Committee chairman Tim Kaine is sure to face a tough fight against former Sen. George Allen.

To be certain, the purpose of the fundraising appeal -- to galvanize people to donate, in this case by showing them a fairly blue map next to a much less blue one -- means we shouldn't read too much into it.

With former Texas Secretary of State Roger Williams dropping out of the race to replace retiring Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, R-Texas, Tuesday, the Republican field in Texas' Senate contest is beginning to take shape.

Williams announced Tuesday that he would run for a new Arlington area House seat instead of continuing his Senate campaign. He joins former Texas Railroad Commissioner Michael Williams, who also made the switch over from the Senate race to seek the GOP nomination in the new House district.

The departure of Roger Williams comes just one day after Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst gave his strongest indication yet that he will enter the Senate race. In an email to supporters Monday, Dewhurst heralded the "conservative victories" of the state legislative session and hinted that he would soon launch his campaign.

"I have been humbled by the support I've received from countless Texans encouraging me to run for the U.S. Senate," Dewhurst wrote. "After we finish the important state business this Session, we will have exciting news to share with you about what we will do next."

Speculation has surrounded a possible Dewhurst run since Hutchison announced her plans to retire in January. With high statewide name recognition and deep pockets, Dewhurst is considered the early favorite to capture the Republican nomination if he runs.

But the flight to the House race could have as much to do with the emergence of former Texas Solicitor General Ted Cruz as the potential entrance of Dewhurst. While the legislative session has occupied the lieutenant governor's time, the Republicans already in the race have spent the past few months trying to define themselves as the conservative alternative to Dewhurst, who has been labeled too moderate by some on the right, including Sen. Jim DeMint, R-S.C. Armed with endorsements from FreedomWorks and the Club for Growth, as well as a recent column from George Will gushing about his potential, Cruz has stepped forward as the most likely candidate to challenge Dewhurst from the right.

KENOSHA, Wis. -- Highly touted 1st District Democratic recruit Rob Zerban said Tuesday that he will be posting "a big number" when he reports his 2nd quarter fundraising figures to the Federal Election Commission. The second quarter ends on June 30. This will be Zerban's first FEC report, as he announced his campaign in April.

"I think people will be very happy with the number we will be posting for the first quarter reporting period," Zerban said. He would not specify a number, but a Wisconsin Democratic source close to Zerban's campaign said that the 2nd quarter number would be larger than any of the total hauls across an entire cycle from any of Rep. Paul Ryan's, R-Wis., previous Democratic opponents.

At the end of the first quarter, Ryan had over $3.1 million in the bank, a very healthy sum.

Zerban talked about fundraising after visiting Ryan's Kenosha office to drop off signatures from a petition that that goes after the congressman's budget proposal that revamps Medicare. Zerban's campaign collected the signatures with the help of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee.

In a sign of the national network Zerban will rely upon this cycle, of the 65,000 signatures only hundreds were from the 1st District; thousands came from the rest of Wisconsin and the rest of the country.

In a conference call with reporters after delivering the petitions, Zerban said he raised $16,000 this weekend along from 1,400 small donors. Zerban said he was undaunted by Ryan's cash advantage, and pointed to Democrat Kathy Hochul's upset victory in last month's special election in New York as evidence that being outspent by the GOP opponent didn't necessarily matter.

This morning, CNN's Washington bureau chief and senior vice president Sam Feist announced that Jessica Yellin would be the network's new chief White House correspondent, starting immediately.

"Jessica Yellin has emerged as one of the leading political reporters in Washington," said Feist. "Jessica's assertiveness along with her clever insight made her one of the top reporters of the 2008 campaign and has already set her apart in her reporting on the 2012 campaign. We're thrilled Jessica will now bring her outstanding political journalism to our White House coverage."

Yellin will be assuming the role left vacant by Ed Henry, who left to be the chief White House correspondent at Fox News.

"This is a dream assignment. I'm honored CNN is putting its faith in me and humbled by the responsibility of covering the White House during these challenging times--and as we head into an election," Yellin said. "I look forward to providing our viewers an honest assessment of the policies and the politics that affect our lives everyday."

Yellin has been CNN's national political correspondent since 2009 and has sub-hosted for CNN programs, including "John King, USA" and "Situation Room." She was the network's Capitol Hill correspondent prior to that, when she joined CNN in 2007.

Back in April of this year, the Hotline featured Yellin in Media Monitor's weekly special, "Friday Feature."

We learned that Yellin, a native Californian, loves Jack 'n The Box's curly fries and chicken fajita pitas, among other things.

A few choice excerpts from Yellin below the jump:

Nebraska state Sen. Deb Fischer entered the Republican Senate primary today, joining two prominent candidates -- state Attorney General Jon Bruning and state Treasurer Don Stenberg -- as well as two largely unknown candidates, businessman Pat Flynn and truck driver Spencer Zimmerman, in the crowded race to take on Sen. Ben Nelson, D-Neb.

Fischer went after Nelson in her remarks, calling him "a rubber stamp" for the Obama administration's economic agenda and saying he cast a "key" vote for "Obamacare."

A rancher who represents a district the size of New Jersey, Fischer chose to kick off her campaign in Omaha, the state's largest city, and will then visit Lincoln, the other sizable city in Nebraska.

It's unclear whether Fischer's entrance into the race will hurt Bruning or Stenberg more. But Fischer wasted no time in drawing a contrast with Bruning.

The Associated Press reported that at Fischer's Omaha kickoff, she drew attention to her seven years in the Nebraska state Legislature and noted that it's been some time since Bruning had been a lawmaker.

Bruning, considered the race's frontrunner, has amassed a substantial war chest and garnered a big endorsement for the Tea Party Express in May. Stenberg has considerable name recognition -- due in part to several prior runs for statewide office -- and was endorsed by conservative blog Redstate's Erick Erickson.

Fischer has previously acknowledged the challenge of gaining name recognition and raising the money to compete -- but expressed confidence in her abilities.

In a speech that attempts to stake out his position as the GOP presidential field's leading hawk, former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty on Tuesday accused President Obama of turning his back on democracy movements across the Middle East, saying the president has "retreated from freedom's rise" just as grassroots activists leading the "Arab Spring" needed him the most.

Pawlenty, speaking in New York at the Council on Foreign Relations, laid out an aggressive vision for his own foreign policy, calling for direct military intervention in Libya and the ousting of Syrian leader Bashar al Assad. And he said Obama has turned its back on Israel, treating it as an enemy instead of the country's closest ally in the region.

"The Middle East is changing before our eyes--but our government has not kept up," Pawlenty said, according to prepared remarks provided by his campaign. "It abandoned the promotion of democracy just as Arabs were about to seize it. It sought to cozy up to dictators just as their own people rose against them. It downplayed our principles and distanced us from key allies."

Pawlenty's speech occurs just as the hawkish foreign policy consensus that once united the Republican Party appears to be cracking. White House hopeful Jon Huntsman has articulated a scaled-back presence for America's military around the world, including a swift withdrawal from Afghanistan. Even the primary's early front-runner, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, has signaled that the country's footprint in other countries needs to be diminished.

But the former governor, while not mentioning any of his rivals by name, said that view is harmful.

"What is wrong, is for the Republican Party to shrink from the challenges of American leadership in the world," he said. "History repeatedly warns us that in the long run, weakness in foreign policy costs us and our children much more than we'll save in a budget line item."

"America already has one political party devoted to decline, retrenchment, and withdrawal," he added. "It does not need a second one."

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Blagojevich could be sentenced up to 300 years in prison. The National Republican Congressional Committee and Majority PAC both launch new, Medicare-focused ads. Deb Fischer's getting into the Nebraska Senate race and Roger Williams is leaving the Texas Senate contest. Here's today's rundown:

9. Former Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich was convicted on 17 counts by jury in Chicago, including all 11 counts related to an attempt to sell President Obama's former Senate seat.

The convictions on 10 counts of wire fraud, two counts of attempted extortion, one count of bribery, two counts of extortion conspiracy and two counts of bribery conspiracy hold a maximum jail sentence of 300 years in prison.

As he left his home to go hear the verdict, Blagojevich had quoted Elvis Presley. "My hands are shaking, my knees are weak, I can barely stand on my own two feet," Blagojevich said. "It's in God's hands now."

8. Rep. Lynn Woolsey, D-Calif., will not run for reelection next year, she announced on Monday.

The liberal Democrat had been eyeing retirement for some time, even confirming the rumors herself earlier this year and setting a June deadline to make her decision. Her openness about a potential exit has allowed several Democratic candidates to already begin lining up and raising money for the expected open seat.

Stephen Colbert prepares a pre-written letter of praise for Florida Gov. Rick Scott (R), "It is my strong belief that Rick Scott is an (adjective) Governor. His letter praising himself makes me want to (verb) up."

Conan O'Brien, on former Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D) being found guilty of trying to sell President Obama's senate seat: "As the verdict was read Blagojevich's face remained expressionless, while his hair remained ridiculous."

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 1:10 to fill in your own Mad Lib.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump!

A majority of New York voters approves allowing same-sex marriage, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll conducted last week as the state Senate debated, then narrowly approved, a bill that would allow homosexual couples to marry.

(MAP: Where is Same-Sex Marriage Legal?)

According to the poll, released early Tuesday, 54 percent of voters support "a law that would allow same-sex couples to marry," while 40 percent would oppose such a law. Support is down slightly from a poll conducted last month that showed a new high, 58 percent, supported a same-sex marriage law.

Democrats support allowing same-sex marriages, 67 percent to 28 percent, while Republicans oppose the law. 63 to 30 percent. A majority of independents, 56 percent, supports the law.

There is no gender gap in the poll, with 53 percent of men and 55 percent of women supporting the law.

There is an age gap, however: 70 percent of voters aged 18-34 support the law, while just 37 percent of voters aged 65 and over support it. But more middle-aged voters also tilt in favor of the law: 57 percent of those aged 35-49 and 59 percent of those 50-64 say they support allowing same-sex marriage.

After a lengthy debate, the Republican-held state Senate passed the gay marriage bill Friday evening, 33 to 29. Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo signed the bill into law later that night. The law takes effect in late July.

Rep. Lynn Woolsey, D-Calif., will not run for reelection next year, the ten-term congresswoman announced from her Petaluma home on Monday.

In prepared remarks, Woolsey looked back at her nearly two decades in the House, touting particularly her opposition to the war in Iraq as well as her work on local environmental issues.

"We haven't won every battle over the years, but we have fought valiantly -- always holding fast to our principles, never compromising our values. As much as we've accomplished, of course there are mountains we haven't climbed, challenges still to be met," said Woolsey. "But I will turn 75 years old just before the next Election Day, and after two decades of service to this district, it will be time for me to move on. And so, with enormous gratitude but not an ounce of regret, I am announcing that I will not run for re-election in 2012. I will retire at the end of my current term."

The liberal Democrat had been eyeing retirement for some time, even confirming the rumors herself earlier this year and setting a self-imposed June deadline to make a decision.

Woolsey becomes the second incumbent to announce their retirement - although hers was less of a shock than Rep. Dan Boren's, D-Okla., surprise announcement earlier this month. Twelve current representatives are seeking higher office in 2012.

With two weeks to go ahead of a closer-than-expected special election to replace former Rep. Jane Harman, D-Calif., Democrat Janice Hahn is out with her second and third television ads of the campaign - each with a different spin.

One ad echoes the message of her first spot - arguing that her Republican opponent, wealthy businessman Craig Huey, is far outside the mainstream. While her initial ad compared Huey to former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, the latest spot, titled "Extreme," piles on a comparison with another polarizing Republican - former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, whose White House campaign has been faltering since its launch.

"Sarah Palin, Craig Huey and Newt Gingrich: whose agenda is so extreme, they want to eliminate the Federal Reserve during the financial crisis? Craig Huey," says the ad. "Which is so extreme they called Planned Parenthood a 'Murder mill?' Only Craig Huey. And only Craig Huey is so extreme, he called elections 'spiritual battles,' and has called his opponents the forces of Satan."

But while the second ad begins with an image of Huey, saying the district doesn't need "another politician with an extreme partisan agenda," the ad's message takes a more positive tone, touting Hahn's independence and experience - and never mentioning her party ID.

"A local city council woman who has never held partisan office. Janice Hahn will fight for our agenda - a real plan to create green jobs in our communities," says the ad. "Take on Washington's spending. Make the right cuts while protecting Medicare."

Both ads, which will air this week on cable television in the Los Angeles market, keep up Hahn's aggressive campaign to discredit Huey after his surprise second place finish in the May all-party primary. Coupled with a Democratic internal poll showing Huey within single digits despite the district's 18-point Democratic registration advantage, along with worries of low turnout, the race has taken on an extremely negative tinge in the finals weeks leading up to the July 12 vote.

A web ad released by a conservative super PAC that alleged Hahn had helped put gang members back on the street - using strippers and an explicit rap song - only further fanned the flames, and Hahn's campaign has filed an FEC complaint over possible coordination between Huey's campaign and Turn Right USA PAC. Huey's campaign disavowed the offensive ad, but last week volunteers were distributing DVDs door-to-door of the news report, which has since been debunked, that the ad used.

See both ads after the jump:

Updated at 4:10 pm

Former Ill. Gov. Rod Blagojevich was convicted on 17 counts by jury in Chicago, including all 11 counts related to an attempt to sell Pres. Obama's former Senate seat.

The jury was unanimous on 18 of the 20 counts against the former governor after ten days of deliberation. They found Blagojevich not guilty on one charge of bribery and were unable to reach a decision the other two counts, both charges of attempted extortion.

Blagojevich addressed reporters after the jury handed down their verdict this afternoon in uncharacteristically brief remarks. "I'm going to keep my remarks kind of short. Patti and I are obviously disappointed in the outcome. I, frankly, am stunned," Blagojevich said. "There's not a lot more to say than that. We want to get home and talk to our girls. ... I'm sure we'll be seeing you guys again."

The convictions on 10 counts of wire fraud, 2 counts of attempted extortion, one count of bribery, two counts of extortion conspiracy and two counts of bribery conspiracy hold a maximum jail sentence of 300 years in prison.

U.S. District Judge James Zagel has not yet set a sentencing hearing, though the prosecution asked that it be scheduled as soon as possible. Zagel did rule this afternoon that Blagojevich may not leave the northern district of Illinois without the court's permission and put up the Blagojevichs' Chicago home as collateral for bond.

Seeking to boost small donations ahead of the second fundraising quarter's Thursday close, President Obama's campaign is upping the stakes on a fundraising gimmick it unveiled on June 15: Donate $5, enter a lottery to win a dinner with the president.

The campaign released a message Monday morning saying that it is setting another place at the table for Vice President Joe Biden.

"He wants to join us," Obama said in a 30-second video message to supporters. "So this isn't so much dinner with Barack anymore as it is dinner with Barack and Joe. And to use one of his favorite expressions, that's a big deal," he said, in a sly reference - with the expletive deleted - to a now infamous remark the vice president was caught making to the president after the signing of the health care bill.

The campaign will cover the cost of the flight and the meal for the contest winner.

It's been a good couple of days for Ohio Treasurer Josh Mandel.

First, former Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell announced Friday that he wouldn't run for Sen. Sherrod Brown's, D-Ohio, seat. And today, he landed a huge endorsement: Sen. Jim DeMint, R-S.C.

It's the first endorsement of the 2012 cycle for DeMint, head of the influential Senate Conservatives Fund - and a coup for Mandel, who hasn't even officially announced his candidacy yet (though he has filed papers to raise money for the race).

"Josh Mandel is the candidate supported by the grassroots," said DeMint in a statement. "Our members in Ohio are very excited about his candidacy and they've urged us to support his Senate campaign. We're answering the call today, and we're pledging to do everything we can to help the people of Ohio elect a new senator who shares their values."

Former state Sen. Kevin Coughlin is still running against Mandel in the GOP primary, but is not expected to be nearly as big a threat as Blackwell would have been.

Updated at 11:15 am

Slipped into a presidential kickoff address almost exclusively devoted to her Iowa roots, Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., made clear that though she will run as the all-in-one conservative, her tea party affiliation could be her ticket to stand out in the field.

Reiterating remarks she made last weekend at the Republican Leadership Conference in New Orleans, Bachmann said to an overfilled lawn in Waterloo, Iowa - her birthplace and the heart of the caucus state where she is expected to play most of her campaign chips - that "we can win in 2012 and we will."

The "we," she noted, "is made up of Americans from all walks of life like a three-legged stool. It's the peace through strength Republicans, and I'm one of them, it's fiscal conservatives, and I'm one of them, and it's social conservatives, and I'm one of them. It's the tea party movement, and I'm one of them."

"The liberals, and to be clear I'm not one of them, want you to think the tea party is the right wing fringe of the Republican Party," she continued. "But it's not. It's made up of disaffected Democrats, independents, people who've never been political a day in their life, libertarians, Republicans. We're people who simply want America back on the right track again."

South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley's expected veto of the state budget proposal that could partially pay for the state's presidential primary could have major repercussions in the upcoming campaign: Without the money to run the primary, the state GOP may have to run a caucus instead.

That's bad news both for a state party that jealously guards its position as the first-in-the-south contest, and for candidates like Mitt Romney and Jon Huntsman, who hope an influx of independent voters in a primary could tilt the election their way.

South Carolina Republican Chair Chad Connelly is worried the veto would mean the State Election Commission would not be able to help run the GOP primary, forcing the party to hold a caucus instead, the Columbia State reports.

"The South Carolina Republican Party is committed to having a spectacular and successful primary in early 2012," Connelly said in a statement. "On multiple fronts, I am working with our legal team, the State Election Commission, legislators, and the Governor's Office to protect it."

A caucus would mean significantly more sway for the most conservative, activist wing of the Republican party. That would hurt the prospects of Huntsman and Romney, who have already chosen not to focus on the Iowa caucuses -- Romney is skipping August's Iowa straw poll, Huntsman has said he'll skip the state altogether. Both contenders are planning to make a play for the wider primary electorate in South Carolina.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Crossroads GPS and House Majority PAC announce ad campaigns, Bachmann officially kicks off her campaign, coming off a great weekend with the Des Moines Register poll results. And there was an apparent brawl in the Wisconsin Supreme Court. Here's today's rundown:

10. More drama in Wisconsin: state Supreme Court Justice David Prosser allegedly grabbed his fellow Justice Ann Walsh Bradley around the neck during an argument last week, at least three knowledgeable sources told the La Crosse Tribune. Prosser has declined to offer details on the allegations.

9. It's the Kate and Mark show in the Silver State: Nevada Treasurer Kate Marshall cruised to the Democratic nomination for the special election in Nevada's 2nd congressional district, winning 117 of 122 votes cast Saturday at the Democratic Central Committee. For now she's set to face GOP nominee Mark Amodei, but it's still not clear which candidates will be allowed to run. The state Supreme Court could either rule that the race will be an open contest or that the state parties nominate the candidates. Stay tuned for a Tuesday hearing on the issue.

8. After a long battle, gay marriage passed the New York state Senate Friday night and was signed into law by Gov. Andrew Cuomo. Cuomo had made passing a gay marriage bill a top priority for his first year in office, and it's a major victory for him. It's also caused a bout of media speculation on Cuomo making a White House run in 2016 -- speculation which Cuomo has tried to halt.

Meanwhile, the New York Times editorializes, "Gay Marriage: Where's Mr. Obama?" The GOP-led NY state Senate, "of all places, proved itself more forward-thinking than the president on one of the last great civil-rights debates in this nation's history," they opine.

Bill Maher doesn't think Republicans should have walked out of the debt-ceiling negotiations, "Eric Cantor got mad at John Boehner because he went golfing with Obama and talked about stuff that Cantor wasn't in on. And that's it for this week's episode of Real Housewives of DC."

Jay Leno has a video of former California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, "up to his old tricks" in Austria.

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 1:00, Jimmy Fallon dusts off his impersonation of Bill Clinton.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump!

What we at The Hotline learned this week:

-- More evidence the power of outside groups is increasingly overshadowing the role of the parties in elections: the money that conservative group Crossroads' GPS is spending on an ad campaign targeting Pres. Obama over the next couple of months is more than three times the $6.2 million that the Republican National Committee has in cash on hand.

-- Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney started out the week defending his decision not to sign a pledge from the Susan B. Anthony List. His declared "honeymoon" was also said to have ended at the start of the week as candidates began to directly attack the front runner.

Still, Romney came out on top this week by playing to his strengths -- i.e. his ability to raise lots and lots of money. Not to be outdone by his one-day fundraiser that raised $10 million in May, Romney closed out this week ahead of the pack. He announced a fundraiser in London in July soliciting campaign contributions from well-connected Americans abroad, and continued his June fundraising blitz by with stops in Utah. Romney's supporters are also getting into the fundraising game and have been quietly starting a super PAC whose political director also happens to be Carl Forti, political director for American Crossroads.

-- Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin may not be running for president, but give her this much: she certainly has a knack for stepping on the toes of actual candidates. First, it was Palin's "One Nation" bus tour rolling conspicuously into New Hampshire on the day Romney launched his campaign there. Palin insisted it was happenstance, and Romney didn't seem to mind.

But now comes an even more blatant big-footing: Palin will attend the world premiere of "The Undefeated," a documentary defending her political legacy, in Pella, Iowa on Tuesday night - one day after Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., launches her campaign 100 miles away in Waterloo, Iowa. Coincidence? Perhaps. But Palin visiting the Hawkeye State - where she's been noticeably absent the past seven months - will siphon a great deal of media coverage from Bachmann's big day. Whether intentionally or not, Palin has a habit of stealing the media spotlight at the most inopportune of times for her potential Republican rivals.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., are the two clear, early Republican frontrunners for next year's Iowa presidential caucuses, according to the results of the first Des Moines Register poll released tonight.

The poll shows Romney and Bachmann in a dead heat for first place. Romney wins support from 23 percent of likely caucusgoers, while Bachmann comes close to matching him, with 22 percent.

The results are a major boost for Bachmann, a Tea Party favorite who is kicking off her campaign on Monday and whose social and fiscal conservatism has been resonating with state Republican activists. She also turned in a strong performance in the most recent debate.

Finishing a distant sixth is former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty, who finished with six percent. Pawlenty has poured early resources into Iowa, spending 26 days there,while Romney has concentrated his focus on New Hampshire. Pawlenty just went up with a small television ad buy introducing himself to Iowa voters - the ads ran the final day the poll was in the field - but it hasn't had an impact, at least not yet.

Pawlenty's campaign is concentrating on a strong performance in the August Ames straw poll. A strong result can be a springboard to future successes in the state, but if these numbers are any indication, he has a lot of catching up to do.

The poll found businessman Herman Cain is in third place, with 10 percent, and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Rep. Ron Paul, R-Tex., are tied for fourth with 7 percent of the vote apiece. Former Utah governor and Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman is in dead last, with just two percent.

Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, who will be in Iowa next week to screen her documentary, and Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who is considering a presidential campaign, were not tested in the poll.

At the Nevada Democratic Central Committee Saturday, Treasurer Kate Marshall won the party's nomination for the special election in the state's 2nd congressional district in a landslide. Marshall, who had the support of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, had been widely expected to win.

Marshall won 117 votes of 122 cast, the Associated Press reported . Former university regent Nancy Price, the only other candidate with any name recognition, withdrew yesterday from the campaign.

"I am honored to receive this nomination, Nevadans deserve a voice in Congress that will fight for middle class families, and that's what I intend to do. I'll work every day to create jobs in northern Nevada and win the fight to control runaway spending in Washington," said Marshall in a statement.

"Kate Marshall lost $50 million of Nevada taxpayers' money on a Wall Street gamble," said National Republican Campaign Committee spokesperson Tyler Houlton in a statement. "Marshall merely represents more of the same failed liberal policies that have given Nevada severe job losses and home foreclosures. Nevada voters will not only reject Marshall's dismal record as the state's top financial officer, they will reject her for being Harry Reid's handpicked candidate to continue Washington's spending culture."

Former state Sen. Mark Amodei easily won the Republican nomination last weekend.

The seat has been open since its former occupant, Sen. Dean Heller, R-Nev., was appointed to the Senate. The special election is scheduled for September 13, but it's still unclear which candidates will be allowed to enter: though Secretary of State Ross Miller initially decided any qualifying candidate could run, the state GOP appealed and Miller's decision was overturned by a district court. The state Supreme Court will make the final call, and could rule that the race will be an open contest (the "ballot royale" scenario), or that the state parties nominate the candidates.

A hearing before the state Supreme court is scheduled for June 28.

Just as some pundits were counting her out as a presidential candidate, Sarah Palin has laid on plans to visit Iowa next week -- one day after her tea party soul mate and potential rival, Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., is set to launch her presidential campaign in the same state.

Distributors of The Undefeated, a flattering documentary about Palin's political career, announced Saturday that the former Alaska governor and her husband, Todd, will attend a premiere of the movie Tuesday in Pella, Iowa.

The town, about 40 miles east of Des Moines, is home to an historic opera house where the movie will be shown.

"We are very excited to visit historic Pella and its opera house and look forward to seeing the finished film for the first time with fellow Americans from the heartland," Palin is quoted as saying in a release announcing her plans to attend the event.

The national rollout for the movie begins July 15.

Palin's visit to the state where the first votes of the presidential contest will be cast early next year comes amidst intense speculation about whether the 2008 GOP vice presidential nominee is really interested in making the race -- and signs that other conservative candidates are moving into the apparent vacuum left by her lack of a definitive declaration.

In addition to Bachmann, who kicks off her campaign Monday morning in Waterloo, Iowa -- her birthplace -- Rep. Thaddeus McCotter, R-Mich., and Texas Gov. Rick Perry (a political ally of Palin's ) are beginning to make moves towards the starting line of the GOP presidential race. McCotter will be in Iowa on Monday to address a tea party rally in Ottumwa.

President Obama will also be in Iowa on Tuesday: He's visiting an Alcoa plant in Davenport.

The conservative group Crossroads' GPS policy arm is going up with a significant $5 million advertising campaign next week, attacking President Obama on the economy, according to a copy of the ad shared with National Journal.

Over the next two months, the group's television campaign targeting Obama's record on the economy will total $20 million.

The first ad, which begins airing next Monday, shows a clip of Obama joking this month that some of the shovel-ready projects in the stimulus "was not as shovel ready as we expected" while highlighting rising unemployment and gas prices since he took office.

"Obama's $830 billion stimulus failed," a narrator says in the ad. "14 million out of work. America drowning in debt. It's time to take away Obama's blank check."

The ad will be running on cable nationwide and also in key battleground states that Obama is focused on holding for his re-election. They include: including Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Missouri, North Carolina, New Mexico, Nevada, and Virginia. It will be running for two weeks.

The $20 million that the Rove-aligned group has committed to the ad campaign - well over one year before the presidential election - is a telling indicator of how much clout it will be wielding in the 2012 campaign. It raised about $70 million for the entire 2010 cycle on Senate and House races. In just one campaign, it's spending a significant sum of that to attack President Obama at this early stage.

And the money on this one ad campaign alone is more than three times the $6.2 million that the Republican National Committee, which usually funds ads like these, has in cash on hand. (That doesn't include the $18.5 million the RNC has in debt.)

The group today announced, at a Christian Science Monitor breakfast, it had pledged to raise about $120 million for the 2012 cycle as it attempts to amplify the Republican message in the presidential election, as well as battleground Senate and House contests.

American Crossroads officials have raised the specter that President Obama is poised to raise $1 billion for his re-election, raising the stakes for outside Republican groups to level the playing field. Its GPS sister organization doesn't have to disclose donors.

A new report filed yesterday with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) shows that American Crossroads has raised $3.8 million this year. Over 90 percent of that money came from just three donors. The group spent about $600,000 to help Republican Jane Corwin in an off-year House election, but Democrats picked up the seat.

The group just went up this week with a $50,000 radio ad attacking one of the more vulnerable Democratic senators up for re-election next year, Sen. Claire McCaskill, D-Mo.

View the ad after the jump:

Updated at 6:15 pm

The battle between Republicans and Democrats over the budget, which has consumed Washington for months, will be on the agenda this weekend. Also on tap will be Pres. Obama's troop withdrawal strategy from Afghanistan and the 2012 race for the GOP presidential nomination.

On NBC's "Meet the Press," New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) will appear hot off his victory in the New Jersey statehouse, which passed bipartisan health care and pension reforms. Christie will discuss the Republican presidential field and whether one of the current contenders has what it takes to beat Obama in '12. He will also give his thoughts on how Washington could come together to solve its budgetary issues.

Keeping on the topic of the budget, "Fox News Sunday" will speak with Senate Minority Whip Jon Kyl about the current negotiations with Vice President Joe Biden and why he and House Majority Leader Eric Cantor decided to walk away from them. CNN's "State of the Union" will discuss where House Democrats stand in the budget negotiations with House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi and then will speak to Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.) about the Senate Republicans' plans for the budget and debt ceiling votes.

Also on "Meet," two military veterans -- Sens. Jack Reed (D-R.I.) and Jim Webb (D-Va.) will discuss the United State's involvement in Libya and Obama's plan for pulling out of Afghanistan. Meanwhile, CNN talks to House Intelligence Cmte Chairman Mike Rogers (Mich.) about Afghanistan and the recent vote in the House on the U.S.' involvement in Libya.

Both CBS' "Face the Nation" and "Fox News Sunday" will talk with Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) ahead of her presidential campaign kickoff on Monday.

Get the full listings after the jump.

Former Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell won't run in the Republican Senate primary for the nomination to challenge Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, he told the Daily Caller Friday.

Blackwell said that he felt it was unfair to the "conservative objective" of beating Brown to linger any longer over the decision. He cited four reasons for his decision: that running would require him to "make nice" with people he would rather not; that he prefers executive office over legislative office; that he wouldn't be able to make a two-term commitment to the seat, which he wouldn't do because of his age.

Finally, he said, "The encouragement and commitment I received from movement conservatives and donors in Ohio and from across the country were substantial, and a source of political strength that the GOP establishment has never been able to grasp."

Blackwell's decision should come as welcome news to Treasurer Josh Mandel. While many establishment Republicans in Washington and Ohio have been bullish on Mandel's chances, Blackwell led him in early polling.

While Mandel hasn't held an official campaign launch yet, he's filed paperwork with the Federal Election Commission and has already begun raising money. Democrats have filed a complaint against the 33-year-old Iraq War veteran for being late on his personal financial disclosure forms.

Former state Sen. Kevin Coughlin has already jumped into the GOP race, but isn't expected to present as big a challenge to Mandel.

Washington Rep. Jay Inslee's decision to run for governor of Washington puts the 1st District Democratic congressman on a likely collision course with GOP Attorney General Rob McKennna, setting up what could be one of 2012's marquee gubernatorial races.

Republicans have not won a gubernatorial race in the blue state since 1980, and Democrats are even more bullish on their chances, considering President Obama will be at the top of the ticket in 2012.

But how much correlation is there between the way voters pick a gubernatorial candidate and how they choose a presidential candidate on the same ballot?

Not as much as you'd think. In 2008, now-Missouri Gov. Jay Nixon, then-West Virginia Gov. Joe Manchin and now-North Carolina Gov. Bev Perdue ran ahead of Obama in their respective states.

Nixon cruised to an open seat victory, winning over 58 percent of the vote, while Obama was narrowly edged out by Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz. (both received about 49 percent of the vote). Manchin won reelection with almost 70 percent of the vote in 2008, while Obama was routed by McCain in West Virginia (for more on West Virginia, National Journal subscribers can check out our "Appalachian Paradox" story).

North Carolina, a state Obama narrowly won in 2008 with just under 50 percent of the vote, was more evenly-contested, with Perdue winning with just over 50 percent.

Meanwhile, Republican incumbents won in Indiana and Vermont -- two states Obama notched in 2008. Mitch Daniels, a popular incumbent, won Indiana with ease, while Jim Douglas won a three-way race in the Green Mountain State without much difficulty.

(Updated: 3:25 p.m.)

The Undefeated, a documentary about Sarah Palin that portrays the former vice presidential candidate in a favorable light, will premiere in Iowa Tuesday.

Palin "has been invited to the premiere in Iowa," according to Keith Appell of CRC Public Relations, the firm handling publicity for the film. No word on whether the former Alaska governor will show at the evening screening in the historic opera house in Pella, Iowa, about 40 miles east of Des Moines.

Palin won't be the only one making news in the Hawkeye State next week: Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., is scheduled to officially kick off her presidential campaign in Waterloo on Monday morning. And Rep. Thad McCotter, R-Mich., who just reserved a spot at the Aug. 13 Iowa Straw Poll, will be headlining a tea party rally the same day in Ottumwa.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. A Perry joke falls flat, while Christie scores a major victory in New Jersey. Thompson and Baldwin inch toward a Senate bid, while bidding takes place for the Ames Straw Poll and includes ... Thad McCotter? Here's today's rundown:

10) Riggleman gone wild: The now-former Nats manager had a rough day yesterday. Hours after resigning from his team, he's seen here downing beers and livin' it up at a local Bethesda bar to drown away his sorrows. Can't make it up....

9) Big victory in the Garden State for Gov. Chris Christie: New Jersey lawmakers passed a rollback of benefits for 750,000 government workers and retirees, the deepest cut in state and local costs in memory, the New York Times reports.

It was a major milestone, with Christie seeing his sweeping budget reform bill pass with the support of key Democratic legislative leaders. It's a major accomplishment for Christie, not only in accomplishing a signature goal but also raises his national profile (he immediately went on the Today Show, and bragged about his accomplishment to the New York Times' Matt Bai.) His central message on television: it was the product of working together with Democrats - and he tried to use his experience to offer lessons for Congress.

The more immediate political impact, though, is less on his national aspirations and more towards his ability to win re-election as governor in 2013. The budget debate highlighted a split between the state party's Democratic leadership and party bosses, who were inclined to compromise, and the grassroots base and unions, who now view certain Democrats with as much enmity as Christie.

It's going to make it all the harder for the party to unite as they challenge the provocative governor in 2013. Christie may have national ambitions, but it's clear he's playing the long game, here.

8) How not to win an audience when addressing the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials: make a joke about how perfect it was to appoint Jose Cuevas to the Texas Alcoholic Beverage Commission because his name sounds like Jose Cuervo -- which is what Texas Gov. Rick Perry did Thursday. Not a winning line.

Jon Stewart doesn't think President Obama's troop withdraw announcement warranted an address to the nation, "It's not nothing but did you really have to walk all the way down the (bleep) hallway to do that? Couldn't you just shout it as you were walking by?"

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 1:25, Stephen Colbert doesn't want to see American get sucked into another quagmire.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump!

Rep. Jay Inslee, D-Wash., will announce next week that he will run for governor, a Democratic source confirmed to Hotline On Call.

Speculation has surrounded Inslee's interest in the race since Washington Democratic Gov. Chris Gregoire announced she wouldn't run for reelection early last week. Gregoire said she had encouraged Inslee to jump into the race to succeed her.

(RELATED: House Members Seeking Other Seats)

Attorney General Rob McKenna, who kicked off his campaign earlier this month, is considered the prohibitive favorite to win the Republican nomination. The state has not elected a Republican governor since 1980, but a match-up between McKenna and Inslee would be one of the premier gubernatorial contests of the cycle.

This won't be the first gubernatorial bid for Inslee, who finished fifth in the all-party primary in 1996. Inslee has represented the state's 1st district since 1999. He was first elected to the House in 1992 from the state's more conservative 4th district, but he lost his reelection bid to Republican Doc Hastings in 1994.

He has focused on technology policy during his tenure in the House, an important issue in his district, which has a significant Microsoft presence.

Inslee's decision to run for governor opens up his House seat, and already several Democrats have been looking to succeed him. Anticipating Inslee's gubernatorial plans, former state Rep. Laura Ruderman announced her candidacy for his seat earlier this month.

One Democratic strategist familiar with Washington state politics said former Congressional candidate Darcy Burner, a progressive activist, is also considering a campaign.

Inslee's suburban Seattle district is comfortably Democratic, giving President Obama 63 percent of the vote in 2008. But its lines will change during redistricting.

Updated at 4:02 p.m.

As we head deeper into the summer, the pace of the campaigns we cover regularly on this blog will likely slow. But in one state, high-stakes races will only be heating up. Wisconsin's recall elections -- which feature primaries likely to take place in July with final elections likely to happen in August -- will be the big summer electoral story. The following are some questions to bear in mind as the races progress. Stay tuned to Hotline On Call the rest of the summer for continuing coverage of the races, in which nationally relevant themes are likely to reverberate:

Can Democrats Win Back Control Of The State Senate?

Republicans hold a 19-14 advantage in the state Senate, so Democrats have to net three seats during the recall elections to take control of the chamber, and give them a chance of reversing the controversial measure pushed by Republicans that scaled back collective bargaining rights for public employees.

Six Republicans are up for recall elections while three Democrats face recall elections of their own. Originally, the Republican incumbents were supposed to have their elections on July 12, but a tactic employed by the GOP to run protest candidates against the Democratic challengers (triggering primaries) will likely push the elections back to August 9, with the Democratic primaries being held on July 12. The rationale behind the GOP move was that forcing the race back would give the GOP incumbents more time to prepare for the election.

Meanwhile, three Democrats are facing recall races, and in each, two Republican challengers are facing off in a primary likely to take place on July 19. The final elections for the Democrats will likely be August 16.

The National Republican Congressional Committee ended May with a 2-1 cash on hand advantage over the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, but DCCC Recruitment Chair Allyson Schwartz, D-Pa., says potential recruits worry more about GOP independent expenditures and attacks from outside groups.

"What they ask me about is the independent expenditures from the Republican side," Schwartz said during an Inside Politics Press Breakfast Thursday morning that was moderated by Bill Schneider at moderate think tank Third Way. "That is a concern to them."

"It's not a level playing field, and they worry about that," she said.

But Schwartz said she was okay with the rise of Democratic IEs in response to GOP-aligned groups.

"My preference would be to change the rules, but you're not going to be able to do that in the short term. So we have to live with what the rules are," she said.

She also noted that the DCCC is "ahead of where we planned to be" with recruiting and would have 10-15 new candidates by the end of July.

Schwartz was the first member of the Democratic House leadership to call for the resignation of former Rep. Anthony Weiner, D-N.Y., something she elaborated on Thursday.

"It's good to have it off the table," Schwartz said of the situation involving Weiner. "My statement and my position ... was very individual, not [an] orchestrated decision that I made," she added.

(Updated at 12:40 p.m.)

Trying to defuse another round of negative publicity, Tim Pawlenty's campaign insisted Thursday that the willingness of a handful of senior aides to work for little or no money does not reflect broader fundraising problems.

The campaign was responding to a Washington Post story that said at least five top advisers are foregoing the big paychecks typical of a national campaign.

Campaign spokesman Alex Conant made a distinction between campaign staffers and advisers; the former, he said, are being paid.

One of the advisers, Phil Musser, said he and a few others always planned to receive minimal compensation.

"We're all working for Tim Pawlenty because we believe in him,'' said Musser, noting that he and other top advisors have personally donated the maximum amount to the campaign. "This isn't about money. There's been no change in our approach since the beginning of the campaign.''

Pawlenty has been struggling to maintain his perch as a top competitor in the GOP presidential contest since he balked at confronting presumed frontrunner Mitt Romney during a nationally televised debate on June 13. Even Pawlenty himself acknowledged he should have been more direct, while his fellow Minnesotan, Michele Bachmann, received kudos for her spunky delivery. The unfavorable contrast came at a time when candidates are particularly eager to project strength as they approach the deadline for the three-month fundraising period that ends June 30.

Like all of his rivals, Pawlenty is working hard in the final days before the deadline to produce an impressive number. During the next week, he'll be criss-crossing the country to host fundraisers in Virginia, Texas, New York, Georgia and Florida.

Asked if Bachmann was cutting into Pawlenty's fundraising, Musser said, "The governor has had a very strong response from the Minnesota donor community. He's grateful for the support he's received from people who know him best.''

Jay Levy, Pawlenty's finance chairman in New Hampshire, also dismissed the idea that Bachmann was threatening Pawlenty, though he acknowledged a "tough economic environment'' for campaign fundraising.

"I think it's way too early to do any analysis on that since she just officially got into it,'' he said. "It's no secret that Mitt Romney has the largest coffers and everyone else is working on the momentum.''

Levy also defended Pawlenty's decision not to go on the attack in the first major debate of the campaign, though he acknowledged that televised events do create perceptions about the candidates.

"We can't control it if the press picks winners and losers,'' he said. "It's so early, and one of the things that attracted me to Pawlenty in the first place was that I think he's a tremendous leader who doesn't get into too much negativity.''

This week, Pawlenty became the first presidential candidate to go on the air in Iowa, with a $50,000 television ad buy in the first-caucus state, confirming its importance to his campaign strategy.

The first public measure of where the candidates stand will come Saturday, when the Des Moines Register releases its first Iowa Poll of the year.

The Register contracts with Selzer & Co., a highly-regarded Des Moines-based polling firm that has delivered surprisingly accurate predictions of where the Caucus stands in recent years.

In 2007, just days before the January 3 caucuses, the Register pegged then-Sen. Barack Obama as the leader by seven points, based on projections of record-breaking turnout. When Caucus night rolled around, Obama won by eight points, amid record-breaking turnout (Pollster Ann Selzer also nailed the GOP race, predicting former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee would win by six; he won by nine).

That just makes us wonder: Did former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty's team know the poll was in the field? Launching a television ad to influence the poll would be a smart move.

Democratic and Republican Members of Congress differ on how likely Congress is to cut off funding for U.S. military operations in Libya according to this week's National Journal Congressional Insiders Poll. Democrats overwhelmingly believe Congress won't block the funds while a slim majority of Republicans think it will.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. President Obama lays out his withdrawal plan for Afghanistan while the GOP divide on Libya and overseas intervention is front and center in Congress. Also -- The Hotline's latest presidential rankings are released with Perry showing strength. Plus, do any Republicans want to run against Stabenow? Here's today's rundown:

8) As Carolyn Goodman prepares to be sworn in as mayor of Las Vegas, taking over for her husband Oscar Goodman, the New York Times takes a look at the two: Mrs. Goodman is not Mr. Goodman, even after 49 years of marriage. It is hard to imagine her telling a class of fourth graders that all she required on a desert island was a bottle of gin. ("They had no idea what I was talking about," Mr. Goodman protested weakly as his wife recalled a moment "that made me want to slide under the couch.") Or delivering a State of the City address flanked by two Las Vegas showgirls, as Mr. Goodman did in January.

7) Heads up: The first Des Moines Register poll of Iowa Republicans, conducted by Selzer and Co., is out Saturday night at 10 p.m. EST.

6) At least five top advisers to former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty have been working for little or no pay for several months, according to the Washington Post. The news raises questions about Pawlenty's upcoming fundraising numbers. A weak quarter will continue to raise the urgency level at Pawlenty HQ - with Huntsman and Perry likely to get into the race, the space for a credible Romney challenger has gotten a lot more crowded.

Despite the self-imposed deadline of July 1 set by the bipartisan group of lawmakers led by Vice President Joe Biden to craft a deficit-reduction plan, a majority of Democratic and Republican Members of Congress doubt that target will be met for the holiday weekend, according to this week's National Journal Congressional Insiders Poll.

Jon Stewart talks with puppet Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., about his comments on wildfires being started by illegal immigrants. Puppet McCain: "Mexican's start fires. They're fire starters."

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 0:30, Texas Gov. Rick Perry is out of touch with new forms of media.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump!

The extended jousting between Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., and a long-shot Democratic Senate candidate from his home state, Byron Georgiou, continued Wednesday, capped by Georgiou's resignation from the board of a Nevada company.

The developments were the latest escalation in an intra-party fight in which Reid appears to be trying to clear the field for Rep. Shelley Berkley, D-Nev., the Democratic front-runner in the race to challenge Sen. Dean Heller, R-Nev.

On Tuesday, Reid said he regretted naming Georgiou two years ago to the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission -- a ten-member body that was tasked with investigating the causes of the economic crisis -- because he feels was misled about Georgiou's credentials. Reid said that's why he's raising doubts publicly about Georgiou's Senate candidacy.

"I think it has something to do with running for the Senate because it dramatizes how he misled me and everyone," Reid said Tuesday, according to the Las Vegas Review-Journal.

On Wednesday, it was clear that Reid's criticism was beginning to take its toll. The president of Xtreme Green Products Inc. announced Wednesday afternoon that Georgiou had resigned from that the company's board.

Updated at 4:33 p.m.

More than a week after announcing that she had filed presidential candidacy papers, Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., will kick off her campaign in Waterloo, Iowa, on June 27, at 9 a.m. Central Time, according to a release from her campaign. In the days following, she will set out on a three-day tour through the early voting states: Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.

On Tuesday, Bachmann will hold a backyard chat in Manchester, N.H., followed by a meet and greet with supporters in Myrtle Beach, S.C. She'll hold a backyard chat in Charleston Wednesday morning, followed by meet and greet events in Lexington and Greenville. Bachmann will cap her day with a town hall meeting at Winthrop University in Rock Hill on Wednesday evening.

Though Bachmann's official entrance into the race comes later than the rest of the field, her candidacy has for weeks (for some, even months) been considered a foregone conclusion.

Bachmann first mentioned last month that her announcement would be in Waterloo, the location of her birth and the heart of the retail caucus state in which she is expected to compete heavily.

Citing a slow economic recovery and poor advertising revenues, Gannett Co. Inc., owner of USA Today, announced Tuesday that it would be laying off about 700 employees, which represents two percent of their overall workforce.

The approximately 700 employees come from Gannett's Community Publishing division which contains nearly 80 daily local newspapers. USA Today, which saw big cuts in 2010, will not be subjected to layoffs this time around.

"As we reach the mid-point of the year, the economic recovery is not happening as quickly or favorably as we had hoped and continues to impact our U.S. community media organizations," wrote Robert J. Dickey, president of the community-publishing division, in an email to employees. "While we are seeing improved circulation results and audience growth, weakness in the real estate sector, slow job creation and now softer auto ad demand continue to challenge revenue growth in the division."

The papers affected include: the Arizona Republic, Rochester Democrat and Chronicle, Des Moines Register, Fort Collins Coloradoan, Louisville Courier-Journal, Fort Meyers News-Press, Pensacola News Journal, Springfield News-Leader, and The Tennessean, to name a few.

According to the Indianapolis Business Journal, the Indianapolis Star laid off sixty-two employees. Fifteen percent of that was coming from newsroom cuts. The Courier-Journal, in Louisville, Ky., reported that fifty employees -- about ten percent of its staff - had been laid off.

As he continues to mull a White House bid, Texas Gov. Rick Perry has committed to heading to the Granite State in October, further fueling speculation the Republican is inching toward a national run.

Perry will be the keynote speaker at conservative group Cornerstone Action's annual gala in New Hampshire, according to a release the group issued Wednesday. The dinner and awards banquet is slated for October 28th at the Radisson Hotel and Convention Center in Manchester.

"Governor Perry has been a model example of both fiscal and social conservative leadership for the rest of the nation. Not to mention, he has also overseen the most robust economy of any state over the last decade," said Cornerstone Action Executive Director Kevin Smith in the release. "We are honored to welcome this proud Texan to the Live Free of Die state for what will no doubt be a great evening."

Smith is a major player in New Hampshire GOP politics. In 2010, former Sen. Rick Santorum, R.-Pa., and businessman Herman Cain were the keynote speakers at the organization's dinner.

Perry's chief strategist Dave Carney recently indicated Perry is about 50-50 on a presidential run and is weeks away from making a decision.

Ronald Reagan asked Americans in 1980 if they were better off than they were four years prior -- an argument that resonated deeply and helped him defeat Jimmy Carter that November. President Obama could be vulnerable to a similar argument, according to a new Bloomberg News poll released early Thursday.

A plurality of Americans say they are worse off than they were at the start of 2009, when Obama took office amid a deepening economic recession. Overall, 44 percent of Americans say they are worse off, 34 percent say they are better off, and 21 percent volunteered that they were neither better nor worse.

Only 30 percent of Americans (and 31 percent of likely voters) say they will definitely vote for Obama in 2012. The percentage of those who would definitely vote for another candidate is 36 percent among all adults, but 40 percent among a subsample of self-identified likely voters; 27 percent of all adults and 24 percent of likely voters say they would consider another candidate.

One bright spot for the White House amid an avalanche of bad data: Americans are slightly more worried about Republicans winning in 2012 and implementing "their proposed cuts to Medicare, Medicaid and many other domestic programs" than about Democrats winning and continuing "their current spending policies."

Overall, 49 percent of Americans approve of the job Obama is doing as president, while 44 percent disapprove. That is down from a 51-percent approval rating in March.

The Bloomberg poll was conducted June 17-20 by Iowa-based pollster Selzer & Co. The poll surveyed 1,000 adults, for a margin of error +/- 3.1 percent. There were 741 likely voters, for a margin of error +/- 3.6 percent.

The three Democratic state senators facing recall elections in Wisconsin will likely not appear on the ballot until August due to active GOP primaries in every race, a development expected to push the election back from its originally scheduled date of July 19.

Tuesday was the filing deadline for the three races, in which Democratic state Sens. Dave Hansen, Robert Wirch and Jim Holperin face recall elections. Two Republicans qualified in each of the three races.

The recall elections for the Democrats - whom Republicans targeted because they left the state in an attempt to prevent a vote on a bill that curtails public employee collective bargaining rights - were originally slated for July 19, but will almost certainly be held instead on August 16, to allow time for GOP primaries occur on July 19.

Each race has attracted two Republican candidates. The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel has a rundown of the GOP challengers here. The Democrats don't face primary challenges. The state GOP has not yet made endorsements of any of the GOP challengers.

Less than six months into his mayorality, Democratic Washington, D.C. Mayor Vincent Gray's favorability has plummeted, according to a Washington Post/Kaiser Family Foundation poll that also shows that Gray has thus far fallen short of his pledge to unify the District as "One City," regardless of race, class or neighborhood.

The poll, released Sunday, also shows that an early point in his four-year term, Gray is in danger of suffering the same fate as the man he defeated in last year's Democratic primary, then-Mayor Adrian Fenty. Gray bested Fenty last September, 54 percent to 44 percent, in a race that split the city largely on racial lines.

So how did the District sour on their new mayor after only a few months? And what, if anything, can Gray do to regain the popularity that swept him into office -- and swept out an incumbent who a majority thought was leading the city in the right direction?

"I think the barrage of [negative] stories have clearly taken their toll," said Mo Elleithee, a Democratic strategist who advised the Gray campaign.

The newly-elected mayor began to run into trouble in early March when the District's Office of Campaign Finance and the city's Investigator General launched investigations into allegations that he paid gadfly mayoral candidate Sulaimon Brown to criticize Fenty during the campaign. Brown alleged that the Gray campaign had paid him to attack Fenty and offered him a $110,000 per year job in a potential Gray administration.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Huntsman's officially in the presidential mix, but don't expect him to weigh in on the Utah Senate race. Meanwhile, Pawlenty takes to the airwaves in Iowa while Crossroads hits McCaskill in a radio ad. And Al Gore levels criticism at President Obama in a Rolling Stone article. Here's today's Sort:

10) "And I said, what about a second line of credit at Tiffany's." Okay, that's not quite how the Deep Blue Something song goes, but it's a tune Newt Gingrich could hum, as his camapign acknowledged Tuesday he had a second line of credit -- which has been paid in full -- for as much as a million dollars.

That, along with the news that he's lost two of his top fundraisers, makes you wonder how much longer his presidential campaign can sustain itself. His fundraising report, due next month, will put a number on his campaign's woes.

9) Al Gore is coming out with a lengthy op-ed in Rolling Stone, where he sharply criticizes President Obama on his handling of the environment. In the article out Friday, Gore says that Obama has failed to stand up for "bold action" on global warming and has made little progress on the problem since the days of Republican President George W. Bush.

He also criticizes Obama's handling of Libya, saying the president has "simply not made the case for action." Sounds like Gore's becoming a symbol of a restless liberal base.

8) Christine O'Donnell will try to jump back into the spotlight with the release of her book, "Troublemaker: Let's Do What It Takes to Make America Great Again." In an email obtained by Hotline On Call that was sent to her PAC Tuesday, O'Donnell promised supporters to reveal "the real, raw story of my life," claiming that her closest advisers had concerns she was being "too honest, too open" while writing about her "bumpy journey into politics."

7) American Crossroads is hitting Sen. Claire McCaskill, D-Mo., with a $50,000 radio ad buy, Politico reports. The ad says McCaskill "has been using a body double" to cast her votes in the Senate, calling her a "big spending liberal" that has said she opposes more taxes and spending.

The ad is a reminder that even as the Missouri GOP field has been lackluster of late, and McCaskill has avoided negative headlines since the situation involving her plane that caused he much strife earlier this year, Republicans will continue to have a very close eye on her seat.

Stephen Colbert found the perfect generic Republican candidate on his way to work, "He's got everything you want. He's got a strong stride ... Plus he's a family man."

Jimmy Kimmel on Jon Huntsman running for president, "Most Americans know Jon Huntsman as the candidate who most American's don't know."

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward 1:40, Jon Stewart isn't the only one who's misinformed.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump.

(Updated at 8:28 p.m.)

Grover Norquist has had a tough week. First, his call for the Senate to reject a repeal of ethanol tax credits was ignored by a majority of Republican senators. Then, the influential GOP strategist found himself dropped from Mitt Romney's dance card.

Romney's campaign just released a list of the next six debates in which the presumed GOP presidential front runner plans to participate. Notably absent: a July 10 face off planned for the Conservative Leadership Conference in Nevada , and co-sponsored by Norquist's Americans for Tax Reform and the Daily Caller. Romney's announcement came the same day that debate organizers announced a partnership with YouTube.

Norquist ended up on the losing end of an ethanol debate that developed into a nasty spat between two of Washington's leading deficit hawks. Norquist, who has convened weekly meetings of Washington's conservative movers and shakers for decades, opposed the ethanol tax credit repeal as a tax hike. But Sen. Tom Coburn of Oklahoma, along with 28 other GOP colleagues, ignored Norquist's admonitions to vote in favor of repeal. A Norquist aide insists it wasn't a defeat: he's fine with repealing the ethanol tax credit as long as the mandate to use ethanol is repealed at the same time. Absent that, it's a tax increase -- a no-no in Norquist's view.

Meanwhile, Romney, who has dropped hints (most significantly his decision to skip the August Iowa straw poll) that his campaign is giving short-shrift to the first-caucus state, will nonetheless participate in an Aug. 11 debate in Iowa, cosponsored by Fox News and the state GOP.

Other debates on his itinerary: Sept. 7 at the Ronald Reagan Library in California (NBC and Politico); Sept. 12 in Tampa (CNN and Tea Party Express); Sept. 22 in Orlando (Fox and the state GOP); Oct. 11 in Hanover, N.H. (The Washington Post and Bloomberg) and Oct. 18 in Las Vegas (CNN and Western Republican Leadership Conference).

South Carolina Democratic Party Chair Dick Harpootlian derided former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman Tuesday as a Republican imposter in advance of a Wednesday visit by the newly minted presidential candidate.

The call was part of a chorus from Democratic party officials from around the country in the wake of Huntsman's official presidential campaign announcement Tuesday. The Democratic strategy is obvious: to hammer at the inconsistencies in Huntsman's record - particularly his backtracking on cap-and-trade - and tar him with the same flip-flop label that has dogged the Republican frontrunner, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

One of Huntsman's biggest vulnerabilities is that he worked for Obama as his ambassador to China until just two months ago.

"We always welcome Obama administation officials to South Carolina, and just a few weeks ago Jon Huntsman was one of them,'' Harpootlian quipped. "He took a job from Obama and now he's lamenting the fact that Obama drove the country into a ditch?''

He added: "Welcome to South Carolina Jon Huntsman, hopefully where you'll get your head straight.''

An official with former House Speaker Newt Gingrich's campaign confirmed Tuesday that two members of the fundraising team, including the fundraising director, have left the campaign, another blow to the former House speaker's already struggling White House bid.

The departures were first reported by the Associated Press.

Jody Thomas, the campaign's fundraising director, and Mary Heitman, a fundraising consultant, are no longer a part of Gingrich's candidacy, spokesman R.C. Hammond told Hotline On Call. Their defections come less than two weeks after most of the candidate's senior staff suddenly resigned en masse, a move that raised questions about how long Gingrich's campaign can continue.

Hammond vowed that the campaign will go on. Gingrich has scheduled an appearance in Iowa this Saturday.

However, the departure of two finance staffers, 10 days before the deadline for presidential campaigns to file second quarter fundraising results, will only increase speculation that the former congressman from Georgia doesn't have enough money for the long haul.

Hammond insisted that Gingrich still has enough staffers committed to raising money "online, on paper, over the phone, and in person." More than a dozen people remain on Gingrich's campaign, Hammond said.

(Updated at 2:03 p.m.)

For the first time, President Obama's campaign responded to the entrance of a Republican candidate into the race with a short statement today following former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman's campaign launch.

The response, a critique of Huntsman's economic policies, signals that the White House takes Huntsman's campaign seriously. A former Republican governor of Utah, Huntsman served as Obama's ambassador to China until his resignation two months ago.

"In his speech, Governor Huntsman called for a more competitive and compassionate country, but he has embraced a budget plan that would slash our commitment to education, wipe out investments that will foster the jobs of the future and extend tax cuts for the richest Americans while shifting the burden onto seniors and middle class families," the Obama campaign statement said. "Like the other Republican candidates, instead of proposing a plan that will allow middle class families to reclaim their economic security, Governor Huntsman is proposing a return to the failed economic policies that led us into the recession."

Most of Huntsman's rivals for the presidential nomination maintained radio silence in the hours immediately following his announcement. In an interview on Fox News Channel's Happening Now, former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty echoed Huntsman's courteous tone. He said Huntsman "will be a great new voice in the debate" and called both him and Texas Gov. Rick Perry, another potential presidential candidate, "friends of mine."

One striking exception to the welcome wagon: former Sen. Rick Santorum. The Pennsylvania Republican marked Huntsman's entrance into the field with a parody of the Utahn's motocross videos.

In sight of the Statue of Liberty and a fluttering flag, Jon Huntsman officially launched his presidential campaign Tuesday with a paean to American democracy and opportunity and a vow to run a courteous campaign against his fellow Republicans and former boss, President Obama.

(RELATED: Is Jon Huntsman the Un-Republican?)

Huntsman made the widely anticipated announcement in Liberty State Park in Jersey City, inviting comparisons to Ronald Reagan, who commenced his White House bid in the same place more than three decades ago. Huntsman is scheduled to travel later Tuesday to New Hampshire, where he is counting on the nation's first primary to help propel him to his party's nomination.

The campaign rollout continues over the next three days with Huntsman making appearances in the pivotal battlegrounds of South Carolina, Florida, Utah and Nevada.

Huntsman, 51, returned from China just eight weeks ago after serving a two and half year stint as U.S. ambassador. He was elected to two terms as governor of Utah and worked in the first Bush and Reagan administrations. President Obama's overseas appointment was viewed as a gesture toward bi-partisanship as well as a clever maneuver to dispatch a potential political rival. It didn't work, but Huntsman noted his respect for the president in Tuesday's speech.

(PICTURES: Meet the GOP Presidential Hopefuls)

"I don't think you need to run down anyone's reputation to run for president," he said. "The question each of us wants the voters to answer is who will be the better president, not who's the better American."

Less than half of California voters are inclined to re-elect Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., according to a new Field poll that shows her approval ratings well below her normal levels of support.

Just 43 percent of Golden State voters say they are inclined to re-elect Feinstein, down from 46 percent in March. But the March figure represented a significant decline in support from previous re-election cycles: In June 2005, 56 percent of voters were inclined to re-elect Feinstein, and in March 1999, that number was 59 percent.

Nearly as many voters -- 39 percent -- say there are not inclined to re-elect Feinstein, also down slightly from March (42 percent). Nearly one-in-five voters are undecided.

Despite the continued slide in her re-election numbers -- and a lagging economy -- a healthier plurality of voters approves of the job she is doing: 46 percent of voters approve of Feinstein, while 31 percent disapprove.

"Her job ratings are still holding up, so it's not something that she's actually done that's angered the voting public," Field Poll director Mark DiCamillo told the Sacramento Bee. "I just think they're in the mood for some change."

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Feinstein's numbers are close to the danger zone, Christie hits an all-time low in New Jersey, Obama courts the Jewish vote while Jon Huntsman kicks off his campaign and defends his work for the president. Here's today's rundown:

10. Former Ambassador and Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman will make it official at Liberty Park in New Jersey on Tuesday morning, formally announcing his campaign for president.

In his speech, he addresses the thorny issue of serving under President Obama as Ambassador to China and now seeking to run against him.

"I don't think you need to run down anyone's reputation to run for President," Huntsman is slated to say, according to excerpts of the speech provided by the campaign. "Of course we'll have our disagreements. I respect my fellow Republican candidates. And I respect the President. He and I have a difference of opinion on how to help the country we both love. But the question each of us wants the voters to answer is who will be the better President; not who's the better American."

9. Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., scores among the lowest approval ratings in her career in the newly-released Field Poll. Her popularity has dipped substantially over the last year, with just 43 percent saying they'd support her, and 39 percent wanting someone else. Her job approval rating is a more respectable 46 percent, with 31 percent disapproving.

"With Feinstein, we've never seen these kinds of numbers before, where it's so close," Field Poll director Mark DiCamillo told the San Francisco Chronicle. A likely source of voters' dissatisfaction: Feinstein represents a state with one of the highest unemployment rates in the country.

8. A new Quinnipiac poll shows Gov. Chris Christie, R-N.J, down to his lowest job approval of his tenure - 44 percent. There's a major gender gap in how he's viewed - 53 percent of men approve of his job, while just 36 percent of women feel the same.

7. George Allen's primary challenger Jamie Radtke, who has been courting Tea Party support in her underdog Virginia Senate campaign, appears in Sarah Palin's new movie, "The Undefeated." In the movie, she says Palin is "not a member of the permanent political establishment."

President Obama and House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, bond during the "golf summit."

Jon Stewart suggests watching the unedited versions of his interview with Chris Wallace on Fox News Sunday.

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 1:00, when Obama and Boehner share a tender moment on the golf course.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump!

The National Republican Congressional Committee ended May with double the cash on hand as their Democratic counterparts. According to monthly reports filed with the Federal Election Commission on Monday, the NRCC closed the month with $10.6 million in the bank, compared to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's $5.3 million.

The NRCC also outraised the DCCC for a third consecutive month, pulling in $4.6 million during May, while the DCCC raised $3.8 million. In April, both committees raised roughly $4 million.

The DCCC has less debt recorded than the NRCC -- $6.6 million in the red, compared to the NRCC's $7 million. The DCCC paid down $666,000 of its debt last month, while the NRCC paid off $500,000.

But the Democrats' House campaign arm has a narrow fundraising edge for the whole year, bringing in $27.4 million so far this cycle, while the GOP committee has raised $26.8 million.

(Updated at 4:46 p.m.)

Women seeking election in 2012 enjoy more gender-driven political benefits than ever before, a new study by the Barbara Lee Family Foundation shows; unfortunately for them, voter awareness of that advantage is causing it to backfire.

It's a double-edged sword, said Lee (no relation to the congresswoman of the same name) in a conference call on Monday. Because recent female candidates have been particularly "strong, vivid women," she said, citing Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., "people see that and say, 'What's the problem?'"

In fact, women remain woefully underrepresented in political office and have dropped from their high-water mark in terms of their representation in both Congress and governorships, according to the Center for Women and Politics.

For the study, which comes in a year that women have stepped up in big numbers to run for Congress (the latest: Nevada Treasurer Kate Marshall, expected to win the Democratic nomination for a special House race this weekend), Lee Family Foundation commissioned a bipartisan team of pollsters conduct pre- and post-election surveys and focus groups with voters in eight states where there were women running for governor last year.

Among the conclusions:

*Women no longer are automatically viewed as innate agents of change - "rare, outside the political process, and likely to reform it when they were on the inside" - as one focus group participant said. Typical was a comment by other focus group members who said that view is no longer valid. "Not anymore. Not anymore," said one. Added another: "Not as much as it used to be, but a little bit still."

*"Likability" remains women's biggest edge with voters, with the fact that many voters give women the edge when it comes to ethics and morals - a tendency that isn't likely to change in the wake of recent misbehavior by male ex-Reps. Anthony Weiner and Chris Lee and ex-Sen. John Ensign. But because they place female candidates on a higher moral pedestal, voters frown upon and penalize women who engage in negative campaigning. "It's such a double bind," Lee said.

*That doesn't mean women shouldn't run negative campaigns, Lee added. "They are necessary parts of the process," she added. But she recommended that candidates "take steps to avoid [the backlash], like having someone else use their voice to record the negative ads."

*One piece of good news for women running in 2012. Women who describe themselves as political independents were more likely than their male independents to vote for a woman of either party - giving women a potential edge with a growing group of voters who don't affiliate with either Democrats or Republicans.

(An earlier version of his post misidentified the race in which Marshall is expected to run. She is expected to be the Democratic nominee in the special election for a Nevada congressional seat)

Frank Beckmann's voice may be synonymous with Michigan Wolverines football and morning radio on Detroit station WJR, but he won't be the voice of the Republican case against Sen. Debbie Stabenow, D-Mich., in 2012, he announced Monday.

Beckmann said on his radio show Monday morning that he won't be a Senate candidate. Michigan Live reported that Beckmann indicated two main factors in his decision: The fact that he'd have to register as a Republican, which he's never done, and a rule forcing him to quit his radio show and end his tenure as the voice of the Wolverines.

Beckmann is only the latest in a string of Republicans deciding against challenging Stabenow. He follows in the footsteps of former state GOP chair Saul Anuzis, former Rep. Pete Hoekstra, R-Mich., and former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land.

Former juvenile court judge Randy Hekman, businessman Peter Konetchy and self-described conservative constitutionalist Chad Dewey are the Republicans in the race right now, but none are viewed as serious threats to Stabenow.

When Anuzis declared he was not running, he wrote on his blog that he has encouraged Beckmann, Cornerstone Schools co-founder Clark Durant and Oakland County Drain Commissioner John McCullough to run.

Meanwhile, some Michigan Republicans have been recruiting a retired Detroit Red Wings player whose identity remains a mystery.

The Democratic National Committee raised $10.5 million during the month of May, but over 60 percent of the haul was a transfer from the Obama Victory Fund, a joint fundraising account between the DNC and the President Obama's reelection campaign.

$6.5 million of the committee's total haul came from the OVF transfer. Meanwhile, the Republican National Committee raised $6.2 million during the same month, ending with $6.1 million cash on hand. The DNC ended May with $16.5 million in the bank.

The DNC carried $13.5 million in debt at the end of May, while the RNC's debt load stood at $18.5 million.

CNN Chief White House correspondent Ed Henry is leaving the network that he has called home for seven years. Henry will move to Fox News, where he will retain the same title he held at CNN.

Fox News Senior Vice President of News Editorial Michael Clemente announced Henry's move to Fox News on Monday. Henry will be responsible for covering all facets of the White House, including the president's domestic and international activities, according a release from the network.

Deadline.com first reported the news.

"After seven years at CNN it is bittersweet for me to say I've landed a terrific opportunity elsewhere that I am absolutely thrilled about," wrote Henry in an email to friends and CNN staff obtained by Hotline On Call. "But first I just want to say thank you for what has been a wild ride for me, from the beginning of my tenure when I was in the anchor chair when Robert Novak walked off-set -- right up until the night a few weeks ago I raced from a Capitals playoff hockey game to the White House to report through the night on the killing of Osama bin Laden."

Henry also thanked CNN anchors Wolf Blitzer, Candy Crowley, John King, Anderson Cooper, Ali Velshi, Kyra Phillips, TJ Holmes, Don Lemon, and Robin Meade.

"We thank Ed for his contributions and wish him the best. We will be naming our new chief White House correspondent in the coming days," a CNN spokesperson said.

With Henry's move, Wendell Goler and Mike Emanuel, who have been sharing White House duties for Fox News, will assume new titles. Goler has been promoted to senior White House and Foreign Affairs correspondent. Emanuel has been named chief Congressional correspondent.

Check out Henry's full email after the jump.

Updated at 11:40 a.m.

As Jon Huntsman gears up for the opening of his presidential campaign headquarters in Orlando this week, he has tapped three well-known political consultants to help steer his Florida operation.

David Johnson, a former executive director of the Republican Party of Florida, has worked on slew of campaigns and ballot initiatives in the state. He helped oversee the Presidency III straw poll won by Bob Dole, an experience that could be valuable to the Huntsman team as it competes in the Presidency V straw poll in September.

Marc Reichelderfer was a consultant to Mitt Romney's campaign in Florida in 2008 and has close ties to state Sen. John Thrasher, the former state party chairman, who has endorsed Romney. He has advised the state GOP's House and Senate campaign committees and helped elect a number of lawmakers, including House Speaker Dean Cannon. The disgraced former chairman of the state GOP, Jim Greer, said last year that Reichelderfer had offered him a payoff to keep quiet about a secret severance deal -- - a claim he denied.

Alex W. Castellanos Jr., is the son of the veteran GOP media consultant with the same name to the Bush family. He is a partner at Purple Strategies.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. As Huntsman gears up for to announce his presidential bid, Perry's advisers assess the biggest challenges to a possible late entry into the race. Meanwhile, Amodei takes to the airwaves in Nevada and a new Utah poll spells more trouble for Hatch. Here's today's rundown:

8) NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg's mother Charlotte Bloomberg has died at the age of 102.

7) Fresh off winning his party's nomination for Nevada's 2nd District special election Saturday, former state GOP chair Mark Amodei is up with a new television ad, voicing his opposition to raising the debt limit and arguing that doing so would embolden China.

"Once upon a time, America became their own worst enemy. When all their borrowed money ran out, they kept spending," a Chinese newsanchor says in the ad. "As their debt grew, our fortune grew. That is how our great empire rose again." The ad closes with an image of Chinese troops marching on the U.S. Capitol, as Amodei says "it's not too late to stop this nightmare."

6) The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee outraised the National Republican Senatorial Committee in May, bringing in $4.1 million dollars to the NRSC's $3.1 million. As Hotline On Call first reported earlier this month, the NRSC has paid off its debt; the DSCC, meanwhile, did not indicate its level of debt after May (they owed $4.3 million as of the end of April). Democrats have outraised Republicans for the 2012 election cycle and have a cash on hand advantage. The DSCC had $7.8 million in the bank as of June 1, while the NRSC had $1.77 million.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is the definitive Republican front runner in the presidential race, but Bill Maher is worried that Romney might stick his foot in his mouth.

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 0:45 when Jay Leno reflects on, "the man and his junk."

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump!

What we at The Hotline learned this week:

-- Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty had a very bad week. He started strong, blasting "ObamneyCare" on Fox News Sunday, then backed off the next day at the GOP debate. Then he bizarrely returned to the attack by Thursday. Which is it, TPaw? Are you Minnesota Nice or not? Circling back suggests his donors want to see an attack dog, not a friendly guy.

-- We hope everyone enjoyed the collegial nature of Monday's Republican presidential debate, because the gloves are beginning to come off - and quickly. With Pawlenty finally going on the attack against former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, it's now just a matter of time before their fellow Republicans are engaging in direct assaults on their rivals' records. In many ways the GOP field has for months been taking its cues from Pawlenty, who has been the most vocal proponent of observing Reagan's 11th commandment. And just as the other candidates followed Pawlenty's pacifistic lead during the New Hampshire debate, look for them to follow him into internecine warfare now that the first serious shots have been fired.

-- Attention Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn.: Another reason it can be risky for House members to run for president is that their constituents can get cranky at having to share. Rep. Dennis Kucinich's, R-Ohio, re-election percentages fell 14 points from 2002 to 2004 and by 9 points from 2006 to 2008 after his failed presidential bids. And Bob Dornan, R-Calif., lost re-election in 1996 after his own quixotic quest for the presidency. Perhaps this is why Reps. Duncan Hunter, R-Calif., Tom Tancredo, R-Colo., John Kasich, R-Ohio, and Dick Gephardt, R-Mo., (the second time) never ran for the House again after announcing for president.

True, Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, escaped any Democratic opposition in 2008, but he hadn't actually lost the GOP nomination by the time Texas' early filing deadline had rolled around that year. Bachmann won't have that luxury in 2012, nor will she have a district identical to the one she already represents.

-- Former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman is pursuing a high-risk, high-reward strategy by launching his campaign in New Jersey, a liberal state that plays an inconsequential role in the Republican nominating process. There could be a method to his madness, however: On the one hand, early state voters love to be catered to, and Huntsman could be missing a golden opportunity to earn goodwill in Florida or New Hampshire. On the other hand, Huntsman is running as a non-conventional candidate who's willing to ignore GOP orthodoxy in hopes of appealing to a broader swath of the electorate, including conservative Democrats in places like the northeast. It's no coincidence, then, that Huntsman will kick off his campaign at Liberty Park - the same location Ronald Reagan used in 1980.

-- The FEC can ask all it wants for American Crossroads' donor lists. It's not going to get them. Any action the commission takes must have the support of at least one Republican commissioner, and those commissioners are indicating they won't even support newly proposed disclosure rules. Any action against an outside group is almost certainly off the table.

MINNEAPOLIS -- Is this Republican presidential campaign big enough for two Minnesotans?

It's a tricky question at the RightOnline conference in Minneapolis, where some 1500 conservative activists have gathered to hone their internet organizing chops and be wooed by conservative organizations and office-seekers, including two home-grown presidential candidates: Former Governor Tim Pawlenty and Rep. Michele Bachmann, who represents the state's sixth Congressional district.

This early in the race, support hasn't solidified around any one candidate. Bachmann's hard-hitting style attracts activists' hearts and Pawlenty's selling card is electability.

Pawlenty, whose second term ended last year, offers the traditional package for a presidential candidate: A television ad-ready narrative of a blue-collar upbringing, time governing as a conservative in a left-leaning state, and a coterie of top Republican strategists to run a campaign predicated on his willingness to make tough fiscal choices.

Bachmann, on the other hand, has found herself running for president almost by accident. An evangelical Christian in her third term in the House, she proudly touts her five children and 23 others she cared for as a foster parent. Following President Obama's election, she became an ardent supporter of the Tea Party movement - and the founder of the congressional Tea Party Caucus. That, and her willingness to stand up to her own party's leadership has made her a grassroots favorite and fundraising powerhouse.

"Tim Pawlenty has a really good message, his truth-telling platform will resonate," Beka Romm, came to the conference from Topeka, Kansas, said. "Michelle Bachmann is a fascinating figure. People really like her story."

But if her tea party momentum made exploring a run practically inevitable for Bachmann, her official entry into the contest -- announced live during this week's debate in New Hampshire -- left home state pols, activists and nominating delegates nervous about being caught in a tug of war.

After Pawlenty rescheduled his speech at RightOnline from a morning session that he would have shared with Bachmann to a time later in the afternoon, and Bachmann's speech, though well-received, went about fifteen minutes longer than expected, activists speculated about gamesmanship between the two candidates. (Both campaigns declined to comment for this story.)

Tensions are running higher after the Granite State debate. Pawlenty got bad marks failing to challenge former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney on health care issues, while Bachmann exceeded expectations with a poised performance.

At RightOnline, activists have plenty of praise for Pawlenty, but the locals at the conference express some measure of reluctance about seeing their ex-governor on a bigger stage.

"Bachmann is more of a tea party candidate, she sticks on principle and represents my values," Mark Ford of Shakopee, Minnesota, said after her speech. "Pawlenty was a good governor but I don't think he has the national appeal Republicans probably need."

"With Michelle, you are going to get what she says," says Republican Minnesota state Rep. Mary Franson, who hasn't made up her mind whom she'll support. "Pawlenty, on the other hand, is a little more watered down."

A bystander interjects with a complaint about Pawlenty's change of mind on energy -- the governor supported a regional greenhouse gas reduction policy to combat climate change before reversing himself. Franson herself wasn't pleased that Pawlenty left it to the new Democratic governor, Mark Dayton, to decide whether Minnesota should opt for early participation in the new health care law's Medicaid provisions. Dayton promptly signed the state up.

So far, Pawlenty and Bachmann have steered clear of each other, even avoiding mentioning the other's name in their speeches, to focus their critiques on President Obama. But should both still be in the race when primary and caucus season begins, voters around the country will see what happens when Minnesotans stop playing nice.

NEW ORLEANS, La.--Republican activists have waited all week to see a front-running presidential candidate. When Texas Gov. Rick Perry took the stage Saturday, they may have finally gotten their glimpse.

(PICTURES: GOP Presidential Hopefuls)

In a 20-minute address to about 2,000 activists at the Republican Leadership Conference, Perry decried the Obama administration and even Republicans he blamed for "apologizing" while touting his own record with remarks that sounded conspicuously like a stump speech.

(RELATED: Paul Wins Straw Poll; Absent Huntsman is 2nd)

"This administration in Washington that's in power now clearly believes that government is not only the answer to every need, but it's the most qualified to make the most central decisions for every American in every area," Perry said. He called Obama's approach to the economy "an affront to every freedom-loving American and a threat to every private sector job in this country."

From National Journal:
PICTURES: Obama and Boehner on Golf Course

Who's Who in the Deficit Talks

9 Prominent Fathers in American Politics

PICTURES: Where in the World is Michelle Obama?

PICTURES: Mercury's Reputation May Get a Boost Thanks to MESSENGER

"I stand before you today as a disciplined, conservative Texan, a committed Republican and a proud American, united with you in the desire to restore our nation and revive the American dream," he said.

(RELATED: Minnesota Twins: Bachmann, Pawlenty Compete)

Though he has adamantly denied an interest in running for president for years, Perry's attitude has changed in recent weeks. He has reportedly dispatched aides to Iowa to feel out the political situation in the home of the crucial first caucus. Now, his biggest supporters believe he is likely to enter the presidential race.

"I do think he'll get in. And it won't be because he wants to, it'll be because he thinks he needs to," said Bill Crocker, RNC national committeeman from Texas. Crocker introduced Perry to members of the Republican National Committee at a luncheon in Dallas last month.

Perry won a difficult Republican primary against Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison in 2010 by contrasting his support for state's rights with his opponent's day job in Washington. His signature pitch to conservative activists is an appeal to the 10th Amendment guarantees of states rights, something that brought an expectant crowd to its feet Saturday. In doing so, he sure sounds like a candidate looking forward to a run for higher office.

"Our goal is to displace the entrenched powers in Washington, restore the rightful balance between the state and federal government," Perry said.

Perry has used his party's control of Texas's legislature to advance a stridently conservative agenda he can use on the campaign trail. This year alone, Perry's 11th in the governor's mansion, he signed legislation to require plaintiffs who lose lawsuits against corporations to pay additional legal costs and a measure that requires voters to show identification when they show up at the ballot box -- a proposal that earned him a standing ovation. The 2010 midterm elections, he said, were evidence that the GOP has a mandate for such aggressive legislation.

"We've got the wind at our back right now. Americans are waking up to the realities of their previous choices," he said. "We must keep America moving back to preeminence because our values and conservative ideas are the world's greatest hope."

Most speakers at the Republican Leadership Conference this week have focused their assaults strictly on Obama and his economic policies. But Perry turned his fire on fellow Republicans who he accused of hiding from social issues under pressure from Democrats.

"When it comes to conservative social issues, it saddens me when sometimes my fellow Republicans duck and cover under pressure from the left," he said. "Let's speak with pride about our morals and our values and redouble our efforts to elect more conservative Republicans. Let's stop this downward American spiral."

At a conference that front-runners Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty and Jon Huntsman avoided, Perry is the closest thing the 2,000 attendees have to a rock star. They treated him as such -- when Perry wrapped up, the activists rang the rafters with chants of "Run, Rick, Run!"

Asked whether he will jump in the race, Monroe, La., resident Greta Jones smiled: "I have a sneaking suspicion he will." Added her friend Carolyn Whitfield: "He's got a lot of pressure to run."

NEW ORLEANS, La. -- Mitt Romney is not here. Tim Pawlenty is otherwise engaged, in San Francisco and Minneapolis. Jon Huntsman is under the weather; his surrogate, his wife, canceled her speech.

The Republican Leadership Conference, once a required stop for GOP presidential hopefuls in search of support from critical southern states, has instead become the domain of second-tier candidates and those still considering jumping in the race. The 2,000 attendees from 38 states rose again and again to applaud the likes of Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Rick Santorum and Ron Paul, but they didn't see a single candidate who might be considered in the top tier.

Organizers in New Orleans are hardly alone. The front-running Republican candidates have signaled they will not attend several other prominent gatherings of conservative activists. Romney and Huntsman will avoid the Iowa straw poll in Ames in August. Romney has said he will not participate in Presidency V, a major event in Florida in September.

That's a stark contrast from four years ago, when any gathering of conservative activists attracted a steady stream of kowtowing contenders. In 2007, virtually the entire GOP field attended at least 10 of these cattle calls, from the Conservative Political Action Conference in March to the Values Voters Summit in October. Along the way, John McCain, Mitt Romney and the rest of the crowd stopped in Iowa, South Carolina, California, Minneapolis, Orlando and Mackinac Island, Mich.

Now, the leading candidates are doing everything possible to avoid the appearance that they care about the results of the ubiquitous presidential straw polls, including skipping the events altogether. The proliferation of required stops on the campaign trail has finally become too big a burden for campaigns to bear; instead, they can make more of an impact by pursuing their own schedule.

"The straw polls are becoming quite expensive and well in excess of any potential benefits," said Frank Donatelli, the chairman of GOPAC and a top advisor to McCain's 2008 campaign. "The web and social networking allows candidates to build their own network independent from party activists."

In fact, the disinterest in participating in straw polls coincides with the rise of a candidate who dominates the field. In New Orleans this week, no candidate attracted a bigger crowd than Ron Paul, the libertarian Texas congressman.

Paul's legions of fans, much younger than the rest of the crowd and much less burdened by sport coats and slacks, began arriving during Cain's address, booing the Atlanta businessman when he declared his support for Israel. They brought in signs, chanted for the end of the Federal Reserve and interrupted their hero constantly with thunderous applause. And, though they stayed for barely an hour, before leaving they gave Paul enough votes to win the straw poll.

Huntsman and Bachmann -- an undeclared candidate and a three-term congresswoman who has never held a leadership position within her Conference -- finished in second and third place. Cain, a businessman who has never held elected office, finished fourth, while Romney took just under 5 percent of the vote.

So it's little wonder that Romney, the undisputed front-runner, has said he will not participate in this year's straw polls. Any presidential campaign is made up, in no small part, of risk aversion. If Romney, or others, actively participate in straw polls and lose, they risk raising questions about their standing.

"Why spend a ton of money and resources on something that, ultimately, isn't going to make a bit of a difference in getting the nomination," asked one Republican strategist who will work for a presidential campaign this year.

Increasingly, front-running campaigns cannot find a justifiable answer to that question.

At a meeting of the Nevada Republican state central committee Saturday, former state Republican Party Chair Mark Amodei cruised to an easy victory in the race for the party's nomination in the state's 2nd District special election, winning by a wide margin over his two closest competitors. But a still uncertain state Supreme Court decision will determine whether the state party central committees will choose nominees for the race, or whether all qualifying candidates will be allowed entry.

Amodei received 221 votes, reported the Associated Press; state Sen. Greg Brower received 56 votes while former USS Cole skipper Kirk Lippold received 46 votes.

What remains unclear is how the state will determine which candidates can enter the special election. Initially, Democratic Secretary of State Ross Miller ruled that the election would be open to all qualifying candidates. The ruling angered Republicans, who sensed that Democrats could stand to take advantage, given that the field of credible GOP candidates was more crowded, presenting the potential for vote splitting.

The state GOP appealed, and a District Court judge overturned Miller's decision, but the state Supreme Court is currently making a final judgment over whether the state party central committees will decide the respective nominees for the race, or whether a "ballot royale" scenario that will accommodate all qualifying candidates will be used.

Miller filed a declaration with the state Supreme Court specifying July 6 as the deadline for determining the names of the candidates who will appear on the September 13 special ballot. Late last month, the state Supreme Court filed a request with he state asking for a delay in the election, to provide more time to make its decision.

NEW ORLEANS, La.--An actor impersonating President Obama delivered racially tinged jokes to a crowd of more than a thousand Republican activists here Saturday, taking aim at the incumbent president, the Republican presidential field and prominent politicians in both parties.

The actor, Reggie Brown, is a well-known Obama impersonator who has appeared on Fox News several times. Some jokes made in front of the Republican Leadership Conference Saturday drew big laughs, while others groaned at jokes that appeared over the line.

Brown said Obama's favorite month is February, Black History Month. "Michelle celebrates the whole month. I celebrate half of it," he said. "My mother loved a black man, and no, she was not a Kardashian," he added.

The Obama impersonator appeared on stage to the strains of Bruce Springsteen's "Born in the USA." He made repeated references to the controversy over Obama's birth certificate and to his upbringing in Hawaii -- "or, as the Tea Partiers call it, Kenya."

Brown pulled few punches when taking aim at the GOP field either. He suggested front-runner Mitt Romney, a Mormon, had multiple wives. Tim Pawlenty's absence, Brown said, came because the former Minnesota governor was undergoing a medical procedure to remove his foot from his mouth, and one to implant a new spine. Newt Gingrich's "consultants are dropping faster than Anthony Weiner's pants in an AOL chat room," he said.

Meanwhile, CNN's John King gave Pawlenty the opportunity to take a swing at Romney's health care plan that was "softer than Barney Frank's backside," Brown joked.

An uneasy mixture of laughter and groans gave way to boos when Brown began insulting Republican candidates. When he began taking aim at Rep. Michele Bachmann, event organizers cut his microphone and brought up music; a Louisiana Republican Party official came on stage to escort him off, apparently well before Brown's set was complete.

The Louisiana Republican Party had hired Brown for a video in which he sits in a fake Oval Office pledging to serve as chairman of the GOP's voter registration drive. But hiring an Obama impersonator is dangerous, not least because of the racial element it brings.

"Wonder why many minorities have problems with GOP? Hiring Obama impersonator to tell 'black jokes' at SRLC, for starters," tweeted Doug Heye, a GOP strategist who served as the RNC's communications director during 2010. "Our own fault."

Louisiana Republican Party chairman Roger Villerie refused to discuss the decision to bring in the impersonator, or whether the jokes were appropriate for this venue. He did say, though, that he made the decision to pull Brown off the stage.

NEW ORLEANS, La.--Rep. Ron Paul rode a wave of support from young activists to win a straw poll at the Republican Leadership Conference here, his latest title fueled by a group of rabidly loyal fans who have little use for the rest of the GOP field.

Paul took 612 votes out of the 1,542 ballots cast. Former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman finished in second place with 382 ballots, while Rep. Michele Bachmann finished third with 191.

The straw poll, held at the annual gathering for thousands of Republican activists from across the South, lacked a serious push by any of the candidates considered the race's front-runners. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty and Huntsman all passed on the chance to address 2,000 activists from 38 states who gathered here.

Another potential front-runner, Texas Gov. Rick Perry, was left off the straw poll ballot. He will address the conference later this afternoon.

Instead, the gathering has been dominated by second-tier contenders like Bachmann, Atlanta businessman Herman Cain, former Sen. Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich, the one-time Speaker of the House. Over the course of three days, those candidates brought the crowd repeatedly to its feet.

Cain finished fourth, with 104 ballots, followed by Romney (74), Gingrich (69), former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (41), Santorum (30), Pawlenty (18), former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson (10), former Louisiana Gov. Buddy Roemer (9) and Rep. Thad McCotter (2).

No candidate attracts the fanatic loyalty Paul does. Organizers brought in extra chairs during Paul's speech on Friday, and fans packed shoulder to shoulder waving signs and interrupting their hero with chants.

It's Paul's second strong showing at the annual gathering of southern conservative activists in a row. In 2010, Paul finished just a single vote behind Mitt Romney.

NEW ORLEANS, La. -- Sen. Jim DeMint isn't planning to target any of his fellow Republican senators for defeat this year, but that could change if incumbents end up voting to raise the federal debt limit, he said Friday.

Addressing the Republican Leadership Conference here, DeMint said his Senate Conservatives Fund would aim to raise $15 million for favored candidates during the 2012 elections. In an interview later, he said he isn't trying to oust any colleagues now, but that could change.

If senators vote to raise the debt ceiling, "something that important to me and the country, if we have folks who go the wrong way on that, it's going to be pretty hard for me to sit still," he told Hotline On Call.

Still, he professed a reluctance to engage in an intra-party feud: "With 23 Democrats up, I've got a whole lot of work to do without bothering any of my colleagues at this time," DeMint said.

DeMint said he believes the Republican presidential field isn't set yet, though he demurred at some efforts by South Carolina Republicans to get him in the race.

"I can't help but be humbled and honored when people do something like that, but it's not something I want to do. We don't have any plans right now. I'm trying to identify other candidates," he said. "I probably will [endorse a candidate], but I don't have any inclinations now. I'll keep an open mind. It comes down to how they deal with this balanced budget amendment.

The senator had nothing but praise for one Republican whom some politicians in his home state are trying to draft into the presidential race. Asked about the effort by some Palmetto State lawmakers to draft New Jersey's governor, DeMint said: "I'll join them with Chris Christie."

NEW ORLEANS, La. -- If there's one thing second tier Republican presidential candidates have over the front-runners, it's their ability to fire up a crowd. So while activists at the Republican Leadership Conference here aren't going to have the chance to see the biggest names in the GOP field, they are instead being treated to a rich diet of red meat from candidates like Rep. Michele Bachmann, Rep. Ron Paul, businessman Herman Cain and former Sen. Rick Santorum.

Every four years, the GOP's hard core populist conservatives seem to vault one of their own into position to compete with the better-funded establishment candidates. On Friday, all four members of this year's second tier made their case that they ought to be the Chosen One.

Each has dedicated followers. Paul attracts a younger, anti-war crowd that wants to audit the Federal Reserve. Cain, who hosted a popular conservative talk radio show in Atlanta, brings the crowd to its feet with his fiery rhetoric. Santorum has a long history with social conservatives; he touted his role in a six-hour debate over partial birth abortion during his Senate career.

But it was Bachmann, coming off her surprisingly strong showing at a debate of Republican contenders in New Hampshire, who seemed most likely to break through. To do so, she'll have to appeal to a much broader coalition than any of her rivals. And, she said Friday, she's the candidate best able to do so.

"We need to add peace-through-strength Republicans, and I'm one of those. We need to add the fiscal conservative leg, and I'm one of those. And we most certainly need to add the social conservative leg, and I am one of those," Bachmann said.

"Telling our great story, I think is going to require a great leader," she added. "I am here to say to you, I am ready too. Let's go together."

Few members of Congress can make an appeal that fires up Tea Party activists like Bachmann does. She hit all the high notes a talk radio host might hit -- opposition to President Obama's health care reform measure, raising the debt ceiling and government regulations that would require new energy-efficient lightbulbs ("President Bachmann will allow you to buy any lightbulb you want," she said, bringing the crowd to its feet).

Bachmann, Cain and Paul packed the auditorium Friday afternoon, but only Bachmann held the attention of the media. She drew about 25 reporters to a press conference following her speech, even as Santorum took the stage.

Her standing in the national polls lags front-runner Mitt Romney, and she doesn't have the establishment support of her fellow Minnesotan, Tim Pawlenty. But Bachmann, who speaks tomorrow at an Americans for Prosperity-sponsored event in her home state, could prove the wrench in both former governors' plans for winning the Republican nomination.

President Obama's reelection campaign will begin flexing its organizing muscles Saturday as it holds a series of nationwide events to begin registering voters and inviting supporters to officially declare, "I'm in."

The campaign has been raising money and reaching out to potential supporters since April 4, when the president filed reelection papers. But tomorrow could be an early indicator of just how much work Obama has to do to put his vaunted grassroots network back together.

Team Obama is inviting the president's backers to show up at one of 425 "Day of Action" events in more than 40 states. Some are voter registration events; others are designed to sign up supporters to work on the campaign.

Most events will be run by volunteers who have been in touch with a staff member from Obama for America or the Democratic National Committee, a campaign press aide said. Staffers will not attend every event. The campaign press aide, who asked not to be identified, said there's no specific goal for a number of participants in the "Day of Action."

But the campaign team - still in its infancy, but beginning to hire more people - does have an ambitious goal. At the Netroots Nation conference in Minneapolis Friday, National Field Director Jeremy Bird told a group of progressive activists that his team has begun to reach out to every person who was connected to the campaign in 2008 -- for starters.

Bird said the Obama team wants to expand its base of supporters and grassroots efforts in every state. A map of events planned for tomorrow - some created by volunteers outside of the "Day of Action" efforts - shows they are heavily concentrated in the eastern, and particularly northeastern part of the U.S., with little planned for a line of states down the Midwest - North and South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas.

2012 won't see the same level of excitement among voters that 2008 did, a fact that was evident at the Netroots conference Friday when progressives grilled White House communications director Dan Pfeiffer about what they perceive as a failure of the administration on a range of issues from gay marriage to closing Guantanamo Bay. But the campaign is depending on the strength of grassroots, neighbor-to-neighbor communication to help overcome the enthusiasm deficit.

"Anybody who thinks this election is going to be easy is just mistaken," Bird told activists. "We're going to have to fight for every single vote."

The economy will once again be front and center on this week's Sunday public affairs programs. As budget deficit talks continue, the debt ceiling vote looms in the distance, the country's military role overseas is questioned, and with the 2012 Republican candidates ramping up their campaigns, there will be plenty of material for the programs to bring up.

NBC's "Meet the Press" gets down to business with Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin and Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C. CBS' "Face the Nation" will discuss the topics above above with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, Sen. Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., and Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Mich.

ABC's "This Week" hosts Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., and hosts two panels. Their foreign policy panel will consist of the Washington Post's David Ignatius, Pakistan's Ambassador to the United States Hussein Haqqani and former Vice President Dick Cheney's daughter, Liz Cheney. The politics panel will include the Washington Post's George Will, National Journal's Matthew Dowd, ABC's political director Amy Walter and Slate's Jacob Weisberg.

Both CNN's "State of the Union" and Fox News' "Fox News Sunday" will speak with outgoing Defense Secretary Robert Gates. CNN will also talk with David Axelrod about the economy and how it will affect President Obama's chances in 2012. To lighten the mood, Fox News will sit down with funny-man and host of Comedy Central's "The Daily Show," Jon Stewart. Watch to see whether Stewart gives his thoughts on the scandal surrounding his close friend Rep. Anthony Weiner, D-N.Y.

Get the full listings after the jump.

NEW ORLEANS, La. -- Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour isn't buying the notion that this year's gubernatorial races are going to be boring. In remarks to the Republican Leadership Conference on Friday, Barbour said Republican candidates are going to win at least one of the two seats held by Democrats that are up for election this year.

Voters will elect governors in Louisiana, Mississippi, West Virginia and Kentucky. Republicans hold Louisiana and Mississippi, while Democrats control West Virginia and Kentucky.

Barbour predicted Republicans will end the year with "not just the two Republican governors we've got now, but at least three and maybe four Republican governors."

But that may be a stretch. Kentucky Gov. Steve Beshear has a big 21-point lead over state Senate President David Williams, according to a recent poll conducted by Braun Research. And West Virginia acting Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin, who took over after then-Gov. Joe Manchin won election to the Senate, is seen as the overwhelming front-runner over businessman Bill Maloney.

Then again, Democrats don't have a lot of opportunities either. Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal hasn't even drawn a serious Democratic opponent, while Barbour's lieutenant governor, Phil Bryant, is the front-runner to replace his boss.

Barbour ran the Republican Governors Association in 2010.

It's not every day that a member of the Obama administration has to submit to sustained, unrelenting, and, more importantly, public questioning, and when someone does, it's not hard to see why they avoid it. When White House Communications Director Dan Pfeiffer sat down with Daily Kos Associate Editor Kaili Joy Gray at Netroots Nation, an annual gathering of progressive activists, he got hammered.

The so-called "professional left" that former White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs once maligned had a bone to pick with the president. They feel he's let them down on myriad issues, from gay marriage to passing immigration reform and climate change bills to closing Guantanamo Bay.

Take a heated exchange between Gray and Pfeiffer: she asked about whether the administration agrees that there has been a "war on women," as House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and Democratic National Committee chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz, D-Fla., have suggested.

Yes, Pfeiffer said, Republicans have tried to undo a lot of our progress. He listed some examples of what the administration has done to protect women, including the Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act, which passed Congress in 2009.

"You mentioned Lilly Ledbetter. Frankly we're a little tired of hearing about that one," Gray responded icily.

This was not atypical of the session, which lasted just over an hour. The exchange was just as heated when the subject of fully repealing Don't Ask, Don't Tell came up, when Gray repeatedly asked Pfeiffer, "so when are you going to stop kicking people out of the military?" Each time, he gave her some version of "soon." And on many of the issues, Pfeiffer could do little more than say that the administration's hands were tied by an unfriendly Congress.

Rep. Jay Inslee, D-Wash., a likely gubernatorial candidate in 2012, is giving away a donation he received over a decade ago from Rep. Anthony Weiner, D-N.Y., the Everett Herald reports.

"Jay plans to donate this decade-old contribution to Planned Parenthood," Inslee political adviser Joby Shimomura told the paper.

State Republicans applied pressure on Inslee to return the $1,000 donation he received in 2000 from the congressman who on Thursday announced his resignation amid urging from his own party's leadership to step aside.

Washington Democratic Gov. Christine Gregoire announced Monday that she will not seek a third term.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Pawlenty says he should have gone after Romney more on health care during Monday's debate while in New Hampshire, Ovide Lamontagne is making calls as he seriously mulls a gubernatorial bid. Meanwhile, things heat up in Utah between Chaffetz and Hatch while Quinnipiac asks, Phillies or Pirates? Here's today's rundown:

7) Ah, summer, when politics slows down a bit and baseball ramps up. Quinnipiac is polling on America's pasttime and finds Pennsylvania baseball fans prefer the Philadelphia Phillies over the Pittsburgh Pirates 51 percent to 22 percent -- sorry Pirates fans. Eight percent of Pennsylvania baseball fans like the New York Yankees and 3 percent like the Mets.

6) Following Rep. Anthony Weiner's, D-N.Y., decision to resign from Congress on Thursday, the Wall Street Journal reports that party leaders plan to move swiftly to identify potential successors and an aide to Gov. Andrew Cuomo said the he is expected to declare a special election for either Primary Day, Sept. 13, or Election Day, Nov. 8.

5) Andy Parrish, a top aide to Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., has moved to Iowa to begin organizing for the straw poll and caucuses.

Rep. Anthony Weiner, D-N.Y., resigned on Thursday but that didn't stop the late night hosts from making a few last jokes at his expense. Conan O'Brien: "It's sort of a good news, bad news thing. The good news is that Congressman Weiner resigned. The bad news, he made the announcement shirtless over Skype."

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast Forward to 1:00, Jimmy Kimmel isn't sure that Weiner will be able to change his ways.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump!

MINNEAPOLIS, Minn. -- In a keynote speech before a crowd of nearly 2400 progress activists from around the country Thursday, former Sen. Russ Feingold, D-Wis., sounded anything but retired.

Since his electoral defeat last fall at the hands of now-Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., Feingold has founded and focused on a political action committee, Progressives United. However, the retirement of the state's senior Democratic Senator, Herb Kohl, has raised speculation about a possible return to the Senate for Feingold, whose name has also been floated for a potential challenge to Wisconsin's controversial Republican Governor, Scott Walker.

Feingold says he'll make a decision by Labor Day, but if his speech at Netroots Nation, the annual progressive gathering, is any indication, he's focused on the Senate. He criticized the influence of money on Congress and offered a history of campaign finance legislation, arguing that the Supreme Court's 5-4 Citizens United decision put the United States on course for "corporate dominance" of democracy.

His solution? Change the composition of the Supreme Court in the hopes of seeing a future challenge overturn the law - a goal Feingold could advance as a senator, but not in the Wisconsin statehouse. "We can get that vote," Feingold said.

Feingold had harsh words for Priorities USA, the new Democratic "Super PAC" launched by two former White House aides, which will accept the kind unlimited, undisclosed donations allowed by Citizens United to fund independent expenditures on behalf of President Obama's reelection campaign. "Not just wrong, it's dumb strategy," Feingold warned.

NEW ORLEANS, La. -- Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is planning an October surprise for President Obama. But he's giving the White House political shop a heads up just a few months in advance.

Gingrich told conservatives gathered at the annual Republican Leadership Conference here he will take a one-hour break after his inauguration ceremony, should he win the presidency, in order to sign between 50 and 200 executive orders. Those executive orders, Gingrich said, will come from suggestions he'll solicit from supporters on his website in a project he's dubbing "On the First Day."

After he wins the Republican nomination, Gingrich will roll out those executive orders by October 1, he said. And though he won't reveal every one of his plans, Gingrich already has four in mind -- executive orders that eliminate White House czars, would reinstate the Mexico City policy, would reinstate George W. Bush's conscience provisions that allow doctors to refuse to perform abortions, and would move the U.S. Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem (No mention, however, of health care reform).

Gingrich, beset by troubles after the bulk of his senior campaign staff quit en masse last week, stuck to talking points that guaranteed applause on Thursday night, lines he has used for years. And though his political future looks bleak, Gingrich is nothing if not optimistic.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee has paid off its debt load and is the first of the six campaign committees to free itself of debt this cycle.

The NRSC has closed the books on the month of May and made its final payment on the $6.5 million in debt the committee carried into this year, according to an email from the committee's executive director Rob Jesmer to NRSC Chairman John Cornyn obtained by Hotline On Call.

In 2009, the NRSC also paid down their debt by May but received a $2 million transfer from the RNC that year and also had nearly $2 million more in debt this year.

Through May, the NRSC has raised a total of $17.74 million, according to the email obtained by On Call. Through April, the DSCC had raised more than $14.5 million and ended the month with $6 million in the bank and $4.3 million in debt. The NRSC had raised $14.65 million through April with $1.38 million cash on hand and $1 million in debt.

Rep. Anthony Weiner's, D-N.Y., resignation from the 9th Congressional District seat appears certain to trigger the fifth New York special election in three years. So after bungling three straight races in GOP-leaning districts upstate, do Republicans have any hope of pulling an upset in a Democratic-leaning district in the middle of New York City?

Unlike other recent New York special elections held upstate, the race would be dictated more by the tribal allegiances of city politics than by the national landscape or partisan considerations. The 9th, a traditionally Jewish district stretching from central Queens to southern Brooklyn, is by far the least Democratic seat held by a Democrat in the city: It gave President Obama only 55 percent of the vote in 2008 and at a Cook Political Report PVI of D+5, it is actually less Democratic than NY-26 is Republican.

The race will provide far from a fair appraisal of the landscape heading into 2012 not only because of the tribal nature of city politics, but especially because it will take place amid the uncertainty of redistricting. Democratic Rep. Kathy Hochul's victory in NY-26 is instructive of the danger in drawing conclusions about redistricting as soon as shirtless photos of an incumbent create a vacancy. The special election to succeed Weiner starts off in the Likely Democratic column.

National Journal subscribers can read the full story here.

Former Missouri Treasurer Sarah Steelman has released a web video in which she says she opposes elements of Rep. Paul Ryan's, R-Wis., budget plan that call for changes to Medicare, but when asked during a radio interview about whether she would have voted vote yes or no on the plan, Steelman would not specify.

"The Ryan plan is a start, but it isn't perfect," Steelman says in the campaign video. "I opposed the $500 billion cut in Medicare when it was in the Obamacare bill, and unfortunately, it's still in the Ryan plan. And I don't like the idea of vouchers that don't keep up with the skyrocketing costs of health insurance. I deeply respect Paul Ryan's courage, and it is a good start, but as a conservative and as an economist, I will support a budget plan that goes farther and faster in cutting spending, that fundamentally reforms entitlements and that balances the budget sooner than 2030."

But in a radio appearance Wednesday, after the video was released, Steelman was asked whether she would vote yes or no on the measure.

"Would you support that budget if you could vote now? Are there things you like or dislike about it?" Eagle 93.9 radio host Mike Ferguson asked.

"So, you know, I don't think it's an either/or question on the Ryan Plan," Steelman said, as part of a longer response to the question. "I think those people in Washington, both Republicans and Democrats, say 'Oh you gotta take a position on this.' Well, there's some things I like about it, there's some things I don't like about it. I'm still working through it and looking at it and as an economist, I'm going to make my own conclusions about it."

6/17 10:41 a.m. CORRECTION: The previous version of this story indicated incorrectly that the Club for Growth had endorsed Lee before FreedomWorks last cycle. FreedomWorks PAC endorsed Lee first, in February of 2010.

Sen. Orrin Hatch, R-Utah, scored with an endorsement from conservative radio host Mark Levin on Tuesday -- but then took a hit Thursday when the national Tea Party group FreedomWorks announced that Hatch would be their first 2012 incumbent Republican target.

"The bottom line is Hatch doesn't represent the state of Utah," said Russ Walker, FreedomWorks' VP of political and grassroots campaigns, to the Daily Caller, who first reported the news. "The state of Utah is far more fiscally conservative than Orrin Hatch is. It's an opportunity to pick up a seat, it's an opportunity to find somebody who is better."

The group is planning to start a "Retire Orrin Hatch" campaign at the Utah Republican Convention on Saturday. The group cited Hatch's votes to increase the debt ceiling, in support of TARP, and against a ban on earmarks, as reasons for their decision. Walker told Hotline On Call in an interview that FreedomWorks would have a hospitality suite at the convention and would try to educate delegates about Hatch's voting record, including through a video about his role in crafting SChip with the late Sen. Ted Kennedy, D-Mass. Walker also said the group has had a grassroots campaign underway for three months to elect delegates.

Walker indicated that the group hadn't chosen a candidate to support yet, but that they were confident that either Rep. Jason Chaffetz, R-Utah, or Utah state Sen. Dan Liljenquist would run, and that both would be good candidates.

In a twist, late Thursday afternoon Hatch's campaign announced the endorsement of FreedomWorks Foundation Board co-chairman C. Boyden Gray.

FreedomWorks contributed to former Sen. Bob Bennett's, R-Utah, loss at the 2010 convention. The group endorsed Sen. Mike Lee, R-Utah, in February of last year. At the time, the Club for Growth had already announced they were working against Bennett, but had not yet endorsed Lee. This year, Hatch has no declared primary opponents yet, but the Club for Growth has already urged Chaffetz to enter the race.

With a campaign finance deadline looming, a spokesman for Newt Gingrich's campaign vowed Thursday that the former House speaker will raise enough money to fund his campaign, even as he admitted the candidate "starts in a bit of a hole" after most of his senior staff shockingly resigned last week.

Amid the exodus, many of Gingrich's former staffers said the campaign had hemorrhaged money and lacked the funds to cover even its most basic expenses. The campaign does have debt, said longtime Gingrich aide R.C. Hammond, but he said a renewed fundraising push will quickly erase it.

"We will not have Mitt's millions," said Hammond, referencing the well-financed Mitt Romney. "But we will have the financial resources needed to run the issues-oriented campaign the American people have been thirsting for."

He disputed charges that Gingrich is unwilling to "dial for dollars," a term used to describe candidates making phone calls to donors asking for money. Gingrich, who Hammond said has added time to his schedule to raise money, will perform only three activities from now on, "Stumping on the campaign trail, sleeping, and raising money on the phone."

Gingrich and his campaign will know whether he can raise enough money on June 30, the second-quarter deadline for campaign fundraising reports. Reporters and Republicans will heavily scrutinize the disclosure, which is made public weeks after the deadline. A better-than-expected report might put Gingrich's campaign back on life support, but dismal numbers would doom a bid that most pundits have already left for dead.

Updated at 3:00 p.m.

Top Senate Democrats believe Elizabeth Warren, who is overseeing the establishment of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, is warming to their entreaties to seek the Democratic nomination to take on Sen. Scott Brown, R-Mass., next year.

Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., was seen dining Tuesday night with Warren at Vidalia, on M Street. It was the second time Warren had dinner with Schumer, who has been making the case that Warren can mount a serious challenge to Brown, who Democrats argue has weakening numbers and is vulnerable to a well-funded challenger with President Obama on the ballot next year in a state where Democrats have a significant edge on the registration rolls.

Schumer spokesman Brian Fallon acknowledged the meeting but declined to comment on its substance.

Democrats said Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairwoman Patty Murray was referring to Warren when she told reporters last month that "we expect to have a good, strong candidate within weeks," in the Massachusetts Senate race. The sources said, however, that they do not expect an immediate decision from Warren and no action is likely before at least July 4th.

The Senate's July 4th recess offers Warren's next chance to get a much-discussed recess appointment from Obama to head the CFPB, but the White House has signaled it is unlikely to make recess appointments during that break, and odds Warren will ever get the post appear to be falling amid GOP opposition to her appointment.

In today's Washington Post, conservative columnist George Will sings praises of Republican Ted Cruz, a Texas Senate candidate, providing him with a national establishment conservative voice of support to go along with the praise he has won from various national conservative groups.

"For anyone seeking elective office anywhere, this story is as good as it gets: At age 14, Cruz's father fought with rebels (including Fidel Castro) against Cuba's dictator, Fulgencio Batista. Captured and tortured, at 18 he escaped to America with $100 sewn in his underwear. He graduated from the University of Texas and met his wife -- like him, a mathematician -- with whom he founded a small business processing seismic data for the oil industry," Will writes.

Cruz tells his family's story frequently on the campaign trail to explain the roots of his conservative values. He has already garnered national buzz, securing endorsements from the Club for Growth, FreedomWorks, and Sen. Mike Lee, R-Utah, among others.

A question for Cruz, the state's former solicitor general, will be whether the national support he has lined up will help boost his fundraising to the degree necessary to keep pace with well-funded opponents like former Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert and, if he gets in the race as many expect, Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst. His will be one of the more eagerly awaited 2nd quarter FEC reports (he raised over $ 1 million in the first quarter).

Cruz is slated to speak at this afternoon at the Republican Leadership Conference in New Orleans.

Rep. Anthony Weiner, has told Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., that he will resign his House seat. Weiner informed Pelosi of his decision Wednesday night, according to a senior Democratic aide. Read the full story from National Journal's Major Garrett and Billy House here.

National Journal Daily subscribers can also check out House Race Hotline Editor Jessica Taylor's piece from last week on possible successors:

Republicans so far who have been mentioned as possible candidates include Weiner's 2010 opponent, Bob Turner, who held Weiner to just 59 percent last cycle. That was his lowest percentage ever in a race where Weiner outspent Turner nearly 4-1. Turner told National Review last week he's thinking about running again.

Other possible Republicans include New York state Judge Noach Dear, who ran against Weiner in the 1998 Democratic primaries. Dear later joined the GOP and again challenged him. New York City Council Member Eric Ulrich could also be a potential contender.

Rudy Giuliani is urging Ulrich to run, Politico reported Wednesday. Ulrich is a young up-and-comer with a lot of buzz surrounding him right now.

Possible Democrats include City Councilman Mark Weprin, and former City Councilmembers Melinda Katz and Eric Gioia.

Procedurally, once Gov. Andrew Cuomo recognizes the vacancy, he will set an election date between 70 and 80 days from that announcement.

A notable tidbit from this morning's Des Moines Register story on which candidates Mike Huckabee's 2008 caucusgoers are migrating toward in Iowa:

Of the Huckabee supporters interviewed by The Des Moines Register, the majority said they're receptive to overtures from [Rep. Michele] Bachmann, who made her bid for the White House official Monday. But most said she's not even close to sewing up their votes in the nation's leadoff voting contest, scheduled for Feb. 6.

Fellow Minnesotan Tim Pawlenty is going to be a major presence in Iowa during the lead up to August's Ames Straw poll, and has also made overtures to former Huckabee backers.

Florida Senate President Mike Haridopolos, a Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate plugged into Sunshine State politics, said without hesitation Wednesday that Mitt Romney should be considered the "favorite" to win Florida's pivotal primary election early next year.

"But this is a wide open race," Haridopolos, who doesn't intend to make an endorsement in the GOP presidential primary, told Hotline on Call. "I'm not gonna bet the house on anybody."

Haridopolos, a key Sunshine State backer of former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee in 2008, was effusive in praising Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, saying he would make "a very good nominee" and touting his impressive financial and organizational network throughout the state. He also acknowledged that Romney should be considered the overall GOP front-runner in the race, nationally. But asked about another former governor, however -- Utah's Jon Huntsman -- Haridopolos was noticeably less bullish.

"If we got 20 Floridians in a room and said, 'Who's Jon Huntsman?', I'd say maybe one out of 20 might know who he is," Haridopolos said. "I barely knew who he was."

Haridopolos also struck a tone of caution when discussing Florida's unsettled primary date, which will be decided by a 10-member commission he helped establish. Florida's primary is currently slated for January 31, which violates a Republican National Committee mandate designed to protect the early voting states of Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada.

Seeking "middle ground," Haridopolos said Florida will push back its primary to accommodate the early states, but didn't sound optimistic about waiting until after March 1, as the RNC requires. "We do not want to disrupt the historic states of Iowa or New Hampshire -- and however Nevada and South Carolina got there, God bless 'em -- but we want to be number five," Haridopolos said. "I hope that cooler heads will prevail here."

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Romney picks up some key GOP support in the Sunshine State while Pawlenty prepares to spend some serious time in Iowa. Tommy Thompson plays defense in Washington while Mike Haridopolos reflects on his recent experience on a conservative radio show. Here's today's rundown:

10) From bad to worse: House Democratic leaders will gather today to discuss what to do about Rep. Anthony Weiner, D-N.Y. Democratic aides told Roll Call said it was unlikely he would be removed from the Energy and Commerce Committee, the next logical step in putting the pressure on.

9) Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, D-Ariz., was released Wednesday from the Houston rehabilitation hospital where she was being treated. She'll live at her husband's suburban Houston home as she continues outpatient treatment at the facility. The Arizona Republic has the full story here.

8) Competing conventions of online political activists are getting underway in Minneapolis. The one for liberals, Netroots Nation, opens today and has attracted big names in the past. But the buzzier venue may be Right Online, the conservatives convention meeting that kicks off Friday. Big name speakers include former Gov. Tim Pawlenty, Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., and former Godfather's Pizza CEO Herman Cain

And the Republican Leadership Conference begins Thursday in New Orleans, marking the last major occasion for Republican presidential hopefuls to audition for a large crowd of primary voters before the Iowa straw poll in early August. Look for live dispatches on Hotline On Call.

Keith Olbermann stops by the Colbert Report but isn't "man enough" to admit he lost to FNC host Bill O'Reilly.

President Obama can't keep up his "spicy pronunciation" during his state visit to Puerto Rico.

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 2:00 for an invite to the White House Congressional Picnic.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump!

A new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll confirms what other recent surveys have shown: The bump that President Obama received in the wake of Osama bin Laden's death has receded. And amid renewed pessimism about the direction of the country, voters' desire to re-elect the president has reverted to levels seen earlier this spring.

Obama's approval rating sits at 49 percent, three points lower than last month -- and equal to his approval rating in April. The percentage of Americans who disapprove of Obama rose five points over the last month to 46 percent, one point higher than the April poll.

A majority of Americans still disapproves of the job that Obama is doing in handling the economy, though that number has rebounded slightly from the record low set last month. Now 41 percent approves of Obama's economic performance, up from just 37 percent in May.

After a brief uptick in May, the percentage of Americans who see the U.S. as off on the wrong track has risen to 62 percent.

That is taking a toll on Obama's re-election prospects. As in May, 45 percent of registered voters say they will probably vote for Obama in November 2012. While that number has stayed constant, the percentage of voters who say they will probably vote for the Republican candidate has risen 10 points in the last month, to 40 percent. The five-point lead Obama holds over a generic Republican is equal to margins recorded in April and February.

A controversial web ad that attacks Janice Hahn, the Democratic candidate in California's 36th District, had Democrats inflamed on Wednesday, calling for Republican candidate Craig Huey to condemn the spot, which he did Wednesday afternoon.

"The ad was not authorized and not affiliated with my campaign," Huey said in a statement. "Whether people agree with my politics or not, anyone who knows me can attest to the fact that I would not participate in something of this nature. The ad is blatantly racist and sexist and neither racism nor sexism has any place in the public sphere. I have spent this campaign focusing on the issues that matter to our district: jobs, taxes, and the national debt. I hope that Janice Hahn and national allies will stop dragging this campaign into the dirt. They know the ad is not from me. In fact Hahn is the only person who has approved of typical negative attack ads. Our district deserves better, and that is what I stand for."

But even as Huey has repudiated the spot, Hahn's campaign believes there was coordination between Huey's campaign and Turn Right USA PAC, the group that launched the ad. The Hahn campaign is calling for a Federal Election Commission investigation into the ad and for Huey to go further than just denouncing the ad and call for it to be taken down.

Hahn's camapign charges that the official address for Turn Right USA is the same location as a group called CampaignLA, according to FEC filings from the latter group in May 2010. Huey's latest FEC disclosure report names CampaignLA as one of their vendors, says the Hahn campaign.

"There are literally millions of post office boxes where Turn Right USA could have set up their phony political location. I'm not a statistician, but I think I have a better chance of winning the Super Lotto Jackpot, than these two Pro-Huey political groups winding up in the exact same address by accident," said Hahn's campaign manager, Dave Jacobson.

"It just came to our attention in the last hour that a rogue vendor who sold 100 yard signs to our campaign in March shares an address with people who may have been involved in some way in the vile and racist 'ad' circulating on the internet," responded Huey campaign manager Jimmy Camp. "We have had no contact with this vendor since March and completely disavow their actions, if they were in fact involved in the ad. We have stated repeatedly over the last 24 hours that this ad is greatly offensive and we had no involvement whatsoever in its production or distribution. We stand by that statement."

The ad charges that Hahn "hired hardcore gang members with taxpayer money to be gang intervention specialists." As a stripper dances on a poll, a rap refrain continues: "Give me your cash b--ch so we can shoot up the street."

EMILY's List called the ad "the most vile, racist, sexist ad we have ever seen," and had a conference call planned for Wednesday afternoon with its president Stephanie Schriock and other California officials to press Huey to denounce the ad. But the call was canceled once Huey released his statement.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is fundraising off of the ad. "An attack on women and minorities this blatant and offensive deserves our strongest grassroots response. That's why we want to raise an immediate $150,000 by Monday for our rapid response fund to help fight back against vile right-wing attacks like these," wrote DCCC Executive Director Robby Mook in a fundraising e-mail.

A alleged topless photo of a vacationing Newt Gingrich that TMZ posted to its website this morning has since been taken down, and the Gingrich campaign says the subject in the photograph was not the former House speaker.

"They took it down when they realized it wasn't Newt," Gingrich spokesman R.C. Hammond told Hotline On Call.

The link to the story that was up on the entertainment gossip website earlier today now directs readers to a page that says "we're sorry, but we weren't able to find that page."

TMZ did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Just two presidential candidates have to file personal financial disclosures with Congress this year. One of them did.

Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., got an extension on her annual filing to the House Clerk this year (looks like she's been pretty busy setting up a presidential campaign). But Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, made the deadline.

Paul, who favors a return to the gold standard, puts his money where his mouth is. Most of his assets and unearned income (valued at between $2.4 and $5.5 million) comes from stocks in gold mining companies. He holds stock in at least 18 of them: Agnico Eagle Mines, AngloGold Ashanti Ltd, Brigus Gold Corp, Barrick Gold Corp, Claude Research Inc., Coeur D'Alene Mines Corp, Eldorado Gold Corp, Gold Corp Inc, Golden Star Res Ltd, Great Basin Gold Ltd, IAM Gold Corp., Kinross, Newmont Mining Corp, Virginia Mines Inc, Vista Gold Corp, Wesdome Gold Mines, Allied Nevada Gold Corp, and Hecla Mining Co.

But Paul also holds stock in some silver mining companies. He reported holdings in the $50,000-$100,000 range in Silver Wheaton Corp., Pan American Silver and Mag Silver Corp., as well as holdings worth up to $15,000 in Metaline Mining Co.

An obstetrician, Paul reported receiving $91,185 in a medical pension. His total net worth is at least $2.5 million and be as high as $5.5 million. (Congressional disclosure forms require lawmakers to list their holdings in broad categories of value, hence the wide range).

Even though he wasn't at a much anticipated New Hampshire debate on Monday, former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman hasn't had a problem finding his way into the news cycle this week.

He announced Tuesday that he is launching his presidential campaign next week, and he also recently spoke to Esquire, who will include a lengthy profile of the former ambassador to China in its August issue.

Esquire teased the piece Wednesday afternoon, including quotes from Huntsman on Afghanistan ("Should we stay and play traffic cop? I don't think that serves our strategic interests") and Libya (he does not think the U.S. should have intervened), as well as some scathing broadsides from one of his advisers directed at other Republicans in the field.

"Tim's a nice guy," said Huntsman's chief strategist John Weaver, of former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, adding "and there's nothing worse than seeing a nice guy pretend that he's angry. Is that really what we want to be? Is that how we're going to define ourselves? When's the last time an angry man ever solved a problem without using a gun?" Weaver in the past has been a key member of Sen. John McCain's, R-Ariz., brain trust.

What about former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney? "What version are we on now?" Weaver asked. "Mitt 5.0? 6.0?"

Rep. Shelley Berkley, D-Nev., has a slight, five-point lead over Sen. Dean Heller, R-Nev., in the Nevada Senate race according to a poll conducted for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.

Berkley leads Heller 42 percent to 37 percent according to the survey, which was conducted by Democratic pollster Mark Mellman. The results are essentially unchanged from the previous survey the Mellman Group conducted from March 13-15, which showed Berkley leading Heller 42 percent to 38 percent.

In late April, Heller was appointed senator by Gov. Brian Sandoval following then-Sen. John Ensign's, R-Nev., decision to step down. Heller was sworn in on May 9. This is the first survey on the race released publicly since Heller joined the upper chamber. Heller's unfavorables have ticked up since the previous poll - climbing from 15 percent to 22 percent. His favorability is down slightly, from 36 percent to 34 percent. Berkley has a more positive image: 36 percent had a favorable view of her, while 19 percent had an unfavorable opinion.

The survey of 600 likely voters was conducted June 11-14 and carries a margin of error of +/- 4.0 percent. Jon Ralston has the full polling memo over at the Las Vegas Sun website.

It's worth noting, as Ralston points out, that Mellman polled for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's 2010 reelection campaign, and his numbers were on the mark while other public pollsters showed a tied race or slight leads for Reid's GOP opponent, Sharron Angle.

The Allentown Morning Call takes a closer look today at Sen. Bob Casey's, D-Pa., likability factor. Casey's personality is well-regarded, and the fact that he's not an antagonist along the lines of former Gov. Ed Rendell or former Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pa., is part of his appeal.

New Quinnipiac numbers out today show the first-term senator's job approval rating to be just under the 50 percent threshold that incumbents want to stay above (47 percent). President Obama's approval rating stands at 48 percent in the state, according to the same poll. While not overwhelmingly positive, the numbers are an encouraging sign for Casey (his approval rating has been on the rise since December of 2010) who has so far not attracted top-shelf GOP opponents.

I wrote in April about Sen. Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., who like Casey often sides with the president when it comes to votes in the upper chamber, but has managed to nonetheless appeal to a broad cross-section of the electorate. Klobuchar's work on consumer issues and other non-controversial measures has enhanced her own likability across party lines.

For Democrats running for reelection in 2012, politics matters, the climate matters (Republicans are coming off successful cycles in Minnesota and Pennsylvania) and Obama's approval rating does too, but a look at Klobuchar and Casey -- who so far have both avoided the tough reelection fights other Democratic incumbents find themselves in -- is a reminder that the candidate also matters.

One thing's for sure: former Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman won't be running a conventional presidential campaign, at least if we're judging him by an offbeat video he released today previewing his presidential kickoff.

The video features Huntsman riding a motorcross bike in the desert, while teasing that a big announcement is upcoming in six days. On the screen flashes the info-graphic: "Did not become famous with his band Wizard."

The non-traditional video is a hallmark of Huntsman's media consultant, Fred Davis, known for his quirky production techniques. He was famous last year for producing the ad from Delaware Senate candidate Christine O'Donnell, when she proclaims she is not a witch. Pundits criticized it, but it got lots of buzz. He also put together the famed "demon sheep" ad on behalf of California Senate candidate Carly Fiorina - another buzzworthy production.

Huntsman isn't the only Republican presidential candidate trying something new with his advertising. Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty has received attention for releasing campaign videos that look more like action movie trailers than political videos. But Huntsman's offering is a little more Coen Brothers than Michael Bay.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Perry heads to New York, Wisconsin's Supreme Court stands by Scott Walker, Pence raises some big bucks and a new ad in California is raising eyebrows. Here's today's rundown:

9) Newt Gingrich can't seem to catch a break these days. Last week, his campaign staff leaves him en masse and today TMZ has posted a picture of a topless Gingrich on vacation.

8) Quote of the day comes from Dana Milbank's Washington Post column after covering Romney: "In formal settings -- news conferences, or Monday night's debate -- Romney is confident and competent. But in casual moments, such as Tuesday morning's retail politics in New Hampshire, his weirdness comes through -- equal parts "Leave It to Beaver" corniness and social awkwardness."

Rep. Michele Bachmann's, R-Minn., announcement during the Republican debate shocked Stephen Colbert: "Someone in a presidential debate is running for president. That's like going to a wedding and the couple announces they've applied for a marriage license."

Conan O'Brien thought the debate participants were obsessed with who had the biggest family.

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 0:25, even CNN debate moderator John King can't tell the Republican candidates apart.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump!

On May 31, a St. Louis Post-Dispatch review of voting records revealed that Rep. Todd Akin, R-Mo., voted in the city of Town and Country even as documents showed he lived in the city of Wildwood; prompting criticism from Democrats that he was registered to vote at an incorrect address. Tuesday, the paper reported that Akin changed his voting registration to Wildwood on the same day.

The Senate candidate's office had defended Akin's continued voting in Town and Country, saying that although he lived in Wildwood, he was in the midst of a long transition in moving out of his ancestral home.

But now he may have made another misstep: ThinkProgress posted audio of Akin on St. Louis radio station KMOX comparing his situation to students and to U.S. troops voting in elections at home while stationed overseas and prompting more criticism from Democrats.

"Even students or people that are now serving in the military a lot of times, their home is really back at their home address and not in Fallujah or somewhere else, you know," he said. "I think if you take a look at the law, the law recognizes that."

"Todd Akin should know Wildwood is nothing like a combat zone," said Missouri Democratic Party spokesperson Caitlin Legacki.

Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., who announced her presidential campaign during Monday night's debate in New Hampshire, says she's not running for re-election to Congress while she's campaigning for her party's presidential nomination, the Associated Press reports.

State law permits Bachmann to drop out of the White House race and seek re-election to the House by June 5, 2012 -- the state's filing deadline. It's likely the Republican presidential nomination would be locked up by then, so if she wasn't the nominee, she'd have a path to switching back to a Congressional campaign.

A National Republican Congressional Committee source said late last month that the committee will not begin to recruit until Bachmann retires from Congress.

Former state Sen. Tarryl Clark, Bachmann's 2010 Democratic opponent, has announced she is running against freshman Rep. Chip Cravaack, R-Minn., in the 8th District. With redistricting, a lot is still up in the air -- but it appears Clark would be running in friendlier territory against Cravaack than against Bachmann.

Charlie Cook notes that in the Minnesota redistricting process, Bachmann's district will need to shed 100,000 residents, and "Democrats would love to eliminate [her seat] altogether, especially if she runs for Senate." But state GOP chair Tony Sutton points out that Republicans control the legislature, which is in charge of redrawing district boundaries.

Minnesota Republicans proposed a map last month that would essentially keep Bachmann's district intact, keeping its Cook Partisan Voter Index rating at R+7, according to data from the NRCC.

Redistricting "is not going to be an issue at all for her," Sutton said. "Even if you slice some of it off, it'll still be a conservative district."

2:20 p.m. Update: Well, so much for that rumor. Sims tells us there's nothing to the speculation that he'll run for governor.

"My family did not move out here, so my sons, my wife, my mother in law, my mother are all back in Seattle," he said. "After a while, you realize the day-to-day work and challenges and attention, you realize there's something just missing, and it's home life."

Ron Sims, the number two official at the Department of Housing and Urban Development, is leaving his post after about two years on the job, fueling speculation he will return home to Washington State and run for governor.

Sims, the former King County executive, told his staff in a letter obtained by the Seattle Times he will leave at the end of July to return to Seattle to be with his family.

"As rewarding as my two years at HUD have been professionally, they have been equally challenging to my family. Living more than 2,000 miles from those I love most is a burden I no longer wish to endure. While there is joy and relief in my decision to go home, it is with a heavy heart I say goodbye to all of you," Sims wrote to his employees.

The letter to employees gave no hints at his future plans, but the timing of his announcement raised eyebrows in Washington State, where Democratic Gov. Christine Gregoire said Monday she would not seek a third term. Gregoire won her first term in 2004, after beating Sims in the Democratic primary by a wide margin.

Sims was not immediately available for comment.

If Sims does return to Washington to run for governor, he would likely face Rep. Jay Inslee in the Democratic primary. Inslee, who lost a gubernatorial primary in 1996, has been making public moves toward another bid for years.

The winner of the Democratic primary would likely face state Attorney General Rob McKenna, a relatively moderate Republican who gives the GOP their best shot at winning the governor's race in years. No Republican has won the governor's mansion in Washington State since 1980, the longest uninterrupted streak of Democratic dominance in the nation.

Updated at 3:12 p.m.

Former Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman said Tuesday he will launch his presidential candidacy next week and offered a glimpse at how his foreign policy credentials could serve as the answer to the domestic concerns dominating the Republican primary.

Huntsman said Tuesday that improving the "weak economic core" in the United States will fortify the American position against its chief economic rival, China, creating an opening to exploit his resume in the spending-and-debt debate that is dominating the early stages of the campaign.

Appearing with former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger at a New York City panel on China, Huntsman told the audience he planned to announce his campaign next Tuesday. A source close to the campaign confirmed it will take place June 21 at Liberty State Park in New Jersey, affording a picturesque backdrop of the Statue of Liberty, and a symbolically significant link to the late President Ronald Reagan, who launched his 1980 campaign there.

President Obama's former envoy to Beijing revealed his plans in answer to abrupt question from Thomson Reuters Editor-at-Large Harry Evans about his campaign intentions.

"Is anybody listening to this broadcast?" Huntsman joked about the panel, which streamed online on the Reuters website. "Well, since we're in select company, and there aren't a lot of people listening in - I intend to announce that I will be a candidate for the presidency a week from today."

He added, "My family looks shocked and surprised because they are. I hadn't told them yet."

Updated at 11:37 a.m.

Three may be a crowd, but that's not stopping underdog candidate Greg Sowards from trying to leave an imprint on the GOP Senate race in New Mexico.

Sowards, who ran for Congress in the 2nd District in 2008 but lost in the GOP primary, is aiming to run to the right of both former Rep. Heather Wilson, R-N.M., and Lt. Gov. John Sanchez, and is up with a new television ad in which he takes on the two front-running Republicans on issues that could prove to be obstacles to each as the race progresses.

"Unlike the career politicians, Sowards will say no to hiring illegals, no to Wall Street bailouts," says the narrator of the ad, which was produced by Jason Miller of Jamestown Associates.

That's a reference to Wilson's 2008 TARP vote and criticism Sanchez took during his 2002 gubernatorial campaign over employing illegal immigrants at his roofing company.

Sowards' campaign says the ad will appear on cable for at least the next four weeks. The campaign would not comment on the specific size of the buy. A Republican source tracking the ad buy said it was just under $18,000.

Sowards -- who has already loaned his campaign $150,000 - may not ultimately be a threat to defeat Wilson or Sanchez, but his presence in the race could throw a wrench in either or both of their plans. The question is who Sowards hurts more.

"Probably Heather," wrote New Mexico Politics blogger Joe Monahan, of who the early spot harms more. "She is trying to redefine herself this cycle as a conservative candidate after being rejected as a moderate when she lost the 2008 GOP Senate nomination to Steve Pearce."

But Sowards also blasted Sanchez when the lieutenant governor entered the race, saying "Sanchez will now try to paint himself as a conservative, hoping that Republican voters will see past his moderate voting record and a career full of unfulfilled political promises." If Sanchez is trying to stake out ground to the right of Wilson and establish himself as the conservative voice in the race, the last thing he needs is someone calling him out from his own right.

Check out Sowards' ad after the jump.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Romney and Bachmann looking good after the presidential debate, Pawlenty not so much. Tammy Duckworth could be a House candidate again soon while President Obama takes on Anthony Weiner. Here's today's rundown:

8) Hacked! A group claimed responsibility for hacking the U.S. Senate website. A Senate spokesperson said Monday that the hackers did not infiltrate any Senate computers, or the government firewall.

7) Bill Clinton endorsed Democrat Janice Hahn in the CA-36 special election Monday. Endorsements tend to mean much more in primaries, but still, the rolling out of Clinton's support about a month in advance of the July 12 election and Hahn's decision to go negative in her first TV ad against Republican Craig Huey shows she's taking his tea party support and ability to self-fund seriously.

6) Rep. John Lewis, D-Ga., a civil rights icon, is facing an African-American primary challenger (former judge Michael Johnson) who is attacking him for being out of touch with the issues affecting the black community today.

Lewis' response: "If it hadn't been for what I and others did 45 and 50 years ago, he wouldn't be able to run."

Conan O'Brien unveils the latest batch of scandalous photos of Rep. Anthony Weiner, D-N.Y.

Jon Stewart, on the media coverage of the released Sarah Palin emails, "That wasn't even a question. It was like some bizarre existential riddle."

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 2:00, some voters are still supporting Weiner.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump!

Updated at 10:27 p.m.

Throughout the evening, National Journal editors will provide analysis of the GOP presidential debate in New Hampshire. Also be sure to follow @njhotline and @nationaljournal on Twitter for more.

Ron Fournier: The mitts were off Mitt. Romney received a pass from a strikingly timid field of rivals in Monday night's debate. Given chances to attack the early front-runner on health care reform, abortion and his history of flip-flopping, the rest of the GOP field pulled its punches. At one point, moderator John King asked if it was time to put the issue of Romney's authenticity to rest. That's like asking a lion whether it's time to stop chasing deer, and yet King's question went unanswered save for one barely audible, "Yes" from one of the candidates. There's a rule of thumb in political debates: When a front-runner leaves the stage unscathed, he's still the front-runner. And, thus, regardless of the sound and fury of the debate itself, he wins.

Ron Brownstein: Pawlenty and Bachmann may have delivered the most vibrant performances. But Romney did well by emerging unscarred; he was comfortable and confident, if not especially compelling.

Reid Wilson: Evidence Romney tried to soar above the crowd: His post-debate statement doesn't even include the standard "strongest on stage" clause. Full statement: "Mitt Romney was honored to participate in the debate tonight to bring his strong economic message to New Hampshire. Americans want a president who will make creating jobs and controlling spending their number one priority. 14 million Americans are unemployed, and our nation is facing record deficits and unprecedented debt. In the private sector, Mitt Romney grew businesses and created jobs. As governor, he turned a deficit into a surplus. President Obama took office with no leadership experience in the private sector and his record speaks for itself: historic unemployment and job losses. Mitt Romney believes Americans deserve better."

Josh Kraushaar: What a difference four years makes: While the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and counterterrorism were a dominant theme in 2008, national security and foreign policy took a clear backseat to economic and social issues - relegated to the tail end of the debate. Even more notable: Romney sounded more like Ron Paul than George W. Bush on Afghanistan, saying it's "time for us to bring our troops home as soon as we possibly can." And several of the candidates expressed skepticism on our intervention in Libya. Safe bet: with foreign policy on the backburner, don't expect Rudy Giuliani to enter the race.

Reid Wilson: Pawlenty's Bruins shout-out at the very end is part of a pattern: He tends to give an answer he thinks the audience wants to hear. Recalls his frequent mentions of Lady Gaga and Charlie Sheen during stops in front of younger voters in Iowa in April. Pawlenty has openly said he wants to be "every person's candidate." Could that start hurting him?

Tim Alberta: With the collegial tone of this event you'd almost think the candidates made a pre-debate pact to adhere to Reagan's 11th amendment. Pawlenty passed on the chance to double down on "Obamneycare." Santorum wouldn't take a shot at Pawlenty's audacious tax plan, nor would he disparage Romney's abortion flip-flopping when presented with a golden opportunity to do so. And several other questions that seemed destined to produce back-and-forth sniping fizzled without confrontation. The many observers anticipating high profile head-to-head clashes tonight are walking away disappointed.

On stage with six other White House hopefuls at a debate in New Hampshire, Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., announced Monday that she has filed paperwork with the Federal Election Commission to establish a presidential campaign committee, putting to rest months of speculation that the tea party firebrand would jump into the Republican race. Her official announcement will come later this month in Waterloo, Iowa.

The decision by Bachmann, 55, gives the field an outspoken, telegenic female contender with an enthusiastic band of conservative followers--a role that once appeared to be destined for the GOP's 2008 vice presidential nominee, Sarah Palin. While Palin has remained noncommittal about a presidential race, Bachmann's embrace of the tea party movement has vaulted her from a virtual political unknown when she was first elected to Congress five years ago to one of Time magazine's 100 most influential people of 2011.

Bachmann also boasts roots in the evangelical community - an asset that could help her bridge the divide between social conservatives and the fiscally-focused tea party.

One striking sign of her appeal: In the first quarter of this year, her fundraising bested that of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, the presumed front runner of the Republican presidential field.

In a May interview, Bachmann told National Journal that 2012 is the year for leaders to emerge from outside the traditional GOP power centers.

"I think the country's in a situation right now where we can't take an establishment candidate from either party," she said. "We need someone new and different and bold who's to do say what they mean and mean what they say, and do it, even if it means being a one-term president, and that's what I'm willing to do."

But the three-term congresswoman from suburban Minneapolis-St. Paul faces a daunting historical challenge: Just three of the sitting House members who have run for president made it to the general election ballot. Only one was successful: Republican James Garfield in 1880.

Connecticut's Republican Senate primary, which has been quiet during the past few months, has seen an uptick in action over the past couple of weeks. But there are still more questions than answers about the shape of the GOP contest.

"I can't explain it other than it is the end of the legislative session ... that tends to get people talking about races, now that we've all bludgeoned each other on the budget," said outgoing Connecticut GOP Chair Chris Healy, when asked why there has been a notable increase in activity. "You want to get out there before the summer kicks in and people aren't really paying attention," he added.

Former U.S. Comptroller General David Walker has emerged as a possible candidate in recent weeks. Walker has appeared on national television confirming his interest in the race, and GOP sources have confirmed that he has spoken with Republican leaders in the state.

Meanwhile, former Rep. Chris Shays, R-Conn., told Roll Call late last week that he's "very interested" in running. Shays faced a mountain of debt after he lost in 2008 -- thanks to his campaign manager, who was later sentenced for embezzling campaign funds.

MANCHESTER, N.H. -- Voters looking for fireworks at Monday's GOP presidential primary debate in New Hampshire might want to focus on the candidates they don't recognize on stage.

That's because some of the underdogs seem to have less qualms about throwing punches. A nationally televised debate is one of their few chances to get noticed.

"I think it's a night to begin drawing contrasts," said former Godfather's Pizza CEO Herman Cain during a stop Monday afternoon at a Heritage Foundation forum at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics.

Cain has been rising in the polls since a strong performance in a May 5 debate in South Carolina, which most of the major candidates skipped.

Also appearing at the pre-debate forum was former Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pa. "You can trust that what I say is what I do," he said, adding, "that's a real strength for me that I think is not a strength for some of the other candidates."

Which ones?

Some Michigan Republicans are taking to the ice to find a candidate to challenge Sen. Debbie Stabenow, D-Mich.

The Detroit News reports that Dennis Lennox, a member of the Cheboygan County Republican Party, said he and other Republicans are courting a retired Detroit Red Wings hockey player to run. He would not identify the player.

"The player in question that we are trying to recruit is very well-known to Michiganders and would be well-positioned to hit the ground running and defeat Senator Stabenow," Lennox said.

Former state GOP Chair Saul Anuzis announced Sunday he will not run, following in the footsteps of other prominent Republicans who have also passed on the race, including former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land and former Rep. Pete Hoekstra, R-Mich.

Anuzis wrote on his blog Sunday that he has encouraged radio show host Frank Beckmann, Cornerstone Schools co-founder Clark Durant and Oakland County Drain Commissioner John McCullough to run.

So far, the GOP field includes businessman Peter Konetchy, Randy Hekman -- a pastor and former juvenile court judge -- and Chad Dewey, who is running as a conservative constitutionalist. None are viewed as serious threats to Stabenow.

Lennox told the News that former Red Wings Center Steve Yzerman is not the name in question, nor is the mystery person two-time Stanley Cup winner Doug Brown.

Lennox also noted that the former player being considered was born in Canada but is now an American citizen.

Yeah, that should narrow it down.

Updated at 1:18 p.m.

Washington Democratic Gov. Christine Gregoire announced Monday that she will not run for a third term as governor.

"This morning I told my staff, my cabinet and dear friends that I will not seek a third term as governor. After much thought and discussion, I know it's the right decision for me and my family," the governor said in a statement.

Gregoire, the second female governor in Washington state history, has served as governor since 2005, following a narrow defeat of Republican Dino Rossi in 2004. She defeated Rossi once again in 2008 to win a second term. Gregoire's likely to serve as a surrogate for President Obama in 2012, a Democratic source close to governor said.

Gregoire's decision does not come as a surprise, and clears the way for Rep. Jay Inslee, D-Wash., who has been gearing up for a bid, to fully pursue a campaign. Inslee's made no secret of the fact that he is eying a statewide bid; a March fundraising invitation from the 1st District congressman mentioned the possibility of a gubernatorial run.

What's more, Democrats are already exploring bids for Inslee's seat. Laura Ruderman, a former state rep., recently filed to run for Inslee's seat, anticipating that Inslee will leave to run for governor.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. On the eve of a big debate, Pawlenty zings Romney, Saul Anuzis passes on a Senate bid, and Anthony Weiner passes on resigning from Congress -- even in the face of public pressure from party leadership. Here's today's rundown:

10) Sure, there's Weiner news and an important presidential debate tonight, but we thought we'd kickoff your week with this story: "Obama the Llama" was fatally injured by three dogs earlier this month in Alaska.

Obama, a black and white llama was born a year ago, and his mom died while giving birth, so he was christened "Obama the llama with no mama," his owner said. The Peninsula Clarion has the full story here.

9) Rep. Mike Pence, R-Ind., kicked off his gubernatorial campaign over the weekend, but does not appear to be in any rush to discuss specific policy reforms right away.

8) Unwind with a little ... Ludwig? Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., is an admirer of economist Ludwig Van Mises. She told the Wall Street Journal: "When I go on vacation and I lay on the beach, I bring von Mises."

Bill Maher, on Newt Gingrich's campaign staff quitting en masse, "His staff got mad at him because he spent the last two weeks campaigning in the wrong country ... He's been on a yacht touring the Greek isles. Stopping only at Tiffany's on his mission to warn America that Obama is an elitist."

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward 0:50, when Leno reveals footage from Rep. Anthony Weiner's, D-N.Y., high school days.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump!

MANCHESTER, N.H. -- On the eve of his first nationally televised matchup with Republican front-runner Mitt Romney, presidential candidate Tim Pawlenty laid down the gauntlet with a cutting phrase: "Obamneycare."

The double-edged epithet yokes the health care overhaul Romney signed as governor of Massachusetts to the sweeping reforms spearheaded by President Obama. Both plans require everyone to buy insurance so that both the healthy and sick can receive benefits, but many Republicans view the so-called "individual mandate" as a budget-busting threat to personal freedom.

Pawlenty first used the term "Obamneycare" in a morning interview on Fox News Sunday that the campaign echoed via e-mail and Twitter in a calculated bid for attention.

"I was just making the point that the president himself is the one who said the blueprint for Obamacare was the Massachusetts health care plan and merged it essentially into Obamneycare," Pawlenty told reporters Sunday evening after mingling with voters at a brick-walled tavern in Derry, about 15 miles southeast of Monday's GOP debate.

Romney has maintained that his state plan differed from Obama's "federal takeover," which he wants to repeal. "Republicans should keep the focus on President Obama's failure to create jobs and control spending," Romney spokeswoman Andrea Saul said in a statement.

Another representative of the Romney campaign, Eric Fehrnstrom, commented Sunday on Twitter that Romney "left behind $2.3 billion IN CASH for his successor," a thinly disguised criticism of Pawlenty leaving a $5 billion projected deficit in the state of Minnesota after he left the governor's office.

What we at The Hotline learned this week about the 2012 presidential race:

-- A big week in the presidential field: Newt Gingrich's campaign implodes, Mitt Romney's relentless focus on the economy is paying dividends, and Rick Perry now looks he may shake up the race. One safe guess: conventional wisdom will be turned on its head repeatedly before it's all over.

-- Here's one indirect beneficiary, if Perry runs: former Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert. Anything that keeps Perry outside of Texas, either in the short or long term, probably helps keep Lt. Gov David Dewhurst focused on his own duties and the governor's mansion. If Dewhurst decides not to run for the Senate, due to the uncertainty of Perry's fortunes, that would leave the self-funding Leppert as the best-financed candidate in the race. It would also allow the more moderate, establishment end of the Texas Republican Party to unify behind a candidate in advance of a tough campaign against former Texas Solicitor General Ted Cruz or another Tea Party-backed candidate.

-- While Gingrich lost just about all of his staff this week, on the other end of the spectrum, Romney enjoyed a very productive week that showed once again how he's applying valuable lessons learned from 2008 to avoid repeat mistakes this time around. The latest example is his decision to skip straw polls in Iowa, Florida and Michigan, highly unpredictable contests that can help long-shots and hurt front-runners. Romney stood to lose more from poor showings than he would have gained from positive ones, and is smart to stay above the fray.

-- Meanwhile, Romney received a boost without lifting a finger when Monday's underwhelming jobs report showed a slight uptick in unemployment, providing him with an ideal platform to continue making his aggressive case that President Obama's economic policies have "failed" the country. Every day that he spends on the offensive over jobs and unemployment is another day he doesn't have to play defense over auto bailouts, climate change or Romneycare.

-- Romney wasn't the only one who had a good week: Tim Pawlenty's economic speech in Chicago this week brought him praise from the Wall Street Journal's editorial board and the Club for Growth.

-- And who, besides Gingrich, also had a bad week? Iowa, which was snubbed by former Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman earlier in the week, only to later be snubbed by Romney, who is not going to participate in the Iowa straw poll in August.

What we at The Hotline learned this week:

-- Never mind the Dow (which is lousy lately), or the unemployment rate (which just ticked up) or any other economic indicator. The average American doesn't feel the recovery, and they're increasingly convinced it doesn't exist - especially when gas prices go up so much that it starts impacting a family's weekly budget. That pervasive pessimism is going to have a dramatic impact on several election cycles to come.

-- The number of Republican governors watching their approval ratings sink into the mud is a stark reminder of just how fast politics changes. It's also a reminder of the dangers of believing electoral wins are a mandate for their own agenda, when voters clearly mean to punish the incumbent party.

-- Even as top Democratic leaders called for his resignation Saturday, Rep. Anthony Weiner, D-N.Y., is pursuing treatment and a leave of absence, instead of immediately stepping down. Still, the possibility that he steps aside at some point raises questions about another possible New York special election. There's a handful of councilmen and local lawmakers who will be battling in the cut-throat back channels of Brooklyn/Queens politics for a chance to succeed Weiner, but Republicans have several good options too. The district isn't the most Democratic in New York City, and special elections play havoc with turnout models.

Another possibility being chatted about -- legislators need to conveniently axe a New York City district, and while this one could have been safe, the email/twitter revelations may have opened the gate for an easy solution in Albany.

-- The GOP field in the Connecticut Senate race finally saw some action this week. First, attorney Brian Hill, a long shot candidate, became the first Republican to enter the race. Then, former Rep. Chris Shays, R-Conn., said he was giving a run serious consideration. A moderate with name recognition who lost his seat in 2008, he could be an interesting candidate.

--Former Ruth's Chris CEO Craig Miller is on the very of entering the crowded GOP primary in the Florida Senate race. Looking at the current field, Miller sees an opportunity, and he might be right -- the three leading Republicans in the race all have faced early struggles. There does seem to be a void in the field, but whether Miller is the candidate to fill it remains to be seen.

-- Rep. Dan Boren's, D-Okla., announcement that he won't seek another term will make the group of moderate to conservative Democrats within the caucus even smaller, following 28 Blue Dogs who either retired or were defeated last cycle.

Three top Democratic leaders all sounded calls on Saturday for embattled Rep. Anthony Weiner, D-N.Y., to resign - the clearest sign yet that support from his party has completely evaporated after the married congressman admitted Monday he had sent lewd photographs through social media to several women.

Within minutes of each other, Democratic National Committee Chairman Debbie Wasserman Schultz, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi and Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Steve Israel sent statements all calling for Weiner to step down

While several of Weiner's other Democratic colleagues had slowly suggested Weiner should resign, the orchestrated blitz from the party's top officials is the loudest public message yet after Weiner has repeatedly said he intends to remain in office.

The weekend calls also come the day after Delaware authorities began looking into Weiner's messages to a 17-year-old girl, although both Weiner and the girl's family have said there was no improper communication between the two.

"It is with great disappointment that I call on Representative Anthony Weiner to resign," said Wasserman Schultz. "The behavior he has exhibited is indefensible and Representative Weiner's continued service in Congress is untenable. This sordid affair has become an unacceptable distraction for Representative Weiner, his family, his constituents and the House - and for the good of all, he should step aside and address those things that should be most important - his and his family's well-being."

Israel, a fellow New York congressman and head of the Democrats' efforts to regain the House, also called for Weiner to step down. Earlier this week, the DCCC's recruitment chairman, Rep. Allyson Schwartz, D-Pa., also said publicly Weiner should resign.

"Anthony's inappropriate behavior has become an insurmountable distraction to the House and our work for the American people. With a heavy heart, I call on Anthony to resign," said Israel. "I pray for his family and hope that Anthony will take time to get the help he needs without the distractions and added pressures of Washington, DC."

Pelosi had declined to call for Weiner to resign all this week, saying his constituents should decide his fate, although the Democratic House Leader did ask the House ethics panel to officially investigate Weiner's sending of explicit messages.

"Congressman Weiner has the love of his family, the confidence of his constituents, and the recognition that he needs help," said Pelosi. "I urge Congressman Weiner to seek that help without the pressures of being a Member of Congress."

With Congress back in session on Monday, this weekend's shows will pick up again with the looming debt ceiling debate. Also on the agenda is the 2012 presidential campaign, with both former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty and former Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pa. answering questions about the state of the economy, their ideas to fix it and what differentiates them from the rest of the Republican contenders in the 2012 field. And don't be surprised if the topic of Rep. Anthony Weiner, D-N.Y., comes up, too.

NBC's "Meet the Press" will hold the first debate between DNC Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz and RNC Chair Reince Priebus. The two will discuss the central issues of the 2012 campaign. Santorum will also talk about his presidential campaign.

CBS' "Face the Nation" will look at what to expect out of the "gang of five" and where Medicare reform will end up in that debate with House Democratic Minority Whip Steny Hoyer and Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis. Moderater Bob Schieffer will sit down with Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., to discuss the future of Afghanistan and the role of the U.S. there.

Over on cable, CNN's "State of the Union" will preview their Monday debate in New Hampshire with former state Gov. John H. Sununu Sr. and former Sen. John Sununu Jr., R-N.H. Meanwhile, "FOX News Sunday" sits down with Pawlenty to discuss his proposed measures on fixing the economy.

Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, will appear on Univision's "Al Punto" to discuss the "Fast and Furious" strategy which allowed weapons to cross the Mexican border on both sides, causing several casualties including a border patrol agent. Also on hand: Guatemala presidential candidate Gen. Otto Pérez Molina and Peru's newly elected Pres. Ollanta Humala.

ABC hadn't released their lineup by the time of publishing.

Get the full listings after the jump.

No, the first Republican to enter the race for retiring-Sen. Joe Lieberman's, ID-Conn., seat isn't Linda McMahon or former U.S. Comptroller General David Walker, but Brian K. Hill, a Hartford attorney and former active duty military officer who ran as an independent write-in candidate in 2010 and received only 559 votes.

Hill joined the Republican Party a few months ago, according to his spokesperson, Brian Hamel.

"I'm not a self-financed millionaire looking for something to do," Hill says in his announcement video, in what appears to be a veiled swipe at McMahon.

McMahon is still giving the race close consideration and Walker has generated some recent buzz.

Rep. Stephen Fincher, R-Tenn., was one of the media's favorite subjects for profiling in the run-up to the 2010 elections. The Washington Post and the Wall Street Journal, among others, spotlighted the man they dubbed the "Farmer from Frog Jump" and his stewardship of a 2,500-acre farm that's been in his family for seven generations.

But in Washington, Fincher has a decidedly different priority. Last month, Fincher won a coveted appointment to the House Financial Services Committee -- a move that forced him to give up his spot on the Agriculture Committee.

"I am honored to join such a distinguished and prominent committee in the House of Representatives. During these times of economic uncertainty, the House Financial Services Committee will play an important role in creating jobs and fostering an environment that allows businesses to grow," Fincher said in a press release announcing the move. "I am confident that my real world business experience will bring a strong frame-of-reference to the Committee and assist in developing strong public policy to turn our economy around."

Fincher will no doubt reap the other great benefit of the Financial Services Committee: It's a lot more lucrative to serve on a panel that interests banking lobbyists than on a panel that handles agriculture policy. Fincher was one of the better-funded first-time candidates in 2010.

But with a farm bill coming up next year, what would Fincher's rural constituents -- who make up 53 percent of his district -- think about his move?

Fincher spokeswoman Sara Sendek tells us: "Financial Services is a tremendous opportunity to allow agriculture interests to be addressed. Access to capital, lending and ability to hedge risk are the cornerstones for agriculture success. Congressman Fincher's background running his family farm brings forth a perspective that has not been heard on the Committee, especially as Congress is revisiting Dodd-Frank, which would restrict capital once fully implemented."

August may be a slow, muggy month in Washington, but some 5,000 miles away in the Aloha State, expect to see some action surrounding the race for retiring-Sen. Daniel Akaka's, D-Hawaii, seat.

Rep. Colleen Hanabusa, D-Hawaii, will decide by August whether to make a Senate bid, the Honolulu Star-Advertiser reports today. Former GOP Gov. Linda Lingle will also make up her mind by that month, and their decisions could upend what has so far been a relatively slow moving race.

Hanabusa told Honolulu Civil Beat: "I think a decision has to be made by probably August, because the (2012) primary election was moved to August. You have to somewhere around that time know which way you are going -- maybe not making public your announcement then, because other factors play into it."

Currently, former Rep. Ed Case, D-Hawaii, and Rep. Mazie Hirono, D-Hawaii, are the two candidates in the contest, but if Hanabusa gets in, Case -- a more centrist Democrat -- could stand to benefit, as support could be split between the state's two reps. By the same token, if Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann -- another moderate -- gets in, he could steal away some of Case's support.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Gingrich's team jumps ship as the Perry intrigue only ramps up more. Plus, Romney's no straw (poll) man and Mark Foley (!) weighs on Weiner's predicament. Here's today's rundown:

9) Want to spend some time with Bill Clinton? You can! Once again, the former president is raffling off his time to help Secretary of State Hillary Clinton retire more debt from her 2008 presidential campaign.

8) Is there a potential scandal brewing in Denver? Denver affiliate ABC7 reports that before the mayoral election, Denver Mayor-elect Michael Hancock asked Denver police if he or his vehicle was photographed at an escort service. Hancock has maintained he never visited the escort service and his attorney said he was just trying to help clear Hancock's name, a misspelled version of which appeared on a client phone list and appointment logs for the escort service, according to ABC7. Read the full story here.

Conan O'Brien gets help dispensing jokes from Rep. Anthony Weiner's, D-N.Y., underwear.

Jon Stewart employs a, "game of chance," to help him report on stories covered up by the "Weinergate" scandal.

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 2:10 for Herman Cain's new campaign slogan.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump!

Kentucky Gov. Steve Beshear (D) holds a commanding lead over his Republican opponent David Williams, according to a new poll released late Thursday, and holds a favorability rating among the highest of any governor.

The poll, conducted for the in-state cable-news channel cn|2, shows Beshear and his running mate, former Louisville Mayor Jerry Abramson, leading the GOP ticket of Williams, the state Senate president, and Agriculture Commissioner Richie Farmer, 51 percent to 30 percent, among likely voters. Independent candidate Gatewood Galbraith took six percent, and 14 percent were undecided.

In a previous cn|2 poll, conducted in late February and early March, the Beshear ticket led the Williams ticket by a smaller, ten-point margin, 48 percent to 38 percent.

The new poll follows a recent TV ad campaign from Beshear, which touts his work on trying to improve the state's flagging economy. Beshear is seeking a second term after defeating former Gov. Ernie Fletcher (R) in 2007.

"There's been a debate about whether the TV is effective," former Louisville Courier-Journal political writer Al Cross told cn|2.

"I don't think it's winning any votes to speak of, but it's helping him with the perception battle."

The poll shows that an overwhelming majority of likely voters approves of the job Beshear is doing: 65 percent approve of Beshear, while just 30 percent disapprove.

Williams also has a positive favorability rating (41 percent favorable/31 percent unfavorable), with 29 percent unsure. While there is some room for growth for Williams, his numbers are dwarfed by Beshear's 68 percent favorability rating, compared to 25 percent who view the incumbent unfavorably.

Mitt Romney's campaign has just confirmed that the presumed front runner in the 2012 presidential campaign will not be participating in several high profile straw polls this year, prompting immediate pushback from at least one state party chairman.

Romney plans to take a pass on contests in Iowa (where he hasn't seemed prepared to compete anyway), Florida and Michigan.

Here's the statement from Matt Rhoades, Romney's campaign manager:

"Our campaign has made the decision to not participate in any straw polls, whether it's in Florida, Iowa, Michigan or someplace else. We respect the straw poll process. In the last presidential campaign we were both strengthened as an organization and learned some important lessons by participating in them. This time we will focus our energies and resources on winning primaries and caucuses. We look forward to bringing Mitt Romney's strong pro-jobs message to every part of the country."

That rationale did not impress Iowa GOP Chairman Matt Strawn, who suggested that Romney was sabotaging a key party-building event.

At least one spokesman is staying on Newt Gingrich's otherwise imploding campaign. He just won't say who's joining him.

Press aide Joe DeSantis told Hotline On Call in an e-mail that he is "enthusiastically" staying on the former Speaker of the House's presidential campaign, even amid a mass exodus of senior staffers. But when asked who else is staying, DeSantis demurred.

"Will pass on commenting on that," he said.

Gingrich has said he will continue his campaign, and is set to make an appearance in Los Angeles on Sunday. He's also still scheduled to participate in the GOP presidential debate Monday in New Hampshire.

A majority of voters in embattled Rep. Anthony Weiner's, D-N.Y., congressional district does not think Weiner should resign, according to a new NY1-Marist poll released late Thursday.

According to the one-day poll, conducted Wednesday, just 33 percent of voters in New York's Ninth Congressional District think Weiner should resign from the House, while 56 percent do not think he should resign.

Men have rendered a faster verdict on Weiner, with 35 percent saying he should resign, and 60 percent saying he should not. A higher percentage of women -- 17 percent -- are undecided, with 31 percent saying Weiner should resign, and 52 percent saying he should not.

Voters under age 45 are less likely to say he should resign (22 percent) than voters over 45 (36 percent), but majorities of both age groups say he should not resign.

Voters are more split on whether Weiner can still be effective if he does not resign: 48 percent of voters say he will still be effective in carrying out his congressional responsibilities, while 43 percent say he will be either "not very effective" or "not effective at all."

Businessman Bill Maloney went after acting West Virginia Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin today, calling on the Democratic gubernatorial nominee and the state Legislature to eliminate the state's food tax.

"Earl Ray Tomblin and his pals created this tax and let it eat away at family budgets for 20 years," Maloney said in a release. "Reducing the food tax by a penny here or a penny there isn't leadership. West Virginia families deserve immediate and total relief from this unfair tax. We must end the food tax now."

But what Maloney doesn't mention in the release is that Tomblin, his opponent in the state's gubernatorial race, fought successfully earlier this year to cut the food tax from 3 percent to 2 percent -- and has said he hoped to eliminate it completely in 2012 if the economy continued sufficiently.

"We need results in government, not more of the same," said Maloney. "Earl Ray Tomblin hasn't led on this issue. I will."

Maloney's spokesperson Matt Dabrowski argued that reducing the tax earlier this year was too little, too late. Leadership "isn't about incremental actions eventually getting rid of an objectionable tax," said Dabrowski. "Bill Maloney's saying that we need leadership on this issue, we need to get rid of this tax. Not over 5 years or 10 years or 15 years. If a tax is onerous and hurts West Virginians it ought to go. If it's costing us jobs, it ought to go -- and it ought to go today."

The exchange also shows how little room there is between two the candidates. Going after an opponent on food taxes is not exactly a blockbuster attack. Their narratives are different -- Tomblin is a longtime political insider while Maloney has never held public office -- but on a number of issues, their views are not that far apart.

The state's special gubernatorial election will take place on October 4.

(Updated at 6:10 p.m.)

Among the first Democrats to call on scandal-plagued Rep. Anthony Weiner, D-N.Y., to resign: Senate candidates running in battleground states - a sign that Democrats are concerned the scandal could impact their prospects.

Rep. Joe Donnelly, D-Ind., and former Democratic National Committee Chairman Tim Kaine were among the first Democrats to call on Weiner to step down, which he has declined to do so far.

Rep. Shelley Berkley, D-Nev., who is running against Sen. Dean Heller, R-Nev., was less emphatic. Like Donnelly and Kaine, Berkley is running in a battleground Senate race. But as Nevada political analyst Jon Ralston noted last night, Weiner and Berkley are "close" -- they have frequently worked together on legislation pertaining to Israel.

Sometimes the spin from the White House is more telling based on what isn't said than what is.

That seems to be the case today, with President Obama's re-election advisers pitching the case that Virginia and North Carolina - and possibly, both - are must-win states for the president. Left unsaid: if those traditionally GOP states are becoming must-win, there has to be some serious atrophy in other parts of the country where Obama has done well.

Obama has plenty of paths to victory without winning the two upper South states - in fact, he could lose North Carolina and Virginia and Ohio and Florida (and Indiana, which they've all but written off) by hanging onto all the other states he carried in 2008.

Those comments read like the White House is losing ground in traditionally favorable places (Nevada? Pennsylvania? Iowa? New Hampshire?), and need to make up for it with strong performances in states that are, demographically, trending their direction.

Don't get me wrong: both states should be aggressively contested by the president's re-election team. I've already written about how important Virginia is for Democrats' prospects in 2012, and likewise, the suburban growth in North Carolina combined with its large African-American population certainly makes it winnable, under the right circumstances.

But by putting the Tarheel State in close to the must-win category, they're unwittingly showing a sign of weakness. To be blunt, even with demographic change and the Democratic convention being held in Charlotte, North Carolina will be a tough state for the president to hold.

Consider: he won the state in 2008 by the narrowest of margins, 14,000 votes - boosted on the heels of historic African-American turnout that's unlikely to be repeated again. White House strategists are already acknowledging that, with the down economy, they're losing ground across the country from their position three years ago. It would be fairly historic for Obama to gain ground in North Carolina (which he essentially needs to win it) if he's regressing elsewhere.

Indeed, recent presidential re-elections show it's exceptionally hard to be losing ground in most states, but gaining ground (or holding one's own) in another one. (Or vice versa.)

Members of Congress in both parties don't believe the controversial Medicare reforms drafted by the House Republican Budget Committee chairman Paul Ryan will be a part of an eventual agreement to raise the debt ceiling, according to the results of this week's National Journal Congressional Insiders Poll. Democratic Members were near unanimous in saying that the Ryan proposal wouldn't make the cut, but a solid majority of Republicans concurred.

Democratic and Republican Members of Congress don't expect that an eventual deal on the increasing the debt ceiling will include a provision for a constitutional amendment to balance the budget, according to this week's National Journal Congressional Insiders Poll.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Palin releases a new video, but a new poll shows she does not have a lot of GOP support. Meanwhile, Pawlenty and Huntsman court congressional support and is Weiner getting a crisis manager? Here's today's rundown:

9) Not bringing the bow tie back to Bridgetown: Rep. Earl Blumenauer, D-Ore., says he won't run for mayor of Portland and will decide on whether he will run for another term in Congress later this year.

8) Keep a close eye on Texas: Gov. Rick Perry has reportedly privately said he is worried there is a void in the GOP presidential field and he's sounding like he's seeking to fill it.

Of the potential "wish list" candidates some Republicans have, Perry would be among the most formidable, and could emerge as the only sitting governor in the field.

7) It's no lie! Rep. Joe Wilson, R-S.C., will be Tim Pawlenty's campaign co-chair in South Carolina - a big get for the former Minnesota governor. Wilson is the second member of Congress to back Pawlenty, following Rep. John Kline, R-Minn. Unlike Kline, Wilson hails from a critical state in the GOP nomination process.

Pawlenty isn't the only one courting Congressional support: Former Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman dined with Sens. John Thune, R-S.D., Tom Coburn, R-Okla., Saxby Chambliss, R-Ga., and Richard Burr, R-N.C., Wednesday in Washington.

In the midst of promoting a new book and mulling a Senate run, former Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell did something a bit unorthodox on Monday when he endorsed a Senate candidate in another state: former Florida House Majority Leader Adam Hasner, currently engaged in a 3-way Republican primary with state Senate President Mike Haridopolos and former Sen. George LeMieux.

But Hasner isn't willing to return the favor and offer his support should Blackwell run -- at least not yet.

"Right now he's focused on his book," Hasner told Hotline On Call. "So let's go out and help him sell as many copies of his book, and when he decides to announce, we'll deal with that when the time comes."

Hasner also went after his opponents in the Florida Senate race, where Haridopolos has been facing criticism for his recent performance on a radio show where he would not say whether he would vote yes or no on Rep. Paul Ryan's, R-Wis., budget plan. Hasner voiced early support for the plan, while LeMieux first hedged and eventually said he would have voted for it.

"This is the time when we need courageous leaders, people who aren't afraid to say what needs to be said or do what needs to be done, and people who aren't going to stick their finger in the wind to see which way its blowing in order to decide what they believe," said Hasner.

Hasner and Blackwell have come out more strongly in support of the Ryan plan than most other Senate candidates and potential candidates.

Hasner also said that when they were "advancing bold reforms" while he was serving in the Florida House, Haridopolos and LeMieux -- via his then-boss, former Gov. Charlie Crist -- were opposing the changes.

An eagerly anticipated fight in the looming presidential campaign seems to be underway.

First, Ed Rollins, a longtime GOP strategist who once worked for Ronald Reagan and who recently signed on with Rep. Michele Bachmann's, R-Minn., presumptive presidential campaign, trashed fomer Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin for not being "serious over the last couple of years" in a radio interview. The next day, Team Palin struck back.

"Beltway political strategist Ed Rollins has a long, long track record of taking high profile jobs and promptly sticking his foot in his mouth," SarahPAC Chief of Staff Michael Glassner, another GOP veteran who once worked for former Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole, said in a statement. "To no one's surprise he has done it again, while also fueling a contrived narrative about the presidential race by the mainstream media."

A feisty back-and-forth this early in the game -- and just days after Rollins was first reported to be all-but-official in heading up Bachmann's camp -- is a telling sign that even as the Tea Party stars continue to insist they're friends, playing nice will likely take a back seat should both decide to get in the race.

Rep. Bob Filner, D-Calif., is expected to file today for next year's San Diego mayoral race, the San Diego Union-Tribune reports.

With the already-crowded contest slated for next June, Filner couldn't run for reelection to his House seat as well, making him the eleventh current representative to seek another office next cycle.

And it appears Filner is already eying that contest next year anyway - with 10News San Diego reporting that the 10-term congressman has actually moved out of Chula Vista in his 51st congressional district and instead into downtown San Diego as he ramps up for a run.

Filner's office has not responded to a request for comment from Hotline On Call, and several other local papers also noted the congressman's office has not commented on either his expected filing or his move.

One reason for Filner to look at a different office is the impending redistricting in the Golden State. The first maps are due out Friday, and Filner's Imperial County seat has seen high Hispanic growth - and he could face a primary challenge. His old primary foe, now-state Sen. Juan Carlos Vargas, who has challenged him three times before, could be looking at the race. If Filner does exit, several other Democrats would also likely take a hard look at this seat.

However, Filner wouldn't have a clear shot in the mayoral race either. As many as four contenders are already eying the race, and outgoing San Diego Mayor Jerry Sanders endorsed District Attorney Bonnie Dumanis as his choice of successor on Tuesday.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Gingrich is back from vacation, Pawlenty gets praised by the Wall Street Journal, Goodman keeps Las Vegas all in the family, and Ken Blackwell goes old school. Here's today's rundown:

9) Call me old-fashioned, but... Former GOP Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell tells the Columbus Dispatch that when he makes his announcement on the Senate race -- expected sometime around July 4 -- it won't be via Twitter. "I'm going to do it the old-fashioned way," he said, adding that he'll likely hold a press conference if he decides to run (or not).

8) Politico reports that Republicans are trying to recruit wealthy Pittsburgh-area businessman Keith Loiselle to challenge Sen. Bob Casey, D-Pa.

7) Former Rep. Heather Wilson, R-N.M., announced Tuesday that Bryce Dustman. Wilson's chief of staff from June 2001 until January 2009, will be her campaign manager.

6) What Happens in Vegas stays in Vegas -- in politics too: A Goodman will continue as mayor of Sin City. Carolyn Goodman, wife of current Mayor Oscar Goodman, won her race easily Tuesday, defeating Clark County Commissioner Chris Giunchigliani 60 percent to 40 percent.

Meanwhile, city councilman Michael Hancock was elected mayor of Denver Tuesday.

Jon Stewart accidentally cuts his hand during a spoof of Rep. Anthony Weiner's, D-N.Y., press conference, "I'm probably going to need to go to the hospital."

David Letterman wants to get to know presidential contender Tim Pawlenty.

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 1:50 to see Stewart's comedy battle wound.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump!

A new Quinnipiac University poll out early Wednesday confirms that former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is both the frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination next year and his party's most viable candidate in the general election.

Fully one quarter of registered Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say they would vote for Romney in the primary. The only other candidate to garner double-digit support is former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, with 15 percent. Businessman Herman Cain is third (9 percent), with former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (8 percent) and Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, (9 percent), close behind.

Romney runs closer than any other Republican matched against President Obama, trailing among registered voters, 47 percent to 41 percent. In an ABC News/Washington Post poll released Tuesday, Romney actually had a slight, three-point lead over Obama among registered voters.

Obama posts double-digit leads against Palin (53 percent to 36 percent), former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman (48 percent to 34 percent) and former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty (48 percent to 36 percent).

Voters, however, are mixed on whether Obama deserves to be re-elected, with 46 percent saying he does deserve re-election and 48 percent saying he does not. That is down slightly from early May, when a narrow plurality of voters said he did deserve re-election in the wake of the death of Osama bin Laden.

A majority of New York City voters thinks embattled Rep. Anthony Weiner, D-N.Y. should not resign from Congress, according to a new NY1-Marist poll taken the same day Weiner admitted sending lewd messages and photographs to numerous women before and during his marriage.

Just 30 percent of Big Apple voters think Weiner should resign, while 51 percent believe he should not. Weiner's hope to occupy Gracie Mansion after the 2013 citywide election have taken a big hit, however: A 56-percent majority do not want him to run for mayor in 2013, while only a quarter of voters want to see him make a bid.

Notably, the poll was conducted "just hours" after Weiner admitted sending the salacious material to six different women, so many respondents to the poll may not have heard the latest developments. The poll was also conducted citywide, not just in the 9th Congressional District, which Weiner has represented since 1999.

The poll was conducted Monday evening among 379 New York City registered voters. The margin of error is +/- 5.0 percent.

Even the savviest of political observers would have been confused by automated pollster Public Policy Polling's South Carolina Republican presidential survey released Tuesday afternoon. The poll tested -- among Republican candidates Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman -- a mystery woman: Maggie Patton.

Patton, it turns out, is the cousin of Public Policy Polling's director, Tom Jensen. Jensen said he included Patton in the survey to see how a "random person" would fare -- one week after the Democratic-leaning pollster received a fair amount of attention for showing Huntsman only receiving the support of one respondent in a poll of 481 usual Iowa Republican caucusgoers.

"I was interested after Huntsman only had 1 person pick him in Iowa last week to see if some random person would get as much or more support than him in South Carolina," Jensen told Hotline On Call in an e-mail.

Not one of the 1,000 poll respondents selected Patton. But Jensen's firm also asked whether respondents have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Patton, despite the fact that she is not a public figure.

Washington state Attorney General Rob McKenna (R) will announce his candidacy for governor on Wednesday, a Republican source confirms. McKenna, who has long been expected to run, is considered the strongest candidate Republicans have for the gubernatorial race.

Democratic Gov. Chris Gregoire is widely expected to announce she won't run for a third term -- and after she does, Rep. Jay Inslee, D-Wash., is expected to enter the race.

This scenario is so strongly anticipated that Washington Democratic state Rep. Laura Ruderman has already expressed interest in running for Inslee's seat -- and filed papers with the Federal Election Commission -- provided he doesn't run again.

McKenna isn't guaranteed to clear the Republican primary field -- Rep. Dave Reichert, R-Wash., has said that he's still considering the gubernatorial race in 2012, though Republican operatives expect him to pass, thinking he has more interest in the Senate race.

Jon Huntsman's decision to forgo Iowa's first-in-the-nation caucus is drawing flak from top Iowa Republicans.

The former ambassador to China and former governor of Utah is citing his opposition to ethanol subsidies as the reason for not competing in Iowa. Criticism from Iowans is predictable, as they seek to protect their prominent status in the nominating process.

A spokesman for Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad, a Republican, noted that he supports phasing out the subsidies and released this statement Tuesday: "Gov. Branstad believes Gov. Huntsman should campaign in Iowa ... Gov. Branstad believes it is a mistake to miss out on the opportunity to compete in such an important state in the nominating process and does not believe Gov. Huntsman will benefit as a result of his refusal to participate in the caucuses here.''

That was a mild rebuke compared to the sharp statement Monday from Iowa Secretary of State Matt Schultz, who said Huntsman's reason for skipping the caucus "seems to have as much credibility as 'the dog ate my homework.'"

Updated at 6:30 p.m.

Rep. Dan Boren, D-Okla., announced he will not seek reelection next year, according to Democratic sources familiar with his decision, a major blow for Democrats defending his deeply conservative district.

"I have made the decision not to seek re-election next year for another term in Congress," Boren said in a statement. "This is not an easy decision for me. It was based on the demands of constant campaigning, and most importantly spending too much time away from my family which includes two very young children."

Boren is the first House member to retire without seeking higher office. The congressman's profile isn't typical of most retiring members --he's in his fourth term and is only 37 years old.

(RELATED: Who is Dan Boren? Read his Almanac profile)

Boren represents one of the most conservative districts in the country and was Oklahoma's only Democrat in the Congressional delegation. His district voted 66 percent for John McCain in 2008, and in 2004 gave George W. Bush 59 percent. Despite those totals, he never faced tough elections, winning with 70 percent in 2008 and last year, despite a GOP headwind, staved off his Republican challenger by 13 points.

Last week, the Salt Lake Tribune reported that Rep. Jason Chaffetz, R-Utah, has told several Utah political insiders that he plans to challenge Sen. Orrin Hatch, R-Utah.

Hatch, who has been the target of conservative criticism in Utah, has worked to try to make amends with Tea Party groups and conservatives in the state with 2012 on the horizon, actively reaching out and even hiring Tea Party organizers as staffers.

With the threat of a Chaffetz candidacy on the horizon, has Hatch's preemptive outreach worked?

"I think anyone who has looked at this situation rationally, reasonably, is going to say, you know, Sen. Hatch has done a lot to calm people down. I don't know how that translates across to votes," said Utah Tea Party organizer David Kirkham, an influential conservative voice in the state.

Former House Speaker Tip O'Neill famously proclaimed all politics is local. For Wisconsin Democrats, however, local politics is decidedly national.

The Wisconsin Democratic party plans to make Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis., and his budget plan that revamps Medicare an issue in upcoming state legislative elections, prompted by recalls of sitting state senators.

"This is about the Republican agenda of completely dismantling Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security, combined with Scott Walker's agenda," said Wisconsin Democratic Party Chairman Mike Tate in an interview with Hotline On Call Monday afternoon.

The recall elections were originally triggered by the battle over public employees' collective bargaining rights. Republicans, led by Gov. Scott Walker, pushed to curtail collective bargaining for public employees.

Tate said he's optimistic that the party can pick up the three seats necessary to win back control of the state Senate, and is also bullish about efforts to recall Walker in 2012. But there's also a risk of overreach: Only five Wisconsin legislators have ever been recalled before, and usually for personal misconduct, not policy differences.

Recalling a governor - in any state - over political disagreements is also very rare, and Tate acknowledged that if Walker survives a recall attempt, he would be in strong position to win re-election in 2014. And if they hang onto control of the state Senate, Republicans could also claim vindication for Ryan, if he was made part of the state party's campaign.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Las Vegas chooses a new mayor, Pawlenty gives a major economic address, and Obama loses a key economic adviser. And we've got some classic headlines from Weinergate (below). Here's today's rundown:

11) Think you've seen the last of 2010 South Carolina Senate candidate Alvin Greene? Not quite. A prosecutor said Monday the Greene can enter a pretrial intervention program that will drop a misdemeanor obscenity charge against him if he does community service and completes counseling.

Greene is apparently still mulling a run for president. "The country can't do without me because I am the man," he said. "I was born to be president and I will be 35 right before the election."

10) Students For Daniels? Now it's Students for Jon Huntsman, as the founders of a group that tried to draft Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels into the White House race are now backing the former Ambassador to China, Roll Call reports.

9)The state of Alaska on Monday announced that it will release over 24,000 pages of former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin's emails Friday morning in Juneau.

8) The chairman of President Obama's Council of Economic Advisors, Austan Goolsbee, is stepping down.

For Jon Stewart, the most upsetting part of the Rep. Anthony Weiner, D-N.Y., scandal is finding out, "...that he's ripped. I can't believe this guy and I are the same (bleep) age."

Stephen Colbert, on Wikipedia locking the page for Paul Revere after it was edited by supporters of Sarah Palin: "I want all of you, to go to the Wikipedia page for bells and make sure it reads 'Used by Paul Revere to warn the British...'."

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 0:50 when Palin explains her comments about Paul Revere.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump!

Any political benefit President Obama received from the death of Osama bin Laden is gone, according to a new ABC News/Washington Post poll that shows Obama facing a tough re-election battle against former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

A slight plurality of Americans now disapproves of Obama, a significant drop since a one-day Pew Research Center/Washington Post poll conducted the day after the bin Laden killing showed Obama's approval at a robust 56 percent. Today, just 47 percent of Americans approve of Obama, while 49 percent disapprove. A majority of independents, 53 percent, disapproves of his job performance.

That drop comes as the percentage of Americans who disapprove of how Obama is handling the economy has a hit a new high, 59 percent. More Americans now trust congressional Republicans (45 percent) to handle the economy than trust Obama (42 percent). The poll was conducted over a four-day period from last Thursday to Sunday; of the four nights of interviews, three took place after the disappointing May jobs report was released by the Department of Labor last Friday.

Romney's lead over Obama among registered voters is a narrow, 49 percent to 46 percent advantage. Among all adults, the two are tied at 47 percent.

But Romney's slight edge comes from some unlikely places. According to the poll, Romney runs even among women, a group Obama carried by 13 points against Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., in 2008. Romney has an 18-point lead among white women; McCain carried that group by only 7 points.

Republican strategist Ed Rollins will manage Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann's presidential campaign if she jumps in the race, a well-placed source has confirmed to Hotline On Call.

The move gives Bachmann a campaign veteran with experience working with dark-horse candidates. In 2008, Rollins helped former Gov. Mike Huckabee to an unexpected victory in Iowa. Bachmann is expected to announce her bid in Iowa later this month and is expected to invest most of her resources in the state.

Rollins also managed Ross Perot's independent campaign for president in 1992, and worked for Ronald Reagan's presidential campaign earlier in his career.

After Republicans spent last cycle saturating the airwaves tying to Democrats to then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Democrat Janice Hahn mimicked that tack in her first television ad in California's 36th District special election - using former vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin to paint Republican Craig Huey as too extreme.

"Sarah Palin and Craig Huey -- Which would ban a woman's right to choose in every case? Both Palin and Huey," the ad says, as photos of both flash on screen.

"Which supports a radical plan to end Medicare but wants to give tax breaks to the wealthy? Both Palin and Huey again. Which one called Planned Parenthood a murder mill? Only Craig Huey. We don't need Craig Huey's extremist right wing agenda."

While the Los Angeles city councilwoman has the advantage in the Democratic-leaning district to succeed former Rep. Jane Harman, it's clear she isn't taking anything for granted after Huey's surprise advancement into the July 12 runoff, and notably opted to go negative in her very first ad.

Neither Hahn nor Democratic Secretary of State Debra Bowen, who was expected to cruise into the runoff along with Hahn in last month's all-party "jungle primary," aired any television ads - presumably, stockpiling resources ahead of an anticipated face-off. But Huey, a wealthy businessman who largely self-funded his bid, began airing radio and TV ads focusing on cutting the national debt in the days before the May 17 vote. Huey edged out Bowen by just over 700 votes.

Here's Hahn's first ad, which starts Tuesday on cable in the district:

Here's something you don't see every day: a prospective Senate candidate endorsing a candidate in a different state's Senate race.

Former Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell, who is considering a Senate run, endorsed former Florida House Majority Leader Adam Hasner 's Senate candidacy in Florida.

"If conservatism is to grow and thrive as a movement in America, conservatives must be willing to step up and support young, energetic and fearless leaders like Adam Hasner," Blackwell said in a statement Monday.

Blackwell serves as a co-chair of the group "Pass the Balanced Budget Amendment," and Hasner serves on the national advisory committee for the organization.