Poll: Weiner's Constituents Don't Think He Should Resign
A majority of voters in embattled Rep. Anthony Weiner's, D-N.Y., congressional district does not think Weiner should resign, according to a new NY1-Marist poll released late Thursday.
According to the one-day poll, conducted Wednesday, just 33 percent of voters in New York's Ninth Congressional District think Weiner should resign from the House, while 56 percent do not think he should resign.
Men have rendered a faster verdict on Weiner, with 35 percent saying he should resign, and 60 percent saying he should not. A higher percentage of women -- 17 percent -- are undecided, with 31 percent saying Weiner should resign, and 52 percent saying he should not.
Voters under age 45 are less likely to say he should resign (22 percent) than voters over 45 (36 percent), but majorities of both age groups say he should not resign.
Voters are more split on whether Weiner can still be effective if he does not resign: 48 percent of voters say he will still be effective in carrying out his congressional responsibilities, while 43 percent say he will be either "not very effective" or "not effective at all."
Weiner has a surprisingly mixed image in his district. Forty-four percent of voters rate his job performance as "excellent" or "good," with only 38 percent saying that Weiner is a "fair" or "poor" member of Congress. He scores slightly lower on personal favorability, with 38 percent of voters having a favorable opinion of Weiner, and 42 percent have an unfavorable opinion.
The poll may further galvanize Weiner against calls for his resignation. CNN reported Thursday that Weiner, in a conversation with an anonymous fellow New York Democrat, was citing polling data saying he should not resign.
Weiner was likely referencing another NY1-Marist poll conducted Monday that showed a majority of voters citywide did not think Weiner should resign. But that poll was conducted just hours after Weiner's tearful press conference, and many respondents may not have been aware of the latest developments.
Since this new poll in his congressional district was conducted Wednesday, it is unlikely that voters in his district are unfamiliar with Weiner's foibles. But one note of caution: The poll was conducted the same evening that various news sources reported that Weiner's wife, State Department aide Huma Abedin, was pregnant.
Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, told Hotline On Call that phone calls began around 6 p.m., which would have been roughly an hour after the news of Abedin's reported pregnancy began to break.
Miringoff doubts that the pregnancy news would have a big effect on public opinion within his district, however.
"I'm not sure it's very event-centered right now," he said.
Looking ahead to 2012, 30 percent of voters say they definitely plan to vote for Weiner in the next election, while 31 percent say they definitely plan to vote against him; 38 percent of voters are undecided. Voters may not have that choice even if Weiner stays in office, however: The Empire State must eliminate two congressional districts as a result of reapportionment, and Weiner's district has been named as a prime target to be swallowed up, particularly after recent events.
The NY1-Marist poll surveyed 411 registered voters, for a margin of error of +/- 4.8 percent.
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