What We Learned: Minnesota Nice No More?
What we at The Hotline learned this week:
-- Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty had a very bad week. He started strong, blasting "ObamneyCare" on Fox News Sunday, then backed off the next day at the GOP debate. Then he bizarrely returned to the attack by Thursday. Which is it, TPaw? Are you Minnesota Nice or not? Circling back suggests his donors want to see an attack dog, not a friendly guy.
-- We hope everyone enjoyed the collegial nature of Monday's Republican presidential debate, because the gloves are beginning to come off - and quickly. With Pawlenty finally going on the attack against former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, it's now just a matter of time before their fellow Republicans are engaging in direct assaults on their rivals' records. In many ways the GOP field has for months been taking its cues from Pawlenty, who has been the most vocal proponent of observing Reagan's 11th commandment. And just as the other candidates followed Pawlenty's pacifistic lead during the New Hampshire debate, look for them to follow him into internecine warfare now that the first serious shots have been fired.
-- Attention Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn.: Another reason it can be risky for House members to run for president is that their constituents can get cranky at having to share. Rep. Dennis Kucinich's, R-Ohio, re-election percentages fell 14 points from 2002 to 2004 and by 9 points from 2006 to 2008 after his failed presidential bids. And Bob Dornan, R-Calif., lost re-election in 1996 after his own quixotic quest for the presidency. Perhaps this is why Reps. Duncan Hunter, R-Calif., Tom Tancredo, R-Colo., John Kasich, R-Ohio, and Dick Gephardt, R-Mo., (the second time) never ran for the House again after announcing for president.
True, Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, escaped any Democratic opposition in 2008, but he hadn't actually lost the GOP nomination by the time Texas' early filing deadline had rolled around that year. Bachmann won't have that luxury in 2012, nor will she have a district identical to the one she already represents.
-- Former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman is pursuing a high-risk, high-reward strategy by launching his campaign in New Jersey, a liberal state that plays an inconsequential role in the Republican nominating process. There could be a method to his madness, however: On the one hand, early state voters love to be catered to, and Huntsman could be missing a golden opportunity to earn goodwill in Florida or New Hampshire. On the other hand, Huntsman is running as a non-conventional candidate who's willing to ignore GOP orthodoxy in hopes of appealing to a broader swath of the electorate, including conservative Democrats in places like the northeast. It's no coincidence, then, that Huntsman will kick off his campaign at Liberty Park - the same location Ronald Reagan used in 1980.
-- The FEC can ask all it wants for American Crossroads' donor lists. It's not going to get them. Any action the commission takes must have the support of at least one Republican commissioner, and those commissioners are indicating they won't even support newly proposed disclosure rules. Any action against an outside group is almost certainly off the table.
-- Former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson (R) called for the repeal of Pres. Obama's health care reform law this week in an attempt to ward off suggestions that he supported the legislation. The orchestrated response -- Thompson invited a reporter to a join a normally closed-door meeting of GOP donors -- shows that Thompson isn't cooling on the idea of a Senate run, as some observers recently had suggested. But it remains to be seen whether Thompson's conservative critics will buy his suddenly strong rhetoric.
-- If there was the slightest doubt that the Utah Senate race would be a heated, contentious affair, this week should have erased it: FreedomWorks PAC announced they would target Sen. Orrin Hatch, R-Utah, and later that day a FreedomWorks foundation co-chair announced a Hatch endorsement. And though Rep. Jason Chaffetz, R-Utah, isn't officially a candidate yet, he and Hatch's campaign have already begun trading barbs: most recently, Chaffetz told the Salt Lake Tribune that Hatch is trying to scare away potential donors to his campaign.
-- Former Missouri Treasurer Sarah Steelman this week became the latest GOP Senate candidate to struggle with an answer to how she would have voted on the Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis., budget. She, like Florida state Senate President Mike Haridopolos, ran into problems when asked directly about it while doing a radio interview. Note to candidates: figure out a straight answer to the Ryan plan question before going on the radio.
-- If it wasn't for one man, Rep. Anthony Weiner, D-N.Y., might still be a Congressman today. Controversial conservative blogger Andrew Breitbart, who first publicized the lewd photo that Weiner accidentally sent on his Twitter feed, achieved a measure of redemption from the episode, after having been marginalized in the mainstream media for releasing videos maligning liberal figures and organizations that were misleadingly edited. After the Congressman formally resigned on Thursday, Breitbart is watching his credibility rise thanks to the once popular Weiner.
-- Personal financial disclosures show that the new freshman class in Congress is considerably more well off than their constituents even though many of them were backed by the economic frustration of the Tea Party. Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., relied heavily on the Tea Party and is one of the wealthiest freshmen. Rep. Vicky Hartzler, R-Mo., is worth between $4 and $15 million. Of course, not all freshmen came in wealthy. Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., and Sen. Mike Lee, R-Utah, come in as the least wealthy of the Senate class but two of the biggest Tea Party stars.
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