July 2011

What we at The Hotline learned this week:

-- Let no one dispute that the Club for Growth is a big player. Of the two dozen Republicans who handed John Boehner the biggest defeat of his young speakership, nearly half of them were endorsed in the last several election cycles. The Club endorsed 29 Senate and House candidates last election cycle, and 20 of them were elected. All told, it spent $8.5 million in campaigns last cycle, with another $5.97 million bundled to its favored candidates -- record highs for the group in any election year. Keep an eye on how they react to an eventual deal next week if it doesn't look as good as the revised bill that passed Friday.

-- To paraphrase Ben Franklin, everything between New York City and Washington is a valley of humility between two mountains of conceit. But this week, we learned just how little anyone on those two mountains understand each other. The debt ceiling deal still depends on a lot of things going right, and a ton of bipartisan agreement where there's been none lately. Still, we avoided any kind of massive stock sell off because Wall Street simply didn't believe a deal wouldn't happen. Wall Street doesn't get how D.C. works -- or doesn't work -- these days.

-- The 2011 gubernatorial races are a classic half-full/half-empty mixed-bag for both parties. On one hand, Republicans can crow that Democrats are barely contesting Louisiana and Mississippi, whereas the GOP is fielding credible (if underdog) challengers in Kentucky and West Virginia. On the other hand, all four of these states are strongly Republican at the presidential level, so Democrats can reasonably claim it's a good year if they simply maintain the two seats they currently hold.

-- The buzz in Massachusetts this week has revolved around Consumer Financial Protection Bureau special adviser Elizabeth Warren, who is returning to Harvard next week where speculation about her potential Senate candidacy will ramp up even more. Meanwhile, Bay State Democrats have been attacking Sen. Scott Brown, R-Mass., on both social and economic issues. They criticized Brown for not appearing in the "It Gets Better," video aimed at LGBT youth; and Democrats have also hit him for not coming out with a position on the debt ceiling deals.

-- In the wake of Florida Senate President Mike Haridopolos' exit from the Sunshine State's Senate race, it's looks increasingly like the Republican field is not completely set. Environmental consultant Nick Loeb indicated he's taking a closer look at the race, and former state House Speaker Allen Bense didn't rule out a run either. Speculation is also mounting that Rep. Vern Buchanan, R-Fla., will jump in. Meanwhile, Haridopolos made it clear he's unhappy with the field -- and with former state House Majority Leader Adam Hasner in particular -- saying he hoped former Gov. Jeb Bush or Reps. Connie Mack, R-Fla., Allen West, R-Fla., or Jeff Miller, R-Fla., would get in.

-- While former Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory hasn't yet declared himself a candidate for governor of North Carolina, this week felt like the a full-fledged faceoff between the Republican and Democratic Gov. Bev Perdue. McCrory hit Perdue over high unemployment and for her veto of a voter ID bill, and the two both reported raising over a million dollars ($1.3 million for Perdue and just over $1 million for McCrory).

Just days after the fiscally conservative Club for Growth released an internal poll showing Sen. Richard Lugar, R-Ind., in a neck-and-neck race against his GOP opponent, state Treasurer Richard Mourdock, Lugar is pushing back with a poll of his own. It show the senator himself leading Mourdock by 14 points. While the poll is more encouraging for Lugar than the findings of the Club's survey, the numbers are still relatively unimpressive for the longtime Republican incumbent.

Lugar leads Mourdock 45 percent to 31 percent according to the senator's own poll of likely GOP primary voters, with 23 percent undecided. The Club's poll, released Tuesday, found 34 percent of likely GOP primary voters would vote for Mourdock, 32 percent would vote for Lugar, while 34 percent are undecided.

The 45 percent figure isn't exactly ideal for an incumbent. But the bigger question is whether both of the polls offer enough encouraging signs for Mourdock to spur donors and conservative groups to line up behind the conservative challenger.

During the first two quarters of the year, Mourdock's fundraising has been lackluster, and he has not drawn the wholehearted support from conservative groups that conservative challengers in other races have enjoyed. For example, while the Club for Growth hasn't been shy about going after Lugar, it hasn't endorsed Mourdock.

The Lugar campaign's poll of 600 likely Republican primary voters was conducted by American Viewpoint from July 27-28, and carries a margin of error of +/- 4.0 percent at the 95 percent confidence level.

Updated July 30 at 1:30 pm

The debt ceiling debate reaches its peak as Congress enters the last weekend before the August 2nd deadline. The weekend shows will focus on the topic as the specter of default and a loss of credit rating loom.

On Saturday, Fox News will air a live special edition of the "The Cost of Freedom" called "Budget Brawl: Taking It to the Limit." Fox News' Neil Cavuto will bring the latest on the debt ceiling and he'll interview political and business leaders including former Sen. Alan Simpson, R-Wyo., Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, Sen. Mike Lee, R-Utah, and several others.

Get the complete listings after the jump.

On the same day the latest Gallup tracking poll showed President Obama's job-approval rating falling to a new low of 40 percent, a conservative group moved to keep him on the ropes, announcing it has purchased $1 million worth of television ads blasting the president's handling of the debt ceiling debate.

"In 2006, Senator Barack Obama, said, quote, 'raising America's debt limit is a sign of leadership failure,'" says the ad commissioned by Americans for Prosperity, before cutting to a clip of Obama as president saying "we have to extend this debt ceiling through the next election."

The ad follows several spots from a range of outside groups that have highlighted the debt ceiling debate in attacks against candidates for federal office, and in some cases, the president himself.

Liberal group Americans United For Change teamed up with AFSCME, SEIU, and NEA to launch what a six-figure television ad campaign today warning seven House Republicans and Sen. Dean Heller, R-Nev., that if Congress does not act to raise the debt ceiling by the August 2 deadline, Social Security checks and veterans benefits could be at risk. Meanwhile, the conservative Crossroads GPS has used the debate to attack Obama and vulnerable Democratic senators in their own television ads.

While Obama received low marks for his handling of the debt negotiations in the Gallup survey, House Speaker John Boehner received even lower marks -- a 31 percent approval rating -- on the same issue.

Check out the AFP ad after the jump.

From National Journal:
Happy Birthday! How Presidents Celebrate

Is the Debt Crisis Another Hit for Housing?

No Way Out? Five Keys to Debt Deal

In Debt-Ceiling Mess, There Are No Winners

AT&T/T-Mobile Deal Faces Tough Environment

Following the decision by House Republicans leaders late Thursday to postpone a vote on House Speaker John Boehner's debt-ceiling proposal, House Republicans and Senate Democrats convened in separate meetings this morning to discuss the road ahead.

Following a meeting in House Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy's office, some House Republicans who had previously expressed skepticism about Boehner's measure expressed new optimism.

"By standing firm, we were able to get a bill that actually cuts federal spending now, caps future spending, and ensures a Balanced Budget Amendment passes Congress before the second increase is enacted," said Rep. Jeff Landry, R-La., who had previously committed to a no vote.

House Republican leaders spent hours whipping the previous version of the Boehner proposal Thursday, but still fell short of the votes necessary for passage. As things stand now, Boehner needs 216 votes to pass his bill. Without any Democratic help, he can lose 24 Republican votes if all the rest of the total 240 Republicans show up and vote his way.

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office reported Wednesday that Boehner's revised proposal to raise the debt ceiling deficit reduction plan would reduce budget deficits by about $915 billion over 10 years through FY2021.

A vote originally scheduled for Wednesday was delayed late Tuesday amid disunity within the GOP conference and a previous report from the CBO that Boehner's plan would accomplish cuts $150 billion below the $1 trillion target House Republicans want.

National Journal has compiled a list of Republican Members who have committed to voting no, and those who have declared they are undecided. We've also included noteworthy yes votes as well as the positions of notable Democrats, based on the recent House vote on the GOP's "Cut, Cap And Balance" measure.

We'll be updating this list to reflect Members' latest decisions. Updates or changes? Email ssullivan@nationaljournal.com. Unless otherwise indicated, the source of each Member's decision is National Journal reporting. Check out the full rundown after the jump.

The Susan B. Anthony List, an anti-abortion advocacy group, wants clarity from Texas Gov. Rick Perry , following comments the governor and possible presidential candidate made about deciding legality of abortion at the state level.

"You either have to believe in the 10th Amendment or you don't," Perry told reporters in Houston Wednesday, according to ABC News. "You can't believe in the 10th Amendment for a few issues and then [for] something that doesn't suit you say, 'We'd rather not have states decide that.'"

The group points out that Perry also said at a speech in Los Angeles last month that "somehow, the folks in Washington have forgotten, or chosen to ignore, the overriding responsibility of every government: to protect citizens at every stage in life, especially those who cannot protect themselves."

"Governor Perry has been a long time friend of the pro-life movement and we welcome and appreciate all the work he has done for women and unborn children as Governor," said Susan B. Anthony List President Marjorie Dannenfelser. "We agree that certainly there is a lot that can be done at the state level to reduce the number of abortion, but that does not diminish or eliminate the federal government's responsibility to protect human life in all of its stages."

The group's questioning of Perry suggests the governor's federalist streak -- which makes him popular among many conservatives -- could at times create an uncomfortable dynamic when viewed in conjunction with certain social issues.

Perry's spokesman, meanwhile, defended his boss's record on the issue of abortion.

Even as Republicans appear set later Friday to support House Speaker John Boehner's revamped debt-ceiling bill, one prominent conservative group remains opposed.

Heritage Action for America, the political arm of the Heritage Foundation, still thinks Boehner's legislation does not achieve enough spending cuts or structural changes to the country's budget despite the addition of a Balanced Budget Amendment.

"None of plans put forward hit that mark, and this one still doesn't," Tim Chapman, Heritage Action's chief operating officer, told National Journal.

Even if the inclusion of a BBA is a positive step, Chapman said it still falls well short of his group's ideal legislation. It doesn't guarantee enough deep spending cuts, do enough to oppose potential tax increases or cut into the country's entitlement system, he said.

Heritage's continued opposition stands in contrast with how other groups have reacted to the new version of Boehner's bill Friday. Club for Growth, which had helped lead the change against it earlier this week, withdrew its opposition Friday morning -- although it doesn't officially support it, either. Many Republican lawmakers who said they were a "no" vote Thursday changed their positions Friday, and even Chapman conceded passage looks likely. That's an unfortunate turn of events for a Republican Party that had originally promised to leverage major changes as part of the debt-ceiling deal, Chapman said.

"Now, all that kind of is up in the air. It's disappointing, and we're trying to squeak something through at the last minute that probably won't become law," Chapman said.

Also Friday, Tea Party Patriots announced it will continue to oppose the Boehner deal.

Former Rep. Charles Djou, R-Hawaii, is closely considering a run for his old seat in Hawaii's 1st Congressional District regardless of whether Democratic Rep. Colleen Hanabusa vacates the seat to make a Senate bid, he told Hotline On Call Friday.

"I am giving very serious thought about running again, running for the House, running for the first congressional district," Djou told Hotline On Call. "And that's whether or not Colleen Hanabusa decides to run for the Senate."

Djou, who emailed supporters Thursday to say he was "troubled by the lack of bipartisan leadership by Hawaii's representatives in the US House," is also considering making a Senate bid, if former Gov. Linda Lingle, the strongest potential Republican candidate, decides not to run. Lingle was recently in Washington and has said she will make a decision by August. Djou says based on his conversations with the former governor, she hasn't made up her mind yet.

"Part of my decision-making matrix is Governor Lingle hasn't formally decided as to what she is going to do with the U.S. Senate race, and if she should decide not to run for the United States Senate, that is something I will also -- I'm not saying I'm going to run for it -- but it is something I will give serious consideration."

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. There's deadlock in the House, as conservative Republicans refuse to budge, the NRCC up with a big ad buy in NV-02 and liberal groups begin to play House hardball. Here's today's rundown:

7) As GOP freshman in the House ponder whether or not to support House Speaker John Boehner's debt ceiling proposal, Sarah Palin offered the group a not-so-subtle reminder on her Facebook page Thursday, asking them to re-read a letter she sent them in November of 2010. The key line: "P.S. Everyone I talk to still believes in contested primaries."

6) The National Republican Congressional Committee's first television ad in Nevada's 2nd District special election -- which comes the same week that Democratic nominee Kate Marshall launched an ad that goes after her GOP opponent, Mark Amodei -- focuses squarely on the economy, and refutes Marshall's claims about her record on the issue. House Race Hotline's Jessica Taylor has the story.

5) Americans United For Change is teaming up with AFSCME, SEIU, and NEA to launch what they say is a six-figure television ad campaign today warning seven House Republicans and Sen. Dean Heller , R-Nev., that if Congress does not act on the debt ceiling by Tuesday, Social Security checks and veterans' benefits could be at risk.

"Tell Sen. Heller to stop holding the interests of ordinary Americans hostage," says the ad mentioning Heller.. The other spots target Reps. Bobby Schilling, R-Ill. Steve King, R-Iowa, Chip Cravaack, R-Minn. Denny Rehberg, R-Mont., Ann Marie Buerkle, R-N.Y., Lou Barletta, and House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, R-Va.

Jon Stewart isn't sure about Republican's choice of motivational movie, "The Town? ... The establishment Republicans are saying to the Tea Party upstarts, 'You know the violent, unstable, borderline sociopath from The Town, who's useful in a pinch, but whose suicidal single minded mania will ultimately be his downfall. That's you guys.'"

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 2:05 for Jimmy Kimmel's "This Week in Unnecessary Censorship."

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump!

The National Republican Congressional Committee's first ad in Nevada's 2nd District special election focuses on the economy, directly refuting Democrat Kate Marshall's claims she helped put the state on solid financial footing.

The ad, which begins airing Friday, comes two days after Marshall's first television ad touted her "Common Sense" approach in the treasurer's office, and claims Marshall "gambled away $50 million of your money on Wall Street," pointing to the state's investment in Lehman Brothers before it crashed, and 33 increase in office spending.

Charging that Nevada's economy became the worst in the nation under Marshall, the ad closes with a photo of President Obama with his arm around the Democratic state treasurer.

"Kate Marshall is directly responsible for losing $50 million of taxpayer money on a preventable Wall Street gamble and will only be an echo chamber for Harry Reid's job-killing agenda if elected to Congress," said NRCC spokesman Tyler Houlton.

As Hotline On Call reported earlier Thursday, the NRCC is the first outside group to wade into the television ad wars ahead of the September 13 special election between Marshall and former state GOP Chairman Mark Amodei. The roughly $250,000 ad buy on Reno television will last through August 11.

Former Rep. Anthony Weiner's departure from Congress has led to an unlikely campaign to replace him, where both candidates are fighting over their pro-Israel bona fides.

Republican Bob Turner has been questioning whether Democrat David Weprin, who is Jewish and has a long record of support for Israel, will be able to stand up to President Obama if he tries to put undue pressure on the Jewish state.

Seeking to reassure the district's sizable Jewish constituency of his deep support for Israel, Weprin trotted out an endorsement from Sen. Joe Lieberman, ID-Conn. - just days after former New York City Mayor Ed Koch crossed party lines to back Turner, saying he wanted to send a message to Obama over his Middle East policies.

UPDATE, 4:34 p.m: Boehner released a statement, saying he looks forward to continue serving with Jordan after the redistricting process is complete.

Jordan's office also released a statement this afternoon: "We would hope that standing strong in favor of lower spending and balancing the federal budget would not be a reason to eliminate the district of a sitting member of Congress," said Jordan spokeswoman Meghan Snyder.

House Speaker John Boehner knows how to play hardball.

One day after conservative House Study Committee Chairman Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, was reamed out by party leadership for working to undermine Boehner's deficit reduction bill, the Speaker's allies back home are fighting back by trying to draw him out of his seat.

The Columbus Dispatch reports that two Ohio Republicans close to the redistricting process are now seriously considering altering his district so he'd have to run in a much less-friendly seat. Boehner has had input in how the new Ohio map is being drawn, according to several Republicans familiar with the process.

With Ohio losing two House seats in reapportionment, it's likely that one Republican will be out of a seat in the game of musical chairs. But Jordan was never viewed as a leading target, with freshman Rep. Bill Johnson, R-Ohio, and Rep. Jean Schmidt, R-Ohio, looking more vulnerable.

Drawing Jordan out of a district would help shore up one of the more vulnerable freshman Republicans, Rep. Steve Stivers. Stivers, whose district neighbors Jordan's, is a favorite of the Speaker and someone who campaign officials have been focused on protecting in redistricting.

News of a GOP power play against Jordan won't be looked upon favorably by outside conservative groups - he's one of the leading advocates against increased spending in the House. The Club for Growth helped get him elected in a competitive 2006 primary.

If there was any doubt that there was no love lost between Florida state Senate President Mike Haridopolos and former state House Majority Leader Adam Hasner during the U.S. Senate race earlier this year, Haridopolos has cleared it up by indicating where his loyalties (don't) lie, now that he has dropped out of the contest.

"I can tell you one thing: I will not be supporting Adam Hasner for the Senate," Haridopolos said, according to the Orlando Sentinel. He also offered an indirect slight at the rest of the field, saying he still hopes "a principled and trusted conservative" will get in the race.

He specifically said he hoped that former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, Rep. Connie Mack, R-Fla., or Rep. Jeff Miller, R-Fla., would jump in. Mack had previously endorsed Haridopolos' bid.

Hasner and former-Sen. George LeMieux are the two Republican frontrunners in the race right now, with Hasner's camp trying to frame the race as another Rubio-Crist matchup.

Massachusetts Democrats are attempting to put Sen. Scott Brown, R-Mass., in a tough spot over not participating in a supportive video aimed at LGBT youths. Looking to soften up Brown before his reelection bid next year, local Democrats held a conference call this afternoon.

Democrats see Brown's decision not to appear in the "It Gets Better," coupled with his opposition to same-sex marriage in the nation's first state to legalize the practice, as a way to peel off independents.

The state's most prominent gay Republican defended Brown, a former state Senate colleague, pointing to Brown's vote to repeal the military's ban on openly gay service.

"On the major issue this year that came up for gays and lesbians, Scott really helped make a big difference," said Richard Tisei, the GOP's lieutenant governor nominee last year. "His support was really important."

Tisei told National Journal he had limited knowledge of the video and Brown's decision, and suggested a scheduling conflict had prevented the senator from participating.

"I don't know what his scheduling situation's like," Tisei said Thursday afternoon. "If he wasn't able to schedule something, I give him more than the benefit of the doubt."

On the conference call, state Rep. Carl Sciortino, who is openly gay, noted Brown's vote against the creation of a commission on suicide prevention and bullying of LGBT youth.

"Sen. Brown's absence in our congressional delegation's video sends a message that he supports LGBT youth getting bullied," Sciortino said.

It's not Brown's first run-in with gay teens. In 2007, after students at King Philip Regional High School had attacked Brown and his daughter Ayla on Facebook over his opposition to gay marriage, Brown went to the school and called out the students, reading some of the off-color statements they had posted.

The National Republican Congressional Committee's independent expenditure arm is going up on television more than a month before the special election in Nevada's 2nd District.

According to a Democratic operative who tracks ad buys, the NRCC has purchased $225,000 worth of TV ad time in the Reno TV market, with an ad that will begin on Friday and run through August 11.

The large buy indicates that national Republicans believe the race between former Nevada GOP Chairman Mark Amodei and state Treasurer Kate Marshall will be competitive. Marshall outraised Amodei through June and ended the first reporting period with more than double the cash on hand.

Amodei went up on television early, with a controversial first ad that showed Chinese troops marching on the Capitol after the U.S. economy had plummeted after the nation kept raising the debt ceiling. Marshall just went up with her first two ads on Wednesday - one a positive spot, and the other hitting Amodei for voting for tax increases in the state legislature.

Dwindling support from independents has cost President Obama his onetime edge over a generic Republican opponent, according to a poll by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press that found voters evenly split over his reelection.

The survey showed 41 percent favor Obama winning a second term, while 40 percent prefer a Republican getting elected in 2012. Obama held a 11-point lead in May, after the killing of Osama bin Laden.

The drop-off in Obama's rating stems from disenchantment among independent voters. Just 31 percent want him to win another term, down from 42 percent in May. For the first time, a majority of independents (54 percent) disapprove of his job performance.

In the Republican primary race, Mitt Romney still leads the pack with 21 percent of the vote, followed by Texas Gov. Rick Perry with 12 percent, Sarah Palin with 11 percent, and Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., with 9 percent. Perry and Palin have not yet announced whether they are running.

The national poll of 1,501 adults was conducted July 20-24 and carries a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points. The poll surveyed subsets of 1,205 (margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points) registered voters, and 546 Republican and Republican-leaning registered voters (margin of error of +/- 4.2 percentage points).

The same day the Club for Growth expressed support for freshman Rep. Joe Walsh, R-Ill., to run in Illinois' new 14th District, the Chicago Sun-Times reported that Walsh's ex-wife is suing him for over $100,000 in child support, a development a Club spokesman says the group was not aware of beforehand.

"We were unaware that this was an issue," Club spokesman Barney Keller told Hotline On Call Thursday.

The sequence of events represents something of an embarrassment for the influential fiscally conservative group, which has irked the Republican establishment for occasionally taking on moderate Republican members of Congress in primaries. They've also drawn fire for helping nominate very conservative Republican candidates, like Nevada Senate candidate Sharron Angle and ex-Idaho Rep. Bill Sali, who end up being unelectable in a general election.

Walsh, a freshman who enjoyed strong Tea Party support en route to a very narrow victory against now-former Rep. Melissa Bean in Illinois' 8th District in 2010, has a couple of options: run in the 8th District -- which, under a redistricting plan signed by Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn stands to become more Democratic -- or run in the 14th District, where he faces the prospect of facing fellow freshman Republican Rep. Randy Hultgren.

The Club for Growth, on Wednesday, urged him to run in the district currently held by another Republican.

"If the district lines in Illinois as passed by the Democrats end up being upheld, then Club for Growth PAC will enthusiastically support Congressman Walsh for re-election in the 14th Congressional District," Club President Chris Chocola said in a release Wednesday.

Member of Congress in both parties think that the tea party will be less of a force in the 2012 elections than it was in 2010, according to the results of this week's National Journal Congressional Insiders Poll.

Democratic and Republican Members of Congress are predictably split on the benefit of divided government according to the results of this week's National Journal Congressional Insiders Poll. By more than a four-to-one margin Republican Members believe it's a positive, while a majority of Democrats viewed the partisan division of government negatively.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Dennis Kucinich is making moves in Washington state, the Club for Growth's favorite congressman gets busted for not paying child support, and two prominent Senate prospects leading the opposition to Boehner's debt ceiling bill. Here's today's rundown:

8) Freshman Rep. Joe Walsh, R-Ill., a Tea Party favorite, owes over $100,000 in child support to his ex-wife and three children, according to documents his ex-wife filed last December, the Chicago Sun-Times reports. Walsh's attorney called the claim of a $117,437 debt "unfounded."

The timing of the news is bad luck for the Club for Growth, who on Wednesday endorsed Walsh, urging him on to run in the district currently held by Republican Rep. Randy Hultgren.

7) Sarah Palin is headed to Iowa on Sept. 3, to be the keynote speaker at the Tea Party of America's "Restoring America" event.

6) 2010 Nevada Senate nominee Sharron Angle is trying to get back in the news by taking on John McCain, R-Ariz. McCain on Wednesday accused conservatives of abandoning reason by standing in opposition the House Republican leader's plan to resolve the debt crisis, the New York Times notes. "This is the kind of crack political thinking that turned Sharron Angle and Christine O'Donnell into G.O.P. nominees," he said, echoing an argument made by the Wall Street Journal editorial page.

Angle hits back this morning in a statement: "Ironically, this man campaigned for TEA Party support in his last re-election, but now throws Christine O'Donnell and I into the harbor with Sarah Palin. As in the fable, it is the hobbits who are the heroes and save the land. This Lord of the TARP actually ought to read to the end of the story and join forces with the TEA Party, not criticize it." That's in part a response to McCain quoting a Wall Street Journal editorial that uses the term "Tea Party Hobbits." Had your fill of Lord Of The Rings this morning?

Conan O'Brien is worried about hitting the debt ceiling, "The U.S. government now has less, I think it's less then one week away from running out of money to pay it's bills ... Things are so bad folks, America may have to move in with Canada for a while."

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 1:50 when Stephen Colbert raps about sub-prime mortgages.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump!

The GOP-aligned American Action Network is helping bolster some of the most vulnerable House Republicans with an advocacy campaign defending their records on Medicare.

The campaign, which is costing the group about $1 million, attacks Democrats for trying to "balance the budget on the backs of seniors" and praises various members for fighting to preserve Medicare. The group is sending out direct mail pieces, robo-calling voters in districts, and setting up a website detailing their argument.

"The American Action Network wants to praise those principled members of Congress who are opposing this radical plan to balance the budget on the backs of America's seniors." the group's president Brian Walsh said in a statement.

The counter-attack comes as House Republicans have been hammered by Democratic outside groups for supporting a budget by Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis., that would alter the entitlement program.

The 22 Republican beneficiaries of the campaign mostly represent competitive districts, with higher-than-average numbers of seniors. They include Reps. Patrick Meehan, R-Pa., Charles Dent, R-Pa., Lou Barletta, R-Pa., Jim Gerlach, R-Pa., Tom Latham, R-Iowa, David McKinley, R-W.Va., and Frank Guinta, R-N.H.

The full list of members the group is defending is below the jump:

Democratic nominee Kate Marshall opened her television ad campaign on Wednesday in Nevada's 2nd District special election with two spots: one that touts the state treasurer as a "financial expert" who helped saved "millions of dollars" and another that casts Republican Mark Amodei as a tax-raiser.

Marshall, who was recently endorsed by EMILY's List, is taking to the airwaves for the first time in advance of the September 13 special election against Amodei, who has already gone up on television with two ads of his own, both focused on the nation's debt.

"In the Treasurer's Office we were able to save millions of dollars simply by renegotiating contracts, by cutting expenses and increase services without raising taxes," Marshall says in the positive spot, titled, "Common Sense."

"Judge Me," the ad that goes right after Amodei, says the former state legislator "sponsored the biggest tax hike in Nevada history. One billion dollars on car repairs, movie tickets, even a tax on creating jobs." The ad cuts to footage of Amodei saying, "Amodei sponsored a billion dollar tax bill. Well, yeah that's true."

"With respect to pay increases, Kate Marshall lives in a glass house," Amodei spokesman Peter DeMarco responded in a statement. "Mark Amodei never voted to give himself a pay raise. The bill she refers to explicitly stipulated that it did not go into effect until 2011, after Amodei left office due to term limits. By contrast, Kate Marshall conveniently forgot to mention that she refused to accept a voluntary 4.6% pay reduction as State Treasurer, keeping her taxpayer-funded salary at $95,000."

The campaign's opening ads hint at both the themes each side will seek to underscore, and the differences in the campaign's central debate, when compared to the special election earlier this year in New York's 26th District. There, House Budget Chairman Paul Ryan's, R-Wis., plan to revamp Medicare was a major point of contention. In Nevada, the nation's debt, taxes and austerity measures have taken center stage.

Check out both of Marshall's ads after the jump.

Earlier this week, the Club for Growth released an internal poll showing that longtime Sen. Richard Lugar, R-Ind., faces a competitive race against state Treasurer Richard Mourdock. Lugar's also already spent money on television early in the race, and the Club has warned him over the debt ceiling with an ad of their own.

Not the best couple of weeks for the six-term incumbent. But everything is relative in politics, and while Lugar hasn't enjoyed the smoothest ride in 2011, neither has Mourdock, the candidate many conservatives hope will have what it takes to defeat Lugar in the primary next year.

Mourdock was outraised by Lugar in the second quarter, following a disappointing first quarter haul for the state Treasurer. Mourdock only raised a little over $300,000 while Lugar brought in over $900,000. Lugar also has a healthy cash on hand advantage, with over $3.5 million in his account to Mourdock's $213,000. It's early in the race, but given the fanfare surrounding Mourdock's campaign earlier this year, he hasn't quite lived up to the expectations, financially.

Mourdock also hasn't attracted the trove of high-profile national endorsements that conservative challengers in other races -- for example Ted Cruz in Texas or Josh Mandel in Ohio -- have attracted. Of course, neither of those two is in a race against a longtime incumbent Republican, but both boast support from Sen. Jim DeMint's, R-S.C., influential Senate Conservatives Fund, and the Club for Growth, neither of which has committed to backing Mourdock.

The extent to which the Club has been cautious in the Indiana Senate race is also notable. The group ran an ad warning Lugar and also touted a poll showing him to be in a competitive primary race. But the group has also made a point of emphasizing that they have not endorsed anyone in the race yet.

"We continue to talk to him and watch his candidacy and his campaign," Club President Chris Chocola said of Mourdock in an interview with Hotline On Call. "There have to be things in place and they're not. One -- His fundraising needs to improve, he hasn't shown he's been able to effectively fundraise yet. He's making progress."

Updated 2:57 p.m

There's a battle brewing over endorsements in Illinois, where the two Democratic candidates running for a newly-drawn House seat are each claiming support from two prominent former members of Congress.

The campaign of Iraq war veteran Tammy Duckworth is claiming that her primary rival, former Illinois Deputy Treasurer Raja Krishnamoorthi falsely touted endorsements from former Reps. Melissa Bean and Debbie Halvorson. Her campaign released statements from both today, praising Duckworth. Both former congresswomen are staying neutral in the race.

In June, when it was rumored Duckworth was considering a run, Krishnamoorthi's campaign claimed the financial support of Bean, and several local papers reported that the former congresswoman endorsed her.

Krishnamoorthi spokesman Mike Murray said that they never claimed Bean formally endorsed their campaign, but underscored that she had been supportive of his bid.

"While it is true that Bean cannot formally endorse a candidate due to her position in the private sector, the facts are clear," said Murray. "It was Bean who initially recruited Raja to run for the new 8th district seat, Bean has supported Raja's candidacy financially with $1,000 cash donation and a $2,000 in-kind contribution of office equipment left over from her previous campaign."

7/28 Clarification: McCrory brought in just over $1 million during the first half of the year.

North Carolina Gov. Bev Perdue reported raising $1.3 million during the first half of the year, outraising her expected rival, former Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory, who brought in just over $1 million.

McCrory finished the period with about $940,000 in the bank, he announced Wednesday, while Perdue had about $1.3 million. However, her campaign also owes $776,500 to Perdue and her husband.

"Over the last several months I have spoken throughout North Carolina about the kind of leadership needed to get our state back on track -- about the policies we must put in place to help people get back to work and grow our state's economy," McCrory said in a statement Wednesday. "And I have said repeatedly that I will gauge the level of support and confidence in a potential McCrory campaign for Governor."

Perdue defeated McCrory, who is widely expected to run in 2012, by about three percent of the vote in 2008. Republicans have their sights set on North Carolina as a top pickup opportunity in 2012, and early polling indicates Perdue is vulnerable.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. House Republicans divided on the debt ceiling, EMILY's List getting involved in the Connecticut Senate race, Pawlenty loses a backer to Romney in New Hampshire, and another House special election is coming up. Here's today's rundown:

8) Something old, something Liu: Law professor Goodwin Liu is back in the news. Liu, whose federal appeals court appointment was blocked by Republicans became California Gov. Jerry Brown's first nominee to the state Supreme Court. The San Francisco Chronicle has the details.

7) Elizabeth Warren is leaving the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau on August 1 to return to Harvard Law School, CNN reports. The departure would allow Warren to pursue a Senate campaign against Sen. Scott Brown, R-Mass, though she's made no decision on that front.

6) Following the decision by embattled Rep. David Wu, D-Ore., to announce that he will resign from Congress, Oregon Gov. John Kitzhaber issued a statement Tuesday indicating that he will set the special election for 80 days after Wu's official resignation date, triggering both a primary and a general election. Wu, however, said he won't resign until the debt limit vote occurs. House Race Hotline Editor Jessica Taylor has a full rundown of possible successors.

5) Tim Pawlenty isn't gaining much traction in New Hampshire, and now he's losing a supporter. The New Hampshire Union-Leader reports state Rep. Shaun Doherty, frustrated with the lack of New Hampshire activity by his campaign, is jumping ship from the former Minnesota's governor's steering committee and is backing Mitt Romney. Pawlenty's main focus in the lead up to next month's Ames Straw poll has been and continues to be on Iowa.

Jon Stewart isn't reassured by President Obama's speech on the debt ceiling, "You're asking us to call Congress? ... I actually feel bad for the president now. He interrupted The Bachelorette to be like, 'Could you call your Congressman. I can't talk to these people.'"

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 1:50 when Stephen Colbert breaks up with Republican presidential candidate Herman Cain.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump!

Sen. Jim DeMint, R-S.C., the deficit hawk who challenged his own party establishment and helped elect five like-minded colleagues to the Senate in 2010, decided not to make the presidential race himself. But that doesn't mean he's staying out of it.

DeMint said in an interview Monday that he is trying to get conservatives in states that will hold early presidential contests - his home state, Iowa, New Hampshire "and maybe Florida" - behind one presidential candidate. He said he's urging them to "hold their endorsements" so they can first screen the candidates and try to get behind the same one.

"What we're doing is encouraging people to wait. Not jump in early based on friendships or whatever," said DeMint. "Just allow this to play out a little bit."

DeMint is planning to host a presidential forum, tentatively scheduled for Labor Day in Columbia, S.C. It's part of a screening process that he hopes will give conservatives a chance to scrutinize candidates positions and encourage them to coalesce around one. "We're trying to create a unified front," he said.

Another advantage of waiting, DeMint argued. "Not all of the candidates may be in the race yet. We may have one or two candidates get in and change the mix a bit."

Is he talking about Rick Perry and Sarah Palin? DeMint sounded more positive about the former. "Yeah he might get in," he said of the Texas governor. As for his party's 2008 vice presidential nominee: "I have no idea about what Sarah is going to do."

As a top GOP elected official in South Carolina, the state that will hold the third presidential elimination of the 2012 campaign season, DeMint is fielding lots of calls from candidates who'd like his endorsement. "I've talked to most of them," he said.

House Speaker John Boehner's proposal to raise the debt ceiling by $1 trillion in exchange for $1.2 trillion in cuts has achieved what Democrats have spent months trying to do: It has divided Republican interest groups that have so far stood united.

In separate releases on Tuesday, both the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the conservative Club for Growth said they would use members of Congress's votes on Boehner's proposal in their endorsement decisions next year -- in Washington parlance, they will "score" the votes. But the Chamber is for the bill, while the Club is opposed.

"This legislation is critical. Default on debt obligations is not an acceptable option. The time for Congress to act is now," wrote Bruce Josten, the Chamber's top lobbyist on Capitol Hill, in a letter to members of Congress. "Political brinksmanship is no longer an acceptable strategy for either the White House or congressional leaders."

The Club for Growth, which has funded challengers to Republican incumbents who haven't toed the party line, came out on the other side.

"The Boehner plan does not achieve the goals of Cut, Cap, and Balance and doesn't fix our fiscal mess. We are urging Club Members to call their members of Congress and ask them to oppose it," said former Rep. Chris Chocola, the Club's president.

Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., continues to highlight her legal experience without mentioning that the one and only employer of her services was the Internal Revenue Service.

In a press release from her congressional office late Monday, Bachmann, also a presidential candidate, praised the IRS decision to do away with a two-year limit on claims from spouses of accused tax delinquents. The press release describes Bachmann only as a "former federal tax litigation attorney,'' making her sound more like a lawyer who helped clients lower their tax bills than a U.S. Department of Treasury employee who sued tax scofflaws on behalf of the IRS.

The press released quotes Bachmann as saying: "I support the IRS's decision to remove the two-year timeline on most relief requests. I hope this change proves to be sufficient to lift the burden off men and women who are proved innocent from their spouse's tax liability."

Bachmann worked for the federal government from 1988 to 1993. But you won't find that information in the biographies on her congressional and campaign web sites, which highlight her calls for smaller government and lower taxes as a leader in the Tea Party movement.

Bachmann's campaign spokeswoman has said she is not trying to hide her work for the IRS and that it taught her the impact of taxes on families. Her congressional office did not immediately respond to a request for comment Tuesday about the press release.

Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., has endorsed Republican Ted Cruz in the Texas Senate race, becoming the latest Senate conservative to back the former state solicitor general's campaign.

"I've watched Ted Cruz take a stand against the tax and spend crowd, and I'm convinced that he is the Constitutional conservative candidate who can help solve our problems in Washington," Paul said in a statement released Tuesday morning.

Cruz has lined up support from an impressive slate of national conservatives, ranging from Sen. Mike Lee, R-Utah, to FreedomWorks and the Club for Growth, to Sen. Jim DeMint, R-S.C., whose influential Senate Conservatives Fund threw its weight behind Cruz on the eve of Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst's Senate campaign launch last week. As DeMint did then, Paul took a veiled swipe at Dewhurst Tuesday.

"Right now, an establishment Republican with enormous personal wealth is running for Senate against Ted. I'm afraid he'd join the go-along, get-along Senate club, and we don't need more of that in Washington," Paul said.

Dewhurst's name identification and money make him the early favorite in the GOP race that a candidate must win with a majority to avoid a runoff. Cruz and former Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert, whose personal wealth makes him a threat, are the strongest Dewhurst opponents.

While Cruz has racked up support from well-known Washington conservative figures and groups, his support among prominent Texas Republicans has not been as notable. Cruz is backed by George P. Bush and three former state Republican party chairs are also behind him, but in a recent press release touting his endorsements, Cruz's campaign released a list of backers that was evenly divided between out-of-state and in-state figures and groups.

Updated at 5:35 p.m.

Scandal-plagued Rep. David Wu, D-Ore., announced Tuesday he is resigning in the wake of a report that he had an unwanted sexual encounter with a teenage girl.

"It has been the greatest privilege of my life to be a United States Congressman. Rare is the nation in which an immigrant child can become a national political figure. I thank God and my parents for the privilege of being an American," Wu said in a statement.

(PROFILE: Rep. David Wu)

"Now, however, the time has come to hand on the privilege of high office. I cannot care for my family the way I wish while serving in Congress and fighting these very serious allegations.

But Wu added he will remain in office through the ongoing debt limit negotiations.

(PICTURES: Political Sex Scandals)

"The wellbeing of my children must come before anything else. With great sadness, I therefore intend to resign effective upon the resolution of the debt-ceiling crisis," said Wu. "This is the right decision for my family, the institution of the House, and my colleagues. It is also the only correct decision to avoid any distraction from the important work at hand in Washington.

Wu's announcement comes after he spent the weekend insisting he would not step down but conceding he wouldn't run for reelection in 2012. However, Democratic leaders had stepped up pressure on the congressman to resign, hoping to avoid another embarrassing sex scandal.

The Portland Oregonian notes that Wu's resignation announcement came shortly after the state's two Democratic senators, Ron Wyden and Jeff Merkley, released a joint statement calling on Wu to step down.

"This is a critical time for our state and our nation and Oregonians need every member of their Congressional delegation to be effective," the two said. "While no one takes pleasure in asking a colleague to resign, we believe he can no longer be an effective representative for our shared constituents and should, in the best interest of Oregon, step down."

Wu, first elected in 1998, was the first Chinese-American to serve in the House.

His resignation will now trigger the fifth special election this year -the third brought about by a sex scandal. Under Oregon law, Democratic Gov. John Kitzhaber has the authority to set the date of the contest, and he issued a statement Tuesday indicating that he will set the date for 80 days after Wu's official resignation date, triggering both a primary and a general election. But that date won't come until Wu resigns following the debt limit vote.

"With Congressman Wu's announcement this morning that he intends to resign after the debt-ceiling issue is resolved, many Oregonians - particularly those in the 1st Congressional District - want to know what will happen with his seat," Kitzhaber said in a statement. "I want a fair process that will include as many Oregonians as possible to ensure that the people in the 1st Congressional District have adequate representation in Washington, DC. But to do that, I must first have Congressman Wu's official resignation, which I have not yet received. Once that is in hand, I intend to call for a special election to elect a Representative to Oregon's 1st Congressional District, with sufficient time for the Secretary of State to call a special primary."

The fiscally-conservative Club for Growth has released the results of an internal poll that shows Sen. Richard Lugar's GOP primary opponent running neck-and-neck with the longtime senator, with a significant number of Republican voters saying they are undecided.

Thirty-four percent of likely GOP primary voters surveyed said they would vote for state Treasurer Richard Mourdock if the election were held today. Thirty-two percent said they would vote for Lugar, while 34 percent said they are undecided.

When asked whether Lugar "has done some good things for Indiana, but after thirty-five years in Washington, it's time for a change," 69 percent said it is true, while 19 percent said it is untrue and 12 percent did not know or refused to answer.

The Club has not made an official endorsement in the Indiana Senate race, but the group has run a television ad warning Lugar over the debt limit. The Club's president Chris Chocola, who represented Indiana in Congress, has publicly stated that "it would probably be best" if Lugar retires.

Ohio Republicans are bringing in big bucks for the National Republican Congressional Committee, giving the GOP campaign arm a $500,000 check at Tuesday morning's political conference meeting, according to a Republican source present.

The impressive effort was aided by the delegation's most prominent member, House Speaker John Boehner, who attended the joint fundraisers to help them raise the money. Their latest donation is on the heels of a $1 million contribution Ohio Republicans made to the NRCC last month.

The presentation came during the group's continuing push for members to pay their dues and give to the GOP campaign arm, providing important financial footing early in the cycle.

The NRCC narrowly outraised the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee in the second fundraising quarter and has outraised its Democratic counterpart for four straight months. The NRCC ended June with nearly $11 million in the bank, while the DCCC had $7.4 million.

During the regular public call for donations, several other members anted up to the NRCC. Rep. Peter Roskam, R-Ill., gave $100,000, while freshman Rep. Steve Womack, R-Ark., donated $91,000. Rep. Howard Coble, R-N.C., who only raised $25,000 for himself this past quarter, gave the NRCC a $20,000 check. Rep. Randy Neugebauer, R-Texas, donated $19,000.

1:09 p.m. CORRECTION: The previous version of this post incorrectly stated the percentage in one CNN/ORC poll sub-sample who said Republicans were more responsible for the country's current economic problems. That figure is 35 percent.

Does the Democratic argument that George W. Bush's policies are responsible for the nation's economic plight still have legs, more than two years after he left office? According to the latest CNN/ORC and ABC News/Washington Post surveys, the answer is yes.

When asked whether the policies of President Obama and the Democrats or Bush and the Republicans are more responsible for the country's current economic problems, 57 percent said Bush and the Republicans are more responsible, according to the CNN/ORC poll, while just 29 percent said Obama and the Democrats are more responsible. 10 percent said both are responsible while three percent indicated they find neither to be culpable.

What's more, the percentage that find Bush and the Republicans more responsible has jumped from the CNN/ORC poll conducted in September of 2010, less than a year after Bush left office. Then, 53 percent said Bush and the Republicans were more responsible while 33 percent said Obama and the Democrats were responsible.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Jindal with a huge cash advantage in Louisiana, EMILY's List goes with a Marshall plan in Nevada and Hoekstra catches an early break in Michigan. Here's today's rundown:

8) A couple of figures that tell you all you need to know about the Louisiana governor's race: Republican Gov. Bobby Jindal had $8.8 million in the bank according to this latest campaign finance report, while his only Democratic opponent had less than $1,000 cash on hand.

Jindal is in a very strong position in his reelection campaign. The one remaining question is whether term-limited state Sen. Rob Marionneaux will enter the Democratic race, at least giving his party a credible candidate.

7) Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich has been raking in the money lately. Gingrich reported a net worth of at least $6.7 million and income of at least $2.6 million in 2010, the Los Angeles Times reports. That's a major jump up from 2006, when Callista Gingrich reported the couple's net worth between $873,000 and $2.4 million

Gingrich Productions accounted for most of Gingrich's reported worth and income, the Times notes. Under the assets category, Gingrich listed Basilica of the National Shrine, which pays Callista Gingrich a salary for singing in the church choir.

6) Crossroads GPS is releasing new round of television ads targeting five Democratic senators. The spots go after Sens. Bill Nelson, D-Fla., Claire McCaskill, D-Mo., Jon Tester, D-Mont., Ben Nelson, D-Neb., and Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio.

Jon Stewart is fed up with Congress, "The 112th Congress has been completely unable to muster a debt ceiling agreement to avoid a wholly unnecessary default probably because it's such a complicated thing that we've only been able to do it in the past ... a 102 times."

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 0:20, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell agree on everything except the debt ceiling.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump!

Texas Gov. Rick Perry became the latest candidate looking at the 2012 presidential race to weigh in on New York's gay marriage legalization -- and, though he frequently touts his social conservatism, he didn't come out against the law.

Perry, speaking at a forum in Aspen Friday, called himself an "unapologetic social conservative" who personally opposed gay marriage -- but who also believed strongly in the 10th Amendment.

"Our friends in New York six weeks ago passed a statute that said marriage can be between two people of the same sex. And you know what? That's New York, and that's their business, and that's fine with me," Perry said, according to the Associated Press. "That is their call. If you believe in the 10th Amendment, stay out of their business."

While gay marriage has been a hot issue lately thanks to developments in New York, it's not one that most 2012 candidates have eagerly weighed in on. Most of the candidates roughly fall into two camps: the more-libertarian "states rights" crowd and the social conservative "constitutional amendment defining marriage as being between a man and a woman" backers. Here's a rundown on where everyone stands:

Romney: Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney voiced his support for a constitutional amendment at the New Hampshire debate.

Pawlenty: Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty discussed his opposition to gay marriage this weekend during an interview with CNN's Candy Crowley. "To say that [same-sex marriage] is somehow the equal of all possible domestic relationships defies common sense," Pawlenty said.

Pawlenty had said during the New Hampshire debate that he supported a constitutional amendment.

Santorum: Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum's feelings about gay issues are well-known, thanks in part to sex columnist Dan Savage's campaign against him, and when Perry made his comments Santorum took the opportunity to express his strong opposition to legalization.

Santorum tweeted on July 23, "So Gov Perry, if a state wanted to allow polygamy or if they chose to deny heterosexuals the right to marry, would that be OK too?"

Santorum made his support of a constitutional amendment clear at the first GOP presidential debate in New Hampshire.

Bachmann:: At the New Hampshire debate, Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., first said she didn't think it was the role of the president to come in and interfere with state law, when asked whether she'd actively try to overturn laws allowing same-sex marriage. However, after the rest of the candidates answered whether they would support a constitutional amendment (and the majority answered in the affirmative), she emphasized that she actually would support a constitutional amendment.

She also, along with Santorum, signed a pledge against same-sex marriage circulated by Christian conservative Iowa group The Family Leader.

Earlier this month, we brought you five Senate race questions we are watching this summer and beyond. The country's gubernatorial races are developing at a slower pace, but there are still some key early questions worth keeping an eye on:

5) Why are Democrats bullish about winning Indiana?

Rep. Mike Pence, R-Ind., is the clear early favorite in contest, which is the party's only serious opportunity to pick up a governorship that Republicans currently hold. Pence can raise money from his national conservative network and is popularity among conservative activists. Democrats, though, are looking to paint Pence as a creature of Washington, well to the right of term-limited GOP governor Mitch Daniels.

The likely Democratic nominee -- former state House Speaker John Gregg -- is a gun rights-supporting opponent of abortion rights. Sound familiar? That could also be a description of former-Rep. Brad Ellsworth, the highly-touted 2010 Democratic Senate nominee who never had much luck against Republican Sen. Dan Coats. But Democrats are bullish on the mustachioed former state legislator's chances; and he comes across as more of an old school state pol than Ellsworth.

In addition, governors' races in Indiana have operated independently of the national political environment. So while Indiana is traditionally a Republican state, it has little impact on the gubernatorial campaign. President Obama carried the state in 2008, but Daniels also comfortably won re-election as governor. In 2000, George W. Bush beat Al Gore 57 to 41 percent, while Democrat Frank O'Bannon won reelection against GOP Rep. David McIntosh 57 to 42 percent in the governor's race. That said, the success Republicans had in 2010 -- they now hold all statewide offices-- should not go overlooked.

4) Which states will Republicans be aggressively targeting?

Look no further than North Carolina and Missouri, where Republicans have found their favored candidates, in former Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory and Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder, respectively. (Neither has announced their campaigns yet, but are expected to run.) Both have been in the news and both have gone after the incumbent Democrats in their home states.

On the Democratic side of Connecticut's open seat Senate contest, an active three-way race is already well underway. But in the GOP race, little is certain, and so far, mainly minor candidates have been providing the most clarity about their intentions.

40-year old Jason McCoy, the Republican mayor of Vernon said last Friday he will explore a Connecticut Senate run in 2012, and won't be running for reelection. He'd be intriguing candidate, but not one that looks like an immediate major force, party strategists say.

"Running for Senate is a whole different animal," said Chris Healy, a GOP strategist and former Connecticut Republican Party chairman. "To do it out of being a very effective mayor ... and a very articulate candidate [is one thing], but this is a whole different league, and I'm not quite sure he's ready for that yet."

The only Republican officially in the race so far is long-shot candidate Brian K. Hill, a Hartford attorney and former active duty military officer who ran as an independent write-in candidate in 2010 and received just 559 votes. Former Rep. Chris Shays is thinking about running and some Republicans are recruiting former U.S. Comptroller General David Walker to join the Republican field as well.

Updated 11:25 a.m.

Rep. Mike Ross, D-Ark., announced he will not seek reelection in 2012, becoming the fourth moderate Blue Dog Democrat to head to the exits this year after a midterm election cycle that decimated their ranks.

In a statement released Monday morning, Ross cited Congressional gridlock and partisan politics as driving his decision to step down.

"A lot has changed since I was first elected to the U.S. Congress in 2000. Congressional campaigns have gone from several months in length to never-ending, costing millions of dollars every two years. As a result, fundraising never ends nor do the political attacks," Ross said.

"While I have worked hard to bring folks to the middle to craft commonsense solutions to the many problems that confront our nation, Washington is mired in gridlock, gamesmanship and constant partisan bickering. Too many issues and votes are based on partisan politics rather than good public policy."

Ross has expressed interest in running for governor, when current Gov. Mike Beebe, D-Ark., is term-limited. He said in his comments that a possible gubernatorial campaign in 2014 "factored in his decision" to retire.

"Whether I run for Governor in 2014 is a decision I have not yet made and won't make until sometime after my term in this Congress ends," Ross said.

"But I do know if I was re-elected to the U.S. Congress next year, my term in the Congress would overlap with the Governor's race. I believe it would be impossible to successfully run for Governor here at home, while effectively carrying out my congressional duties in Washington. That wouldn't be fair to the people who elected me to Congress and it wouldn't be fair to my supporters in a race for Governor."

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. David Wu's Congressional career is hanging by a thread, Rick Perry makes a play in New Hampshire, Bachmann goes on the attack against Pawlenty, and will Obama invoke the 14th Amendment to unilaterally raise the debt ceiling?

7) Breaking overnight: Amid a report that he had a sexual encounter with a teenage girl, embattled Rep. David Wu, D-Ore., will not seek reelection. Late Sunday, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Steve Israel, D-N.Y., called on the House Ethics Committee to investigate the charges.

Wu had already drawn primary challengers, including state Labor Commissioner Brad Avakian, who issued a statement late Sunday saying, "David Wu should do the right thing and step aside now." Stay tuned to Hotline On Call for the latest on this developing story.

6) Texas Gov. Rick Perry gave his first Granite State newspaper interview, phoning the New Hampshire Union Leader's John DiStaso and describing himself as "a full-throated unapologetic fiscal conservative" and "an unapologetic social conservative" who is "pro-life" and "pro-traditional marriage." Read more here.

The news comes as Real Clear Politics reports that Perry is all but certain to launch a presidential campaign and is nearing an announcement set for the second half of August. But Perry won't be listed on the Ames Straw Poll ballot next month. Check out Hotline On Call's rundown of the nine candidates who will be on the ballot.

5) The West Virginia GOP voted Saturday to hold a primary election, and not a state convention, to select the state's presidential candidate, even as some Republicans argued a convention would allow the state to select a candidate candidate before the primaries across the nation are in full swing and the frontrunners are established. The Parkersburg News & Sentinel has the story.

House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., on Monday formally transmitted a request for the House Ethics Committee to investigate Rep. David Wu, D-Ore., following a weekend report he had a sexual encounter with a teenage girl.

Wu announced Sunday evening that he will not seek reelection, a Democratic source told National Journal.

Wu has decided not to run for an eighth term, but Democratic leadership is pressuring Wu to resign, according to a source with knowledge of the effort. The source was not authorized to discuss the effort publicly and therefore requested anonymity.

(PICTURES: Who is Leaving the House?)

Wu, who has faced scrutiny after allegations of bizarre behavior that caused several staff members to resign, has not commented publicly on the report by The Oregonian, which disclosed the Thanksgiving 2010 encounter on Friday. The paper said the girl, a daughter of a Wu family friend, had called Wu's office to report the alleged attack.

He had withstood pressure to quit earlier this year, even after several Democrats said they would challenge him in next year's primary. Late Sunday, Pelosi and Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Steve Israel, D-N.Y., called on the House Ethics Committee to investigate the charges.

(PROFILE: Rep. David Wu, D-Ore.)

"I call on the Ethics Committee to initiate an investigation into the allegations against Congressman Wu," Pelosi said in a statement. "With deep disappointment and sadness about this situation, I hope that the Ethics Committee will take up this matter."

"New allegations of unacceptable behavior by Congressman Wu are extremely serious and disturbing," Israel said in a statement. "I strongly agree with Leader Pelosi's request that the House Ethics Committee use its authority to begin an immediate investigation."

Wu's decision to not seek reelection was first reported by POLITICO.

The Iowa Republican State Central Committee announced the Republican presidential candidates that will qualify for the Aug. 13 Ames Straw Poll, but left off one of the most prominent potential contenders from the ballot.

Texas Gov. Rick Perry will not be listed on the ballot, even as he's seriously considering a campaign. Also left off is former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, who hasn't made up her mind whether to run but still polls in double-digits. Six candidates paid the $15,000 fee to qualify: Reps. Michele Bachmann, Ron Paul, and Thaddeus McCotter; businessman Herman Cain, former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, and former Sen. Rick Santorum.

Craig Schoenfeld, the Iowa executive director of Americans for Perry, told the Des Moines Register it was "unfortunate" that Perry wasn't included.

The Iowa Republican Party's central committee decided Saturday to list three other candidates: former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman and Newt Gingrich.

The winner of the straw poll takes away little more than bragging rights, but it is a crucial test for several candidates who have placed their bets on performing well in Iowa - Pawlenty, Bachmann and Santorum, in particular.

Pawlenty, who has campaigned in the state for months, aired three different television ads and assembled a sizable staff, has the most riding on the poll's outcome. After months of low poll ratings, a strong showing would prove that Pawlenty is still in the game.

What we at The Hotline learned this week:

-- Look beyond President Obama's national approval rating; there are warning signs in some of the key battleground states Obama must win if he wants a second term. In Ohio, Quinnipiac measures Obama's approval rating at just 46 percent, with 50 percent disapproving. In Iowa, according to a Mason-Dixon poll released this week, he trails former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, 42 to 39 percent. Romney also leads Obama in Michigan, 46 to 42 percent, in an EPIC-MRA poll. Earlier this month, a Granite State poll in New Hampshire pegged his job approval at 46 percent, with 49 percent disapproving. Obama won all of these states in the 2008 presidential election with at least 52 percent of the vote.

-- If she didn't know it before, Rep. Michele Bachmann knows it now: She's not in Minnesota's 6th district anymore. Bachmann assembled a solid campaign team, but she's got a powerful cadre of Republican establishment players arrayed against her. Bachmann's former staffers are behind leaks about her health (And if Bachmann has anything in spades, it's former staff), and Republicans like Fred Malek are increasingly open with their opposition to Bachmann's candidacy.

-- This week gave a preview of issues other presidential candidates may use to go after Texas Gov. Rick Perry if he jumps into the race. Texas news outlets are questioning his story on job creation, Texas' spending habits, and Perry's history with the Democratic party. Perry looks great, but the shine comes off anyone once they officially become a candidate.

-- One thing former state Senate President Mike Haridopolos reminded us: If you're a member of the Florida state legislature, your time in the Tallahassee swamp is probably going to follow you for the rest of your political career. See, for example, ex-Rep. Tom Feeney, R-Fla., or Rep. David Rivera, R-Fla. Even Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., had to answer questions about his time as Speaker. With Haridopolos gone, another legislator, former Florida House Speaker Allan Bense, is taking a second look at the race. We'll see how eager Floridians are to drain the swamp - either in Tallahassee or Washington.

-- Then again, we're struck by the number of Republican strategist types who don't believe the eventual Republican nominee in Florida is in the race yet. Congratulations, Gov. Rick Scott, you changed the model.

Rep. David Wu, D-Ore., is once again the subject of damaging allegations - this time that he pushed a teenage girl into an unwanted sexual encounter, according to a story in the Oregonian.

The Oregonian report, published late Friday, cites multiple unnamed sources that a "distraught young woman" called Wu's office this spring and accused him of the encounter, which appears to have occurred over Thanksgiving 2010. When confronted, Wu said the incident was consensual. The young woman is said to be the daughter of a donor and high school friend of Wu's.

Wu released a statement to the Oregonian late Friday night, which didn't directly address the allegation. "This is very serious, and I have absolutely no desire to bring unwanted publicity, attention, or stress to a young woman and her family," Wu said in the statement. He has not responded to a request for comment from Hotline On Call.

The new allegation is the latest--but by far the most serious--in a string of erratic behavior that began last fall in the runup to the November elections. In one incident, Wu sent to his staffers a photo of himself in a Halloween tiger costume. His behavior become so unpredictable his aides began to avoid scheduling public appearances with him, even though he faced a competitive re-election.

The Senate voted on Friday to reject the House-passed "Cut, Cap, and Balance" measure as the the debate over the debt ceiling continues. With the August 2 deadline looming, all of the Sunday public affairs programs will focus on the issue:

Sunday

Meet the Press hosts White House Chief of Staff William Daley, Sen. Tom Coburn, R-Okla., Newark Mayor Cory Booker, former Sen. Chuck Hagel, R-Neb., and Rep. Adam Kinzinger, R-Ill.
Face the Nation hosts Daley, Sens. Jon Kyl, R-Ariz., Dick Durbin, D-Ill., Mark Warner, D-Va., and Saxby Chambliss, R-Ga.
This Week hosts Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, former Sen. Trent Lott, R-Miss., and former Sen. Tom Daschle, D-S.D.
Fox News Sunday hosts Geithner, and Reps. Joe Walsh, R-Ill., and Donna Edwards, D-Md.
State of the Union hosts Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif. and former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty.

Check out the listings for the other weekend shows after the jump.

The Democratic edge in party identification that helped to propel President Obama to a decisive victory in 2008 has waned significantly, while Republicans have gained markedly and exclusively among whites, according to a new report from the Pew Research Center out Friday.

In Pew Research polls conducted in 2008, 46 percent of whites identified more as Republicans, while 44 percent identified more as Democrats. Today, Republicans have a wide edge over Democrats among white voters, 52 percent to 39 percent.

The gains among whites "are particularly pronounced among the young and poor," according to the report. Democrats held a seven-point edge among whites under age 30 in 2008, but Republicans now hold an 11-point advantage among that group.

Obama carried whites aged 18-29 by ten points in 2008, according to exit polls.

Among whites earning less than $30,000 a year, what was a dominating, 15-point advantage for Democrats is now a four-point GOP edge.

Pew has compiled a telling, side-by-side comparison of party ID in 2008 and 2011, divided by subgroup.

But, according to the report, the Republican Party's growth "has been limited in two important ways." From the report:

First, the steep gains in GOP leaning that helped the party in the 2010 midterms have not continued, as the overall balance of partisan attachments has held steady in the first half of 2011. Second, while more independents say they "lean" toward the Republican Party, the GOP has not gained in actual party affiliation since 2008 - just 28% of registered voters, in both years, call themselves Republicans. Instead, the growth category continues to be political independents, with a record high 34% of registered voters choosing this label in 2011.

The analysis is based on a number of surveys conducted from 2008-2011. Around 77,000 registered voters were interviewed during that time period. Results by year have a margin of error of +/- 1.0 percent, except for 2011 figures, which carry a margin of error of +/- 1.5 percent.

Arizona Republican Gov. Jan Brewer has indicated her desire to move up the state's nominating contest to January, placing the Grand Canyon State in the middle of some already chaotic jockeying taking place among several other states in advance of 2012.

"It only makes sense that our state be positioned to have its voice heard loud and clear when it comes to the presidential nomination process," Brewer, who has unilateral power to move the date, said in a statement, according to the Yuma Sun. "Moving Arizona's presidential preference primary election into January would ensure that our citizens are major players in the 2012 campaign."

Arizona is only the latest state floating the possibility of moving up its primary.

New Hampshire's elections chief has told associates he'll likely move up the state's primary -- tentatively scheduled for Feb. 14 -- to mid-January, amid other states' maneuvering.

Meanwhile, the Michigan GOP's policy committee recently recommended that the state's primary be held between February 28 and March 6. The state's primary is currently scheduled for February 28, and Senate GOP Leader Randy Richardville is recommending Michigan "hold to our guns" and stick with the date, which would violate the RNC rule stating that only the first four states of Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada can hold nominating contests prior to March 6.

What Michigan does could also affect Florida, where a 10-member committee has been tasked with selecting a date for the state's primary by October 1. If Michigan keeps their primary in late February, Florida lawmakers - who are committed to going fifth - would likely leapfrog Michigan to ensure it stays ahead of them. The Orlando Sentinel points out, meanwhile, that nobody has been appointed yet to serve on the Florida committee that will decide the date.

A sign of the difficult plight Democrats face against Republican Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal and his $10 million raised: State Sen. Rob Marionneaux -- who would be Jindal's the most credible Democratic challenger thus far -- said he will decide within the next two to three weeks whether he will make a gubernatorial bid, the New Orleans Times-Picayune reports.

But with an October 22 primary and November 19 general election looming, noteworthy Democrats have not been in any rush to rev up a campaign against the first-term Republican governor. The fact that Democrats are still waiting on a term-limited state legislator who is still weeks away from a decision with just a few months left before the election speaks volumes about how safe Jindal appears at this point.

A Southern Media & Opinion Research poll conducted in late April for businessman Lane Grigsby found that 55 percent of likely voters rated Jindal's performance as governor as excellent or good.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Rick Perry receives some encouraging news in a new poll, but Huckabee says Perry has some explaining to do. Meanwhile, ABC Sports red flags a Pawlenty ad and could there be another GOP contender in the Florida Senate race? Here's today's rundown:

7) Do you believe in miracles, followed by lawsuits? ABC Sports intends to present Tim Pawlenty with a cease-and-desist letter for improperly using footage from the 1980 "Miracle On Ice" U.S. Olympic hockey gold medal hockey win.

This is not the first time a campaign has run into issues using sports footage in a campaign ad. Remember then-Sen. Russ Feingold's 2010 ad featuring Randy Moss which was flagged by the NFL?

6) Former Florida House Speaker Allan Bense is considering entering the state's GOP Senate primary, though he said he has no timeline for a decision, and stressed he was "shading on the no side," the St. Petersburg Times reports. The recent exit from the race of state Senate President Mike Haridopolos has sparked speculation that more Republicans will enter the field.

5) The Wall Street Journal reports that during 2010, long-term unemployment was disproportionately a problem in New Jersey, Georgia, Michigan, South Carolina, North Carolina, Illinois and Florida, according to Labor Department data expected to be released later this month. It's worrisome news for President Obama, who will be aggressively contesting Michigan, North Carolina and Florida.

In at least two of those states -- Florida and Michigan -- competitive Senate races are also likely in store for Democratic incumbents. And in North Carolina, Democratic Gov. Bev Perdue faces a tough re-election. It's not 2010 anymore, but the story should serve as a reminder of what some incumbents are going to have to deal with this cycle.

Jon Stewart, on former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty taking a bold stand against charisma: "Hey look, this is not a popularity contest ... oh, oh it is?"

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 1:15, when David Letterman goes over Rep. Michele Bachmann's, R-Minn., plan to outlaw pornography.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump!

As the debt ceiling debate continues, the issue has weaved its way into several campaigns this summer, with conservative groups using ads to warn vulnerable Republicans and Democrats against voting for an increase without significant cuts, and candidates themselves using the subject to go on offense in their own spots.

Conservative groups have selectively targeted senators over raising the debt ceiling, specifically going after vulnerable incumbents perceived as moderates in both parties up for re-election in 2012.

The Club for Growth, a fiscally conservative group, released television ads last week targeting Sens. Dick Lugar, R-Ind., and Orrin Hatch, R-Utah. The spots hit the longtime senators for voting for the Wall Street bailout and the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac bailouts, and implore the viewer to tell their senator "no more debt."

On Thursday, another conservative group, Concerned Women for America, bought television time in Nebraska to pressure Sen. Ben Nelson, D-Neb., to oppose raising the debt ceiling without significant cuts.

The biggest news nugget in the otherwise sleepy Washington Senate race this week was the emergence of Scott Stanzel, a former George W. Bush spokesman, as a possible candidate against Sen. Maria Cantwell, who unlike many other Democratic incumbents, looks to be in very solid shape in her 2012 reelection bid. While Washington leans Democratic, Republicans have fielded competitive statewide candidates in recent years. But so far, no one has stepped up to take on Cantwell.

First elected in 2000, Cantwell won reelection in 2006 with 57 percent of the vote. She polls well and has a healthy $2.26 million in the bank. Democrats say part of her success is due to the issues she has worked on in the Senate, which resonate with voters back home in the Evergreen State.

"Her focus has been energy, environment, technology. If anything, she comes from technology," said veteran Democratic strategist Cathy Allen. "She's been someone who is at the forefront of what does technology mean in terms of everything from privacy issues to exactly what we are doing with taxation issues."

While no major Republican is currently running against Cantwell, the GOP have landed top statewide recruits in the recent years, and have done so this cycle in two other races. Attorney General Rob McKenna, who is running for governor, is a popular politician who even ran ahead of President Obama statewide in 2008. And King County Council Member Reagan Dunn is a big get in the race to replace McKenna as AG. Some Democrats say the GOP focus in those two races means the Senate race gets less attention from the party.

"It just takes so much that the Republican Party is actually doing something pretty smart," said Allen. "What they are deciding to do is to put all their eggs in one basket, and it's called the governor's race."

Updated at 2:15 pm

Just one month after overseeing Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman's presidential campaign launch, Susan Wiles is leaving the struggling operation.

The campaign manager said Thursday that she was leaving of her own volition and denied any conflicts with other staff. "This was my decision,'' she said. "It was more about feeling like it was time."

"I'm less of a strategist and more of a start-up person," she added.

Wiles most recently ran Florida Gov. Rick Scott's winning campaign in 2010 and said it was time for a break. The Huntsman campaign was based in Orlando, about 130 miles northeast of her home in Ponte Vedra.

In a statement, senior Huntsman adviser John Weaver praised Wiles, but the shakeup nonetheless raises questions about the viability of the former Utah governor's campaign. It has struggled to gain traction since Huntsman returned from his role as U.S. ambassador in China in the spring.

"Susie has served the campaign well and was vital in getting it off the ground in such a short time-frame. In just under three months Governor Huntsman has returned from China, launched a campaign and created a strong infrastructure in the three early primary states," Weaver said. "He's built important relationships with donors, as well as political, policy, and grassroots leaders that other candidates have been courting for half a decade."

The looming battle for the House is heating up as both parties are out today touting their top recruits.

In a roundtable this morning with reporters, National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Pete Sessions and NRCC Vice Chairman Greg Walden released their second round of additions to the "On The Radar" status of their "Young Guns" program.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee also touted their own slate of recruits this morning, pushing 27 recruits where they believe they can win back both GOP-held and open seats.

Added to the first step of the "Young Gun" challenger program is: Abel Maldonado, running in CA-23 against Rep. Lois Capps, D-Calif.; Justin Bernier, Mike Clark, Mark Greenberg and Lisa Wilson-Foley, all running in the open seat in CT-05; Luke Messer, running in the open seat in IN-06; Rob Frost, running in OH-10 against Rep. Dennis Kucinich, D-Ohio; Ed Martin and Ann Wagner, both running in an open seat in MO-02; former state Railroad Commissioner Michael Williams and former Texas Secretary of State Roger Williams, both former Senate candidates who are now running in a newly-created seat in what will be TX-33; and Greg Anders, running in WA-02 against Rep. Rick Larsen, D-Wash.

The DCCC also highlighted in a release this morning candidates in 21 districts they will need to put them back on the path toward a majority. The Democratic committee hasn't named its first candidates to its challenger program, the Red to Blue program. Early recruits include Luis Garcia, who just announced his campaign on Wednesday against embattled Rep. David Rivera; former Rep. Dina Titus and Assembly Speaker John Oceguera both announced this week they'll run somewhere in Nevada; former first Lady Christie Vilsack made her challenge against Rep. Steve King official Tuesday; in PA-06, Manan Trivedi announced he'll again challenge Rep. Jim Gerlach; both former Orlando police chief Val Demings and former Rep. Alan Grayson are pitted against Rep. Daniel Webster; Army veteran Brendan Mullen in the open seat in IN-02 and former Rep. Bill Foster, now running in a redistricted IL-11; state Senate Pres. Brandon Shaffer against Rep. Cory Gardner, R-Colo., in CO-04; as well as several candidates in other competitive seats in IL-08, IL-17, NM-01 and NJ-07.

1:08 p.m. CORRECTION: The poll was conducted by New York-based Abt-SRBI. A previous version of this story misidentified the firm that conducted the poll.

The headline in Thursday's Washington Post screams "Poll: Romney is still GOP front-runner," but the number from the ABC News/Washington Post poll that could have the biggest impact in Washington is the percentage of Americans who say they are inclined to re-elect their representative in Congress: 30 percent.

A remarkable 63 percent of Americans say they are "inclined to look around for someone else to vote for," the highest percentage ever recorded in the ABC News/Washington Post poll, which goes back to 1989.

Just prior to the 2010 election, when Republicans decisively dispatched the Democratic majority in the House by netting 63 seats, only half of Americans said they were inclined to look around for someone else, while 32 percent were inclined to re-elect their representative.

While the anti-incumbency measure is at a new high, the 30 percent who say they are inclined to re-elect their representative is not quite a new low. Last July, just 25 percent of Americans said they were inclined to send their representative back to Congress. The new high in those inclined to "look around" is in part due to fewer Americans in the poll saying they have no opinion or that it depended on the candidates on the ballot.

The percentage of Americans inclined to "look around" is "especially up" among Democrats, according to an analysis by pollster Gary Langer, which he calls "a possible sign they're stirring as they did not in 2010." With the uncertainty surrounding the redistricting process in big states like California and Florida, 2012 could shape up to be as volatile as the three most recent congressional elections.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. The latest campaign committee fundraisers are out, an ethically-embattled Republican gets his first Democratic opponent, and Rick Perry can count on support from his wife. Meanwhile, Plouffe gives Nick Ayers a little bit of campaign advice. Here's today's rundown:

8) MSNBC appears to be preparing to hand its 6 p.m. time slot to Rev. Al Sharpton.

7) The New York Times sits down with Tim Pawlenty's campaign manager, Nick Ayers. A moment of candor from the interview:

"The most real assessment of what I'd really be dealing with came from David Plouffe. He pulled me aside at the White House Correspondents dinner. He said, "I want to congratulate you on your job. I can't wish you the best but I can tell you what the next year or two of your life will be like. A lot of people will tell you that you're going to have a blast. They're all lying to you." He said, "This is going to be the worst year of your life, but you're going to never regret it and you're going to learn a bunch."

Democratic and Republican political operatives were divided on who has gained ground politically and who has lost yards in the debt ceiling debate, however, Democrats have a more cohesive view on how the negations have played out so far, while Republicans are more uncertain. Those are two key findings in this week's National Journal Political Insiders Poll.

Democratic Insiders see a clear, no-contest winner--President Barack Obama--while a slim plurality give the nod to House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, followed closely by Obama, and then House Speaker John Boehner.

Jimmy Kimmel doesn't approve of the GOP presidential Twitter debate, "This debate combined the excitement of CSPAN with the suspense of typing."

Conan O'Brien, on former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty's Google problem: "Fellow candidate Tim Pawlenty said he also has a Google problem, when you Google his name it says 'No results found.'"

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 1:36 for the next GOP presidential debate, via video game.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump!

President Obama has a scant, four-point lead over his closest Republican rival in the crucial battleground state of Ohio, while Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, holds healthy advantages in his re-election campaign, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll released early Thursday.

The poll underscores Obama's vulnerabilities in the Buckeye State. Voters are split on re-electing Obama, and a plurality disapprove of the job he is doing as president: 46 percent of voters approve of the job he is doing, while 50 percent disapprove. That is down from a 49-percent approval rating in mid-May, in the wake of the killing of Osama bin Laden.

But Obama leads former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, 45 percent to 41 percent. He holds a larger lead over Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., 49 percent to 36 percent. Obama also outpaces Texas Gov. Rick Perry, 47 percent to 35 percent, and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, 51 percent to 35 percent.

Against three of the four GOP contenders (all but the unpopular Palin), Obama is beneath the 50-percent threshold. That is because only 46 percent of voters believe he deserves re-election, identical to the percentage of Ohio voters that approve of his job performance. Among independent voters, just 40 percent believe he deserves re-election, while 51 percent do not.

Ohio Republicans have yet to coalesce around a presidential candidate. Romney (16 percent) and Palin (15 percent) run neck-and-neck among Republicans, with Bachmann (11 percent) and Perry (8 percent) not too far behind.

Tim Pawlenty's campaign is dialing back expectations. Way back.

Alex Conant, the former Minnesota governor's spokesman, told National Review that the campaign hopes to do better than sixth or seventh in the mid-August Ames Straw poll that is usually a strong barometer for a campaign's success during the Iowa caucuses. It's a meager expectation for a candidate who has pinned his hopes of winning the Republican primary on succeeding in the Iowa caucuses.

"We want to show progress in Ames, [do] better than sixth or seventh," Conant told National Review.

The remarks aren't an aberration from the campaign. Pawlenty himself told the Newton Daily News this week that he's looking only for improvement from the straw poll. "We have to show some reasonable improvement at the straw poll, and then we've got to be in a position to win, or come close to it, in the caucuses," he told the paper.

According to polls in the Hawkeye State, finishing better than sixth would represent an improvement for Pawlenty. A Des Moines Register poll taken a month ago showed the former governor in sixth place, earning just six percent support and badly trailing front-runners Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., and Mitt Romney.

Second quarter fundraising figures are in, and they offer an early look at who's looking vulnerable, and who's been effective in stockpiling money for competitive re-elections ahead. Here's our rundown of the winners and losers.

A bonus for House Race Hotline subscribers - check out our comprehensive charts of second quarter totals for Freshmen, Veterans to Watch and Open Seats.

Impressive Incumbents

Rep. Allen West, R-Fla., again smashed fundraising records, bringing in nearly $1.62 million - more than a couple presidential candidates (we're looking at you, Rick Santorum). House Budget Chairman Paul Ryan, R-Wis., also pulled in nearly $900,000 -- and raised four times the amount of his hyped Democratic opponent Rob Zerban.

Rep. Tom Latham, R-Iowa, raised an impressive $589,000 for his matchup against Rep. Leonard Boswell, D-Iowa. That's more than three times the amount Boswell brought in.

Other top performers include: Reps. Bob Dold, R-Ill ($541,000), Steve Stivers, R-Ohio ($436,000) Patrick Meehan, R-Pa. ($431,000), Mike Fitzpatrick, R-Pa ($426,000) and Rep. John Barrow, D-Ga., who raised $404,000 despite being targeted by Georgia Republicans in redistricting.

Other honorable mentions for freshmen in potentially competitive races: Reps. Cory Gardner, R-Colo ($303,000); Frank Guinta, R-N.H. ($301,000) Michael Grimm, R-N.Y., ($357,000) Nan Hayworth, R-N.Y ($381,000) Jim Renacci, R-Ohio ($355,000), Bob Gibbs, R-Ohio ($327,000), Kristi Noem, R-S.D. ($370,000), Quico Canseco, R-Texas ($365,000) and Sean Duffy, R-Wis. ($363,000).

Incumbent Flops

The list of incumbent flops has to start in Iowa, where both a Republican and Democratic congressman facing serious threats with redistricting put up weak fundraising quarters. Rep. Steve King, R-Iowa, who faces a well-funded challenger in former Iowa First Lady Christie Vilsack, only raised $168,000. He now has less cash-on-hand than his challenger - a rare occurrence this early in the cycle.

Boswell, as mentioned above, also was badly outraised by Latham, only bringing in $189,000.

Wisconsin's recall election season is in full swing, but looming on the horizon in Ohio is another fight over a law that limits collective bargaining right for public employees, and a new Quinnipiac University survey shows a majority of voters believe the law should be repealed at the polls this November.

56 percent of voters surveyed said the law should be repealed while just 32 percent said it should be kept in place. Just as in Wisconsin, the issue is very polarizing: There is a strong partisan split when it comes to the measure, passed earlier this year and known more commonly as Senate Bill 5, with 56 percent of Republicans saying the law should be kept and 35 percent of Republicans saying it should be repealed. Seventy-five percent of Democrats said the law should be repealed while only 14 percent of Democrats said it should be kept. 52 percent of independents favor repeal while 33 percent prefer keeping the law in place.

Late last month in Ohio, the group at the forefront of the effort to do away with SB 5 delivered over a million signatures to the secretary of state calling for the law to be placed on the ballot this fall, all but assuring the measure will face a vote.

Even as most voters surveyed support repeal of SB 5, they are much more receptive to the elements of the law that call for public employees to pay for a certain percentage of their health insurance premiums and pensions than they are to the portions that limit collective bargaining and ban employee strikes. 58 percent of voters surveyed support requiring public workers to pay at least ten percent of their wages for their pensions while 60 percent support requiring public employees to to pay at least 15 percent of their health insurance premiums.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Dewhurst makes his Senate bid official in Texas, while a Democrat easily retains his seat during the first recall election in Wisconsin. And Dina Titus is trying to make a congressional comeback, but which district will she run in? Here's today's rundown:

8) Former Rep. Dina Titus, D-Nev., who was unseated in 2010 by GOP Rep. Joe Heck, announced Tuesday that she will run for Congress again in 2012. Democratic sources expect she's more likely to run in the newly-created 4th District, even though she could seek a rematch against Heck.

7) Rep. Allen West, R-Fla., sent an email to Democratic National Committee Chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz Tuesday, calling her "vile, unprofessional ,and despicable," "a coward," "characterless," and "not a Lady," and demanding that she "shut the heck up."

Wasserman Schultz's communications director responded quickly: "I don't think that Congressman West is upset at the Congresswoman, but rather with the fact that she highlighted that he and other Republicans are once again trying to balance the budget on the backs of seniors, children and the middle class."

6) A new Quinnipiac University poll out early Wednesday shows Republican Gov. John Kasich's approval rating in the Buckeye State has slipped yet again. Now, just 35 percent of Buckeye State voters approve of the job Kasich is doing, while half disapprove. Additionally, 56 percent of Ohio voters think the new law limiting collective bargaining for public employees should be repealed, while just 32 percent think it should be maintained.

The second leg of Wisconsin's slate of recall elections took place Tuesday, and as expected, Democratic state Sen. Dave Hansen retained his seat in the 30th District, easily defeating Republican David VanderLeest. With 99 percent of precincts reporting, Hansen led VanderLeest 66 percent to 34 percent, according to the AP.

Hansen caught a break earlier this summer when state Rep. John Nygren, a second Republican, was disqualified from the race after falling short of the requisite number of signatures needed to be on the ballot. Nygren's departure left VanderLeest, who has a long court record, as the only Republican in the race.

GOP primaries were also held in two other Democratic-controlled districts Tuesday. Republican Jonathan Steitz advanced to a matchup against Democratic state Sen. Robert Wirch in District 22 while in District 12, Kim Simac advanced to a matchup against Democratic incumbent state Sen. Jim Holperin. Those elections will take place August 16.

Next up are six elections on August 9, all in districts where GOP incumbents face recalls. For more, check out Hotline On Call's Wisconsin recall election calendar.

A majority of Americans wants their political leaders to compromise to reach a deal to raise the federal debt ceiling, but many Republicans say their party should stick to its positions, according to a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll out Tuesday night that illuminates the undercurrents beneath the current standoff in Washington.

Wide majorities of Democrats and independents say they want Democratic congressional leaders to make compromises in the current budget debate, and almost 70 percent of independents want Republican leaders to compromise. But 53 percent of Republicans want their party's leaders in Congress to stick to their positions, even if it makes a budget consensus more elusive. That number is even higher among those who identify as Tea Party supporters.

The poll underscores the current state of play for Republicans, who, in many cases, find themselves stuck between a base that does not want to see the debt ceiling raised and a broader electorate that is seeking compromise and action in Washington.

As in other surveys released this week, the poll shows Americans warming to raising the debt ceiling. A slight plurality now favors raising the debt ceiling (38 percent for, 31 percent against), a stark turnaround from last month, when just 28 percent of Americans thought Congress should raise the debt limit.

With Texas Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst's set to enter the race this week and former Texas Solicitor Ted Cruz securing yet another high profile conservative endorsement, a tough primary fight appears to be brewing in the Lone Star State Senate contest.

But where does that leave former Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert? While Dewhurst and Cruz have dominated the headlines lately, Leppert remains a factor in the race, thanks to solid fundraising and his willingness to tap into his personal wealth -- in fact, he finished June with more cash on hand than any other non-incumbent running for the Senate in the country.

And Leppert has no problem envisioning a place for himself in the race: to the right of the rest of the field on economic issues. The former CEO of one of the country's largest construction companies, Leppert has made tackling the country's economic woes the focus on his Senate campaign. He argues that his business experience and time as the chief executive of one of the nation's largest cities uniquely qualify him to understand and address the complexities of the current economic crisis.

"Too often we're judging success today by somebody walking in a room yelling and screaming and then walking out," Leppert said in an interview with Hotline on Call. "How many have actually lived through it and run a business and dealt with it?"

Leppert hasn't been shy about staking out conservative stances on the issues. He was one of the first Senate candidates in the country to fully embrace House Budget Chair Paul Ryan's budget proposal. In fact, Leppert's only problem with Ryan's plan was that it didn't go far enough. He said he wished Ryan had taken on social security reform, as well as Medicare and Medicaid.

But some conservatives have painted Leppert as a moderate as a result of some of his positions and associations from his time running for and serving as Dallas' mayor, a non-partisan office. He was endorsed by the SEIU and met with Democrats and other left-leaning groups, including ACORN and LGBT advocacy organizations during his time as mayor.

Leppert said those incidents do not taint his conservative record and merely reflect his willingness to work with those with opposing views. He said he did not cave in when the SEIU asked for pay and benefit increases for their members. And he explained that while he met with many of the city's liberal groups, they often didn't like what he had to say.

Sen. Richard Lugar, R-Ind., has gone up with an early television ad in which he sells himself in a unique way: as a necessary veteran leader pushing back against the Obama administration alongside a new crop of conservative Republicans.

"I hope you'll agree that a veteran, fighting alongside our new recruits will help," Lugar says in the ad.

Lugar spent $140,000 for the television ad from July 20-29, according to a Democratic source who tracks ad buys. That's not an insignificant buy. Lugar's early ad underscores the already aggressive battle he is fighting, not just against his GOP opponent, state Treasurer Richard Mourdock, but also against outside groups: The Club for Growth recently launched a television ad blasting the longtime Republican senator.

Lugar goes after President Obama in the ad, an expected maneuver, as conservative critics have charged that he has worked too closely with the president.

"President Obama needs to understand that for jobs to grow, business must expect to make a profit," Lugar says in the ad.

Check out the ad below the jump:

While the first draft of North Carolina's redistricting maps were bad news for at least four House Democrats, a revised plan is even more dismal for them, as a proposal from state Republicans now lumps four incumbents into two districts.

The changes were spurred to rework the majority-black 1st District represented by Democratic Rep. G.K. Butterfield, but the map has further reaching implications for the already-endangered Democratic quartet of Reps. Larry Kissell, Mike McIntyre, Heath Shuler, and Brad Miller. In particular, it drives up GOP performance in the districts of the three Democrats with proven conservative appeal: Kissell, McIntyre, and Shuler.

Under the new map, Kissell and McIntyre are drawn into the 8th District, which Kissell currently represents. The proposed 8th District has a 12 point GOP advantage and would have voted 57 percent for John McCain in 2008. McIntyre had been spared the most in the last round, but neither running against Kissell nor heading to a vastly different 7th District gives him good options.

The new 7th District has an 11 point GOP swing and also voted 57 percent for McCain. Instead of giving it more coastal Republicans, the second draft map extends the 7th District north into suburban Johnston County outside Raleigh, in a move some Democrats say is designed to entice Johnston-based GOP state Sen. David Rouzer into a run. McIntyre lives just inside the new 8th, but could feasibly move back into his old territory.

The other major problem the map presents occurs from shifting the current 6th and 13th Districts, which moves current 13th District Democratic Rep. Brad Miller, into the same 4th District seat as Democratic Rep. David Price in the Research Triangle area. The now-open 13th District, once running across most of the Virginia border, now shifts more centrally within the state, while GOP Rep. Howard Coble's 6th District takes over much of that current territory and what was proposed to give the 13th District during the first visualization.

Updated at 5:31 p.m.

Former Rep. Pete Hoekstra, R-Mich., who earlier this year passed on the opportunity to challenge Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow, has reversed course and will soon launch a campaign for the Republican nomination, a GOP source has confirmed to Hotline On Call. The development was first reported by MIRS, a Lansing-based legislative news service.

Sources say Hoekstra's official announcement is expected very soon, within the next week or so.

Republicans had struggled to recruit a candidate against Stabenow, despite polls suggesting she was vulnerable. Hoekstra was the first of several high-profile Michigan Republicans to decline a Senate bid against Stabenow, a two-term incumbent who has been targeted by national Republicans despite running in a Democratic-leaning state.

One of those Republicans, former Michigan Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land, told Hotline On Call that Hoekstra called her Monday night and said he was "seriously looking at it again."

"The fact that he called -- that's a pretty big deal," said Land, an ally of Hoekstra's who only began considering a Senate bid of her own after Hoekstra's April announcement. Land said she got the impression that he would only make such a call if he was jumping into the race -- not merely considering it.

Hoekstra, who retired from Congress last year after losing a hotly contested race for the Republican nomination for governor, announced "after serious consideration" in April that he wouldn't enter the race.

"This was an extremely difficult decision for us to make as we saw strong points both for and against running," he said at the time. "However, in our final analysis, we agreed that it was not in the best interest of our family at this time to enter the race." In February, the District-based law and lobbying firm Dickstein Shapiro LLP announced that Hoekstra would be working for them.

One day after Republican Mike Haridopolos dropped out of the Florida Senate race, GOP Sen. Marco Rubio reiterated his intention to remain neutral in the contest; though he isn't stopping Republican candidate Adam Hasner from dropping his name.

Hasner is framing the race as a two-man contest between himself and former Sen. George LeMieux, and a redux of the heated 2010 primary between Rubio and former Gov. Charlie Crist. LeMieux was one of Crist's closest advisers.

"I was obviously involved in a primary where people took sides and I didn't like that so I'm going to let that play out,'' Rubio said Tuesday of the Hasner-LeMieux rivalry. "I don't think (Hasner) has said anything that's inaccurate, but I'm not involved in helping him or anybody else.''

Just hours after Haridopolos quit the race on Monday, Hasner -- who was an early Rubio backer in the 2010 Senate race -- released a fundraising email declaring, "There's now a clear choice between a principled, limited-government conservative and Marco Rubio ally in Adam Hasner, and the original 'Charlie Crist Republican' in George LeMieux."

In his explanation for why he dropped out of the race, Haridopolos cited an inability to balance the responsibilities of being both the state Senate president and a U.S. Senate candidate.

"I know that trying to balance that and being a senate president is a tough assignment. I don't know how I would have done it if I was still speaker," Rubio said Tuesday.

David Williams, the GOP gubernatorial nominee in Kentucky, released his first television ad of the general election Tuesday, a 30-second spot in which he says his father is "the best man I ever knew, and I've spent my life trying to live up to the standards he set."

Like Williams, Democratic Gov. Steve Beshear also opened his general election campaign with an ad emphasizing his family, unveiling a spot in May that included his wife mentioning the two have been married for over 40 years (also an indirect barb at the GOP ticket, which had to deal with divorce-related headlines during the primary).

The Williams campaign says the new spot, which was produced by FP1 strategies, is running in the Paducah, Bowling Green, Louisville, Lexington, and Northern Kentucky markets. A Democratic source who tracks ad buys said that $103,000 is being spent to air the ad.

"For most voters in this state, personality is the threshold issue. They are unlikely to vote for someone they don't like. Once they sort that out they might get to the issues," said Al Cross, former Louisville Courier-Journal political writer who now teaches at the University of Kentucky.

The second quarter is a critical quarter for Senate challengers: it allows them to make a name for themselves against their better-known opponents by raising money, showing they have the resources to run an aggressive campaign. But many highly-touted recruits also flounder, suggesting they're unable to make the case to prospective donors.

As we noted at the end of last quarter, it's very early in the cycle, and a lot can change in the coming months. Still, in every quarter, there are some noteworthy takeaways from Senate candidates' figures. So without further ado, here are The Hotline's Senate fundraising winners and losers (for a full rundown of all Senate races, Hotline subscribers can go here):

WINNERS

Ohio Treasurer Josh Mandel: Mandel raised $2.3 million, best among Senate challengers, $500,000 better than Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, and more than many other incumbents. Brown will have the money he needs, but Mandel looks like he'll be right on his heels. What's more, without Ken Blackwell in the GOP race, Mandel won't have to spend as much in the primary.

Former Democratic National Committee Chairman Tim Kaine: Kaine raised $2.25 million, doubling former Sen. George Allen's $1.1 million haul. Republicans pointed to the money Kaine got from national Democratic groups, but that's not an argument that's going to resonate very much with swing voters, especially since tons of outside money will pour into the swing state from both sides in 2012.

New Mexico Auditor Hector Balderas: Nobody really knew what to expect from Balderas, who is facing Rep. Martin Heinrich in New Mexico's Democratic primary. Heinrich turned in a good period, raising $485,000 and finishing with $700,000 in the bank, but Balderas wasn't far behind, raising $400,000 in his first two months, finishing with approximately $370,000 cash on hand. The early read in New Mexico is that competitive primaries are in store on both the Democratic and GOP sides.

City Year Co-Founder Alan Khazei: National buzz surrounding Khazei's Bay State campaign has been non-existent as some Democrats remain hopeful that Elizabeth Warren will launch a bid of her own. But he quietly put together one of the most impressive second quarters of any challenger, pulling in $920,000 in Massachusetts. Khazei still had over $100,000 worth of debt in a separate FEC account, but considering how poorly the rest of the Democratic field performed, his number still stands out. And his background as a philanthropist should allow him to continue raising money in the future.

Sen. Scott Brown, R-Mass., had another solid quarter and leads the cash chase. If Warren gets in, she'd be poised to raise plenty of money from the liberal base, but Khazei's coffers will at the least give opponents something to at least think about.

Outspoken conservative Sen. Jim DeMint, R-S.C, knows how to time his endorsements for the maximum effect. Just as Texas Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst is preparing to announce his candidacy for the Senate, DeMint is backing his upstart rival, former state solicitor general Ted Cruz.

"An establishment candidate with deep pockets will enter this race soon so it's even more important now for freedom-loving Americans to unite behind Ted Cruz," said DeMint, referring to Dewhurst. "He's put together a very strong campaign but needs help from Texans and folks across the country to win."

Cruz has lined up early support from prominent conservative groups and figures, including FreedomWorks, the Club for Growth and Sen. Mike Lee, R-Utah, a Tea Party favorite.

DeMint's Senate Conservatives Fund raised over $9.3 million during the last cycle to help elect its preferred candidates. Cruz is the second Senate candidate so far this cycle to land an endorsement from the South Carolina senator. Ohio Treasurer Josh Mandel was the first.

Dewhurst enters the race as the early favorite, thanks to strong ties to the GOP establishment in the state, high name identification, and the ability to raise an impressive amount of money. But Cruz will be a formidable opponent who has coalesced conservative activists to his side.

The question for Cruz now is if he can keep the momentum going.

Updated at 11:37 a.m.

Sen. Scott Brown, R-Mass., leads Democrat Elizabeth Warren by a 53-28 percent margin among likely 2012 voters, according to a poll conducted for the senator and the National Republican Senatorial Committee.

Matched against Warren, who was passed over for the top job at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau in the face of GOP resistance and is considering a Senate run, Brown leads by a 25-point margin, with 18 percent undecided. He leads Newton Mayor Setti Warren, 57-21, and City Year co-founder Alan Khazei, 54-24.

Two-thirds of likely Massachusetts voters approve of Brown's job performance and 56 percent say he deserves reelection, according to the survey.

The Public Opinion Strategies poll showed Brown with a 62 percent favorable and 28 percent unfavorable rating; his favorables are six points higher than during his Jan. 2010 election. His job performance rating has climbed six points since April 2010.

The poll also shows that 60 percent of voters thought Brown, who ran promising to vote free of party orthodoxy, had been an "independent vote" in the Senate rather than asserting partisan interests ahead of the state's. Thirty-one percent said it had been the other way around.

Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spokesman Matt Canter said in a statement, "The only percentage that will matter to Bay Staters next November is that Scott Brown votes with extreme Republicans in Washington nearly 90 percent of the time. Not only does this month-old poll contradict other polls that show Brown's popularity slipping, but the simple fact that national Republicans feel the need to release it reeks of desperation and fear that Scott Brown is very vulnerable."

Conducted June 21-23, the poll included interviews with 500 likely 2012 voters and carries an error margin of plus/minus 4.4 percent, according to a memo from the polling firm.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Dewhurst gets ready to launch his Texas Senate campaign, while a former Bush aide mulls a challenge to Sen. Maria Cantwell. Meanwhile, Ovide's not the only conservative mulling a gubernatorial bid in New Hampshire while Hasner tries to seize the moment in Florida. Here's today's rundown:

9) Tragic news out of North Dakota, where state Senate GOP leader Bob Stenehjem was killed Monday when the SUV he was riding in overturned during a trip to Alaska, the AP reports.

8) Shades of John Edwards? New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, whose name has been bandied about as a possible 2016 presidential candidate, likes to look good. The governor paid $1,383.86 in January to a stylist who does hair and makeup for his girlfriend, according to campaign finance disclosure reports.

7) Scott Stanzel, a former White House spokesman for George W. Bush said Monday he will look at a challenge to Sen. Maria Cantwell, D-Wash. Cantwell raised over $1.38 million last quarter and does not have a challenger.

6) A new poll in Michigan finds former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, whose father governed the Wolverine State, leading President Obama, 46 percent to 42 percent -- statistically unchanged from a five-point Romney advantage in February. Obama won the state in 2008 by 16 percentage points.

President Obama and Democrats aren't quite "winning" the debt-ceiling debate, but new polls released this week in the heat of the negotiations show that they're moving public opinion in their direction.

According to a new CBS News poll released late Monday, Americans are now split on raising the debt ceiling, a significant change from last month. Now, 46 percent say the debt limit "should be raised, because otherwise the country could default on its loans, causing severe problems for the U.S. economy." That is up from just 24 percent in June.

Meanwhile, the percentage of Americans who say the debt ceiling "should not be raised because the country owes too much money already, and raising it would cause long term economic problems," has dropped from an overwhelming, 69-percent majority in June to a bare plurality of 49 percent today.

A USA Today/Gallup poll, also released late Monday, shows that a majority of Americans now believes an economic crisis will result if the two parties fail to reach an agreement by the August 2 deadline declared by the Treasury Department. A narrow plurality, however, doesn't think Social Security and veterans' benefits would be delayed by the failure to reach an agreement.

The CBS News poll also shows that the Democratic argument for a "balanced approach" -- a combination of spending cuts and tax increases -- is gaining popularity. Nearly two-thirds of Americans want a budget and debt agreement that contains a combination of the two, while only 28 percent of Americans want the agreement to contain only cuts to spending.

But the polls contain warning signs for Obama and Democrats. The CBS News poll -- in numbers released earlier Monday -- showed a 48 percent plurality still disapproves of the job Obama is doing on the issue. And while the poll shows Americans are more likely to blame Republicans in Congress (49 percent) than Obama (29 percent) for the current standoff, the parties could share the blame if they fail to reach a deal by the deadline, and that failure leads to severe economic consequences.

Currently, according portions of the USA Today/Gallup poll released early Tuesday, Obama's approval rating stands at just 45 percent -- though that is higher than the approval ratings for Congressional Democrats (33 percent) and Republicans (28 percent).

An internal poll conducted for the campaign of Sen. Dean Heller, R-Nev., and the National Republican Senatorial Committee shows the newly-minted senator with a slight lead over his likely Democratic opponent, Rep. Shelley Berkley.

Heller leads Berkley among likely voters in the survey, 48 percent to 44 percent. Heller's lead is within the margin of error for the poll. Eight percent of voters were undecided.

The Republican poll counters a Democratic survey released last month that showed Berkley leading Heller by five points.

According to a memorandum composed by Republican pollster Dave Sackett, Heller sports a positive, "two-to-one job approval rating." The memo, however, does not provide the respective percentages of voters who approve and disapprove of Heller, so it is unclear how familiar Silver State voters are with their new Senator. Heller was appointed to replace former Sen. John Ensign, R-Nev., taking office just ten weeks ago.

The poll also shows that fully half of likely voters disapprove of the job President Obama is doing, and 51 percent disapprove of the job Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., is doing. In a generic congressional ballot, a Republican has a slight, statistically-insignificant lead over a Democrat -- further emphasizing the degree to which Nevada is likely to be a key electoral battleground for all three different levels of federal office: president, Senate and House (though the later depends on the results of congressional redistricting, an issue now before the courts in Carson City).

The poll was conducted July 12-13 by the Alexandria, Va.-based Tarrance Group. The pollster surveyed 501 likely voters; the margin of error is +/- 4.4 percent.

Updated at 11:08 a.m.

Republican Mike Haridopolos has dropped out of the Florida Senate race, a surprising development that comes on the heels of a very tough month for the state Senate president, who recently appeared poised to mount a very competitive push for the Republican nomination.

From Haridopolos' statement: "Last year, I was elected President of the Florida Senate by my colleagues. We had a pretty remarkable first session, passing initiatives to cap government spending, reform Medicaid and pensions, and bring 'excellence' into the classroom. We did this all while balancing the budget without raising taxes.

"So I decided to take this message to Washington DC with the singular goal of cleaning up the mess. I declared I would be a candidate for the United States Senate while continuing to serve as Senate President. In the early going, I was encouraged with endorsements from state and national leaders, support from colleagues in the Senate and House, and donations big and small.

"Yet it became increasingly clear to me, and those around me, that the responsibilities I was managing on both fronts are in conflict. I truly believed I could handle both jobs, but I was wrong. Now I am determined to make it right. Today, I am announcing that I will no longer be a candidate for the United States Senate, nor will I seek any other office this year or next. Instead, I am re-dedicating myself to finishing the job you sent me to do here in Florida."

Haridopolos faced a string of negative headlines earlier this year, but he also turned in one of the most impressive first quarter fundraising hauls, even outraising Sen. Bill Nelson, D-Fla. He also landed a major endorsement from Rep. Connie Mack, R-Fla.

But last week, Haridopolos confirmed that both his longtime adviser and his campaign manager were departing the campaign. His fundraising also dropped off significantly during the second quarter.

His departure opens up the field for former state House Majority Leader Adam Hasner and former Sen. George LeMieux. LeMieux led the pack in second quarter fundraising, but still has to overcome ties to former Gov. Charlie Crist. Hasner, meanwhile, has caught the eye of many conservatives, but will have to pick up his fundraising pace in the months ahead to keep pace in the expensive state with several major media markets.

Two other Republicans -- retired U.S. Army Col. Mike McCalister and former Ruth's Chris Steakhouse CEO Craig Miller recently entered the Republican contest.

"Been asked for my reaction. As I've said a bunch of times before, the election is a long ways off. Right now I'm just focused on doing my job. Come Election Day if folks like the job I've done, the politics will take care of itself," Nelson said in a statement posted to his Facebook page Monday.

Haridopolos released a video announcing his decision which you can check out after the jump.

NBC News and the popular social networking website Facebook are teaming up to host a GOP presidential debate in New Hampshire on the Sunday before the state's 2012 primary, NBC announced Monday.

The debate, which will be held at 9 a.m. ET the Chubb Theatre at the Capitol Center for the Arts in Concord, will moderated by Meet The Press host David Gregory, and will air on NBC as a special edition of Meet. The debate will also stream live on Facebook.

The first New Hampshire presidential debate took place in Manchester on June 13. So far, two other debates have also been slated for the Granite State. One will take place on October 11 in Hanover and will be sponsored by by Bloomberg Television, the Washington Post, and WBIN-TV. That debate will be moderated Charlie Rose. Another debate will hosted by ABC News and WMUR-TV, but does not yet have a date.

New Hampshire's primary is tentatively scheduled for Feb. 14 as called for under GOP rules, but as Hotline On Call reported last week, New Hampshire's elections chief has indicated to associates that the Granite State primary will likely move to mid-January, amid jockeying by other states.

Freshman GOP Rep. Chip Cravaack's family is moving from Minnesota to New Hampshire, the Minneapolis Star Tribune reports, a decision that could open up the already vulnerable Minnesota congressman to attacks from opponents as he faces the prospect of a difficult reelection campaign.

Cravaack's family is moving New Hampshire so that Cravaack and his wife-- who Cravaack said often had to spend three days a week in the Boston area for her work with a medical supply company -- can spend more time with their children. Cravaack is selling his home in Lindstrom, Minnesota and moving closer to his district office, the Duluth News Tribune notes.

Maintaining an out of state a residence is a development that can open up a candidate to charges from opponents that he/she is out of touch with the district and its constituents. But Cravaack says his family is his foremost consideration.

"My wife and I said, 'Just because I'm in Congress, I'm still a father.' And being a father comes first," Cravaack told the News Tribune. "I have to take care of my children the best way possible, and still be able to serve the country at the same time."

Earlier, this year, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee identified Cravaack's 8th District seat as part of its "Drive to 25" campaign to retake control of the House and the Democrat-aligned House Majority PAC has already run an ad against the congressman, who upset 18-term Democrat Jim Oberstar in 2010.

Three Democrats -- former state Sen. Tarryl Clark, who lost to GOP Rep. Michele Bachmann in 2010, Duluth City Councilman Jeff Anderson, and former Rep. Rick Nolan are already vying for a shot at Cravaack's seat. The state GOP has criticized Clark for running in the 8th District, saying she is "carpetbagging." Clark bought a home earlier this year in Duluth.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Rick Perry nears a decision, Crossroads targets 10 House Democrats, and Sarah Steelman turns in another lackluster fundraising period. Meanwhile, the president taps a former Ohio attorney general to supervise the financial industry -- and he knows a thing or two about "Daily Doubles." Here's today's rundown:

8) Rep. Leonard Boswell, D-Iowa, and his 22-year-old grandson were able to fend off an armed intruder at Boswell's farmhouse on Saturday night. Boswell's grandson grabbed a shotgun and pointed it at the intruder, who fled, the Des Moines Register reports. No one was seriously injured.

7) President Obama will nominate former Ohio Attorney General and current director of enforcement for the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Richard Cordray to head the consumer watchdog organization.

And how about this: In 1987, Cordray was a five-time undefeated "Jeopardy" champ. The Columbus Dispatch has more.

6) As the New York Times notes, the decision to tap Cordray over Elizabeth Warren reflects political realities. But now, speculation over Warren's Senate ambitions will heat up. She plans to return to teaching at Harvard in the fall, an administration official told the New York Times.

Crossroads GPS is turning its fire against ten House Democrats this week, in a new ad campaign hitting them over their stewardship of the economy.

An affiliate of American Crossroads, it's the group's first major foray into the House race battlegrounds this year after playing a pivotal role in last year's midterm elections, spending over $70 million in 2010.

The first ad buys will air in districts of Reps. Mike Ross, D-Ark., Jim Matheson, D-Utah, Kurt Schrader, D-Ore., Heath Shuler, D-N.C., Bill Owens, D-N.Y., Tim Bishop, D-N.Y., Ben Chandler, D-Ky., Leonard Boswell, D-Iowa, Jerry Costello, D-Ill., and Lois Capps, D-Calif.

Each of the ads features footage of the member talking about reducing spending or the deficit, but then goes on to list bills they supported, such as raising the debt limit in the past or backing the $787 billion stimulus.

Similar to spots launched earlier this month in 11 states, the new ads will be aired for two weeks, and cost the group $1.4 million. It comes as negotiations between Congress and the White House over raising the debt limit are at a critical impasse.

"President Obama is leveraging his bully-pulpit for millions of dollars in free airtime, and as the debt negotiations reach a flashpoint we must and make sure Americans are getting the facts," Crossroads GPS President Steven Law said in a statement.

"President Obama and his congressional allies have already wasted hundreds of billions of our tax dollars, and we need to send them the message that they don't deserve another penny in taxes."

The most telling House fundraising numbers this quarter are coming from the members whose fortunes have been dramatically altered through the once-in-a-decade redistricting process. Some, like Rep. Brad Sherman, D-Calif., and Iowa Rep. Tom Latham, R-Iowa, lived up to the occasion, posting record fundraising hauls in anticipation of tough battles against other sitting members.

Others, like Reps. Brad Miller, D-N.C., and David Dreier, R-Calif., posted totals so weak, they're bound to spark retirement speculation.

Here's the full Hotline rundown, state-by-state, of the members affected by redistricting who proved their mettle and those who didn't.

California. The redistricting commission's dramatically-altered maps, while still being revised, put incumbents on both sides in danger. And no one fits the bill more than Rep. David Dreier, whose weak fundraising shows he may be considering retirement. Dreier pulled in just $45,000 for the quarter, but the veteran congressman still has a healthy $753,000 in the bank.

Meanwhile, one of the Republicans' more-promising recruits showed his mettle against a congresswoman who hasn't had to worry about a tough re-election in a long while. Rep. Lois Capps, D-Calif, likely running in a dramatically-altered district, picked up her fundraising pace, bringing in $256,000 for the quarter. But that was topped by former GOP lieutenant governor Abel Maldonado, who raised $287,000 and supplemented the total by putting in a quarter-million of his own money.

Capps still has a cash on hand advantage, $642,000 to $531,000, but it's close.

And it's shaping up to be a battle royale between one of the most influential House Democrats, Rep. Howard Berman, who was put in a district against Rep. Brad Sherman, D-Calif.

Sherman, an accountant by trade, reported raised $660,000 to Berman's $507,000 -- but $250,000 of Sherman's total was his own money, but still raising $416,000. Sherman has a sizable cash-on-hand lead though, banking $3.69 million to Berman's $1.5 million. Berman could run in a different district, but he's been preparing to take on Sherman.

Illinois. Redistricting leaves several Republicans in difficult positions--forced to run in either Democratic districts or challenge fellow GOP incumbents in a neighboring district. Republican Bob Dold will face a Democratic challenge no matter where he goes, but he's preparing either way and had a very impressive quarter, raising $541,000 and nearly $752,000 cash on hand. One of Dold's Democratic challengers, Brad Schneider, raised a strong $321,000.

Other Republicans weren't as cautious. Freshmen Randy Hultgren and Joe Walsh could face each other in a district, and each raised only $203,000 and $225,000, respectively. Already facing several Democratic challengers in an unfavorable district, Bobby Schilling raised only $213,000. Freshman Adam Kinzinger's best option is a challenge to Rep. Don Manzullo, R-Ill., and he'd start off with a big cash edge. Kinzinger raised nearly $296,000, but Manzullo only pulled in $74,000.

Iowa. The loss of a seat is leading to a matchup between longtime incumbents. Rep. Leonard Boswell, D-Iowa, looked to have the early advantage in his matchup against Rep. Tom Latham, R-Iowa, given that the newly-created Des Moines-based district gave President Obama 52 percent of the vote. But it's looking more and more like it's Latham that's ready for primetime.

Latham raised three times the money Boswell did in the second quarter, bringing in $590,000 to Boswell's paltry $189,000. Latham starts with a massive cash on hand advantage too, $1.47 million to Boswell's $286,000. If Boswell doesn't pick up the pace soon, he could find himself at a disadvantage for re-election.

On June 27, Rep. Connie Mack, R-Fla., endorsed Florida Senate President Mike Haridopolos' U.S. Senate candidacy -- an undisputed boost for the Republican's campaign. Since that day, however, Haridopolos hasn't had all that much to write home about.

Late this week, Haridopolos confirmed that longtime adviser Pat Bainter and campaign manager Tim Baker would be departing the campaign, a very notable -- and early -- shakeup for a candidate who, despite his early problems with negative headlines, has remained a major player in the race.

Meanwhile, Haridopolos' second quarter fundraising haul -- $900,000 -- was less than half of the very impressive $2.6 million he raised during the first quarter. And it was less than former-Sen. George LeMieux, R-Fla., who raised $950,000. There is an explanation for how well Haridopolos did in the first quarter. A Miami Herald analysis of Haridopolos' first quarter haul showed that he received large chunks of money from the special interests who wanted something out of the 60-day legislative session, which wrapped up in the spring. But LeMieux's quarter is a reminder that Haridopolos will be facing at least one well-funded opponent, and perhaps several.

Democrat Kate Marshall is off to an early lead in the money race ahead of the September 13 special election in Nevada's 2nd District.

Marshall, the state treasurer, reported raising nearly $170,000 since June 6, outpacing her Republican opponent Mark Amodei. The former state GOP chairman even had an extra week to raise funds, but only pulled just under $116,000 since May 30. At the end of June, Marshall had more than double the money in the bank that Amodei did -$206,000 to his roughly $100,000.

Marshall has raised more money total for the race so far, bringing in over $246,000 to Amodei's $139,707.

Marshall's solid fundraising gives Democrats an encouraging early sign in the race to replace now-Sen. Dean Heller, R-Nev. The contest in the district, which leans Republican at the national level, is likely to attract a lot of interest from outside groups, especially as Democrats see a chance for another chance to pick up a GOP-held seat in a special election.

"Nevadans know that Kate Marshall understands what's important to them, and that she will fight for them in Congress," Marshall spokesman James Hallinan said in a statement. "The overwhelming grassroots excitement for her campaign to grow jobs and protect Social Security and Medicare is clear when you look at Marshall's strong fundraising advantage."

But Republicans were quick to paint Marshall's support as a result of her connection to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev.

What we at The Hotline learned this week:

-- Neither party's base is going to be happy with the results of the debt talks. But in particular, the backlash against House Speaker John Boehner will speak volumes about just how much control the Tea Party types have over the GOP.

-- President Obama's second quarter haul was bigger than the entire GOP field's fundraising efforts combined. And with an average donation hovering at just $69, his reelection team will be able to go back to the well many times. But don't buy the $86 million number -- that's like adding the RNC's haul to Mitt Romney's campaign.

-- Several analysts have pointed out that simply having more money is hardly determinative in most congressional races. While that's technically true, it's important to remember that the last three cycles have been "wave" elections that tended to wash in many under-funded challengers. If 2012 is more of a neutral atmosphere, money could once again be a significant factor in many close congressional elections.

-- A lesson for candidates: Don't play games with your campaign finance numbers. Nothing makes blog fodder like calling out someone for fudging their numbers, and if D.C. picks it up, your hometown paper is probably going to write a story too. If you only raised $100,000, just admit it.

-- The big fundraising winner (and surprise) of the quarter: Ohio Republican Senate candidate Josh Mandel, who raised an impressive $2.3 million, more than Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, and nearly every other senator. He's the GOP's star recruit of the cycle, and looks like he'll give Brown a serious run for his money.

But while Mandel is an impressive recruit, his youth (he's 33, but looks even younger) could trip him up once he launches his campaign. He's already stumbled explaining away his enthusiastic cheering for Al Gore (as a college student in 2000) as part of his responsibility as student body president despite his conservative views.

-- Former Democratic National Committee Chairman Tim Kaine more than doubled former National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman George Allen's second quarter fundraising total in the Virginia Senate race, though neither had a particularly bad quarter. Kaine's $2.25 million put him in the top tier nationally of all Senate challengers while Allen's $1.1 million put him over $1 million better than his Tea Party-powered GOP primary challenger Jamie Radtke. Though Allen's campaign has attacked Kaine for raising money through outside groups, the fact of the matter is that personalities and policy positions matter much more to voters than the source of a candidate's campaign cash, especially in a race where outside groups will be lobbing in money on both sides all the way through November 2012.

The highlights of Friday's second quarter Senate fundraising news. Hotline subscribers can check back early next week for an exhaustive rundown of every race:

Land Of Enchantment (And Fundraising): In New Mexico, former Rep. Heather Wilson's campaign said Friday that she raised $452,000 during the second quarter, finishing with $604,000 in the bank. That's not too far behind Democratic Rep. Martin Heinrich's $485,000 second quarter haul (he finished with over $709,000 cash on hand) and is just ahead of Democratic Auditor Hector Balderas' $400,000 raised (he had approximately $370,000 in the bank). Still no word from GOP Lt. Gov. John Sanchez.

Treasure State Treasure Hunt: In the Montana Senate race, GOP Rep. Denny Rehberg raised $914,000 during the second quarter, finishing with just over $1.5 million in the bank. That's less than Democratic Sen. Jon Tester's second quarter haul of $1.2 million. Tester finished with over $2.3 million in the bank. We've said it before, and we'll say it again: This race looks like one of 2012's closest, from all angles.

Jason Doin' The Chasing: The Deseret News reported Rep. Jason Chaffetz, R-Utah, a likely challenger to Sen. Orrin Hatch, raised just over $123,000 in the quarter. That's a figure that is well behind Hatch's $1.3 million record-setting second quarter haul. But as we've noted before, the race in advance of Utah's convention makes the contest very much an inside game.

Suddenly, Not Susan: Another disappointing quarter in Nutmeg State for former Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz. Bysiewicz was doubled up by Democratic rival Rep. Chris Murphy last quarter, and this quarter her money woes continued. Bysiewicz raised just $427,000, well short of Murphy's $925,000 mark and Democratic state Rep. William Tong's $550,000 haul.

Updated at 7:47 p.m.

A little over two weeks remain until the debt ceiling deadline expires and Members of Congress and President Obama remain deadlocked. This Sunday's public affairs programs will again focus on the battle on Capitol Hill and within the White House over tax loopholes, rates and entitlement spending.

NBC's Meet the Press will speak with Office of Management and Budget Director Jack Lew about the ongoing debt negotiations between the White House and Congress. Sens. Dick Durbin, D-Ill., and Jim DeMint, R-S.C. will also join the program to discuss the economy, the budget, and debt negotiations.

Lew will also appear on ABC's This Week. Sen. Jon Kyl, R-Ariz., and Rep. Raul Labrador, R-Idaho, will also appear on the program.

CBS' Face the Nation will also speak with Durbin as well as Sens. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., and Tom Coburn, R-Okla.

Fox News Sunday will host Chairman of the Republican Study Committee, Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, and the Ranking Member of the House Budget Committee, Rep. Chris Van Hollen, D-Md. Staying on the economy and the debt ceiling issue, Chris Wallace will speak with Republican presidential contender Herman Cain to get his thoughts.

A special "Meet the Press Jobs Summit" with Ohio Gov. John Kasich, Honeywell CEO David Cote, former New Orleans mayor Marc Morial, Mesirow Financial's Chief Economist Diane Swonk and CNBC's David Faber will substitute for Meet's usual roundtable.

If you are looking for non-debt ceiling related content, tune into CNN tonight at 8pm for Larry King's one-hour, Harry Potter special. "CNN Presents: Harry Potter - The Final Chapter," features never-before-seen footage from the film and a tour of the Wizarding World of Harry Potter at the Universal Orlando Resort. King will also interview the stars of the film, Daniel Radcliffe, Emma Watson, Rupert Grint, Tom Felton, Helena Bonham Carter and Robbie Coltrane.

Get the complete listings after the jump.

Rep. Dale Kildee, D-Mich., first elected to the House in 1976, announced Friday that he will not be seeking re-election next year. He is one of the oldest members in the House, turning 82 in September.

"After careful consideration, I have decided to retire at the end of this term to enjoy more time with my wife, three children and ten grandchildren," Kildee said in a statement.

"Now that the new congressional maps have been approved by the Michigan State Legislature, I am confident that the 5th district will remain in Democratic hands and that it is an appropriate time to announce my retirement. While I know I would be able to win re-election in the new 5th district, I've decided that after 36 years in Congress it is time to retire."

During his tenure in the House, Kildee was a fierce defender of labor, but also had a culturally conservative streak. He opposed abortion rights, and was one of a handful of pro-life Democrats left in the House.

Kildee's seat should easily remain in Democratic hands - as it's currently drawn, it voted 64 percent for President Obama in 2008, and stayed solidly Democratic in the new map that was passed. Kildee has relatively reelections throughout his 18 terms. His last threat was in 2002 after redistricting in 2002 put Kildee and then-Democratic Rep. Jim Barcia in the same district. Barcia decided to run for the state Senate instead.

But another Kildee could be representing the district in 2012. Dan Kildee, the congressman's nephew, is a possible successor. The younger Kildee briefly ran for Michigan governor last year, and served as Genesee County treasurer.

Embattled Rep. David Wu, D-Ore., raised $230,000 this quarter -- nearly four times the amount he raised at this point in the 2010 election cycle, a signal that he is not yet ready to give up his 1st District seat despite growing primary opposition.

Wu's campaign has nearly $343,000 cash on hand, according to disclosure reports filed with the Federal Election Commission on Friday. That puts him far ahead of a growing field of Democratic primary challengers. State Labor Commissioner Brad Avakian, who has already reported a number of Democratic endorsements in the race, raised $195,000 and had $124,000 in the bank at the end of June.

Wu has been largely silent on the campaign trail this cycle, showing caution following reports earlier this year of his erratic behavior leading up the last year's midterm elections, along with the subsequent exodus of many of his staff members. Despite his quiet showing so far and 50 percent disapproval rating statewide, according to a recent automated survey from Public Policy Polling, Wu continues to outpace his own 2010 fundraising, nearly quadrupling the $60,400 he reported in the second quarter of 2009.

Don't always buy into the hype.

Democrat Rob Zerban, who was recruited to challenge Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis., told Hotline On Call late last month he would be posting a "big number" when he reports his 2nd quarter fundraising figures to the Federal Election Commission. A review of his report tells a different story.

The Wisconsin Democratic Party touted Zerban's haul Friday, saying in a release he raised "$220,000 and has about $205,000 cash-on-hand." What they don't say is that $120,000 of that figure is from Zerban himself. Zerban in fact raised just over $100,000 from outside donors -- nearly half of which came from the liberal clearinghouse ActBlue.

Compare that to Ryan's second quarter haul: Nearly $900,000 for the quarter, with $3.8 million in the bank. And most of Ryan's money came from inside Wisconsin.

To be sure, Zerban's haul is better than past Ryan opponents -- state Democrats touted the fact that he raised more than any previous Ryan challenger had for the entire election cycle. But if he is to have a shot at unseating the House Budget Committee chairman, he'll need to pick up the pace.

He got lots of national attention the last several months, but failed to capitalize on the fundraising front.

2:29 p.m. UPDATE: A review of Landry's second quarter FEC report reveals why he did not want to release his figures in advance of his filing. He raised just $94,500 during the second quarter, spending over $57,000 and finishing with $190,000 in the bank.

As second quarter fundraising numbers continue to surface, Rep. Jeff Landry, R-La.. is adamant he won't be releasing them in advance of tonight's midnight deadline.

"The Congressman will not be releasing his FEC report prior to the official filing," a press release from Landry's campaign said Friday.

Translation: you want my fundraising numbers, go navigate the FEC website yourself. And maybe expect to be hitting refresh at 11:59 p.m.

His campaign clearly thought a terse statement was necessary given the interest in Landry's race -- or more precisely, which race he'll be in. After his district was eliminated in redistricting, the freshman Republican hasn't said where he'll run, although it's likely to be against Rep. Charles Boustany, R-La., who announced earlier this week he raised nearly $475,000 in the second quarter and he still has $1.1 million in the bank.

Another maxim of politics though is that good fundraising hauls are going to be touted by campaigns in advance of the federal deadline -- so it's a good bet that Landry's will fall short of Boustany's impressive total.

Sen. Ben Nelson, D-Neb., is one of the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents in 2012, but by looking at the fundraising race, you wouldn't know it.

As Hotline On Call reported earlier this morning, Nelson raised $910,000 during the second quarter and ended the period with a solid $2.9 million cash on hand. Nebraska Attorney General Jon Bruning, the presumed GOP frontrunner, announced Friday that he raised just $334,000 in the same period, ending with $1.3 million in the bank.

Bruning's tally is one of the weakest among frontrunning Republican challengers this quarter, though he still has a decent-sized warchest thanks to his campaign's early start. Bruning raised over $860,000 from November 2010 to the end of March, and had also transferred over $610,000 from an authorized committee.

He is favored to advance to general election showdown against Nelson, but still faces a GOP primary field that includes state Treasurer Don Stenberg, who is running to his right, and state Sen. Deb Fischer, who entered the race last month.

Veteran Rep. Bill Young, R-Fla., isn't doing much to tamp down on those perennial retirement rumors.

The Republican lawmaker reported raising just $6,500 in the second quarter, according to his Friday filing with the Federal Election Commission, and that came entirely from just four political action committees. He raised no money from individual donors.

He also got a refund of $2,216 from the postal service for "unused bulk postage," so his campaign committee technically netted $8,716. Young still has nearly $147,000 cash on hand.

The paltry sum is a sharp decline from his first quarter numbers - which still weren't that impressive for a House veteran. In the first three months of the year, he reported raising $58,000.

Young admitted last cycle he had decided to retire in 2010 but changed his mind at the last minute after hearing attacks leveled against him. Low fundraising totals are nothing new for him - but failing to collect from a single individual donor is a sign that he's not focused on sticking around.

Young has lagged in fundraising in the past -- at this point in the cycle in 2009, he raised only $49,000 - but he ramped up and ended up raising over $680,000 for his reelection bid last year.

Updated at 12:40 p.m.

BOSTON -- Intent on preserving his state's first-in-the-nation cachet, New Hampshire's elections chief has indicated to associates that the Granite State primary will likely move to mid-January.

New Hampshire Secretary of State William Gardner is empowered to shift the date to preserve the Granite State's first-primary status and, after the calendar mosh pit that the 2008 primaries devolved into, has told colleagues he is convinced that pressure from other states to move up their own voting dates will likely force him to expedite New Hampshire's tentative Feb. 14 date called for under GOP rules. With Florida officials jockeying to prioritize voting there and South Carolina expected to push ahead of Florida, New Hampshire could bump up further.

"He's still measuring where in the overall calendar. His first priority, as it always has been, is New Hampshire being first. But he also wants sufficient days between other primaries," Massachusetts Secretary of State William Galvin, a Gardner confidante, told National Journal.

"It's pretty obvious it's not going to be in February," he said.

The National Association of Secretaries of State is meeting this week in West Virginia, with voting dates in key states up in the air. Florida state law calls for a Jan. 31, 2012 primary, but the Republican National Committee has called for a later date. And both South Carolina and Nevada are eyeing Florida.

The news of Gardner's plan to move up New Hampshire's primary comes days after the Michigan Republican Party's policy committee recommended that its primary be held between February 28 and March 6. The state's primary is currently scheduled for February 28, and Senate GOP Leader Randy Richardville is a strongly advocating that Michigan "hold to our guns" and stick with the date, which would violate the RNC rule stating that only the first four states can hold nominating contests prior to March 6.

Florida is seriously considering holding its primary on March 1, and has been working with the RNC to avoid ugly penalties that would result from breaking its March 6 rule. But if Michigan follows through with its February 28 primary date, Florida lawmakers -- who are determined to hold the fifth contest -- would likely move back into mid-February. If that happens, it's virtually assured that both Iowa and New Hampshire will be voting in January.

Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, D-Ariz., posted another strong fundraising quarter as she continues to recover from a gunshot wound to the head from an attack this past January.

The Arizona Democrat pulled in over $325,104 in the past three months and still has over $787,000 in her campaign account, according to campaign finance reports filed Thursday with the Federal Election Commission.

As with her first quarter report, the injured congresswoman is getting by with a lot of help from her Democratic colleagues. $122,250 of that total came from political action committees, including several donations from party leadership. Democratic National Committee Chairman Debbie Wasserman Schultz, D-Fla., one of Giffords' closest friends in Congress, gave $5,000 through her leadership PAC, while House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer, D-Md., gave another $2,000 each.

Several other donations came from her Democratic colleagues, including $1,000 from retiring Rep. Dan Boren, D-Okla., a fellow member of the conservative Blue Dog Caucus. Former Rep. Anthony Weiner, D-N.Y., also made a donation on April 22 for $1,000.

Giffords' colleagues have pledged to keep her campaign account flush while she continues to undergo therapy after the January 8 attempt on her life in Tucson that left six dead and injured 13 others.

She was one of the first to be named to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's "Frontline" program for vulnerable incumbents. According to the Sunlight Foundation, Reps. Sander Levin, D-Mich., and Henry Waxman, D-Calif., hosted a May 31 fundraiser for Giffords at the DNC headquarters, and on June 22 the Blue Dog PAC held a breakfast reception to benefit her.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. President Obama will hold a press conference at 11 a.m. on the debt ceiling negotiations, while Sen. Ben Nelson just comes short of a million raised in advance of a tough reelection bid. Meanwhile, Dayton and state Republicans in Minnesota agree to end the state government shutdown and, yes, Dale Peterson still gives a rip. Here's today's rundown:

9) Remember Dale Peterson? The 2010 Republican candidate for agriculture commissioner in Alabama launched one of the more memorable ads of the cycle. Now Peterson is forming a political action committee registered in Virginia to support "God-fearing, family-valued, business-minded candidates who believe in the Constitution," called the "I Give a Rip about America PAC."

8) Democrats win ... at baseball. At the annual congressional baseball game Thursday, which raised money for The Washington Literacy Council and The Boys and Girls Club of Greater Washington, Democrats won 8-2 behind an impressive pitching performance from Rep. Cedric Richmond, D-La., who came within five outs of a no-hitter. Roll Call has more here.

7) Welcome to Congress, Janice Hahn. Now begin worrying about redistricting. Rep.-elect Hahn, D-Calif., could find herself in a new district that runs along the coast from the South Bay to Malibu, and stretching inland to grab parts of West Los Angeles and Beverly Hills, the Los Angeles Times reports. Much of that district is currently represented by influential veteran Rep. Henry Waxman, the Times notes. The other option for Hahn? A Long Beach district without her South Bay base that also includes two other Democratic incumbents.

Jon Stewart, on President Obama getting agitated during the debt-ceiling talks: "The President all stormed out and was like, 'Okay, tomorrow then.' ... That's not storming out. That ending a meeting by scheduling the next meeting."

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 0:20 to find out what you get if you donate to Obama's reelection campaign.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump!

A rundown of Thursday's Senate/House second quarter fundraising news:

Senate Races

Record Pace In The Beehive State Sen. Orrin Hatch, R-Utah, had a record-breaking quarter, raising $1.3 million and ending with $3.4 million in the bank. That's an impressive figure that will help Hatch push back against the outside spending against him, but with Utah's convention system, campaigning in the state is very much an inside game, and a matter of convincing the roughly 3,500 delegates to support you.

Business Casual: Businessman Greg Sowards, a long-shot GOP candidate, will report $334,000 cash on hand after "collecting $230,440 in the first 12-weeks spent fundraising," his campaign said. A large portion of Sowards' total was self-funded.

Aloha Statement: Rep. Mazie Hirono, D-Hawaii, raised $289,000 during the second quarter and ended the period with over $545,000 cash on hand but also has $127,000 in debt. In an email to supporters, Hirono finance chair Jadine Nielsen that all the money was raised in just the first five weeks since she announced her candidacy.

Akin It Count Rep. Todd Akin, R-Mo., who declared his candidacy in mid-May, raised $511,000 in the second quarter, finishing with nearly $1.2 million in the bank. Since April, Akin has spent $237,000, nearly 40 percent of what he raised in the same time period. Former Treasurer Sarah Steelman, who had a disappointing first quarter, has not yet released her second quarter figures.

Updated at 3:54 p.m.

Sarah Palin's political action committee will report later today that the 2008 Republican vice presidential nominee raised $1.658 million in the six-month period that ended June 30.

Despite spending most ($1.592 million) of that figure in the same fundraising period - $65,000 on other candidates and a $18,700 donation to the Young America's Foundation - the PAC has $1.402 million cash on hand.

Should Palin decide to pursue a 2012 presidential bid, none of the PAC funds would transfer to her campaign. Still, the figure--startlingly low for a semi-annual report--is a litmus test for her fundraising ability.

"We at Sarah PAC are very pleased and grateful for the tremendous support that Governor Palin receives from everywhere across our country," said Tim Crawford, the PAC's treasurer. "Sarah PAC more than doubled the amount we raised as compared to the same time period in 2009. We received more [than] 36,700 contributions from over 24,000 contributors."

Palin said in a Wednesday night appearance on Hannity that she will announce whether she will run in August or September, when "you do have to start laying out a plan if you are to be one to throw your hat in the ring."

Here at The Hotline, we're often reminded that campaigns can attract a diverse array of long shot candidates with disparate backgrounds and views. The Charleston State Journal offers a look today at three minor candidates in this year's West Virginia gubernatorial race:

-- Mountain Party Candidate Bob Henry Baber, who described himself as being "tight as bark on a tree," and said running a campaign that spends modestly is essential, is trying to make the most of his resources. Mountain Party leaders are helping collect unclaimed political signs from the primary, about 400 of which will be "recycled" with Baber stickers covering them.

-- Harry Bertram is running as a member of the American Third Position Party, which "believes that government policy in the United States discriminates against whites, and that whites need their own political party to fight this discrimination," according to its website.

-- With second quarter fundraising figures dominating the news that past couple of weeks, how's this for a campaign strategy: Marla Ingels, an elementary school counselor, refuses to accept campaign contributions.

Democratic and Republican Members of Congress agree that the economy would take a significant hit if the debt ceiling is not raised by early August, but they differ on how hard a blow that would be. Democrats see a catastrophe, while Republicans generally are a little less worried according to the results of this week's National Journal Congressional Insiders Poll.

Sen. Orrin Hatch, R-Utah, set a quarterly record for a Beehive State Senate candidate, raising $1.3 million during the second quarter of this year and finishing the period with $3.4 million in the bank.

Hatch, who is a top target of conservatives in 2012, is likely to be challenged by GOP Rep. Jason Chaffetz. While Chaffetz hasn't officially said he is running yet, the two sides have been jabbing at each other in anticipation of what could be a nasty campaign.

For his part, Hatch, who has already come under attack from conservative groups like the Club for Growth, has made an industrious effort to reach out to conservatives and Tea Party voters in recent months. His outreach has yielded mixed results.

Money will be an important factor in the Utah race and Hatch's cash will help him counteract the outside groups that advertise against him. But the state GOP convention will be Hatch's first test, and that means reaching out to some 3,500 delegates. Blanketing the airwaves would have a sizable impact in a populous state without a nominating convention, but in Utah, it's largely an inside game.

Surviving the GOP convention was something former-Sen. Robert Bennett was unable to accomplish in 2010. At the state convention, if a candidate receives 60 percent of the vote from delegates at any point, that person clinches the party's nomination in the race. If that doesn't happen, the top two candidates advance to a primary.

No surprises here--Democratic and Republican Members of Congress are sharply divided on which party will lose the most if an agreement on raising the debt ceiling is not reached by the August 2 deadline, according to this week's National Journal Congressional Insiders Poll.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Barbs are flying between Hatch and Chaffetz in Utah -- and the race hasn't even officially begun yet. Meanwhile, Scott Walker faces some tough numbers in Wisconsin while the ad war heats up in Nevada's 2nd District special election and Ron Paul launches ads of his own in Iowa and New Hampshire. Here's today's rundown:

6) Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, is hitting the airwaves for the first time in Iowa and New Hampshire with an ad that warns against raising the federal debt limit, Politico reports.

5) New York's Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo sat for a wide-ranging interview with the New York Times that is out today. Cuomo said Wednesday his top priority next year would be limiting retirement benefits for new state and city workers.

Other highlights: Cuomo predicted that President Obama would be re-elected and he took a gentle swipe at former-Gov. Eliot Spitzer. Read the full story here.

Jerry Seinfeld tries to "cure" Jon Stewart of his primal urge to ridicule Rep. Michele Bachmann's, R-Minn. husband, "Jon, comedy is a choice. You weren't born this way. You can resist it. You must resist it."

Stephen Colbert breaks down the debt-ceiling negotiations.

Today's Must See Movement -- Fast forward to 1:45 when Stewart's "Comedy Repression Therapist" arrives.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump!

President Obama has a lot of catching up to do in Iowa, according to a new statewide poll that shows him trailing Republican Mitt Romney and holding only a small lead against Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn.

The Mason-Dixon poll, conducted from July 5-7, shows Romney leading Obama by three points, 42 to 39 percent. When undecided respondents are asked to which candidate they would lean, Romney leads, 47 to 44 percent. For an incumbent president to only be receiving 44 percent of the vote -- with leaners pushed -- in a state he won with 54 percent of the vote indicates significant slippage from 2008.

Bachmann, meanwhile, trails Obama, 47 to 42 percent. But when leaners are pushed, she runs just neck and neck with Obama, trailing 47 percent to 46 percent.

Among likely Republican caucusgoers, Bachmann has a statistically-insignificant lead over Romney, 32 percent to 29 percent. Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty takes 7 percent of the vote, and former Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pa., earns 6 percent. No other candidate scores higher then 3 percent.

The state of the economy -- both in the state and the nation as a whole -- appears to be fueling Iowa voters' impressions of the president. A near-majority (47 percent) said the economy is poor, while 41 percent said it is fair. Iowa has one of the lowest unemployment rates in the country at 6.0 percent, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics; that's seventh-lowest in the country.

The poll was conducted for the 501(c)4 Every Child Matters Education Fund, which supports increased public spending to assist children. It surveyed 629 likely general election voters in the Hawkeye State. The margin of error is +/- 3.9 percent. There was an oversample of 300 likely Republican caucusgoers; those results carry a margin of error of +/- 5.7 percent.

A rundown of Wednesday's Senate/House second quarter fundraising news:

Senate Races:

Gearing Up: Rep. Tammy Baldwin, D-Wis., who has said she is likely to run for the seat of retiring-Sen. Herb Kohl, D-Wis., will report raising over $502,000 during the second quarter, ending the period with over $1.1 million in the bank. "Senate campaigns are expensive and fundraising is an important measure of support," said Baldwin in a release.

Chasing Amy: Sen. Amy Klobuchar, R-Minn., raised $1.1 million in the second quarter, finishing with $3.3 million in the bank, a solid sum for the popular incumbent. Klobuchar has not drawn any top challengers so far. Former state Rep. Dan Severson, a Republican candidate, has not yet released his second quarter figures.

Double Trouble: Former Sen. George Allen's, R-Va., second quarter haul -- $1.1 million -- was less than half of former Democratic National Committee Chairman Tim Kaine's $2.25 million raised during the same period. The cash on hand race is more competitive with Kaine finishing the quarter with about $1.8 million in the bank and Allen with $1.65 million. But Allen had an extra quarter for fundraising, and finds himself trailing in money.

Updated at 2:34 p.m.

Tim Pawlenty said Wednesday that he won't sign a controversial marriage pledge from an influential social conservative group, saying that he although he opposes same-sex marriage he would "prefer to choose my own words" rather than sign someone else's pledge.

The move could have important consequences for Pawlenty's campaign in Iowa, where the conservative group that wrote the pledge, The Family Leader, resides. Declining to sign the pledge also distinguishes his campaign from his main rival in the Hawkeye State, Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., who along with former Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pa., signed the vow last week.

Pawlenty joins fellow Republican candidates Mitt Romney, Jon Huntsman and Newt Gingrich in passing on the pledge. It has stirred significant controversy since its release last week, including outcry over the suggestion that African-American children had a greater chance of being born into a two-parent household during slavery than now.

But unlike the other candidates who passed on the pledge, Pawlenty supplemented the announcement of his decision with a six-and-a-half-minute web video in which the former Minnesota governor explains his commitment to his Christian faith and says "a traditional marriage between a man and a woman is a moral building block of our society." The additional release reflects the extra effort Pawlenty is taking to not alienate evangelical Christian voters, who wield considerable influence in the Iowa Caucuses.

In a statement, the former Minnesota governor emphasized his opposition to same-sex marriage, the main focus of the pledge.

"I fully support traditional marriage. Unequivocally," Pawlenty said. "The traditional family faces enormous challenges in America, and if elected I would vigorously oppose any effort to redefine marriage as anything other than between one man and one woman."

It's summer. During an off-year. And much of the political focus remains on the presidential contest. While Senate campaigning will slow as we head into the dog days, there are a few important questions that, by summer's end, might have answers. Here are five questions we are watching as we try to stake out a spot in the shade during the next two months:

5) How will Cruz/Leppert respond to Dewhurst? With Texas Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst widely expected to enter the Texas Senate race (the Texas Tribune reports that Dewhurst is expected to announce his plans next week), former state Solicitor General Ted Cruz and former Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert will be forced to confront a well-funded, well-known Republican who would assume the mantle of instant frontrunner.

Thus far, Cruz has done an impressive job of consolidating conservative support, lining up support for the Club for Growth, FreedomWorks and RedState.com's Erick Erickson. Dewhurst has lots of support with the establishment, so the question for Cruz in the near future is whether he can set up a marquee showdown a la Crist/Rubio or Paul/Grayson, or whether he will fade as Dewhurst steps into the spotlight.

But don't write off Leppert, who has money, and has shown a desire to shore up his conservative chops -- he was one of the few GOP challengers who said he would vote for Rep. Paul Ryan's budget plan as it was introduced in the Senate earlier this year. Navigating a three-way race with both Cruz and Dewhurst will be a big early test for Leppert's campaign.

4) Will Aloha mean hello, or goodbye for Lingle and Hanabusa? Former Gov. Linda Lingle is the strongest potential GOP candidate to run for retiring-Democratic Sen. Daniel Akaka's seat. Lingle has said she will make a decision by August, and if she doesn't run, GOP odds of competing -- already long, considering the state's Democratic tilt -- will be diminished.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. President Obama posts a big fundraising quarter, and so does Josh Mandel in Ohio. Meanwhile, George Allen's number is less than half of what Kaine raised in the second quarter. And Democrats prevail in CA-36 and Wisconsin elections. Here's today's rundown:

9) Quite the collection: A presidential historian and author was arrested with a colleague on Saturday in Baltimore on charges of stealing historical documents from the Maryland Historical Society, including ones signed by Abraham Lincoln, the New York Times reports. The man, who is a collector of presidential memorabilia, has a website that says his collection includes a million items, "including 26,000 presidential menus and invitations and the original key to the White House," and shows photographs of him with Alec Baldwin, Morgan Freeman and Martha Stewart, each holding a copy of his book, the Times notes.

8) Ohio Treasurer Josh Mandel will report raising $2.34 million during the second quarter, a very impressive figure that tops what Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, raised in the quarter ($1.5 million) by over $800,000. Mandel's second quarter total is also the highest of any Senate challenger in the country so far. Brown had $3.5 million in the bank at the end of the second quarter. Mandel's campaign did not release his cash on hand figure.

7) Former Sen. George Allen, R-Va., raised $1.1 million in the second quarter, a figure that is less than half of the amount former Democratic National Committee Chairman Tim Kaine raised during the period ($2.25 million). The cash on hand race is closer, with Allen finishing the period with $1.65 million in the bank and Kaine's campaign will report about $1.8 million. Meanwhile, Republican Jamie Radtke, running to the right of Allen, said Tuesday that she had raised about $100,000 in the second quarter.

6) National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman John Cornyn has sent a memo to GOP Senate candidates advising them of how to best ward off criticism related to the debt ceiling, The Hill reports.

Jon Stewart, on President Obama telling Congress to eat their peas: "We are like children. That is why yesterday, once again, Dad [Obama] much to his chagrin had to come home early from work and give us a talking to about not cleaning our budget."

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 1:49, Stephen Colbert boards the Herman Cain train.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump!

President Obama's campaign will report raising a staggering $47 million in the past three months, his campaign manager said in a web video released early Wednesday morning.

That amount dwarfs the money raised in the last three months by the entire Republican field, underscoring just how great an advantage the incumbent will have over the eventual GOP nominee. Obama's haul is well over twice as much as the $18 million the leading Republican, Mitt Romney, managed to pull in.

But, campaign manager Jim Messina warned, while Obama's early success looks like he can swamp the Republican field, another shadowy player waits. Recent court decisions have allowed vast amounts of money to flow into politics, and outside organizations stand ready to spend millions on behalf of whomever the Republican nominee may be.

"GOP outside spending for 2012 could be as much as $500 million, but these groups don't report anything. We're not allowed to see any of those numbers," Messina said. "This is a whole new ballgame, like we've never faced before."

In the video emailed to supporters, Messina said Obama for America will report the contributions came from more than 552,000 donors. Those contributors gave an average of just $69 -- a far lower number than the 2008 campaign and an indication that the fundraising well is deep. Overall, 98 percent of contributions to the campaign were below the $250 threshold.

The Democratic National Committee will report having raised an additional $38 million in the last three months. The two committees may raise money jointly through the Obama Victory Fund, an entity that allows donors to write checks for up to $35,800. That money is divided, with the first $5,000 of any contribution going to Obama's campaign and the rest going to the DNC (The DNC must report their fundraising totals every month, meaning the committee will report raising about $14 million in June when they file their own reports).

Obama's campaign has already opened 60 field offices around the country, Messina said, and the campaign has conducted almost 650 initial organizing sessions in every state that will matter in the 2012 campaign. The campaign will flex its organizing muscle this Saturday, Messina said, with their latest day of organizing.

Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., has supplanted other hopefuls as the strongest opponent to former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in the race for the Republican presidential nomination, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll released early Wednesday.

Romney leads Bachmann, 25 percent to 14 percent. They are followed by two potential candidates who have not yet declared whether they will run: former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (12 percent) and Texas Gov. Rick Perry (10 percent).

Romney's share of the vote is exactly identical to the previous Quinnipiac poll, in early June. But Bachmann has jumped eight points -- from six percent -- to take over second place.

"Perhaps more than any of the other GOP contenders, Bachmann's fortunes may depend on whether ... Palin or Perry get into the race," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "All three of them are likely to appeal to the GOP's Tea Party constituency."

Palin has slipped slightly, down from 15 percent in June. Perry was not previously tested.

All six Democrats defeated GOP "protest candidates" during Tuesday's primaries to advance to August 9 match-ups against Republican state senators during the first leg of Wisconsin's historic slate of state Senate recall elections on Tuesday.

Republicans ran protest candidates against Democratic challengers in the hopes of buying more time for the GOP incumbents facing recalls. Initially, the final recall elections for Republican incumbents were scheduled for July 12, but once Republicans triggered Democratic primaries with protest candidates, the final elections were pushed back a month to August 9.

The closest race on Tuesday was in the 10th District, where Democrat Shelly Moore defeated her opponent Isaac Weix 54 percent to 46 percent, with 97 percent of precincts counted, according to results from the AP. With nearly all precincts counted, all of the other races were decided by at least 25 points.

The next recall elections will be held in the state July 19. On that day, two GOP primaries will be held in districts where Democrats face recall elections for leaving the state for Illinois during the budget repair bill legislative process earlier this year. A third Democrat -- state Sen. Dave Hansen -- who is also facing a recall election for the same reason will face his final election that day, because only one Republican qualified to challenge him. On August 16, Democratic incumbents in Districts 12 and 22 will face their final recall elections of the year.

Republicans hold a 19-14 advantage in the state Senate, so Democrats will need to net three seats during the recalls to take control of the chamber.

Democrat Janice Hahn prevailed in a bitter special election in California's 36th District on Tuesday, besting Republican Craig Huey by 9 points.

With all precincts reporting, Hahn received 54.5 percent of the vote to Huey's 45.4 percent.

The Los Angeles City Councilwoman will succeed former Rep. Jane Harman, D-Calif., who resigned earlier this year to head the Woodrow Wilson Center.

The runoff contest between Hahn and Huey, a wealthy businessman, had taken a sharp negative turn in the race's final weeks as the race appeared to tighten between the two, despite the Los Angeles-area district's double-digit Democratic registration advantage. Democrats were worried low turnout would make the contest close.

While Hahn's 9-point margin of victory was far under the district's nearly 18-point Democratic registration advantage, her get out the vote efforts - aided in the final days by a robocall from former President Bill Clinton and phonebanks organized by Obama for America - likely made a difference down the stretch.

Turnout, meanwhile, was up nearly 13,000 votes - in the May primary, there were just over 63,000 votes were cast, but tonight over 76,000 ballots were cast

In a statement, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Steve Israel called Hahn "a champion for California families and seniors and House Democrats look forward to welcoming her to Congress."

"Hahn's victory is a tribute to her leadership, her experience, and her commitment to the families, workers, and small business owners," House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi said in a statement. " And she will join her Democratic colleagues as a powerful advocate for the American people: fighting to protect Medicare, working to foster innovation and invest in clean energy, strengthening our middle class, and advocating on behalf of Americans' number one priority - creating jobs."

"Janice's win isn't just a victory for Democrats; it is a victory for everyone who believes that campaigns should be won or lost on the issues, not as a result of which candidate makes the most outrageous videos or audacious claims," said Democratic National Committee Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz.

After the results, Republicans were quick to seize on some of the problems that had plagued Hahn's campaign.

"Janice Hahn is now Nancy Pelosi's problem," said National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman Paul Lindsay. "Between her pattern of unethical behavior and close ties to LA's most dangerous gang members, Hahn is adding to the pollution in the swamp of Washington corruption built by Nancy Pelosi's Democrats."

Updated at 4:36 p.m.

A roundup of Tuesday's noteworthy fundraising numbers, which featured a number of Democratic Senate candidates with impressive hauls:

Senate Races:

They're Shelling Out: Rep. Shelley Berkley, D-Nev., reported raising more than $1.2 million for her Senate campaign during the second quarter, with nearly $2.5 million in the bank as of June 30. Berkley's opponent, Sen. Dean Heller, R-Nev., raised $672,000 to Berkley's $695,000 during the previous quarter. Heller raised $1.05 million during the 2nd quarter has $2.3 million in the bank, reports Jon Ralston, numbers comparable to Berkley. But expectations are higher for Heller this quarter, since he has been appointed as a senator.

Meanwhile, Berkley may need to spend some of her money dealing with a primary challenge from businessman Byron Georgiou, who put another $500,000 of his own money into the campaign during the second quarter. He raised just 140,000 during the period, but has shown a continued willingness to self-finance and has $1.5 million cash on hand.

Passing The Test: Sen. Jon Tester, D-Mont., took in $1.2 million as well, leaving him with $2.3 million at the end of the quarter. Tester's opponent, Rep. Denny Rehberg, R-Mont., raised about half what Tester did during the last quarter. With Rehberg's campaign framing the race as a contest between two incumbents rather than an incumbent facing a challenger, it'll be interesting to see if he can keep pace on the fundraising front this quarter.

Full Nelson: Sen. Bill Nelson, D-Fla., announced raising $1.85 million for his re-election, for over $6 million in the bank. The men vying for the chance to challenge him have been raising money aggressively too -- with ex-Sen. George LeMieux, R-Fla., leading the pack with $950,000 raised during the quarter, but they'll need the money to get through a bruising primary while Nelson is amassing a substantial warchest.

Debbie Upper: According to a copy of the her FEC report, Sen. Debbie Stabenow, D-Mich., raised $1.5 million and has $4.1 million cash on hand. Stabenow is in good shape -- while Michigan Republicans insist she's vulnerable, a number of possible candidates have already passed on the race.

Mountain (State) Of Money: Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., raised $516,000 in the 2nd quarter and had $1.3 million in campaign cash. While he's ultimately expected to face a competitive race, he also has no challenger yet.

Money In The House: Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, D-R.I., has more than $2.2 million in the bank, and raised over $780,000 during the second fundraising quarter. While he is being challenged by Republican Barry Hinckley, he is thought to be in solid shape for re-election, and Hinckley raised just 100,000 during the first quarter of the year.

The (Menendez) Situation: Sen. Bob Menendez, D-N.J., raised $2 million over the past three months, leaving him with $5.5 million at the end of June. Menendez caught a break recently when Republican businessman John Crowley, who had been considered a strong potential contender, decided against a bid.

Check out the House race rundown after the jump.

As voters are already at the polls in today's contentious special election in California's 36th District, Democrat Janice Hahn's campaign is claiming Republican Craig Huey is trying to suppress voter turnout.

In a letter sent to the U.S. Department of Justice, the California Attorney General and the Los Angeles County District Attorney, Hahn's campaign says Huey supporters made calls throughout the district saying the election, at the request of Hahn, had been rescheduled for Wednesday, July 13, and had also given out incorrect polling locations.

According to the letter sent to authorities, one caller received a phone call yesterday, where someone said, "Called to let you know that the election has been moved to Wednesday, per Janice Hahn's request. Thanks, bye."

"Throughout the day, the campaign received other reports that this problem was more widespread," Hahn attorney Stephen Kaufman wrote in the letter.

"The penalties for election tampering are extremely severe, and we will make sure the perpetrators of these outrages are prosecuted to the full extent of the law," Kaufman said in a statement.

Huey's campaign has not yet responded to a request for comment on the allegations.

MILFORD, Mich., -- Rep. Thaddeus McCotter, R-Mich., launched his presidential campaign less than two weeks ago, but he's already carving out a role in the growing Republican field as someone unafraid to assume the role of attack dog. In a contest marked by candidates' reluctance to criticize their fellow Republicans, McCotter makes no apology for condemning what he views as a flawed field of candidates.

"Thank God we have a First Amendment," McCotter told Hotline On Call during an interview near his Metro Detroit offices.

In sharp contrast to some Republican candidates who have proven hesitant to engage in internecine political warfare, McCotter was on the attack before entering the race. When former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney made a campaign swing last month through Detroit -- where McCotter and Romney were born 18 years apart -- McCotter raised eyebrows by slamming the Republican front-runner. "Motor City hospitality dictates a Michigan message to Mitt that our struggling families, entrepreneurs and workers think Mr. Romney and Mr. Obama are not rivals, they're running mates," McCotter said at the time, offering a blunt preview of his combative campaign style.

Make no mistake; McCotter is a loyal Republican, and swears he'll vote for whomever his party nominates to challenge President Obama in 2012. But unlike some of his GOP rivals who have invoked "Reagan's 11th commandment" in refraining from attacks on their fellow Republicans, McCotter said intra-party contests are designed to draw contrasts.

Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, a candidate for the GOP presidential nomination, won't run for re-election to the House in 2012, he told the Brazoria County Facts Tuesday.

"I felt it was better that I concentrate on one election," he said. "It's about that time when I should change tactics."

Paul said he wanted to make his announcement early enough to allow others to file for his seat -- one that actually becomes less Republican in proposed Texas redistricting maps, drawn by Lone Star State Republicans who haven't ever been a fan of the libertarian congressman. Under the plan, his district would go from an R+18 district to an R+9 district, and the percentage that voted for Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., in the 2008 presidential election actually drops 9 points. Still, it should be a safe Republican seat, but Paul has faced primary challengers in the past.

"I didn't want to hold off until in December," Paul told the Facts. "I thought it shouldn't be any later than now...The people in the area have supported me for many years."

Brazoria County GOP Chair Yvonne Dewey told the Facts said she was surprised by Paul's announcement, and that the contest would be sure to attract several interested contenders.

"I'm surprised," said Dewey "He has won very handily in the last few elections. He's hung in there all these years."

The Wisconsin recall elections officially kick off today with Democratic primaries in six districts that Republicans hold. But it's just the start of a historic summer election season in the Badger State that is slated to stretch all the way until mid-August.

Republicans hold a 19-14 edge in the Senate, so Democrats need to net three seats to take control of the chamber. Six Republicans and three Democrats are facing recall elections, in a state where just two state lawmakers have ever been removed from office in this manner. Here's a calendar of the four important election dates, and what to look for on each one:

July 12:

Democratic primaries will be held in Districts 2, 8, 10, 14, 18 and 32, all Republican-held seats. Initially, the recall elections in these districts were slated for July 12, but because Republicans recruited protest candidates to run under the Democratic party banner, those elections have been pushed back a month.

"The protest candidacies will give the Republican Senators time to communicate with their constituents, and ensure that voters have a chance to learn about the differences between the Republican plan to grow jobs and reduce spending, and the Democrats' record of job-killing taxes and budget deficits," the state's GOP executive director Stephan Thompson said in June.

The decision to push back the recalls through primaries has been panned by Democrats, and even Republicans have had a mixed view of the tactic. Two incumbent Republicans Hotline On Call interviewed in Wisconsin - state Sens. Alberta Darling and Randy Hopper - indicated they were ready to run on July 12. And a Republican source associated with a GOP campaign in the state told On Call the decision to run the protest candidates caught them by surprise.

Wisconsin holds open primaries, so voters from both parties can participate today. While the odds of a "protest candidate" defeating the actual Democrats are slim, today's races still represent one extra hurdle Democratic challengers have to go through. The day will also serve as an early test of turnout - the biggest variable candidates and strategists in both parties are uncertain about. It's also the first election affected by the state's new Republican-backed voter ID law.

The Wisconsin Government Accountability Board has the full list of the candidates involved in today's elections. Polls will be open from 7 a.m. until 8 p.m. local time (8 a.m. until 9 p.m. ET).

July 19:

In Districts 12, 22, and 30, Democrats face recall elections of their own. In Districts 12 and 22, GOP primaries are currently slated to take place on the 19th, with the final elections set for four weeks later.

But in District 30, represented by Democratic state Sen. Dave Hansen, one GOP challenger was disqualified in late June so Hansen is slated to face his challenger in a final election that day.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Voters head to the polls in Wisconsin and California today while the RGA goes up on TV in Kentucky. A Democrat wants to "put a shot across Obama's bow," and have Democrats found their man to run for Donnelly's seat? Here's today's rundown:

9) "I want to put a shot across Obama's bow." No, that's not a quote from a Republican, but rather a Democrat, former NYC Mayor Ed Koch, who urged voters to make "history" by voting for the Republican candidate in the special election to replace Rep. Anthony Weiner, D-N.Y., as a protest against the White House's policy on Israel. The New York Post has the story.

8) The Republican Governors Association has launched a television ad in Kentucky that decries that the current direction of the state and touts Republican nominee David Williams. "David Williams' plan - support small business to create new jobs. Fight Obama's job killing policies," the narrator of the spot says.

Williams is an underdog in his race against Democratic Gov. Steve Beshear, who has sported a sizable lead in recent polling and is also leading the money chase.

7) According to the latest Granite State poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire survey center, GOP Reps. Frank Guinta and Charlie Bass aren't popular in their districts. In the 1st District, only 24 percent of adults have a favorable opinion of Guinta, while 30 percent have an unfavorable view. For Bass, the numbers are even worse: 28 percent have a favorable view of the 2nd District congressman while 39 percent have an unfavorable opinion. Bass' net favorability is up from April but down from February.

And Bass also has to worry about the competition: Democratic challenger Ann McLane Kuster continued an impressive fundraising pace in the second quarter, outraising Bass during the period.

New Hampshire adults, meanwhile, continue to have favorable opinions of Sens. Kelly Ayotte, R-N.H., and Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H. It's also worth noting that the poll carries a high margin of error (over +/- 6.0 percent) and the sample size is relatively small.

Jon Stewart feels better about the media in America after learning about the News of the World phone hacking scandal.

Stephen Colbert, on what his Super PAC and the most recent "Transformers" movie have in common, "I can also rake in millions of dollars for no apparent reason."

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 1:15, Republicans and Democrats can't come to an agreement on the debt ceiling.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump!

A roundup of the latest noteworthy second quarter fundraising numbers from Monday and the weekend:

Senate Races:

Sending A Claire Statement: Sen. Claire McCaskill, D-Mo., raised nearly $1.4 million during the second quarter, ending with solid amount in the bank -- almost $3 million cash on hand, the AP reports. McCaskill's Republican opponents have not released their figures yet.

By George: Former Sen. George LeMieux, R-Fla., outraised state Senate President Mike Haridopolos and former state House Majority Leader Adam Hasner during the second quarter in the Sunshine State's GOP Senate race, bringing in $950,000. His haul is a reminder that despite LeMieux's problematic ties to his longtime boss, former Gov. Charlie Crist, he will be a financial force in the race -- thanks mainly to his connections from his time with Crist and his brief stint in the Senate.

What About Bob? Sen. Bob Corker, R-Tenn., brought in an impressive $2.6 million in the second quarter and has a $5.3 million cash on hand -- especially notable considering Corker has not drawn any opponents.

Shining In the Southwest Sun -- Rep. Jeff Flake, R-Ariz., who has yet to draw any major GOP or Democratic competition continued his impressive fundraising pace, raising $800,000 in the second quarter, and ending the period with a healthy $2 million in the bank.

House Races:

I'll Show You The Power Of Incumbency: Rep. Tom Latham, R-Iowa, is indeed readying for his showdown with Rep. Leonard Boswell thanks to the Hawkeye State's redistricting - with the Republican incumbent announcing he's raised more than $580,000 this past quarter. He'll have to reintroduce himself to voters in the southwest district, most of which Boswell had before. Boswell hasn't released his numbers yet, but he'll need to do markedly better than the first quarter of the year, when he only pulled in $146,000.

Big Man On Campus: Unsurprisingly, Rep. Allen West, R-Fla., has posted the best House quarter of anyone yet -- announcing today he raised over $1.5 million in the past three months from over 23,500 individual contributors.

The firebrand conservative freshman is sure to have one of the most competitive reelection battles and will need the cash. Last week, one of his Democratic challengers, businessman Patrick Murphy, announced he'd raised $450,000 in the same time frame.

On The Map: Democrat Brad Schneider announced he's raised $321,000 for his challenge against freshman Rep. Bob Dold, R-Ill., whose reelection gets more difficult if the Illinois redistricting maps are upheld in court.

Former Rep. Alan Grayson, D-Fla. , will seek to return to Congress in 2012, he told Orlando TV station WFTV on Monday.

The outspoken, liberal Democrat had remained very much in the public eye since losing by nearly 18 points last year to Rep. Dan Webster, R-Fla. A frequent guest on cable news shows, Grayson had continued to be very vocal against national Republicans in emails to his supporters. He never shuttered his fundraising committee, and despite never actively asking for cash, managed to outraise Webster in the first quarter of the year. Before the close of the second quarter, though, Grayson did send out a fundraising appeal.

Grayson said he's raised almost $100,000 before his announcement Monday. "We need somebody who's gonna stick up for what's right. Somebody with guts," Grayson told WFTV. "What went wrong with my campaign, and Democratic campaigns all over the country, is that Democrats didn't vote."

With Florida redistricting, Grayson could be running again in his old 8th District seat, or there's the possibility of a new seat that could be centered in Orlando.

Grayson joins a growing list of defeated former members from last cycle who are hoping 2012 could be a more favorable year for a comeback. Bill Foster, D-Ill., Ann Kirkpatrick, D-Ariz., Ciro Rodriguez, D-Texas, and Carol Shea-Porter, D-N.H., have already filed for another run, while several others are still considering rematches.

Updated at 6:33 p.m.

The special election to replace former Rep. Jane Harman, D-Calif., who resigned earlier this year to head the Woodrow Wilson Center, wasn't supposed to be a major headache for Democrats. But now both sides concede the increasingly bitter runoff contest between Democrat Janice Hahn and Republican Craig Huey is closer than it should be, and Hahn and her party have been pulling out all the stops to ensure their base turns out on Tuesday.

On Monday, Hahn faced a personal tragedy when her mother, Ramona Hahn, passed away on the eve of the election at the age of 86. "On behalf of the campaign staff and thousands of loyal volunteers, we wish to extend our deepest condolences to the Hahn family," said senior Hahn adviser John Shallman. "They are in our hearts and prayers during this difficult time. We understand that Janice needs to be with her family, but the campaign will move forward--as her mother would have wanted."

Polls are open from 7 a.m. until 8 p.m. PT (10 a.m. until 11 p.m. ET) on Tuesday. Stay tuned to Hotline On Call for results and reaction. The following is a roundup of the race thus far, and what to watch for on Tuesday:

Can Lightning Strike Twice? Huey wasn't even supposed to be in this summer fight, but he pulled off an upset over Secretary of State Debra Bowen, besting the Democrat by just 709 votes to finish second in the May all-party primary.

The wealthy businessman, who has put nearly $800,000 of his own money into his campaign, was up on cable TV and radio in the primary, and had an aggressive direct mail program that raised his name identification. Meanwhile, Hahn and Bowen focused their fire on each other and conserved their advertising budgets for their expected one-on-one face-off. Huey spoiled that plan and consolidated enough conservative support to advance. Now, he's hoping to pull off a second upset over the longtime Los Angeles City councilwoman, in a district with a 17-point Democratic registration advantage.

While there was no non-partisan public polling done in the race, both sides said a week ago their internal polls showed the race was in single digits, around a 5 point margin. The Democratic firm Public Policy Polling released an automated survey, sponsored by Daily Kos and the SEIU on Monday that showed Hahn leading by eight points, narrowly outside the poll's margin of error.

Huey's campaign has also pointed to absentee ballots as an encouraging sign for the Republican. According to the Los Angeles County Registrar's Office, as of Monday afternoon, 87,812 absentee ballots had been requested. Of those, 17,507 of those returned had been from Democratic voters and 15,759 from registered Republicans. 5,673 were from voters who declined to state party identification, and Hahn's campaign has maintained those will be firmly in her camp.

Who, Me? Worried? Hahn's campaign definitely didn't plan for a candidate like Huey to upend their political plans -- especially one whose stances on social issues seem out of step with the Los Angeles-area district. But after virtually ignoring him in the primary, Hahn's very first TV ad was an attack on Huey, calling his anti-abortion positions "extreme" and likening him to former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin.

Newt Gingrich is refusing to sign a controversial marriage pledge until the Iowa-based social conservative group behind it changes its language, a spokesman for the presidential candidate told Hotline On Call.

The former speaker of the House was in Iowa on Monday at an event hosted by the Family Leader, the influential social conservative group that designed the pledge. There, he told the organization's leader, Bob Vander Plaats, that he wants to change language in the pledge, which each GOP presidential candidate was asked to sign, before agreeing to it, according to Gingrich campaign spokesman R.C. Hammond.

"We're happy to work with you to sharpen it so people understand where we're going with it," Gingrich told Vander Plaats, according to Hammond. "It's not there yet."

The pro-marriage pledge, ostensibly about opposing same-sex marriage, had drawn criticism for also including provisions that asked female soldiers not be put in combat situations and asking presidential candidates remain faithful to their spouses. In a preamble to the 14-point vow, it also suggested that African-American children were better off during slavery, an incendiary remark the group apologized for during the weekend and subsequently removed.

Hammond declined to mention what parts of the pledge Gingrich specifically objected to, saying only that it needed "across the board" changes. The spokesman did say the marriage vow needed to be shortened.

It's a particularly awkward situation for the thrice-married former congressman because of the pledge's vow to fidelity - Gingrich's marital past is well-known and seen as a major hindrance to his presidential ambitions.

Two GOP presidential candidates, former Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pa., and Rep. Michele Bachmann , R-Minn., announced last week they would sign the pledge.

Former Sen. George LeMieux (R) raised more than $950,000 for his Senate run in the second fundraising quarter, his campaign said Monday. With the impressive total, LeMieux outpaced his two main rivals for the GOP nomination. State Senate President Mike Haridopolos brought in $900,000 for the second quarter, while former state House Majority Leader Adam Hasner raised $560,000. The LeMieux campaign did not reveal its cash on hand total.

"George is working tirelessly to build a campaign that will defeat liberal Bill Nelson and help elect our Republican ticket in the fall," LeMieux campaign manager Brian Seitchik said in a release announcing the haul. "No one in this race will outwork George LeMieux."

The solid fundraising performance gives LeMieux some early momentum in his bid to return to the Senate. It serves as a reminder that despite LeMieux's problematic ties to his longtime boss, former Gov. Charlie Crist, he will be a force to be reckoned with financially -- thanks in large part to his connections from his time with Crist and his brief stint in the Senate.

Haridopolos and Hasner both had relatively disappointing fundraising quarters. While Haridopolos still posted a hefty total, he didn't come close to matching his huge first quarter, when he raised $2.6 million. The conservative buzz surrounding Hasner's candidacy didn't translate into a robust fundraising session, but his campaign painted the underwhelming total as further evidence of Hasner's anti-establishment bona fides.

The crowded Republican field will expand Tuesday, when former Ruth's Chris Steak House CEO Craig Miller officially enters the race.

He's been dubbed by one Connecticut Democrat as the "Asian Obama." But long before he was inspiring comparisons to the president, Democratic state Rep. William Tong's political career was already taking flight. Literally.

Tong was a 15-year-old intern working on Sen. Joe Lieberman's first Senate campaign in 1988 when mother nature got involved. "There was a massive helium balloon, and we had to move the helium balloon in [a] parade. I volunteered to have it tied to me and then as we were crossing a bridge, the wind took the balloon and almost took me over the bridge," Tong recalled in an interview with Hotline On Call last week.

"He picked up the nickname balloon boy," said former Democratic State Central Committee Chair John Droney, though Tong says that while maybe some called him that, "it's not something that became a nickname."

23 years later, Tong is running to succeed the retiring Lieberman in a contest that already features an active Democratic primary. The state rep. entered the race in early May, joining a Democratic field that included both a congressman and a former statewide officeholder. Tong's candidacy will test whether there is also room in the race for a lesser-known candidate underscoring a compelling personal narrative.

President Obama was Tong's constitutional law III professor at the University of Chicago and Tong proudly notes that he was the first elected official in Connecticut to endorse Obama during the 2008 Democratic presidential primary. Beyond his personal connection to the president, Tong also references his life story, portions of which bear similarities to the president.

"Everybody owns a little piece of Barack Obama's life, and I feel that we have very similar attributes in that regard," Tong said, before noting that, among other things, he is the son of immigrants and went on to train as an attorney.

Updated at 2:14 p.m.

The conservative Club for Growth is launching a pair of television ads Tuesday warning Sens. Orrin Hatch, R-Utah, and Richard Lugar, R-Ind., not to compromise on the debt ceiling fight while criticizing the two longtime incumbents.

"With 14 trillion in debt, Lugar will soon vote on raising our debt limit even higher," the narrator of the spot running in Indiana says. "After thirty-five long years, tell Richard Lugar: no more debt."

"Hatch voted for the Wall Street bailout, and the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac bailouts," says the narrator in the Utah version.

"This ad is surprising since Senator Hatch has signed the Cut, Cap, Balance pledge, which is Club for Growth's signature debt limit priority," said Hatch spokeswoman Antonia Ferrier. "In fact just last Friday, Senator Hatch attended a big rally for Cut Cap Balance - headlined by Club for Growth Board Member Ken Blackwell - in Utah.

A source familiar with the size of the buys said that six figures are being spent on the commercial in Indiana. The Utah buy is not as large, the source said. The Club said in a release the ads will be running statewide.

Hatch is likely to get a significant primary challenge from Rep. Jason Chaffetz, who the Club is pushing into the race. Lugar, meanwhile, already faces a challenger on his right, in state Treasurer Richard Mourdock.

"We think it would be probably best if he would retire at this point," Club President Chris Chocola said of Lugar in April.

The ads also underscore the extent to which the debate over the debt ceiling is taking on an increasingly visible role in electoral politics this year. In Nevada's 2nd District special election, the debt ceiling was the subject of GOP nominee Mark Amodei's first television ad. "I'll never vote to raise Obama's debt limit and risk our independence," Amodei said in the ad.

Check out both new Club spots after the jump.

Montana businessman Neil Livingstone and state Sen. Ryan Zinke, the new Republican candidates for governor and lieutenant governor, kicked off their ticket this weekend by showing off a 38-foot RV on Sunday with their smiling faces.

So far so good. But the Billings Gazette explains what happened next:

Zinke accidentally got the big rig rolling before he could stop it, and it slowly ran into a Helena supporter's 1964 sky blue Chevrolet Camaro convertible.

The car didn't appear to suffer major damage, the paper noted. Maybe next time Livingstone will do the driving.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Pawlenty aims his sharpest criticism yet at Bachmann, while the congresswoman defends her record in a statement of her own. Meanwhile, Flake has another productive fundraising quarter in Arizona and the Florida Senate race is about to get even more crowded. Here In Washington, a deal on the debt ceiling debate still hasn't been reached, while the president gets ready to hold a press conference this morning. Here's today's rundown:

8) Bob Turner will be the GOP nominee in a Sept. 13 special election to fill former Rep. Anthony Weiner's seat in New York's 9th District. The choice by Queens and Brooklyn Republican officials avoids the possibility of a split in the GOP vote -- Turner got the Conservative Party nod on Friday, but attorney Juan Reyes, a former aide to Rudy Giuliani, had emerged as a late favorite among Queens Republicans. Turner lost to Weiner in 2010, but did receive 40 percent of the vote in the a district that tilts Democratic. State Assemblyman David Weprin was chosen last week as the Democratic nominee.

7) Wisconsin Republicans released a congressional redistricting map Friday aimed at protecting freshman Rep. Sean Duffy, R-Wis., the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.

6) Former Ruth's Chris steakhouse CEO Craig Miller plans to announce his entrance into the Florida GOP Senate contest on Tuesday, The Tampa Tribune reports. In 2010, Miller finished third out of five in a GOP primary in the state's 24th congressional district.

Bill Maher doesn't think long shot presidential candidate, Rep. Thaddeus McCotter, R-Mich., stands a chance, "I don't want to say this guy is a no name, but he actually wears his campaign button upside down so that even he can glance down and see who he is."

Today's Must See Moment - Fast forward to 00:45 to see Jay Leno's "Video Metaphor for Raising the Debt Ceiling".

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump!

What we at The Hotline learned this week:

-- One thing the upcoming Federal Election Commission filings will show is how financially non-competitive the current challengers are against Senate Democratic incumbents in states like Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Washington, and West Virginia. By no means do Republicans have to put all of these on the table, and it's hardly too late for strong challengers to emerge, but it would certainly comfort the National Republican Senatorial Committee to know that at least a couple of these races would be competitive come 2012.

On the other hand, at least the GOP is contesting several other Democratic seats, whereas Democrats don't yet have any well-funded challengers themselves in the most competitive races, with the exception of Nevada, and Massachusetts, where Alan Khazei impressed with a strong second quarter showing. But GOP Sen. Scott Brown still sports a big money lead there, and national Democrats have signaled that the current Bay State Democratic field isn't satisfactory.

-- While most of the focus in the New Mexico Senate race has so far been on the GOP side, the Democratic contest took center stage this week, and the early read is that is that the campaign could be very competitive. State Auditor Hector Balderas put up impressive fundraising numbers and landed an endorsement from former Lt. Gov. Diane Denish. But Rep. Martin Heinrich still has a cash on hand advantage, so Balderas will have to prove in future quarters that his initial report was more than a fluke.

-- Friday's jobs report ended the week on an unexpectedly sour note for the president. The number of jobs created was far less than anticipated, and unemployment ticked up to 9.2 percent. At this point, the president looks to be running for re-election in a down economy - a very tough challenge for any incumbent.

-- Tim Pawlenty had a rough week, and dialed down early expectations in the Hawkeye State, saying "this week is the first time that I've campaigned in earnest in Iowa." But in Florida, the Pawlenty campaign has made some strides. Pawlenty has rolled out a series of endorsements and has held several fundraisers there. State Reps. Will Weatherford, Chris Dorworth and Richard Corcoran are three top legislators with routes to becoming speaker of the state House. Pawlenty has also held fundraisers that included former Florida Gov. Bob Martinez and Tampa GOP financial backer Bing Kearney.

City Year co-founder Alan Khazei, one of the Democrats vying to challenge Sen. Scott Brown, R-Mass., raised $920,000 in the second quarter, which was among the best hauls any Senate challenger has reported this quarter so far. Challengers being taken very seriously, from former Florida House Majority Leader Adam Hasner to Rep. Joe Donnelly, D-Ind., took in significantly less than Khazei this quarter. But Khazei, up to this point, has been largely dismissed as a candidate by national Democrats.

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has made it clear on a few occasions over the past few months that they don't see a credible candidate in the current field. In April, DSCC Chair Patty Murray said the committee was "aggressively recruiting" in Massachusetts. And in May, she told reporters "we expect to have a good, strong candidate within weeks," in Massachusetts.

But in the wake of the new fundraising numbers, will Khazei be taken more seriously?

The Labor Department's June jobs report was released Friday, showing that the economy added just 18,000 net jobs last month. On top of that, debt ceiling negotiations seem to be at a standstill. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner will appear on NBC's "Meet the Press" and CBS' "Face the Nation" to discuss the state of the economy, what missing the debt ceiling deadline would spell out for the U.S. economy, and what President Obama and his economic team have in store to bring the unemployment rate down.

CBS will also talk with Sens. Jeff Sessions, R-Ala., and Bill Nelson, D-Fla., on what the report will mean for continued budget negotiations.

"Fox News Sunday" will also discuss the economy and debt ceiling talks with two of the Senate's leading Republicans on fiscal issues, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and Sen. Jim DeMint, R-S.C. Meanwhile, CNN's "State of the Union" turns to the House side of negotiations with leaders from both sides of the isle, Reps. Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., and Chris Van Hollen, D-Md.

NBC and CNN will speak with Republican presidential contenders. Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty will sit down with David Gregory for "Meet the Press"'s "Meet the Candidate" series, and former Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Penn., talks with Candy Crowley on "State of the Union."

Turning to an out of this world topic, Space Shuttle Atlantis lifted off for the last time on Friday and has put the future of the U.S. space exploration program in question. CNN will speak with NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center chief scientist James Garvin.

CNN will also air an hour-long special on the space mission tonight at 8pm ET, "CNN Presents: Beyond Atlantis - The Next Frontier."

ABC's "This Week with Christiane Amanpour" will host White house Chief of Staff Bill Daley to talk budget negotiations, as well as discuss the new job numbers. New International Monetary Fund Chair Christine Legarde will break down the risks involved if the US did default on its debts, and will talk restoring the IMF's image after the scandal involving former IMF head Dominique Strauss-Kahn.

Get the full listings after the jump.

Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis., knows he's at the top of target lists in 2012. The House Budget Committee Chairman is continuing to pad his coffers for his anticipated showdown with Democrat Rob Zerban.

Ryan raised nearly $900,000 in the second quarter of 2011, according to his filing with the Federal Election Commission on Friday. The cash infusion leaves him with an imposing $3.8 million in his war chest.

The majority of his fundraising --$744,000 -- appears to have come from individual donors within the Badger State. He took in $149,000 from political action committees and spent just $220,000 in the past three months.

Seeing a rare opportunity in this swing district to knock off Ryan thanks to his controversial budget proposal that would revamp Medicare, Zerban has emerged as one of Democrats' most highly touted recruits. The Kenosha County supervisor boasted last month he'll have "a big number" when his first FEC report is filed.

The total is expected to be larger than any of Ryan's previous opponents has ever raised total - but with Ryan not facing a tough challenger since he was first elected in 1998, that benchmark isn't hard to surpass.

For more on Zerban's challenge to Ryan, check out my feature from last month.

For Sen. Orrin Hatch, R-Utah, the road toward strengthening relations with disgruntled conservatives in his state has been traversed with steps forward, but at times, simultaneous paces back.

Nationally syndicated conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt endorsed Hatch Thursday, a boost for the incumbent, who is likely to face a strong primary challenge from Rep. Jason Chaffetz . But earlier this week, Sen. Jim DeMint, R-S.C., appeared to take a shot at Hatch, saying Sen. Mike Lee "has two votes; every time he votes one way, Orrin's going to vote the same way."

Hatch told the Deseret News that DeMint has repeatedly apologized for his statement and he has accepted DeMint's apology. And Hatch's campaign manager said "the votes that they cast are probably going to be the same in just about every case. I wouldn't read more into it than (that)."

Still, the comment from DeMint wasn't exactly welcome news for Hatch. And it wasn't the first week he received mixed input from conservatives.

Last month, Hatch landed an endorsement from conservative radio host Mark Levin -- only to face heat two days later from national Tea Party group FreedomWorks, who announced that Hatch would be their first 2012 incumbent Republican target.

Shoring up support among conservatives is going to be a tough climb for Hatch, but that said, he has used as much elbow grease as anyone. For now at least, has the field to himself, a situation that is likely to change later this year, if as widely expected, Chaffetz enters the race.

The U.S. economy added 18,000 jobs in June, less than one-fifth of consensus estimates. Unemployment changed slightly to 9.2 percent, the Labor Department reported.

The consensus estimate, which was upwardly revised following a strong ADP National Employment Report on Thursday, was for a net job gain around 110,000 and a slight dip in the unemployment rate to 9.0 percent. The economy added 54,000 jobs in May.

Read more at NationalJournal.com

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. A group urging Perry to make a White House bid raises six digits, while Crossroads GPS spends seven digits on a new ad campaign. Meanwhile, Pawlenty dials down expectations in the Hawkeye State while EMILY's List becomes the latest national group to hit the airwaves in Wisconsin. Here's today's rundown:

8) As observers continue to analyze the presidential candidates' second quarter fundraising reports, an outside group urging Texas Gov. Rick Perry to jump into the Republican presidential primary has raised $400,000 in three weeks, National Journal's Beth Reinhard reports. Americans for Rick Perry is expanding its fundraising operation outside of Texas to include Miami, Chicago, and Washington, D.C. The catch though -- The group can't strategize with Perry himself.

7) One part presidential candidate, one part music critic? Tim Pawlenty weighed in Thursday on Lady Gaga's music. "Well you know, in terms of the beat, I like 'Bad Romance,'" Pawlenty said. "I gotta say, even though she's a little unusual, 'Born this Way' has some appeal. She's actually very talented. Now if you go to the end of the HBO special, the Lady Gaga HBO special, and you watch her sing a cappella "Born This Way," she can sing. She can definitely sing. She's talented."

6) Meanwhile, Pawlenty is beginning to downplay his chances in Iowa, telling the Des Moines Register the reason he's lagging in the polls, is that "this week is the first time that I've campaigned in earnest in Iowa."

Vice President Joe Biden takes advantage of President Obama's first Twitter town hall, "#AskObama Have you ever planked on the Oval Office desk?"

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 0:20 to find out which 2012 GOP candidate is the biggest Lady Gaga fan.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump!

Second quarter House fundraising reports are beginning to trickle in before next Friday's deadline with the Federal Election Commission, and several challengers have posted impressive totals so far - with one Democratic challenger even outraising a Republican incumbent.

Thursday's highlights:

New Hampshire's 2nd District: Democrat Ann McLane Kuster, who lost narrowly to Rep. Charlie Bass, R-N.H., in 2010, a bad year for her party, is making another try next year. Kuster announced she raised over $365,000 in the past quarter. Bass, meanwhile,
wrote to supporters he raised $303,000 in the same time frame, saying it was "far and away our best fundraising quarter in the last two years."

Florida's 22nd District: Businessman Patrick Murphy announced he's raised $450,000 in the last three months. The Democratic hopeful announced his bid just three weeks before the last fundraising deadline - but still brought in $350,000 in that abbreviated time period. His GOP opponent, Rep. Allen West, R-Fla., always brings in an eye-popping haul though, so he'll need the cash, not just against the tea party favorite, but also a Democratic competitor, former West Palm Beach Mayor Lois Frankel. She hasn't released her latest numbers but she posted very strong $254,000 for the first quarter.

Washington state's new District: Democrat Denny Heck lost to now-Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler in the open seat in the state's 3rd District in 2010, but for 2012 he's keeping his options open, and could likely run in Washington's new 10th District that has yet to be created in redistricting. Whichever path he chooses, he's keeping his war chest afloat - raising $230,000 in the second quarter. He has also transferred $40,000 from his previous campaign account to leave him with a quarter-million dollars in cash on hand.

Updated at 11:11 a.m. on 7/8, with the news that Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., signed the pledge.

Signing a pledge adamantly opposing same-sex marriage, as Republican presidential candidates were asked to do Thursday by an influential Iowa-based social conservative group, was sure to court controversy. But even a socially conservative Republican might think twice about signing one issued by the conservative group Family Leader after reading the fine print.

Included in the sweeping pledge, and in a supporting document that offers rationales for it, are provisions that:

• Ask candidates to oppose the placement of female soldiers in combat situations;
• Contend that, by one metric, African-American families are worse off than during slavery, and
• Dispute that genetics determine sexuality.

The document is replete with issues that many candidates -- and many voters for that matter -- would rather not focus on while the economy falters. Signing the pledge could force presidential hopefuls to take unpopular stands on cultural issues. But avoiding the pledge could also mean angering the still-important bloc of social conservatives in Iowa.

"I really think if they don't sign it, they're going to have explain why not," said Bob Vander Plaats of Family Leader, an influential evangelical leader in Iowa who served as state director for former Gov. Mike Huckabee, who won the Iowa GOP caucuses in 2008. "What did you find objectionable that would say you won't sign marriage vow family pledge?"

In asking candidates oppose combat roles for women, the document urges "prompt termination of military policymakers who would expose American wives and daughters to rape or sexual harassment, torture, enslavement, or sexual leveraging by enemy in forward combat roles."

Ahead of next Tuesday's special election in California's 36th District, both sides are scrambling in the race to replace former Rep. Jane Harman, D-Calif., in what wasn't even supposed to be a close contest. On Thursday, Democrat Janice Hahn and Republican Craig Huey met for their first - and only - debate. Republicans are pointing to a local TV report that refocuses Hahn's relationship with a controversial gang intervention program as a development they believe could upend the race in the final days. Democrats, meanwhile, say another outside ad proves Huey's campaign is trying to suppress women voters. National Journal Daily subscribers can read more the race, including interviews with both candidates here.

Here's the rundown from a spirited day:

-- At their debate on KPCC radio, both mostly toed the party line - but the negative turn the campaign's taken on also played a prominent role in their exchange.

Huey again denounced a controversial web ad that roiled the campaign, saying Turn Right PAC's video depicting strippers and gangsters was "racist, it's sexist, it's bigoted," and again emphasized his campaign had no involvement with the spot and said he would have fired anyone who did. "Everyone was shocked and horrified when that thing came out," Huey added.

But Huey said the ad's been helping Hahn's campaign. "If it had not been for Janice Hahn using it as a fundraising tool," Huey said of the video, it would not have become such a scandal. "She drove hundreds of thousands to view it nationwide."

Huey also pushed back against a Hahn ad claiming a marketing client of Huey's company falsely hawked a nutritional supplement to seniors as a cure for Alzheimer's disease. Huey interrupted, "Janice, that's not true...tell the truth."

On the deficit and the economy, Hahn said, "We both want to cut spending, I just think it shouldn't be on the backs of seniors, or those who are most vulnerable in society."

Huey came out against raising the debt ceiling, and even said Ronald Reagan "was wrong" to raise the ceiling in the 1980s. He declared himself in favor of a balanced budget amendment, or the dollar cut-per dollar raised framework put forth in the debt-ceiling talks.

-- Despite the new closeness of the race, Huey isn't getting much help from outside GOP groups, but the National Republican Trust PAC did go up with a radio spot this week pushing back at Hahn's ads on Huey's anti-abortion positions.

"Is that all she has? Hahn is simply reaching for an issue that divides us. Haven't we had enough of this from the political class," a female narrator says in the ad. "Let's send a message to Janice Hahn and the political establishment that we aren't falling for their divisive tricks any more.

Former Democratic National Committee Chairman Tim Kaine continues to bring back members of his 2005 gubernatorial campaign team, announcing Thursday that his former campaign manager Mike Henry will serve in the same role on his Senate team.

Henry joins at least five other members from the 2005 team helping out Kaine this time around. His senior adviser Mo Elleithee served as communications director six years ago. Kaine also promoted his former Northern Virginia finance director Jenny Nadicksbernd to be the campaign's overall finance director for 2012.

Meanwhile, Kaine re-hired pollster Peter Brodnitz of Beneson Strategy Group along with media consultants Karl Struble and David Eichenbaum of Struble Eichenbaum Communciations.

Members of Kaine's staff also have connections to Sen. Mark Warner's, D-Va. Henry, Nadicksbernd, and new media consultant Eli Kaplan of Rising Tide Interactive all worked for Warner in 2008 and Elleithee served as Warner's press secretary during his 2001 gubernatorial bid.

One hallmark of the Kaine 2012 group is that the unit, as a whole, is experienced in statewide Virginia politics, though individual members have been parts of losing campaigns. For example, in the 2009 gubernatorial race, Elleithee worked for Democratic state Sen. Creigh Deeds while Henry managed Terry McAuliffe's primary run. Kaplan also helped out McAuliffe.

Democrats have decided on state Assemblyman David Weprin as their choice to run in New York's 9th District special election to replace former Rep. Anthony Weiner, YNN's Capital Tonight reports.

Weprin will meet with Queens Democrats tonight and will file paperwork certifying him as their pick on Friday. Each party will choose their nominees for the September 13 election, as state law does not allow for primaries to be held prior.

According to Capital Tonight, Weprin was seen as the "most loyal" to the local party - headed by Rep. Joseph Crowley, D-N.Y. Other potentially strong possibilities included Assemblyman Rory Lancman, and former Rep. Elizabeth Holtzman, who recently said she'd be interested in returning to the House.

While the 9th district is seen as a prime target for redistricting -- the Empire State needs to shed two seats before 2012 -- that doesn't necessarily mean Weprin has taken an oath not to run for a full term, although waging a battle against an influential member like Crowley, who could take in most of the district, would be ill-advised. Instead, he could use the run as a springboard to citywide office, possibly city comptroller in 2013.

Updated at 1:38 p.m.

A leading religious conservative group in Iowa is asking the Republican presidential candidates to sign a pledge vowing marital fidelity and support for a same-sex marriage ban.

The Family Leader, a Christian Conservative organization headed by former gubernatorial candidate Bob Vander Plaats, (Vander Plaats helped steer Mike Huckabee's Iowa caucus win in 2008), unveiled the document during a press confernce at the Iowa State Capitol Thursday morning. Any candidate refusing to sign the pledge would be ineligible for an endorsement from the group.

"We are intentional about the opportunity to take another step in fulfilling our mission to 'Strengthen Families' by providing The Marriage Vow to presidential candidates," Vander Plaats said in a statement. "The FAMiLY LEADER views this pledge as an important component needed to inform constituents about the personal stand that each presidential candidate takes regarding marriage. We believe that the candidates' positions on core values, such as marriage, correlate directly to his/her moral stances on energy issues, sound budgeting policies, national defense, and economic policies."

Two major candidates for the GOP nomination have already signaled that Iowa will not be a major part of their overall strategy. Mitt Romney will not participate in next month's Iowa Straw Poll in Ames, while Jon Huntsman has said he is "not competing" in the Hawkeye State. Both Romney and Huntsman are Mormons who have taken moderate positions on some social issues.

The pledge could also be awkward for Newt Gingrich, who has acknowledged being unfaithful in his previous marriages.

Former Florida House Majority Leader Adam Hasner raised $560,000 for the state's Senate race during the second quarter, his campaign announced Thursday. Hasner, who announced his candidacy on April 23, finished the period with $470,000 cash on hand.

Hasner's number is well short of state Senate President Mike Haridopolos' haul, which was $900,000 for the second quarter. Haridopolos also enjoyed a strong first quarter of fundraising, raising $2.6 million.

In a statement that proudly advertised he "raised less" than his GOP rivals, Hasner cast his opponents as beholden to the party establishment, arguing that's what gave them a financial leg up.

"We always expected the two establishment opponents to start off raising more money than us, because that's what the establishment does," Hasner said.

Observers will next turn to former Sen. George LeMieux, the third major GOP candidate in the race, to see whether he can keep pace with Haridopolos. Sen. Bill Nelson, D-Fla., who finished the first quarter with over $4.5 million in the bank, has not yet released his second quarter figures.

Democratic political operatives overwhelmingly say the time has come for gay marriage, while a majority of Republicans now believe they should just avoid this issue, according to this week's National Journal Political Insiders Poll. Both positions represent significant gains for gay marriage compared to two years ago, when the same question was asked in the wake of the Iowa Supreme Court's decision legalizing same-sex marriage in the state.

After New York Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo pushed through a gay marriage law in the Empire State last month there is now very little reluctance among Democratic Insiders to see their party embrace the idea.

At the same time, less than a third of the Republican Insiders think their party should oppose gay marriage, a position that's been enshrined in the party's national platform.

Political operatives in both parties back a debt-ceiling compromise that would close business tax breaks in exchange for making significant Medicare reforms, according to this week's National Journal Political Insiders Poll. But several Insiders put caveats on their support, which makes the prospects for a deal dicey.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Changes to social security appear to be on the table in the debt negotiations between the White House and congressional leaders, a Pawlenty aide apologizes for comments he made about Bachmann, and Bachmann hits the airwaves in Iowa with her first TV ad. Meanwhile, Snowe and DeMint team up for a Wall Street Journal op-ed while a familiar face launches a congressional bid in Illinois. Here's today's rundown:

10) A WMUR-TV Granite State Poll showed former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney with a slight, four-point lead over President Obama, we wrote early Wednesday. A new release from the poll underscores Obama's challenge in the small, but historically competitive state: Obama's approval rating remains underwater for the fourth consecutive quarter. Just 46 percent of Granite Staters approve of the job Obama is doing, while 49 percent disapprove.

9) Add Karl Rove to the list of people who think Texas Gov. Rick Perry will make a White House bid.

8) Top Tim Pawlenty aide Vin Weber apologized on Wednesday after he told The Hill this about Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., "She's got hometown appeal, she's got ideological appeal, and, I hate to say it, but she's got a little sex appeal too."

"I've been a Bachmann supporter in her Congressional bids and I apologize. I was not speaking on behalf of Governor Pawlenty's campaign but nevertheless, it was inappropriate and I'm sorry," Weber said.

The flap is a distraction Pawlenty especially didn't need as he kicked off another Iowa swing Wednesday and is trying to make an impact in the very state where Bachmann has shown early strength.

Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., needs to find a new campaign theme song after musician Tom Petty demanded she stop using "American Girl" at her campaign rallies.

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 1:10 to see Democracy in action.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump!

On Tuesday, we noted the fundraising success City Year co-founder Alan Khazei enjoyed in the second quarter, dominating the otherwise anemic Massachusetts Democratic field.

A stark reminder arrived Wednesday that Sen. Scott Brown is building a very impressive war chest of his own in advance of 2012. He plans to report raising $1.98 million during the second quarter, with $9.6 million cash on hand, a hefty figure.

Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, enjoyed another productive quarter, raising $1.5 million and finishing the period with $3.5 million in the bank. Brown's likely general election opponent, state Treasurer Josh Mandel was a strong fundraiser during his 2010 treasurer's campaign, but we don't yet know what his figures as a Senate candidate look like. He filed papers to raise money but hasn't yet officially announced his campaign.

In Maine, Republican Sen. Olympia Snowe, who at the beginning of the year appeared vulnerable to a GOP primary has enjoyed a steady year so far. She raised just over $1 million during the second quarter and had more than $2.74 million cash on hand. Republican challenger Scott D'Amboise, raised just $117,000 during the period.

CNN will debut a new evening schedule this fall that won't include Eliot Spitzer's "In The Arena," the network announced Wednesday. The revamped schedule will also shuffle the broadcast times of current programming and feature a new general news program anchored by Erin Burnett, formerly of CNBC.

Spitzer's show, which currently airs at 8 p.m., is the only casualty of the revamped lienup. In February, conservative columnist Kathleen Parker left the program, which was then titled "Parker Spitzer." The move that left Spitzer to helm a revamped show.

"We engaged serious people in conversations about national and global issues in a way that was informative and challenging," Spitzer said in a statement Wednesday. "I believe that we provided diverse and valuable perspectives during the show's tenure. I thoroughly enjoyed my time at CNN."

Spitzer's statement sounds like an announcement that he is leaving CNN altogether, but CNN/ U.S. executive vice president Ken Jautz said the network is "in discussions with Eliot Spitzer about an alternative role."

Updated at 3:00 p.m.

Former New Mexico Lt. Gov. Diane Denish endorsed state Auditor Hector Balderas' Senate candidacy Wednesday afternoon.

"The Senate needs more leaders like Hector Balderas. Leaders who reject the premise that 'fiscal responsibility' and 'accountability' are Republican words," Denish said in an email to supporters. "Leaders who recognize that typical Washington, D.C. insider politics will not solve the problems that are hurting the hardworking families of New Mexico. I'm confident that leader is Hector Balderas."

Denish served as lieutenant governor for eight years before losing the gubernatorial race last year to now-Gov. Susana Martinez, a Republican. The endorsement comes after Balderas announced he raised $400,000 in the second quarter, coming close to matching the fundraising total of his Democratic primary rival, Rep. Martin Heinrich, D-N.M.

Balderas remains an underdog against Heinrich, a two-term congressman who has received backing from organized labor and whose campaign has won praise from Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee chair Patty Murray. But with at least half of the primary electorate expected to be Hispanic, Balderas' biography gives him a built-in advantage.

Balderas' biggest challenge entering the race was raising enough money and gathering enough establishment support to mount a serious campaign. With a solid fundraising quarter and a prominent New Mexico Democrat on his side, he's on the right track.

Much of the focus on fundraising this week is on the Senate campaigns and the presidential candidates, but in Montana, where one of 2012's most competitive gubernatorial races could be in the works, the money race between the two presumed early front-runners is dead even.

Former Rep. Rick Hill, who announced his intention to run for governor late last year, is the Republican front-runner, and has $197,634 in the bank, according to his most recent fundraising report, which was filed with the state Tuesday. That includes about $153,000 for the primary and $44,000 for the general election.

Democratic Attorney General Steve Bullock hasn't officially said he is running, but has $196,438 in the bank, including over $126,000 in primary money and over $70,000 is general election cash. Bullock would be the early front-runner if he jumps in, as he's viewed by many Democrats as the party's best chance to hold the seat being vacated by term-limited Gov. Brian Schweitzer. The two other Democrats in the race are state Sens. Larry Jent and Dave Wanzenried.

The Cook Report rates the race as a "toss-up," along with contests in Missouri and North Carolina.

The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee's Wisconsin PAC is taking to the airwaves today with a with their first candidate-specific television ad during the recall campaign, a spot aimed at protecting one of the three Democrats facing a recall election in the Badger State this summer.

"What's most troubling about David VanderLeest's record are the accusations of domestic abuse," says the narrator of the ad. VanderLeest is challenging Democratic state Sen. Dave Hansen in the 30th District, which includes Green Bay. He has faced legal problems in the past including convictions of two misdemeanor disorderly conduct charges.

Smart Media Group, who tracks buys, pegged the DLCC buy at $25,000 in the Green Bay market for the next week. The DLCC, which works to help Democratic state legislative candidates, also ran what they say was technically an issue ad on the recalls in March.

The DLCC ad lays bare the extent to which national groups will involve themselves in what promise to be expensive recall races. Already, Club for Growth Wisconsin has hit the airwaves, and on the left, liberal groups Democracy For America and the Progressive Change Campaign Committee are planning on spending a combined six digits on ads.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Mitt Romney raised over $18 million during the second quarter while Newt Gingrich has over a million dollars in debt. Plus, an early GOP front-runner passes on the chance to run for Weiner's seat and the DCCC targets six Members with robocalls. Here's today's rundown:

8) An GOP front-runner in special election New York's 9th District is taking a pass, despite getting the high-profile backing of former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani. NYC Councilman Eric Ulrich won't run for for the seat vacated by former Rep. Anthony Weiner. "It's not because I don't think that a Republican can win it. It's certainly not because I think I wouldn't be good at it. But it's a unique opportunity. It was a good opportunity. I don't think it's going to be my only opportunity," Ulrich told NY1.

The special election to fill the seat is slated for Sept. 13, and party leaders will choose their respective candidates for the race. The seat is a prime target for elimination, though, in redistricting. For Democrats, former Rep. Elizabeth Holtzman confirmed Tuesday she's definitely interested in getting her party's nomination.

7) Did National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Pete Sessions dye his hair? You be the judge.

9:28 a.m. CORRECTION: The previous version of this post incorrectly cited the month of the previous general election poll. The poll was released in late April.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney remains the frontrunner in the first-in-the-nation New Hampshire Republican presidential primary, with Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., leaping into second place, according to a new WMUR-TV Granite State Poll released late Tuesday.

Romney leads the poll of 357 likely Republican primary voters, conducted June 21-July 1 by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, with 35 percent, down slightly from 41 percent in a UNH poll in early June conducted for the Boston Globe. Romney has hovered between 32 percent and 41 percent in UNH polling since the Spring of 2010.

Bachmann is second at 12 percent, a jump of eight points from the Globe poll last month. Rep. Ron Paul, R-Tex., and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani tie for third at seven percent. In his debut in the UNH poll, Texas Gov. Rick Perry is at four percent.

Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin earn just three percent, with businessman Herman Cain and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman at only two percent. Other candidates are at one percent or fewer, and 19 percent of voters are undecided.

Bachmann's jump of eight points was the largest gain for any single candidate. Not including Perry, who had not appeared in previous surveys, Bachmann was the only candidate to increase his or her vote share more than one point since the early June Globe survey. In fact, most candidates saw their share of the vote drop, as the percentage of voters who said they were undecided increased from 13 percent early last month.

It's Republican Mark Amodei vs. Democrat Kate Marshall in Nevada's 2nd District special election - officially.

The state Supreme Court has upheld a lower court ruling that allows each party to choose their nominee in the September 13 special election, overturning Democratic Secretary of State Ross Miller's preference for a "ballot royale," or all party free-for all, to choose a replacement for now-Sen. Dean Heller, R-Nev.

The decision is a boost for Amodei in the GOP-leaning district and means that Republican Kirk Lippold, a former USS Cole Commander, won't be in the mix, as he has vowed not to run as an independent candidate. Republicans will now avoid a split in the conservative vote that could have helped Marshall. Amodei, the former state GOP chairman, was the overwhelming pick of the state party's central committee last month, but Lippold had said he would still run if the multi-candidate election was reinstated. Marshall, the state Treasurer, was unopposed for the Democratic nod.

The high court heard arguments last week in the case, and their 6-1 decision comes the day before Miller had to finalize the ballot. In its decision, the court agreed that the state's special election law was ambiguous, but that if the state legislature had wanted elections to be held in an all-party fashion, it would have been written so. Without such clarity, the court deferred to other statues allowing parties to choose their candidates.

6:13 p.m. CORRECTION: The original version of this post contained an incorrect second quarter fundraising figure for Kaine. He raised $2.25 million.

Senate fundraising numbers are just beginning to trickle in, but already we're seeing a pattern of some clear winners and those who didn't fare quite as well.

In the winners category, former Democratic National Committee Chairman Tim Kaine clearly stands out, with his $2.25 million haul. It's likely to be one of the top fundraising figures of the quarter. Former Sen. George Allen, R-Va., hasn't yet released his latest numbers; he raised $1.5 million in the first quarter.

In New Mexico, state Auditor Hector Balderas made his mark on the Democratic race, raising over $400,000 in the first quarter, nearly matching the $485,000 that Rep. Martin Heinrich, D-N.M. brought in. Balderas' ability to fundraise was one of the biggest question marks on his campaign - that's not the case any longer. And Heinrich's near half-million haul is a little underwhelming, given that he's a sitting member of Congress with the fundraising perks that position entails. With Hispanics making up a majority of the state's Democratic electorate, Balderas looks like he's putting together a very credible campaign.

In Massachusetts, City Year co-founder Alan Khazei easily outdistanced the fundraising totals of his Democratic rivals (activist Bob Massie and Newton Mayor Setti Warren just over 200,000 combined during the same period), bringing in over $920,000. Unless someone else jumps in the race (Consumer Financial Protection Bureau special adviser Elizabeth Warren?), he looks like he'll be the Democrat most mentioned as a credible challenger to Sen. Scott Brown, R-Mass.

And in the Keystone State, Sen. Bob Casey, D-Pa., raised $1.3 million in the second quarter and has $3.1 million in the bank: solid figures, especially considering the number of Republicans shying away from a Casey challenge.

Tim Pawlenty's newest senior political adviser has cultivated a reputation as a sharp political mind and well-regarded operative. But it's her name makes her even more recognizable.

Sarah Huckabee Sanders, daughter of former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, has joined the Pawlenty's team in Iowa, where her father found surprise success in 2008. She was her father's political director for his presidential campaign.

"I'm delighted to join the Governor and First Lady in Iowa, which holds a special place in my heart," said Sanders. "It's clear to me that Gov. Pawlenty has what it takes to unite the party, unite the country and beat President Obama."

The personnel move comes as Pawlenty continues to place a heavy focus on the first-in-the-nation caucus state. On Monday, he went up with his second television ad in the state and is making stops in Iowa on Wednesday and Thursday.

A majority of Americans believes it is essential that the U.S. "continue to be a world leader in space exploration," according to a new poll released Tuesday by the Pew Research Center.

Fifty-eight percent of Americans believe that leading the way in space exploration is essential for the U.S., while 38 percent do not.

A majority -- 55 percent -- also thinks the space shuttle program, which is scheduled to come to an end this month, has been a good investment for the country. Just 36 percent believe the program hasn't been a good investment.

In June 1986, less than six months removed from the loss of Space Shuttle Challenger, 70 percent told pollsters for NBC News and the Wall Street Journal that the program was a good investment; only a quarter thought it wasn't a good investment.

Space Shuttle Atlantis is scheduled to embark on the final shuttle mission on Friday.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Second quarter Senate race fundraising numbers are starting to trickle in, and so far, Democrats in New Mexico and Virginia are impressing, while Bay State Democrats are not. Meanwhile, TPaw is up with a new ad in Iowa and Huntsman and Romney bump into each other in New Hampshire. Here's today's rundown:

8) Sen. Jim DeMint's, R-S.C., book, The Great American Awakening: Two Years that Changed America, Washington & Me, has been released.

7) The Detroit Free-Press takes a closer look this morning at Warren Mayor Jim Fouts, a polarizing figure who embraces being different. An entire wall in his office is devoted to Frank Sinatra, and if you call the city and have to go on hold, you'll hear Old Blue Eyes while you wait.

6) At a Fourth of July parade in New Hampshire, Jon Huntsman and Mitt Romney crossed paths for the first time since Huntsman entered the race.

5) The Republican Governors Association raised an impressive $22.1 million during the first half of the year, more than the association raised during all of 2007 and about $10 million more that the amount raised by June 30 in 2009. The RGA has $16.2 million cash on hand, which is double what the group had in the bank at the same point in 2007.

What we learned at The Hotline this week:

-- Mitt Romney had one of the best weeks of his campaign, starting out the week leading in Iowa (per the Des Moines Register poll), a state he's downplayed, and ending the week with a brutally effective attack on President Obama's economic record at a shuttered manufacturing plant in Allentown, Pennsylvania. The message was hard-hitting because Obama had campaigned at the factory in 2009 to tout his economic stimulus.

The fact that Romney can spend time in a non-presidential primary battleground shows how much he's already begun to focus on a general election strategy as much as a primary one.

-- The big loser in the Iowa Poll: ex-MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty, who placed behind Romney, Rep. Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, and Rep. Ron Paul. Not stellar for a candidate putting all his eggs in an Iowa basket.

And while Pawlenty tried to take control of the news cycle--touting his hawkish foreign policy in NYC Tuesday--the move seemed reminiscent of George W. Bush's agenda -- it did not resonate with the ascendant Tea Party faction. And Pawlenty's fundraising figures -- released at the end of the week -- were underwhelming, as well.

Almost half a million people contributed to President Obama's re-election campaign, manager Jim Messina said in an email to supporters on Saturday.

"More than 475,000 people decided to own a piece of this campaign in just our first quarter -- a promising sign of what's to come if we all stay focused and work together," Messina wrote. He did not disclose the total amount the campaign raised.

That's a good start for a campaign that ultimately attracted contributions from 3.95 million Americans, a number the campaign cited shortly after the 2008 election.

The campaign is expected to raise north of $60 million over the last three months. President Obama and First Lady Michele Obama hit big-dollar fundraisers outside the Beltway this week; Obama was in Philadelphia, while Mrs. Obama appeared at a fundraiser in Burlington, Vermont.

Campaign finance reports must be filed with the Federal Election Commission by July 15.

Former Godfather's Pizza executive Herman Cain pulled in just shy of $2.5 million in the second quarter of the year, a total aided by some of the candidate's own money.

Cain's campaign told Talking Points Memo the candidate had given himself "seed money," but that it was far less than the approximately $2 million former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman gave to his own campaign.

Cain's campaign won't report any debt, but campaign spokeswoman Ellen Carmichael said the team had sent out three national mail pieces to solicit money. Raising money by direct mail is one of the most expensive ways to pull in campaign donations, leading to high burn rates that could leave a campaign broke.

Still, given his lack of political experience, Cain has built a following. Carmichael told Talking Points Memo the campaign has already attracted more than 27,000 online donors.

Cain's haul is likely to be lower than most other candidates. Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty's team reported Friday they had raised $4.2 million, while Huntsman's team has raised a total of $4.1 million -- including the check the candidate wrote to his own campaign.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is trying to set expectations at around $15 million to $20 million, though those figures are likely low.

For the Fourth of July weekend, the Sunday shows will focus on immigration, American military action abroad, and the struggle in the states over balancing budgets.

On CBS' "Face the Nation," three governors and the mayor of Los Angeles will look at gridlock in Washington. Ohio Gov. John Kasich (R), Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick (D), Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R) and Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa will talk to host Bob Schieffer on the state of the states.

On Fox News Sunday, Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, will give an update on the debt ceiling negotiations. Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C, will discuss the president's withdrawal of forces in Afghanistan.

ABC's "This Week" will focus on immigration, with former Senator Mel Martinez, R-Fla., former DC schools Chancellor Michelle Rhee, and former Washington Post reporter Jose Antonio Vargas, who recently revealed that he is an undocumented worker living in the United States, participating on the panel.

"Meet the Press" is preempted by NBC's coverage of Wimbledon.

Get the full listings after the jump.