What We Learned: Debt's All, Folks
What we at The Hotline learned this week:
-- Neither party's base is going to be happy with the results of the debt talks. But in particular, the backlash against House Speaker John Boehner will speak volumes about just how much control the Tea Party types have over the GOP.
-- President Obama's second quarter haul was bigger than the entire GOP field's fundraising efforts combined. And with an average donation hovering at just $69, his reelection team will be able to go back to the well many times. But don't buy the $86 million number -- that's like adding the RNC's haul to Mitt Romney's campaign.
-- Several analysts have pointed out that simply having more money is hardly determinative in most congressional races. While that's technically true, it's important to remember that the last three cycles have been "wave" elections that tended to wash in many under-funded challengers. If 2012 is more of a neutral atmosphere, money could once again be a significant factor in many close congressional elections.
-- A lesson for candidates: Don't play games with your campaign finance numbers. Nothing makes blog fodder like calling out someone for fudging their numbers, and if D.C. picks it up, your hometown paper is probably going to write a story too. If you only raised $100,000, just admit it.
-- The big fundraising winner (and surprise) of the quarter: Ohio Republican Senate candidate Josh Mandel, who raised an impressive $2.3 million, more than Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, and nearly every other senator. He's the GOP's star recruit of the cycle, and looks like he'll give Brown a serious run for his money.
But while Mandel is an impressive recruit, his youth (he's 33, but looks even younger) could trip him up once he launches his campaign. He's already stumbled explaining away his enthusiastic cheering for Al Gore (as a college student in 2000) as part of his responsibility as student body president despite his conservative views.
-- Former Democratic National Committee Chairman Tim Kaine more than doubled former National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman George Allen's second quarter fundraising total in the Virginia Senate race, though neither had a particularly bad quarter. Kaine's $2.25 million put him in the top tier nationally of all Senate challengers while Allen's $1.1 million put him over $1 million better than his Tea Party-powered GOP primary challenger Jamie Radtke. Though Allen's campaign has attacked Kaine for raising money through outside groups, the fact of the matter is that personalities and policy positions matter much more to voters than the source of a candidate's campaign cash, especially in a race where outside groups will be lobbing in money on both sides all the way through November 2012.
-- Florida state Senate President Mike Haridopolos hasn't put the negative headlines behind him just yet. After seeing a significant drop-off in his fundraising numbers from the first to the second fundraising quarter, Haridopolos' campaign is shedding staffers and arousing accusations that a political adviser was paid with state government funds. It's too early to write off Haridopolos, and he still has more money in the bank than any of his GOP opponents, but his candidacy hasn't gotten off to the best start, to say the least.
-- Sen. Orrin Hatch, R-Utah, set a record with his second quarter fundraising haul. But remember, it's the inside game that matters more in Utah, where Hatch will have to survive the GOP convention process and convince delegates to support him.
-- Think embattled Rep. David Wu, D-Ore., is ready to throw in the towel? Think again. During the second quarter, Wu raised nearly four times the amount he raised during a comparable period in the 2010 election cycle.
-- Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., and former-Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pa., were quick to commit to signing a controversial marriage pledge from an Iowa conservative group last week. But this week, notable Republicans -- including Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad, weighed in against the pledge. Tim Pawlenty also refused to sign it, giving him at least one point of contrast with Bachmann, whom he is chasing in Iowa.
But how Pawlenty plays it will be interesting to watch. He knows he can't risk alienating Christian conservatives -- a factor illustrated clearly by the supplementary video Pawlenty released when he announced his decision not to sign the pledge.
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