August 2011

Former GOP Rep. Pete Hoekstra's Senate campaign in Michigan received the endorsement of the state's sitting governor, Rick Snyder on Monday, and earlier this morning, a former governor expressed hope that one of Hoekstra's Republican opponents, Clark Durant, would not challenge him in a primary.

"I am hopeful Clark decides he will stay with education and let Pete be the candidate," former Gov. John Engler told radio and TV host Michael Patrick Shiels.

Durant, a conservative who heads a Michigan charter school program, has said he plans to officially kick off his campaign after Labor Day. Michigan Republicans believe Durant poses an outside threat to Hoekstra winning the nomination.

While Engler praised Hoekstra, he stopped short of making an official endorsement.

"I don't get involved in the role that I've got today. I certainly have talked with Pete. I think he'd be an excellent United States Senator," he said.

Engler still wields some influence in Michigan politics, but an endorsement wouldn't likely make a huge impact with GOP primary voters; more valuable is Engler's network of policy and fundraising connections around Lansing.

Updated, 4:16 p.m.

The looming grudge match between California Democrats Howard Berman and Brad Sherman heated up Wednesday, with Berman rolling out several big name endorsements in their seemingly unavoidable matchup next year. The two longtime Democrats have both indicated they'll run in the new 30th District as a result of redistricting.

Berman announced that Gov. Jerry Brown, Sen. Dianne Feinstein, neighboring Rep. Henry Waxman, D-Calif., Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and Los Angeles County Supervisor Zev Yaroslavsky, will serve as honorary co-chairs of his campaign.

"I am honored to have received the early support of the Democratic leaders of our state of California," Berman said in a statement. "They are familiar with my work and accomplishments, and understand that in Congress I am not just another voice or another vote, but that I have a unique leadership role that enables me to serve the interests of the United States, California, and the San Fernando Valley."

Sherman has been firing his own political shots as well in the developing race between the two, unveiling his own list of local elected officials and business leaders earlier this month who were supporting him.

"It is no surprise that Congressman Berman, who has been in elected office since 1972, has support from some other elected officials. I have a strong list of supporters too," Sherman said in a statement. "Most importantly, I have released over 120 endorsements and statements of support from local community leaders -- people from the district -- who are powerful testimony to my history of community service in this district. I will be releasing another 150 or so names in the next week."

And Sherman jabbed in the Ventura County Star that Berman has been pressuring him to run in another district. Just last week, he released his own internal poll showing him with a 27-point lead over Berman in a head-to-head matchup, but also showing Berman in third in an all-party primary with Republican candidate Mark Reed.

The newly-drawn district contains more territory from Sherman's current district than Berman's.

Sen. Jim DeMint, R-S.C., isn't endorsing in the Wisconsin Senate race yet, but it's clear where his sympathies lie.

In canvassing conservative supporters about whether his Senate Conservatives Fund should back a candidate, he takes subtle but clear swipes at former Republican governor Tommy Thompson while offering glowing praise to Republican Mark Neumann, who's running as the conservative in the race.

"If Mark Neumann is elected, there is no question that he will fight to save freedom," DeMint writes in an email to supporters. "I could go on and on about Mark Neumann's conservative credentials, but you get the picture. He's the real deal."

DeMint goes on to warn that if conservatives don't unite behind a single candidate, "the conservative vote could be divided among two or three candidates, allowing a more liberal candidate to win a plurality."

He also writes that "media reports indicate that a Democrat-lite Republican could challenge Neumann for the nomination. This challenger is well-known statewide and has major fundraising connections, but he also backed ObamaCare and will not stand up for our values when it matters." He doesn't mention him by name, but that's a clear reference to Thompson, who has been taking heat from conservative critics in recent weeks as he gears up for a run.

The key takeaways from DeMint's note: first, as Assembly Speaker Jeff Fitzgerald gets set to enter the race, and state Sen. Frank Lasee appears a possibility, there is a risk that the conservative vote could get splintered. That would work to Thompson's advantage.

Second, if prominent conservatives begin to quickly line up behind Neumann (it's clear that DeMint likes Neumann, but also is keeping a close eye on what the Club For Growth does), Thompson will have a tough race on his hands.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. The Wisconsin Senate race pace is picking up, Mitt Romney changes his mind about a Palmetto State forum, and a "Survivor" explores a gubernatorial run in Indiana. Here's today's rundown:

8) Move over John Gregg and Rep. Mike Pence; former "Survivor" contestant Rupert Boneham is considering a run for governor of Indiana. Boneham has formed an exploratory committee to possibly seek the Libertarian Party's nomination for governor.

7) Yes, no, maybe so? It now appears that Christine O'Donnell will speak at a Tea Party rally Saturday in Iowa after organizers on Tuesday night reversed themselves again and re-invited her, CNN reports.

6) North Carolina Democratic Gov. Bev Perdue's communications director, Chrissy Pearson, is leaving for a post at another state agency.

5) Sen. Orrin Hatch's, R-Utah, campaign has bankrolled a new book that highlights his successes in conservative causes. The biography reads like campaign material, notes the Salt Lake Tribune.

President Obama is getting grief from the late night hosts after his uncle was arrested on drunken-driving charges in Massachusetts. Jimmy Fallon joked on Late Night, "You could tell he was an Obama because he was going left and then right, and by the end you couldn't tell what direction he was headed."

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 1:20 when David Letterman reveals what question you should never ask a man with no pulse.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump!

A new Quinnipiac University poll out early Wednesday shows Texas Gov. Rick Perry has climbed to a narrow lead in the race for the Republican presidential nomination, but former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney runs slightly better against President Obama among all voters.

Perry leads Romney in the GOP race, 24 percent to 18 percent. Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin is third at 11 percent, Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., is fourth at 10 percent, and Rep. Ron Paul, R-Tex., is fifth at 9 percent. No other candidate earns more than five percent of the vote, and 16 percent of Republican primary voters were undecided.

The poll is the third reliable survey in the past two weeks to show Perry in the lead. A Gallup poll released last week gave Perry an 11-point advantage over Romney, while Perry lead Romney in a CNN/ORC International poll released Monday by 13 points.

As Obama's re-election campaign surveys the landscape of the GOP race, a majority of voters believe Obama does not deserve to be re-elected, according to the poll. Forty-two percent say the president deserves to be re-elected, while 51 percent say he does not.

But Perry trails Obama narrowly, with the president capturing 45 percent of the vote to Perry's 42 percent. And for the new Republican frontrunner, Perry's ratings among all voters are tepid: Just 22 percent of voters say they have a favorable opinion of Perry, while 23 percent have an unfavorable opinion. A majority, 55 percent, haven't heard enough about him to form an opinion.

Romney ties Obama in a general-election matchup, with each garnering 45 percent. Last month, Obama led Romney by six points.

Obama holds wider leads over Bachmann (48 percent to 39 percent) and Palin (51 percent to 37 percent).

The presidential race won't be the only election in November 2012, of course, and the Quinnipiac poll finds the two parties tied on a House generic ballot at 38 percent; 19 percent of voters are undecided. That is statistically even with a Quinnipiac poll in late March, when Republicans had a three-point lead on the generic ballot.

Mitt Romney changed his mind about South Carolina.

After initially not responding to an invitation to appear at a Labor Day candidates' forum hosted by Sen. Jim DeMint, R-S.C., Romney has decided to join five other rivals, including surging Texas Gov. Rick Perry, R-Texas, on stage in Columbia, S.C.

Romney's last-minute entrance indicates that the longtime Republican frontrunner may be shifting strategy in the face of Perry's rapid rise in the polls. The former Massachusetts governor has been sparing in his public appearances, focusing more time on fundraising than on glad-handing.

Organizers of the event welcomed his decision, even though it came after the deadline for entering the forum. "Having full participation from all declared candidates who qualified for the forum proves once again how critical South Carolina is in choosing the next president," said DeMint in a statement.

The six candidates will appear on stage one at a time and will answer questions from DeMint, Rep. Steve King, R-Iowa, and Robert George, a Princeton University professor who helped organize the forum.

Other candidates participating: Reps. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., and Ron Paul, R-Texas, Georgia businessman Herman Cain, and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich.

During a one-on-one interview Tuesday, Texas Gov. Rick Perry said President Obama's reliance on economic advisers with an academic background, instead of ones with business experience, fatally wounded his fiscal policies.

"He has academics who have gone to some great schools and they are intelligent and very, very smart, but he does not have wise men and women around him," Perry told conservative talk show host Sean Hannity on his radio program. "And that's what his real problem is."

Perry stayed mostly on script during his interview Tuesday, focusing primarily on his 10-year record as governor, which featured some of the most robust job creation of any state in the country.

"People have watched us, maybe not terrifically closely, but they know the story of Texas," he said. "They know there's something special going on here. And the leadership that has been exhibited from the governor's position has been powerful."

The interview came hours after Perry's chief rival for the GOP nomination, Mitt Romney, took a thinly veiled shot at Perry's 26-year career in government during a speech in San Antonio, saying career politicians can't solve the problem they created. But the Texas governor steered clear of controversy. Asked what he thought of Romney, Perry said he didn't know him well enough to make a judgment before declaring that Republican voters aren't interested in personal squabbles between candidates.

"Americans are not interested in petty attacks on personalities and what-have-you," said the Texas governor. "They want to see a leader to stand up and say, 'Here's where we're going, here's how we're going to get there -- let's go.'"

Retired Army Col. Mike McCalister was the surprising leader of the GOP pack in an early August Quinnipiac University Florida Senate poll.

But things haven't been so rosy for him since.

The underdog candidate's military record has come under scrutiny from a veterans group, and the most recent Sachs/Mason Dixon poll had him at only 2 percent. Plus, the Miami Herald posted video earlier this month of an aide repeatedly trying to shepherd the candidate away from a Herald reporter questioning McCalister about a statement he previously made about testifying before Congress.

Now, the same Herald reporter is reminding readers there are pictures from years ago of that aide -- former congressional candidate Jason Sager -- dressed as Che Guevara, as part of an effort to mock liberal protesters.

Hernando Today explains how the photos became an issue in Sager's 2010 losing bid against now GOP Rep. Rich Nugent.

It turns out Christine O'Donnell won't be speaking at a Saturday Tea Party event in Iowa that is also slated to feature Sarah Palin.

Charlie Gruschow, a co-founder of Tea Party For America, the group sponsoring the event, told the Des Moines Register on Tuesday morning the announcement and subsequent retraction of the former Delaware Senate nominee's appearance was "a scheduling error for the most part."

In a statement released Tuesday, organizers called the O'Donnell announcement a "misunderstanding" and said she would not have a formal role in the event, the Register reports.

RENO, Nev. -- Nevada state Treasurer Kate Marshall is using the beginning of early voting to renew an attack on her Republican rival, accusing him of wanting to end Medicare.

In the new ad, Marshall, the Democratic nominee in a Sept. 13 special election for an open House seat here, accuses former state GOP chairman Mark Amodei of planning to end the entitlement program through his support of Rep. Paul Ryan's budget.

"Only a mother could defend what lobbyist-politician Mark Amodei has done: Supporting an end to Medicare to give tax breaks to millionaires," the narrator says, over footage of one of Amodei's previous ads. A woman who appears in the ad, meanwhile, calls Marshall "fiscally conservative."

The return to the Ryan budget is becoming a well-worn Democratic tactic after the party won a special election in upstate New York earlier this year. But Marshall has not stuck to the same monotonous script as Rep. Kathy Hochul did when she won that New York special election. Instead, Marshall's ads have focused more on Amodei's record in the legislature, and she moved away from the Medicare charge on air for a ew weeks.

The new ad comes as early voting kicked off Saturday and initial indications are that Democrats are falling behind. More than half the votes cast in Washoe County on Saturday, the first day the polls were open, came from Republican voters, while just 38 percent came from Democrats. Washoe, home of Reno and the most populous county wholly contained within the district, has a 43 percent to 35 percent Republican edge, meaning the GOP's turnout machine is outperforming the Democratic operation. Republicans held a similar advantage in Carson City.

Marshall is largely fighting her own battle, with the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee on the sidelines. Marshall will campaign Tuesday with House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer in Sparks and Reno, but the DCCC has not run ads on her behalf. The National Republican Congressional Committee, meanwhile, dumped another $60,000 into television ads on Amodei's behalf on Monday, bringing their total investment up to nearly $600,000. American Crossroads has spent another $250,000 on mail and other online advertising for Amodei.

Watch Marshall's new ad, produced by the Chicago-based firm Adelstein-Liston, after the jump:

Former GOP Rep. Mark Neumann's entrance into Wisconsin Senate race has sparked the beginning of what's shaping up to be a testy GOP primary. Former Wisconsin governor Tommy Thompson, preparing to enter the race shortly, is already working behind-the-scenes to discredit his likely rival. And Neumann, as the first candidate to jump in, is pretending Thompson doesn't even exist.

Here's a brief look at the messages each candidate is trying to drive home with GOP voters in Wisconsin:

Thompson:

Reminding voters about Neumann's 2010 gubernatorial bid: Neumann spent millions against now-Gov. Scott Walker, now a conservative poster child, and that rubbed some Republicans the wrong way. What's more, Neumann lost -- by 20 points. The Thompson campaign sought to remind Wisconsinites of both points in a statement Monday, sarcastically welcoming Neumann to the race.

"Republican voters deserve a primary campaign based on the issues. What Republicans do not need are more of the smear tactics Mark Neumann used in his failed campaign against Governor Scott Walker," said Thompson consultant Darrin Schmitz.

In a case of convenient timing, Thompson's team announced two new co-chairs Monday who were former co-chairs of Neumann's gubernatorial campaign - former Wisconsin Treasurer Cate Zeuske and former state Assembly Speaker John Gard. Republican sources also point to their commitment as a sign that Thompson is dead serious about following through on his campaign.

Jobs, Jobs, Jobs: Thompson's campaign team frequently cites his record on job creation, proudly proclaiming he created 740,000 jobs during his tenure as governor. Thompson allies say he's focused on the issue most Wisconsin voters care about, and isn't distracted by side issues.

Former Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann will announce today that he will enter the Democratic primary for the Aloha State's 2nd District seat, the Honolulu Star Advertiser reports. The seat is being vacated by Democratic Rep. Mazie Hirono, who is running for the Senate.

Hannemann becomes the most prominent candidate to enter the race for the safe Democratic seat. He ran against now-Gov. Neil Abercombie in last year's Democratic gubernatorial primary, and lost badly, after a running a campaign with negative tactics that rubbed many voters the wrong way.

Hannemann's decision also has implications for the Senate race. Had Hannemann opted for an upper chamber run, the centrist Democrat would have threatened to pull support away from former Rep. Ed Case. Now the Democratic contest is shaping up as a two-candidate race between Case and Hirono.

Former Vice President Dick Cheney promises that his newly released memoir will have "heads exploding all over Washington."

On his show last night Jimmy Fallon joked, "Especially if you read it while you're on a hunting trip with Dick Cheney, [impersonating Cheney] 'I thought that was a duck.'"

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward 0:25 when Cheney shows off his new heart device.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump!

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Bullock readies a gubernatorial bid in Montana, while in Arizona, Jan Brewer is up against the clock is she tries to move up the state's primary. Meanwhile, Bill Maloney gets hit with a new ad, and what will it look like when and if Romney hits Perry? Here's today's rundown:

8) The Disaffected Party, and the Apathatarians, the Flying Spaghetti Monster Party, the Zombie Hunters of America Party, the Awesome Party, the Charles Barkleyism Party and the Galactic Empire Party -- these are all strange party names to which Arizona voters have claimed allegiance in election records.

7) The New York Times takes a closer look at first term New Mexico Gov. Susana Martinez, who is quietly building a national profile and continues to be talked about as a potential vice presidential nominee. Martinez has worked to distinguish herself from her predecessor, ridding herself of what she saw as some of the excesses of the office when former Democratic Gov. Bill Richardson was in power, including a state-owned jet and private chefs in the governor's mansion. Undoing some of his other policies has proven more difficult -- she pushed hard to reverse a measure allowing illegal immigrants to get driver's licenses, but the attempt failed the Senate and she has vowed to press the matter again in a special session that begins next month.

6) Christine O'Donnell will take the stage at a Saturday Tea Party rally in Iowa shortly before Sarah Palin.

Is Peter Kinder the Republican answer to Missouri Gov. Jay Nixon in 2012? It appears even he hasn't made a final call on this question just yet.

In the face of a troubling fundraising pace and cascading negative headlines in recent months capped by accusations made by a former stripper that forced him to play defense, the lieutenant governor is embarking on a statewide tour before making a final decision on whether he will run in 2012.

"I am committed to waging a winning campaign as I have done 5 times before," Kinder writes in a lengthy note to supporters Monday. "But before I make my decision, I will begin a statewide tour and visit every corner of the state and meet with conservatives, grassroots activists and all Missouri voters, while listening to you and your concerns. I will share the details of my plans of how we can restore Missouri's greatness by creating new higher paying jobs, cutting waste and fraud of taxpayers' dollars, improving schools, and rebuilding our communities."

"Before I make my final decision," he continues, "I want the chance to earn your trust so together we make the difference you deserve. Together we can chart a course to win in November 2012. Without your support I cannot succeed, and I will not run if I cannot win. The decision should reside in your hands, not a few powerbrokers or the media. If I were not a real threat to their politics as usual and out of control spending, they would not be attacking me so viciously and falsely."

Kinder offers an apology in his note, but also partially blames Democrats and the media for his plight.

"While my opponents' operatives have taken advantage of a situation you may have heard of, I accept complete responsibility and apologize to you for my actions of almost 17 years ago as a single man.

"With that being said, I strongly oppose the notion that Republicans should allow Democrat dirty tricks or media bias to disqualify or choose the Republican nominee for Governor," he writes.

The email, at once confrontational and apologetic, illustrates the tough spot Kinder is in right now. If he offers a complete mea culpa, he only reemphasizes what his critics have been charging. If he stands in complete defiance, he risks losing the voters who want him to apologize.

An unenviable position to find oneself in.

Check out Kinder's full email after the jump.

Advice for elected officials facing potential natural disaster? Overreact.

Political leaders up and down the Eastern Seaboard who prepared diligently for Hurricane Irene are receiving generally positive reviews Monday for their handling of the storm.

The region did not escape without notable damage and tragic loss; a day after the weakening storm departed the U.S., some areas are still dealing with the aftereffects, and the storm's death toll has now risen to 37 people in 10 states, according to the Associated Press. But while natural disasters have the potential to derail a politician's career if handled inadequately (see Lindsay, John), the attention paid to Irene has won plaudits for several politicians at the local, state and federal level.

At the federal level, President Obama's reelection campaign hopes his response to the storm will be seen as a restoration of the government's competence in handling a crisis -- an important issue in Obama's 2008 winning campaign.

Six years ago today, Hurricane Katrina made landfall in southern Plaquemines Parish, La., devastating the Gulf Coast and inundating New Orleans with flood-waters. But the inability of government -- at the municipal, state and federal level -- to respond to the storm would soon eclipse Mother Nature as the enduring story of Katrina.

The failure of government in the wake of Hurricane Katrina was embodied by one statement then President George W. Bush uttered five days after the storm made landfall. "Brownie, you're doing a heck of a job," Bush told then-FEMA Administrator Michael Brown

"Brown was patently not doing a heck of a job," wrote historian Douglas Brinkley in his book "The Great Deluge."

This time around, government was deadly serious, and it was out in full force. Obama cut his vacation short a day and coordinated meetings from the White House over the weekend, addressing to the nation late Sunday afternoon, as the storm was barreling through northern New England and into Quebec.

As journalists and opposition researchers begin to dive deeper into Texas Gov. Rick Perry's record, the Austin American-Statesman's Ken Herman provides a some color in relaying the tale of one journalist in pursuit of more information on the Lone Star State governor.

Here's one account Herman includes in his latest column, in which he profiles Robert Morrow, a Texan who has been fueling rumors about Perry:

My American-Statesman colleague Mike Ward, one of the best diggers in our business, recently wound up at what he called a "nasty little townhouse" in North Austin to meet someone sources indicated might know something of potential note about Perry. Ward knocked on the door and identified himself. As Ward told me, "I kind of look like a cop." He kind of sounds like one, too. The conversation did not last too long.

"This guy basically said, 'We don't want nothing, and you need to get the hell out of here.' He had a knife he was cleaning his fingernails with and he said, 'I think you get it.' And I said, 'I get it,' " said Ward, father of two cute kids.

With Rep. Colleen Hanabusa, D-Hawaii, opting against a Senate bid and former Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann possibly headed for a run in Hawaii's 2nd District, the possibility of a direct Democratic showdown between Rep. Mazie Hirono and former Rep. Ed Case is looking more likely.

Case, who has in the past found himself opposite the state's Democratic establishment looks like he is headed for a similar spot this cycle. The Honolulu Star Advertiser:

[Hawaii Democratic Party Chairman Dante] Carpenter has pledged that the party will remain neutral in the primary, but many establishment Democrats, labor leaders and progressives are aligning behind Hirono.

Labor leaders met privately Wednesday at the International Longshore and Warehouse Union's headquarters and reached consensus on what participants later described as a "solid front" for Hirono.

The former congressman has already ruffled some feathers by releasing the results of an internal poll showing him faring better than Hirono against former Gov. Linda Lingle, prompting pushback from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. Meanwhile, Hirono already has the support of EMILY's List, and is working to coalesce local establishment support.

Still, addressing concerns over electability may be more pressing for Hirono, who lost to Lingle in the 2002 governor's race after defeating Case in the primary. In which case, rallying early, widespread support within the party will be crucial for the 2nd District congresswoman. For Case, raising doubts over Hirono's ability to win the general is already an emerging strategic gambit.

A new CNN/ORC International poll released Monday confirms Texas Gov. Rick Perry's ascendancy atop the Republican presidential field and demonstrates, along with last week's Gallup poll, that Perry has the potential to build a broader coalition of supporters than his GOP opponents.

Perry leads former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, 27 percent to 14 percent, with former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin at 10 percent, and Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani at 9 percent each.

When those respondents who chose Palin and Giuliani are prompted for their second (or third) choices, Perry (32 percent) increases his lead over Romney (18 percent), while Bachmann sits in third at 12 percent.

But as Ronald Brownstein wrote in this space about last week's Gallup poll, it is Perry's ability to appeal to voters across socioeconomic strata that most notably underscores his position as frontrunner. In the initial matchup, Perry earns 22 percent of the vote among Republicans who did not attend college, leading Palin (16 percent). Romney has the support of just 10 percent of the non-college vote.

Former GOP Rep. Mark Neumann officially announced his Wisconsin Senate candidacy Monday morning on conservative radio host Charlie Sykes' show, but steered clear of taking shots at former Gov. Tommy Thompson, opting instead to aim his criticism squarely at a likely Democratic candidate, Rep. Tammy Baldwin.

"I believe our opponent is Tammy Baldwin and I believe it is essential that we bring Tammy Baldwin's record to the forefront," Neumann said.

Neumann, a former two-term congressman in the 1990s, becomes the first official candidate to enter the race. He is on a collision course with Thompson, who has already been setting the table for a bid of his own.

Conservatives, including the fiscally conservative group Club For Growth, have been vocally opposing a Thompson candidacy from the right. Aides to Thompson have blasted the Club's attacks, and accused Neumann of being allied with the group, who employs staffers who formerly worked for the congressman.

"I have a great deal of respect for Tommy Thompson," Neumann said Monday, later definitively stating that his campaign does not have input in the Club's decisions.

"I would hope that the Club For Growth would support my candidacy," he added.

The Club has been critical of Thompson's support for an early version of the Democrats' health care measure in the Senate in 2009. For his own part, Neumann on Monday said he will be criticizing Baldwin's support of the Democrats' health care measure.

"Obamacare is going to be talked about in our campaign and Tammy Baldwin supported Obamacare," Neumann said.

Baldwin has not officially entered the race, but has signaled she's planning a run.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Mark Neumann is the first Republican in the Wisconsin Senate race, while Michael Capuano's name is still in the mix in Massachusetts. Meanwhile, Rahm Emanuel runs a race of his own in Chicago. Here's today's rundown:

8) Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel placed ninth of out 80 in his age group in the Life Time Chicago sprint triathlon Sunday. Not too bad.

7) Baltimore Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake is a big favorite in Charm City's Sept. 13 Democratic primary, according to a Baltimore Sun poll released Sunday. Rawlings-Blake earns the support of half of likely Democratic primary voters, with the rest of the field only earning 32 percent combined.

6) A federal judge in Chicago ruled Friday that Illinois congressional candidates can collect candidacy signatures after Labor Day despite a pending lawsuit filed by Republicans challenging the redrawing of the state's U.S. House district boundaries, the Chicago Tribune reported. The ruling could make it difficult to challenge a candidate's candidacy signatures if boundary lines are shifted as a result of the federal court.

We hope you've got power after Hurricane Irene blew through yesterday. Even if you're waiting for the repair folks, we hope you're safe. Here's what we at The Hotline learned this week:

-- Texas Gov. Rick Perry is the new frontrunner in the Republican presidential field. He's now leading Mitt Romney in the latest Gallup poll, and he leads among every demographic except among the rapidly shrinking Rockefeller Republicans (In fact, Gallup found Perry slightly doing better among college-educated voters than those without a degree).

Perry's biggest problem is a conservative media elite that doesn't like his shoot-from-the-hip style. As National Review's Jonah Goldberg wrote Friday: "Folksiness isn't a substitute for seriousness."

-- Perry will certainly liven up the race. He's come out swinging against Romney since entering the race two weeks ago. We have yet to see Romney swing back -- except subtly, contrasting his brief four-year stay in office with Perry's 25+ years in government. Look for Romney to pound that message as both men compete for support in the business community.

-- No Hanabusa? No problem. That is, if you are Rep. Mazie Hirono, D-Hawaii. The clearest beneficiary of Rep. Colleen Hanabusa's decision not to make a Senate bid is Hirono, who now does not have to worry about a major split in the liberal vote against her Democratic opponent, the more centrist former Rep. Ed Case.

-- The Club For Growth hasn't been shy about lambasting former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson in advance of his likely Senate bid. The group hasn't explicitly endorsed former Rep. Mark Neumann, who is set to enter the race next week, but they're running ads against Thompson and Neumann's entrance will give the Club and attractive conservative option to get behind.

-- Rep. Jason Chaffetz's, R-Utah, surprising decision not to challenge Sen. Orrin Hatch is a blow to conservatives hoping to unseat the longtime Republican senator. But Tea Party activists and other groups are not giving up hope that they can find a viable alternative to Chaffetz. They may well get one, but Hatch's $3.4 million war chest isn't going to help activists pitch their case to potential candidates (Then again, it doesn't take that much money to mount a credible campaign when your audience is 2,000 to 3,000 convention attendees).

As East Coast residents brace themselves for Hurricane Irene's arrival, the Sunday shows will focus on the latest developments surrounding the storm, with several programs featuring an interview with Federal Emergency Management Agency director Craig Fugate.

Check out the Sunday listings below and other weekend shows after the jump.

Sunday:

Meet The Press hosts Fugate and former Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman.
Face The Nation hosts former Secretary of State Colin Powell and will have the latest on Hurricane Irene.
This Week hosts Fugate (Jake Tapper will be the substitute anchor).
Fox News Sunday hosts Fugate and Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas.
State of the Union hosts Fugate.

Bay State Democratic Senate candidate Alan Khazei is fundraising off of Republican Sen. Scott Brown adviser Eric Fehrnstrom's admission that he was behind the @CrazyKhazei Twitter account, the Boston Globe reports.

Khazei had far and away the best second fundraising quarter in the Democratic field (Elizabeth Warren was not in the field then; just this month, she filed paperwork to form an exploratory committee).

"While it's clear Eric was seeking to inject a little levity into politics on his own time, I wasn't aware of what he was doing. I've made it clear to everyone on or associated with my team that this type of thing is not to happen again," Brown said Thursday.

As Hurricane Irene bears down on the Eastern Seaboard this weekend, those of us at The Hotline spent the day buying bottled water and boarding up our windows. But we wanted to make sure you had something to do if you're stuck inside this weekend:

1. If the power goes out, take a cue from former Rep. Mark Neumann, R-Wis., and host a beer stein holding contest. Or, start preparing your Senate candidacy.

2. Play a board game with your family. Just remember to be civil. We know a Monopoly game can get heated, but a fight might come back to haunt you if you ever plan to run for Senate. Just ask Linda McMahon.

3. Spend some quality time with your pets. If you need any tips, look no further than the Donkey Whisperer himself, TX-33 candidate Roger Williams.

4. Read a book. We suggest reading Christine O'Donnell's epic behind-the-campaign melodrama, "Troublemaker: Let's Do What It Takes To Make America Great Again." A sample quote: "It's not like this waffling is unknown in politics, but usually wafflers ... well they waffle."

5. Don't be a hero. But if you can step out amid a break in the weather, remember to go to the bathroom before you leave.

West Virginia acting Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin outraised his Republican opponent, businessman Bill Maloney and finished with more money in the bank at the end of the latest fundraising period, a review of camapign finance reports filed with the state Friday afternoon reveals.

The latest reports cover the period between May 27 and August 21. Tomblin, a Democrat and the frontrunner in the race, raised over $1.25 million during that time, finishing with $975,000 cash on hand and $33,000 worth of debt.

Maloney, who has been relying heavily on his own money, brought in over $392,000 during the same period, finishing with over $576,000 in the bank. He loaned himself an additional $750,000 and finished with $1.4 million worth of debt.

A majority of Republican primary voters in Florida are undecided about the GOP Senate race, according to a new Sachs/Mason-Dixon poll.

Fifty-two percent of voters are undecided, according to the survey. A Quinnipiac University poll conducted at the beginning of August showed similar findings: 53 percent of Republican voters were undecided in that survey.

Rep. Vern Buchanan leads the GOP pack in the Sachs/Mason-Dixon poll at 14 percent. Buchanan has left the door open to a run, even as he faces allegations of campaign finance improprieties. Rep. Allen West, who announced Monday he will not be making a Senate bid is second at 11 percent, followed by a slew of contenders all in single digits, including former state House Majority Leader Adam Hasner (8 percent), former Sen. George LeMieux (7 percent), former Ruth's Chris Steakhouse CEO Craig Miller (5 percent), retired U.S. Army Col. Mike McCalister (2 percent) and David Gee (1 percent).

The findings of both the Quinnipiac poll and the Sachs/Mason-Dixon survey underscore the lack of a consensus candidate in the current field and the room for another candidate to enter the Republican race and make a splash.

"Florida Republicans are voting 'undecided' in a big way with less than one year before the Florida Senate Republican primary," said Ron Sachs, president of Ron Sachs Communications. "While Senator Nelson has a comfortable lead for now, Republicans have yet to find their candidate and the field has yet to be settled."

In separate match-ups among registered voters against three Republican challengers, Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson sports double-digit leads. Nelson leads LeMieux 49 percent to 34 percent, Hasner 45 percent to 34 percent and Buchanan 45 to 35 percent in separate head-to-head match-ups.

The poll of 625 registered voters was conducted from August 18-22 and carries a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percent. The over-sample of 300 likely Republican primary voters carries a margin of error of +/-5.7 percent.

As Hurricane Irene heads to the East Coast, Late Late Show host Craig Ferguson is particularly concerned about D.C. residents, "In Washington D.C. thousands have been left with no power. They're called Democrats."

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 1:00 for a look back at some of the best moments in weather reporting.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump!

Former Rep. Mark Neumann, R-Wis., plans to enter the race for retiring Democratic Sen. Herb Kohl's seat, according to a source familiar with the former congressman's plans.

The source said Neumann is expected to make his official announcement as early as next Monday.

This will be the second Senate run for Neumann, who served in the House from 1995-1999. He lost a challenge to Democrat Russ Feingold in 1998. Most recently, Neumann ran for governor in 2010, losing in the GOP primary to now-Gov. Scott Walker.

Neumann is expected to run to the right of former Gov. Tommy Thompson, who is also preparing to make a Senate bid. The fiscally-conservative Club For Growth has been actively opposing a Thompson candidacy, and the group has even run a television ad tying Thompson to President Obama. It's not clear yet whether the Club will get behind Neumann in the race, though he has expressed hope that the organization will. The group's executive vice president is a former Neumann aide.

One of Neumann's strengths is his ability to self-fund. He spent over $6 million in the governor's race, much of which was his own money. Despite spending heavily, he still got blown out by Walker. But many conservatives will no doubt be excited about having a viable alternative to Thompson.

Other possible Republican candidates include former state Sen. Ted Kanavas and state Assembly Speaker Jeff Fitzgerald. On the Democratic side, Rep. Tammy Baldwin, who is likely to make a bid of her own, is the early frontrunner.

President Obama's reelection campaign announced a major voter outreach drive Thursday that aims to bring the Democratic base to the polls. 'Project Vote' will combine grassroots organizing with digital outreach and voter registration to "expand the electorate" and "maximize participation from crucial constituencies," Obama for America announced in a statement.

The campaign will target demographic groups that came out big for Obama in 2008, including, African-Americans, women, young people, Latinos, LGBT and Asian-Americans. Ninety-five percent of African-American voters, 67 percent of Latinos and 62 percent of Asian-Americans went for Obama over Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., in 2008, according to the Pew Research Center; two-thirds of voters under age 30 supported Obama.

This cycle, the Obama campaign will have to contend with a new slate of voter ID laws and other restrictions at the state level that will affect the very demographic groups Project Vote aims to reach. As many as 12 percent of eligible voters nationwide do not have a government-issued photo ID, and seniors, minorities, low-income voters and students are particularly likely to lack the correct documentation, the Brennan Center for Justice has found.

Thirty-three states considered voter ID laws this year, and Alabama, Kansas, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas and Wisconsin passed new voter ID laws in their 2011 legislative sessions. Other states reduced the period for early voting.

Obama strategist David Axelrod called the wave of voter ID legislation and other restrictions "calculated strategy" by Republicans to "hold down voter turnout," USA Today reported in June.

"The reality is that Team Obama has lost significant ground with every constituency and they are scrambling to shore up those losses with 'Project Vote,'" Republican National Committee spokeswoman Kirsten Kukowski said in a statement.

A clear majority of Florida voters disapproves of President Obama's job performance, and Obama trails former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney by eight points in the key swing state, according to a new Sachs/Mason-Dixon poll released late Thursday.

Only 41 percent of Florida voters approve of the president's performance in office, with 56 percent disapproving. His disapproval rating is up five points since the firm's last poll in April. Obama's approval rating with independents is just 36 percent, with 55 percent disapproving.

Romney holds a comfortable 51 to 43 percent lead over President Obama, but Texas Gov. Rick Perry runs evenly with the president, with a 46 to 45 percent advantage. Rep. Michele Bachmann also is competitive with Obama, trailing 46 to 44 percent.

The poll's findings are similar to Qunnipiac, which conducted polling in Florida earlier this month. Quinnipiac pegged Obama's approval rating in the state at 44 percent.

In the Republican presidential race, the poll found Romney leading Perry in Florida, 28 to 21 percent, with Bachmann in third at 13 percent. Businessman Herman Cain tallied seven percent, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich had five percent, and four percent backed Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas. Not a single respondent supported former Utah governor Jon Huntsman.

Americans have turned on both political parties, according to a new Pew Research Center survey released Thursday that shows the ratings for most institutions of government, politics and other aspects of public life have reached all-time lows.

Only 11 percent of Americans are "basically content" with the federal government today, compared to 22 percent who said they were content this winter. The only other time the percentage of Americans who were content with government dropped below 20 percent was in March 2010, during the final days of the debate over the Democratic health care bill, when 19 percent told Pew's pollsters that they were content.

The percentage of Americans who approve of President Obama has nudged one percent lower over the past month, to 43 percent, and 49 percent now disapprove of the president's job performance, a new high in Pew polling. More troubling for Obama: 38 percent now "very strongly" disapprove of the job he is doing, almost equal to his overall approval rating.

Sen. Scott Brown, R-Mass., adviser Eric Fehrnstrom admitted Wednesday that he was behind the fake Twitter account @CrazyKhazei, used to poke fun at Democratic Senate candidate Alan Khazei. The Khazei campaign has subsequently said Brown should denounce @CrazyKhazei's tweets, and ask that the Twitter account be closed.

As our colleague Sean Sullivan has pointed out, fake Twitter handles are nothing new. Still, the recent Bay State dust up has reminded us here at The Hotline that there is etiquette to fake Twitter accounts. Below is a handy list to keep in mind if you too are planning on pulling a Fehrnstrom:

The Do's:

1) Get into character. When in the right hands, the gimmick proves to be effective. Columbia College of Chicago journalism professor Dan Sinke eloquently illustrates this point when tweeting from famed fake Twitter account @MayorEmanuel. An important amendment to this rule: make sure you are actually funny. This is one of the many downfalls of @FlitRomney.

2) Use animals. They are cute, friendly, and who can stay mad at them? Before the mouse's untimely death, @PoliticoMouse captivated Tweeps with banter and a history of "winning the cheese since 2007." The lovable rodent even had a frenemy in New York Times' @nyt_mouse, who also proved to be informative. Here's a sample tweet of the native New Yorker during the debt ceiling debate. @nyt_mouse: "Latenight newsroom pizza! RT @BreakingNews House Majority Whip: Members...stay nearby...we still expect to vote tonight-NBC News."

One candidate that has been overlooked in the Utah governor's race is Snowball, a feral cat who tweets about the issues from his @UTferalcat account. Snowball's decision to run grew in response to Utah state Rep. Curt Oda, who sponsored the so-called "feral cat" bill, allowing animals deemed pests to be shot. According to his bio, Snowball's decision to run was a way to give voice to "threats to the feral cat way of life coming from the Utah Legislature."

3) Keep it silly. The point of a fake Twitter account is to be real enough that even a reasonable person may at first do a double-take and wonder, "Is this legit?" That's where your flirtation with reality should end. It's an arguably fine line, but there comes a point where some Twitter accounts cross the line from funny into identity theft, and sometimes truly creepy territory. As a general rule, incorporating real life characters into a joke is a great idea. Referencing your persona's interactions with his real life wife and children, without punch lines, is creepy. If you find yourself typing the words "this really is (insert your persona's name here)," as @GeorgeBush did, stop and think about getting a hobby.

Updated at 11:11 a.m. on 8/26

Michigan Republican Gov. Rick Snyder will officially throw his support behind former Rep. Pete Hoekstra's Senate campaign on Monday, according to sources close to Hoekstra, giving the former gubernatorial candidate an endorsement from the man who defeated him in last year's primary.

Snyder and Hoekstra will appear together in Southfield at 10:45 a.m. Monday morning.

Hoekstra did an about-face last month, jumping in the race several months after announcing that he wouldn't run, giving Michigan Republicans the top-tier candidate they sought against Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow, who polls show to be vulnerable heading into 2012.

The endorsement is a boost for Hoekstra, who is the early frontrunner in the Republican race that also includes several other candidates, including Clark Durant, a conservative who ran for the Senate over two decades ago in 1990 and heads a Michigan charter school program. Durant recently received the backing of three former state party chairs.

Snyder's support has the potential to expand Hoekstra's fundraising base in southeast Michigan, where his name recognition has lagged despite his statewide run in 2010. The blessing of Snyder, formerly the CEO of Gateway Inc. and an Ann Arbor resident, could help Hoekstra compete for deep-pocketed donors in wealthy pockets of Livingston and Oakland Counties.

Hoekstra, who hails from the west side of the state, could benefit greatly from Snyder's fundraising connections should he find himself in a two-man race against Durant. Durant has built an impressive network of metro Detroit donors to support his Cornerstone Schools, though it remains unclear how many of those education-minded donors will ante up to support Durant's political aspirations.

Texas Gov. Rick Perry, in his first national radio interview since announcing his presidential bid, said Thursday he considers Washington, D.C. "a seedy place," but jokingly said he wasn't certain if he could locate another of President Obama's recent haunts - Martha's Vineyard.

In chatting with conservative radio talk-show host Laura Ingraham. Perry also made no apologies for his unvarnished bluntness that has caused him to already land in headlines several times.

"I speak plainly, I call it like I see it," Perry said. "Look, I am not an establishment figure, never have been and frankly I don't want to be. I dislike Washington; I think it's a seedy place. Our country is in trouble, and I don't have the privilege to sit on the sideline and watch our country be destroyed economically by a president who has been conducting an experiment on the American economy for the last two and half years."

Asked about the sniping over his record as governor that has come from members of former President George W. Bush's inner circle, Perry lavished praise on Bush's father: "I don't think there is a more honorable man, a better man than George H.W. Bush, one of the finest men I've ever met in my life--he and Mrs. Bush ... And they taught their children."

As for his predecessor in the Texas governor's office, George W. Bush: "I'm not George Bush," Perry said. "I don't try to be. I respect him. I consider him a friend."

The governor also struck back at Obama's education secretary, Arne Duncan, who has attacked Perry's record on improving education in the Lone Star State: "We have increased our funding for Texas public schools and our children by record amounts. Under my leadership, general revenue spending for public education increased $11 billion."

As for whether he'd ever follow Obama's lead in vacationing on Martha's Vineyard, Perry said:

"I'm not even sure if I know where it is."

It looked like just another press release: "Kate Marshall Issues Statement of Support for Israel as Violence Escalates." But scrolling to the bottom of the email from the campaign of the Democratic nominee in Nevada's 2nd District special election reveals her team included more than intended.

Here's how the release ends: "Background: Israel has been in the news lately, and will be even more in the news with Beck's 'Rally to Restore Courage' in Jerusalem. In an R district, it will be useful to express support for Israel and demonstrate some foreign policy prowess while it is a timely topic - especially for people who are likely paying attention to Beck's event."

Jon Ralston first spotted the inclusion of the internal note.

It's far from the first time unintended information has found its way into a release to reporters. In May, an email release from the Democratic National Committee included this note: "I'd lead on the pawlenty hit w/ leaving MN with a record deficit before the defensive stuff."

You can see Marshall's full release after the jump.

Apparently earthquake damage was still being discovered in Washington -- at least according to David Letterman.

On his show Wednesday, Letterman joked, "The earthquake was so strong that the tea party shifted to the center."

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 1:48 to see the top five signs that Muammar el-Qaddafi is hiding in your neighborhood.

Take our late-night poll after the jump...

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Ovide sure sounds like a gubernatorial candidate in New Hampshire, EMILY's List puts two more candidates "On the List" and Fehrnstrom fesses up. Plus, embattled New Hampshire GOP Chairman Jack Kimball will appear at a late morning news conference, as rumors of his resignation swirl. Here's today's rundown:

8) Crazy like a ... political operative? When liberal blog BlueMassGroup spotted an odd tweet from Romney and Scott Brown adviser Eric Fehrnstrom, a game of connect-the-dots seemed to show that the GOP strategist was behind the @CrazyKhazei Twitter account that mocks Bay State Democratic Senate candidate Alan Khazei. After dodging reporters for most of Wednesday, Fehrnstrom fessed up late in the day, telling the Boston Globe, "Sometimes we take our politics too seriously and this was my way of lightening things up. As they say in politics, if you can't stand the tweet, get out of the kitchen."

7) Florida House Speaker Dean Cannon, an influential Sunshine State pol, has endorsed Texas Gov. Rick Perry's presidential candidacy.

6) The New York Times has the details of a new memoir from Dick Cheney, in which the former vice president writes that after undergoing heart surgery in 2010, he was unconscious for weeks and had a prolonged, vivid dream that he was living in an Italian villa, pacing the stone paths to get coffee and newspapers.

He also takes some shots at former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and former CIA director George Tenet.

Former Rep. Mark Neumann, R-Wis., is considering entering an open seat Senate race that may also include Republican Tommy Thompson, but so far, he only has nice things to say about the former Badger State governor.

Neumann responded in a non-confrontational manner Wednesday to an acerbic letter sent to him by a former top aide to Thompson from his time as governor, charging the former congressman and his "ally," the Club for Growth, is "trashing, lying, about Tommy Thompson's record."

Jim Klauser, who Thompson named last week as an honorary co-chair of his campaign, sent Neumann the letter, in which he referred to the Club -- which this week released an ad tying Thompson to President Obama -- as a "right wing Washington DC political group." A former Neumann aide is the group's executive vice president.

"I have a great deal of respect for Tommy Thompson," Neumann told Hotline On Call. "Anybody who knows me or my family realizes how much respect I have. That ad is not from us and, like I say, we just have a great deal of respect for Tommy Thompson."

As former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson's critics continue to disparage his record in advance of a likely Senate bid, dissatisfied conservatives are left searching for an alternative. But the current lack of a consensus challenger speaks volumes about the uncertainty of the nascent Republican field and the electoral climate in the state following a volatile 2011.

One possibility is former Rep. Mark Neumann, who ran for the Senate against Democrat Russ Feingold in 1998. Neumann has been considering a run for some time, and a source close to the former congressman said a decision "is coming very soon."

"Mark's highest priority is crystal clear: our nation's $14 trillion debt crisis harms not only the economy, but also the very nature of America," the source added.

He's no stranger to politics. Most recently, he ran for governor against then-Milwaukee County Executive and now-Gov. Scott Walker in 2010. One of Neumann's strengths is his ability to self-fund; a factor that was apparent in his race against Walker, as he spent over $6 million, much of which was his own money. But even as he advertised on television regularly, he was blown out by Walker by a 20 point margin.

But Neumann, who runs a homebuilding business, brings his own baggage to the race. He remained outside of politics for the better part of the last decade before making a bid for governor in 2010, running a camapign that rubbed some the wrong way.

"A lot of people don't like the way Mark Neumann ran his race against Walker," said veteran Wisconsin Republican strategist Scott Becher. "A lot of people think that basically he tried to embarrass Scott Walker and embarrass the party," he added.

A closer look at Wednesday's striking Gallup poll showing Texas Gov. Rick Perry rocketing to the top of the 2012 Republican presidential field captures the threat his campaign could pose to Mitt Romney, the former Massachusetts governor who had previously been considered the front-runner.

The Gallup results show Perry displaying broad reach across the party, with appeal that, for now at least, transcends lines of income and education. Those results underscore Perry's potential, as a staunch social conservative with a strong economic story in Texas, to build a primary coalition that bridges the divide between upscale, managerial Republicans and the party's more populist and evangelical blue-collar wing.

From National Journal:
PICTURES: GOP Contenders on Climate Change

Quake Raises Emergency Preparedness Questions

Steve Jobs Resigns as CEO of Apple

PICTURES: What MLK Means to Me

Overall, the survey, conducted from August 17-21, showed Perry leading the field with 29 percent among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. Romney trailed with 17 percent, followed by Ron Paul with 13 percent and Michele Bachmann at 10 percent.

According to figures provided to National Journal by Gallup, Perry leads Romney not only among Republican voters without a college education -- a group always expected to be responsive to Perry's anti-government and culturally-conservative arguments-but also among GOP voters with at least a four year college degree. That group had been Romney's strongest in earlier polling, offsetting his difficulty among working-class Republicans. In 2008, the GOP primary electorate split almost exactly in half between voters with and without a college degree.

Poppycock, manufactured, hoax, contrived phony mess, a beautifully concocted scheme, patently absurd: all are words and phrases Republican presidential candidates have used to describe the idea that man-made global warming is occurring.

Texas Gov. Rick Perry made headlines last week with comments questioning the science on climate change. While Perry's statements garnered buzz, his apparent belief that global warming is a type of hoax is right in line with most of the Republican primary field -- with a few exceptions, most notably former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, the other frontrunner in the GOP race.

"I think we're seeing almost weekly, or even daily, scientists that are coming forward and questioning the original idea that manmade global warming is what is causing the climate to change," Perry said in New Hampshire.

In his 2010 book, "Fed Up!" Perry also put his views on global warming bluntly, calling it "all one contrived phony mess that is falling apart under its own weight." He also wrote that Democrats "know that we have been experiencing a cooling trend, that the complexities of the global atmosphere have often eluded the most sophisticated scientists, and that draconian policies based on so-called science may not stand the test of time."

Here's a look at where other candidates stand on whether humans are impacting climate change.

Romney: as Alex Roarty wrote back in June, Romney thinks man has contributed to climate change and urges a reduction of greenhouse gasses.

"I believe the world is getting warmer, and I believe that humans have contributed to that," he said during a June 3 town hall meeting in New Hampshire, according to Reuters. "It's important for us to reduce our emissions of pollutants and greenhouse gases that may be significant contributors."

Huntsman: former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman clarified his position in a Thursday tweet: "To be clear. I believe in evolution and trust scientists on global warming. Call me crazy."

"We're not going to win a national election if we become the anti-science party," Huntsman adviser John Weaver, told the Washington Post after Perry's comments last week.

Texas Gov. Rick Perry has vaulted to the front of the field of Republican presidential candidates, according to the first Gallup poll conducted since Perry declared his candidacy earlier this month.

Perry now leads former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, 25 to 14 percent. Last month, Perry ran a close second to Romney, trailing the erstwhile frontrunner by just two points despite the fact that Perry had yet to officially announce he would run.

Perry expands his lead to 12 points, 29 to 17 percent, when Gallup substituted the second choices of respondents who selected former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, who have not ruled out bids but are considered unlikely to run.

With Palin and Giuliani out of the picture, Rep. Ron Paul, R-Tex., is third at 13 percent, while Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., runs fourth with 10 percent. No other candidate earned more than four percent, and 17 percent of respondents said they were undecided.

Perry, who now may be considered the national frontrunner, runs strongest among older and Southern Republicans, earning nearly 40 percent of the vote among those groups. He also leads by a wide margin among those Republicans identify as conservatives. Even among liberal and moderate Republicans, Perry (17 percent) and Romney (21 percent) are virtually tied.

Meanwhile, Bachmann's fourth-place showing indicates that she received little if any national bounce from her victory earlier this month in a key straw poll of Iowa Republicans. Regionally, Bachmann is strongest in the Midwest (15 percent), but she still trails Perry (23 percent), Romney (20 percent) and Paul (18 percent) in that part of the country.

Gallup previously reported that Perry's name recognition has been rising -- with no noticeable drag on his favorability.

But Perry's resounding debut in the Republican field is not a guaranteed indicator of success: Former Sen. Fred Thompson, R-Tenn., was a strong second to Giuliani upon entering the 2008 race, and retired General Wesley Clark led the first Gallup poll of the 2004 Democratic race after he announced his candidacy.

The Gallup poll was conducted Aug. 17-21, surveying 1,040 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. The margin of error is +/- 3.0 percent.

Mock Twitter accounts are nothing new, but it's not always clear who is behind them. The liberal blog BlueMassGroup has a theory about who is running @CrazyKhazei, an account that, well, makes fun of Massachusetts Democratic Senate candidate Alan Khazei.

The description on @CrazyKhazei's Twitter page: "I'm a community organizer. I got crushed by Martha Coakley in the 2009 US Senate primary. I'm running because we need more Democrats in the MA delegation."

So, you get the idea.

A Bay State Democrat spotted a curious Tuesday tweet from Sen. Scott Brown, R-Mass., adviser Eric Fehrnstrom that has since been deleted. "I'm excited to announce that Cindy Creem is the newest hire at my charity, Be the Change #mapoli #masen," Fehrnstorm tweeted. BlueMassGroup has a screenshot of the tweet. It's strange, because Creem is a Democratic state senator who just announced her support for Khazei.

Fehrnstrom didn't immediately respond to a request for comment from Hotline On Call. Ben Smith notes the website crazykhazei.com is registered to Brown's new media consultant.

For the record, @CrazyKhazei's latest tweet at the time of this posting: "I just googled @ericfehrn and that guy is a loser."

Just under six weeks from the October 4 election in West Virginia's special gubernatorial election, acting Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin is launching his first television ad of the general election. The ad, which will start airing statewide this week, keeps the focus squarely on fiscal issues.

The ad touts West Virginia's balanced budget and surplus. "Tomblin cut government spending. And vetoed a plan to double driver's fees. The food tax will be cut again in January. And business taxes will be cut to encourage new jobs," say the ad's narrators.

"I believe the best way to stimulate job growth is to cut taxes," the conservative Democrat says.

"More jobs. Lower taxes. Tomblin for governor," the ad concludes.

Tomblin consistently led the crowded field during the Democratic primary, and was able to run a positive ad campaign while some of his competitors went negative. His general election opponent, Republican businessman Bill Maloney, has run a pair of introductory ads since the primary. Tomblin is favored in the general election, and may be able to duplicate his ad strategy from the primary if the race doesn't get close.

Watch the full ad after the jump.

David Letterman had some fun with reaction to the earthquake that shook the East Coast on Tuesday, joking that New York City Major Michael Bloomberg was found "standing under his desk" at city hall.

"They traced the epicenter of the earthquake to Gov. Chris Christie's aerobics class," Letterman said.

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 2:06 where MSNBC's Rachel Maddow tells Letterman how the country would be different if Sen. John McCain were president.

Take our late-night poll after the jump...

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Hanabusa says no thanks to a Senate bid, while an adviser to Tommy Thompson has harsh words for Mark Neumann. Meanwhile, Maffei eyes a return to Congress while Mitt Romney snags a former TPaw supporter. Here's today's rundown:

10) Politics and poetry: The Nebraska Democratic Party is running similar ads in the Lincoln Journal Star and Omaha World-Herald that hit Republican Senate candidate Jon Bruning, the state's Attorney General. One ad blasts Bruning's record as AG, and references his recent comment comparing welfare recipients to raccoons. "Oh wily, crafty Bruning/Raccoon-like ... that is he/Collecting a million dollars/For an office he barely sees!" says the ad running in the Journal Star. You can see a copy of that ad here.

9) An internal poll conducted by the Feldman Group for the campaign of Rep. Brad Sherman, D-Calif., shows him leading in the new 30th District against Republican Mark Reed and Democratic Rep. Howard Berman in a three way all-party primary race. Sherman takes 42 percent in the poll, while Reed is at 26 percent and Berman is at 17 percent. The poll also shows Sherman leading Berman 51-24 percent in a head-to-head matchup.

It's a clear message from team Sherman that Berman should look elsewhere to run. Berman is the powerful ranking Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee.

8) The Texas Tribune reported Tuesday that wealthy Republican Rep. Michael McCaul is exploring a run for retiring Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison's seat, and could spend millions of his own fortune on the race. But Roll Call reported later Tuesday that it doesn't appear likely McCaul will run.

7) A rematch is in the making in the district that featured one of 2010's most competitive House races. Former Rep. Dan Maffei, D-N.Y., plans to run for his old seat in the 25th District seat against Republican Rep. Ann Marie Buerkle, the Syracuse Post-Standard reports.

Rep. Colleen Hanabusa, D-Hawaii, will not make a bid for retiring Sen. Daniel Akaka's seat in 2012, and will instead run for reelection in the 1st District, where former GOP Rep. Charles Djou has already announced he is running.

"After much thought and much reflection, I have determined that I can best serve Hawaii by seeking re-election for a second term in the U.S. House of Representatives," Hanabusa said in a statement, according to Honolulu Civil Beat.

Hanabusa's decision is a boon for Democratic Rep. Mazie Hirono, who is running against former Rep. Ed Case in the Senate primary. Had Hanabusa run for the the Senate, the centrist Case would have been the likely beneficiary of Hanabusa and Hirono splitting the liberal vote.

The 1st District congresswoman's decision also means an almost certain rematch is in the works in the between Djou and and Hanabusa, who faced off twice in 2010. Djou won a three-way, winner-take-all special election last year in HI-01, due to vote splitting between Case and Hanabusa, only to lose the seat in a one-on-one general election showdown against Hanabusa.

Updated at 11:13 p.m.

Hattiesburg Mayor Johnny DuPree defeated attorney and businessman Bill Luckett Tuesday to win the Democratic nomination in Mississippi's gubernatorial race. With 67 percent of precincts reporting, DuPree leads Luckett 55 percent to 45 percent, according to the Associated Press.

With the victory, DuPree becomes the first African-American candidate to win the gubernatorial nomination of a major party in the state's history. Throughout the primary and runoff campaigns, DuPree emphasized his record of job creation as mayor, while Luckett played up his status as the only non-politician left in the race after the primary.

"The Democratic Governors Association congratulates Mayor Dupree on his historic victory tonight," said Democratic Governors Association chairman Martin O'Malley. "He has helped move Mississippi forward by becoming the first African-American to run for governor on a major party ticket. We look forward to working with his campaign and Mississippi Democrats in the coming months."

DuPree will face Lt. Gov. Phil Bryant, the Republican nominee, in the November 8 general election. Bryant is considered a heavy favorite to succeed Gov. Haley Barbour.

"Unfortunately, Johnny DuPree supports policies that will hurt job creators and cost Mississippi hundreds of millions of dollars," said Republican Governors Association executive director Phil Cox. "Phil Bryant is the only candidate voters can trust to build upon the progress Mississippi has made over the last eight years."

DuPree prevailed despite a serious fundraising disadvantage. According to disclosure reports released last week, Luckett spent more than twice as much money on his campaign as DuPree since January.

"I have come to know Mayor DuPree well. I regard him as a friend and someone who loves this great state as I do," said Luckett in a statement. "He has showcased his leadership credentials. Just look at Hattiesburg. He has showcased his desire to serve ALL Mississippians. Mayor DuPree can lead us into the future. He is a fellow Mississippian who deserves and has earned my support and he's got it. Tonight, we stand with Mayor DuPree as he launches his campaign for Governor of Mississippi."

DuPree and Luckett met in a runoff for the nomination Tuesday because no candidate in the four-person Democratic field received a majority of the votes in the August 2 primary. DuPree finished first with 43 percent, followed by Luckett with 39 percent.

Conservative Utah Rep. Jason Chaffetz's decision not to challenge Republican Sen. Orrin Hatch in the Republican Senate primary is forcing conservative groups to rethink their strategy on how to defeat the six-term senator.

The two conservative groups leading the charge against Hatch are still making the Utah Senate race a priority even without Chaffetz, but now they're searching for candidates.

State Sen. Dan Liljenquist has received the most focus since Chaffetz announced he wouldn't be taking on Hatch, but he hasn't yet committed to running. Liljenquist, has won support from conservatives for reforming the state pension system and tackling Medicaid. But his record isn't without issues that some conservatives see as problematic.

"I like Dan. I don't want to be throwing darts at him ... [immigration] is just not a passionate issue for him and he hasn't ever really been on that side, and so that is something that is concerning to a lot of the conservative people here in Utah," said Utah Tea Party organizer David Kirkham.

Aside from Liljenquist, another name being tossed around is Saratoga Springs Mayor Mia Love, the first African-American woman to be elected mayor in Utah. "Right now the race is pretty much wide open," Kirkham said. He added the he is even considering a possible campaign against Hatch.

"The thought hadn't crossed my mind, but I don't know," Kirkham said. "It is a possibility that I would be considering it, but that's about all I can say."

Meanwhile, Hatch has been coalescing conservative support of his own. He's been endorsed by conservative radio hosts Sean Hannity and Mark Levin. He's also reached out to state Tea Party organizers, and even hired one as a paid staffer on his campaign. Even Sarah Palin has said nice things about him. But among the hundreds of party activists who will ultimately decide whether Hatch will survive at the state convention, such national nods have only a minimal impact.

In her new book, "Troublemaker: Let's Do What It Takes To Make America Great Again" (St. Martin's Press), 2010 Delaware Senate nominee Christine O'Donnell recounts her childhood, her rise through the state political scene, her ill-fated Senate bids and, yes, her "I'm not a witch" television ad.

According to the book jacket, "O'Donnell's message isn't slick and doesn't have to dance between raindrops to keep from offending a big donor. ... Troublemaker is Christine O'Donnell's story, and the story of America today."

The Hotline relied on the time-honored practice of using the "excerpt lottery," in which page numbers are chosen based upon recent winning lottery numbers from various states. The results:

"You might wonder: Why write a book at all? And why now? Well, first and foremost, I'm writing this book because I now have a platform. That's one of the silver linings of all the fanfare that surrounded my race. ... Win or lose, folks seem to want to hear what you have to say -- so here I am, saying it, as long as I have your attention. Not because I'm so full of myself to think I've lived a book-worthy life, nor do I think that the nuts and bolts of my background are of interest to anyone outside my family, my close circle of friends, or my most ardent supporters" -- p. 005 (Ga.'s "Cash 3 Midday," 8/18).

"My heart and my gut and my prayers were all telling me I was meant to buy a house in Delaware" -- p. 133 (La.'s "Pick 3," 8/14).

"What the heck is autotuning?" -- p. 130 (N.J.'s "Pick 3 Midday," 8/17).

"It's not like this waffling is unknown in politics, but usually wafflers ... well they waffle"-- p. 315 (Ga.'s "Cash 3 Evening," 8/12).

"As I looked up from the newspaper for a moment, I made eye contact with the man seated next to me. He smiled and said, 'You read the paper quite passionately.' We both laughed, and struck up a conversation" -- p. 191 (Mass.'s "Numbers Game," 8/17).

President Obama is making his debut this cycle in a Wisconsin Senate race television ad.

But not in a good way.

The Club For Growth, a fiscally conservative organization that has worked actively to discredit former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson's record in the lead-up to a likely Senate run, is out with a new television ad that ties the former GOP governor of Wisconsin to President Obama's health care measure.

"When it comes to ObamaCare, there's this," says the narrator of the ad. The spot goes onto include footage of Obama saying: "Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger of California and New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg came out in support of reform ... as does Republican Tommy Thompson, a former Wisconsin Governor."

In 2009, Thompson endorsed a health care bill in the Senate that was an early version of the what eventually passed. But he has pushed back against conservative criticism that he was for the law, pointing to speeches he has delivered in opposition against it.

When asked in May by Hotline On Call about Thompson's support of Democrats' health care bill, National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman John Cornyn said "everybody who runs in elections has pluses and minuses and you've got to deal with those in the context of the primary ... I think there are gonna be plenty of other good candidates." Cornyn also said that Thompson "would obviously be a strong candidate" and is "very well known."

The Club says the ad will begin running Wednesday on Fox News throughout Wisconsin. When asked about the size of the buy, Club spokesman Barney Keller would only say it is "substantial." While he has not officially announced he is running, Thompson is gearing up for a likely Senate bid, announcing the co-chairmen of his campaign last week.

Mitt Romney is poised to repeat his winning performance in 2008 in the Michigan Republican presidential primary, according to a new poll of likely primary voters in the state Romney's father, George, once governed.

Romney leads Texas Gov. Rick Perry, 32 to 17 percent. The EPIC-MRA poll surveyed a relatively small sample size, but Perry's strong second-place showing in a state outside his natural base across the South is notable.

Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., was third at 12 percent, while former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin all tied for fourth at 5 percent. Rep. Thaddeus McCotter, R-Mich., earned just one percent of the vote in his home state; of all the candidates tested on his home turf, McCotter had the lowest name-identification, as nearly half of Republican voters said they didn't recognize his name.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Chaffetz's surprise decision not to challenge Hatch is good news for the incumbent, but he isn't out of the woods yet. Amodei and Marshall clash over Libya in their latest NV-02 debate, while Bill Owens isn't quite ready to sign off on Obama just yet. And could you fit Jennifer Aniston's old house into Romney's new one? Here's today's rundown:

10) Vanity Fair has some fun with the news that Mitt Romney is planning to bulldoze his 3,009-square-foot La Jolla home and replace it with am 11,000+-square-foot structure. Among the things Romney could fit in his new House, according to VF: Jennifer Aniston's old house and the world's largest whale.

9) The AFL-CIO is forming a super PAC. Among other things, the move would help steer more of labor's money to state legislative battles.

8) Rep. Bill Owens, D-N.Y., is declining to immediately endorse President Obama for re-election in 2012, saying he'll have to "wait and see."

7) Georgia Republicans released a new Congressional map Monday that draws Rep. John Barrow, D-Ga., out of his Savannah home base. President Obama carried Barrow's current district with 54 percent of the vote; the newly-drawn 12th District would only have given Obama 40 percent of the vote, according to GOP estimates. Barrow, though, tells the Atlanta Journal-Constitution he's still running.

David Letterman has a fatwa issued on him, "They say the guy that issued the fatwa is an internet jihadist ... And I said, 'Well heck, who said Obama isn't creating jobs.'"

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 1:50 when Vice President Biden presents Mongolia with a horse.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump!

It's election day again Tuesday in Mississippi as the Democratic runoff pits Hattiesburg Mayor Johnny DuPree against businessman Bill Luckett three weeks after the primary -- and it's unclear who has the advantage. The winner will face Republican Lt. Gov. Phil Bryant in the general election to replace Gov. Haley Barbour.

In the primary, DuPree finished with 43 percent of the Democratic vote to Luckett's 39 percent. There hasn't been any polling in the race, and observers consider the match-up to be a toss-up.

During the run-off campaign, DuPree and Luckett have largely refrained from taking shots at one another, choosing instead to tout their own records and, in Luckett's case, criticize Bryant.

Luckett has spent the last three weeks billing himself as the only non-politician left in the race; Dupree and Bryant both have long careers as elected officials. Lucket has played up his role in the revitalization of the city of Clarksdale and promised to use his business acumen to turn around the state government. He has also used his deeper pockets to his advantage in the campaign. Over the course of the race, Luckett has spent more than $1 million, while Dupree spent just under $500,000, according to financial disclosures released last week.

The speculation can end: Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis., issued a statement Monday saying he is not running for president.

"I sincerely appreciate the support from those eager to chart a brighter future for the next generation. While humbled by the encouragement, I have not changed my mind, and therefore I am not seeking our party's nomination for President," Ryan said in a statement provided to the Weekly Standard

Last week, the Weekly Standard reported that Ryan was reconsidering a presidential campaign, chatting with advisers and receiving encouragement from high-profile Republican leaders, like Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush.

Ryan has long been seen as one of the party's sharpest policy wonks, and his proposed entitlement reforms in the House Republicans' budget won many admirers on the right.
But despite his growing profile, Ryan doesn't have a national political organization at the ready, and, as a member of the House, would have to overcome high hurdles to be considered a serious presidential contender.

Ryan's departure leaves only a few candidates left as possible late entrances in the field - former Alaska governor Sarah Palin, former New York Ciry mayor Rudy Giuliani and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who has also denied any interest in mounting a race.

The top four Republican presidential candidates are running neck-and-neck with President Obama in national general election matchups, according to a new Gallup poll released Monday.

The poll, conducted last week as Obama's approval rating cratered around 40 percent, shows Obama leading Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., 48 to 44 percent, and Rep. Ron Paul, R-Tex., 47 to 45 percent.

Texas Gov. Rick Perry ties the president at 47 percent each, and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney leads Obama, 48 to 46 percent.

At this early stage of the campaign, Republicans are largely lined up behind their candidates to a greater extent than Democrats are behind the incumbent president.

Republicans are firmly behind Perry (92 percent) and Romney (91 percent). Bachmann (86 percent) and Paul (82 percent) perform slightly worse among members of their own party.

But except for Paul, all of the GOP candidates perform better among members of their party than Obama does among Democrats. Obama earns between 84 and 86 percent among Democrats across the four matchups.

The door is officially shut.

Rep. Allen West, R-Fla., announced Monday that he will run for reelection to the House rather than pursue a Senate bid.

"Over the last several weeks, numerous leaders of the Florida Republican Party, including current and past elected officials, have spoken to me about the race for the United States Senate. Out of respect, I was willing to listen," said West in a statement.

"I have been given one of the highest honors to serve in the House of Representatives and I will continue to serve the citizens in that capacity. I will not seek the Republican nomination for the United States Senate in 2012. With regard to my future, the only goal I have is to do my very best to represent the constituents of the Congressional District and to restore the exceptionalism of our nation."

West had stirred talk that he might jump into the already-crowded Republican Senate primary when he told WPTV Channel 5's "To The Point" that the door was "cracked very slightly" to the option of running.

He then told reporters on August 15, "I cracked it open enough so that people can slip a note under the door and I can read the note. And I can write back on the note 'probably not.'"

The Republican field currently includes former state House Majority Leader Adam Hasner and former Sen. George LeMieux as well as ret. Army Col. Mike McCalister and former Ruth's Craig CEO Chris Miller -- but some observers expect it to grow larger before it's set.

Updated at 6:30 p.m.

Rep. Jason Chaffetz, R-Utah, announced today that he will not challenge Sen. Orrin Hatch, R-Utah, ending months of speculation while he appeared to be gearing up for a run.

"Ultimately, I can spend the next 15 months doing my job, or I can spend the next 15 months campaigning to do Senator Hatch's," Chaffetz wrote in a letter.

"Despite being tempted to compete for the privilege of serving in the U.S. Senate -- and being convinced I could win -- I won't allow a fight for that seat to distract me from what I was sent to Washington to do. I was sent here to help clean up the financial mess left by decades of fiscal mismanagement. That is a battle that cannot wait. It's a battle that must be fought and won in the House and in the Senate."

Chaffetz passing on the race has come as a surprise: he has said more than once that he is leaning toward a Senate run, and sounded like a candidate for the seat. He has frequently gone after Hatch on a range of issues (the Troubled Asset Relief Program, bailing out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, No Child Left Behind, and the DREAM Act, to name a few). And has recently been holding town hall meetings outside his district, further stoking speculation that he would jump into the Senate race.

Hatch has been on the receiving end of tea party anger, and over the last few months has been trying to woo conservative voters. He is considered vulnerable to a primary challenge -- particularly one from the conservative Chaffetz. The Club for Growth had also publicly urged Chaffetz to run.

"We wish Congressman Chaffetz the best in his congressional campaign and in his continued service as one of Utah's representatives," said Dave Hansen, Hatch's campaign manager, in a statement. Senator Hatch looks forward to continuing to work together as a delegation to find solutions to the critical issues facing Utah and our nation."

Utah state Sen. Dan Liljenquist is still considering a primary challenge to Hatch, and could get renewed attention with Chaffetz's decision.

Sen. Debbie Stabenow, D-Mich., has a nine-point lead over her chief Republican rival, even as the percentage of Michigan voters who think she is doing a good job falls, according to a new poll released Monday.

The poll, conducted by Lansing, Mich.-based EPIC-MRA, shows Stabenow leading former Rep. Pete Hoekstra, R-Mich., 47 to 38 percent. Hoekstra retired from the House after his unsuccessful bid for the Republican nomination for governor in 2010. Fifteen percent of likely voters were undecided.

Stabenow is bolstered by independents, among whom she leads, 45 to 27 percent. Among men, the two candidates are tied, but Stabenow leads among women, 50 to 34 percent.

Stabenow's nine-point lead is up from a more narrow, two-point advantage in February, when she led Hoekstra, 44 to 42 percent.

But Stabenow's personal and job ratings have taken a hit over the past few months. In May, 41 percent of likely voters rated her job performance as "excellent" or "pretty good," while 43 percent rated her "just fair" or "poor."

This should end the rumors, stoked by the Ohio Democratic Party and former Republican Secretary of State Ken Blackwell, that Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, could enter the Senate race: he endorsed Treasurer Josh Mandel today.

"Our nation's AAA credit rating was downgraded because liberals like Sherrod Brown, Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi think we can borrow and spend like there's no tomorrow," said Jordan in a email from Mandel's campaign. "In order to stop the out-of-control borrowing and spending before it bankrupts our country, we need to change control of the Senate and the White House. I believe Treasurer Josh Mandel is a fiscal conservative who is committed to changing the deficit culture in Washington. Josh understands that the federal government should balance its budget just like families and small businesses have to do every day - just as Josh did as State Treasurer."

Blackwell -- who mulled a bid of his own before deciding against it in June -- had publicly encouraged Jordan to run, saying in early August that he should consider running if Republicans try to cut out his district.

Mandel has also been endorsed by the Club for Growth, Sen. Jim DeMint, R-S.C., and Sen. Rob Portman, R-Ohio. He still faces ex-state Sen. Kevin Coughlin (R) in the primary.

Former Rep. Chris Shays, R-Conn., told Greenwich Time Monday that he's entering the race for retiring Sen. Joe Lieberman's, ID-Conn, seat.

Shays was reinstated late Friday as a voter in Bridgeport. "I did. Betsi and I are excited to be back in Connecticut," Shays told the paper. "These are all the steps that I am taking so that I can have the opportunity to run for Senate. I hope to be on the ballot next November."

The former congressman's decision was widely expected, and former World Wrestling Entertainment CEO Linda McMahon is also expected to enter the race soon. A primary between the two could be highly contested: McMahon spent $50 million on her unsuccessful 2010 Senate bid, and could presumably spend a great deal of personal wealth on another run. Shays was a moderate Republican in Congress who could appeal to independent voters. He lost his seat in the Democratic wave year of 2008.

The Democratic primary field includes Rep. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., former Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz, and state Rep. William Tong.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. John Conyers gets welcome news over the weekend, while Democrats are scrambling to hold onto Weiner's seat. Huntsman goes on the attack, as Pataki prepares to enter the presidential race. And Mitt Romney is looking to supersize his California mansion. Here's today's rundown:

10) Supersized: Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is working on plans to nearly quadruple the size of his $12 million oceanfront home in La Jolla, California.

Romney has filed an application with the city to bulldoze his 3,009-square-foot home and replace it with a 11,062-square-foot building, the San Diego Union-Tribune reports.

9) Good to be AG: Washington state Attorney General Rob McKenna, a Republican candidate for the 2012 gubernatorial race, has long enjoyed the use of a car supplied and subsidized by the Honda Auto Center of Bellevue, whose president is a substantial contributor, the Seattle Post-Intelligencer reports.

Almost eight years ago, when McKenna first started running for AG, Honda Auto Center first made an in-kind contribution of a leased Honda car to his campaign. McKenna is upfront about his long-running perk. Last Thursday night, after speaking to a conservative group: "We lease a car from Bellevue Honda: They donate up to the contribution limit -- which is $3,200 -- and we pay the rest," he said. "We pay the market rate, which I think is $450 a month."

8) The New York Times is sniffing a possible upset in next month's special election to fill the seat of former Rep. Anthony Weiner, D-N.Y. The paper of record finds that despite the district's deep blue roots, President Obama isn't particularly popular there, anymore.

7) Taking one for the team: Freshman Rep. Hansen Clarke, D-Mich., agreed to swap districts with longtime Rep. John Conyers, D-Mich., who was facing the prospect of a difficult re-election bid in his newly-drawn district. Clarke will now be running in a more suburban district, which also includes the city of Detroit, but faces the likelihood of a serious primary challenge.

Conyers' new district includes his base on Detroit's West Side, and contains more African-American voters than the newly-drawn 14th District.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee narrowly outraised its Republican counterpart in the month of July, according to Federal Election Commission filings. The Democrats' House campaign arm brought in $4.02 million for the month, compared to the National Republican Congressional Committee's $3.88 million.

The NRCC still has more money in its campaign account, and less debt than the DCCC. To start August, the NRCC has $11.29 million to spend, while the DCCC has $8.07 million in the bank.

The DCCC has now paid off most of the $19.6 million debt it held at the beginning of the cycle, and is just $3.99 million in the red. The NRCC holds $2.75 million in debt.

Rep. Peter DeFazio, D-Ore., thinks President Obama would face a difficult time winning liberal Oregon if he were to face a mainstream Republican, because the president hasn't demonstrated any interest in standing up for his campaign promises.

"Fight? I don't think it's a word in his vocabulary," DeFazio said in an interview with Portland-based KGW-TV. DeFazio criticized Obama for failing to allow the Bush tax cuts to expire, something he promised to do in 2008.

"He repeatedly said that. Then the Republicans telegraphed to him they were going to use a fake crisis over the debt limit in order to muscle some major spending reductions or other things on to him. And that was in December. And what happens? Suddenly he flip flops and concedes everything to the Republicans," DeFazio said.

And DeFazio isn't certain his state, which has turned increasingly blue in recent years, will stay that way assuming Obama faces a Republican "who is a little bit toward the middle of the road."

"I believe Oregon is very much in play. I mean we are one of the harder hit states in the union, particularly my part of the state. I've just done six town hall meetings, have seven to go but people are shaking their heads and saying 'I don't know if I'd vote for him again,'" DeFazio said. "One guy asked me, 'Give me 25 words what [Obama's] about and what he's done for me.' I'm like, 'It could have been worse.'"

The Democratic National Committee's torrid fundraising pace after President Obama announced he would run for re-election slowed dramatically in July, according to new reports filed with the Federal Election Commission.

The DNC raised $6.9 million last month, the new reports show. That's down from the $12.2 million the committee raised in June, the $10.5 million raised in May and the $14 million raised in April, when Obama said he would seek a second term.

The slower fundraising pace came in a month in which Washington was consumed by debate over raising the debt ceiling. During that debate, Obama canceled or delayed a number of fundraisers, leading some senior advisors to worry to the media that their totals for the third quarter would not match the combined $86 million Obama's campaign and the DNC raised between April 1 and June 30.

(It's worth noting that professional fundraisers will admit both July and August are lousy months for fundraising, given people's vacation schedules)

A joint Obama-DNC account contributed just $2.2 million to the party's coffers this month. The party paid down about $600,000 in debt, but Democrats still owe about $11.2 million to creditors. The DNC has $20.1 million in the bank.

The Republican National Committee, meanwhile, raised about $6.1 million in the month of July, a GOP source told The Hotline. The RNC has $7.6 million in the bank, about $300,000 more than it had last month.

That figure could have been higher, but the RNC spent big bucks on a four-week advertising campaign on behalf of Republican state senators in Wisconsin who faced recall elections; two Republicans lost those elections, but the party kept control of the state Senate, a key victory after anger over Gov. Scott Walker's revision of the state's collective bargaining laws.

The beleaguered RNC found itself saddled with more than $24 million in debt after the 2010 elections; that debt has been cut to just less than $17 million, though it still presents a huge obstacle. The committee, the GOP source said, is bent on cutting any wasteful spending it can in hopes of reducing the debt as much as possible.

What we at The Hotline learned this week:

-- Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty's early exit from the presidential race, Rep. Michele Bachmann's, R-Minn., fast rise and the instant success of Texas Gov. Rick Perry say a lot about what GOP voters are looking for in a candidate. For conservatives in 2012, aggressive and passionate are in; pragmatic and reserved are out. Maybe that's why the chatter about New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie won't go away.

-- Sen. Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., must be breathing a sigh of relief after former Pawlenty definitively said he wouldn't challenge her in 2012. After months of campaigning hard in a failed presidential bid, some time away from the trail and a 2014 run against the less-popular-than-Klobuchar Sen. Al Franken, D-Minn., may look more appealing to Pawlenty.

-- While Republicans in Wisconsin have claimed victory for holding onto control of the state Senate in the face of an unprecedented recall effort, one prominent conservative seems to have interpreted the recall results a bit differently. Just one day after Democrats prevailed in the final two recall elections -- defending two of their own seats -- Ohio Gov. John Kasich sought out a compromise with union leaders on his own controversial new law that restricts collective bargaining rights for public employees. Unions and their allies may have fallen one seat short of toppling the GOP majority in Wisconsin, but they seem to have, at least in part, convinced Kasich that the winds of public opinion may have shifted across the Rust Belt.

-- Former Florida State House Majority Leader Adam Hasner, who has positioned himself as far to the right as just about any Senate hopeful in the country, has some work to do to consolidate conservative support in the GOP primary. Hasner has tried to portray the contest as a re-do of 2010, with former Sen. George LeMeiux (R) playing the role of his old boss, Charlie Crist, and Hasner as Sen. Marco Rubio, R. But speculation is swirling that tea party favorite Rep. Allen West, R-Fla., might enter the race, and Club for Growth President Chris Chocola sounded underwhelmed with the current crop of GOP contenders in his sitdown with Hotline On Call this week.

If Sarah Palin isn't running for president, she's doing a good imitation.

On Friday afternoon, the 2008 GOP vice presidential nominee posted a slickly-produced video on the website of her political action committee. It touts a Labor Day weekend appearance she's scheduled to make in Iowa, the state where the first votes of the presidential campaign will be cast early next year by caucus-goers.

The video features a montage of clips from her recent visit to the Iowa State Fair, including one of Palin sounding like she's warming up for a run:

"It's time that this country is put back on the right track," she says. "We're ready for some positive change."

The video release comes on the same day that Palin spokesman Tim Crawford confirmed to National Journal that a tea party rally where she is scheduled to speak over Labor Day has been relocated to accommodate larger crowds.

The rally will be held at the National Balloon Classic field in Indianola, just outside of Des Moines. According to Adam Flack, a spokesman for the Wells Fargo Arena in Des Moines, discussions had been underway to move the rally to the downtown arena before organizers decided on an outdoor venue.

Watch the video here and decide for yourself: Is she in?

Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, D-Ariz., has asked the Federal Election Commission to allow her to use campaign funds to make security improvements to her home after she was the target of a January assassination attempt.

Giffords was shot in the head at a "Congress On Your Corner" event in Tucson on January 8, and has continued to undergo rehabilitation after she was seriously wounded. She made her first appearance in the House during the debt ceiling vote earlier this month, met with tears and cheers by her colleagues.

In an August 17 letter to the FEC, her campaign chairman Michael McNulty asks for an expedited advisory opinion so that the recovering congresswoman can make security improvements as recommended by the Capitol Police to her Houston home where she is undergoing treatment at Memorial Hermann Hospital. Giffords and her husband, astronaut Mark Kelly, have a home there as well as in Arizona.

President Obama's advisers and the two governors in charge of their parties' political fortunes will face off on the Sunday shows this week.

Obama campaign adviser Robert Gibbs and Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels will head to "Meet the Press." David Axelrod will share CNN's "State of the Union" with Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley and Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell -- the chairmen, respectively, of the Democratic Governors Association and the Republican Governors Association.

Axelrod will also be on "This Week," along with former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman. Former Bush adviser Karl Rove and former White House Deputy Press Secretary Bill Burton are both involved in outside groups known as "super PACs." They'll appear on "Fox News Sunday."

Former Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pa. will be part of "Fox News Sunday" 2012 candidate series.

Also on Fox, former DNC chairman Terry McAuliffe, former RNC chairman Ed Gillespie, Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., and Moody's Mark Zandi tackle President Obama's new jobs plan.

Check out the full listings after the jump.

Congress's newest member, Rep. Janice Hahn, D-Calif., may find herself running against another Democratic incumbent next year thanks to redistricting in her state, but a survey conducted for her campaign suggests she's the early favorite in the race.

Hahn, who was elected in July to succeed former Rep. Jane Harman, D-Calif., saw her Los Angeles-based district immediately sliced up by the state's independent redistricting commission, but she signaled after the maps were approved this week that she would run next year in the new 44th District, where she resides. But that district is also where Rep. Laura Richardson, D-Calif., had said she'll run and where Democratic Assemblyman Isadore Hall had already launched a campaign.

A poll conducted for Hahn's campaign in the new district by Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz & Associates, the Democratic firm that polled for her in her special election victory last month, shows Hahn with a nearly two-to-one edge over Richardson. Hahn leads Richardson, 47 percent to 24 percent. Hall earns just 7 percent, while 22 percent remain undecided.

In a head-to-head matchup - which is likely to happen in a runoff under the state's new open primary rules - Hahn still has the clear advantage, leading Richardson 47 percent to 26 percent, with 27 percent undecided. If she goes up against Hall, Hahn leads 53 percent to 17 percent.

The new district includes bases of support for each candidate, but Hispanics are the largest ethnic group, making up 68 percent of the population. One reason Richardson presumably chose to run here instead of the neighboring 47th District is it has a higher African-American percentage (17 percent) and is far more Democratic. Both Richardson and Hall are black while Hahn is white.

The House Majority PAC is launching a second wave of TV ads against Republicans, targeting Reps. Dan Lungren, R-Calif., and Sean Duffy, R-Wis.

Part of their six-figure cable ad buy this recess, last week the Democratic super PAC also launched ads against Reps. Tim Griffin, R-Ark., Scott Tipton, R-Colo., and Chip Cravaack, R-Minn.

"Whether it's voting for tax loopholes to keep corporate profits sky high, protecting profits for companies that ship jobs to China, or ending Medicare as we know it, House Republicans have plenty to answer for back home this August recess," said House Majority PAC executive director Alixandria Lapp. "House Majority PAC will continue holding House Republicans accountable for their extremist agenda."

(RELATED: Who Are the Biggest Super PAC Contributors in 2011?)

The ad against Lungren opens with images of a coastal mansion and private plane. "Maybe you live here, or own one of these - if so, Congressman Dan Lungren juts voted to give you a big tax cut, and for tax loopholes to keep corporate profits sky high." says the announcer. "If you have to make millions to get our congressman's attention, it's time to find a new congressman."

Both targets face tough re-election campaigns. Lungren's difficulties are likely to be exacerbated by the radically-redrawn House districts in California, whereas Wisconsin Republicans were able to shore up Duffy's district to some degree during redistricting in that state.

Watch the full ad after the jump.

Stephen Colbert wants a more inspirational president, "Meanwhile, what is our president doing? Riding on a bus ... The only way Vladimir Putin would be seen riding on a bus is if he trapped it in the wild and then tamed it."

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 1:10 when President Obama throws a pie at a puma.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump!

Former Sen. Russ Feingold, D-Wis., won't try to get his old job back, he's telling supporters in an email this morning.

The former three-term senator would have been a top candidate to replace retiring Sen. Herb Kohl, or to take on Gov. Scott Walker in a potential recall election. But Feingold will tell his fans he's more interested in his teaching job at Marquette Law School.

"After twenty-eight continuous years as an elected official ... I have found the past eight months to be an opportunity to look at things from a different perspective," Feingold said in the email, first reported by the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's Craig Gilbert. Feingold said he is "thoroughly enjoying the life of a private citizen."

Feingold's decision means Rep. Tammy Baldwin becomes Democrats' top choice for the seat. Republicans will likely face a primary battle between former Gov. Tommy Thompson and another candidate. Thompson has already picked out key advisors, though conservative groups like the Club for Growth want another Republican in the race.

Ex-Rep. Mark Neumann, state Assembly Speaker Jeff Fitzgerald and businessman Tim Michels have all indicated at least some interest in running for Kohl's open seat.

One of the most fun parts about covering politics in Washington is getting to know former Rep. Tom Davis, the Virginia Republican who left Congress after 2008.

Davis knows the nitty gritty of politics better than almost anyone. He can tell you where any given member of Congress in any district needs to do well in order to win another term, or who the only Republican to win a Democratic-held seat in the Reagan landslide in 1984 was (That would be Mitch McConnell).

And he has a colorful way of making his point. At a reporters' roundtable earlier today, Davis pointed to the three kinds of members in the House Republican Conference: Those in swing districts, who have to appeal to moderate and independent voters in order to win re-election; those in safe, heavily Republican districts who have to worry more about a challenge from the GOP base than from a Democrat; and those freshmen members of Congress who were elected to represent swing districts, but who vote with their more conservative colleagues without considering the political consequences.

To describe some of the more brash among that final group, Davis dropped this gem: "They went out and caught the bus, and it dropped them off in Washington."

Davis, who now heads the moderate Republican Main Street Partnership, had a larger point: That gerrymandering has made the vast majority of Democratic and Republican districts safe, and just a handful of seats remain truly competitive. That means most members of Congress have to be more worried about a challenge from their own bases than about a challenge from the opposite party.

That, in turn, disincentivizes compromise and promotes further divisions between the two parties, making actual accomplishments even more rare.

"We used to say there's no Democratic or Republican way to fix a pothole," Davis said. "But today, if you're a Republican, you want to privatize it. If you're a Democrat, you want a project labor agreement."

Taking the next step toward a Massachusetts Senate bid, Elizabeth Warren today filed paperwork to create an exploratory campaign committee, the Boston Globe reports.

Warren has also launched a campaign website.

The former Consumer Financial Protection Bureau special adviser has been on a "listening tour" of Massachusetts this week, meeting with Democratic activists around the state as she gears up for an expected entrance into the primary for the Democratic nomination to challenge Sen. Scott Brown, R-Mass., next fall. She has already hired consultants: Doug Rubin and Kyle Sullivan, both of whom previously worked with Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick.

Warren's anticipated candidacy is expected to shake up the crowded field, which currently features six Democratic hopefuls but no big-name contender. Warren, a progressive icon, should be able to raise money nationally -- the Progressive Change Campaign Committee has already raised $100,000 for a potential Warren campaign -- and she'll need to in order to compete with Brown's massive, $9.6 million war chest.

EMILY's List President Stephanie Schriock released a statement praising Warren.

"The EMILY's List community has been telling me loud and clear that they want Elizabeth Warren in the race to beat Scott Brown. Today, they got a little bit closer to getting their wish," said Schriock. "Elizabeth is strong, smart, and a dedicated fighter for working Americans. We'd love to see her take her talents to the U.S. Senate."

This post has been updated to reflect a change in the schedule of Guinta and Perry.

Freshman Rep. Frank Guinta, R-N.H., is being courted by two of the top presidential contenders in the first in the nation primary state.

Guinta, a former Manchester mayor, met on Tuesday with former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and met this morning with the race's newest entrant, Texas Gov. Rick Perry, according to a Republican source.

Guinta met with Romney for about 45 minutes on Tuesday at a Manchester restaurant, where they talked about New Hampshire strategy, and the neighboring former governor asked for his thoughts and input on the race.

Guinta was slated to meet with Perry at a Portsmouth restaurant this morning from 9:30 a.m. until 10 a.m., but due to a scheduling conflict, that's been pushed to later this afternoon. Guinta hasn't decided yet about endorsing in New Hampshire's primary.

Guinta's faced tough town halls lately over the budget and Medicare and is a top target for Democrats next year. Former Rep. Carol Shea Porter, D-N.H., is running again to avenge her loss last year, but she'll face a primary against former state party finance chairman Andrew Hosmer and DNC Committeewoman Joanne Dowdell.

Republicans point to Guinta's recent meetings as a sign of his strength with the GOP electorate, his accessibility with his constituents and the deep ties he still has as a former mayor.

Sorry, Florida Republicans: Club for Growth President Chris Chocola doesn't see anyone of Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., quality among the current crop of contenders vying for the right to face Sen. Bill Nelson next year.

"There's nobody there right now that we think is at the Rubio level," he said in an interview with Hotline On Call. Former state House Majority Leader Adam Hasner has tried to highlight his ties to Rubio and has been striving for conservative support. But Chocola may be more interested in Rep. Allen West; he said the Club would talk to the freshman Congressman if West decided to make the race.

But don't count on the Club getting involved if the candidate isn't right. "You have to have a candidate like a Rubio that warrants making that decision. We don't see anyone that's to the Rubio-caliber candidate," Chocola said.

Instead, the Club may turn their focus to Indiana and Utah, where Sens. Richard Lugar and Orrin Hatch want another term. The Club isn't enamored of either incumbent.

The group hasn't endorsed Indiana Treasurer Richard Mourdock, but Chocola said they were still in the "educational phase." He noted that Tea Party groups in Indiana were trying to organize behind one candidate.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Obama's Education Secretary goes on the attack against Perry, while Senate Democrats express anxiety that Obama's re-election campaign will hurt their fundraising efforts. Meanwhile, Thompson moves towards a Senate bid in Wisconsin while the first GOP challenger to Gabby Giffords emerges. And Missouri gubernatorial candidate Peter Kinder explains why he was in a pantless bar. Here's today's rundown:

11) One person who's very happy, according to NPR, at the thought of Texas Gov. Rick Perry becoming president? George W. Bush impersonator John Morgan.

Morgan: "I was laying in bed the other night, awake, saying my prayers and I said: "Lord, is there anything you want to tell me before I drift off?" And this thought came to my mind: "RickPerryImpersonator.com."

10) Missouri Lieutenant Gov. Peter Kinder talked to the St. Louis Post-Dispatch Wednesday about the controversy over why he was photographed recently with a former Penthouse Pet in a "pantless bar."

Kinder told the paper he met Tammy Chapman, then working as a stripper, in the 1990s, when he was in the state Senate. Kinder said they met at Diamond Cabaret where she worked, and that he came back about 10 more times. He said he had never engaged in behavior that violated the club's safety rules.

He compared his feeling toward Chapman to a line in a Dean Martin song, "Let's Be Friendly."

"'My what lovely scenery, cupid's own machinery,'" Kinder said, quoting from the song. "That is an innocent expression of romantic love -- romantic attraction, I should say -- that sort of captures the beginning of this. And then you realize that you are pursuing that in a strip club."

The only reason he was back there recently? "I felt the urge to use the bathroom and I was in the neighborhood."

9) Arizona state Sen. Frank Antenori has become the first Republican to formally move toward a potential bid in Rep. Gabrielle Giffords', D-Ariz., district. Antenori, who unsuccessfully ran in the 2006 GOP primary, has created a congressional exploratory committee and an official announcement is expected Monday, the Arizona Republic reports.

"I probably won't run if she runs, but I've got a feeling she's not running," Antenori said of Giffords. "I want to get them to make a decision here. I cannot allow the Democratic Party to create the perception that she is running as an effort to keep Republicans out of the race and inhibit us from raising money."

Stephen Colbert wants Colbert Super PAC to be Texas Gov. Rick Perry's "official, unofficial, non-connected, independent expenditure, all-you-can-eat money trough."

Today' Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 2:14, Jimmy Kimmel expects Perry to keep making controversial comments.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump!

Democrat Kate Marshall was on the attack early and often in her first faceoff against Republican Mark Amodei Wednesday night, pressing the issues of taxes and Medicare repeatedly in their first debate ahead of the September 13 special election in Nevada's 2nd District.

Amodei repeatedly jabbed back at Marshall's charges, but turned to his own credentials for the job as the answer to her attacks.

Independent candidate Helmuth Lehmann and Independent American Tim Fasano also participated in the hourlong debate, sponsored by the Veterans of Foreign Wars, but the real fireworks were between the two frontrunners to succeed now-Sen. Dean Heller, R-Nev.

Marshall began the debate touting her own work as state treasurer -- the same points national Republicans have repeatedly hit her for and tried to put the state's stagnant economy on her shoulders.

"As state treasurer I've invested your money. I've made money on your investments every single quarter," said Marshall, who also boasted of a jobs bill she pushed through the state legislature, getting the Reno Chamber of Commerce and the teachers' unions to work together.

Amodei continued to press his opposition to more taxes as part of a debt solution.

"I hope that you will seriously consider someone who doesn't think the government is too small," said Amodei, "who thinks we have enough taxing and spending."

Marshall pressed Amodei over a payroll tax increase he sponsored when he was in the state Senate -- another familiar refrain from her campaign. Amodei quickly shot back that he had done so as an alternative to a business income tax, and pointed out that Marshall was a registered lobbyist during that time and worked in favor of some of those same proposals.

This post has been updated to clarify the Club's position on primary challenges.

Club For Growth President Chris Chocola will keep a close eye on Rep. Fred Upton, R-Mich., when members of a Congressional "super committee" meet next month to identify potential spending cuts.

"We're off to a very slow start on House races because of redistricting," Chocola told Hotline On Call in an interview Wednesday. When asked whether there were any Republican House members they were looking at in terms of primary challenges, he answered that the Republican conference has gotten more conservative -- but that the Michigan Republican is someone he'll have his eye on as the super committee convenes.

"There are some folks who we don't think carry the pro-growth agenda," said Chocola. "A guy I watch all the time is Fred Upton. He's my greatest worry."

Chocola said that Upton "made a conversion a little bit to become chairman of the Energy and Commerce Committee," but that now that he's on the even more important supercommittee.

"He brought us the lightbulb and all that good stuff," said Chocola. "He's been around a long time and he has a long record, and it's not necessarily a conservative record."

The National Republican Congressional Committee is on the air again in the special election in Nevada's 2nd District, bringing their total ad buy there so far to nearly $345,000.

Their initial ad buy, from July 29 until August 11, was for $225,000, and now that's been extended through August 22 for another $116,000.

The NRCC's latest ad continues their assault on Democrat Kate Marshall over her time as state treasurer, seeking to tie the state's economic troubles to her in the run-up to the September 13 vote.

The 30-second spot repeats over and over a clip of Marshall saying, "I've taken this state through this fiscal crisis - steered it with a steady hand," while the screen points voters to the state's two credit downgrades, rising foreclosure rate and Marshall's support for the health care bill. The ad closes simply with a photo of Marshall with President Obama.

"The only place Kate Marshall steered the Nevada economy is straight off a cliff," said NRCC spokesman Tyler Houlton. "While Kate Marshall campaigns on her failed record as the state's top financial officer, Nevada working families and small businesses suffer from the highest unemployment and home foreclosure rates in America."

Both Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Bill Clinton have sent fundraising pleas on Marshall's behalf this week, while House Speaker John Boehner will headline a fundraiser for GOP nominee Mark Amodei this Friday.

Both Marshall and Amodei are set to meet for their first debate tonight at 10 p.m. ET. You can watch live here, and check Hotline On Call on Thursday for our full recap of the debate.

Watch the NRCC's full ad after the jump.

Former Massachusetts state Sen. Warren Tolman said today he would not run for the Democratic nomination to challenge Sen. Scott Brown, R-Mass., the Boston Globe reports.

"I am going to run, but I'm not going to run for the Senate," he said, joking, "I'm just going to continue my jogging routine." Tolman cited family reasons for his decision.

But Tolman, who had told the Globe in May that he was considering a bid, said he still thought a Democrat could beat Brown.

"Politically, I think this is an outstanding opportunity. I think Scott Brown is vulnerable. I think he has a glass jaw. I think he's never been vetted," he said. "If the right person runs, the Dems can win this seat back."

Despite passing on a presidential bid of his own, Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels still wants to play a role in the race -- by promoting the potential candidacy of Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis.

According to a report in The Weekly Standard, Ryan was originally urging Daniels to run for president, but ever since the Indiana governor decided against it, the tables have turned.

"I don't think it's a secret that he was strongly encouraging me to try. I've been strongly encouraging him to run as well," Daniels said. "He has all the qualities our party needs to be emphasizing in these elections."

Daniels rejected the notion that Ryan missed his chance to run by waiting too long, citing the instant buzz surrounding Texas Gov. Rick Perry's recently-launched campaign. "It's not too late. If it's not too late for Rick Perry, it's not to late for Paul," Daniels said. "I'm a more-the-merrier kind of guy about the primary field. Absolutely there's time."

Daniels isn't the only prominent Republican on the Ryan bandwagon. Former Florida governor Jeb Bush also boosted a possible Ryan candidacy, telling the Weekly Standard he would be a "formidable candidate."

"I admire his substance and energy. Win or lose, he would force the race to be about sustained, job-creating economic growth and the real policies that can achieve it," Bush said.

Ryan, a fiscal hawk, is one of the Republican Party's rising stars -- but has been maligned by liberals for his controversial budget proposal, which, among other things, would transform Medicare into a voucher program.

Democrats have attacked Ryan's plan, saying it would damage the country's safety net programs. Because the congressman's budget has become a major issue for Republican presidential candidates, and will likely serve as a topic of debate in the 2012 election, some conservatives have suggested there's no better candidate to challenge Obama than Ryan himself.

Daniels echoed that sentiment. "He can explain--and is willing to explain--in plain English why today's policies are a disaster for the middle class, and he has the smarts to go toe-to-toe with the people who are saying misleading things about the proposals that he's put out there," said the Indiana governor.

Former Speaker Newt Gingrich's presidential campaign is taking a West Coast swing next week, including traveling to the not-so-consequential primary state of Hawaii for two events.

The Republican's public schedule shows two stops on the island of Maui -- a Saturday visit with local GOP activists and a Monday visit to a prep school in Makawao -- with no publicly scheduled events in between.

Gingrich will stop in California on the way to the islands, and head back to New Hampshire after his brief vacation. But it's yet another deviation from the norm for a campaign that has already taken hits for Gingrich's Mediterranean cruise earlier this year.

Then again, Maui's a rich place. Perhaps Gingrich is headed out there to retire some of the $1 million in debt his campaign reported at the end of the second quarter.

Or maybe he's trolling for votes. Hawaii held a relatively late state convention in 2008, awarding every one of the state's delegates to presumptive nominee John McCain.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Democrats held both Wisconsin Senate seats in the final round of recalls. Meanwhile, Obama will give a major speech on jobs in September, Djou will run for the House in Hawaii, and Perry spends valuable time in New Hampshire. Here's today's rundown:

8) Some perspective for those who get angry when the president takes a vacation: John Adams once went to his farm in Massachusetts and didn't return to the capital for seven months.

7) Former Surgeon General Richard Carmona is considering a run as a Democrat for retiring Sen. Jon Kyl's, R-Ariz., seat. Carmona said numerous Democrats have encouraged him to run.

"I'm still trying to figure out whether it's the right thing for me. I enjoy public service. I enjoyed being surgeon general of the United States. I've worked in government at local, state and national levels. But I'm not sure if an elected position is the right thing for me," he said. "I've agreed to at least consider it."

Jon Stewart thinks Texas Gov. Rick Perry needs to dial back the Texas, "You're already at Yosemite Sam levels. You have to dial it back to Walker Texas Ranger."

Conan O'Brien on Vice President Joe Biden visiting China, "So now we owe them a trillion dollars and an apology."

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 1:45 when President Obama tries to twist the meaning of "Obamacare."

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump.

A majority of New Jersey voters disapproves of the way President Obama is handling his job, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll released early Wednesday that also shows Democratic Sen. Robert Menendez facing significant headwinds going into his 2012 re-election campaign.

Just 44 percent of New Jersey voters approve of Obama's job performance, the lowest score ever recorded in the Quinnipiac poll, while 52 percent disapprove. In mid-June, half of New Jersey voters approved of Obama, while 46 percent disapproved. Garden State independents have turned sharply on Obama: Now, just 39 percent of independents approve of his job performance, while 57 percent disapprove.

A slight plurality (49 percent) also says that Obama does not deserve to be re-elected, while 45 percent feel that he does deserve re-election. Matched up against a generic Republican candidate, Obama leads, 45 percent to 37 percent, but that is still well within the danger zone for the president. The poll did not test Obama against specific Republican candidates.

Menendez has also seen a drop in support over the past two months. Now, his approval rating stands at 39 percent, while slightly more voters, 42 percent, disapprove of his job performance. In mid-June, 45 percent of voters approved of Menendez's job performance, and 38 percent disapproved. A majority of independents (51 percent) now disapproves of Menendez.

Slightly more voters (43 percent) believe that Menendez does not deserve to be re-elected, versus those who do believe he deserves re-election (41 percent). Like Obama, Menendez earns the support of 45 percent of voters when matched up against a generic Republican opponent, who earns 39 percent of the vote. Quinnipiac did not test Menendez against any specific New Jersey Republicans.

Voters in the Garden State are also split on controversial Republican Gov. Chris Christie. Roughly equal percentages of voters approve (47 percent) and disapprove (46) of Christie's job performance. That represents a slight uptick from mid-June, when 44 percent of voters approved of Christie, while 47 percent disapproved.

Though Christie has a slightly higher job approval rating, when voters are asked which man is a better leader, 49 percent choose Obama, while 44 percent choose Christie.

In the year's final two recall elections in Wisconsin on Tuesday, both Democratic state senators retained control of their seats, keeping Republicans from padding their narrow 17-16 advantage in the upper chamber.

With 78 percent of precincts reporting in District 12, the Associated Press has called the race for state Sen. Jim Holperin, who leads his GOP challenger Kim Simac 54 percent to 46 percent. Going into the evening, most of the focus was on Holperin's race, as Republicans saw the best chance for a pickup there.

Earlier Tuesday, Democratic state Sen. Robert Wirch held his 22nd District seat, turning back his GOP opponent, attorney Jonathan Steitz on Tuesday. With 99 percent of precincts in the district reporting, the AP has called the race for Wirch, who leads Steitz 57 percent to 43 percent.

Wirch and Holperin are the second and third Democrats who faced recall elections to retain control of their seats. In July, state Sen. Dave Hansen held onto his seat in the 30th District.

"I am proud to continue to represent the people of the Kenosha region," Wirch said. "The future of Wisconsin depends on the strength of our working, middle class families and I look forward to returning to Madison with two new Democratic senators to enact a moderate, Wisconsin agenda that supports them."

In total, six Republicans and three Democrats faced recall elections this summer in an expensive battle that by one estimate brought in upwards of $35 million in total spending. Democrats retained control in the three districts where they faced recalls, and picked up two GOP-held seats. But they fell short of their ultimate goal: taking control of the upper chamber, a result that was a blow to the effort put forth by labor and other Democratic allies who invested heavily in the races.

Early indications are that turnout, as it was last Tuesday, is heavy today in Wisconsin:

-- In 12th District race between state Sen. Jim Holperin and Kim Simac (expected to be the more competitive of the two taking place today), election observers told the Lakeland Times shortly before noon that turnout in predominately Republican Minocqua for that time of day was approaching last fall's governor's race. Traditionally Democratic-heavy areas appeared to be turning out as well.

-- Brian Sikma of the conservative watchdog group Media Trackers tells Hotline On Call: Turnout in the 12th District will probably exceed the spring Supreme Court election by some unknown margin. Around 4 and 5 hours after polls opened turnout was ranging from 25 percent to 42 percent of the spring election. Lower turnout was coming from wards nearly evenly split between Democrats and Republicans (based on 2010 and Spring 2011 elections) and higher turnout was in areas that trend Democratic.

-- The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports more workers were being sent out to address long lines at some polls in Kenosha, where the 22nd District race -- which appears safer for the Democrats to hold today -- is taking place. A Government Accountability Board spokesman said that there had been reports of long lines for voters in Arbor Vitae, in the 12th District race, the paper also reported.

Late last week, three former state GOP chairs in Michigan threw their weight behind Republican Clark Durant, despite the fact that front-running former Rep. Pete Hoekstra recently entered the Senate race and buoyed the hopes of many Republicans hoping to unseat Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow in 2012.

Can Durant -- who on Tuesday officially confirmed that he is running -- compete with Hoekstra? Conversations with strategists and observers in the state suggest he has the potential to make some noise, but the jury is still out on how much of a factor he's going to be.

Durant hasn't built the profile Hoekstra has established, but this won't be his first Senate run, nor will it be the first time he has run against a more well-known candidate with establishment support: in 1990 he ran for the Senate and lost to now-state Attorney General Bill Schuette in the GOP primary.

Durant has also served on the state board of education and has crafted a profile around a charter school program he founded, which has won him favor among some conservatives in the state.

"Durant is not a creature of Washington. Rather, as a true conservative, Clark has devoted himself to demonstrating how freedom and empowerment works at the local level to transform lives, strengthen communities and provide hope for every person to maximize their potential," former state GOP chairs Saul Anuzis, Betsy DeVos, and Spence Abraham -- who also served as a senator -- wrote in a letter expressing their support for Durant.

That reads as an indirect shot at Hoekstra. The former congressman's campaign, meanwhile, is focused on steering the conversation toward Stabenow's record.

"Pete Hoekstra is going to continue talk about failed, big-government policies of Sen. Stabenow and Barack Obama and contrast them with his proven record of being a fiscal conservative in fighting for smaller, more efficient government," said Hoekstra spokesman Brian Jones, when asked for a response to the endorsement.

Virginia's Republican Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli said he may run for the Senate against Sen. Mark Warner, D-Va., in 2014, the Washington Post reported Tuesday morning.

Most of the buzz surrounding Cuccinelli's political future has been over a possible gubernatorial run in 2013. Cuccinelli, who has been one of the leading figures at the forefront of the movement to challenge the constitutionality of the federal health care law, has said in the past that he intends to run for reelection in 2013, though he had not ruled out a run for governor. Republican Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling has been positioning himself for a gubernatorial bid of his own in 2013.

Meanwhile, in Oklahoma, Republican Sen. Tom Coburn reaffirmed something he's said before: he won't run for a third term in 2016.

The National Republican Congressional Committee will be launching robocalls this week against 10 House Democrats, hitting them over the economy and rising prices for families.

Targeted calls will begin today against Rep. Tim Bishop, D-N.Y., Rep. Leonard Boswell, D-Iowa, Rep. Lois Capps, D-Calif., Rep. Russ Carnahan, D-Mo., Rep. Kathy Castor, D-Fla., Rep. Mark Critz, D-Pa., Rep. Michael Michaud, D-Maine, Rep. Collin Peterson, Rep. Nick Rahall, D-W.Va., and Rep. John Yarmuth, D-Ky.

"While some are changing the conversation in Washington to one of spending cuts and economic growth, Tim Bishop is part of a group making a bad economy worse," says the call against the New York Democrat. "You feel the disastrous effects of Tim Bishop's policies every day as gas prices go up, your grocery bill gets higher, you see more foreclosure signs pop up in your neighborhood and more Americans feel uneasy about their jobs."

"It's time for Bishop and his fellow Democrats to stop making a bad economy worse and start lifting the fear and uncertainty that will encourage job creators and small businesses to provide much needed relief for New York's middle-class families," said NRCC spokesman Paul Lindsay.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. It's Election Day in Wisconsin, where the GOP hopes to pick off a seat in the final round of recalls. Meanwhile, Perry has some harsh words for Bernanke, Huntsman picks up a former TPaw aide, and Janice Hahn is on a collision course with a member of her own party. Here's today's rundown:

9) Democratic Governors Association Chairman Martin O'Malley may be able to rock the guitar, but former Democratic National Committee Chairman Tim Kaine plays a mean harmonica.

8) Pay-to-meet your congressman? Politico reports that several Republican congressmen, including Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis., aren't holding any town halls this recess - with some constituent events requiring a small fee to attend.

7) The Wisconsin recall election season reaches its conclusion today, when two Democrats face elections. Pay attention to the 12th District race tonight to see whether Republicans can win back the seat in an upset and pad their narrow 17-16 state Senate majority. The race has drawn over $4.5 million in outside spending as of Monday, according to an estimate by the Wisconsin Democracy Campaign, a nonpartisan watchdog group that tracks spending.

Check out Hotline On Call's preview of the day's elections and stay tuned for results this evening after polls close at 8 p.m. CT.

Jon Stewart doesn't understand why Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, isn't included in the Republican 'top tier', "You're not forgetting, I don't know anyone, say an ideologically consistent, 12-term congressman who came within less than 200 votes of winning the straw poll? Isn't anyone going to give that gentleman a little love?"

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 0:30, Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., gets 80 percent of the votes she paid for.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump!

Just 13 percent of Americans approve of the job Congress is doing according to a new Gallup poll released early Tuesday, just the latest data point showing the American public's disgust with Washington at record levels in the wake of the contentious debate over raising the federal debt ceiling.

The percentage of Americans who approve of Congress ties a record-low, previously equaled last December. A record 84 percent of Americans now disapprove of the job that Congress is doing.

Just nine percent of independents approve of Congress -- the lowest Gallup has ever recorded for that group -- though the legislative branch earns slightly higher approval ratings among Democrats (15 percent) and Republicans (17 percent).

A separate USA Today/Gallup poll conducted earlier this month showed that only 21 percent of registered voters said most members of Congress deserved re-election, another record low. Both measures raise the specter of a fourth-consecutive tumultuous election for the House and Senate.

The new Gallup poll was conducted Aug. 11-14. Gallup surveyed 1,008 adults, for a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percent.

My column this week sounded a bullish note on the primary and general election prospects of Texas Gov. Rick Perry, the latest Republican presidential flavor of the month, but one who looks to have real staying power.

From National Journal:
Scenes From the Iowa Straw Poll

Governor Pawlenty vs. Candidate Pawlenty

Obama Owns the Economy - Or Not?

POLL: Obama Hits New Low In Gallup Survey

PICTURES: GOPers Love Babies, But Babies Are Still Undecided

The prevailing conventional wisdom currently is that Perry, with his Texas swagger and outspoken conservatism, is a solid candidate but will have challenges appealing to the suburban, independent voters who traditionally decide elections. Indeed, his biggest challenge is whether he can appeal to what my colleague Ron Brownstein has defined the "managerial class" - white-collar, college-educated voters who may blanche at some of the more conservative elements within the Republican party.

A look at exit polls in his most recent campaign for governor of Texas, though, shows he performed very competitively among the managerial class in his 2010 campaign against Democrat Bill White, a Houston mayor with strong business bona fides himself.

Perry handily won the college-educated and postgraduate demographic, winning 56 percent. In fact, he was one of the few Republican candidates in any state to win over postgraduates, who traditionally vote heavily for Democrats. He won 56 percent of the independent vote, which makes up about one-third of the Texas electorate, though he had little crossover appeal, winning 5 percent of Democrats and 90 percent of Republicans.

He dominated in the suburbs, winning 60 percent of the vote, and performed well for a Republican in the cities, capturing 43 percent against a popular Houston mayor. Cities in Texas are somewhat more Republican than in other more liberal states, but his tally is still a solid showing.

With the major presidential candidates jockeying for position headed into the debate-heavy month of September, former Louisiana Gov. Buddy Roemer has his eyes on a modest goal.

"My prayer is that I can make a debate, somewhere, somehow," the long-shot presidential candidate said Monday during an appearance at the National Press Club in Washington.

"Due to arbitrary rules he has not been invited to participate in the last 3 [debates]," said Roemer campaign director Carlos Sierra. "We are hoping the hosts of the September 7th debate extend an invitation."

Roemer also called on his fellow candidates to pledge not to receive money from political action committees and Wall Street donors, and to stick to individual contributions capped at $2,500. For his own part, Roemer has pledged to receive only $100 donations from individual contributors, and has made that decision the centerpiece of his campaign. The Roemer campaign had just over $19,000 in the bank as of June 30th.

Roemer said he joined the race to bring attention to things that "are not going to be mentioned in any debate" -- the corrupting power of special interest money and trade regulations that he deems "unfair."

"They're not impressed with me; they laugh at me," Roemer said of his fellow GOP candidates. But "I just haven't heard them say a thing about these issues. What are they waiting for?"

In dropping below a 40-percent approval rating in the Gallup poll for the first time this weekend, President Obama hit a troubling milestone for his re-election campaign, but he also joined every president since John F. Kennedy to fall below this threshold.

Obama's approval rating jumped back above 40 percent Monday: 41 percent now approve of the job he is doing, while 53 percent disapprove. But overall, his approval rating has sagged since the debate this summer over raising the federal debt limit.

While this is an ignominious moment for the Obama administration, a review of Gallup's indispensable Presidential Job Approval Center shows that every presidency is different: presidents who dropped below 40 percent in their first terms were sometimes re-elected, and those who had overwhelmingly high approval ratings at this stage of the cycle didn't always maintain them through their re-election campaigns.

Courtesy of Gallup, a quick look back:

While the outcome of last Tuesday's elections dashed Democrats' hopes of retaking control of the Wisconsin Senate, the official end of the historic recall season in the Badger State doesn't arrive until this week. The final two elections take place Tuesday, and both parties still have something at stake. A brief guide to the final leg of the recall campaign:

What's happening: Two Democratic state senators face recall elections for leaving the state when Gov. Scott Walker's "budget repair bill" was going through the legislative process in Madison earlier this year. With state Sen. Robert Wirch favored to hold his 22nd District seat, the focus on Tuesday is squarely on state Sen. Jim Holperin's race in the 12th District, which both parties anticipate will be the closer contest.

Why you should care: Sure, Republicans secured their majority in the state Senate last week, so the stakes are not as high this week as they might have been. But on Tuesday, there is an opportunity for Republicans to pad their now narrow one-seat majority in the upper chamber. It's also a chance for the party to show that Democrats were not exempt from voter anger in the Badger State this year. If Democrats can hold both seats, they stay within one seat of a majority and can paint the effort to recall Democratic legislators as a failure.

The specifics: Holperin is facing Kim Simac, who founded a Tea Party group. Wirch is being challenged by attorney Jonathan Steitz. Turnout was high last Tuesday, exceeding numbers from last November in one district. That said, predicting how many voters will show up this week is still difficult, given that the majority no longer hangs in the balance. Polls will be open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. CT. We'll have results and a full wrap for you on Tuesday night.

Newton Mayor Setti Warren has had trouble on WCVB's "On The Record" television program before, and in his latest appearance on the show, the Massachusetts Democratic Senate candidate wasn't able to answer a single question about Egypt during a pop quiz segment.

Among the specific topics Warren was grilled on: When have the elections in Egypt been delayed until? What outsiders were banned by military rulers during the upcoming elections? Who is the current prime minister of Egypt?

Warren's spokesperson defended the candidate's foreign policy credentials to the Boston Herald, noting his service as a naval intelligence specialist and his tour of duty in Iraq. Still, it's an embarrassing footage to have in circulation, especially for a candidate who has already been struggling with fundraising.

It's not the first time Warren has stumbled on the program. In a March appearance on the show, he was asked, "Which former mayor of San Francisco was assassinated with gay rights activist Harvey Milk?" He incorrectly answered "Dianne Feinstein" before correcting himself.

WCVB has posted video of the appearance on its website (the pop quiz occurs at the end of segment one and top of segment two.)

At Newt Gingrich's unfortunately decorated apron? That pork logo can mean so many things.

(Photo credit: Scott Olson / Getty Images)

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. After his disappointing Ames finish, Pawlenty drops out but Perry is catching fire. A Republican in Hawaii has big plans, while a leading Democratic recruit in Illinois gets a major endorsement.

Meanwhile, T-Paw may not have a day job right now, but is a campaign against Klobuchar in the works? Here's today's rundown:

8) Look for an announcement from former Rep. Charles Djou, R-Hawaii, about his future political plans later this week. An email to supporters sent out early Monday hinted at a House bid, but stopped short of any official declaration. "Hawaii has become isolated in the U.S. House by the lack of bipartisan representation in our Congressional delegation," the email said.

Djou told Hotline On Call in late July that he was "moving in the direction" of running for Hawaii's 1st District seat, now represented by Rep. Colleen Hanabusa, D-Hawaii, who is considering a Senate run. Djou said he was giving a run serious thought regardless of Hanabusa's plans.

7) Over in the Senate race, former Rep. Ed Case, D-Hawaii, continues to contrast his record with his Democratic opponent, Rep. Mazie Hirono. And in an interview with Honolulu Civil Beat after opening up his camapign headquarters Sunday, Case once again defended his decision to release a poll that irked the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and had some harsh words for national Democrats.

"I've said that to them directly. Common wisdom is that Lingle could do very well against Hirono," Case said. "So, from my perspective, the poll just said what everybody thinks. But they prefer to maintain the fiction, and I think it's better to put things on the table from the get-go."

Jay Leno wasn't impressed with the Republican debate in Iowa, "You know who the winner was -- anyone who didn't watch."

Jimmy Fallon, on President Obama promising to come up with ideas for new jobs every week, "Not to be outdone, Joe Biden promised to come up with ideas for new cereals every week."

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 1:40 to watch the 2012 Republican candidates flip burgers.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump!

Add another data point to the pile of evidence that President Obama is going to face a tough re-election bid: His approval rating in Gallup's daily tracking poll has fallen to a new low.

Following an unpopular agreement to raise the nation's debt ceiling, a credit downgrade and a significant sell-off on Wall Street, Obama's approval rating dipped below 40 percent in the Gallup poll.

Thirty-nine percent of Americans now approve of the job Obama is doing as president, while 54 percent disapprove, according to interviews conducted Thursday, Friday and Saturday. The percentage of Americans who disapprove of Obama's job performance is also at a new high.

Obama won a brief bump in May after he announced Osama bin Laden's death; Obama's approval rating, which had sunk to 43 percent, jumped to 53 percent in late May. But a little more than two months later, Obama's approval rating had fallen to its previous low-water mark.

The Gallup daily tracking poll surveys approximately 500 adults each night. The margin of error for the three-day rolling sample is +/- 2.5 percent.

AMES, Iowa -- A strongly favored Michele Bachmann became the first Republican woman to win the Iowa Straw Poll on Saturday, while sluggish, third-place finish by Tim Pawlenty in the state party's mock election threatened to hobble his presidential campaign.

The Minnesota congresswoman's bounty of 4,823 votes after only two months in the race was a testament to her infectious enthusiasm on the stump and proudly populist message at time when polls show confidence in government at all-time lows. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas came in a close second with 4,671 votes. Pawlenty received 2,293 votes.

The nominal frontrunner in the race, Mitt Romney, didn't attend the straw poll and received even fewer votes than Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who launched his campaign only hours earlier in South Carolina. Perry wasn't listed on the ballot, but 718 voters wrote in his name.

Branded by a disciplined, well-organized campaign as both a tea party icon and devout Christian, Bachmann offered a unifying, upbeat theme to the crowd at the Hilton Coliseum at Iowa State University.

(Updated 10:02 p.m.)

The Iowa Republican Party has just released updated tallies from Saturday's presidential straw poll. Here's the official breakdown.

2011 Straw Poll Full Results (Votes, %)
1. Congresswoman Michele Bachmann (4823, 28.55%)
2. Congressman Ron Paul (4671, 27.65%)
3. Governor Tim Pawlenty (2293, 13.57%)
4. Senator Rick Santorum (1657, 9.81%)
5. Herman Cain(1456, 8.62%)
6. Governor Rick Perry (718, 3.62%) write-in
7. Governor Mitt Romney (567, 3.36%)
8. Speaker Newt Gingrich (385, 2.28%)
9. Governor Jon Huntsman (69, 0.41%)
10. Congressman Thad McCotter (35, 0.21%)
Scattering (218, 1.30 %) Includes all those receiving votes at less than one-percent that were not on the ballot.

What we at The Hotline learned this week:

-- Texas Gov. Rick Perry announced he'll run for president in South Carolina, underscoring the state's importance in the Republican primary. Remember, no one has won the GOP nomination since 1980 without first winning the South Carolina primary. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has been leading in the few polls there -- and he's barely been in the state. With a mix of both social and economic conservatives, the state's the perfect mix of the first two preceding states, and it's one Perry could come in and take the early wind in.

-- Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty is finally trying to show his fiery side, but his campaign has to worry that it's too little, too late. Or that he's taken on the wrong rival: He took an aggressive tone with Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., during Thursday's debate, but he took only a passing cheap shot at Mitt Romney, his real target. But his late push before the Ames Straw Poll to shed the "Minnesota nice" image may not be enough to convert some Iowa voters, who seem to like more passionate and charismatic candidates like Bachmann and businessman Herman Cain.

-- While Democrats, led by big labor unions, picked up two state Senate seats in Wisconsin, they fell short of their larger goal, seizing control of the majority. But Republicans are worried that the Wisconsin elections are a prelude to a bigger effort in Ohio, where an effort to repeal the state's new collective bargaining measure is on November's ballot. Back in Wisconsin, the question is how galvanized activists will be to pursue a recall of Gov. Scott Walker himself.

-- Perry is the main draw at the RedState convention today in Charleston, but some Senate candidate will be speaking at the gathering, too, including Florida's Adam Hasner, Texas's Ted Cruz and Nebraska's Don Stenberg. Stenberg wants to be viewed as a credible conservative alternative to Attorney General Jon Bruning, but hasn't made a mark yet. It would help, perhaps, if he hadn't run about 16 times before. It's not as if Bruning isn't giving him openings: Bruning's comments comparing welfare recipients to racoons made headlines across the state.

Rick Perry is making his presidential bid official at this hour with a speech in South Carolina, site of one of the crucial early primary contests in next year's contest for the GOP nomination.

He's emphasizing his 10-year record as governor of Texas, a state that has weathered the recession better than most.

"It is time to get America working again," Perry said several times during his speech. The way to do so, he added, is to deliver "a pink slip to the current occupant of the White House."

While in South Carolina, Perry held private meetings with two statewide elected officials whose endorsements will be coveted in the GOP primary: Gov. Nikki Haley, and Education Superintendent Mick Zais.

Read more about Perry's late and long-awaited entry into the volatile contest for the GOP nomination and about his record as governor of the Lone Star State at National Journal.com.

Happy Straw Poll Saturday! From Hotline's Resources Database, here's how earlier Iowa Republican Party straw polls turned out:

'07 Straw Poll                              '08 IA Caucuses
               Votes %age                  Votes %age

Romney          4516  37%   Huckabee       40,954  34%
Huckabee        2587  18    Romney         30,021  25
Brownback       2192  15    F. Thompson    15,960  13
Tancredo        1961  14    McCain         15,539  13
Paul            1305   9    Paul           11,841  10
T. Thompson     1039   7    Giuliani        4,099   3
F. Thompson      203   1    Hunter            506  <1
Giuliani         183   1    Keyes             247  <1
Hunter           174   1    Others             24  <1
McCain           101  <1
Cox               41  <1
Total          14302        Total         119,188
'99 Straw Poll                              '00 IA Caucuses
               Votes %age                  Votes %age
Bush            7418  31%   Bush           35,948  41%
Forbes          4921  21    Forbes         26,744  31
Dole            3410  14    Keyes          12,496  14
Bauer           2114   9    Bauer           7,487   9
Buchanan        1719   7    McCain          4,093   5
Alexander       1428   6    Hatch             898   1
Keyes           1101   5
Quayle           916   4
Hatch            558   2
McCain            83  <1
Kasich             9  <1
Smith              8  <1
Total          23685        Total          87,666
'95 Straw Poll                              '96 IA Caucuses 
              Votes %age                  Votes %age
Dole            2582  24%   Dole           25,378  26%
Gramm           2582  24    Buchanan       22,512  23
Buchanan        1922  18    Alexander      17,003  18
Alexander       1156  11    Forbes          9,816  10
Keyes            804   7    Gramm           9,001   9
Taylor           803   7    Keyes           7,179   7
Lugar            466   4    Lugar           3,576   4
Wilson           129   1    Taylor          1,380   1
Dornan            87  <1    No pref.          428  <1
Specter           67  <1    Dornan            131  <1
Total          10958        Total          96,451
'87 Straw Poll                              '88 IA Caucuses 
               Votes %age                   Votes %age 
Robertson       1293  34%   Dole           40,661  37%
Dole             958  25    Robertson      26,761  25
Bush             864  22    Bush           20,194  19
Kemp             520  14    Kemp           12,088  11  
DuPont           160   4    DuPont          7,999   7
Heslop            13  <1    No pref.          739  <1
Haig              12  <1    Haig              364  <1
Fernandez          8  <1
Others            15  <1
Total           3843        Total         108,806

With all eyes on Ames, Iowa, for Saturday's Republican straw poll, it's useful to look at the event's history to understand some of the hype surrounding it. In the past, the straw poll has been a good harbinger of success in the coming Iowa caucuses -- but it has been less predictive of the eventual GOP nominee and even less predictive of the winner of the general election.

In fact, George W. Bush is the only candidate who has done it, winning the 1999 Ames straw poll and going on to win the Iowa caucuses before winning the GOP nomination and presidency in 2000.

In the 2007 straw poll, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney came in first, while former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee made a surprise second place finish (Huckabee is a draw at the event this year, with former Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pa., former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty and businessman Herman Cain all having him perform in their straw poll tents). Huckabee went on to win the Iowa caucuses, with Romney taking second, though both eventually lost the nomination to Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz.

The other GOP president to win the straw poll and the caucuses was George H.W. Bush -- though he did so in 1979 and 1980, when he went on to lose the nomination to Ronald Reagan. When he did become president in 1988, he had lost Ames to Pat Robertson (who in turn lost the Iowa caucuses to Bob Dole, the second-place finisher at the caucuses that year).

Dole won at Ames in 1995 and went on to win Iowa and become the Republican nominee before losing to Bill Clinton in the general election.

The straw poll was first held in 1979.

Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., is scheduled to appear on all five major Sunday shows to discuss Thursday's Fox News debate, the Ames Straw Poll results and her campaign for the White House. Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty will appear on ABC's "This Week" while businessman Herman Cain will head to "Fox News Sunday."

For all things Iowa on TV, check out our weekend listings.

Check out the full listings after the jump.

Tea party star Rep. Allen West, R-Fla., would not completely rule out a Senate run during an interview with West Palm Beach-based WPTV-TV, saying "the door is cracked very slightly" on launching a bid to challenge Sen. Bill Nelson, D-Fla.

The GOP primary field in Florida has been in a state of uncertainty since state Senate President Mike Haridopolos unexpectedly dropped out of the race in mid-July.

Since Haridopolos' departure, environmental consultant Nick Loeb has been expressing interest in the race, and there has been speculation regarding a possible Rep. Vern Buchanan, R-Fla., candidacy as well. And after dropping out, Haridopolos mentioned a number of candidates he hoped might jump in, a list that included West along with former Gov. Jeb Bush and Reps. Connie Mack IV and Jeff Miller.

While former state House Majority Leader Adam Hasner and former Sen. George LeMieux are the most prominent candidates in the current field, a recent poll that had ret. Army Col. Mike McCalister leading the field shows how wide-open this race still is.

A new poll by Democratic pollster Greenberg Quinlan Rosner of likely 2012 voters shows both President Obama and House Republicans are in shaky positions coming out of the debt ceiling debate.

The poll, conducted for Democracy Corps and Women's Voices, Women Vote, showed Obama leading former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in a 2012 matchup, 48-46 percent.

"As an incumbent, you don't want to be at 48 percent. All these numbers are heading toward a very close, difficult election," said pollster Stan Greenberg on a conference call Friday. "He's not been hurt by it (the debt ceiling debate and agreement), but he also can't be satisfied by where he is."

Half of likely 2012 voters now disapprove of the job Obama is doing, while 45 percent approve. And only 16 percent of respondents said the country was headed in the right direction, while 75 percent said it was on the wrong track.

But House Republicans did not fare well either, with 31 percent saying they approved how they're handling their job being in charge in the House, and 64 percent disapproving -- with 44 percent strongly disapproving.

AMES, Iowa -- For at least one day, Sarah Palin acted and sounded like someone still seriously considering running for president. The former Alaska governor made a visit to the Iowa State Fair on Friday, a traditional stop for Republican presidential candidate a day before the Iowa Straw Poll. Palin's name isn't on the ballot Saturday, but she indicated it might be when Iowans make their decision next year during the caucuses.

"There is still plenty of room in that field for a common-sense conservative," said Palin, surrounded by a throng of reporters as she walked through the fair. "Watching the debate, not just last night, but watching this whole process over the past year, it has certainly shown me there's plenty of room for more people."

News of Palin's visit spread quickly through the fair, drawing reporters away from a speech from presidential candidate Rick Santorum to a bare-bricked barn filled with bovines. There, Palin, dressed in a white T-shirt and jeans and standing next to her husband, Todd, answered a litany of questions.

Asked about the unflattering Newsweek cover of Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., Palin quipped: "I've had my own experiences with Newsweek," adding that she thought it was trying to make a "conservative candidate" look bad.

She also shot back at critics who say the tea party caused the country's credit downgrade. "The last group or entity to be blamed for downgrade is tea party," she said. "They're the ones who sounded the warning bells there for the last couple years."

If anyone was hoping to see a rematch between former Rep. Chris Shays, R-Conn., and Rep. Jim Himes, D-Conn., it won't happen in 2012.

Himes, who beat Shays in 2008 in the southwestern Connecticut district, confirmed on C-SPAN's "Washington Journal" Friday that he was not considering a run to replace retiring Sen. Joe Lieberman, ID-Conn.

"No, I'm absolutely not looking at the Senate seat," said Himes.

The congressman had joined the rest of the Nutmeg State's House delegation in throwing his support to Rep. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., in March.

Shays, who served ten terms in the House, is reportedly gearing up to join the Senate race.

Check out the clip below.

Tim Burns, a wealthy former executive of a bio-tech company and former congressional candidate from western Pennsylvania, met with the National Republican Senatorial Committee last week about a possible campaign against Sen. Bob Casey, D-Pa., his adviser tells Hotline On Call.

"Tim is exploring his options for public service," said Ray Zaborney, a Harrisburg-based Republican strategist who accompanied Burns when he met with the NRSC.

His potential emergence is welcome news for Pennsylvania Republicans, who have thus far failed to recruit a credible opponent for the first-term Casey in what will likely be a 2012 presidential battleground. But he's not a panacea.

Burns, who lives about 30 miles southwest of Pittsburgh, was twice an unsuccessful congressional candidate last year. In a May special election to replace the late Rep. John Murtha in the state's 12th Congressional District, Burns fell to Democratic nominee Mark Critz by more than 7 percentage points, a disappointing result for Republicans in a race many they thought they could win. Burns ran again in the general election - just six months later -- and came much closer to victory, losing by fewer than 3,000 votes. But he still failed to take advantage of the conservative wave that helped five fellow GOP challengers topple Democratic incumbents in the Keystone State that year.

The 12th District sprawls across much of southwest Pennsylvania, including Johnstown, Murtha's hometown. It has a roughly two-to-one registration advantage for Democrats, but many of the district's blue-collar members have long voted Republican in national elections. Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., won the district narrowly in 2004; President Obama essentially split it with Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., in 2008.

Still, Burns's profile as a self-made businessman from western Pennsylvania could provide an inviting contrast for Republicans with Casey. The incumbent has aligned himself closely with Obama's policies the last three years, and the president's approval ratings have sagged in the Keystone State. 50 percent of residents do not think he deserved re-election, a Quinnipiac University poll released last week found. The same poll found Casey, whose opposition to abortion-rights and connection to his late father, former Gov. Robert Casey, helps him retain appeal among blue-collar voters, leading a generic Republican 47 percent to 35 percent.

"Tim ran for Congress last year because he truly believed that the country was headed in the wrong direction and it still is, with high unemployment and a President and U.S. Senator who clearly have no idea how to fix the economy," Zaborney said. "So if there is an opportunity for him to serve his country and change the direction of the Nation and Pennsylvania in a positive way, he is open to it."

House Majority PAC is launching an ad offensive in against three House Republicans, hitting them during recess on "misguided priorities," including ethics problems and votes they say hurt the middle class.

The six figure cable TV buy starts today and runs through next week, targeting freshmen Reps. Tim Griffin, R-Ark., Scott Tipton, R-Colo., and Chip Cravaack, R-Minn.

"The American people are disgusted with House Republicans' misguided priorities and votes to throw middle class families under the bus," the group's executive director Alixandria Lapp said in a statement. "Whether it's ethics problems or voting for tax loopholes to keep corporate profits sky high, protecting profits for companies that ship jobs to China, or ending Medicare as we know it, House Republicans have plenty to answer for back home this August recess."

The 30-second ad against Tipton hits him over contracting a teletown hall firm for his House office that his nephew works for. A clip of Tipton on the House floor shows him saying, "Once you come to this place... it seems to kind of cloud your vision." The announcer: "You don't say? Only six months in office and Congressman Tipton is channeling congressional funds to his family's business."

Watch the full ad airing against Tipton after the jump.

A majority of voters would back a Democratic candidate for Congress, according to new numbers from Gallup. But Democrats don't enjoy anything close to the edge they held in 2006 and 2008, when the party held more seats in Congress.

Fifty-one percent of voters said they prefer the Democratic candidate for Congress, while 44 percent said they would vote for a Republican candidate.

It's the first time Democrats have held an edge since September 19, 2010, when they sported a one-point lead. By the end of October, just before a Republican wave swept the country, voters gave the GOP a four-point edge.

The numbers are a great talking point for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, but that's all they are. More Americans are apt to describe themselves as Democrats, and the survey is likely to attract even those who don't plan to vote. This survey, taken August 4-7, tested 1,204 registered voters, for a margin of error of plus or minus four percent. That means pollsters didn't ask whether those voters are inclined to actually go vote.

The more likely a voter is to cast a ballot, the more likely they are to lean Republican. At the same time Gallup found a four-point advantage for Republicans in 2010, a model that anticipated high voter turnout suggested Republicans had a ten-point gap, with 52 percent of voters favoring them and just 42 percent leaning toward Democrats. A model that assumed lower turnout pegged the Republican advantage at 55 percent to 40 percent (In the end, Republicans took about 51.5 percent of the vote in House contests, while Democrats won 44.8 percent).

EMILY's List is announcing its first congressional endorsements of the 2012 cycle, moving five Democratic women off its early "On The List" designation and giving them full backing.

Their first full endorsements include former Iraq war veteran and former Veterans Affairs Assistant Secretary Tammy Duckworth, running in Illinois's 8th District; former West Palm Beach Mayor Lois Frankel, running in Florida's 22nd District; 2010 nominee Ann McLane Kuster, running again in New Hampshire's 2nd District; former Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, running again in Arizona's 1st District; and former Iowa First Lady Christie Vilsack, running in Iowa's 4th District.

All five women have shown early indications of success on the trail and in fundraising. In the 2nd campaign finance quarter, Kuster, Kirkpatrick and Vilsack all outraised the male GOP incumbents they're challenging. Frankel, who's running against fundraising dynamo Rep. Allen West, R-Fla., raised $442,000 last quarter to West's $1.6 million. Duckworth, who nearly defeated Rep. Peter Roskam, R-Ill., in 2006, officially announced her campaign just after the fundraising deadline.

"Across the country, women are leading the way back for Democrats," said EMILY's List President Stephanie Schriock. "These five strong Democratic women are running fantastic campaigns, getting voters energized and are eager to bring their voices to Washington. EMILY's List couldn't be more thrilled to throw our full support behind them help make 2012 another 'Year of the Woman'."

Jay Leno isn't sure about Texas Gov. Rick Perry's decision to run for president, "A governor from Texas, with a cowboy mentality, who didn't do very well in school; would we ever elect somebody like that? I don't know."

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 0:45, the Daily Show has full team coverage in Iowa of the events leading up to the Ames Straw Poll.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump!

After days of silence, Missouri Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder, a likely gubernatorial candidate against Democratic Gov. Jay Nixon on Thursday denied a story a former Penthouse magazine Pet told in a media interview, but the Republican stopped short of addressing specific claims.

"Like most people I am not proud of every place I have been but this woman's bizarre story is not true. The Democrats have tried to use these tactics against me in the past and they have failed," Kinder said in a statement. "Jay Nixon may want to make up false stories about the past, but I, like most Missourians, remain focused on the issues that are important to Missourians like jobs and education."

Kinder continued: "Under Jay Nixon's leadership, Missouri ranked third-worst in terms of jobs losses in 2010 and nearly 50,000 fewer Missourians are employed now than when Jay Nixon took office. Today, Missouri's unemployment is 8.8%, we are being out-performed by all but three of the states that border Missouri and more than 269,000 Missourians cannot find work. Our schools are failing, our families are hurting and I will remain focused on talking about the issues that will move Missouri forward."

The Riverfront Times published a report earlier this week that included an interview with a former stripper, who claims Kinder recently offered her the chance to move in with him, and that he had been a frequent -- and overly aggressive -- customer of hers in the 1990s. As the week went on, Kinder didn't weigh in, even as other local and national media outlets picked up on the story and Democrats blasted Kinder for his silence on the matter.

"If these disturbing reports are so untrue, why did it take Peter Kinder six days to say anything? Peter Kinder is obviously in a pretty sad and desperate place right now," responded Missouri Democratic Party spokeswoman Caitlin Legacki. "Unfortunately, Kinder would rather blame others for his own unusual and inappropriate behavior than take responsibility and offer a real explanation."

Just in case you couldn't make the trip out to central Iowa for the Republican Presidential debate and the Ames Straw Poll, don't fret: you can watch the action from the comfort of your own home ... you'll just have to provide your own fried butter.

Fox News will get things started Thursday evening with the first primary debate in the Hawkeye State, which will take place at Iowa State University in Ames, and air at 9 p.m. ET. The debate will be moderated by Bret Baier. Baier will also anchor Special Report live from Ames on Friday and Saturday.

NBC has dispatched Chief White House Correspondent and Political Director Chuck Todd to the area, where he will broadcast live from Java Joe's in Des Moines for Friday's Daily Rundown. Todd will interview Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa. MSNBC's Andrea Mitchell Reports will also broadcast live from Java Joe's on Friday. Her guests will be Iowa pollster Ann Selzer, Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, D-Fla, who chairs the Democratic National Committee, and Congressional candidate and former Iowa First Lady Christie Vilsack.

C-SPAN, meanwhile, will air in full speeches by Herman Cain, Rep. Thaddeus McCotter, R-Mich., former Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pa., Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, and former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty. The candidates will be speaking at the Des Moines Register's soap box booth at the Iowa State Fair, starting at 11:30 a.m. on Friday.

Saturday is the big day in Ames. C-SPAN begins their coverage of the straw poll at noon and will carry candidate speeches starting at 1 p.m. ET. Only six of the nine GOP candidates will speak.

Updated at 6:55 p.m.

Republican Bob Turner is up with a shocking TV ad, reigniting the debate over the mosque near Ground Zero in his special election in New York's 9th District that will occur just two days after the 10th anniversary of the September 11 attacks.

"It's been ten short years. Everyone remembers," the narrator says, as images of the burning World Trade Center play across the screen. Some, though, want to commemorate the tragedy by building a mosque on Ground Zero. President Obama thinks that's a good idea. And so does Congressional candidate David Weprin."

"Bob Turner says no. He knows Obama and Weprin are wrong," the ad says. "September 13th, send a message."

Turner was polling a surprisingly close six points below Weprin, the Democratic nominee, in a Siena poll released Wednesday. He touts the ad as "simple and factual" in his press release, although the proposed mosque wouldn't be on Ground Zero but is near the attack site.

Turner spokesperson Bill O'Reilly said they see the area around Ground Zero as all-encompassing, and that it's still a relevant debate as the group seeking to build there continues to seek funding.

"It's right there. That whole area was devastated," O'Reilly told Hotline On Call. "Ground Zero includes the area around the World Trade Center as far as we're concerned."

"As we approach the tenth anniversary of 9/11, it's shameful that Bob Turner is trying to use the tragedy for his own political gain," said Weprin in a statement. "I knew people who lost their lives that day and Bob Turner dishonors their memory by politicizing the attacks on New York."

O'Reilly said the ad, which he called "a significant buy within the district," will begin airing Monday. According to a Democratic source, it's a two day buy on Monday and Tuesday, worth $8,900, and will be on Timewarner Cable (NY1, MSNBC, and CNN).

"Every voter in the district will know about the ad," said O'Reilly.

Watch the ad after the jump.

Kentucky Republican gubernatorial nominee David Williams' campaign manager is resigning in the middle of the state Senate president's race against Democratic Gov. Steve Beshear.

Luke Marchant, a former advisor to Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., is leaving the campaign to pursue other "professional opportunities," but he will "continue to be available to the campaign for consultation," according to a statement from ret. Major General Donald Storm, Williams' campaign chair.

This isn't the first staff shake-up for the Williams campaign. After the May primary, then-campaign manager Scott Jennings was replaced by Marchant. Jennings has remained with the campaign in an advisory role.

Williams has not named Marchant's replacement yet.

The Republican is the underdog in the race, lagging in polls and in fundraising. The election will take place November 8.

Mitt Romney's not expected to compete heavily in Iowa. But that doesn't mean he isn't making news in the Hawkeye State.

"Corporations are people too, my friend," the former Massachusetts governor said in a testy exchange at the Iowa State Fair's soapbox Thursday. He was responding to a question about corporate tax rates. As some in the crowd began to boo and heckle, Romney added, "of course they are! Everything corporations earn ultimately go to people!"

He's not technically wrong -- the legal doctrine of "corporate personhood" grants businesses many of the same rights as people. Corporations are, after all, formed by individuals -- a point Romney went on to make. The doctrine of corporate personhood had a major impact on the "Citizens United" Supreme Court decision, which allowed political action committees to raise and spend unlimited funds providing they don't coordinate with a candidate or a campaign.

But that doesn't mean it was a good decision to say it. Romney is in Iowa today for tonight's GOP presidential debate, but isn't participating in Saturday's Ames Straw poll and isn't expected to invest as heavily in Iowa as he did in 2008. He's been maintaining a low profile and Thursday he strayed from that course, and more or less handed Democrats an opposition ad.

Here's another reminder that a statement's truth value doesn't always correlate to how it plays politically. Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., learned that in 2008 with his "the fundamentals of our economy are strong," comment.

-- "I want to use my financial resources and my time this time to actually get delegates. Not the straw polls that are nice but don't get you delegates" -- Mitt Romney, on not participating in the Ames Straw Poll. (Fox News Channel's "Hannity," 8/10)

-- "The straw poll is a candidate-driven event, and we have no candidate and there's no campaign. We don't have (country singer) Randy Travis. We don't have a barbecue. We're not giving away peach jam" -- Craig Schoenfeld, Iowa director of the California-based 527 group Americans for Rick Perry. (Quad-City Times, 8/9)

-- "The whole thing is like a giant Mormon Jerry Springer show" -- A Mesa, Arizona resident describing the GOP Senate race between Rep. Jeff Flake and friend Wil Cardon, an investor. (Daily Beast, 8/11)

-- "Common sense left Washington, D.C., when Elvis did. They haven't found Elvis and common sense hasn't been back since" -- Herman Cain, to a crowd in Clear Lake, Iowa (Mason City Globe Gazette, 8/10).

Democrat Kate Marshall is continuing to hammer Republican Mark Amodei over Medicare in Nevada's 2nd District special election, and will release an ad starting on Reno TV tomorrow featuring seniors questioning the GOP budget plan, according to a Democratic source.

"I worked 45 years...50 years...55 years...I paid for it...I earned it," seniors say in the ad. "You can't end Medicare."

"Amodei -- no way," the group of senior citizens say at the end. "I just can't believe this is what you want to do."

See the ad below.

Rep. Jason Chaffetz, R-Utah, is leaving his district for several town hall meetings across the state and so far, the probable Senate candidate has spent considerable time talking about Sen. Orrin Hatch.

The Salt Lake Tribune has a good write-up of a Wednesday town hall meeting, while conservative Utah blogger Michael Jolley has video clips. Chaffetz looks and sounds like a candidate already in campaign mode.

"Remember, when I ran for Congress, it was Orrin Hatch, Bob Bennett, President Bush who came out and endorsed for his candidate against me. I love that. Bring it on. Bring it on," Chaffetz said at one point.

It's notable that Hatch and Chaffetz have begun to engage more in recent months, whether through direct barbs or via responses from spokespeople. In early June, I took a closer look at Hatch's preemptive outreach to the Tea Party earlier in 2011, an effort made considerably easier with no other candidates in the race.

This summer, that situation's changed, even though Chaffetz hasn't officially said he is running (he's said a decision will come during football season). Chaffetz has begun test driving an argument against Hatch, and more and more of his barbs are ending up as quotes in the local media. The Club for Growth also ran an ad in July warning Hatch on the debt ceiling.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. A new analysis of state-level Gallup poll data from the first half of 2011 shows President Obama's path to reelection in 2012 is narrower than his first campaign. Meanwhile, it's debate day in Iowa while a new poll shows Bachmann slipping, and the Virginia Senate race gets a new candidate. Here's today's rundown:

9) Enjoy your August recess! Hotline Sort is also taking a recess on Fridays this month.

8) EMILY's List is putting Oregon Democratic state Sen. Suzanne Bonamici "On the List," a designation designed to help highlight her candidacy for donors. Bonamici announced last week she is running in the January special election in Oregon's 1st District. Democratic women candidates have run or are running in 4 out of the 5 special Congressional elections in 2011, and have already won twice.

7) Need a ride to Washington? Former Missouri Treasurer Sarah Steelman might be able to help you out. The GOP Senate candidate issued a statement earlier this week expressing outrage that Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill and Republican Rep. Todd Akin are "throwing $5,000 a plate fundraisers," adding, "people are fighting to be able to pay their bills, and Congress is on a 5 week vacation and out raking in more millions for their campaign accounts. If airfare is a problem, I'll drive them back to Washington myself."

The St. Louis Beacon notes McCaskill has been traveling this week to meet with businesses around the state, while a spokesman said Akin has been holding tele-town halls this week with constituents. Both held fundraising events Tuesday night.

Jon Stewart wants to know if "the people" made the right decision in the Wisconsin recall elections, "We got ourselves an old-fashioned Wisconsin populist off. Let's blow up some cows."

Jimmy Fallon, on Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., saying she won't use teleprompters if elected, "Then she added, 'That is a promise from me to .... hang on I got it here somewhere ... good afternoon.'"

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 2:10 for Jay Leno's "Video Metaphor for This Week's Financial Crisis."

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump!

When it comes to debates over the deficit, female elected officials are being underrepresented by at least 50 percent.

Women make up roughly 17 percent of the membership in both the Senate and House. Among the principle participants in the debt ceiling negotiations that concluded August 2 and the Gang of Six members, men accounted for 15 out of 16 chief negotiators, due to their various leadership positions.

Those leaders included President Obama, Vice President Biden, House Speaker John Boehner, majority and minority leaders in both chambers as well as the majority and minority whips. Sen. Dick Durbin, D-Ill., serves as the Senate Majority Whip and participated in the Gang of Six talks.

Of that group, the only woman was House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi.

Now that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and Boehner have made their selections for the Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction, eight out of their nine picks are men. That leaves only Sen. Patty Murray, D-Wash., who also serves as the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee chair, to represent female members of Congress. Reid named her a co-chair of the committee, where she will serve along with fellow co-chair Rep. Jeb Hensarling, R-Texas.

Combining those nine members with the 16 that played primary roles during the debt ceiling talks, 23 men (92 percent) and two women (8 percent) have served or will serve as members negotiating in leadership positions during deficit reduction talks.

Pelosi has yet to name her three picks for the "super" committee and could change the representation ratio with her selections. Naming three women would bump up the total percentage of female negotiators during the two rounds of budget talks to 18 percent.

A list of deficit negotiators during the debt ceiling talks and members of the Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction is after the jump.

Though Democrats failed to gain enough state Senate seats to retake the majority in Wisconsin's recall elections, there were hopeful signs for the party even in one of the districts they lost. Returns from the recall elections suggest that Democrats have begun to recover blue-collar support in Wisconsin, which cratered in 2010 and will be key to President Obama's chances across the Upper Midwest next November.

The six state Senate districts that held elections last night broke down simply along one economic measure: according to Census Bureau estimates, the median household income is above $50,000 per year in three districts and below that mark in the other three. Above the $50,000 level, the Democratic state Senate candidates made no gains against the Republican incumbents. But Democrats captured two of the lower-income districts last night (the 18th and 32nd) and lost narrowly in the third (the 14th), vastly improving on Democratic performance in those districts last November, and suggesting the party and its union allies successfully targeted working-class whites in the recall race.

Democratic gubernatorial candidate Tom Barrett and now former-Sen. Russ Feingold each ran at about 40 percent in the 14th and 18th districts in 2010. But Democrats running in those districts' recall elections Tuesday carried 48 and 51 percent of the vote, respectively. Barrett and Feingold did better in the 32nd district, winning close to half of the votes last November, and Democrat Jennifer Shilling also improved there, gathering 55 percent of votes cast. The Democratic Senate candidates all pulled close to Obama's rates of support when he narrowly carried their districts in 2008.

There were no exit polls conducted in the recall election. But no more than a quarter of residents are college-educated in any of those three districts, and each is at least 90 percent white. Democratic gains could hardly have come from anywhere else but blue-collar whites. By contrast, the Democrats running in the more affluent state Senate districts yesterday failed to improve on the 2010 performance of Barrett and Feingold.

Poor support from non-college whites doomed Feingold, among others, to defeat in 2010. He actually won narrowly among Wisconsin's white college graduates in 2010, according to exit polls, but now-Sen. Ron Johnson beat him badly, and sealed his overall victory by winning the state's non-college whites 58-40 percent.

If these signs of recovery among non-college whites are more than fleeting, they will prove important to Democrats' chances in the Upper Midwest in 2012. A real recovery among non-college whites will be welcome news for Obama and his party this cycle.

Updated at 1:46 p.m.

Democrats are flagging an interview Sen. Richard Lugar, R-Ind., did Tuesday with Louisville television station WDRB in which the longtime Republican senator says the "American economy is still strong."

Lugar's quote, in more context: "The American economy is still strong, that we're making progress although it's very slow in terms of job creation, and that we still have a dollar that is the world currency and we are still selling bonds to everybody all over the world despite the S&P downgrade."

Following Standard & Poor's announcement late last week that the U.S.'s credit rating would be downgraded, the stock market has been on a roller coaster ride -- closing down more than 600 points Monday while rebounding to close up more than 400 on Tuesday.

"Dick Lugar believes the American economy is resilient and will come back from the damage done by President Obama and the Democrats. Even with the damage done, the underlying basis for the American economy is strong, and we Republicans have full faith in our free market," said Lugar political director David Willkie.

During the 2008 presidential election, Democrats blasted Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., for an unfortunately timed remark along similar lines that proved damaging to his campaign. McCain said "the fundamentals of our economy are strong," in mid-September of that year, just as Lehman Brothers was collapsing and the nation's economic state reached a critical condition.

Democrats would like to see Lugar go down in the primary so that their own general election chances improve in a race against Treasurer Richard Mourdock, who has less appeal to Democrats and independents. "His remarks are nothing short of insulting to the Hoosier families who are very worried about what's happening on Wall Street and don't feel that the economy is strong," Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spokesman Shripal Shah said in a statement.

Anecdotally, it's interesting that Democrats are using this line of attack -- the president, a Democrat, is the figure voters most often held most responsible for the economy. But it illuminates the "enemy of my enemy is my friend" strategy often at work when parties try to elevate or push down a candidate in the opposing primary.

Updated at 1:55 p.m.

Self-funding Nevada Democrat Byron Georgiou has decided to drop his Senate bid, clearing the way for Rep. Shelley Berkley, to enjoy an unobstructed path toward the Democratic nomination and a likely general election showdown against Republican Sen. Dean Heller.

"After thoughtful consideration, I have decided to terminate my campaign for the Democratic Party's 2012 nomination for the United States Senate," Georgiou said in a statement. "I continue to believe that my background and experience well qualify me to serve in the Senate. However, at this time, I have concluded that I can more effectively contribute to resolution of the serious economic issues facing our state and nation through my work in the private sector, in the areas of clean energy, health care information technology, and broadband development."

Georgiou was never a real threat to defeat Berkley, but his money -- he loaned $500,000 to his campaign in the second quarter -- meant that he would have the funds necessary to run ads attacking Berkley. He also recently floated the possibility of running as an independent, which would have also been troubling news for Berkley in what is expected to be a very close general election contest.

"I have nothing but the utmost respect for Byron Georgiou," said Berkley in a statement. "He has an impressive record as a businessman and public servant and I know that he will continue to contribute to the betterment of our state and country in the years to come.

In June, it became increasingly clear that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, who is backing Berkley, wanted Georgiou out of the race. Reid said he regretted putting Georgiou on the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission -- a body tasked with investigating the causes of the economic crisis -- because he feels was misled about Georgiou's credentials. Georgiou pushed back, and went directly after Reid in a statement.

Both West Virginia gubernatorial campaigns are playing a little offense today.

Acting-Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin, the Democratic nominee, has landed the endorsement of the National Rifle Association, while self-funding Republican businessman Bill Maloney has launched the first two television ads of his general election campaign, one of which references his own NRA membership.

Tomblin, who consistently receives positive marks form the NRA, is built in the same conservative Democratic mold as now-Sen. Joe Manchin, who was also supported by the NRA during his race last year.

Maloney, meanwhile, launched two new ads Wednesday in which a his qualifications are listed off as he is interviewed for the job of governor. In one of the spots, the interviewer, looking over Maloney's resume, lists off "pro-life and member of the NRA" as the text "Pro-Life and & NRA member" flash across the bottom of the screen.

Maloney's ads say two things. First, he's been playing defense on the issue of guns, a position a Republican doesn't want to find him or herself in. Second, he has the money to continue to advertise, even with an election still almost two months away. Tomblin is favored to keep the seat in Democratic hands.

For those of you who followed the GOP primary, Maloney's dog "Holly" also appears in his latest spots.

Democrat David Weprin holds a scant, six-point lead over Republican Bob Turner in a Sept. 13 special election to replace disgraced former Rep. Anthony Weiner, D-N.Y., according to a new Siena Research Institute poll released Wednesday.

Weprin leads Turner among likely voters, 48 percent to 42 percent. Nine percent are undecided.

From National Journal:
Who Will Be On the Super Committee?

Fed Opens Door to Stimulus

VIDEO: Pundits Drool Over Perry Entrance

GOP Chasing Young Voters for 2012

Kansas to Return $31.5M Health Exchange Grant

Turner, a businessman who lost to Weiner in the 2010 general election in the district, has a six-point lead in the borough of Brooklyn, where roughly 30 percent of the district's voters reside. But Weprin, a state assemblyman, holds a ten-point lead in Queens, home to seven-in-ten voters. Weprin's father, Saul, represented Queens in the Assembly for more than 30 years, rising to the position of speaker before his passing in 1994.

Voters' opinions are surprisingly hardened with a month to go until the election. Just 15 percent of likely voters say they may change their minds between now and Election Day. That's split roughly evenly between Weprin's (17 percent) and Turner's (13 percent) supporters.

Turner has found an important and unlikely backer in the form of former New York Mayor Ed Koch. Koch was known for asking New Yorkers "How am I doing?" during his three terms as the city's Democratic mayor. More than 20 years after he left Gracie Mansion, the voters of the Ninth Congressional District have an overwhelmingly positive answer for Koch: A remarkable 69 percent of likely voters have a favorable opinion of him, while just 23 percent have an unfavorable opinion.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. In Wisconsin, Democrats pick up two seats in the recall elections, but fall just short of a state Senate majority. Meanwhile, Chris Shays is staffing up in Connecticut, Ricardo Sanchez makes a campaign stop in Austin, and Gary Johnson gets ready for a long bike ride in Colorado. Here's today's rundown:

7) Several high-profile presidential candidates will be in Ames, Iowa, on Saturday, while Texas Gov. Rick Perry will start the day in South Carolina as White House 2012 news is set to dominate the weekend. However, former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson isn't getting caught up in all the buzz. Where will he be come Saturday? In Colorado, participating in the Leadville 100 mountain bike race -- a 100 mile course that begins and ends in Leadville -- elevation 10,200 ft.

6) Ret. Lt. Gen. Ricardo Sanchez has been keeping a low profile since announcing his Senate bid, but the Democratic candidate made his first public appearance in Austin on Tuesday, referencing his military background.

"I'm not in this race for political power," Sanchez said after addressing the Hispanic Scholarship Consortium, according to the Austin American-Statesman. "I'm a patriot that wants to serve, that sees a need in this great country and a need for this great state of ours...to be able to represent the average Texan, the average American and be able to achieve some consensus on the problems that we're facing."

Jon Stewart doesn't think the photo of Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., on the cover of Newsweek shows her intensity, "That's not a -- I'm galvanizing the voters in Iowa -- picture. I look at that picture and think, isn't it a little soon to be doing a remake of the 40 Year-Old Virgin."

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 0:10 when Rev. Al Sharpton guest hosts on MSNBC .

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump!

They came.  They saw.  They (almost) conquered.

But almost wasn't quite good enough for Democrats on Tuesday in a a series of six Wisconsin Senate races that turned into a high-priced proxy war over national spending priorities.  Democrats knocked off two supporters of Republican Gov. Scott Walker's controversial budget-cutting and union-busting agenda, but fell just short of the prize they had been chasing for months: control of the chamber.

Voters returning Democrats to a majority in the state Senate would have been the clearest repudiation yet of the Republican agenda that liberal activists have railed against for much of this year.  Instead, Democrats and allied groups are left with more questions than answers.  And not just about Wisconsin.

From National Journal:
Who Will Be On the Super Committee?

Fed Opens Door to Stimulus

VIDEO: Pundits Drool Over Perry Entrance

GOP Chasing Young Voters for 2012

Kansas to Return $31.5M Health Exchange Grant

Organized labor was a major driver of the effort to recall Republicans, a contest that drew as much as $35 million, according to one estimate, into a state that is a traditional presidential battleground. Outside groups on both sides flooded the airwaves with ads in contested districts. 

Public employee labor unions have another fight looming in another swing state.  In a November referendum, they'll be trying to repeal an Ohio law that another freshman Republican governor, John Kasich, signed this year to curtail state workers' bargaining rights.  As in Wisconsin, the petition signature collection phase was energetic, with organizers collecting more than the requisite number of signatures to bring qualify for the ballot.  Public polling has indicated support for repeal, but the disappointment of Wisconsin raises questions about whether the wave of anger that put the repeal measure on the ballot will have subsided by November. 

In Wisconsin's wake, Democrats are also left asking themselves, how effectively their portrayal of a national GOP agenda will resonate with voters in down ballot races, moving toward 2012.  The recalls may have begun in response to Walker and his controversial "budget repair" bill that pared down collective bargaining for public employees, but by the time the campaigns were in full swing, Democrats and their allies were tying Walker's agenda to a national GOP spending priorities. 

If that message resonated on in the recalls, it was mainly in places where Democrats were expected to win Tuesday.  In the 32nd District, state Sen. Dan Kapanke was unseated by Democratic state Rep. Jennifer Shilling.  The district tilted Democratic; it voted for now-former Sen. Russ Feingold in 2010 and overwhelmingly for Democratic-backed JoAnne Kloppenburg in this year's state Supreme Court race. The Democrats' other victory in the 18th District was less clear-cut as a referendum on spending priorities: They unseated a flawed incumbent hamstrung by a string of negative personal headlines. 

Updated at 2:06 a.m.

Democrats picked up two state Senate seats during Tuesday's historic recall elections in Wisconsin, but fell short of retaking control of the upper chamber, as Republicans won four races, just enough to retain their edge.

With the five of the six contests wrapped up, all eyes were on the 8th District race early Wednesday, where an expensive, competitive, suburban Milwaukee battle went in favor of 19-year GOP state Sen. Alberta Darling over Democratic state Rep. Sandy Pasch. With 99 percent of precincts in the district reporting, the AP has called the race for Darling, who leads Pasch 54 percent to 46 percent.

Earlier, while the outcome of the race was still up in the air, Democrats sought to cast doubt on returns from Waukesha County, accusing the county clerk of "tampering with the results." But they later said they would not pursue questions of irregularities.

"The race to determine control of the Wisconsin Senate has fallen in the hands of the Waukesha County clerk, who has already distinguished herself as incompetent, if not worse," said Wisconsin Democratic Party Chairman Mike Tate late Tuesday. "She is once more tampering with the results of a consequential election and in the next hours we will determine our next course of action. For now, Wisconsin should know that a dark cloud hangs over these important results."

But early Wednesday morning, Tate backed away from his previous statement, saying "though we believe that Sandy Pasch was able to battle Alberta Darling to a virtual tie, on her turf, we will not pursue questions of irregularities. Those heat-of-the-moment statements came in light of the uncertainties that arose from a recent election, known too well."

Waukesha County Clerk Kathy Nickolaus has made headlines before, as recently as April, during the state Supreme Court race that was also viewed as a referendum on the state Republican agenda. Then, Nickolaus revealed after the election that a spreadsheet error caused over thousands of votes to go uncounted, a finding that meant GOP-backed incumbent David Prosser received 7,500 additional votes, enough to put him over the top.

Republicans claimed victory following Tuesday's results, while Democrats pointed to their success in picking up two seats.

"Today, Wisconsin voters rejected the reckless spending of Wisconsin Democrats and the downgrade-inducing policies of their Washington counterparts," said Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus. "They have given their seal of approval to Republicans' successful efforts to balance the budget and ensure a healthy economy."

"In a nearly unprecedented political event, Democrats collected the hundreds of thousands of signatures required to trigger recalls of six incumbent Republican state Senators who last won their seats in the overwhelming Democratic wave of 2008," said Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee Executive Director Michael Sargeant. "Picking up any one of these districts is an astounding electoral feat."

Democratic challenger Jessica King narrowly defeated Republican state Sen. Randy Hopper Tuesday in the recall election in the state's 18th senate district, giving Democrats a second victory in their bid to take control of the state senate. The AP called the race with all precincts reporting and King leading Hopper 51 percent to 49 percent.

Just one of the six contests remains undecided -- the 8th District contest between state Sen. Alberta Darling and Democratic state Rep. Sandy Pasch. Democrats need a Pasch victory to maintain their hopes of winning control of the chamber.

The district was considered a prime takeover opportunity for Democrats. In the 2008 presidential election, President Obama topped Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., 51.3 percent to 47.3 percent. In 2008, the first matchup between Hopper and King went to a recall, with Hopper ultimately prevailing by just 163 votes.

Earlier Tuesday, Republicans maintained control of the three seats held by Republican state Sen. Robert Cowles, Republican state Sen. Sheila Harsdorf and Republican state Sen. Luther Olsen, while Democratic challenger Jennifer Shilling unseated Republican state Sen. Dan Kapanke.

Republicans have won three races so far in Wisconsin's historic recall elections Tuesday, while a Democrat has won in the 32nd District. Two races remain up in the air -- tight contests in the 18th and 8th Districts -- and Democrats lead in both races.

Republican state Sen. Luther Olsen has held off his Democratic challenger, state Rep. Fred Clark, in the state's 14th District, giving Republicans their third victory Tuesday night - and so far, the most significant one. With 98 percent of precincts reporting, the AP has called the race for Olsen, who leads Clark 53 percent to 47 percent.

Despite the Republican tilt of the rural district that sits in the middle of the state, Democrats were optimistic about their chances in the race, and beyond districts 18 and 32, most viewed the 14th District as one of the top pickup opportunities for the party.

Democratic state Rep. Jennifer Shilling unseated Republican state Sen. Dan Kapanke in the 32nd District, giving Democrats their first win of the night. With 82 percent of precincts reporting, Shilling leads Kapanke 55 percent to 45 percent, according to the AP.

Observers considered Kapanke's 32nd District the most likely opportunity for a Democratic win on GOP turf. In April's state Supreme Court election, which was viewed as a referendum on Republican Gov. Scott Walker's controversial collective-bargaining bill, liberal challenger JoAnne Kloppenburg outpaced the conservative incumbent and eventual winner, Justice David Prosser, by a margin of 58.3 percent to 41.6 percent in the district. In the 2008 presidential election, President Obama beat Sen. John McCain 50.5 percent to 48.1 percent.

Earlier Tuesday, Republican state Sen. Sheila Harsdorf won in the 10th District and Republican state Sen. Robert Cowles won in the state's 2nd Senate District. Cowles was expected to win, and Harsdorf's race was believed to be leaning-Republican heading into Tuesday.

Democrats need to net three seats during the entirety of the recall elections (two Democrats face recall elections on Aug. 16) to retake control of the state Senate, which Republicans controlled 19-14 going into Tuesday.

Republican state Sen. Sheila Harsdorf will retain control of her 10th District seat, defeating Democratic challenger Shelly Moore. With 76 percent of precincts reporting, Harsdorf leads Moore 58 percent to 42 percent, according to the AP.

Harsdorf's district fell somewhere in the middle among races Democrats were targeting in the recalls. It was not viewed as a top pickup oppurtunity, nor was it viewed as the longest shot for a Democratic victory.

Earlier this evening, Republican state Sen. Robert Cowles held on to his seat in the 2nd District, an outcome most observers expected. Democrats need to net three seats after all of the recall elections are done (two Democrats face recall elections on Aug. 16) to retake control of the state Senate, which Republicans controlled 19-14 going into Tuesday.

Republican state Sen. Robert Cowles defeated Democratic challenger Nancy Nusbaum Tuesday in the recall election in the state's 2nd Senate District, allowing Republicans to maintain control of one of six seats they are defending in a series of recall matchups. The Associated Press called the race with 81 percent of precincts reporting and Cowles leading Nusbaum 58 percent to 42 percent.

The GOP-leaning 2nd District represented one of the safer GOP seats among those up for recall. Most observers expected Cowles to hold the seat. Democrats need to flip three Republican districts to take control of the state Senate and halt Republican Gov. Scott Walker's conservative agenda.

The recall elections arose out of the controversy surrounding the new law restricting collective-bargaining rights for public employees. Six GOP state senators face Democratic challengers on Tuesday, while two Democratic state senators will face Republican opponents next week. One Democrat, state Sen. Dave Hansen, won the first recall election last month, holding onto his seat.

The National Republican Congressional Committee is launching an ad campaign hitting Rep. Kurt Schrader, D-Ore., Hotline On Call has learned.

The three-week buy begins Wednesday, with Republicans arguing in the ominous 30-second spot that the health care reform law has cost the area jobs.

"There's a cloud over our economy -- Kurt Schrader's government takeover of health care," says the narrator. "Fear and uncertainty prevents new hiring; steep fines and new taxes on businesses."

The ad's kicker: "With Schrader and Obama, the storm will only get worse."

"Kurt Schrader's vote for the job-destroying $1 trillion government takeover of health care gutted $500 billion from Medicare and his plan to let the program go bankrupt will lead to severe cuts in benefits for seniors," said NRCC spokesman Tyler Houlton.

This isn't the first time this cycle Schrader's been the subject of GOP ads -- the two-term Democrat was among the first round of Members targeted by conservative group Crossroads GPS last month.

Watch the full ad after the jump.

Michigan Republican Gov. Rick Snyder signed into a law the state's congressional redistricting map on Tuesday, helping several vulnerable Republicans and leaving one Democrat without a district after the state lost a House seat in reapportionment. The map was passed by state Republicans last month, but still faces legal challenges and must pass muster with the Department of Justice.

Democratic Rep. Gary Peters was the odd man out in the redistricting musical chairs, seeing his district carved up. He now finds himself now in the same district as longtime Democratic Rep. Sander Levin. Running against one another isn't what either congressman wants, but both have made clear they will run for reelection regardless.

In a statement, Levin slammed Snyder for signing the "Republican gerrymander," but said if the maps stand, he'll run for reelection in the district where both he and Peters live.

"I testified against this map in Lansing and I will actively support every feasible effort to challenge the legality of this decision," said Levin. "If legal challenges are unsuccessful in overturning this map, I will run for reelection in the proposed 9th District, which contains three-quarters of the district that I now represent."

Peters, meanwhile, reiterated he will be a candidate in 2012, but didn't specify where he intends to run.

When state Senate President Mike Haridopolos suddenly left the Florida Senate race earlier this summer, former Sen. George LeMieux and former state House Majority Leader Adam Hasner were left as the two presumptive early front-runners in a GOP field many observers to expect to continue to grow. Meanwhile, another longshot Republican candidate is hoping his background will help him make gains in the race.

Retired Army Col. Mike McCalister, who ran in the Republican primary for governor in 2010 and finished with about 10 percent of the vote despite hardly raising any money is trying to make his mark in the Senate race.

"When we look at my political background, it's minimal," McCalister told Hotline On Call. "My real training, education, and experience is very pertinent to the role of a U.S. senator."

McCalister says that economic considerations are intertwined with national security. "It's all national security," he said. "For our country to have strong national security, we've got to have a strong economy, strong jobs and a strong balance sheet."

But to compete in Florida, which contains many major media markets, a candidate needs to show some financial ability. A glance at McCalister's most recent campaign finance report reveals he has a paltry $11,000 in the bank. McCalister says his campaign is just launching its fundraising effort. But he also filed a statement of candidacy with the Federal Election Commission in February. That means he has already had plenty of time to launch a more active fundraising operation.

In the wake of the prolonged debate over the federal debt limit, Americans have a less favorable opinion of the Republican Party, according to data from a new CNN/ORC International poll released Tuesday.

Only 33 percent of Americans have a favorable view of the GOP, while 59 percent said they hold an unfavorable view of the party. In the same poll conducted from July 18-20, 41 percent held a favorable view of Republicans and 55 percent had an unfavorable view.

The Tea Party also took a hit in popularity in the poll, with just 31 percent of Americans saying they have a favorable opinion of the movement -- down from 37 percent in July.

Support for the Democratic Party remained relatively steady: the percentage of Americans with a favorable opinion of Democrats went from 45 percent last month to 47 percent in the latest numbers. Just 47 percent have an unfavorable view of Democrats in the latest data.

House Speaker John Boehner also saw a decline in his numbers. In the new poll, just 33 percent of Americans said they had a favorable opinion of Boehner, while 40 percent had an unfavorable opinion. In July, 43 percent had a favorable view of Boehner and 32 percent had an unfavorable view.

Data released Monday from the same CNN/ORC poll showed a spike in economic pessimism.

The poll, which was conducted from Friday to Sunday, surveyed 1,008 Americans age 18 and over. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percent.

CORRECTION: The original version of this post incorrectly quoted PCCC co-founder Adam Green. He said if Democrats win four seats, it would reduce the possibility of GOP-aligned groups getting involved next week.

Wisconsin Republicans and Democrats have had today circled on their calendars for some time, as six GOP State senators face recall elections on what promises the pivotal day of the month-long process. But not to be forgotten are the two Democrats who face recall elections the following Tuesday, August 16.

The recall season will conclude next week with races in the 12th District, represented by state Sen. Jim Holperin and the 22nd District, represented by state Sen. Robert Wirch. Due to the makeup of his district, Holperin is viewed as more vulnerable.

"We're waiting to see what happens [today]," said Matt Capristo, communications director for Kim Simac, Holperin's Republican challenger. "Because that outcome is going to determine a lot. If the Senate majority is in balance, I think what we can expect is really just a lot of attention and a lot of resources coming in this way."

Democrats need to net three seats overall to take control of the Senate. If they win at least five races on Tuesday (a landslide most observers don't expect to see), they'll clinch the majority in the Senate, regardless of what happens next week. But if they win three or four seats, it means that the outcome of next week's races will determine which party claims the majority in the upper chamber.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Perry will be in the Palmetto State Saturday to remove any doubts that he is running for president. Meanwhile, Berg gets a primary challenger in North Dakota, while in Nevada, Amodei hits back against Marshall in a new ad. And in Indiana, is the Senate field set, or not? Here's today's rundown:

8) Perennial Republican Congressional candidate Duane Sand will run for the Senate in North Dakota, joining front-running Rep. Rick Berg in the GOP primary.

7) The National Republican Congressional Committee is launching robocalls against ten Democrats, criticizing the incumbents for opposing a Balanced Budget Amendment and charging them with responsibility for S&P's downgrade of the country's credit rating.

"Loebsack and his fellow Democrats' addiction to big government spending has led to a downgrade of America's credit rating and a dramatic loss in the global markets that could force you to pay more for everyday expenses," says the ad running against Rep. David Loebsack, D-Iowa.

In addition to Loebsack, the other nine Members being targeted are: Reps. Jason Altmire, D-Pa., Leonard Boswell, D-Iowa, Ben Chandler, D-Ky., Jim Costa, D-Calif., Jim Himes, D-Conn., Jerry McNerney, D-Calif., Brad Miller, D-N.C., and Bill Owens, D-N.Y.

Stephen Colbert tries to remain calm about the country's credit rating being downgraded to AA+,"Don't panic! Everything is fine. I'm just down here looking for my emergency hobo satchel."

Jimmy Kimmel, on the credit downgraded to AA+, "Which am I the only one who thinks that sounds pretty good. I'd settle for a BB+"

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 1:30, Conan O'Brien thinks some things in America still deserve a AAA rating.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump!

Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour endorsed former Sen. George LeMieux R-Fla., in the Sunshine State's GOP Senate race Monday, LeMieux's campaign announced.

"George is a solid conservative who served the people of Florida well in the U.S. Senate. I am happy to lend my support to his campaign," Barbour said in a statement.

The last time Barbour weighed in on a contested statewide primary in Florida was in 2010, when he waded into the GOP gubernatorial contest between then-state Attorney General Bill McCollum and now-Gov. Rick Scott. Barbour, then still chairman of the Republican Governors Association, intervened late in the race, asking Scott to take down a negative ad that was running against McCollum. Scott went on to defeat McCollum by less than three points.

In other Florida Senate news, the Palm Beach Post reported Sunday that NewsMax CEO Chris Ruddy has ruled out a Senate bid.

Another reminder of the relative disconnect often found between the way voters view gubernatorial candidates and the way they make their presidential picks arrives by way of newly released aggregated daily tracking data collected by Gallup during the first six months of the year.

According to Gallup, which tracked President Obama's job approval rating in every state during the first half of the year, the president's approval rating was 33 percent In West Virginia during the first half of the year, tied with Arkansas as the state giving Obama his fifth least positive approval rating during the period. Not far behind is Kentucky, where Obama has a 37 percent approval rating, tying North Dakota for 8th lowest.

What's striking is how well the Democratic gubernatorial nominees are doing in each state. Both are holding governor's elections this year, and Democrats are heavily favored in each race. In West Virginia, acting-Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin, a moderate Democrat on the mold of Sen. Joe Manchin, is trying to hold the state's top seat for his party as he faces a challenge from self-funding Republican businessman Bill Maloney.

In Kentucky, Democratic Gov. Steve Beshear is up big on Republican nominee David Williams according to recent polling and appears to be in solid position in his own reelection campaign. At Fancy Farm, on Saturday, Beshear unsurprisingly did not reference the president while Williams made repeated attempts to tie Beshear to Obama.

Gallup's results in West Virginia are based on interviews conducted with 637 adults as part of its daily tracking from Jan. 2-June 30, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 3.8 percent. In Kentucky, 1,396 adults were surveyed during the same period, with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percent. Each state's data is weighted so it is demographically representative of the state's population.

According to a new CNN/ORC International poll conducted as the nation's credit rating was downgraded by Standard & Poor's, a majority of Americans thinks the U.S. economy "is still in a downturn and conditions are going to worsen" for the first time in Barack Obama's presidency.

Fully 60 percent of Americans believe the economic downturn continues and will worsen. That is up sharply from mid-April, when just 36 percent thought the economy would worsen.

Just nine percent of Americans think the economy "is starting to recover from the problems it faced in the past year or so," down from 24 percent in April. Thirty-one percent think the recovery "has not started," but "conditions have stabilized and are not getting any worse."

The poll was conducted Friday to Sunday. S&P downgraded the U.S. debt from AAA to AA+ on Friday evening.

The poll comes after a week of mixed economic news. Last Tuesday, Obama signed a bill that raised the nation's debt limit and averted a government default. But the long and bitter process by which Congress passed the final bill turned off many Americans. In this poll, Americans are split on the final law: 48 percent approve of the bill when told it raises the debt ceiling and "makes major cuts in government spending over the next few years." But half of Americans still disapprove of the law.

On Thursday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 500 points, as Wall Street found the debt deal was unable to soothe its general economic anxieties.

On Friday morning, the Labor Department released the July unemployment report showing nominal job growth and upward revisions to May and June figures, which brought some relief to Wall Street. Just 38 percent of Americans said their confidence in the American economy was shaken by the fall of the stock market, while 60 percent said their confidence was unaffected. But that was before another significant sell-off early Monday.

The CNN/ORC International poll surveyed 1,008 Americans age 18 and over. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percent.

As Mississippi's 2011 filing deadline came and went in March, I wrote about Democrats' recent struggles in the state. The party failed to get a single candidate on the ballot for lieutenant governor, secretary of state, or auditor.

Last Tuesday's gubernatorial primaries showed what were, ostensibly, signs of encouragement for Democrats: more people voted in the Democratic primary than did in the GOP primary. But the AP takes a closer look at the numbers today, and finds that the unofficial tally of over 394,000 votes cast in the Democratic primary last week was well short of the over 446,000 votes were cast in the 2007 Democratic primary for governor. Turnout for the GOP gubernatorial primary, meanwhile was up this year to over 281,000 from 197,000 in 2007. Overall, that's an 11.7 percent drop for the Democrats and a 42.5 percent uptick for the Republicans.

As the AP notes, Democrats still dominate in most county-level offices. Thus, down-ballot action likely contributed to the high Democratic turnout. But statewide, the figures - and lack of candidates - should come as troubling news for the party.

One upside for Mississippi Democrats: the August gubernatorial runoff campaign between Hattiesburg Mayor Johnny DuPree and attorney Bill Luckett will give the party a chance to showcase two relatively new faces to voters statewide during a period of relative quiet on the Republican side.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Bill Halter is mulling a congressional bid in Arkansas, while in NV-02, a second Reno television statement has pulled an NRCC TV ad. Meanwhile, Jason Chaffetz is spending some time in Utah outside his home district while David Williams channels his inner Steve Martin at Fancy Farm. Here's today's rundown:

8) Former Arkansas Lt. Gov. Bill Halter, a Democrat, is mulling a challenge to Rep. Tim Griffin, R-Ark., in the 2nd District, Roll Call reports. Halter ran for the Senate but in 2010, but lost to now former Sen. Blanche Lincoln in the Democratic primary.

7) On Saturday, Democratic Gov. Steve Beshear and his GOP opponent David Williams both addressed Fancy Farm, the western Kentucky picnic that is the unofficial kickoff to the state's political season. The tone of the addresses -- Beshear avoided partisan barbs while Williams pulled no punches -- summed up the state of the race: Beshear, leading comfortably, is resisting attacks while Williams is blasting the governor's record. The Republican state senate president even managed to channel his inner Steve Martin when a heckler interrupted his address. "Leave the guy alone," Williams quipped to the audience. "I remember what it was like after I had my first beer; you'll be okay."

6) At "The Response," in Houston on Saturday, Texas Gov. Rick Perry sounded more like a reverend than a candidate, National Journal's Alex Roarty reports. But if Saturday's event illustrated Perry's appeal to religious conservatives, it also highlighted the possibility that it could jeopardize his support among moderates, even within the Republican Party.

Bill Maher thinks Republicans in Congress took FAA funding hostage, "Something that had been routine - funding the people who make flying our airplanes safe - that became controversial; came to a screeching halt. They fixed it yesterday for the time being. But you know it upset all the people that work at the airport. The air traffic controllers said when their sleeping on the job now it's not restful -- it's a fitful sleep."

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 1:20 to watch Jay Leno's video metaphor of a double-dip recession.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump.

It's August during an off-year, but it sure doesn't feel that way in Wisconsin.

Voters head to the polls Tuesday in a series of hyper-local elections that have attracted eyepopping sums of money and national attention. On the ballot: six Republican state senators facing recall elections. But more broadly, the elections are a referendum of GOP budget-cutting policies that will be central to the campaign next year for control of the White House and Congress.

Tuesday represents the most pivotal day of the months-long recall process that has polarized the state's electorate and attracted millions of dollars in outside spending from groups that wouldn't ordinarily wade into races so far down the ballot.

But the recall campaign, like most of 2011 in the Badger State, has been anything but ordinary.

The stakes are high, with control of the state's upper chamber hanging in the balance. Republicans hold a 19-14 advantage in the state Senate, so Democrats must net three seats during the recall election season to retake the majority. On August 16, two Democratic state senators face recall elections. One other Democrat who faced a recall defeated his opponent in July.

(MORE: The Wisconsin Recall Election Calendar)

What has been a tumultuous political year in the Badger State began back in February, when Republican Gov. Scott Walker unveiled his controversial budget bill, that curbed collective bargaining for public employees. It sparked heated protests in Madison, and led to a petition drive to recall Republican senators who supported the measure. In retaliation, GOP activists targeted Democrats who fled the state in an ultimately unsuccessful effort to block the budget's enactment, triggering recall elections in three Democratic districts.

The candidates aren't the only ones pouring money into these races. They've attracted outside interest groups ranging from, on the left, organized labor, EMILY's List, the Progressive Change Campaign Committee and Democracy for America to, on the right, Americans for Prosperity Wisconsin and Club for Growth Wisconsin.

The head of the Wisconsin Democracy Campaign, a nonpartisan watchdog group, estimates that spending has already topped $30 million, with candidates spending over $5.1 million. These are, by any estimation, staggering figures for state Senate contests.

One of the races that's attracted much of the the outside money is in the 8th District, where 19-year incumbent Alberta Darling is trying to hold on to her suburban Milwaukee seat in a swing area that has recently moved to the right. For both parties, symbolic and practical stakes can be found in Darling's race, where the relatively expensive Milwaukee television market has driven the high cost of competition.

It was a tale of two speeches in western Kentucky on Saturday afternoon.

Democratic Gov. Steve Beshear and Republican state Senate President David Williams showcased contrasting campaign strategies in back-to-back addresses at the 131st annual Fancy Farm Picnic, the unofficial kickoff to the Bluegrass State's political season and a forum that typically features sharp, animated speeches and rowdy audiences quick to heckle, cheer and boo.

Beshear steered clear of partisan barbs in a speech devoted to expressing his support for U.S. troops and veterans; his underdog Republican opponent, meanwhile, used his time on stage to launch a blistering attack on the incumbent's record.

"I know the great tradition of Fancy Farm," Beshear said. "I know that there should be great, fiery, partisan political rhetoric here and you've already heard a little bit of it. And quite honestly, a week ago, I was prepared to give just one of those speeches. And I'll tell you something, today, my heart and mind are not with partisan politics; my heart and mind are thousands of miles away with our troops."

Beshear recently returned from a trip to Iraq and Afghanistan where he and other governors met with U.S. troops. The Democrat's tack silenced some of the booing and chatter that began when he took the stage Saturday. It also makes long term political sense. Up big in the polls and enjoying a financial advantage over Williams, the incumbent can afford to play statesman.

"Come November, Kentucky will elect its next governor," Beshear said in closing. "And I have every confidence that Kentuckians will make the right decision. But I know this -- I know that I'm going to sleep better every night from now on knowing that this country's future is in the hands of men and women like I met last week."

When Williams took the stage, he immediately went after the front-running incumbent.

"Governor, congratulations on making your trip, you did the right thing," Williams said. "You did the wrong thing when you wouldn't leave the Oaks to go down to Fort Campbell."

What we at The Hotline learned this week:

-- This week marked the first in which Democratic strategists started to seriously worry about President Obama's chances of winning re-election. The economy is not going to be significantly better by this time next year, and Obama's even trailing top Republicans in states that are part of the so-called "blue wall." No wonder Democrats are sounding the alarm over purportedly lackluster fundraising; they're going to need every penny to reinvent their guy's image.

-- But if 2010 taught Democrats anything, it's how to re-elect an unpopular incumbent. Obama need look no farther than his Senate Majority Leader, who defied long odds to win another term. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's campaign was a classic example of discrediting the alternative in a voter's mind. If that's the only path available to President Obama, expect a very negative 2012.

-- Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who has long battled accusations of being a political opportunist, reinforced that image by waiting until the 25th hour to announce his opposition to the debt ceiling deal. Romney's strategy of staying below the radar has served him well so far, but his decision to speak up only after the battle had been fought and decided makes him vulnerable to perception that he's a "finger in the wind" politician. It also invited harsh rebukes from Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, all of whom had staked out positions much earlier.

-- The debt deal may be signed, but that doesn't mean the finger pointing will end this August recess. As members head home, both parties are starting blitzes to hold the other side accountable for the struggling economy. The reality they're likely to face: voters don't like either party. With polls consistently showing frustration with Congress in general - and the CNN/Opinion research poll just this week showing approval at an all-time low of 14 percent - both parties will get an earful.

-- Some have said that California's "top two" primary system might help elevate moderates of both parties into runoffs. But could it have the opposite effect in some cases? If one or both parties worry about getting shut out entirely from a runoff, they might be inclined to formally or informally anoint a preferred candidate, someone unlikely to stray too far from the party line. Perhaps a more effective system was the blanket primary system used by California and Washington in the 1990s, in which an individual could cast primary votes for candidates of any party, but the top vote-getters from each party still automatically advanced to the general. But that system was struck down by the U.S. Supreme Court in 2000.

Following a week in which lawmakers struck an eleventh hour debt compromise and the Dow suffered its largest drop since 2008, the focus of the Sunday shows will be the economy and job creation.

NBC's Meet the Press will host presidential candidates Sens. John McCain, R-Ariz. and John Kerry, D-Mass., and talk about the road ahead this fall and Washington's willingness be ready to make cuts in entitlement and defense spending?

On CBS' Face the Nation, President Obama's campaign strategist David Axelrod, Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., and former Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean will offer perspectives now that a debt ceiling limit deal is done and discuss what needs to be done to fix the economy and create jobs. On Fox News Sunday, Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis., and Legg Mason executive Bill Miller will analyze the new unemployment numbers.

ABC's This Week will feature a discussion with Maryland Gov. and Democratic Governors Association Chairman Martin O'Malley about what the White House can do to improve the economic outlook moving ahead. U.S. Ambassador to Syria Robert Ford, will also join the program, while Rep. Jason Chaffetz, R-Utah, will join the roundtable.

The Fox News Ames Republican Debate is next week and former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty will sit down with Chris Wallace to discuss preparations for the debate and expectations for the straw poll.

Tune into FNC this weekend on Saturday starting at 10 AM, when the network airs a live edition of "The Cost of Freedom" titled "On the Brink: Answers from the Abyss," in which host Neil Cavuto will take an in-depth look at this week's market sell off and speak to political and business leaders about the impact of the debt deal wand what needs to be done to get the economy going again.

Check out the full listings after the jump.

Updated at 10:33 p.m.

Can the Medicare lightning strike again in a special election for Democrats? Kate Marshall hopes it can in Nevada's 2nd District race.

The Democratic state treasurer released her third ad on Friday in the contest against Republican Mark Amodei, but the new spot strays from the solely economic debate which has been the primary focus in the race so far. In the new 30-second ad, Marshall hammers the former Nevada GOP chairman for his support of Rep. Paul Ryan's, R-Wis., budget plan that would revamp Medicare. It's a tactic that worked well for now-Rep. Kathy Hochul, D-N.Y., earlier this year in New York's 26th District race in a slightly more Republican-leaning district.

"Paul Ryan, I like a lot of what he has to say in terms of Medicare. I think that's excellent," Amodei says in one clip featured in Marshall's ad.

"Amodei thinks it's excellent to give seniors a voucher, double their out of pocket costs and give tax breaks to millionaires. Raise our taxes and cut our Medicare," says the ad's announcer.

"Kate Marshall needs to give up this over-used scare tactic and admit the truth: by endorsing ObamaCare, Kate Marshall supports the provisions that cut Medicare by $500 billion. She cannot have it both ways: she needs to stop these scare tactics and acknowledge she supports the Obama-Reid plan to cut Medicare," said Amodei spokesman Peter DeMarco. "Mark Amodei's support to preserve and protect Medicare for future generations is clear, and his vote as a State Senator proves it. Kate Marshall has never voted on anything - let alone Medicare. She really should get her facts straight, and it's pathetic that she feels the need to continue to lie.

The new spot is Marshall's second negative ad. While all of Amodei's own spots have been positive and focused on the economy and cutting spending, the National Republican Congressional Committee is already up on their air in the race, airing two negative spots against Marshall.

One of the ads the NRCC purchased to run in rotation through August 11 has been pulled off the air by Reno station KTVN, the AP reported late Friday, calling a claim that Marshall had supported a $500 million tax increase unsubstantiated

With the NRCC wading into the race, Republicans are showing signs of worry ahead of the September 13 contest, and other outside groups on both sides could still wade in.. At the end of June, Marshall had more than double the cash on hand that Amodei did. But she still faces an uphill battle next month - GOP voters outnumber Democratic voters in the district by nearly 31,000, but there are also 61,000 independent voters who will be in play.

Check out Marshall's new ad after the jump.

How do you handle a potentially career-threatening crisis? If you're Rep. Joe Walsh, R-Ill., the answer is by playing aggressive offense.

Walsh got hit last week by reports that he owes big bucks to a former wife for unpaid child support. Instead of hunkering down, Walsh is taking his case -- both for himself and against the Chicago Sun-Times -- to his constituents. In the first of a series of town hall meetings he plans over the next few weeks, Walsh on Thursday came right out and addressed the story.

"After I won last year, my ex-wife filed a lawsuit against me," Walsh told his audience, according to the Northwest Herald. "For the past eight months I have been trying to work it out privately and legally and haven't been able to."

The Libertyville Patch adds a few more quotes: "It's an ongoing legal proceeding that involves my kids. ... This is something I'm going to fight, but I'm going to do it privately and legally. There is no way the media will get me to talk about my three kids. I won't do it!"

Walsh was one of the biggest surprise winners in 2010, knocking off then-Rep. Melissa Bean in a suburban Chicago district. He's squarely in the sights of Illinois Democrats, who drew him out of his current district. The new 8th District leans heavily Democratic, but if he runs in the 14th District, where he now lives, he'll face a GOP primary against fellow freshman Rep. Randy Hultgren, R-Ill.

But if his response to the story says anything, it's that he's not going down without a fight.

Investor Wil Cardon will challenge Rep. Jeff Flake, R-Ariz., in the Republican primary for retiring-Sen. Jon Kyl's seat. The Phoenix Business Journal first reported the news.

Cardon, who is underscoring an economic message and said he would not have voted for the debt compromise, offered a familiar line in an interview with Hotline On Call -- saying the biggest difference between himself and the frontrunning Flake is that he is not a career politician.

"I've invested in companies, I've built companies, I've built communities, I've created jobs," Cardon said Friday. "I haven't theoretically talked about it. I've done it." Cardon is president and CEO of a real estate investment firm.

West Virginia Democrats won't swing for the fences after all, after a key state Senate panel rejected plans to gerrymander Reps. Shelley Moore Capito and David McKinley into the same seat.

Instead, the committee unanimously advanced a plan that does not change McKinley's 1st district, which takes in the state's northern panhandle. Capito's district, in the central part of the state, will cede Mason County to Rep. Nick Rahall, D, whose district needs to pick up around 30,000 residents.

The full state Senate could vote on the plan as early as today. The map is expected to be approved by the state House and signed into law by acting Democratic Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin, the Charleston Daily Mail reported.

Democrats may have been anxious about drawing Capito into a difficult race for fear she would challenge Sen. Joe Manchin, who is seeking a full term in 2012.

Meanwhile, with the composition of McKinley's swing district expected to remain identical, the Democrat he defeated in 2010, ex-state Sen. Mike Oliverio, has been "hanging around" the Statehouse in Charleston this week, in the words of the Charleston Gazette.

Ohio's Republican Treasurer Josh Mandel, the 33-year- old Iraq War veteran, put his campaign on the map with an eye-popping fundraising haul. But it isn't just the fundraising that makes him a formidable challenger to Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio.

His biography is the kind consultants love: a Marine who served two tours in Iraq, a state legislator who won in a tough Cleveland-area seat, and a statewide officeholder when he's only in his 30s (and looks even younger).

Despite his profile, Mandel's Senate campaign has been largely invisible. He hasn't held a formal campaign kickoff, isn't stumping around the state and has been sparing in giving interviews to national outlets.

But Mandel agreed to chat with Hotline On Call about his campaign, why he's been staying off the trail, his thoughts about the Ohio political climate and his eye-catching fundraising.

The Invisible Candidate It's been a strange kabuki play in Ohio when it comes to his Senate candidacy. Even though he's been actively raising money, and been meeting with Senate campaign officials in Washington, he's hesitated to say he's running.

Mandel offered little in the way of details about his future plans, saying only that an official campaign kickoff "will be coming sometime in the near future," and that "instead of doing campaign bus tours around the state, I'm doing business around the state to small businesses and asking them, how, as state treasurer, can I help them cut through red tape and grow their company to create jobs here in Ohio."

The United States picked up 117,000 jobs in July and revised upward another 56,000 jobs from May and June -- two bright spots after an awful week of economic news. Dow futures jumped about 100 points. The unemployment rate fell slightly to 9.1 percent.

The Labor Department report provided a slight boost to a stumbling economy.

The median estimate for Friday's number was 85,000. About 125,000 jobs per month are needed to keep the unemployment rate steady, while about 200,000 a month would bring it down a percentage point over a year, according to several economists.

Read more on NationalJournal.com.

Updated at 8:52 a.m.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Rick Scott's inches upward into presidential territory, Kentucky's Fancy Farm festivities begin this weekend, while Kucinich is feeling the love in Washington state. Meanwhile, Congress sets a new record - and it's not a good one. Here's today's rundown:

7) Obama hits 50; Dow drops 500: As President Obama was celebrating his half-century mark at the White House Thursday, he can't have been too happy with the present Wall Street was delivering. The precipitous decline in stock prices is prompting fears of a double-dip recession and comparisons to the "malaise" era of Jimmy Carter - not a president that anyone with aspirations for a second term wants to emulate. Next up (or down?): Today's unemployment figures.

6) Rep. Dennis Kucinich, D-Ohio, received a "hero's welcome" at a high-profile union confab in Washington state Thursday, the Seattle Times reports. Kucinich delivered a fiery address at the Washington State Labor Council that had the audience joining him in chants of "We are union!" He hasn't decided where he'll run but he did say "I like coming here. It's friendly and I feel at home. I keep getting invitations. Now the invitations are starting to come in several a week." State Democratic Party chair Dwight Pelz continues to oppose a Kucinich run in Washington's 1st District.

5) Florida Republican Gov. Rick Scott saw his dismal job approval rating inch upwards to 35 percent according to Quinnipiac University. It's an improvement from his 29 percent approval rating in May. Fifty-two percent of Florida voters disapprove of the way he is handling his job, down from 57 percent in the May survey.

As bad as Scott's numbers still are, they're in the same ballpark as President Obama's in the state. Among independents, Scott has an identical 33 percent approval rate to the president. And his overall disapproval rating is just one point higher than the president's.

All the late-night hosts wished President Obama a happy birthday last night. David Letterman on Obama's birthday presents: "What can you really get for the President. But he got some lovely things ... China gave him an extension on his rent."

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 1:00, Stephen Colbert can't believe that Obama had the nerve to celebrate his birthday while the nation is in crisis.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump!

Let the August messaging wars begin.

The Democratic and Republican House campaign committees offered sneak peeks today of the talking points they'll use and the way they'll put pressure the opposition as members head back to their districts for the August recess.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee announced their "Accountability August" push, a drive that includes radio ads, billboards, gas station advertising, canvassing, phone banks and robocalls targeting 44 Republican members and GOP recruits on the budget and the economy. The DCCC has also launched an action center at MillionairesOverMedicare.com where voters can find out information about their representative and learn about town halls and protests.

"House Republicans' priorities are clear. They have repeatedly chosen Millionaires and Big Oil over Medicare and voters are holding them accountable for it," DCCC Chairman Steve Israel said in a statement. "Republicans will have to explain to their constituents why they voted to end Medicare three times and raise seniors health care costs in order to protect tax breaks for millionaires, billionaires and Big Oil. Republicans will have to defend the indefensible."

Radio ads the House Democrats' campaign arm is launching echo the Medicare messaging they've been hammering home since Rep. Paul Ryan's, R-Wis., budget passed the House this spring.

"Congressman Charlie Bass voted to end Medicare forcing seniors to pay more to protect tax breaks for Big Oil and millionaires. Tell Bass stop choosing millionaires over seniors," says an ad running against the New Hampshire freshman.

Republicans, too, are preparing their members to talk to their constituents, underscoring ways they say they have cut spending and helped create jobs since taking control of the House in January.

In a memo from National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Pete Sessions to the GOP caucus titled "Saying On Offense," Sessions argues that Democrats will launch Astroturf campaigns operated and funded by left-wing interest groups in an effort to purchase support for their failed agenda. "With the big-spending Stimulus and Recovery Summer campaigns bombing out, now Democrats are defaulting to style over substance even claiming that jobs aren't that important," Sessions writes.

Sessions also says the 2012 fight will be driven by President Obama at the top of the ticket, and points to the declining moderate ranks within the party and recent retirements from Blue Dog Democrats as evidence of an increasingly liberal opposing party.

"Nevertheless, in the coming months Democrats hype and hubris will continue to grow. Democrats underestimated the American people last election, and they will do it again in 2012," says Sessions.

For a full list of the DCCC's targets, click below the jump.

The timing couldn't have been worse for Wednesday's meeting between American Conservative Union Chairman Al Cardenas and a gay Republican group.

Cardenas said the purpose of the meeting was to have a "constructive conversation" after ACU decided to ban the group, GOProud, from hosting a booth at CPAC, the annual gathering of conservative activists in 2012.

But the day before the meeting with GOProud in Washington, an anti-gay tirade by Cardenas's wife on Facebook was publicized on a Miami Herald blog. Her comments were in response to a posting about the recent comments from Texas Gov. Rick Perry about marriage between same-sex couples.

"Well, there is no reason not to like them or love them, the same way you would love one who has a disability, or an illness, etc.," Diana Cardenas wrote. She added: "You know I always wondered why homosexuals are referred to as 'gay', kind of an oxymoron? Nothing really 'gay' about them or their movement."

Cardenas said of the previously scheduled meeting with GOProud: "It was not easy." He added: "I love my wife more than life and I think we agree on the issue of traditional marriage, but I disagree with some of the things that she said."

Jimmy LaSalvia, GOProud's executive director, said he made it clear in the meeting with Cardenas that he had read what his wife wrote. Most of the discussion, he said, concerned the ACU's decision to exclude GOProud from the 2012 conference. The group's attendance at CPAC earlier this year triggered boycotts by a handful of other participants.

"I expressed my disappointment," he said. "Our work to defeat Barack Obama won't be happening at CPAC, but it will be happening."

Oregon Democratic State Senator Suzanne Bonamici announced Thursday that she will run for former Rep. David Wu's, D-Ore., seat in the January special election and said campaign has raised over a quarter of a million dollars during the last five days.

Bonamici's announcement today follows months of speculation that she would get into the race, after her husband quit as Wu's longtime personal attorney in April. That month, Bonamici announced she had formed an exploratory committee for the seat, but had remained relatively quiet until now. She will face state Rep. Brad Witt and state Labor Commissioner Brad Avakian in the Democratic primary.

Bonamici's campaign also said that they have raised a staggering $240,000 over the last five days in contributions and pledges. Kevin Looper, a Bonamici spokesperson, said $100,000 of that haul was in the form actual donations, and the rest represents pledges to the campaign. Though Bonamici has yet to contribute to her campaign out of her own coffers, Looper says she plans to in the future.

Because the campaign has gone over the $5,000 contribution limit for an undeclared candidate, they have 15 days to file a statement of candidacy with the Federal Election Commission. Laura Terrill Patton, another Bonamici spokesperson, said that the campaign has yet to file their paperwork, but said they would do so in the next few days.

In a statement today, Bonamici's campaign said they had outraised both of their Democratic opponents combined, despite the fact that Witt has yet to release his fundraising numbers. Asked for comment, Looper said that if Witt "had a bunch of money," his campaign likely would have announced it already. Witt's campaign director, Katherine Pfeiffer said they were not yet ready to make any fundraising announcements, but welcomed Bonamici to the race. "Our response to Sen. Bonamici['s] announcement: Congratulations! We expect it to be a lively and competitive race and are looking forward to continuing taking our campaign to the voters," Pfeiffer said in an email.

Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., says he is planning to run for reelection in 2014, and has already begun fundraising. "This is the job I want; this is the job I'm enjoying doing," Kerry said Thursday, according to the AP.

Rumors have swirled that the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee has been positioning himself to succeed Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in Foggy Bottom (Clinton has said she doesn't plan to continue on for a second term at the State Department), should President Obama win reelection in 2012. But Kerry dismissed those rumors Thursday, the AP reports.

Kerry's announcement also leaves an imprint on the 2012 Massachusetts Senate race, where certain Democratic Members of the U.S. House delegation have been tempted to pass on a bid against the well-funded Sen. Scott Brown, R-Mass., in favor of waiting to see if Kerry retires in 2013.

While it's still not completely out of the question that Kerry could be moving on in 2013, his decision to announce this early that he is running for reelection in 2014 may convince some Democrats looking for a promotion to give the Brown race a closer look.

It wouldn't be August without a political crisis of some degree. This year, it's President Obama's campaign that's trying to claim the crisis mantle. In the last two days, Obama's campaign has sounded the alarm -- twice -- that they're not in the solid position everyone believes.

First, campaign manager Jim Messina told the Associated Press the campaign's fundraising pace is seriously slowing down. The explanation: The debate over the debt ceiling forced the campaign to postpone fundraising events over a series of weeks.

"We're going to raise significantly less in the third quarter than we did in the second quarter," Messina told the AP. "We will not be able to replace all of these events just because of his busy schedule. We always knew that he had his job and we had to do this around his schedule, and the truth is we just have to deal with canceling a month's worth of events."

Then, a top campaign adviser tried to throw cold water on Democratic activists' confidence in Obama's re-election prospects. A series of public polls have showed the president tied with or losing to Republican candidates, most notably Mitt Romney, in battleground states like New Hampshire, Ohio, Florida, Iowa, Michigan and Pennsylvania (Michigan and Pennsylvania are part of the so-called "Blue Wall," states that have voted Democratic in every election since 1992). And with the economy seemingly headed in exactly the wrong direction, nothing is breaking Obama's way.

"The numbers add up to defeat," one top Obama adviser told Politico. Added Democratic strategist Geoff Garin: "There has been a false sense of confidence among a lot of Democratic activists.

The mood at Obama campaign headquarters has changed notably in recent weeks, according to a number of Democratic sources. But others think there's a reason to project a kind of nervous pessimism: It can help open checkbooks that have remained stubbornly shut.

Obama's campaign and outside Democratic groups that are planning to run ads on his behalf have constantly worried about money. Consensus among the Democratic giving class is that Republicans will nominate a deeply flawed candidate who won't be able to win next November. But Obama's team still needs to rebuild the kind of campaign they ran in 2008, when they left little to chance.

Here's a lesson for politicians: Sign papers first, then have a drink. When you do it the other way around, you can run into problems.

Sunland Park mayor Martin Resendiz admitted that he was drunk when he signed contracts with a California company suing his city for $1 million, the Albuquerque Journal reports.

"The day I signed ... I had way too much to drink. It was after 5 p.m. and I signed it (the contracts) and I didn't know what I was signing," Resendiz wrote in response to questions from lawyers for the architectural design firm Synthesis. "My sister had to pick me up."

Resendiz isn't just the mayor - he also said he's exploring a campaign against Rep. Steve Pearce, R-N.M.

The front page of the newspaper, via the Albuquerque Journal website, is tailor made for an opposition ad: