September 2011

Back in July of 2001, Hotline's Media Monitor featured then Time Magazine White House correspondent Jay Carney. Now that he's White House Press Secretary and we thought we'd provide a look back at his interview.

Where's your hometown? What was it like growing up there?

I'm a rare Washington, D.C. native. Born at Georgetown Hospital. Grew up in the Virginia 'burbs, though. Was an odd place in some ways, very transitory. The D.C. suburbs lack a sense of identity, though politics was a bigger deal here than in most hometowns of course. In 1974, I think it was, I remember finding a discarded strand of audio tape along the curb of my street -- probably from an 8-track -- and being convinced I had stumbled across the missing minutes of the Watergate tapes. I was 9.

What was the last book you read?

Not counting political and history books, "Death in Summer" by William Trevor. Trevor is brilliant, though very spare and bleak. John McCain recommended him to me on his trip to Vietnam a year ago. "Blindness" by Jose Saramago before that. Am now re-reading "Love in the Time of Cholera," which I came across recently. Extremely romantic, but not soft. Garcia Marquez' prose is muscular, potent stuff.

Who's your favorite musician/band?

Without question, the greatest rock and roll band in the history of the world is Guided By Voices, Dayton, Ohio's gift to American culture. The older stuff -- from the mid-90s -- is best. If you love melodic, lo-fi pop with a touch of lyrical genius, go buy "Bee Thousand," "Propeller" or "Alien Lanes."

What's your favorite color?

I'm with Tapper. Who has a favorite color at 36?

What's your favorite place to shop?

Starbucks. And Olsson's.

What's your favorite restaurant in Washington?

Zuki Moon, maybe. Or Ten Penh. Most frequented: Burrito Brothers. What's your favorite food? Used to think I could live on humus and pita. Not anymore. Now I think it's Vietnamese clay pot caramel pork.

How did you end up in journalism?

This weekend, the Sunday shows will host four current governors to discuss the economy and 2012. Virginia Republican Gov. Bob McDonnell and Massachusetts Democratic Gov. Deval Patrick will be on Meet the Press, while Maryland Democratic Gov. Martin O'Malley and Mississippi Republican Gov. Haley Barbour will be on Face the Nation. On Fox News Sunday, FedEx CEO Fred Smith and BET chairman Robert Johnson will join the conversation about the business climate

The death of American born Al Qaeda leader Anwar al-Awlaki will also be a topic this weekend as Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., will be on Face the Nation. On State of the Union, Dick Cheney, former Assistant Secretary of State Liz Cheney, former Rep. Jane Harman, D-Calif., and former CIA Director Gen. Michael Hayden will analyzing the impact of the death.

Both Fox News Sundayand This Week will interview former Godfather's Pizza CEO Herman Cain on his campaign's surge a week after winning the Florida straw poll.

Get the full listings after the jump.

Florida Republican leaders officially set the state's presidential primary for Jan. 31, 2012, challenging the preeminence of the traditional early-voting primary states and ensuring that Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada will move up their dates in order to vote ahead of Florida as they have in the past.

Under rules set last year by the Republican National Committee, any state attempting to leapfrog the early four by setting its primary date before March 6 would lose half of its delegates. By prioritizing the state's influence on the nominating process over its delegate count, Florida Republicans will now lose half of 99 delegates to next year's convention, which will be held in Tampa.

Reaction from the traditional early states was highly negative as expected.

States have until the end of Saturday to inform the RNC of the date they've chosen for their nominating contests--though that midnight deadline, like other RNC rules, appears flexible. Now that Florida has formally jumped into late January, the four early states are scrambling to set an agreeable schedule for their contests.

Read the complete story on NationalJournal.com.

BOSTON--Alan Khazei, the self-described underdog in the Massachusetts Senate Democratic primary, is working to claim ground as the pragmatic deal-maker in the race and position Elizabeth Warren as an intractable partisan.

Khazei told National Journal he would agree to cuts in entitlement programs Washington Democrats have defended -- including Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid -- in order to reduce the deficit. He said he would have joined the Gang of Six and praised Republican Sen. Lamar Alexander, R-Tenn., who dropped out of leadership last week because, he said, he wanted to operate with "an independent attitude."

"I'm one candidate who is saying you need both sides of the balance sheet," Khazei told National Journal, saying he would endeavor for a "grand bargain" deficit reduction blueprint. "I wouldn't start and say you can't do anything on Social Security, you can't do anything on Medicare. Because we have to do a grand bargain."

With one day left in third-quarter fundraising, Khazei declined to provide even a ballpark estimate of his take, saying only he would not match last quarter's $925,000 haul and was "on track" to meet his budget, which he did not disclose. A Khazei adviser said it was important not to reach $500,000 for the quarter, but instead to be "well north of anyone but Warren" and that Khazei would reach that goal. It was important, the adviser said, to top Newton Mayor Setti Warren's total -- less of a factor after Setti Warren quit the race Thursday, citing "overwhelming political and financial odds."

The new, center-seeking strategy is a gamble for Khazei: taking ground to the right of his front-running opponent in a Democratic primary. He is pinning its success on the hope that voters will choose a more pragmatic candidate whose goal is constructive compromise over the take-it-to-'em figure Warren has cultivated in the early days of her campaign.

Late-night hosts on Thursday took aim at President Obama's Q&A with Hispanic journalists held at the White House this week, spoofing the discussion.

Don't miss today's Must See Moment at 1:28 where New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie responds to David Letterman making jokes about the potential presidential contender's weight:

Take our late-night poll after the jump...

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Team Romney sets financial expectations as the third quarter comes to a close, Arizona gets its debate on Dec. 1, Obama's team is looking at a different path to reelection and Tuesday is a state holiday in West Virginia. Here's today's rundown:

10) CNN and the Arizona Republican Party will co-host a GOP presidential debate on Dec. 1, bringing the number of debates this year to 13 -- not including those scheduled for early 2012.

9) According to the latest Fairleigh Dickinson University poll of New Jersey voters, Sen. Bob Menendez, D-N.J., beats state Sens. Joe Kyrillos and Michael Doherty -- two possible Republican challengers -- in head-to-head matchups. Menendez leads Kyrillos 49 percent to 28 percent and head leads Doherty 49 percent to 30 percent. A plurality of voters - 47 percent - don't know or have no opinion of Menendez while 30 percent have a favorable view of the senator and 23 percent have an unfavorable view.

8) The Progressive Change Campaign Committee is rolling out its latest list of House endorsements today: state House Speaker Chris Donovan (D), running in Connecticut's open 5th District; 2010 nominee Ann McLane Kuster (D), eyeing a rematch with Rep. Charlie Bass, R-N.H., in New Hampshire's 2nd District; and progressive activist Ilya Sheyman (D), running to challenge freshman Rep. Bob Dold, R-Ill., in Illinois's 10th District.

7) Sen. Jon Tester, D-Montana, isn't happy about a recent NRSC web ad that portrays him with five fingers on his right hand even though he lost three fingers in a childhood accident with a meat saw, the Great Falls Tribune reports. Republicans said Thursday that someone else's left hand was accidentally left in the photo when people in the background were cut out to show just Tester and President Obama.

CBS's Face the Nation won the Sept. 25th Sunday show viewership battle, narrowly edging out NBC's Meet the Press by 33,000 viewers. It's a rare win for Face The Nation over Meet The Press, which has won 56 consecutive quarters and 14 consecutive seasons.

But even as CBS had slightly more viewers, with 2.521 million people tuning in on Sunday, Face The Nation and Meet the Press tied in ratings, with each garnering a 1.8 rating/5 share, while ABC's This Week with Christiane Amanpour came in third with 1.984 million viewers and a 1.5 rating/4 share and Fox News Sunday had a 0.9 rating/2 share.

"We always like it when we win, and I'm sure they do too," Face The Nation moderator Bob Schieffer told Hotline On Call, "David Gregory and I are friends. Tim Russert and I were very close friends. We all enjoy competing against one another. Just because it's because it's your competitor doesn't mean you have to hate him."

Face the Nation's guests were Democratic National Committee Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Republican National Committee Chair Reince Priebus. They discussed the most recent GOP presidential debate and President Obama's 2012 outlook.

America hates Congress. Democratic Insiders blame Republicans. Republican Insiders blame everybody. Those are the results of the latest National Journal Political Insiders Poll, which asked Insiders whom they considered most responsible for Americans' record-low opinions of Congress.

In the tightening West Virginia governor's race, some Democrats see very encouraging signs for acting Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin in the state's early voting figures. They note that 58 percent of early votes have been cast by registered Democrats in a state where Democrats represent 53 percent of overall registration. But this is only half the story, because 34 percent of early votes have been cast by Republicans, even though they only represent 29 percent of registered voters.

In other words, there are 1.73 early Democratic votes for every Republican vote, when (by pure registration), it should be closer to 1.84 Democrats per Republican vote. So although Democrats are clearly voting early far more than registered independents, Republicans appear more fired up than either group.

Of course, some would argue "Who cares? That's still far more Democrats than Republicans casting ballots." But let's remember what a "West Virginia Democrat" really is. Party registration is often a lagging indicator, sometimes by decades, when it comes to a state's partisan preferences. Oklahoma, President Obama's worst state in 2008, still has more registered Democrats than Republicans. Kentucky and Louisiana, both deeply red at the federal level, also have more registered Democrats than Republicans. These are all states with very little in-migration, where many voters have been on the rolls for decades, having registered back in the days when Democratic primaries were tantamount to electoral victory. It's clear that many registered Democrats in states such as these have consistently started to vote Republican in election after election.

Move over, Iowa. Make room, New Hampshire. Florida could be the new presidential kingmaker, according to the results of this week's National Journal Political Insiders Poll. Strategists and advisers from both parties said the Sunshine State will be more important than Iowa, New Hampshire, or South Carolina in determining the 2012 Republican nominee for president.

Updated at 1:41 p.m.

Former Wisconsin state Sen. Ted Kanavas won't be running for the Senate in 2012, he announced Thursday.

"The decision was really made largely based on the practical inability to get to about six million dollars for fundraising," Kanavas, who had spent the summer considering a run, told Hotline On Call in a brief phone interview.

One major factor in Kanavas's decision-making process? Former Gov. Tommy Thompson.

"Tommy, by virtue of his name ID and fundraising base, would make it difficult for me because we have similar backgrounds," said Kanavas, who served as Thompson's Waukesha County coordinator during his first gubernatorial bid in 1986.

Despite the fact that Kanavas has known Thompson for decades and says they "have a lot of the same friends," he isn't endorsing him or anyone else in the race right now.

"I'm probably not going to endorse in the race," Kanavas said, adding, "I may change my mind on that based on what happens."

Thompson was quick to praise Kanavas.

From our story this morning on NationalJournal.com:

Acting Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin is trying to hold his seat for Democrats in a tightening contest. Republicans are marshaling their resources in the final week before the Oct. 4 election to tie Tomblin to the president in the hopes of nationalizing a gubernatorial contest, even though history suggests it's not a very promising strategy.

Following the 2010 elections, the University of Minnesota's "Smart Politics" political news website analyzed 550 statewide presidential election results dating back to 1968 and found no correlation between states won by Democratic and Republican presidential nominees and the partisan control of the governor's mansion.

But that's not stopping Republicans from making a late push to tie the White House to the governorship in a state where the president's brand is more unpopular than it is in most other places across the country. According to aggregated Gallup Daily tracking data from January through June of 2011, Obama's approval rating in the Mountain State is 33 percent, placing it among the bottom ten states for the president.

Because of the parochial nature of gubernatorial politics, it's difficult to draw sweeping conclusions about national trends based on the results of one race. If Tomblin wins, many factors -- including the strength of his fundraising, the state's natural Democratic tilt and the skill of his campaign -- will have contributed to his victory.

If Maloney wins, it gives down-ballot Democrats another reason to separate themselves from the president. But other factors besides voters' attitudes towards the president also will have played a part. Chief among them, Maloney's self-funding, and his resume: He's businessman who has never held public office running against a 36-year veteran of the state legislature.

Late-night hosts poked fun at the speculation around whether or not New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie will run for president on Wednesday night. Jimmy Kimmel suggests that the only thing that could convince Christie to run would be a a bucket of crispy fried chicken.

Don't miss today's Must See Moment at 1:56 where Jon Stewart does an impression of Sarah Palin:

Take our late-night poll after the jump...

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Brunner's ready to launch in Missouri, the Obama administration requests a Supreme Court review of the health care law and Charlie Crist and President Obama find their way into the headlines together once again. Here's today's rundown:

9) President Obama's trip to Orlando on Oct. 11 is for two fundraisers, one of which will be at the home of John Morgan, of the law firm Morgan & Morgan, where Charlie Crist now works, the St. Petersburg Times reports. No word on whether Crist will attend...or if there is a hug in the works.

8) With three days left for early voting in the West Virginia governor's race, Democratic voters are keeping up an impressive pace. 58 percent of all early/absentee ballots cast have been from Democrats, according to the latest tally.
Meanwhile, the RGA's latest ad is popping up on D.C. area broadcast stations. It's a notably more expensive market to buy time in when compared to the rest of the state. The Eastern panhandle and the north, the areas closest to DC, are GOP-leaning areas and the Republicans are working to boost turnout in the critical region.

7) The New Hampshire Union Leader reports the chairs of the Republican parties in New Hampshire, Iowa, South Carolina and Nevada will issue a joint statement today critical of the apparent attempt by Florida to move its primary to Jan. 31 and to demand that the Republican National Committee not penalize the four states for being forced to move their primaries up. The reaction is not surprising and reinforces the likelihood of the beginning of the caucus/primary season being moved up if Florida does vote on Jan. 31.

Rep. Mazie Hirono, D-Hawaii, is racking up some early labor endorsements, a sign of both her initial momentum, and the extent to which she is working to build a coalition to address questions about the strength of her candidacy.

The latest: a nod from the state's largest public-sector labor union, on the heels of an endorsement from the state AFL-CIO.

One question mark surrounding Hirono is electability in a Senate race against former Gov. Linda Lingle, who defeated her in the 2002 governor's race. (Hirono narrowly defeated former Rep. Ed Case in the primary that year.) Having President Obama -- who is very popular in the state -- on the ticket makes 2012 a very different electorate from 2002 and Lingle hasn't even said she's running yet. But Case, who'll be no pushover in the primary, only fueled doubt about Hirono when he released a poll showing him defeating Lingle, but Hirono losing to her.

Hirono has better labor ties than Case, and is flexing that muscle early. Case told the Honolulu Star-Advertiser the HGEA and the state AFL-CIO did not meet with him before issuing endorsements. While some Democrats have expressed doubt about Hirono's chances, she's racked up some early support from prominent local and national groups.

The presence of the state's political behemoths, Sens. Daniel Akaka and Daniel Inouye at a recent Hirono fundraiser in Washington was yet another reminder of which candidate the Democratic establishment favors, if not officially.

CORRECTION: The previous version of this post gave the incorrect date for the upcoming debate. It is Oct. 4.

Newton Mayor Setti Warren plans to drop out of the Massachusetts Senate race Thursday, a Warren adviser confirmed to Hotline On Call.

The Boston Globe first reported that an early supporter of the campaign confirmed that Setti Warren would make an announcement about the future of his campaign Thursday morning.

Warren was intially regarded as a potential Democratic frontrunner to take on Sen. Scott Brown, R-Mass., but his most recent fundraising report showed was very unimpressive, showing his campaign to be in debt. Since the entrance of Elizabeth Warren into the race earlier this month, it has been difficult for the mayor or the other Democratic candidates running in the primary to get any attention.

Warren's exit comes immediately before a third-quarter campaign finance reporting deadline that was expected to throw into even sharper relief the struggles of his candidacy with Elizabeth Warren's and City Year founder Alan Khazei's.

The Newton mayor was also facing a rearguard action in his hometown, where political leaders were dissatisfied with Warren's eagerness to pursue higher office midway through his term.

While Elizabeth Warren is considered the clear frontrunner in the Democratic field, five other candidates remain in the race. Khazei, who raised a substantial amount of money during the last fundraising period, appears to be the biggest threat to Elizabeth Warren. The entire Democratic primary field is slated to debate for the first time Oct. 4 at UMass Lowell.

The Republican Governors Association is using its final ad in West Virginia to tie acting Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin to President Obama by hitting him for not joining other governors in fighting the implementation of the president's health care plan.

"Experts say the Obama health care plan will make our economy even worse," says the ad's narrator. "So what's Governor Tomblin doing about it? Absolutely nothing."

"Stop Obama. Stop Earl Tomblin from implementing Obamacare," the ad concludes.

As Sean Sullivan wrote earlier this week, a ramped up effort to try to tie Tomblin to Obama -- who's extremely unpopular in the state -- was expected in the last days before the October 4 election.

Meanwhile, businessman Bill Maloney's campaign is letting the RGA attack while it ends the campaign on a more positive note, running an ad where Maloney defends himself against charges from opponents that he's a carpetbagger.

EAST BOSTON--Huddled in a wood-paneled pizzeria backroom among neighborhood businessmen, Sen. Scott Brown, R-Mass., didn't sound fazed by Democrat Elizabeth Warren, who announced her campaign against him earlier this month.

"Here's Martha Coakley," Brown said, gesturing directly in front of him before stretching his hand far to his left. "And here's Elizabeth Warren."

Pointing to a recent video featuring Warren at a meet-and-greet making the argument for more government regulation in private life, Brown said she was engaging in class warfare.

"I tell you what I'm not going to do. I'm not going to demonize employers and make them out to be bad," Brown said.

Warren has burst onto the Massachusetts political scene as Brown's likely challenger in the state's closely-watched Senate race, jumping in the race after heavy recruitment from Washington Democrats. The 2012 Senate race here is highly prized in both parties, one of the few opportunities Democrats have to pick off a Republican-held seat.

Warren has benefited from widespread media coverage, and hopes to use her celebrity to raise national money. She'll need it - Brown amassed a $9.6 million warchest through June.

It seems those pesky straw polls can be of some value, after all.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has repeatedly tried to marginalize the importance of straw polls this election cycle, but that doesn't mean he's not paying attention to the results -- and looking to capitalize on them when favorable to his candidacy.

Despite declining to campaign for the National Journal Hotline/National Association of Home Builders straw poll last weekend on Mackinac Island, Mich., Romney was eager to tout the poll's results today on MSNBC's Morning Joe when discussing his courtship of conservative voters.

"I saw last weekend in the straw poll in Michigan, for instance, the majority of tea partiers supported my effort. That's good news for me," Romney said. "I got the largest -- the plurality of the tea party votes in Michigan."

To be precise, Romney won a plurality -- not a majority -- of tea party votes. He won 34 percent of the 278 ballots cast by self-described tea party voters, more than doubling the total of his closest competitor, businessman Herman Cain, who received 17 percent. Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who enjoys support from the conservative movement nationwide and is considered Romney's prime competitor for the Republican nomination, earned only 15 percent of tea party votes.

Acting Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin's final television ad features a seal of approval from West Virginia's most best-known Democrat: Sen. Joe Manchin.

"Earl Ray is the right man to keep West Virginia on the right course for a better future," Manchin says in the 30 second ad, in which he appears side by side with Tomblin.

The ad, which is currently up on the air, marks the first time in the race the popular Manchin has appeared on television on behalf of Tomblin. He's recorded robocalls for the acting governor and has vouched for him in media interviews. But the new spot represents his most direct engagement to date.

Florida House Speaker Dean Cannon said he expects Florida to hold its presidential primary on the last day of January, a move that would scramble the calendar and accelerate the nomination process earlier than party leaders had wanted.

The news of Florida's planned primary date was first reported by CNN's Peter Hamby.

Cannon confirmed to Hotline On Call that the state commission reviewing potential primary dates is meeting Friday, and expects them to choose January 31 as the primary date. States are required to submit their proposed primary and caucus dates by Saturday.

Florida's move is in violation of RNC rules that would prevent any state other than Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina from holding primaries before March 6. States that violate the rule could lose up to half of their delegates. But those rules have been flouted by other states, with Michigan and Arizona moving up their primaries to February 28.

Cannon said a suggestion from the RNC that Florida could vote on February 21 and still be the fifth state to cast ballots was disingenuous, pointing to Michigan and Arizona's accelerated calendar. Other states, like Georgia and Missouri, still could hold primaries or caucuses in that February timeframe.

"February 21st would not allow us to be fifth. They're taking liberties with the truth," Cannon said.

Last night on late-night TV, Jon Stewart revealed the identity of the heckler at President Obama's Hollywood fundraiser on Monday. And don't miss today's Must See Moment at 1:35 where a 1990s pop star joins the "Saved by the Bell" star Dustin Diamond (better known as "Screech") to get on board the Obama reelection campaign:

Take our late-night poll after the jump...

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Christie's Tuesday speech isn't going to end the presidential speculation surrounding him, Ed Koch makes nice with President Obama, Florida's making primary calendar waves once again, and Bev Perdue has an election calendar idea. Here's today's rundown:

10) "I think we ought to suspend, perhaps, elections for Congress for two years and just tell them we won't hold it against them, whatever decisions they make, to just let them help this country recover. I really hope that someone can agree with me on that." Those attention-grabbing remarks are from North Carolina Gov. Bev Perdue, during a discussion on the economy Tuesday. A spokeswoman said the remarks weren't intended to be literal, and that Perdue "was obviously using hyperbole to highlight what we can all agree is a serious problem: Washington politicians who focus on their own election instead of what's best for the people they serve."

Likely GOP opponent Pat McCrory managed to get a dig in: "Not only does this bizarre commentary suggest ignoring the Constitution, but does Governor Perdue forget her own inability to work with the Legislature, regardless if controlled by Democrats or Republicans? Governor, those in glass houses should not throw stones."

9) EMILY's List is putting Kelda Roys, a Democratic state legislator and candidate in Wisconsin's 2nd District "On The List," a designation meant to help highlight her candidacy for donors. Meanwhile, Democratic state Sen. Jon Erpenbach announced he will not run to succeed Rep. Tammy Baldwin, D-Wis., who's running for Senate.

8) Is Rep. Connie Mack, R-Fla., reconsidering a statewide run? Mack said earlier this year he would not run for the Senate, but in an interview with the Tampa Tribune editorial board, he appeared to re-open the door, even if just slightly:

"I don't have any intention to run for the Senate," he said, but added, "I'm looking at all the candidates just like everyone else and looking for one to distinguish himself ... to stand out. I would have thought by now that one would." Asked by the paper whether he'd reconsider if that doesn't change, he responded, "My intentions right now are to remain where I am." But when a questioner suggested he wasn't ruling out the idea, he responded, "I'll leave that up to your interpretation."

President Obama remains only slightly ahead of Republican candidates in Pennsylvania, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll released early Wednesday that also shows residents of that critical swing state are leaning toward opposing a move to award electoral votes by congressional district, rather than the current winner-take-all system.

Obama leads former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, 45 percent to 43 percent, statistically unchanged from a two-point Romney lead in late July. Obama's leads over Texas Gov. Rick Perry (46 percent to 40 percent) and former Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pa. (45 percent to 42 percent), are also virtually identical to the previous survey.

Obama remains deeply vulnerable in the state. A 54-percent majority disapproves of the way he is handling his job as president, unchanged from late July. A slight plurality of voters have an unfavorable opinion of Obama, with just 45 percent of voters having a favorable opinion. And only 44 percent of voters feel that Obama deserves to be reelected, with 51 percent saying they feel he does not deserve reelection.

But the poll also shows that Romney appears to be the more viable candidate in a general election. Romney's favorability rating remains positive; 32 percent of voters have a favorable opinion of him, and 28 percent have an unfavorable opinion.

Nearly half of voters haven't heard enough about Perry to form an opinion, but his personal ratings tilt negative. Just 20 percent have a favorable opinion of the Texas governor, while 33 percent hold an unfavorable opinion.

Asked about the proposal in the state legislature to divide the Keystone State's electoral votes between congressional districts, a 52-percent majority think the state should continue to award all its electoral votes to the overall winner in the state. Just 40 percent think the state should award its electoral votes by district.

President Obama holds very narrow leads over both Mitt Romney and Texas Gov. Rick Perry in Ohio, even as a majority of voters disapprove of the job the president is doing, according to a new Quinnipiac University survey released Wednesday.

Obama is in statistical dead heats with the two Republican frontrunners: He leads Perry, 44 percent to 41 percent, while he edges out Romney, 44 percent to 42 percent.

The president's approval rating, meanwhile, has reached its low point, suggesting that Obama's present leads are tenuous at best. Fully 53 percent of voters disapprove of the job the president is doing, while just 42 percent approve of his performance. Just 43 percent said Obama deserves a second term, and 51 percent said he does not.

Perry's comments comparing the Social Security system to a "Ponzi scheme" have drawn heavy criticism from Romney in recent GOP debates, and 64 percent of Buckeye State voters said the description is unfair, while just 29 percent said it is fair. Republicans were split on the question, with 45 percent saying it is unfair, and 44 percent who said it was fair.

Buried in a Dallas Morning News story about Texas Gov. Rick Perry's shaky debate performances is a shocking suggestion: That the campaign's initial fundraising swings in Texas and Oklahoma raised $20 million -- in just three days.

That's a staggering thought, equal to 4,000 donors writing the $5,000 maximum check (half of which, because of Federal Election Commission rules, wouldn't be available until the general election). It's all the more incredible given that Perry's first three weeks on the trail were all in August, the worst month of the year for fundraising.

And Perry insiders say $20 million for the quarter -- much less in three days -- is not a reasonable expectation.

But Perry's internet fundraising is going better than expected, and an aggressive fundraising events schedule is putting the campaign in good shape. A top Perry adviser suggests $10 million during the campaign's first six weeks is a more reasonable measure -- an indication that the campaign will be safely into eight figures for the quarter.

Mitt Romney outraised every one of his serious contenders last quarter. With Perry in the race, that's not going to happen this quarter.

Updated at 5:50 p.m.

After months of flirting with a run, Rep. Vern Buchanan, R-Fla., has decided not to jump into the crowded Florida Senate race, he announced Tuesday.

"Although I have been encouraged to run for U.S. Senate, I can have a greater impact serving people as Florida's only member of the influential House Ways and Means Committee, which will be deciding major issues such as tax reform, health care, and international trade," said Buchanan in a statement.

After state Senate President Mike Haridopolos (R) dropped out of the race in July, speculation intensified that Buchanan might mount a bid. But Buchanan also has had to deal with allegations of ethics violations, which could have become an issue in a Senate campaign.

Four Republicans are already vying for the GOP nomination, including former Sen. George LeMieux and former state House Majority Leader Adam Hasner. Polling suggests Sunshine State Republicans haven't yet coalesced around a challenger to Sen. Bill Nelson and there is room for another candidate to enter the race.

Hasner narrowly won the Conservative Political Action Conference straw poll on Friday, edging out Ret. Army Col. Mike McCalister.

Former Sen. Russ Feingold's, D-Wis., political action committee is making its first Senate endorsement of the cycle, throwing its weight behind Elizabeth Warren in Massachusetts.

"In 2005, she stood up against the Wall Street wish list of a bankruptcy bill -- a huge corporate giveaway I opposed in the Senate," Feingold writes in an email to supporters. "And after the big banks drove us into a recession, Elizabeth proposed a new Bureau of Consumer Financial Protection, and then fought tirelessly to make sure the Obama administration created it."

The endorsement was first reported by Huffington Post.

With the backing of Feingold comes the support of Progressives United, the PAC the liberal favorite started earlier this year that is dedicated to overturning the Supreme Court's "Citizen's United" decision.

The endorsement is a way to continue to stir enthusiasm on the left, Warren's natural base, and build her campaign coffers as she navigates a primary and eyes a matchup with Republican Sen. Scott Brown and his nearly $10 million war chest.

Updated at 3:30 p.m.

Texas Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst is beginning to sound a lot like Mitt Romney.

"If we're not going to give fellow Americans who live in Louisiana or Oklahoma or New Mexico the ability to come into Texas and have in-state tuition and save, then is it fair to give that break to people who are not citizens here?" he told Dallas/Ft. Worth's WFAA. "So, I would not have signed that law."

Dewhurst is breaking with Gov. Rick Perry over a law that makes some illegal immigrants eligible for in-state college tuition, an issue that has emerged as a point of contention in the Republican presidential debates, with Romney, Perry's chief rival, blasting him for supporting the measure.

Dewhurst's statement says two things. One, he recognizes the importance of being strong on immigration in a GOP Senate primary in which he is not perceived as the most conservative candidate. Two, he will likely have to face questions from his opponents about why he did not act when given the opportunity to alter the law. Austin American-Statesman's Jason Embry:

It's worth noting that Sen. Brian Birdwell filed a bill to repeal that in-state tuition law just this year in the Senate, where Dewhurst is the presiding office. The bill, Senate Bill 1631, was referred to the Higher Education Committee, chaired by Democratic Sen. Judith Zaffirini. It was heard but never emerged from that committee.

...

Also, in 2005, with Dewhurst as the presiding officer of the Senate for the session, the Legislature passed Senate Bill 1528, which clarified a number of issues related to who should be considered a state resident for the purposes of in-state tuition. Among the provisions clarified by the bill was the one allowing in-state tuition for the children of illegal immigrants -- provided that the student had been in Texas for three years and declared an intent to apply for permanent residency in the United States. The Senate passed that bill 29-0. In other words, the Senate had a clear opportunity to change the law while Dewhurst was lieutenant governor and it chose not to.

As influential members of the Republican donor class make a renewed push to convince New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie to run for president, a new Fairleigh Dickinson University PublicMind survey out early Tuesday shows Christie's poll numbers are improving among voters in his home state.

Christie's approval rating stands at 54 percent, while 36 percent of voters disapprove of the job he is doing. His approval rating is up ten points from May, when it stood at 44 percent, with the same percentage disapproving.

His personal favorability is also up: 49 percent have a favorable opinion of the governor, while 41 percent have an unfavorable view of him. That's almost a ten-point jump from May, when 40 percent held a favorable opinion of Christie and 45 percent held an unfavorable opinion of him.

Despite his national prominence, Christie hasn't been a political slam dunk in the Garden State. A budget standoff earlier this year was largely responsible for lowering his numbers.

"The spring budget battles at every level -- municipal, county, and state -- hurt the governor," said Peter Woolley, director of the poll. "But he got a big win on pension and benefits reform in June, and weathered Hurricane Irene in August."

The new poll, ironically, counters one of the main arguments for Christie to enter the White House race: If he's not going to win reelection in 2013, why not take a shot nationally in 2012, the argument goes. But if the boost in his numbers is a lasting one, and Christie is seriously interested in reelection, there is less incentive to opt for higher office this early in his tenure.

West Virginia and Kentucky border one another and are both holding gubernatorial elections this year in which Democratic governors are trying to turn back Republican challengers. But that's where the similarities end.

The two Appalachian neighbors each appeared primed for competitive contests earlier this year. But Democrats are having a considerably easier time in Kentucky than in West Virginia. In the Mountain State, acting Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin is trying to hold off a late push from Republican businessman Bill Maloney while in Kentucky, incumbent Steve Beshear is running away against state Senate President David Williams.

Republican voters nominated Williams, a quintessential political insider in Kentucky, while in West Virginia, Maloney, a political newcomer, upset former Secretary of State Betty Ireland in a primary.

As state Senate president, Williams is the leader of the state's GOP establishment and it's not difficult for opponents to cast him as an insider. He's served in the state legislature since the 1980s and opponents have portrayed him as self-serving.

"Big spending David Williams likes to spend our tax dollars on himself, but not on our schools," says an ad that ran against him over the summer. "Williams spent $17,000 on a sixty-inch TV and entertainment system for his office, billing it to taxpayers."

His running mate Richie Farmer is the agriculture commissioner. A former college basketball star, he was added to the ticket to boost popularity, and was believed to be a politically safe choice. He's proven to be anything but, as stories about how he billed the state for stays in in a hotel suite during a high school basketball tournament less than 25 miles from his home and spent six figures in 2010 on new vehicle for his department trickled out.

Beshear was not exactly a political newcomer, even before he became governor. He served as lieutenant governor and attorney general before assuming the state's top job. But he's largely steered clear of the controversy and cronyism charges that are sometimes lobbed at pols who have served in government for so long.

Jonah Kaauwai, the embattled head of Hawaii's Republican Party resigned Monday, bringing to end what was a rocky tenure for the state party under the watch of a man whose brand of conservatism and fundraising problems caused headaches for many Republicans. His decision removes an obstacle for the party's current and prospective federal candidates in 2012 -- particularly former Gov. Linda Lingle. The Honolulu Star Advertiser:

The factionalism that led to Kaauwai's departure is another blot on a party that has fought to stay relevant in a traditionally Democratic state. But if Kaauwai's ouster does end the infighting and Republicans are able to unite, the party has the potential to be competitive next year with Lingle and Djou, which could also help Republicans in state House and Senate races.

Lingle is still weighing a Senate bid and Djou is running in HI-01.

Rumors are again swirling that New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie could join the Republican presidential race. This was not music to Jon Stewart's ears.

"You want to add another candidate? It's like the Republican primary is a season of 'American Idol' in reverse where every week, you just add some other idiot," Stewart joked on Monday. He said, "All that's missing is the humiliating audition where the contestant mangles one of your favorite songs" -- at which point he cuts to Christie singing ... one of Stewart's favorite songs. Watch to see which Garden State favorite the governor tries to cover.

And don't miss today's Must See Moment at 2:12 where Stewart suggests a couple of new looks for Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul:

Take our late-night poll after the jump...

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Christie is setting off presidential buzz, Huntsman has some work to do if he wants to debate, Facebook forms a PAC, and President Obama makes his return to Colorado. Here's today's rundown:

9) Here's the situation: New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie on Monday blocked a $420,000 tax credit "Jersey Shore" had applied for to expand film and television shooting in the state.

Amid renewed push by influential donors for a Christie presidential bid, the governor continues a three-state tour today. He'll deliver an address at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library and appear at a fundraiser in Missouri for Congressional candidate Ann Wagner.

8) Facebook has formed a PAC and will use it to distribute cash to candidates in upcoming elections.

7) In the cable news ratings war, the September numbers showed third place CNN is edging its way back up, while MSNBC is moving in the opposite direction.

Updated at 10:51 a.m.

Tea partiers are nothing if not counter-conventional. And this week, the movement is set to make clear it's not content to go along with the Republican establishment's top choices. Major tea party champions are making their way into two Senate primaries this week, in both cases setting themselves against candidates the National Republican Senatorial Committee prefers.

In Nebraska, state Treasurer Don Stenberg landed a two-fer. We confirmed reports from CNN and Politico that FreedomWorks and Sen. Mike Lee, R-Utah, are getting behind the underdog candidate.

A nod from Lee and FreedomWorks comes at a crucial point -- the closing days of the third quarter fundraising period. GOP frontrunner Jon Bruning, who has been hamstrung by negative headlines and poor fundraising this year, will be under a microscope when the third quarter figures are in. As bad as Bruning's money woes have been, Stenberg's figures have been much worse: he ended the second quarter with just $21,000 in the bank and over $121,000 in debt.

Bruning remains the favorite, but Stenberg's high profile endorsements signal major players are willing to back a Bruning alternative in the Cornhusker State. And no one seems to mind that Stenberg is one of the many Republicans Sen. Ben Nelson has beaten in the past.

Throughout 2011, House Budget Chairman Paul Ryan's budget proposal that revamps Medicare has been a central point of contention in several federal races. If former Arizona Democratic Party Chairman Don Bivens has his way, the issue will also emerge in the Arizona Senate race that already includes Republican Rep. Jeff Flake as a candidate.

"Points of difference: Jeff Flake supports the Ryan budget, which the Wall Street Journal has described as ending Medicare as we know it. I am in favor of preserving Medicare and Social Security benefits for seniors," Bivens said in an interview with Hotline On Call Monday, after officially announcing his candidacy.

"If the Democrats indeed put forth a liberal lawyer and former Party Chairman, the voters will have a clear choice come November," responded Flake in a statement.

In his announcement video and the interview, Bivens decried the fighting in Washington. He said he is running to provide a voice for the middle class.

"The middle class is getting pinched and we have too many of our politicians back in Washington that are more concerned about bickering than about getting stuff done," he said.

Bivens is the first Democrat to declare. But he may not be the only. Aides to Democratic Rep. Gabrielle Giffords have been wooing former Surgeon General Richard Carmona to enter the race. For his own part, Bivens steered clear of commenting on Carmona.

The early read on the absentee/early voting totals out of West Virginia (where turnout is higher than expected) is that acting Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin should be encouraged due to the Democratic ballots being cast at a pace ahead of the party's registration advantage in the state. But that's only part of the story. As of Monday, the results are as follows:

Democratic ballots: 10,582 (58 percent)
Republican ballots: 6,166 (34 percent)
No affiliation/other ballots (excluding Mtn. Party): 1,521 (8.3 percent)

According to the latest figures from the state, here's how voter registration breaks down by party:

Democrats: 52.98 percent
Republicans: 28.83 percent
No Affiliation: 16.48 percent
Other: 1.6 percent
Mountain: 0.1 percent

The rest of the story: Republican ballots are also being cast at a clip that outpaces the GOP voter registration share. We don't know how many Democrats are crossing over (and vice versa), but what we do know is that independents look like they are waiting until the very end to vote, as the unaffiliated share of the early vote is smaller than the share of overall registered voters represented by unaffiliated voters.

Republicans say they expect stronger turnout on election day, and it's clear the battle for independents will still be raging during this final week. Expect to see from Republicans a ramped up effort to try to tie Tomblin to President Obama in an effort to woo voters in the middle unhappy with the president, who overall is very unpopular in the state.

Texas Gov. Rick Perry remains the tenuous frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination, despite enduring the toughest stretch of his seven-week-old campaign, according to a new CNN/ORC International poll released Monday.

Perry leads former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, 28 percent to 21 percent, according to the CNN poll. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is third at 10 percent, with all other candidates in single digits.

The poll represents a slight tightening of the race. Perry's seven-point advantage is down from a 12-point lead two weeks ago.

There are other red flags for the Texas governor in the poll data: The poll shows a striking, 20-point gender gap is developing in the GOP race. Perry holds a 17-point lead among men, while Romney leads by four points among women. Two weeks ago, Perry led Romney by double-digits among both men and women.

Perry's numbers are also dropping among those Republicans who attended college -- from a 13-point lead over Romney earlier this month to a scant, one-point edge now.

Another troubling sign for Perry: His numbers in the general election haven't moved, and Romney remains the stronger GOP candidate against President Obama, according to the poll. Perry trails Obama among all registered voters, 51 percent to 46 percent, exactly where he was the weekend he launched his campaign, the last time CNN tested the two head-to-head.

The Obama-Romney matchups numbers are also identical to the previous poll, conducted in early August. But Romney runs neck-and-neck with the president, trailing by just a point.

Obama's approval rating ticked up two points in the last two weeks, to 45 percent, a change that is within the margin of error. A majority continues to disapprove of his job performance.

"Saturday Night Live" returned for its 37th season this weekend, spoofing the Republican field in its cold open as it presented "either the 7th or 8th presidential debate."

"Tonight's debate is between former Gov. Mitt Romney and Gov. Rick Perry," Fox's "Shepard Smith" said as he introduced the candidates. "There are also six other people who will never be president but showed up anyway."

Don't miss today's Must See Moment at 1:43 where one candidate walks off the stage:

Take our late-night poll after the jump...

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Perry has a rough weekend, early voting is looking encouraging for Tomblin in West Virginia, Democrats get a Senate candidate in Arizona and the debate over barbecue edges its way into the 2012 conversation. And Obama's catering to his base. Here's today's rundown:

9) Texas Gov. Rick Perry: Please clarify your position ... on barbecue. A North Carolina barbecue restaurant is looking to convert him into a fan of eastern-style barbecue after he once said it tasted worse than "road kill." "I strongly encourage you to revisit your experience with Eastern North Carolina Bar-B-Q and give you the opportunity to rectify your statement," a letter from the restaurant (accompanied by a two pound sample) asks.

8) Former Arizona Democratic Party Chairman Don Bivens will announce later today that he is making a Senate run for the seat of retiring Sen. Jon Kyl, R-Ariz. But many Democrats in Arizona still have their eyes on former Surgeon General Richard Carmona, who is mulling a run.

Rep. Jeff Flake, R-Ariz., is the GOP's leading candidate for the open seat.

7) Gallup begins a week-long series of poll releases on American's views on the role of government with this jarring number: A record-high 81 percent of Americans "are dissatisfied with the way the country is being governed," the pollster reports. In a previous release from the same poll, Gallup found that just 15 percent of Americans approved of the way Congress is handling its job.

MACKINAC ISLAND, Mich. -- A significant proportion of conservative Republican activists say they would be willing to compromise and vote for a candidate who does not follow party orthodoxy on social issues in order to get the economy back on track, according to a straw poll conducted at the biennial Mackinac Republican Leadership Conference.

The National Journal Hotline/National Association of Home Builders Straw Poll showed conference attendees were evenly divided on whether they could support a presidential candidate who would improve the county's economic woes, but was also in favor of same-sex marriage and abortion rights.

The results were an indication that while the group overwhelmingly identified themselves as conservative, many were guided by practicality in their decision-making.

The group of 681 voting-age conference attendees surveyed here on Friday and Saturday, was split nearly down the middle over whether they would vote for a Republican presidential candidate who could solve the country's economic outlook, but who disagreed with them on key social issues.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney won the straw poll by a wide margin, taking 51 percent of the vote. Romney took 47 percent among voters who identified themselves as conservative, and a whopping 73 percent among voters who identified themselves as moderate Republicans.

Texas Gov. Rick Perry was the only other candidate who scored in double digits among either group. Perry won 18 percent of conservative voters and 10 percent of self-described moderates.

Updated 10:00 a.m.

MACKINAC ISLAND, Mich. -- Tea party support helped fuel Mitt Romney's resounding victory at a Republican straw poll in Michigan this weekend, countering conventional wisdom that his moderate reputation and establishment support don't mesh with the grassroots conservative movement.

Romney won 34 percent of ballots cast by self-described tea party members in the National Journal Hotline/National Association of Home Builders Straw Poll, an unscientific survey that he won with 51 percent of the total vote. Romney's closest rival for tea party votes was Herman Cain, who received just 17 percent of their votes.

Romney chief rival for the GOP nomination, Texas Gov. Rick Perry, received 15 percent of the tea party vote despite enjoying support from the conservative movement nationwide.

Romney's strong showing among tea party activists here can be largely attributed to his "favorite son" status in Michigan. National polling shows Romney struggling to compete for conservative votes against Perry. A recent USA Today/Gallup poll showed Perry leading Romney in a head-to-head matchup, 64 percent to 28 percent, among Republicans who consider themselves tea party supporters. Among non-tea party supporters, Romney led 47 percent to 39 percent.

The National Journal Hotline/National Association of Home Builders Straw Poll was conducted Sept. 23-24 at the Mackinac Republican Leadership Conference. Of the 681 total ballots cast, 278 were cast by attendees who identified themselves as "a member of the tea party."

MACKINAC ISLAND, Mich. -- It has taken Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., just nine months to transform from a freshman member of the World's Most Deliberative Body to the Republican many party activists want to become their vice presidential nominee.

According to the National Journal Hotline/National Association of Home Builders Straw Poll, a survey conducted this weekend here at the Mackinac Republican Leadership Conference, Rubio is the top choice to appear on the 2012 GOP ticket as the vice presidential nominee.

The straw poll featured a unique, entirely open-ended question about vice presidential preference. Twenty-three percent of participants in the straw poll who answered the question wrote in Rubio's name, more than any other individual.

Former Oakland County Republican Party Chairman Paul Welday, a Rubio supporter, said the Florida senator is "very articulate" and offers "geographic balance" to the ticket, but that he would also consider Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis., the chairman of the House Budget Committee. Just one percent chose Ryan as their favored nominee.

"I think Paul Ryan would be a strong second choice," said Welday.

Rubio is the only politician among the top seven Republican contenders who is not an active presidential contender. Fourteen percent of participants chose businessman Herman Cain, 13 percent chose former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and 12 percent want Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn.

MACKINAC ISLAND, Mich. - In a rout, Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney trounced Rick Perry and the rest of the GOP field to win the National Journal Hotline/National Association of Home Builders Straw Poll of GOP activists attending a weekend conference in Michigan.

Romney received 51 percent of the 681 votes cast, a whopping 34-percentage point victory over second-place Perry, who garnered 17 percent. It was the second straight defeat for Perry in a straw poll, after he finished second in another contest Saturday in Florida. The twin disappointments, along with weak debate performances, have raised questions about whether the Texas governor will remain the perceived front-runner in the GOP nomination fight.

Romney grew up in suburban Detroit and in the Michigan governor's mansion; his father, George Romney, served as the state's chief executive from 1963 to 1969. Michigan is likely to hold its presidential nomination contest on Feb. 28, a week before Super Tuesday. It is also an important state in the general election contest.

Both Romney and Perry addressed the conference Saturday, and while Perry took subtle digs at his GOP rival, Romney denounced President Obama's economic leadership. "I just don't think he's equipped for what's happening," the former Massachusetts governor said.

Third place in the Hotline straw poll went to former Godfather's Pizza CEO Herman Cain, who won the Florida poll Saturday. He received 9 percent of the votes among Michigan Republican activists.

Michigan Republicans are taking note of a major contrast between Mitt Romney and Rick Perry: Attention.

Perry arrived to the conference's luncheon on Saturday during the official program, grabbing a few quick handshakes as he swept into the room. The Texas governor left the island shortly after his speech.

By stark contrast, Romney entered the dining room well before the official program and mingled with the crowd of GOP faithful. He called several crowd members by name and joked to one about his tan. "Don't you work for a living?" he quipped.

What we at The Hotline learned this week:

-- Recent public polling has given President Obama's reelection team new cause for concern. Throughout much of his presidency, even as his job approval numbers declined, the president's personal favorability has held up. But new CBS/New York Times and ABC News/Washington Post polls show a drop even in his personal popularity -- yet another troubling sign for Obama's reelection prospects.

-- Texas Gov. Rick Perry 's poor debate outings won't help him convince donors he is the best candidate to take on Obama. Meanwhile, with an eye toward the importance of the tally at the end of the current period, Perry has tried to subdue his fiery rhetoric when soliciting donations from wealthy donors. The next debate is set for Oct. 11 -- four days before financial disclosure reports are due. A one-two punch of less-than-expected contributions and another weak debate performance would spell some real trouble for Perry.

-- Former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman doesn't look like he's going to win anything anytime soon, but that doesn't mean he can't be a factor in the early states. In New Hampshire, he reached double digits in a poll this week -- easily his best showing in any state-level or national poll outside of Utah. Even if he can't beat Mitt Romney in the Granite State, the former Massachusetts governor will at least have to keep an eye on the rear-view mirror in his strongest state and Perry's momentum heading into South Carolina could be slowed a bit if he finishes behind the former ambassador to China.

-- If there's any order to be found among the disorder in the Senate, it came from Sen. Lamar Alexander's, R-Tenn., decision to give up his conference chair position. In resigning from the post and not declaring a run for GOP whip, Sen. John Thune, R-S.D., may find himself on a trajectory into the upper echelon of the Republican leadership while Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, can land the No. 2 spot without major competition. Now the question will be whether "majority" or "minority" will be tagged next to their prospective new titles in the next Congress.

-- Despite praise form the party's base and polling showing elements of Obama's jobs plan are popular, the package is proving to be a much tougher sell in battleground states where control of the Senate will be won or lost next year. A review of public reactions from key Democratic Senate contenders to both Obama's jobs plan and his deficit reduction proposal reveals caution: Praise is general, and when specific, limited to noncontroversial elements. Some Democrats have even expressed outright skepticism.

ORLANDO - Herman Cain was the clear winner Saturday of a straw poll of Republican activists in this battleground state, amassing more votes that the frontrunners for the presidential nomination, Texas Gov. Rick Perry and Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, combined.

Cain, a Georgia businessman whose compelling personal story - he grew up poor and black and beat cancer - and fiery rhetoric about the need to simplify the tax code and jump-start the economy struck a chord with Republican activists here, won 37 percent of the 2,657 votes cast. Perry, who made a late but spirited effort in the state, got 15 percent. Romney, who had announced earlier he is not competing in straw polls, came in third with 14 percent of the vote.

Trailing the top three: Sen. Rick Santorum, 11 percent; Rep. Ron Paul, 10 percent; Newt Gingrich, 8 percent; former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, 2 percent and Michele Bachmann, 1 percent.

Mitt Romney and Rick Perry will get the headlines, but behind the scenes and in the hallways of the Grand Hotel here on Mackinac Island, Michigan Republicans are getting a harder sell from candidates who want the opportunity to take on Sen. Debbie Stabenow.

Former Rep. Pete Hoekstra may be the front-runner at the moment; the Holland Republican lost his bid for the gubernatorial nomination in 2010, but his time in office has given him a solid fundraising and political base.

Before he gets a clean shot at Stabenow, Hoekstra must get through a host of other Republicans. The one who will give Hoekstra the most trouble: Former state Board of Education president Clark Durant.

Durant backers spin the race as a battle between the establishment, which backs Hoekstra, and outsider conservatives who like their guy. But a lot of those supporters are establishment types themselves, like former Sen. Spence Abraham, former state party chairman Saul Anuzis and his brother, Republican activist Andy Anuzis.

Lest anyone not take Durant seriously, Saul Anuzis has helped him bring in a big-time campaign manager: Dick Wadhams. Wadhams ran Sen. John Thune's, R-S.D., 2004 contest against then-Sen. Tom Daschle, then helmed George Allen's unsuccessful 2006 re-election race in Virginia. After that race, he headed back to his home state of Colorado to head the state Republican Party (Where he backed Anuzis in his bid for Republican National Committee chairman).

Keep an eye on this primary. It's going to be a good race.

MACKINAC ISLAND, Mich. -- Having dispensed with his presidential campaign - "the worst 15 minutes of my life" - Rep. Thad McCotter, R-Mich., was welcomed home by Michigan Republicans at the a party conference on Saturday morning.

And though he did not mention his reelection campaign, it was clear that Michigan state Sen. Mike Kowall, also a Republican, was on his mind.

Kowall was also just a few feet away, standing on the porch of the Grand Hotel officially announcing his candidacy for McCotter's seat, while the congressman spoke inside.

MACKINAC ISLAND, Mich. -- Stopping short of an endorsement, Michigan Republican Party Chairman Bobby Schostak said Saturday that former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney stands a better chance than Texas Gov. Rick Perry of defeating President Obama in this battleground state.

"I think Romney has the edge here," Schostak told reporters. "He's the one to beat."

Both Romney and Perry were scheduled to address the Mackinac Republican Leadership Conference at this island resort later Saturday. They are early front-runners in the GOP nomination race.

Romney's father, George Romney, served as Michigan's governor from 1963 to 1969. Schostak said Romney's family name and Michigan roots would give him an upper hand in Michigan should he win the nomination and face Obama.

"There's a strong connection there," he said of Mitt Romney, who was raised in Bloomfield Hills, Mich.

Obama won Michigan in 2008 by 16 percentage points over Republican John McCain. It had been considered a state that could tilt to the GOP until the economy collapsed late in the campaign. It is hard to imagine Obama winning re-election without carrying Michigan.

Schostak did throw Perry a bone, saying that Michigan voters are likely to sympathize with his immigration policies. Perry rivals, including Romney, have accused the Texan of being soft on immigration.

Rep. Steve Lynch, D-Mass., has confirmed that he will not seek to challenge Sen. Scott Brown, R-Mass., in 2012 - not a surprise, since many Massachusetts political observers have long believed the field is set.

Lynch appeared to come far closer to a run the last time the seat opened, in the fall of 2009, until run-ins with labor largely over his opposition to a public option in the health care expansion bill forced him to drop out of the race before ever really getting in. Since, Lynch has mended fences with the unions and was viewed by some in Massachusetts as the type of hard-nosed moderate who could stack up favorably against Brown, as long as he could get out of the primary.

"Congressman Lynch thinks we have a solid group of Democratic candidates, and he will not be a candidate," a Lynch spokesman told National Journal.

That eliminates another Bay State congressman from the roster of prospective candidates, as Elizabeth Warren has begun to soak up much of the excitement in the progressive wing of the party. Rep. Michael Capuano, D-Mass., said earlier this month he would not enter the race.

White House adviser David Plouffe takes center stage for the weekend shows, appearing on This Week, Fox News Sunday, and State of the Union. He'll talk about the President's plan to reduce the deficit and whether a deal can be reached in Congress. State of the Union will have Sen. Lamar Alexander, R-Tenn., and Sen. Mark Warner, D-Va., discuss the prospect of a deal to keep the government running

On Face the Nation, DNC chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz and RNC chair Reince Priebus square off in the aftermath of the latest Republican debate.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will sit down with Meet the Press host David Gregory to discuss the prospects for peace. On Fox News Sunday, Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., will be there to analyze the Palestinian situation as well as other foreign policy hotspots.

NBC's Education Nation kicks off this weekend with New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg joining Meet the Press and reflecting on the state of American education.

Get the full listings after the jump.

MACKINAC ISLAND, Mich. -- South Carolina Republican Gov. Nikki Haley says she isn't any closer to endorsing a candidate in the GOP presidential primary contest, but indicated on Friday that she's looking for a "true executive" who can revive the nation's struggling economy.

Addressing hundreds of GOP activists and officials here at the Mackinac Republican Leadership Conference, Haley called next year's contest "the most important presidential election we've had in a long time," and urged attendees to support a candidate who puts substance ahead of style.

"We're not going to vote for personality -- we saw where that got us last time," Haley said. "We need a true executive to get us back on track."

Haley elaborated on that theme after her speech, telling Hotline On Call that she's looking for a candidate with proven business background. "An executive -- that means business people," Haley said.

"What I'm looking for is someone who understands the debt, someone who understands that we need to be energy independent, someone who will... get people back to work."

Haley, a rising star in the Republican Party who governs a key primary state, has emerged as one of the most highly sought-after endorsements in the GOP primary contest. But despite the whirling speculation regarding who she'll throw her support behind, Haley insisted that for now she's just an interested observer.

"I'll weigh in when i need to," Haley said, dismissing the significance of her endorsement. "I'm having fun, I'm watching the debates, I'm having a great time -- there's no pressure right now. I just think it's too early."

Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis., will head the Republican National Committee's presidential trust, the party announced Friday morning, a position from which he could launch a national campaign of his own -- eventually.

The trust is the fund from which the RNC will be able to make expenditures in coordination with its eventual presidential nominee. The fund can raise tens of millions of dollars, which could prove crucial after a nominee emerges from what could be a bloody, contentious and drawn out process. A broke nominee will be able to draw on RNC resources to fend off Democratic attacks while he or she restocks depleted campaign coffers.

In the long run, the post is a big deal for Ryan. The chairman of the House Budget Committee is a heroic figure to many in the conservative media elite, many of whom urged him to run for president. That was never a serious prospect, according to those close to Ryan, but he has realized that if he ever wants to run nationally, he'll need a donor base.

Running the trust will put Ryan's name in front of big donors who could eventually provide that base. A single donor can give up to $30,800 to the trust. And Ryan has promised Republicans he will be more than an honorary chairman; sources say he will dedicate both travel and call time to raising money for the trust.

His appointment is another sign that Ryan will disappoint fans in the conservative literati by forgoing a presidential bid this year. But it's a sign that he recognizes his potential as a future candidate, and he's laying a foundation in case the timing ever works out.

Late-night TV on Thursday was buzzing over where "space junk" from the NASA satellite headed for Earth will touch down.

"As we speak, a defunct satellite is hurdling toward the Earth," Stephen Colbert said on "The Colbert Report." "Let's just pray it lands somewhere it can't do any damage -- like Detroit."

Don't miss today's Must See Moment at 1:24 where Rick Perry is the guest judge on the talent-competition show, "The X Factor":

Take our late-night poll after the jump...

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Romney held his own during Thursday's presidential debate, while Perry stumbled in the second half. Meanwhile, Hoekstra is getting a boost from Bachmann while Sharron Angle lends Richard Mourdock a hand. And will Bill Maloney appear with Perry in the Mountain State next week? Here's today's rundown:

9) Former President Clinton offers his plan to fix the economy in a new book due out in November. As the New York Times notes, the book's timing will create an unusual tableau: Clinton on a national book tour talking about the economy at the same time that President Obama will be presenting his plans.

8) "If they keep you out of the debates, you are out of the conversation, and you can't run. It was sort of death by media" -- That's the diagnosis from Rep. Thad McCotter, R-Mich., who ended his presidential bid Thursday and lined up behind Mitt Romney. McCotter said he's "likely" to run again for his congressional seat - which was the most improved GOP district in the state - but he will have company in the GOP primary. State Sen. Mike Kowall is expected to announce his candidacy at this weekend's Mackinac Conference.

7) Former DCCC Chairman Martin Frost writes in a Politico op-ed that "Conventional wisdom is politics is often wrong. A case in point may be the Senate candidacy of Elizabeth Warren in Massachusetts. The conventional wisdom is that Warren, a Harvard professor, is the ideal candidate for the liberal bastion of Massachusetts. The problem with this particular piece of conventional wisdom is that even though Massachusetts has sent some outstanding liberal Democrats to the U.S. Senate, it is one of the last bastions of male chauvinism in American politics."

Frost isn't saying anything new; when women run in Massachusetts, the Bay State's record on electing women to statewide positions is often discussed. But his op-ed comes as when Warren's candidacy is taking off, with some early momentum.

Nine Republican presidential candidates are gathered in Orlando, Florida, for a debate co-sponsored by Fox News and Google. National Journal's editors will use this space to offer real-time analysis of the debate throughout the evening.

11:04 Sean Sullivan: Romney turned in another steady performance, leveling criticism at Perry on immigration and playing quick defense against Perry's barbs. Perry didn't have to contend with secondary candidates going after him as much as he did last time, but he did have to contend with himself, as he fumbled his flip-flop charge against Perry and once again did not appear at ease when discussing foreign policy/national security. Finally, Gary Johnson will probably fade into the background again, but his shovel-ready comment won't. Count on seeing his zinger in just about every story tomorrow morning.

10:53 Kathy Kiely: There's a lot that could be said about Rick Perry's suggestion that you could "mate up" Newt Gingrich and Herman Cain to come up with a dream running mate, but maybe it would be safest to just leave it at this: We now understand why the governor got a C in Animal Breeding at Texas A&M

10:45 Josh Kraushaar: Line of the night from Gary Johnson: My next-door neighbors' dogs have created more shovel-ready projects than this president.

10:39 Sean Sullivan: The broader flip-flopping charge against Romney was offered (ineffectively) by Perry at a point when he could have gone after Romney specifically over the health care plan he signed in Massachusetts. Perry tried to go bigger but missed an opportunity to hit Romney where it hurts.

10:34 Josh Kraushaar: As he's done in the past debates, Perry's fading towards the final stretch. He flubbed his prepared attack line against Romney on his flip-flopping.

10:20 Sean Sullivan: One of the defining characteristics of the last debate: the extent to which candidates not named Romney went after Perry. We're seeing less of that this time and instead, more JV side scrimmages between Johnson/Bachmann and Santorum/Huntsman.

10:18 Julie Sobel: When Huntsman, who's been a non-factor so far in this debate, finally goes on the attack, his target is Santorum. Santorum is still the only second tier candidate who's mixed it up with the frontrunners in this debate.

10:13 Kathy Kiely: Bachmann seizing a moment to blast Cuba, a sure applause line in a state that is home to many Cuban exiles and their children. But she's having to pick a fight with Gary Johnson. Romney and Perry are still focused on each other.

10:10 Kathy Kiely: Parsing words? Perry's press shop just sent out a releasing saying that Perry "never said Social Security was unconstitutional" and offering this quote as evidence: "And there stands a crumbling monument to the failure of the New Deal, in stark contrast to the mythical notion of salvation to which it has wrongly been attached for too long, all at the expense of respect for the Constitution and limited government."

No, he didn't us the "u-word." He said Social Security came at "the expense of respect for the Constitution."

A new Democratic poll indicates Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin is leading businessman Bill Maloney by double digits, but shows the Democrat's lead shrinking as the election approaches.

Tomblin leads Maloney 46 percent to 36 percent in a survey released Thursday that was conducted by The Mellman Group for the Democratic Governors Association. The previous poll, conducted August 20-22 showed Tomblin leading Maloney 47 percent to 33 percent.

The closing gap comes as Republicans have been waging an expensive television ad war against Tomblin. The Charleston Gazette reported Thursday that a group funded primarily by the Republican Governors Association spent $1.08 million on an ad buy this week. An arm of the DGA also reported an additional expenditure of $430,000.

The poll shows that Maloney's name ID has increased: 38 percent view him favorably, up eight points from the last poll. 27 percent view him unfavorably, which is a 14 point increase. Tomblin's viewed favorably by 51 percent of voters. His unfavorable rating was notably not released.

The survey of 500 likely voters was conducted from Sept. 16-19 and carries a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percent.

Updated, 6:00 p.m.

One of the Democratic party's leading pollsters released a survey of 60 Republican-held battleground districts today painting an ominous picture for Congressional Democrats in 2012. The poll shows Democratic House candidates faring worse than they did in the 2010 midterms, being dragged down by an unpopular president who would lose to both Texas Gov. Rick Perry and Mitt Romney.

Pollster Stan Greenberg released the poll with some sugary spin for Democrats, downplaying the results by arguing that the president's jobs plan will improve the party's fortunes.

From National Journal:

PICTURES: Women of the White House

With "Operation Twist" The Fed Rediscovers Half Its Job

Actress Says Bachmann Reminds Her of Intolerant Character on Glee

Romney Slams Perry on Social Security

"This is obviously not the best moment to judge the Democrats' eventual fortunes--with fewer voters identifying as Democrats, with Democrats themselves less enthusiastic about the president, and with his overall approval rating down 7 points and losing independents in these districts," Greenberg wrote in his memo. "We do not yet know the public's reaction to the president's latest initiatives, but there is reason to believe they can help him and the Democrats here."

But the numbers - at least right now -- are troubling for Democrats, and echoed some of the takeaways from the GOP special election upset in New York City last week. Instead of an overall anti-incumbent sentiment impacting members of both parties, voters are taking more of their anger out on Democrats. When voters were asked whether they're supporting the Republican incumbent or a Democratic candidate, 50 percent preferred the Republican and just 41 percent backed the Democrat.

Voters in these districts said they were more supportive of Republicans than they were during the 2010 midterms, when 48 percent said they backed the Republican candidate and 42 percent said they backed the Democrat. (Republicans won 55 percent of the overall vote in these 60 battleground districts, while Democrats took 43 percent.) In 2010, Republicans netted 63 House seats - their best showing since 1948.

Respondents were lukewarm about their current Republican representatives - 39 percent approved, while 33 percent disapproved, and 28 percent were undecided. And a near-majority of 49 percent said they "can't vote to re-elect" the GOP incumbent because "we need new people that will fix Washington" -- a jump of four points since March.

Insiders in both parties are increasingly predicting that Republicans will control all of Congress after the 2012 elections, according to the results of the latest National Journal Political Insiders poll. Democratic Insiders' already modest hopes for holding the Senate and retaking the House have waned since May, when the Insiders were last asked about congressional prospects. Meanwhile, Republicans see the electoral map, the economy and presidential unpopularity as factors moving ever more in their favor.

When Republicans look at the 2012 map, Missouri presents them with a wealth of opportunities: Despite Obama's historic win, the traditional bellwether backed John McCain, and the environment has gotten much tougher for Democrats since. Sen. Claire McCaskill appears very vulnerable, and Republicans have an opportunity to pick off the governorship in what's shaping up to be a promising year.

But that's only one half of the story.

The other half is a lackluster field of Republican Senate challengers, who have either struggled to raise money or attract attention early on. And a salacious string of scandals plaguing Lieutenant Governor Peter Kinder is making Democratic Gov. Jay Nixon looking in surprisingly good shape for a second term.

In the Senate race, there is little doubt that Sen. Claire McCaskill is susceptible to a formidable GOP challenger. President Obama, who narrowly lost the state in 2008, is unpopular, and Republicans have been tying McCaskill to his record. Damaging revelations about her use of a private plane for political purposes billed to taxpayers further worsened McCaskill's already-tenuous standing.

Despite McCaskill's plight, daunting Republican challengers haven't yet swooped in. Former Sen. Jim Talent passed on running, and the field is currently comprised of Rep. Todd Akin and former Treasurer Sarah Steelman. Steelman's fundraising has been abysmal, and Akin's had to fight charges that he's too conservative and a creature of Washington.

Americans are more critical of the press than they've ever been, according to a new Pew Research Center poll.

Pew has been running a "Views of the Media" poll every other year since in 1985. In this year's survey, 66 percent of Americans said the stories they come across are "often inaccurate," up three percent from the last poll. Americans are also very wary of outside influences on reporting: 77 percent said they believe news organizations favor one side over another and 80 percent said the news is often influenced by powerful people and organizations.

Americans say they are more trusting of local news than they are of national outlets: 69 percent said they trust local sources either "some" or "a lot," while national news organizations earn 59 percent trust.

When asked the same question about specific government institutions, respondents exhibited notably less trust. Just 50 percent said they trust the Obama administration while just 37 percent said they trust Members of Congress. Only 29 percent said they trust candidates running for office.

In his column this week, Hotline Editor-In-Chief Reid Wilson takes a closer look at Nebraska, where he finds national Democrats are continuing to spend early in to help one of 2012's most vulnerable incumbents:

National Democrats are taking an early stab at bolstering Sen. Ben Nelson's electoral foundation, setting him up as a Washington outsider bringing some order to the chaos. The Nebraska Democratic Party has already run $210,000 worth of television ads on Nelson's behalf over the past two weeks.

Now the party is extending that buy for another two weeks, dropping an additional $220,000, according to Republican sources who watch the advertising market. That's enough money for reasonably sized ad buys of about 400 gross ratings points each in Omaha and Lincoln, the state's two biggest media markets.

With outside groups expected to flood the airwaves later in the cycle, early buys are also a way to get more bang for the buck:

One other factor to consider: Advertising rates are cheap now but will skyrocket next year, thanks to outside groups, party committees, and candidates at all levels scrambling for severely limited inventory. It's a problem that campaigns across the country will face, even if they budget for late, massive buys.

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie wants to lift a tax break that the television show "The Jersey Shore" is enjoying in his state. Conan O'Brien said on Wednesday night, "After hearing this, Snooki said, 'It's official. Now I've been screwed by every guy in New Jersey.'"

And at the United National General Assembly this week, President Obama obstructed the face of the Mongolian president during a group photo as he waved to the camera. Don't miss today's Must See Moment at 1:35 where Jimmy Kimmel reveals the truth behind the awkward photo:

Take our late-night poll after the jump...

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. It's debate night in Orlando, where all eyes will be on Perry as he seeks to bounce back from a lackluster performance in his last outing. Meanwhile, a super PAC defending Orrin Hatch pops up, Issa backs Romney and Rubio lands a former TPaw staffer. Here's today's rundown:

8) Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., has hired Alex Conant, who was the spokesman for Tim Pawlenty's presidential campaign, as his press secretary.

7) A new poll from Phoenix-based GOP pollster Summit Consulting Group shows Mitt Romney leading Texas Gov. Rick Perry in the early-voting state of Arizona, 31 percent to 25 percent. No other candidate earns more than five percent of the vote. Arizona has moved up its primary to Feb. 28 and could be crucial to Romney's chances. The state has a significant LDS population, and Senate candidate Rep. Jeff Flake, R-Ariz., announced his support for Romney earlier this week.

6) House Oversight and Government Reform Committee Chairman Darrell Issa, R-Calif., is endorsing Romney.

5) Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr., D-Ill, and two other African-American Democratic congressmen in Illinois, are suddenly raising concerns about the Democratic-drawn lines in their home state. Jackson's complaints come as former Rep. Debbie Halvorson has been talking about challenging Jackson in the Democratic primary. Jackson's newly drawn district is still safely Democratic, but extends into the suburbs, making his primary prospects potentially dicey.

Former Sen. George LeMieux, R-Fla., leads the GOP field with 17 percent support in the latest Quinnipiac University survey out Thursday morning, but fully 58 percent of Republican voters remain undecided in the wide open GOP Senate primary.

Second behind LeMieux is Ret. U.S. Army Col. Mike McCalister at 11 percent. Tied at third with five percent each are former state House Majority Leader Adam Hasner and former Ruth's Chris Steakhouse CEO Craig Miller.

Among Tea Party voters, Hasner lags badly behind LeMieux, 28 percent to 9 percent. Hasner has been campaigning as the most conservative candidate in the field, courting the same conservative voters that backed Marco Rubio over former Florida Gov. Charlie Crist in last year's GOP primary.

This is the third consecutive live caller poll showing a majority of GOP voters are undecided about the Republican contest. A Sachs/Mason-Dixon poll conducted in late August showed 52 percent were undecided while the previous Quinnipiac survey, conducted in early August, showed 53 percent were undecided.

Sen. Bill Nelson, facing the prospect of a tough re-election, has a 45 percent approval rating with 32 percent disapproving. Nelson leads a generic Republican 43 to 34 percent and 44 percent of voters said they feel Nelson deserves to be reelected, while 33 percent said he does not.

Obama's approval rating in the state, meanwhile, has fallen below 40 percent. Just 39 percent of all Florida voters approve of the job Obama is doing, while 57 percent disapprove. In early August, Obama's approval rating in the state was 44 percent. A majority of voters now feel that Obama does not deserve to be reelected, his worst score on that measure. Only 41 percent of voters feel he does deserve to be reelected, including only 39 percent of independents.

Florida Republicans prefer Texas Gov. Rick Perry to former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll conducted ahead of Thursday's debate and this weekend's Presidency V straw poll in Orlando.

Perry leads Romney, 28 percent to 22 percent, according to the poll, reversing a ten-point Romney advantage from early August, before Perry formally declared his candidacy. When Republicans were asked to choose just between the two frontrunners, Perry increases his lead to eight points, 46 percent to 38 percent.

But in general election matchups against President Obama, Romney runs stronger: He leads Obama, 47 percent to 40 percent, while Perry trails the president, 44 percent to 42 percent. Among independents, Romney beats Obama by nine points, but Obama bests Perry by six.

Texas Gov. Rick Perry may be the national frontrunner for the 2012 Republican nomination for president, but former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney holds a commanding lead in the first-in-the-nation primary state of New Hampshire, according to a new Suffolk University poll released late Wednesday.

Romney has a 27-point lead over his closest rival in the state, Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, leading Paul, 41 percent to 14 percent. Former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, who has struggled to gain traction thus far in the campaign, pulls in 10 percent, easily his best showing in any state-level or national poll, outside of his home state.

Perry finishes fourth in the poll at eight percent, a full 33 points behind Romney. He is trailed by former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin at six percent, Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., at five percent, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich with four percent, and former Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pa., and former Louisiana Gov. Buddy Roemer each earned just one percent.

Romney posts an even higher percentage among those most likely to vote (44 percent) and among self-identified conservatives (48 percent).

Updated at 5:53 p.m.

According to a state audit released Wednesday, Missouri Republican Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder may have been involved in a conflict of interest when he served as chairman of a non-profit that received state money while Kinder served concurrently as chairman of the state Tourism Commission.

"While serving as the Chairman of the Tourism Commission, Kinder also served simultaneously as the Chairman of the Board for Tour of Missouri, Inc., the non-profit entity receiving funding from the Division of Tourism to administer the Tour of Missouri bicycle race in September 2008 and 2009," the audit says.

"The commission minutes do not indicate whether the Lieutenant Governor notified the commission and the division about his role with Tour of Missouri, Inc., and the possibility of a conflict of interest."

Kinder is still deciding whether he will run for governor against Democratic incumbent Jay Nixon. Democrats seized on the audit, while Kinder's office cited an "accidental failure."

The National Republican Senatorial Committee outraised the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee during the month of August by nearly $500,000.

The NRSC brought in $2.96 million while the DSCC raised nearly $2.5 million during the month.

The DSCC ended the month with more money in the bank, with $9.23 million cash on hand, topping the NRSC's $5.2 million cash on hand. The NRSC is the only one of the six committees that is currently debt-free. The DSCC finished the month with nearly $1.5 million in debt.

Former Sen. Norm Coleman, R-Minn., will serve as a special adviser on policy to Mitt Romney, the former Massachusetts governor's presidential campaign announced Wednesday.

The move is notable because of Coleman's role as the founder of the American Action Network, a top independent fundraising organization.

"I am happy to announce Senator Coleman as an adviser to my campaign," said Romney. "His advice will be critical as I lay out my vision for improving our economy at home and strengthening our partnerships around the world."

Coleman, who was unseated by Sen. Al Franken following a lengthy recount that extended beyond the 2008 election well into 2009, started American Action Network in early 2010. The influential 501(c)(4) was a major presence in last year's campaign, spending the second most among all outside groups during the cycle, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. As a 501(c)(4), the organization does not have to disclose its donors.

Coleman, who is Jewish, has been a prominent backer of Israel -- a fact that he highlighted in a statement issued by the Romney campaign. "As a strong supporter of Israel, I am also confident that he is the best candidate to restore America's relationship with Israel," Coleman said of Romney. Coleman's vote of confidence comes at a time when Romney's chief rival for the GOP nomination, Texas Gov. Rick Perry is making a strong play for the Jewish vote with outspoken support for the Jewish state.

"Throughout his life, Mitt Romney has displayed the leadership that will be needed to get our economy back on track and to preserve, and in some cases mend, our relationships with allies around the world. As a strong supporter of Israel, I am also confident that he is the best candidate to restore America's relationship with Israel," said Coleman.

Rep. Joe Walsh, R-Ill., will run in the new 14th District next year, setting up what could be a bitter GOP primary with fellow freshman Rep. Randy Hultgren, R-Ill.

Walsh announced his decision in an email Wednesday to supporters, writing that, regardless of legal challenges Republicans have filed, he has chosen to run in the new seat because it now includes his home of McHenry.

"No matter which map prevails, I've decided to run for re-election from the district in which I live and where I represent most of my current constituents," said Walsh. "If the Democrat map stands, I will be running in what is the new 14th district which entails a good portion of Lake County, almost all of McHenry County, Kane County, Kendall County, and some of Will and DeKalb Counties. I live in McHenry and my current District office is in Northern Lake County. This area is home."

Walsh says it was "unfortunate" that he and Hultgren will be pitted against each other, but that the district "doesn't belong to any Incumbent or any politician. The district belongs to the people of this district and they will have to decide who their next representative is. And if they have to decide between two Republican Incumbents, so be it - in many ways Randy and I are both good conservatives who share many of the same values but there are also healthy differences between the two of us, we've both had a very different initial tenure in Washington, and the voters in the new district will decide which one of us will best be their voice in DC."

The primary will set up a stark contrast between the two freshmen Republicans. Walsh has been an unabashed tea party supporter and has never shied away from the spotlight - he's the 2nd most interviewed new member. But all that attention hasn't been good - he's most recently been embroiled in a child support with his ex-wife, and a judge ruled last week that Walsh now has to prove he did make the $100,000 in payments to her.

In a statement responding to Walsh's decision, Hultgren said he was "disappointed that Walsh had "abandon[ed] his own district to run against me in a primary. By doing so, he's playing into the hands of the Springfield Democrats and Nancy Pelosi, who have drawn the Congressional map for Illinois specifically to encourage just such a contest."

As an alternative to taxing millionaires and billionaires, Stephen Colbert on Tuesday proposed building on Republicans' suggestion to broaden the tax base by also "deepening" it to include dead Americans.

"Let's force these cadaver-can Americans to pay in the form of rings, watches and whatever else we can pry from their cold, dead hands," Colbert quipped.

Don't miss today's Must See Moment at 1:04 where Jay Leno picks the product that best serves as a backdrop for Michele Bachmann's stump speeches:

Take our late-night poll after the jump...

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Yet another poll shows President Obama's favorability sliding while Gary Johnson snags a spot in Thursday's debate and Jamie Radtke wonders why she can't participate in one between Kaine and Allen. Meanwhile, early voting kicks off in West Virginia, Feinstein will give to her own campaign and Twitter begins to sell political advertising. Here's today's rundown:

10) Make room for one more: Gary Johnson will take part in Thursday's Fox News debate in Orlando because he cracked 1 percent in the latest five national polls in which he was included.

9) Mitt Romney announced on Tuesday that he was forming a Congressional team to recruit party leaders to join his campaign led by Sen. Roy Blunt, R-Mo.

8) The first debate in the heavyweight matchup between firmer Democratic National Committee Chairman Tim Kaine and former Sen. George Allen is set for Dec. 7 in Richmond. But Republican candidate Jamie Radtke isn't happy about the criteria used to select participants. "The AP and VCCA is using its Mainstream Media power to shut down conservative Virginians, saying: We will pick your Senate candidates," she said Tuesday, urging supporters to contact the debate's organizers.

7) Twitter is beginning to sell political advertising, Politico's Ben Smith reports. A source told Smith that Romney and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee are among the early advertisers.

Levi Johnston doesn't pull any punches in his new book, "Deer in the Headlights: My Life in Sarah Palin's Crosshairs" (Touchstone Books), which was released Tuesday. Though he's no Joe McGinniss, Johnston's book doesn't offer particularly flattering depictions of Sarah Palin and her daughter, Bristol Palin, as it includes descriptions of S. Palin's temper tantrums following her 2008 loss ("She said (Pres.) Obama cheated to win. She talked as if they were they only two running. ... Sarah and Barack, in hand-to-hand combat") and B. Palin's desire to have a baby after she found out her mother was pregnant.

Johnston even compares his relationship with S. Palin and her daughter, to "The Graduate" (Guess who plays Benjamin?). But the true genius of the book is Johnston's ability to capture his own failings, in a way only a teen-father/wanna-be-celebrity can.

The Hotline relied on the time-honored practice of using the "excerpt lottery," in which page numbers are chosen based upon recent winning lottery numbers from various states. Also check out our recent account of Christine O'Donnell's book, using the same method. The results:

"I was John Wayne who had just ridden in to the rescue the pretty lady in distress. Sarah could have been the one in labor. She looked a mess, hair stuck to her forehead, glasses askew. A little like the librarian who just let down her hair.

"Poor Bristol was twisting and turning, throwing her body side to side. ... Oh my God. My babe was in serious pain" -- p. 139 (Va.'s "Daily 3," 9/19).

Almost $44 million was spent by outside groups, candidates, and committees during the Wisconsin recall elections, according to a new estimate.

The Wisconsin Democracy Campaign, which tracks spending, estimates that $43.9 million was spent in the nine legislative recall elections held this summer. You can view the group's full report -- which was based on disclosure reports and estimations for groups that did not disclose -- here. A few of the notable findings:

-- Estimates of total spending -- including outside groups, candidates, state parties, recall committees and two legislative leadership committees -- found Democrats outspent Republicans $23.4 million to $20.5 million.

-- The most expensive recall race was the in the 8th District (Suburban Milwaukee), where nearly $10 million was spent. Republican Alberta Darling won reelection against Democratic challenger Sandy Pasch in the 8th District race.

-- Special interest group spending was led by We Are Wisconsin, a political action committee that worked with groups on the left including labor organizations, EMILY's List and Democracy for America, among others, and spent a record $10.75 million. Number two was the state arm of the Club for Growth, a conservative group which spent an estimated $9 million. Club for Growth Wisconsin is an issue ad group that is not required to disclose any fundraising and spending activities.

The first clash of the Virginia titans is set to get underway on December 7 as former Sen. George Allen and former Democratic National Committee Chairman Tim Kaine are set to debate for the first time in the Senate race.

Richmond is set to play host to the two frontrunners during this year's Associated Press Day at the State Capitol. According to the AP's Bob Lewis, Allen and Kaine are invited, and have committed to participate while other candidates must reach an average of 15 percent in "published, non-candidate primary polls" and must have "raised at least 20 percent as much money as their party's frontrunner by the end of October."

Given the criteria, it is unlikely that any other candidates will qualify for the 90-minute debate. Journalist Bob Gibson, who serves as the executive director for the nonpartisan Sorensen Institute for Political Leadership at the University of Virginia, is slated to moderate the debate, according to the AP. The Wednesday debate is hosted by the Virginia AP Managing Editors and the Virginia Capitol Correspondents Association.

Nebraska Attorney General Jon Bruning leads the GOP pack in in the Cornhusker State according to new survey from a Democratic pollster, but nearly half of Republican respondents are undecided about the race.

With the support of 29 percent of registered Republicans, Bruning leads the way in the poll, conducted by Lake Research Partners for Bold Nebraska, a group opposed to the Keystone XL crude-oil pipeline. He's followed by state Treasurer Don Stenberg at 12 percent, state Sen. Deb Fischer at 8 percent and businessman Pat Flynn at 1 percent.

Bruning is the GOP frontrunner in the Senate race, but he's had a rough past few months marked by lackluster fundraising, an ethics complaint from Democrats, and a comment comparing welfare recipients to raccoons.

The poll of 604 general election voters was conducted from Aug. 29 to Sept. 1 and included a sub-sample of 314 registered Republicans who were asked about the GOP primary. The survey of the primary carries a margin of error of +/- 5.6 percent.

Updated at 1:18 p.m.

Former Rep. Pete Hoekstra's, R-Mich., Senate campaign has released a strategy memo signaling the former congressman's focus has been squarely on his biggest question mark: fundraising.

"Fundraising is going well, and we are cautiously optimistic that we can reach a gross receipt number in the range of $400,000 to $500,000 in this first quarter of fundraising," Hoekstra's team writes.

"At Pete's direction, we haven't hired any campaign staff yet, outside of our fundraising team."

It's an attempt aimed at shoring up concerns over a perceived weakness, following an underwhelming financial outing by the Republican in last year's governor's race.

As recently as late August, Hoekstra said in a fundraising email that he needed "to raise at least $500,000 before September 30th to meet the expectations of the national party and earn their confidence that Michigan Republicans are doing what it takes to win this critical election."

"In a shameless attempt to lower expectations, Hoekstra's team is putting out artificially low numbers and relying on talking points that are just flat out wrong," said Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spokesman Shripal Shah.

The memo also tacitly addresses other potential concerns, and touts what has been a decidedly impressive slate of early endorsements.

Texas Gov. Rick Perry and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney lead the Republican presidential field in the early primary state of South Carolina, according to a new Winthrop University poll released early Tuesday.

Among those who say they are "definitely" planning to vote in the 2012 Republican presidential primary, Perry, who announced his bid for the White House in the Palmetto State last month, leads Romney, 31 percent to 27 percent, with no other candidates in double-digits.

Businessman Herman Cain was third at eight percent, and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin followed with six percent. Trailing the rest of the field were former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at five percent; Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, at four percent; Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., at four percent; former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman at two percent; and former Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pa., at two percent. Eleven percent were undecided.

When asked which candidate was most likely to win the Republican nomination, 35 percent of definite GOP voters chose Perry, compared to 29 percent who backed Romney.

President Obama's newly proposed "Buffett rule" was fodder for late-night jokes on Monday.

"Obama has proposed a new tax increase," Conan O'Brien said. "At first Newt Gingrich was for it because he thought it was the buffet rule."

Don't miss today's Must See Moment at 1:59 when Obama show up at the Emmy's:

Take our late-night poll after the jump...

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Linda McMahon prepares to run against Chris Shays in Connecticut, while Hoekstra's campaign sets fundraising expectations in Michigan. Meanwhile, Perry is speaking about Israel, while Deval Patrick isn't quite "car-free." Here's today's rundown:

7) Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick recently declared this "Car-Free Week," but was seen but was seen with his assigned state trooper at the wheel for the drive into work in his SUV. "I carpooled this morning with my trooper," Patrick said with a chuckle, "We both had to come together." Boston's WBZ has the full story.

6) Good polling data for two Democratic governors of large, blue states: A new Field Poll out early Tuesday shows a healthy plurality of California voters approve of the job that Gov. Jerry Brown is doing in his second stint in Sacramento. Meanwhile, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo continues to enjoy sky-high approval ratings: Nearly two-thirds of voters approve of the job Cuomo is doing in a new Quinnipiac University poll released early Tuesday, the highest approval rating Quinnipiac has ever measured for any Empire State governor.

5) The New Hampshire Union Leader reports that conservative activist Kevin Smith is expected to unveil an exploratory committee to lay the groundwork for a gubernatorial campaign in the Granite State as early as next week.

Texas Gov. Rick Perry leads former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in a new USA Today/Gallup poll of the race for the Republican presidential nomination. Romney runs slightly stronger against President Obama in a general election matchup, though each matchup is within the margin of error.

The poll, released by Gallup early Tuesday, shows the GOP race is down to a two-man contest. Perry earns 31 percent of the vote among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, versus 24 percent for Romney. Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, is the only other candidate in double-digits, at 13 percent. Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and businessman Herman Cain are well back, tied at five percent.

Former Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pa., has two percent, and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman brings up the rear with one percent. Four percent chose another candidate, and ten percent are undecided.

When their choices are narrowed down to just the top two candidates, 49 percent of Republican respondents choose Perry, while 39 percent select Romney.

But in general election matchups among registered voters, Romney edges Obama, 49 percent to 47 percent, while Obama leads Perry, 50 percent to 45 percent. Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say by a slight margin that they prefer a candidate who has the best chance of beating Obama in 2012, even if that that candidate does not agree with them on almost all of the issues about which they care -- though it remains to be seen if Romney comes to be viewed as the more electable candidate by Republican voters. A CNN/ORC International poll released last week showed that Republicans currently think Perry has the better chance to beat Obama, though that poll also showed Romney running stronger among all voters.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has outraised the National Republican Congressional Committee for the month of August, bringing in $3.56 million during the typically slow recess month compared to the NRCC's $3 million.

The NRCC still has a hefty cash on hand advantage over their Democratic counterparts, though. The GOP House campaign arm has $11.7 million in the bank to the DCCC's $7.7 million. The DCCC has also now paid off most of the $19.7 million in debt it carried at the beginning of the year and is now only $3.3 million in the red. But the NRCC still carries less debt - only $2.5 million.

Still, House Democratic minority has bested the GOP's yearlong fundraising totals, bringing in $41.26 million so far this off year, compared to the Republicans' roughly $40.38 million.

"Republicans' radical agenda continues to energize our Democratic supporters who are excited that the House Majority is in play," DCCC Chair Steve Israel said in a statement. "Despite being in the minority, the DCCC promised we would be aggressive every day including with our fundraising and it's now clear we will have the resources to hold Republicans accountable for their extreme agenda and to put the House Republican Majority in jeopardy."

Sen. Dean Heller, R-Nev., leads Democratic Rep. Shelley Berkley by six points in one of the marquee Senate races of the 2012 cycle, according to a new survey conducted by a Republican pollster.

Heller leads Berkley, 48 percent to 42 percent, according to the poll, conducted by Glen Bolger of Alexandria, Va.-based Public Opinion Strategies. The poll, which was conducted for the Retail Association of Nevada, was first reported by Jon Ralston of the Las Vegas Sun.

Heller leads Berkley by 10 points among men and two points among women. Heller leads by 22 points in the state's 2nd District -- where Republican Mark Amodei just won a special election over Democrat Kate Marshall by 22 points. Heller represented the district before he was chosen to replace disgraced former GOP Sen. John Ensign, who resigned earlier this year.

The poll was conducted Sept. 14-15, surveying 500 likely voters. The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percent.

Some takeaways from Republican Ovide Lamontagne's launch in New Hampshire this morning:

-- Kicking off his gubernatorial campaign, Lamontagne presented himself as a candidate with widespread appeal, touting a list of supporters who hail from different cross-sections of the electorate.

"I am humbled by the overwhelming and diverse support shown in my initial leadership committee, made up of more than 200 conservatives, moderates, independents, tea party, business and community leaders from across New Hampshire," he said.

It's a notable opening for a candidate who has made his mark as a champion of conservative activists and Tea Party voters in the past. At the same time, the list is a reflection of the connections Lamontagne has made by virtue of the fact that in some ways, he has been part of the establishment (he previously served as legal counsel for the state party, for example).

-- Lamontagne's campaign experience -- evident in the list of supporters he was able to put together -- could also provide fodder to GOP opponents looking to cast him as more insider than outsider. While he has pitched himself in 2010 as "not the establishment candidate," he's become a familiar face and is not new to making statewide bids, having run for both governor and the Senate before.

In a district in which voters will likely be on-the-lookout for hints of scandal and ethical lapses, a series of unflattering reports last week about Oregon Labor Commissioner Brad Avakian's finances, could spell trouble for the Democrat's campaign for former Oregon Democratic Rep. David Wu's seat.

On Wednesday, Willamette Week reported that, while serving in the state legislature, Avakian sent his resume to state lobbyists and asked for help finding a job, that he has been sued by collectors four times for failure to pay bills on-time, that he twice failed to pay his taxes - once accruing a $13,000 tax lien - and that he was briefly suspended from the state bar for failing to pay dues.

Spokesperson Jake Weigler told Hotline On Call that Avakian and his wife have since paid off those debts. "Voters are frustrated with D.C. politicians who are unconnected with the realities of trying to balance a check book and make ends meet during difficult times. Commissioner Avakian, like many Oregon families, has had good times and bad times and through that experience is better equipped to cut through the political posturing on our nation's finances," Weigler said.

Weigler added that the Avakians have no outstanding debts, "though he is still continuing paying off his (student) loans like many middle class Americans." The Avakian campaign had no outstanding debts as of June 30, the most recent period for which financial data was available.

He also defended sending the email to lobbyists from his personal account at the end of the 2005 legislative session. Avakian told the Week that he felt the email was appropriate. "When Commissioner Avakian was looking for work in 2005, he reached out to a wide range of attorneys -- including lobbyists -- to let them know he was seeking legal or administrative work. He did not ask for any favors, nor did he receive any," Weigler told On Call.

Amid polls suggesting support for President Obama slipping among Hispanic voters, the Democratic National Committee released a Spanish-language television ad Monday that aims to rally Hispanic voters behind Obama's American Jobs Act.

The DNC ad calls Obama "a president ready to fight" for jobs, and highlights three provisions of his plan: construction jobs linked to public infrastructure projects, tax cuts for small businesses and credits to businesses that employ veterans.

"In the face of Republicans, the president can't do it alone," the narrator tells viewers in the spot. Viewers are urged to "read the plan."

Washington Attorney General Rob McKenna leads Rep. Jay Inslee, D-Wash., by seven points, according to a new survey of the governor's race in the Evergreen State.

McKenna leads Inslee 46 percent to 39 percent in a poll conducted by Strategies 360, a firm that employs both Democrats and Republicans. The head of Strategies 360, Ron Dotzauer, ran Democratic Sen. Maria Cantwell's 2000 campaign.

Kevin Ingham, vice president of polling and research at Strategies 360 notes that McKenna is benefiting from stronger name identification, appeal to President Obama voters and a consolidated base.

Among voters polled who could identify both candidates, Inslee leads McKenna 46-45 percent. Among those who could only ID McKenna, the attorney general leads 61-26 percent. These findings suggest an opportunity for Inslee to climb in the polls; but the figures also mean there is an early chance for McKenna to define his Democratic opponent.

The poll's findings illuminate the moderate McKenna's ability to attract crossover votes in a race against Inslee that is widely expected to be one of 2012's most competitive. The attorney general's lead over Inslee among independents is 46-30 percent.

McKenna narrowly ran ahead of Obama statewide in 2008, with just under 60 percent of the vote. In the Strategies 360 poll, McKenna takes 18 percent of those who voted for Obama in 2008, while Inslee takes just 4 percent of Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., voters.

Obama, who won just under 58 percent of the Evergreen State's vote in 2008, tops the two GOP presidential frontrunners in head-to-head matchups in the survey. The president leads Texas Gov. Rick Perry 51 to 37 percent and tops Mitt Romney 49 to 40 percent.

Evergreen State voters are split in their opinion of the job the president is doing: 49 percent approve and 48 percent disapprove.

Former Wisconsin governor Tommy Thompson announced that he's preparing to run for the Senate and has already filed campaign documents for the race, on WTMJ Radio.

"I've filed my corporation documents today, which allows me to build my organization, raise money, so I can go out there and tell the story," Thompson told conservative talk show host Charlie Sykes. "An announcement will be coming very soon... we're doing it in steps because that's what the federal law requires."

He said that one of his major campaign themes will be entitlement reform. Thompson, as governor of Wisconsin in the 1990s, was one of the first GOP governors to tackle welfare reform. Some of the ideas were later implemented at the federal level, under then-President Bill Clinton. He later served as Health and Human Services Secretary under former President George W. Bush.

Thompson faces a competitive primary against former Rep. Mark Neumann. Neumann has already been endorsed by the anti-tax Club for Growth, which has already been advertising against Thompson's campaign. Neumann unsuccessfully ran for governor against Gov. Scott Walker in last year's Republican gubernatorial primary, and ran against former Sen. Russ Feingold in 1998.

Democrats are already rallying around Rep. Tammy Baldwin, who represents the party's progressive base in Madison.

"Real Time" host Bill Maher on Friday went after the Republican field, but didn't miss an opportunity to take a pot-shot at President Obama.

About Texas Gov. Rick Perry, Maher said: "At the tea party debate, Gov. Jesus McBang-Bang was actually beaten up by the other candidates for being too far left on public health, immigration and taxes. Honestly this man is not some kind of centrist Republican. This man is," Maher said as he flashed a photo of Obama.

Don't miss today's Must See Moment at 0:40 to see where Donald Trump REALLY took Perry for dinner last week.

Take our late-night poll after the jump...

What would have made the best location for the Perry-Trump dinner?

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. In New Hampshire, Ovide's in and Jeb Bradley's out. In North Carolina, Bev Perdue could be facing a primary challenge. And President Obama hopes to raise taxes on the wealthy to help balance the budget. Here's today's rundown:

8) Thanks, mom! Newly minted Rep. Mark Amodei, R-Nev., is already making new friends in Washington. "Paul Ryan wants to meet my mother," Amodei told the Las Vegas Sun. "He says, 'tell your mother thank you, I'd like to meet her.'" Amodei's mother appeared in TV ads that effectively helped the Republican defend himself against charges that he wanted to "end Medicare."

7) Is North Carolina Democratic state Rep. Bill Faison considering challenging vulnerable Democratic Gov. Bev Perdue? The Raleigh News & Observer reports Faison said he is running for reelection, but demurred when asked about rumors that he is considering running against Perdue. Here's what he told WRAL: "I think her numbers do not look good. I think her situation does not look good. It's possible she may decide to do something else. She may not want to run for a second term. Should that occur, I certainly would be interested in considering a race."

6) In addition to Michael Reagan, Republican Orly Taitz, a leading figure in the "birther" movement who ran for secretary of state last year, says she is "absolutely" considering challenging Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., in 2012, the Sacramento Bee reports.

What we at The Hotline learned this week:

-- The scariest numbers for President Obama in this week's Virginia Quinnipiac poll: just 29 percent of independents and 28 percent of whites approve of his job performance. That's significant slippage: Obama nearly won a majority of independents in Virginia, according to the 2008 exit poll. But the poll had some encouraging numbers for Democrat Tim Kaine, who is running neck-and-neck with Republican George Allen in the Senate race: Kaine is leading Allen in Northern Virginia and tied in the Tidewater. And the fact that he's running well ahead of Obama bodes well for his chances.

-- Texas Gov. Rick Perry went after Obama's policy toward Israel in a Wall Street Journal op-ed Friday, but more broadly, he has offered very little concrete foreign policy so far. He's got an opportunity to push back against the image that he is uncomfortable talking about foreign affairs - but that opportunity won't be there forever and the next debate will be a major marker for him on the topic.

-- With the special election defeat of two more sitting office-holders in House races this week, self-funding Senate candidates will be more encouraged than ever that 2012 could again be the year of the outsider. Several Republicans are now sniffing around the presumably unbeatable Sen. Bob Casey in Pennsylvania, and there's still time and room in a few other Senate contests: Think New Jersey, Washington, Wisconsin, West Virginia, or Utah. On the other hand, former Rep. Chris Shays, R-Conn., might well be a stronger nominee in Connecticut than 2010 nominee Linda McMahon, and other self-funding Republicans in Missouri and Arizona appear likely to introduce an unstable element into fields that had appeared to be settled.

-- Time is on your side. Unless it's not. In Wisconsin, Rep. Ron Kind's, D-Wis., decision not to run for the Senate is a boost for Rep. Tammy Baldwin, who, barring a bid from former Rep. Steve Kagen, will face little or no competition in the Democratic primary. On the GOP side, a nasty one is brewing, with allies of both former Rep. Mark Neumann and former Gov. Tommy Thompson already taking shots at the other side. Wisconsin's September primary means the potential for a lot more Republican infighting; and that's a recipe for a battered Baldwin opponent come the general election, should she advance. However, it might also help Baldwin, who's never run beyond her Madison district, to have the experience of a statewide primary campaign before being subjected to GOP attacks.

-- But what's good for Democrats in Wisconsin isn't so much in Massachusetts, where Elizabeth Warren also has a September primary to think about. While Warren is the clear frontrunner in the Democratic race, Alan Khazei has shown signs of fight in him, while local Democrats have frowned at national coronation of the former CFPB adviser. Khazei also has money, which can equal negative ads.

The National Republican Congressional Committee raised $3 million during the month of August. Their latest fundraising haul brings their cash on hand total to $11.7 million.

The House Republicans' campaign arm also continues to reduce their remaining debt from the 2010 midterms, now only $2.5 million in the red after paying down $250,000 last month. In July, the NRCC raised $3.88 million and had $11.29 million cash on hand.

Monthly filings from campaign committees are due on September 20th. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has not yet released their numbers.

For the first time, more Americans have an unfavorable opinion of President Obama than have a favorable opinion of him, according to a new CBS News/New York Times poll released late Friday, an indication that dissatisfaction with the president's job performance and the direction of the country is dragging down how Americans view Obama personally.

Just 39 percent of Americans have a favorable opinion of Obama, while 42 percent view him unfavorably. In January of this year, 40 percent had a favorable image of Obama, and 34 percent had an unfavorable opinion. In January 2009, as he was inaugurated, 60 percent of Americans had a favorable opinion of him.

While the president's approval rating -- which is down to 43 percent in the new poll, an all-time low -- is an important indicator of his re-election standing, the high regard Americans felt for Obama personally was a sign that Americans hadn't yet given up on his presidency.

Republican pollster Glen Bolger made this point earlier this week in a blog post on the website of his firm, Alexandria, Va.-based Public Opinion Strategies. In the most recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey, conducted late last month by Democratic pollster Peter Hart and Republican pollster Bill McInturff (Bolger's partner at POS), equal percentages of Americans had positive and negative opinions of Obama.

This weekend Meet the Press, Face the Nation, and This Week will host Bill Clinton as he prepares for the 7th annual Clinton Global Initiative meeting. He'll reflect on his presidency, the 2012 presidential race, and possible solutions to spur job growth.

One place Clinton won't be going on this week will be Fox News Sunday where his last interview in 2006 made news as the former president and host Chris Wallace argued for much of it.

On Fox News Sunday, Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis., will offer his perspective on the job plans offered by President Obama and House Speaker John Boehner. GOP Presidential candidate Herman Cain will participate in Fox News Sunday's sit down series with 2012 candidates.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell will be on Meet the Press to analyze the president's jobs plan, and discuss the economy and the 2012 Republican field. Dick Cheney will be on Face the Nation to discuss his book.

Former United Kingdom Prime Minister Tony Blair will talk about the developments in Israel on This Week as the Palestinian Liberation Organization seeks recognition from the United Nations. Israeli Ambassador to the United States Michael Oren and Palestinian Chief Representative to the United Nations Maen Areikat will be on State of the Union to discuss the same developments.

Get the full listings after the jump.

It's wise not to take rides from people you don't know. But what about people you know have worked against you? In the case of newly minted Rep. Bob Turner, R-N.Y., the answer is, sure, why not -- especially if it is raining.

Capitol Tonight spots a great tidbit from Turner's interview with Curtis Sliwa this morning on 970AM in New York City, in which Turner, who was sworn in as a House representative Thursday, reveals that he got a lift in Washington the same day from an unlikely source.

"It was raining raining like crazy, couldn't get a cab. Guess who drives by and gives me a lift? (Rep.) Joe Crowley, (D-N.Y.)," Turner told Sliwa.

Crowley, also the Queens County Democratic Party chairman, was responsible for selecting David Weprin in the special election that Turner won in an upset on Tuesday. What's more, Turner's district could be partly absorbed by Crowley's district following redistricting.

"He is a very pleasant, funny guy. We had a good chat," Turner added of Crowley.

"You know you could have been floating in the Potomac? ... He could have drove you across the Potomac and all of a sudden they would have been looking for your DNA," said Sliwa.

Kentucky Democratic Gov. Steve Beshear launched his first negative television ad of the campaign against Republican state Senate President David Williams late last week in what some observers say looks like an effort to not only beat Williams at the polls but to beat him in the legislature too.

The second-half of the 30-second spot "Different Priorities" focuses on Williams' fiscal record while the first half praises Beshear. It comes in response to a negative ad launched last week by Williams' campaign that called out Beshear for poor management.

Williams is set to return to Frankfurt next year in a leadership position, whether it's as governor or the top Republican in the upper chamber of the legislature.

For Beshear, the latter means Williams would be still an obstacle to overcome in order to pass Democratic legislative priorities. Louisville Courier-Journal columnist Al Cross identified one Democratic goal that Beshear could conceivably muscle through the legislature with a weakened Williams: raising the high school drop-out age from 16 to 18. Williams opposes such a move at least in part because of cost. Beshear has also tangled significantly with Williams on gambling and Medicaid.

"My theory is that they want him to get him ousted from president of the Senate," said Cross. "The first thing to occur to me was that they want him out as president of the Senate."

The idea is that by running up the score against Williams, his Republican colleagues will not want him in power as he'll be perceived as unpopular with the electorate. Cross told Hotline On Call that Beshear has two magic numbers for the fall in order to create a strong perception of power among citizens and politicians: win by at least a 2-to-1 margin and capture at least 60 percent of the vote.

President Obama won two-thirds of the Hispanic vote in 2008, but according to new Republican-commissioned polls of Hispanics in three key battleground states, Obama has lost some ground among the crucial voting bloc.

The GOP group Resurgent Republic, in conjunction with the Hispanic Leadership Network, another Republican organization, commissioned polls in Florida, Colorado and New Mexico. Each is a state with a significant Latino population that Obama won in 2008 but went for George W. Bush in 2004. And in each state, the GOP polls claim, Obama is underperforming among Hispanics, compared to three years ago.

In Florida, when matched up against a generic Republican, the poll shows Obama leading, 46 percent to 36 percent. In 2008, Obama won Latinos in the state, 57 percent to 42 percent. That represented a reversal from 2004, when Bush won 56 percent of the Hispanic vote in the state.

Hispanic voters in Colorado chose Obama over a generic Republican by a wider, 59-percent-to-27-percent margin, according to the poll -- roughly in line with the 61 percent he won in 2008, according to exit polls. In New Mexico, Obama earns 58 percent support against a generic Republican in the poll, down from 69 percent in 2008.

The polls also show that Hispanics in all three states overwhelmingly think the country is headed in the wrong direction, and most Hispanics believe that Obama has not delivered on the promises he made to Latinos during the 2008 election.

The South once stood as a political stronghold for Democrats. Governor's mansions and state legislatures across the region remained mostly blue for at least a century after the Civil War. But as Hotline Editor-In-Chief Reid Wilson recently pointed out, those days have come to an end.

The demise of the Democratic Party in the South has been on full display this year in Mississippi and Louisiana. In each state, Democrats have failed to put candidates on the ballot in a variety of statewide races. With no credible Democratic challenger in the race in Louisiana, Gov. Bobby Jindal's reelection is all but assured.

Against this backdrop, Hattiesburg Mayor Johnny DuPree is trying to beat the odds. DuPree, the Democratic nominee for governor in Mississippi, faces an uphill climb in his race against Lt. Gov. Phil Bryant, the GOP nominee. Most observers give DuPree virtually no chance at success, just as many thought he wouldn't survive the Democratic primary.

"We were not supposed to be here," DuPree told Hotline on Call.

In April, I wrote about the frustration among Tea Party types with Utah Republican Gov. Gary Herbert, something often overshadowed (at least nationally) by the backlash on the right against Sen. Orrin Hatch. David Kirkham, a very influential Tea Party organizer in the state, has been a vocal critic of Herbert, and he now says he's considering running against the governor.

"I think Gary Herbert is very weak politically. I think he has made some bad decisions and we need strong leadership in the state. We need the state to lead, we really do, and I don't see that happening," Kirkham told the Salt Lake Tribune.

Kirkham's also considering a primary against Hatch, in the wake of Rep. Jason Chaffetz's surprising decision not to run. But even as Tea Party dissatisfaction with both statewide officials lingers, there are no clear challengers yet for each race.

But that doesn't mean either is out of the woods by any estimation. State Sen. Dan Liljenquist, is one of several Republicans weighing campaigns against Hatch.

Also keep in mind that in 2010, now-GOP Sen. Mike Lee did not officially launch his campaign until January. That followed the decision late in 2009 by Attorney General Mark Shurtleff, considered then to the biggest threat to then Sen. Bob Bennett, to pull out of the race.

Singer/songwriter Barry Manilow arrived on Capitol Hill Thursday to raise awareness of atrial fibrillation. He left with a gift.

The Omaha-World-Herald caught up with Sen. Ben Nelson, D-Neb., who gave Manilow a copy of his single, "Western Town."

"He writes the songs that make girls cry," Nelson told the paper. "We have that in common, because when I sing, then they cry, too."

Nelson's song was recorded years ago and was featured in the movie "California Dreaming." It was also part of the charity album "Nebraska Celebrities Sing for Sight," a benefit for the Nebraska Foundation for Visually Impaired Children.

From the chorus: "I'm going home/Where the buffalo roam/So I can see my next of kin/And maybe have a gin."

So, if things don't work out for Nelson in 2012, does he have a musical career to fall back on? Check out "Western Town" after the jump and decide for yourself.

"The Daily Show" jumped on the Solyndra bandwagon, mocking the administration's full-on embrace of the now-failed solar energy company, which received more than $500 million in stimulus money.

"This 'scandal' would only be exploitable if the president had made this one particular company the poster child for the [green-energy] program," Jon Stewart said on Thursday. He then played clips of Obama touring the facility and touting the company. "Oops," Stewart said.

Don't miss today's Must See Moment at 1:32 when Jimmy Kimmel presents "This Week in Unnecessary Censorship" staring Obama, Newt Gingrich, Dick Cheney and Jon Huntsman:

Take our late-night poll after the jump...

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Republicans are unfazed by Perry's branding of the Social Security system as "a Ponzi scheme," in a new poll, while newly minted Rep. Bob Turner is hoping for a clean start. Meanwhile, Michael Reagan mulls a Golden State Senate bid and David Dewhurst is no Elvis. Here's today's rundown

8) A clean start -- literally. The New York Post is reporting that newly sworn-in Rep. Bob Turner's, R-N.Y., family ordered a thorough cleaning of the office space in the House he inherited from Anthony Weiner, after finding an old "Anthony'' toothbrush in the bathroom.

7) Jon Huntsman will receive the endorsement of former Department of Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge in New Hampshire later today.

6) Is Texas Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst the Mitt Romney of the Lone State State Senate race? Texas Tribune makes the comparison in a profile of the GOP Senate frontrunner, who after, climbing the state's political ladder, appears to be next in line to move up. A colorful nugget from the piece: "Dewhurst is likable enough, but he's not exactly Elvis Presley. This isn't a charisma play. He's always put together, usually in a suit. In his ads, when he's on his horse (he's an accomplished cutting horse rider) or in a family shot, he still manages to look like he just stepped out of a catalog."

As former World Wrestling Entertainment executive Linda McMahon prepares a Senate bid for the second consecutive cycle in Connecticut, a new poll out early Friday shows that she leads former Rep. Chris Shays, R-Conn., for the Republican nomination, but Shays runs stronger against the top two Democratic candidates.

McMahon leads Shays among Republicans in the poll, conducted by Quinnipiac University, 50 percent to 35 percent, with 12 percent undecided.

In the Democratic primary, Rep. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., leads former Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz, 36 percent to 26 percent. More than a third of Democrats are undecided.

But while McMahon has the early edge on Shays in the primary, the moderate former congressman appears to be the stronger candidate in the general election. Shays trails Murphy by six points (43 percent to 37 percent), but he narrowly leads Bysiewicz (42 percent to 40 percent).

McMahon, on the other hand, trails Murphy by 11 points (49 percent to 38 percent) and Bysiewicz by eight (46 percent to 38 percent).

More voters are now poised to vote against longtime Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., if she runs in 2012 than are inclined to re-elect her, according to a new Field Poll released early Friday that also shows Feinstein's approval rating -- and Congress' as a whole -- at a low-water mark.

Just 41 percent of voters are inclined to re-elect Feinstein, while 44 percent are not. That is down from 43 percent who were inclined to re-elect her in June, 46 percent in March, and it is well below the 52 percent who were inclined to re-elect her at this stage (August 2005) of her most recent campaign.

Feinstein's approval ratings are at the lowest point of her nearly 19-year tenure in the Senate. Just 41 percent of voters approve of the job she is doing, while 39 percent disapprove. That is down from a 46-percent approval rating in June.

Feinstein's fall comes amid a widespread and intense distrust of Congress as a whole. Only nine percent of voters approve of Congress' job performance, a new low. Sen. Barbara Boxer's, D-Calif., 39-percent approval rating is also a new low.

The drop in Feinstein's re-elect percentage coincides with a steep fall in President Obama's poll numbers in the Golden State.

As the 2011 special gubernatorial race in West Virginia tightens, Republican candidate Bill Maloney is trying to do to acting Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin what 2010 Senate candidate John Raese tried to do to now-Sen. Joe Manchin: tie him directly to President Obama.

Will the strategy work this time?

As Reid Wilson pointed out Thursday, voters cast ballots differently in gubernatorial elections than they do in national elections. And it's more difficult to tie a gubernatorial candidate to the president than it is to tie a Senate candidate to one (although Manchin has done a pretty good job keeping his distance from the president, too).

Mountain Party candidate Bob Henry Baber had said there was little difference between Maloney and Tomblin. In a Wednesday Charleston Gazette story, Maloney disputed that notion by drawing one sharp contrast with his Democratic opponent.

"I know one thing: I will actively campaign against Barack Obama. That's a big difference," Maloney noted.

It isn't the first time Maloney has linked Tomblin with the president.

From Hurricane Irene-related flooding on the Eastern Seaboard to the devastating wildfires in Texas, natural disasters have loomed large in the public consciousness in recent weeks. But in this week's National Journal Congressional Insiders Poll, Republican Congressional Insiders are maintaining a nearly united front in demanding that any disaster relief funds allocated by Congress must be offset by spending cuts elsewhere in the budget.

Sen. Orrin Hatch, R-Utah, dodged a bullet when Rep. Jason Chaffetz said he wouldn't mount a primary challenge, but Hatch doesn't have a totally clean shot at re-election just yet. Some Tea Party Republican types are keeping an eye on state Sen. Dan Liljenquist, who is considering his own bid.

Liljenquist doesn't have the name identification or the money that Chaffetz does, but because of Utah's bizarre convention-centric nominating process, money means less in a Utah primary battle than it does elsewhere. And in a year in which incumbency is the worst stain a candidate can have, any Hatch challenger who can cast themselves as an outsider poses a real threat.

Hatch has been holding meetings with Tea Party activists to try to ameliorate their concerns. But if they're angry at Washington, playing up his experience in the capital probably isn't the best card.

Hatch's argument to the Provo Daily Herald as to why he should be re-elected: "Look, Utah will never get another chairman on the Senate finance committee."

We doubt that sentiment will carry much heft with those who just want to vote everyone in Washington out of office.

New Hampshire Gov. John Lynch's decision not to run for a fifth term puts a gubernatorial race in play that Democrats would have been favored to hold if Lynch decided to stick around. That means another very real pickup opportunity for Republicans next year in an already opportunity-rich cycle.

"New Hampshire Republicans were already fired up at the prospect of turning the state red in 2012," said Republican Governors Association Executive Director Phil Cox. "John Lynch's decision to forego a re-election bid increases the GOP's chances of picking up the governorship and puts the Democrats further on their heels nationally in 2012."

In 2011/12, Republicans are defending just five seats (Indiana, Mississippi, Louisiana, North Dakota and Utah). Of those five, the only realistic pickup opportunity for Democrats exists in Indiana, where John Gregg and GOP Rep. Mike Pence are on a general election collision course. Democratic strategists like the moderate Gregg, but given the state's GOP leanings, a Pence loss would be a considerable upset.

In 2011, the only competitive race appears to be in West Virginia, where acting Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin is trying to hold off a late push by Republican businessman Bill Maloney. Even if Tomblin wins, national Democrats will have to defend him again at the polls next year, because 2011 is a special election in West Virginia.

Among the nine seats Democrats are trying to hold, there are several pickup opportunities for the GOP. In North Carolina, polling shows Gov. Bev Perdue to be very vulnerable, and Republicans expect to land a strong recruit -- former Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory -- to challenge her. In Montana, Democratic Gov. Brian Schweitzer is term-limited, and the open seat race should be one of 2012's most competitive.

In Washington state, Democratic Rep. Jay Inslee is trying to hold the seat being vacated by retiring Gov. Chris Gregoire. While Inslee's the early favorite, the task ahead of him is no small feat: defeating popular Republican Attorney General Rob McKenna, whose crossover appeal buoyed him to a strong showing during his 2008 reelection, where he even outpaced President Obama in the blue state.

Democratic Governors Association chairman Martin O'Malley says that while the initial phase of the 2012 presidential race is shaping up as a referendum on President Obama's record, the contest will eventually evolve into a choice between two alternatives.

"I think you're right, for a time, that a reelection is a referendum about the incumbent," said the Maryland governor at a Christian Science Monitor breakfast Thursday morning. "Until that time when people actually focus on making a decision between the two alternatives, and when that happens, I believe the president will be victorious," he added.

O'Malley presented a well-worn Democratic argument: that the election will ultimately be a choice between the president and a GOP nominee who is committed to continuing the damaging policies of the previous administration.

"They are pretty much sticking with the sort of trickle down George Bush mode, somewhat warmed over, and maybe with some nuanced changes about getting out of a war that they never opposed or spoke up against our getting into," he said of the Republicans.

O'Malley described the current GOP frontrunner, Texas Gov. Rick Perry as an "affable, friendly, pleasant man," and said he admired Perry's "willingness to stand up to the immigrant bashers and the thinly veiled-racism and scapegoating that is so rampant in their party." Perry has been facing criticism from some on the right who perceive his position on border security as too moderate.

O'Malley took a slight dig at Perry as well.

"He seceded from the National Governors Association," he said.

Rep. Ron Kind, D-Wis., will not run for retiring Democratic Sen. Herb Kohl's seat, removing a potential roadblock in the path of Democratic Rep. Tammy Baldwin.

"I have been urged by many across Wisconsin to run for Senate. I thank them sincerely for their steadfast support and their trust in my commitment to put solving peoples' problems first and foremost," Kind said in a statement Thursday. "But that commitment has led me to this conclusion: Now is not my time to run for the U.S. Senate."

He added: "At this time a divisive primary contest will not serve the interests of the state or the real needs of families."

Kind's decision was first reported by Politico.

The 3rd District moderate Democrat's announcement is not surprising. There's another reason for Kind to stay put: his Western Wisconsin district stands to be shored up under a GOP redistricting plan.

It's all good news for Baldwin, whose path to the nomination appears at this early stage to be relatively unobstructed. That could change if former Rep. Steve Kagen enters the Democratic race. The GOP race, meanwhile, already includes former Rep. Mark Neumann, while former Gov. Tommy Thompson is expected to enter the contest shortly. Allies of the two have already been going after each other.

The future of President Obama's jobs proposal in Congress remains questionable, according to this week's National Journal Congressional Insiders Poll. Members of Congress surveyed from each party are coalescing around individual components of the package, but with little overlap across the aisle.

Updated 11:16 a.m.

New Hampshire Gov. John Lynch (D) will not seek a record fifth term, he announced Thursday morning , setting the stage for another toss-up governor's race in 2012.

"Democracy demands periodic change, to refresh and revive itself," Lynch said at a press conference in Manchester. "Democracy needs new leaders and new ideas."

"I think it's time for the next generation of leadership in New Hampshire," he added.

Lynch's decision was first reported by WMUR's James Pindell and NHJournal.com, a Granite State political website. Lynch would have been in strong position had he decided to run; the latest Granite State Poll, conducted for WMUR by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, pegged his job approval rating at 56 percent, while just 21 percent disapproved (Though that survey, conducted among 512 New Hampshire adults between April 18-28, is a bit dated).

Several Republicans have been positioning themselves as potential challengers in recent months, including 2010 Senate candidate Ovide Lamontagne and social conservative activist Kevin Smith. Those two hail from the right side of the Republican coalition within the state, while other more moderate candidates like former state Sen. Bruce Keough, former state Health and Human Services Commissioner John Stephen and Manchester Mayor Ted Gatsas are generating buzz.

Gatsas told WMUR earlier this year he will run for re-election and will not seek the governorship.

The special-election upset in NY-09 was the target of late-night jokes on Wednesday.

"Political pundits say that more than anything the vote was an anti-Obama vote," "The Tonight Show" host Jay Leno said. "But did you hear the White House spin? They said at least President Obama created one new job."

Don't miss today's Must See Moment: At 0:40 watch winner Bob Turner's never-before-seen political ad highlighting his, um, assets.

Take our late-night poll after the jump...

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. New Hampshire Gov. John Lynch may be announcing his retirement today, EMILY's List backs Elizabeth Warren, Perry starts engaging with Bachmann more and Huntsman says his Cobain comment "just sort of came" to him. Here's today's rundown:

9) "That just sort of came to me. You can't say 'no apologies' on the 20th anniversary and not have Kurt Cobain come to mind" -- Jon Huntsman, explaining his remarks at a CNN/Tea Party Express debate earlier this week.

8) A Chicago judge was wondering why Rep. Joe Walsh, R-Ill., wasn't at a hearing involving a dispute over child support Wednesday. "He's no different than anyone else," the judge said.

7) Despite receiving overwhelmingly positive marks for his handling of Tropical Storm Irene, Connecticut Gov. Dan Malloy remains underwater in a new Quinnipiac University poll released early Thursday. Just 41 percent of Nutmeg State voters approve of the job Malloy is doing, while 48 percent disapprove. "Malloy might be envious of New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who apparently did get an Irene bounce," writes Quinnipiac Poll director Doug Schwartz.

6) Utah state Sen. Dan Liljenquist held his first town hall meeting earlier this week and plans to hold about 10 similar town hall gatherings between now and November, when he'll make up his mind whether to challenge Sen. Orrin Hatch in the GOP primary, the Salt Lake Tribune reports.

The National Republican Congressional Committee is launching a TV ad campaign against Rep. Dennis Cardoza, D-Calif., hitting the Blue Dog Democrat over the growing national debt and pressuring him to support a balanced budget amendment.

The three-week cable TV buy starts today, claiming that Cardoza, who co-chairs the Blue Dog coalition of fiscally conservative Democrats, is "wast[ing] billions."

"This is $10,000. Now, $100 million. How about a trillion? And America's national debt - $14 trillion," says the announcer.

"Because Congressmen like Dennis Cardoza waste billions. We can make them stop with a Balanced Budget Amendment prohibiting Congress from spending more than it takes i. Tell Cardoza to support the Balanced Budget Amendment before it's too late."

Cardoza has been subject of retirement rumors, and in August, didn't deny to the Modesto Bee that he may be stepping down. California's redistricting map splintered his district, and one of his remaining options is to run against his close friend Rep. Jim Costa, D-Calif. Another option would be for him to run against freshman Rep. Jeff Denham, R-Calif, but in a more conservative district than his current one.

The Virginia Senate race remains a dead heat between former GOP Sen. George Allen and former Democratic National Committee Chairman Tim Kaine: Allen leads Kaine by just one point, 45 percent to 44 percent, according to a new Quinnipiac University survey released early Thursday.

The last survey, taken in late June, showed the race in virtually the same shape: Kaine held a statistically insignificant one-point lead over Allen, 43 percent to 42 percent, in that poll.

The race has been tight ever since Kaine entered the contest and is expected to be one of the 2012's most competitive contests. A Washington Post poll conducted in late April and early May showed Kaine leading Allen 47 - 44 percent.

While both candidates face contested primary fields, neither is expected to encounter serious competition for the nomination of their respective party.

The Quinnipiac poll was conducted Sept. 7-12, surveying 1,368 registered voters. The margin of error is +/- 2.7 percent.

Both Rick Perry and Mitt Romney run neck-and-neck with a weakened President Obama in the crucial battleground state of Virginia, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll that shows that, at least in this southern state, neither GOP candidate can claim to be demonstrably better equipped to defeat Obama at this stage of the campaign.

Obama leads Perry, 44 percent to 42 percent, while Romney edges ahead of Obama by that very same margin.

"At this point Romney and Perry both are in a horse race against President Barack Obama, challenging Romney's 'electability' argument," said Quinnipiac University Polling Institute assistant director Peter Brown.

Romney does slightly better than Perry among independents, leading Obama by nine among that group. Perry and Obama split the independent vote down the middle.

Perry does lead Romney in the state's Republican primary, according to the poll, 25 percent to 19 percent. No other candidate earns even double-digit support.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney leads a new Field Poll of Republicans in delegate-rich California, but Texas Gov. Rick Perry also attracts significant support, claiming a close second place.

Romney leads Perry 28 percent to 20 percent in the survey that was conducted over the first two weeks in September, which included a debate in Simi Valley, Calif., at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library.

No other candidate placed in double-digits. Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin earned eight percent, while Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich were at seven percent. Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., was sixth, at seven percent.

Perry's entrance into the race has clearly compromised Romney's frontrunner status in the Golden State. In June, two months before Perry announced his candidacy, Romney was eighteen points clear of the field, at 30 percent, with Palin a distant second.

When Perry announced he would run for president, he gave an interview to Time's Mark Halperin, in which the brash Texas governor said he would compete in California.

Rep.-elect Bob Turner has a colorful resume: as a television syndication executive, he helped advance the careers of talk show hosts Jerry Springer and Sally Jesse Raphael. Less known was the fact that he helped launch conservative talker Rush Limbaugh's television career, as well.

Limbaugh, who had kept uncharacteristically silent about the New York special election on his show until after the election, acknowledged his friendship with Turner on the show Wednesday - and his deep rooting interest in the race.

"It was Bob Turner who took the flier. And it was then that Roger Ailes and I teamed up and then partnered with Bob Turner," said Limbaugh. "I kept waiting for Democrat opposition research to discover this and start plastering it all over the place and I didn't see that."

The outside Democratic groups involved in the race, including the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, didn't mention the Turner-Limbaugh connection, in television ads or direct mail. A DCCC spokesman said there were more potent lines of attack to use against Turner, without going after Limbaugh.

But Limbaugh claims Democrats avoided invoking his connection to Turner because an outside Democratic group conducted polling, and found he was popular in the working-class, ethnic Queens and Brooklyn district.

"The Democrats did opposition research polling in the district and they found out to their shock that I'm very popular in this district. I have a very supportive audience in this district, which stunned them. It's Orthodox, it's Israel, blue-collar, it's made up of Democrats that are your father and grandfather's Democrats, not this current crop of leftist Marxist socialists or what have you," Limbaugh said. "So that's why they tried to tar Turner with Jerry Springer. But it wasn't gonna work no matter what they tried because this was about Obama."

A plurality of Americans want their member of Congress to vote for a jobs bill similar to the one President Obama proposed in a speech to a joint session of Congress last week, according to a new Gallup poll released late Wednesday.

Forty-five percent of respondents told Gallup they want their member of Congress to vote for the plan, while 32 percent want their member to vote against it. Democrats want their members to vote for it by a 70-to-9 margin. Republicans are largely against it, 19 percent to 60 percent. Among independents, a plurality wants their member to vote for the plan, 44 percent to 32 percent, but 24 percent had no opinion.

Gallup's interviewers did not provide any information about the plan to respondents, and, according to the poll, not many respondents are that familiar with the plan's contents. Just 22 percent said they were following the news about Obama's jobs bill "very closely," while 34 percent said they were following it "somewhat closely." A combined 43 percent said they were not following news about the plan too closely or at all.

But while Americans are leaning toward supporting the legislation, they are not hopeful about its effects on the overall unemployment problem in the country. A Bloomberg News poll released earlier Wednesday that described some elements of the plan to its respondents showed that 51 percent of Americans believe the plan will not help lower the unemployment rate; only 40 percent think that it will.

The Gallup poll was conducted Sept. 12-13, surveying 1,010 adults. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percent.

This morning, Democratic National Committee chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz refused to draw any broader conclusions about the New York special election loss - not even conceding that Jewish dissatisfaction with President Obama's policies toward Israel played a role.

"This president, because of his incredibly strong record on Israel, because of the focus and the dramatic contrast between the extreme Tea Party Republican candidates, who are wrong on every issue that matters to the Jewish community ... he and Democrats up and down the ballot will receive an overwhelming majority of the Jewish vote once again," Wasserman Schultz said on a conference call with reporters this morning.

But that's not what one of her Jewish Democratic colleagues believes. New York Rep. Eliot Engel, who represents a nearby New York City district, said the election result should be a "big alarm" to Democrats over the blow-back regarding Obama's Middle East policy.

"I think the rhetoric at times frightens peoples. Frankly I see it in my own district. People come up to me who have concerns about what's being said vis-a-vis Israel," Engel said. Engel represents a Bronx district that gave Obama 72 percent of the vote in 2008.

"The rhetoric about the '67 lines wasn't helpful. I think the talk about settlement expansion, and emphasizing that wasn't helpful," said Engel.

Think of the Congressional seats held by the president's party as an island, and the president's approval rating as the water that surrounds that island. As his approval rating declines -- as the water recedes -- more of his party's seats are exposed.

In 2010, the Democratic House losses were overwhelmingly concentrated in seats where President Obama won less than 55 percent of the vote in 2008 -- the places where his support was most marginal to begin with. As Obama's approval eroded during his first two years, House Democrats who had succeeded in 2008 in marginal or Republican-leaning districts could not survive the receding tide. Republicans in 2010 captured 22 of the 35 Democratic-held House seats that Obama won with less than 55 percent of the vote in 2008 and fully 36 of the 48 seats House Democrats had won in districts that voted for Republican nominee John McCain.

Obama's approval rating is even lower today than it was at the time of the 2010 election. That suggests that if Obama's support remains deeply depressed, the "water line" of Democratic House seats in danger in 2012 would extend more deeply into Democratic territory and include more seats that provided Obama a margin even greater than 55 percent last time. The New York-9 district, which Obama carried with 55.3 percent of the vote last time, may be a leading indicator of that risk. In 2010, Republicans captured only eight of 173 Democratic-held seats in which Obama's 2008 margin of victory exceeded his showing in the New York district. The magnitude of the GOP victory there on Tuesday suggests that many more of those seats could be at risk next year -- unless Obama finds a way to revive his fortunes.

Tuesday's results aren't prophecy: they don't guarantee Democrats will lose seats like that next year, or that Obama can't recover some of the support he has lost since 2008. But the New York results do foreshadow the risk that even House Democrats who once thought themselves safely on dry land could face if he does not.

Republican Mark Amodei's decisive victory in NV-02 has Republicans crowing today about an explicit repudiation of President Obama and congressional Democrats. But to hear Democrats tell it, the party faced an uphill climb in a race in which full-fledged outside support was never activated, and the fact that Republican allies spent six figures to defend a GOP-held seat is a micro-victory in itself.

So what of it? Should the outcome be interpreted as a harbinger of looming Democratic woes in the Silver State? Or shall we simply regard the results as wholly unique? The truth is somewhere in between. Keep the following in mind when analyzing Tuesday's results:

Washoed Away: While the 2nd District as a whole leans Republican, there are pockets that are important battlegrounds for Democrats running statewide. Take Washoe County (Reno), for example, where Republican voters only narrowly outnumber Democrats according to the most recent tally.

Amodei defeated Democrat Kate Marshall by almost ten points in Washoe County. That's not good news for Democrats. Indeed, turnout was much lower in the county (just 33 percent) than it will be next year (it was 78 percent in 2008 and 62 percent in 2010). And Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's political machine was not activated, nor were many outside Democratic resources brought to bear. Still, as Reid won by five points in Washoe in 2010, and Obama won there by 13 in 2008, a ten point Marshall loss doesn't bode well for Democrats.

A United Airlines flight carrying Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg from Dulles International Airport to San Francisco was delayed this afternoon after the pilot noticed a problem with the aircraft's engine as the flight prepared to take off.

Supreme Court spokeswoman Patricia McCabe Estrada said Ginsburg was uninjured. Estrada said that Ginsburg was on her way to San Francisco for an event at Hastings College of Law on Thursday.

"The pilot noticed something wrong with the engines and decided to evacuate the plane," Kimberly Gibbs, a spokeswoman for the Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority, said. According to Gibbs, the emergency slides were deployed and passengers were evacuated and transported back to the terminal.

Gibbs said one person was taken to the hospital with a minor injury. Two others reported minor injuries but refused to be transported to the hospital.

United Airlines spokesperson Charlie Hobart confirmed that the flight had been delayed and said that the situation was under investigation. He said that passengers are being "re-accommodated" on a later flight.

The flight, United Airlines #586, was scheduled to depart from Dulles International Airport at 12:25 p.m. and land at San Francisco Airport at 6:06 p.m. EST.

Sen. Scott Brown's, R-Mass., fundraising team has its anti-Elizabeth Warren pitch: outside groups sympathetic to Democrats can close the gap on Brown's financial advantage "in a matter of months."

In a memo circulated Wednesday morning to the Bay State Republican's finance committee, Brown's fundraising chief, John Cook, used Warren's announcement of her candidacy as the call to action to help Brown build his warchest, which stood at $9.6 million at the end of June.

"As many of you have heard, the long awaited Democratic 'front runner' opponent to Scott Brown announced her entrance into the Senate race today," Cook said in the email. "Needless to say, this elevates the profile of this race and ensures that it will be one of the most expensive and nationally covered elections in the country."

Cook then describes Warren as "a Liberal Harvard Law Professor from Oklahoma ... the clear favorite of Democratic party insiders ... President Obama's failed nominee for the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau."

Cook warned that the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee had relocated a staffer to Massachusetts to help raise money and that outside groups were "preparing to pour money into this race in an effort to unseat Senator Brown."

"It's critical that we keep the fundraising momentum strong in the coming months because - while we have a good head start - the Democrats (via outside fundraising entities like Unions and DC groups like EMILY's List) have the resources to catch up in a matter of months," Cook said. "This is why we need your help now."

Brown, of course, expects to raise major cash from outside groups as well, including off Warren's role in designing the CFPB and regulating Wall Street.

Some good news for Indiana Treasurer Richard Mourdock: Republican state Sen. Mike Delph isn't going to make a U.S. Senate bid.

"After much prayer and family consultation in addition to discussions with friends and supporters here in Indiana and in Washington, DC, I have determined that my duty is here in Indiana raising my family and serving my current constituents," Delph said in a statement posted on his blog Wednesday. Delph is also ruling out a run in the 5th District, something he was also considering.

Delph had been flirting with a run throughout the summer. Had Delph opted to run, the conservative, anti-Sen. Dick Lugar, R-Ind., vote would have been at serious risk of being splintered.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is out with a memo explaining just what happened in New York's 9th Congressional District, and why it won't impact their chances to win back the House next year:

We are not going to sugar coat it, this was a tough loss. Over the next few days, you will hear a lot of misinterpretations from Republicans and casual House observers about why Democrats lost the NY-09 Special Election and what it means.

Do not let the moment define the long-term: Democrats stole a Republican seat in upstate New York and now they have stolen one from us. This was one in a series of battles, not the end of the war. We are singularly focused on winning a Democratic majority in the House by winning 25 seats - less than half the average number of seats that flipped in each of the past three cycles. Our goal is to win the House by putting a broad array of seats from around the country into play. NY-09 was never a part of the DCCC's strategic plan to win the House in 2012 because the district will likely be eliminated in New York's congressional redistricting.

The rest of the memo continues after the jump.

CORRECTION: The previous version of this post incorrectly stated the name of the 6th District representative. It is Bill Johnson.

Rep. Dennis Kucinich, D-Ohio, was openly contemplating what few members before him have accomplished: Running for a seat in Congress from another state. Kucinich, whose district was rumored to be a target of Ohio Republicans' redistricting plans, has traveled to Washington State several times in the past few months as he eyes a new option.

But Kucinich looks likely to hold off abandoning his home state. A new proposal from Ohio Republicans does in fact draw him into a district with Rep. Marcy Kaptur, but the news isn't so bad for the former mayor of Cleveland. The newly drawn 9th District, in which President Obama scored nearly two-thirds of the vote, would include about 60 percent of the Cleveland media market and only 40 percent of the Toledo market. That means Kucinich may have a leg up on Kaptur, whose base is in Toledo.

"It is an amazing turn of events that the legislature decided not to dismantle the district I represent," Kucinich said in a statement last night. "I have been praying that I could continue to serve my Cleveland-area constituency and it looks like I have a chance. That is all I could have hoped for."

Buckeye State legislators pleased Republican operatives watching the redistricting process by drawing a map many believe will lock in a 12 to four Republican advantage in the state's Congressional delegation for a decade to come. Republicans won back five Democratic-held seats in 2010, and the new map goes a long way toward shoring up potentially vulnerable members like Reps. Bill Johnson, Pat Tiberi and Steve Stivers.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Bad news for Democrats, as Republicans sweep two House elections, including one in New York City - as a new Bloomberg poll shows most voters are skeptical about Obama's jobs plan.. Linda McMahon is set to launch her Senate bid on Tuesday while Elizabeth Warren is up early to make her campaign official in the Bay State. And Dennis Kucinich is staying put in Ohio, but maybe not for long. Here's today's rundown:

10) The Republican National Committee outraised the Democratic National Committee $8.17 million to $5.5 million in August, registering what RNC officials say is the committee's best August ever for a non-election year.

9) Rep. Dennis Kucinich, D-Ohio, won't be moving out west after all. Kucinich issued a celebratory release Tuesday declaring that Ohio's proposed new map gives him a chance to retain his seat. But he could end up facing a showdown against Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur.

8) New York and Nevada weren't the only places holding elections Tuesday. Baltimore Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake won the Democratic primary, securing the nomination for a full four-year term in the office to which she ascended last year, the Baltimore Sun reports.

7) Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell is one of the nation's most popular governors, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll released early Wednesday that shows the Republican with a sky-high 61-percent approval rating. Just 21 percent of voters disapprove of the job McDonnell is doing. The most recent Quinnipiac poll in New York showed Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo with a similar, 62 percent approval rating.

The late-night shows Tuesday took their turns at spoofing the CNN-Tea Party GOP presidential debate held this week.

Stephen Colbert suggests a running mate: the Grim Reaper (he's bone white and has almost as many executions under his belt as Rick Perry.) And "The Tonight Show" presents a mock Visa advertisement, poking fun at Perry's defense of his decision to mandate HPV vaccines in Texas. The ad says: "If you're gonna buy Rick Perry's influence, you're gonna need more than $5,000. You're going to need your Visa card."

Fast-forward to today's Must See Moment at 1:59 where former Vice President Dick Cheney provides the "Unintentional Joke of the Day" during his appearance on "The View."

Take our late-night poll after the jump...

If there was any question about the breadth and magnitude of the plunge in President Obama's job-approval rating this summer, consider this new data point: For the first time, fewer than half of voters in deep-blue California approve of the job Obama is doing, according to a new Field Poll released early Wednesday.

Just 46 percent of voters approve of the job Obama is doing, while 44 percent disapprove. That is eight points lower than the previous Field Poll, conducted in June.

Obama has lost ground among all groups. His approval rating is 10 points lower among Democrats, 2 points lower among Republicans, and a whopping 13 points lower among independents, down to 45 percent among that key group.

Obama has lost 10 percent of men and 6 percent of women. His approval rating is nine points lower among white voters and three points down among Hispanics. It dropped 6 points among voters aged 18-29, 10 points among voters in their 30s, 7 points among voters in their 40s, 8 points among voters aged 50-64, and 10 points among voters over 65.

California voters are increasingly pessimistic about the direction of the country. Just 21 percent of voters -- and 16 percent of independents -- think the country is on the right track.

The GOP went two for two in special elections Tuesday, as Republican Mark Amodei easily defeated Democrat Kate Marshall in Nevada's 2nd Congressional District special election. With 44 percent of precincts reporting, the AP has called the race for Amodei, who leads Marshall 57 percent to 37 percent.

Headed into Tuesday, Amodei was widely expected to win. All but his final margin of victory was in doubt after two weeks of early voting in which all signs pointed to a big Republican surge. Amodei's got plenty of help from his friends across the country: the National Republican Congressional Committee spent about $600,000 on behalf while American Crossroads, the independent expenditure group founded by GOP strategists Ed Gillespie and Karl Rove, poured in another $250,000. The national Democratic party apparatus, meanwhile, largely stood on the sidelines in the Nevada race.

The 2nd District leans Republican; GOP voters outnumber Democrats by about 30,000, according to the most recent tally. But in the 2008 presidential race, the district was the closest-fought in the nation: Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., defeated then-Sen. Obama by just 89 votes.

In the House, Amodei, a former state senator and Nevada Republican Party chairman, will succeed Republican Dean Heller. Heller was appointed to the Senate earlier this year following the resignation of John Ensign, who quit under an ethical cloud after admitting to an extramarital affair.

"I congratulate Congressman-elect Mark Amodei on his major victory tonight in Nevada's 2nd District," said Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus. "This election was undoubtedly a referendum on the failed policies of President Obama and Congressional Democrats. Just days after the President's address to Congress, voters went to the polls and overwhelmingly rejected his recently announced Stimulus II."

"On behalf of the DCCC, I want to thank Kate Marshall for her tremendous effort and first-rate campaign," said Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Steve Israel. "Kate is a fiscally responsible leader, dedicated to taking an independent-minded approach to problem solving and committed to creating jobs and protecting the middle class."

HOWARD BEACH, N.Y. -- Republican Bob Turner won a special election Tuesday in a New York City congressional district that has been held by Democrats for nearly a century -- an upset that delivers a stinging rebuke to President Obama and his party.

Just before midnight, the Associated Press called the race for Turner, a cable television executive with no prior political experience. He and his supporters had billed the contest against Democrat David Weprin as a referendum on Obama.

(RELATED: Voters Taking Frustrations Out Against Democrats)

"I am the messenger," Turner said as he claimed his victory. "This message . . . will reverberate into 2012."

From National Journal:


'Animal House' of Representatives? Fraternities and Congress


Is Perry Making Romney a Better Candidate?


GRAPHIC: Florida's Political Corridor

Obama Gets Specific in His Jobs Bill

Turner's stunning win in New York's 9th Congressional District is an ominous sign for the president. It came on the same day that the president's party suffered a rout in another special congressional election in Nevada, and in a district where Democrats hold a 3-1 registration edge. Obama won NY09 by an 11-point margin in 2008 but his weak poll numbers there now appear to have dragged down his party's nominee. Turner becomes the first Republican to hold the Queens and Brooklyn-area seat since 1923.

"We didn't have union organizers, financial resources or many other things our opponent was able to put into the field, but we couldn't beat the enthusiasm and spirit from our volunteers, who had never been involved in the political process before," Turner said to more than 300 supporters packed into the ballroom of an Italian restaurant here as favorable results poured in. "I'm more than thrilled to help lead the charge."

After scoring a string of special congressional election victories, Democrats lost two in one day.

A day after receiving Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal's support, Texas Gov. Rick Perry on Tuesday announced the endorsement of another rising gubernatorial star: Nevada Gov. Brian Sandoval.

It's the latest strike in a recent war of endorsements between Perry and chief rival Mitt Romney as each man seeks to prove he is the party's strongest candidate. On Monday, Romney announced he received the endorsement of former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, who earlier this year was considered Romney's main competition for the nomination.

Nevada is ostensibly Romney's territory, given his overwhelming win there in 2008. But the state hasn't adapted to being one of four states to hold early nominating contests, and hasn't attracted the parade of candidates other early states have.

Sandoval is one of a trio - along with New Mexico Gov. Susana Martinez and Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., - of prominent Hispanic Republican leaders elected last year, a sign many party officials said shows the GOP has a strong future with Latino voters despite struggling to attract their support now. He won by a double-digit margin last year despite the party's other statewide nominee, Sharron Angle's, failure to dislodge Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.

In a statement, Sandoval praised Perry for "understanding the role of government and our economy."

With polls set to close in just a few hours in New York's 9th Congressional District, Democrat David Weprin is getting an endorsement from a figure well-known to voters in the area.

But it's one he'd probably just as soon do without.

Disgraced former Rep. Anthony Weiner, whose resignation from Congress earlier this year triggered the special election that Weprin is trying to win, had some words of encouragement for the Democrat, who according to the most recent polling, is it serious risk of losing to Republican Bob Turner.

"I am confident he'd make an excellent congressman," Weiner said of Weprin, after voting earlier today, according to the New York Post.

When asked whether it was his fault if the GOP nets the seat, Weiner responded, "If you made a list of 10 fervent defenders of Democratic ideals, I would be on it." Weiner resigned his seat in June after admitting to sending lewd photos over his Twitter account.

The North Carolina state Senate voted to bring an amendment banning same-sex marriage before voters Tuesday, one day after the legislature's lower chamber did the same. The governor does not have a say in the matter as the issue now goes directly to the voters on May 8, the same day as the state's primaries.

A drawn-out Republican presidential primary could help drive out conservative votes at a time when there are no statewide Democratic primaries at the top of the ballot. At the same time, if the Republicans settle on a candidate earlier and former Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory clears the gubernatorial field if and when he declares his candidacy, then turnout could be lower.

(RELATED: Where is Same-Sex Marriage Legal?)

Given that President Obama and Gov. Bev Perdue do not have primary challengers and are unlikely to face any, the Democratic base will be more inclined to stay away from the ballot box unless there are notable local races. Perdue is considered by many observers to be the most vulnerable incumbent governor in the 2012 cycle.

Consumer advocate and Harvard Professor Elizabeth Warren will announce Wednesday she is running against Sen. Scott Brown, R-Mass., after a brief exploratory period, finally giving national Democrats their preferred candidate against a well-funded and popular incumbent.

Warren's announcement, first reported by Huffington Post and confirmed to Hotline On Call by a Warren adviser, ends a none-too-secret exploration of the race. Since leaving the White House in early August, Warren has traveled the Commonwealth meeting with prominent Democrats.

"The pressures on middle class families are worse than ever, but it is the big corporations that get their way in Washington," said Warren in a statement obtained by Hotline On Call. "I want to change that. I will work my heart out to earn the trust of the people of Massachusetts."

Progressives have openly encouraged Warren to run against Brown, the implication being that none of the current contenders in the field have a chance to beat Brown. Recent surveys have shown Brown leading Warren by wide margins, but Democrats believe that with President Obama atop the ballot, Warren will have the wind at her back.

Here's the latest sign of a tightening gubernatorial race in West Virginia with three weeks left until Election Day: acting Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin has released his first negative TV ad, "Greedy," painting his Republican opponent Bill Maloney as a carpetbagger who has used the state and left.

"Bill Maloney, born and raised in New York," says the ad's narrator. "Incorporated his West Virginia-based business in Delaware to avoid paying West Virginia-based taxes. Maloney then sold his company for millions, and allowed the headquarters -- and West Virginia jobs -- to be moved to Pennsylvania. Bill Maloney got his. Then took his millions and retired -- to a gated community in Georgia."

"Bill Maloney: just another greedy millionaire using West Virginia for personal gain," the ad concludes.

Though Tomblin has been attacked by Maloney, this marks the first time his campaign has responded with a negative ad of its own. An automated Democratic survey released last week showed a tightening race, and the Republicans Governors Association is going up Tuesday a with a new ad that hits Tomblin.

The dual carpetbagger/avoiding West Virginia taxes hit is reminiscent of attacks now-Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., used in his 2010 race against businessman John Raese, when the Democrat accused Raese of preferring his Florida mansion because he avoids paying West Virginia income taxes.

The Tomblin ad is on TV statewide beginning today. The election is October 4.

Check out the ad after the jump.

FOREST HILLS, N.Y. -- With less than seven hours to go until the polls close in the contentious NY-09 special election, allegations of dirty tricks between Democrat David Weprin and Republican Bob Turner are flying.

Weprin's campaign claimed Tuesday afternoon that Turner and his GOP allies sent a 3 a.m. text message asking voters to call Weprin's campaign headquarters to jam up his phone lines.

"It is outrageous that Bob Turner's allies would resort to jamming our phones in an effort to prevent our campaign from contacting voters and getting out the message about how radical Bob Turner really is," said Weprin spokeswoman Elizabeth Kerr. "Republicans participating in phone jamming in the past have landed in jail, and there must be a full investigation into the Republican phone jamming campaign."

Kerr is referencing a 2002 New Hampshire phone-jamming scheme which eventually resulted in the jailing of the then-executive director of the state GOP.

Turner's campaign immediately pushed back against the claims, saying the charges were a distraction from Weprin's missteps.

"Nonsense," said Turner spokesman Bill O'Reilly. "We are busy talking to voters. We have neither the interest nor the inclination to play grade school games. Mr. Weprin must have 25 phone banks working. This sounds more like an election day smoke screen for Weprin campaign mistakes."

In a new ad, the Republican Governors Association is doubling down on a tactic GOP businessman Bill Maloney has used against Democratic acting Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin, charging that the Democrat has used his standing to steer state money toward his family's business.

"Politicians in Charleston are in a race to help themselves," says the ad's narrator. "Since Earl Ray Tomblin's been in charge, the state dog track fund paid more than 2 million dollars to the family of Earl Ray Tomblin. With Tomblin in power, the legislature pushed through a law to divert more state money to the Tomblins. Earl Ray got his way. You got the bill."

Maloney released a TV ad in late August with the construct of Tomblin being interviewed for a job. "Directed $2.5 million in taxpayer money to your family's greyhound dog racing business?" the interviewer asks incredulously in the ad.

But he wasn't the first to criticize Tomblin on this issue.

State House Speaker Rick Thompson tried the same line of attack against Tomblin in the Democratic primary, but the frontrunner's standing wasn't damaged. A Thompson ad used almost identical language back in May: "Earl Ray Tomblin used his state Senate office for profit, steering over $2 million in taxpayer money to his family's greyhound breeding business. ... If only Tomblin did as well by the people of West Virginia as he does for his family."

As my colleague Dan Roem pointed out last week, the RGA has stopped running ads in the 2011 Kentucky gubernatorial race, where Democratic Gov. Steve Beshear is looking strong. And Republicans are heavy favorites in the other two 2011 gubernatorial races -- Louisiana and Mississippi. So West Virginia looks like the most worthwhile place for them to spend money this year.

The special election will take place October 4.

Check out the full ad after the jump.

On "The Daily Show" Monday, Jon Stewart suggested a few alternative names for President Obama's bill aimed at job-creation.

"That's all you got? The American Jobs Act? Was "Employment Ideas TBD' already taken?" Stewart asked. Watch to see the names he recommended that the president consider instead.

Fast forward to today's Must See Moment at 1:50 to watch the Tea Party dance party:

Take our late-night poll after the jump...

Rep. Gabby Giffords, D-Ariz., and her husband former astronaut Mark Kelly will be participating in the ABC special concerning her recovery, but an interview is not guaranteed.

"Given the nature of her injuries and recovery, the Congresswoman's exact participation can only be known as we move forward," an ABC spokesperson told us today.

ABC announced the November 15 special yesterday, but Giffords spokesperson Mark Kimble told the Tucson Sentinel that Giffords "has not decided if she's going to conduct an on-air interview."

An ABC spokesperson reaffirmed the special "will fully and respectfully document Giffords' remarkable road to recovery with her husband by her side and will include dozens of hours of video tape that document that journey."

If she is interviewed, it's almost certain Giffords will be asked whether she'll run for re-election. Agreeing to appear on ABC -- not coincidentally, the day before her book comes out -- may indicate Giffords has reached an answer.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Romney turns in another solid debate performance, while Perry stumbles a bit. Meanwhile, Inslee raises $500K in August, Feinstein says her campaign's finances may have been "wiped out" by a recently arrested treasurer and it's Election Day in Nevada and New York, where Republicans are hoping for a stunning sweep. Here's today's rundown:

7) On the same day ABC News announced Diane Sawyer would conduct a sit -down interview with Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, D-Ariz., and her husband, Mark Kelly, Giffords' spokesman told the Tucson Sentinel that Giffords "has not decided if she's going to conduct an on-camera interview." Spokesman Mark Kimble said Sawyer will interview Kelly on camera, and "sit down and talk with Mark and Gabby" off camera and that Giffords will make a decision on an interview "at some point, based on her progress" in rehabilitation.

6) Wisconsin's 2012 presidential primary would be pushed back from Feb. 28 to April 3, under a bill coming before the state Assembly later today.

5) Rep. Jay Inslee's, D-Wash., gubernatorial campaign raised over $500,000 in August. Meanwhile, Republican Attorney General Rob McKenna's burn rate from the first few months is higher.

4) The Los Angeles Times reports that Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., said her campaign may have been "wiped out" by a Democratic campaign treasurer who was arrested on federal fraud charges earlier this month.

FOREST HILLS, N.Y. -- President Obama won't officially be on the ballot in this special election in New York's 9th District, but he might as well be.

What was once presumed would be a sleepy affair between Democrat David Weprin and Republican Bob Turner in the race to succeed former Rep. Anthony Weiner, has become anything but, with Republicans rushing to frame the race as a referendum on the president and his agenda - specifically his administration's policies toward Israel.

Now Democrats, playing defense on that front and faced with a staggering economy and the president's free-falling approval ratings, find themselves with at serious risk of losing this seat, despite the district's three-to-one registration advantage.

Obama dragging Weprin down: Turner's campaign seized early on the Obama message on Israel, but it wasn't just his Middle East policies that made him a threat to Weprin. On the economy especially, Obama has become a liability, and in this district he once easily won, his unfavorable ratings in the final Siena poll were upside down at 54 percent. Weprin is hemorrhaging over a third of Democratic voters as well as losing independent voters more than two-to-one.

Weprin has awkwardly tried to distance himself from Obama, only telling the Jewish Weekly he'd "probably" endorse the president's reelection bid. On the final day of campaigning on Monday, Weprin was constantly flanked by a band of Democratic city councilmembers and legislators who stressed his experience in city and state government over any impact of the national party.

"This is about David Weprin and what he stands for, and quite frankly, it's what his opponent stands for and doesn't stand for," neighboring Rep. Joe Crowley, bristled on Monday when asked about Obama's negative impact in the race. Crowley is also the Queens County Democratic Chairman and whose district is widely expected to take in the 9th District in reapportionment

Weprin has turned to popular local officials to give him a boost - both overwhelmingly popular Gov. Andrew Cuomo and former President Bill Clinton cut robocalls for him in the final days. Turner, too, has enlisted Republicans with bipartisan appeal, such as former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, who also recorded a call and stumped with him in the race's final hours, too.

Candidates matter: Weprin, a state assemblyman, was picked as the Democratic standard-bearer to succeed the spotlight-seeking Weiner. The two men could not be more dissimilar -- while Weiner was constantly on television and engaged in social media (ultimately his downfall), Weprin is a softspoken man who comes from a storied Queens political family. But that doesn't mean he got their political charm.

Outside the Kew Gardens subway stop on Monday night during rush hour, Weprin approached some people and stuck out his hand for several individuals that breezed on by, and it was David "Bowzer" Bauman of the 1960's rock group Sha Na Na, a Queens native who has been stumping for Weprin, who was the most aggressive surrogate with the Weprin camp, often breaking out into song.

Weprin's been unassuming and often proved gaffe-prone throughout the election - misstating the size of the national debt by $10 trillion in an editorial board meeting and ungracefully bowing out of a debate and blaming it on Hurricane Irene, despite the storm largely sparing the area.

Weprin and Democrats have attempted to attack Turner over the GOP budget proposal that would revamp Medicare, but that appears to have fallen short, despite Weprin's heavy campaigning in senior centers and his focus on the issue during the final day of campaigning.

A majority of Americans think the Social Security system has serious problems and requires major changes, but seniors overwhelmingly oppose Texas Gov. Rick Perry's description of the system as a "monstrous lie" and a failure, according to a new CNN/ORC International poll released early Tuesday.

Perry's opinions on Social Security, articulated most extensively in his 2010 book "Fed Up," have become a flash point in his campaign for the Republican nomination, and Democrats are likely to pounce on those positions should Perry advance to the general election against President Obama.

Americans agree with Perry, however, that the system has major problems. Only four percent of Americans don't believe the current system needs to be changed, while 28 percent believe the system requires minor changes. A majority, 55 percent, believes the system has serious problems that require major changes, and 12 percent think the system's problems are so bad that Social Security should be replaced.

Among Republicans, 74 percent believe the system requires major changes or should be replaced. Americans aged 65 and older are split: 51 percent believe Social Security shouldn't be changed or only requires minor changes, while 48 percent want major changes or to replace the system.

While Americans -- and Republicans, in particular -- are open to major changes to Social Security, they reject Perry's rhetoric that the system is a "monstrous lie" and a "failure." Only 27 percent of Americans think that accurately describes the Social Security system, while 72 percent believe that it doesn't. The poll, notably, did not identify Perry as the author of that statement.

Throughout the evening, National Journal's editors will use this space to offer real-time analysis of the Republican presidential debate co-sponsored by CNN and the Tea Party Express. Eight candidates are squaring off in Tampa, Fla., site of the 2012 Republican National Convention.

10:04 Sean Sullivan: Romney was on point tonight, with sharpened attacks against Perry. Bachmann found a way to insert herself into the debate by also attacking Perry. Sensing a pattern here? Perry had to play a lot of defense tonight, but didn't always shine. He'll need to hone his skills pushing back against criticism on the HPV vaccine mandate and immigration, among other things. Welcome to the view from the top, where you can see everyone climbing up after you.

9:38 Sean Sullivan: Huntsman had a chance to engage with Perry on a serious issue: immigration. He blows it with an out-of-nowhere "treasonous" comment. Huntsman is supposed to be convincing voters why he deserves to be at the same table as Romney and Perry. But he just demonstrated why he's not there.

9:34 Kathy Kiely: The American way is to have people come into this country with a little bit of money in their pockets, says Bachmann on immigration. So much for Lady Liberty's "huddled masses yearning to breathe free." This kind of line may work for tonight's audience, but in November?

9:27 Ron Brownstein: It was telling that Romney remained silent in the dust up over Perry's HPV vaccine executive order; because of his own Massachusetts mandate on health care he lacks standing to attack perry over his mandate. Romney was the obvious beneficiary of the attacks on Perry from Bachmann and Santorum who have the conservative credentials to press that case. Yet Bachmann's later denunciation of Romney's insurance mandate shows that he can never breathe easy when the debate circles around these questions.

9:26 Tim Alberta: After taking a drubbing over the HPV vaccine mandate, Perry looked downright relieved to see Romney put on the defensive over his Massachusetts health care plan. But Romney dismissed the issue with relative ease, proving that after many months on the trail, practice makes perfect. Perry, like most politicians, appears much more comfortable playing offense than defense -- but he must become an effective two-way player to win the nomination. As the old sports adage goes, "offense wins games, but defense wins championships."

9:15 Sean Sullivan: An hour in, and Bachmann finally checks in, blasting Perry over the HPV vaccine mandate order. She clearly came prepared ready to engage him on the issue. Perry's response - you think I can be bought off for $5K? - is less than satisfactory. Romney's not involved in this exchange, and may be the big winner of the whole bit.

9:06 Ron Brownstein: As in his first debate, Rick Perry has been strongest when he's been able to tee up ringing affirmations of conservative principles -- like a tennis player who delivers a booming shot when he can run around to his forehand. But also as in his first debate, Perry has seemed less steady elsewhere on the court. His answer on Social Security opened up more questions rather than closing off the issue, as his USA Today op-ed attempted to do. And his overstatement on the Obama stimulus -- arguing that it did not create a single job -- showed his tendency toward unequivocal declarations that inspire the GOP base but may ultimately strike some swing voters as excessive or simplistic-sort of like a forehand that sails past the baseline.

Updated at 9:24 p.m.

Even as she passed on an opportunity earlier this month to move Arizona's presidential primary up to the end of January, Republican Gov. Jan Brewer on Monday said the state would hold its GOP primary on Feb. 28 2012, a date that would make it among the earliest on the campaign calendar and would put the state in violation of national party rules.

In a statement, the governor said the move would ensure Arizona would "be a player" during the GOP primary.

"Over the next 14 months, the candidates would be wise to meet with our voters and become familiar with our issues," said Brewer. "Many of these issues - whether illegal immigration, the housing crisis or Medicaid reform - have national implications."

The decision comes 10 days after Brewer, who had been mulling a move all the way up to Jan. 31, announced the state had preliminarily been awarded a Republican presidential debate. Even so, Brewer said at the time that she was keeping her options open.

"Just as important as what I'm announcing today is what I'm not announcing: a formal date for Arizona's Presidential Preference Election," she said on Sept. 2.

Holding the GOP contest on Feb. 28 would put Arizona in violation of the party's rules, which say that only four states - Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada - can hold their primaries before March 6.

"The party rules are clear; states in violation will lose 50 percent of their delegates. By going before the March deadline, a state will lose 50 percent of its delegates to the national convention," said RNC spokeswoman Kirsten Kukowski.

Arizona's decision could place added pressure on two other states, Florida and Michigan, which are also trying to expedite their primaries. Both states have to make a decision by Oct. 1.

FOREST HILLS, N.Y. -- On the final day of campaigning before Tuesday's contentious special congressional election here, both Democrat David Weprin and Republican Bob Turner urged voters to send a message that they say will resonate far beyond New York's 9th Congressional District.

At an afternoon press conference with former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, Turner reiterated what has become his chief selling point, arguing that an upset win by him in this liberal Queens- and Brooklyn-based district will send a shockwave through the national political landscape and send the White House a message on Israel.

Weprin repeated his campaign mantra: He's the candidate to protect Social Security and Medicare. He also rallied his volunteers at his campaign headquarters, as Democrats hoped that an aggressive get-out-the-vote operation can save their candidate, trailing in the final polls in the race.

(RELATED: Previewing the Nevada Special Election)

Delayed for more than an hour by traffic, Giuliani told reporters outside the Forest Hills Railroad Station that Turner's unlikely surge is being fueled by anger against President Obama - both on Israel and the economy.

A proposed Congressional map from Ohio Republicans could dwindle down the number of Democrats in the House delegation to four.

The map includes a new and likely Democratic Franklin County district as part of an overall plan that would shore up Republican Reps. Pat Tiberi and Steve Stivers, the Columbus Dispatch reported.

Ohio is losing two seats following redistricting. The current delegation is currently made up of 13 Republicans and five Democrats.

The new map, described to the paper by one source as "fluid," would allow Republicans to hold 12 of the state's 16 seats with Democrats holding the other four, but would also place Republican Reps. Steve Austria and Mike Turner in the same district.

It would combine the Democratic districts of Reps. Marcy Kaptur and Dennis Kucinich and blend together the districts of Democratic Reps. Betty Sutton and Tim Ryan.

The solid Democratic districts would be the winners of the two Democratic primaries, Rep. Marcia Fudge, and the Columbus (Franklin County) seat.

For Nevada state Treasurer Kate Marshall, the 2nd District special election campaign has been anything but.

As voters head to the polls on Tuesday, Republican Mark Amodei has all the momentum on his side, and is poised to easily defeat the Democratic nominee and hold the seat vacated earlier this year by now-Sen. Dean Heller for the GOP.

Tuesday's outcome appears to be all but certain, but it wasn't always clear that Amodei was on a trajectory for such a decisive victory. Several key developments along the way have swung the race in his favor.

(RELATED: Previewing the New York Special Election)

Polls are open from 7:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m. local time on Tuesday. Stay tuned to Hotline On Call for results once they begin to come in. But first, here's a look at the race's notable moments, as well as what to expect on Tuesday, and how Marshall could possibly pull off what would be a monumental upset:

The Rules Of The Game: Nevada has never held a special House election before, so the secretary of state's office was in uncharted waters when it was forced to decide whether the contest would be a "ballot-royale" style election in which all qualifying candidates, regardless of party, would be allowed on the ballot, or a system in which state party central committees would select nominees would be utilized.

ABC News' Diane Sawyer will be the first to interview Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, D-Ariz., following the the tragic shooting in Tucson that critically injured the congresswoman earlier this year. Giffords' husband Mark Kelly will also participate in the sit-down scheduled to air November 14th at 10 p.m.

Kelly has done several media interviews since the shooting but this will be the first interview with both Kelly and Giffords.

The interview will air the day before "Gabby: A Story of Courage and Hope," a memoir written by Giffords and Kelly, and co-written by Wall Street Journal columnist Jeffrey Zaslow, is set to be released.

Often, a candidate endorsement doesn't mean much on its own, but can nonetheless illustrate something about the trajectory of a race. Consider nods in the Utah and Michigan Senate races today:

-- One of the tangible byproducts of Rep. Jason Chaffetz's, R-Utah, (surprising) decision not to primary Sen. Orrin Hatch: It's easier for Mitt Romney to endorse Hatch, something the former governor officially did Monday morning.

Chaffetz endorsed Romney over Jon Huntsman (the congressman's former boss) in the GOP presidential race earlier this year. Hatch endorsed Romney too, but Romney would have been in a tough position to make an endorsement with both Chaffetz and Hatch running against each other.

Romney, perceived as a relative moderate nationally, is very popular in Utah GOP circles. Meanwhile, Tea Party activists are still trying to find a Chaffetz alternative. State Sen. Dan Liljenquist, a possibility for that role, was in Washington for meetings last week and attended President Obama's jobs speech.

-- In Michigan, the early days of Michigan Rep. Pete Hoekstra's campaign have been characterized by impressive endorsements. He's already been endorsed by one of his 2010 opponents, now-Gov. Rick Snyder. On Monday, he received the backing of another opponent from the 2010 GOP gubernatorial race: former Attorney General Mike Cox.

With two of Hoekstra's 2010 opponents in his corner, it becomes more difficult for Republican Clark Durant to reprise the attacks launched against Hoesktra during the 2010 campaign. The quick endorsements also underscore the threat Hoekstra and his allies perceive in Durant. Durant, for own part, countered Monday by announcing the backing of GM adviser Bob Lutz.

AP makes an interesting find in Indiana: an energy company state Treasurer Richard Mourdock holds stock in would stand to benefit from measures to combat climate change that the Republican himself has railed against.

Mourdock received the stock as payment for geological consulting he did about a decade ago and said he hasn't sold the stock because he wants to recoup the money he's owed for his work. As the story notes, it's not a traditional conflict of interest because Mourdock isn't benefiting from policies he's pushing.

Still, it's not the best headline for the outsider/Tea Party mantle Mourdock is trying to lay claim to. But it's unclear whether the nuanced issue has the legs to become a major matter in the GOP race.

It's worth noting though, stories like this have proved damaging in other races. In 2010, Republican Clint Didier, who ran in the Washington Senate race as a conservative outsider, railing against big government, was dinged when the Seattle Times revealed he was the beneficiary of hundreds of thousands in federal farm subsidies.

Democrats these days often charge that congressional Republicans are content to let the economy languish because they believe it will help defeat President Obama in 2012. So it was notable to hear National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman John Cornyn bluntly state last week that as far as the 2012 election goes, the economy is an issue for Democrats.

"What we experienced in the last administration is usually most of the ire is directed at the president," Cornyn said. "And so I think actually, I am sorry our country is not doing well, [but] from a political standpoint I think it's a problem for the president and his party."

"I think the president owns the economy and I think he owns the political problems associated with it," Cornyn added.

Cornyn was responding to my question about the effects of a bad economy and low congressional approval numbers on the 2012 Senate races. The quote is a partly included in a [subscriber] story in the National Journal magazine out this week, on the minimal effect those factors will have on Senate Republicans' disinclination to cooperate with Democrats.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Pawlenty backs Romney and jabs Perry, the GOP presidential candidates debate again tonight in Florida. And two special elections Tuesday contain some ominous signs for President Obama and Democrats. Here's today's rundown:

9) Legislation approved Friday by the Missouri state House would push the state's presidential primary from February to March.

8) New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg's approval rating is at its highest point in nearly a year, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll released early Monday. The poll also shows that an overwhelming 86 percent approve of Bloomberg's handling of preparations last month for Hurricane Irene, further proof that overreaction is the best policy for elected officials.

7) North Dakota Senate Minority Leader Ryan Taylor, a Democrat, says he's considering running for governor. He's previously acknowledged that he's thinking about the race, but his Friday statement gives the potential bid a more serious tone, the Bismarck Tribune reports.

6) Roll Call reports that the National Republican Congressional Committee is adding ten new Members to its incumbent protection program: freshman Reps. Jeff Denham, R, Calif., Bobby Schilling, R-Ill., Robert Dold, R-Ill., Michael Grimm, R-N.Y., Jon Runyan, R-N.J., Bill Johnson, R-Ohio, Jim Renacci, R-Ohio, Bob Gibbs, R-Ohio, and Scott Rigell, R-Va., and veteran Rep. Judy Biggert, R-Ill.

The inclusion of Denham, an ally of House Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif, is notable. Denham currently has a safe seat, but redistricting makes it much more precarious.

Jay Leno on Friday drew a comical comparison between former Cuban leader Fidel Castro, who made a rare television appearance on Thursday, and President Obama:

Leno joked, Castro "said he went on TV basically to prove that he's still alive. Pretty much the same reason President Obama was on TV last night: 'I'm still here!'"

And Bill Maher made a guest appearance on Leno, using the opportunity to lambaste the Republican 2012 field. On Texas Gov. Rick Perry, Maher said, "That's what America needs now, a president of the United States who's not really sold on the whole 'United States' concept."

Fast forward to today's Must See Moment at 1:18 when New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg makes a cameo on the season finale of HBO's "Curb Your Enthusiasm":

Take today's late night poll after the jump...

From National Journal:
PICTURES: Remembering Sept. 11

Democrats Fear New York, Nevada Losses

Pawlenty Backs Romney for President

Obama to Send Jobs Bill to Congress on Monday

PICTURES: Five Ways Congress Can Create Jobs

Former Republican presidential candidate Tim Pawlenty, who dropped out of the race last month, endorsed Mitt Romney for president, in an appearance on "Fox and Friends" this morning.

"The next president is going to have to lead on the economy and jobs in a historic way and there's one candidate in this race who is unmatched in his skills and experience and talent when it comes to turning around this economy and growing jobs. And that's Mitt Romney," Pawlenty said on the program. "And I'm proud and excited to endorse him for president of the United States."

(RELATED: Matthew Dowd--The Case for Perry's Attack on Social Security)

Pawlenty said he will be serving as the national co-chairman of Romney's campaign. He also said he didn't want to be considered as Romney's running mate. Pawlenty will be appearing with Romney Monday at a campaign event in Charleston, South Carolina.

Pawlenty's endorsement comes as the Republican establishment still has questions about Texas Gov. Rick Perry's electability in a general election. Pawlenty dropped out of the race last month after the Ames Straw poll just as Perry launched his candidacy.

Asked in the interview about Perry's writings equating Social Security to a Ponzi scheme, Pawlenty noted the contrast on the issue between the two presidential candidates.

"I know this. Governor Romney wants to fix Social Security. He doesn't believe it should be thrown out. He believes it should be reformed and fixed and I think that's the right approach. I think most Americans; most republicans understand that we're going to need Social Security in a reformed and improved fashion going forward. That's what Mitt Romney supports and that's what I support as well."

Pawlenty went on to draw a clear contrast between the two: "Gov. Romney wants to fix Social Security. He doesn't want to abolish it or end it...Gov. Perry has said in the past that he thought it was 'failed'.'"

After a mixed performance in his first debate since joining the field of Republican presidential candidates, Texas Gov. Rick Perry is maintaining his status as the national frontrunner, according to a new CNN/ORC International poll conducted on the eve of Perry's second debate.

Perry leads former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, 30 percent to 18 percent, according to the poll, released early Monday. Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin is at 15 percent, with Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, at 12 percent. All other candidates earn five percent or less -- including Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., who is at only four percent.

When respondents choosing Palin, who is considered unlikely to throw her hat into the ring, are asked for their second choice (and those choices are allocated), Perry has 32 percent, compared to 21 percent for Romney, 13 percent for Paul, 7 percent for Bachmann and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and 6 percent for businessman Herman Cain.

Less than three weeks ago, Perry led Romney by 13 points with Palin included, and by 14 points without her in the race.

GLENDALE, N.Y. -- Just two days before a contentious special election in New York's 9th District, the political attacks have fallen silent -- for the most part.

Campaigning in this Queens and Brooklyn district, which will elect a new representative just two days after the 10th anniversary of the September 11 terrorist attacks, has paused to mark the occasion, quieting the contentious battle between Democrat David Weprin and Republican Bob Turner. Neither campaign has official events, and political ads have been taken down for the day. There is no door knocking or phone banking despite the fact that the election is now less than 48 hours away.

Weprin, in his capacity as a state assemblyman, and Turner will spend the day at memorial events around the region. Weprin attended a ceremony in Glendale and has another scheduled in Bayside Hills. Turner attended a memorial mass in Glendale this morning, and later this evening will attend remembrances in Brooklyn and Breezy Point.

Weprin did not speak at the Glendale ceremony that drew over 300 this morning, but there were still indicators everywhere of the approaching vote. An empty storefront directly across the street from the memorial park had a Turner sign in its windows, and several of the houses in the area had Turner signs out front or leaflets that had been left on their door.

But the attacks have been a flashpoint in the increasingly contentious campaign nonetheless. In early August, Turner released his first, and only, television ad, slamming Weprin for supporting the right of a mosque to be built near Ground Zero.

"It's been ten short years. Everyone remembers," the narrator says, as images of the burning World Trade Center play across the screen. "Some, though, want to commemorate the tragedy by building a mosque on Ground Zero. President Obama thinks that's a good idea. And so does Congressional candidate David Weprin."

The New York State GOP has also paid for a direct mail piece that raises Weprin's position on the mosque, and superimposes an image of the proposed Islamic Center over the World Trade Center site.

KEW GARDENS, N.Y. -- Democrat David Weprin got a little help from his female friends this afternoon ahead of Tuesday's close special election in New York's 9th District.

With Weprin off the campaign trail on Saturday observing the Jewish Sabbath, Rep. Carolyn Maloney, D-N.Y., former Rep. Liz Holtzman, D-N.Y., and several other local and state female elected officials stumped on his behalf, saying Republican Bob Turner would endanger abortion rights and education issues for women.

The women's vote will be a crucial one in the neck-and-neck race, and Friday's Siena poll showed the candidates were splitting the female demographic, each receiving 47 percent.

"We need David Weprin in Congress to fight for our rights, end the House Republican war on women and get Americans back to work," said Maloney. "Bob Turner would be another vote for the radical Republican agenda to strip away women's access to life-saving health care, undermine Social Security and Medicare and turn their back on efforts to get our economy back on track."

The longtime congresswoman, who represents the affluent, east side of Manhattan and western Queens, pushed back against the notion that this special election should be used to register growing frustration with the Obama administration.

"If you want to send a message to Obama, call the White House," said Maloney. "If you want a great congressman that will fight for the district, vote for Weprin."

Still, Maloney acknowledged in an interview with Hotline On Call after the event that the recent poll numbers were cause for Democrats to be worried about the race.

"Of course I'm concerned, and I want to win. David has never lost an election, and I do not expect him to start now," said Maloney. "The district is three-to-one Democratic, and he's working hard, we're working hard, and we need to get our voters to the polls."

And that get-out-the-vote mission has been a top priority for Democrats in the campaign's final weekend. With over 1,000 volunteers on the ground, by midday on Saturday, Weprin's campaign had knocked on over 25,000 doors and were set to hit 50,000 by day's end. Before this weekend, Democrats had already contacted over 128,000 voters either by phone or in person.

Democrats also tapped an influential name to reach voters, with a robocall going out from Sen. Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., who held the House seat in the 1980s and 1990s

"As someone who used to represent this district in Congress, I know what it takes to represent the diverse and wonderful people of the 9th CD, and David Weprin has what it takes," Schumer says in the call, paid for with coordinated funds from the Democratic National Committee.

HOWARD BEACH, N.Y. - Republican Bob Turner rallied about 100 volunteers at his campaign headquarters this morning along Crossbay Boulevard, telling those gathered that their message and field organization could combat the spending barrage of the Democrats.

"I don't think they've been paying attention and knowing what you guys have been doing. We got this far with our volunteers from independents, Democrats and Republicans who know things aren't right and the people can fix it," Turner told the crowd outside his office. "We'll get 'em out in numbers that are gonna knock their socks off, and we're gonna win."

Inside his campaign headquarters, newspaper articles on the wall told the story of his unlikely surge against Democrat David Weprin in this Outer Borough district represented for decades by Democrats, including national figures like Sen. Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., and the late Geraldine Ferraro. Stories of Turner's endorsement from former New York City Democratic Mayor Ed Koch are nearly everywhere, and as you come in the door, there's a large poster of Koch shaking his finger, with the phrase: "David Weprin, stop scaring seniors."

Campaign literature from the campaign also points to the Koch endorsement heavily, which was a turning point for Turner, a Roman Catholic, within Orthodox Jewish community. Before the kick-off at his headquarters, Turner had been the guest at a local synagogue. And nearly every available brochure also ties Weprin to President Obama, whose disapproval ratings in the heavily-Democratic district have been climbing.

"Bob Turner is a businessman, he's not a career politician," one volunteer says while phonebanking, and goes on to highlight the endorsements from Koch and also former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, who cut a robocall for Turner on Friday.

"I think it will send a shockwave if Bob wins," said Republican Jane Deacy, a retired NYC police officer and teacher who's the nominee in a special Assembly election also on Tuesday that covers about a third of the district. Deacy, who leads the GOP in the 9th District, also introduced Turner at the rally.

One reason she believes Democrats overlooked this race early was because the 9th District is likely to be drawn out in reapportionment, but Deacy says if she's in Albany, that won't happen. In fact, that may be playing a role in fueling voter disenchantment with Democrats.

"It's not going to be eliminated if I have something to say about it," said Deacy.
Volunteers came from both inside and near the district to help with the campaign's final stretch.

Elio Forcina lives just outside the district in Whitestone, and ran for the state Assembly before as a Democrat, but now he's volunteering to help Turner pull off the upset in the district where he grew up in Glendale.

"I don't like the way the party's been going," said Forcina. "A message has to be sent, and this is the way to do it."

Brendan Ogle from Middle Village was here after attending a "Business Owners Opposing Obama-care" breakfast earlier that morning - and even wore a t-shirt from the event, spelled out "BOOO," with the signature O's that were Obama's campaign logo.

Pat McHugh of Rockaway, a Republican, said he saw the chance for his longtime district to finally flip, and that was why he attended with his six-year old daughter, Emily.

"My whole life, the country's been going in the wrong direction," said McHugh. "Now, this area isn't as hard core Democrat. It's a working class district."

What we at The Hotline learned this week:

-- If you think the spat between Texas Gov. Rick Perry and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney over Social Security is heated now, you ain't seen nothin' yet.

The tone of the back-and-forth between the rival campaigns has grown noticeably sharper since Wednesday's debate, with Perry's characterization of Social Security as a "Ponzi scheme" serving as the catalyst for their escalating dispute. The Romney campaign now sees a golden opportunity to leverage the issue -- one of immense importance to elderly voters -- during the next two debates, both of which will take place in senior-heavy Florida. Romney smells blood on the issue; watch for him to circle the wagons Monday in Tampa.

-- With his campaign shakeup and shifting of resources from Florida to New Hampshire, former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman really does seem to be attempting to recreate Sen. John McCain's, R-Ariz., 2008 strategy. Except there's one problem: McCain could always claim at least some base of GOP support, especially among veterans, even during his worst times. Where's Huntsman's base? The former Utah governor has yet to even break 5% of the vote in any Granite State or national poll.

-- President Obama struck the I-feel-your-pain chord in his address before a joint session on the economy, and is banking on the fact that public pressure will mount for a jobs plan. While his numbers have been nothing to write home about lately, Congress' numbers are even worse. How will the GOP leadership return serve? So far, Republican leaders have cast the measure as a second stimulus. The strength of Obama's bully pulpit will really be put to the test this fall as he seeks to overcome his own unpopularity.

-- The two special elections in NY-09 and NV-02 on Sept. 13 are shaping up to be a major referendum on Obama. Just as Democratic victories in the Deep South in '08 foreshadowed a historic year for the party, a loss in solidly-Democratic New York City will be ominous for Obama and downballot Democrats. With both Obama and Congress viewed unfavorably, the conventional wisdom was that there was a broad anti-incumbent sentiment that could threaten members from both parties. But if Democrats lose a seemingly-safe seat in New York and aren't even close in a Republican-leaning one in Nevada, it's looking like voters are still taking their anger out on Democrats.

The results are also worrisome for Senate Democrats, who need to hold onto nearly all the battlegrounds. If a once highly-touted Democratic candidate (Nevada state Treasurer Kate Marshall) can't even compete in a race that was once expected to be close, what does that say about Sen. Shelley Berkley's, D-Nev., prospects statewide? And what does that say about the chances of red-state Democrats, like Nebraska's Ben Nelson, Montana's Jon Tester, and Missouri's Claire McCaskill?

NEW YORK--Sensing an upset in the special election to succeed disgraced former Rep. Anthony Weiner, D-N.Y., national Republicans have been quietly boosting GOP nominee Bob Turner, both with late infusions of cash and boots on the ground this weekend.

The National Republican Congressional Campaign Committee has sent Turner's campaign an additional $20,000 in coordinated funds on the eve of Tuesday's vote, helping add to the former cable TV executive's coffers as he's being vastly outspent by Democrat David Weprin and his Democratic allies.

The NRCC and the Republican National Committee, along with the Ohio and Michigan state parties, have also been transferring funds to the Empire State GOP, helping the New York state party with direct mail and its "Phone from Home" program.

This weekend, the NRCC and the RNC will also have several staffers on the ground in the Queens and Brooklyn-based district helping Turner's campaign. The Pennsylvania Republican Party is sending volunteers to help in the final days as well.

More overt help from the national GOP in this liberal district could have had a negative effect. Frustration with Washington, and with President Obama in particular, is fueling the potential upset - explaining why national Republicans may have been hesitant to pour lump sums of independent expenditures into the race even as Turner's momentum continued to rise.

This weekend, the networks will air special programming commemorating the ten-year anniversary of the September 11, 2001 attacks.

CBS' Face the Nation will feature White House Counterterrorism Advisor John Brennan and New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg, discussing the recent threats to New York City and Washington D.C. Former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani will discuss the 10th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks.

ABC's This Week will be part of the network's coverage of the tenth anniversary of the attacks.

NBC will be airing segments of Brian Williams' interview with President Obama. Meet the Press will part of the "America Remembers" special coverage that will be airing throughout the day.

Fox News Channel's Fox News Sunday will feature Sens. Joe Lieberman, I-Conn., John McCain, R-Ariz., and Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Mich. Also, Rumsfeld and Giuliani will reflect on 9/11. Former Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff and Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., will be part of a Special 9/11 "Insider's Panel."

CNN's coverage of the 9/11 anniversary will include as guests Vice President Joe Biden, former Vice President Dick Cheney, Rumsfeld, Rep. Keith Ellison, D-Minn., and several others throughout the day.

Check out the the full listings after the jump.

New York Assemblyman David Weprin just can't catch a break in his race to replace former Rep. Anthony Weiner, D-N.Y. A video of the Democrat, who is fighting for his political life ahead of next week's special election, dancing somewhat less-than-gracefully emerged on the Web this week and is beginning to make the rounds online.

Weprin's awkwardness in the video is unlikely to help him in a race in which he faces constant accusations that he cannot connect with voters and lacks a personality. Or, as his opponent Bob Turner loves to point, Weprin isn't like the average New Yorker, he's "a career politician."

In honor of Mr. Weprin, and to let him know that he's not alone, we present: The top 5 worst dance moves by politicians. Hey, it's Friday. Enjoy.

5) Though former Secretary of State Colin Powell has arguably the best rhythm of this group, we can't ignore that of the ten moves involved in the Macarena, he appears to remember approximately four of them. (We also apologize for the quality of this video).

4) No matter how cute his story about then three-year-old daughter, Sasha Obama, the President truly failed to "drop it like" anything during this 2004 speech.

Former Missouri Sen. John Danforth says he isn't going to run for governor in 2012 and is supporting Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder.

Danforth told KMOX that he's "all for" Kinder, who after a rough summer with a string of negative headlines, has still not said whether he will run.

A online Draft Danforth movement had surfaced, sparking speculation over whether he would run, especially in light of Kinder's situation.

The Honolulu Star-Advertiser spots the presence of Hawaii Democratic Sens. Daniel Akaka and Daniel Inouye at a fundraiser for Rep. Mazie Hirono on Thursday.

Neither has officially endorsed in the race. "Sen Akaka is not making any endorsement at this time," said Akaka spokesman Jesse Broder Van Dyke. Inouye said in April (just after former Rep. Ed Case declared, but before Hirono did) that he "will not take sides in the primary."

But still.

The extent to which Democratic establishment figures and groups are encouraging (or protecting) Hirono is becoming clearer. When Case released a poll showing him performing better against possible Republican candidate Linda Lingle, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee immediately pushed back, saying their own numbers showed Hirono faring much better.

Given Case's own rocky past with Akaka and Inouye, it's not as if everyone expects the two to rally to his side in a contested primary.

The Nebraska Democratic Party is running its first campaign ad of the cycle, an ad that aims to set Sen. Ben Nelson, D-Neb., apart from the partisan sniping in Washington.

"They don't get it. They put politics ahead of what's best for the country," Nelson says, pointing to images of House Speaker John Boehner, Sen. Jim DeMint, House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi and -- for some reason -- Congressional Black Caucus chairman Emanuel Cleaver, D-Mo.

This isn't a fake ad buy, in which a party spends a little bit of money in hopes of earning much more free media. Instead, the state Democratic Party has put more than $200,000 behind the buy, according to a Republican source watching the numbers.

The ad will run in the Omaha, Lincoln and North Platte markets over the next two weeks. Democrats have purchased 708 gross ratings points, worth $72,215, in Omaha; 833 in Lincoln, for $64,135; and 611 in North Platte, for $9,160. They're also spending another $55,972 on cable buys throughout the state.

Though the state party's name is on the disclaimer, the ad really came from Washington Democrats. The Nebraska Democratic Party had just about $22,000 in the bank at the end of July, according to reports filed with the Federal Election Commission. And that month, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee sent the state party more than $83,000 (The DNC and the DSCC have given Nebraska Democrats at least $131,000 this year, more than a third of the total the party has raised all year). The party reported spending $80,000 on an issue ad that same month.

Sporting a large lead in the polls, Kentucky's Democratic Gov. Steve Beshear is protecting his frontrunner position by actively avoiding sharing the stage with Republican state Senate Pres. David Williams and independent candidate Gatewood Galbraith in the run-up to November.

Last week, Beshear decided to pull the plug on a "Kentucky Tonight" appearance slated for Sept. 26 that is set to feature Williams and Galbraith.

Beshear followed up Wednesday by dropping out of another candidates' event, this time with the Yearlings Club in Louisville. Event organizers told the Louisville Courier-Journal that Beshear previously agreed to attend a couple weeks ago.

One forum host, Democratic state Rep. Reginald Meeks, explained that Beshear's camp balked because the governor won't participate in anything dubbed a "forum" in the gubernatorial race. He is set to debate on statewide television Oct. 31.

Simply put, the less Beshear shows up next to Williams publicly, the less voters follow media reports that give attention to Williams. Beshear's used this front-runner strategy of refusing to engage Williams throughout the summer and it seems to be paying off. The latest cn2 poll showed the Democrat up by 29.

Keep this in mind: Beshear received negative criticism from Williams, Galbraith and the media alike for his performance at Fancy Farm, the marquee political event of the summer. He did not use his time at the lectern to defend his record or attack Williams in front of an audience of thousands of partisans, instead opting to talk about Kentucky National Guard members deployed overseas.

Republican Bob Turner holds a six-point lead in next week's special election to replace disgraced former Rep. Anthony Weiner, D-N.Y., according to a new Siena College poll released early Friday that shows voters in the overwhelmingly Democratic district are poised to deliver a stinging rebuke to President Obama and his party.

Turner leads Democratic Assemblyman David Weprin in the poll, 50 percent to 44 percent. Six percent of likely voters in the Sept. 13th election are undecided.

From National Journal:
PICTURES: Obama Addresses Congress on Jobs

Count the Times Obama Says 'Pass the Bill'?

Bridging the Widening Gap Between Minorities and Seniors

VIDEO: Officials Reflect on Hunt for bin Laden

Huntsman Shakes Up Finance Team

Discontent with Washington and the president is at the heart of Turner's shocking upset bid. In a district he won by 11 points just three years ago, Obama's favorability rating is now upside down in the Siena poll, with 54 percent having an unfavorable opinion of Obama and only 43 percent viewing him favorably. A remarkable 38 percent of Democrats and 68 percent of independents hold an unfavorable view of the president.

The Republican also has all the momentum: A Siena poll conducted four weeks ago showed Weprin with a six-point advantage. Turner's lead does fall barely within the margin of error, but the poll shows that the GOP is on the verge of a most unlikely victory in the Outer Boroughs-based district, where Democrats hold a three-to-one advantage on the voter rolls.

But the Democratic registration advantage is tempered by the poll's crosstabs. Turner runs much stronger among Republicans, holding 90 percent of the vote, than Weprin does among Democrats, taking just 63 percent. Independents are overwhelmingly lined up behind the Republican, with 65 percent of them supporting Turner and 27 percent choosing Weprin.

Turner's own internal polling last week had shown a tie, while the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee touted a poll showing Weprin with an 8-point lead. But clearly the DCCC has seen that tenuous sign of hope evaporate too, going up yesterday with a half-million-dollar ad-buy slamming Turner in the closing days of the race.

All of the late money may not have much of an impact, however. According to the Siena poll, 79 percent of likely voters say there is no chance they will change their mind, and 17 percent say they are unlikely to change their mind, leaving just 5 percent who say they are "not very certain" or "not certain at all" in their vote.

Indiana Treasurer Republican Richard Mourdock's primary challenge of Sen. Richard Lugar, hasn't gotten off to the fastest start. He has struggled to raise money and failed to win the endorsement of some conservative groups like the Club for Growth which want to see Lugar's career in the Senate come to an end.

But Mourdock's luck might be about to change once voters get a look at a photograph posted Thursday on Howey Politics Indiana, a Hoosier state politics news site. The picture, which shows Mourdock holding a large axe, apparently comes from a 2010 "Hunks on the Right" calendar put out by the Indianapolis Tea Party. According to the group's website, the calendar, which also features Indiana GOP chairman Eric Holcomb, can be yours for the low price of $10.00.

Stephen Colbert thinks Texas Gov. Rick Perry was the clear winner of the Republican presidential debate, "This guy is a straight shooter. And not just when he's jogging."

Jay Leno, on the one thing former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and Perry agreed on during the debate, "Shampoo, rinse and repeat."

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 0:20 when the 2012 GOP candidates square off against their mortal enemy ... MSNBC.

Take our Late Night Poll after the jump!

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. President Obama makes his jobs pitch before a joint session of Congress. Meanwhile, outside Democratic groups are making a last-ditch stand for Weiner's seat, Southern Democrats are looking extinct -- and Aaron Sorkin fans have something to celebrate. Here's today's rundown:

8) Walk-and-talk fans rejoice! HBO said on Thursday that it had picked up a new Aaron Sorkin series set in the world of cable news.

7) Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour will serve as a volunteer fundraiser for American Crossroads and Crossroads GPS, which also announced Thursday that it is doubling its previous combined fundraising goal for 2012, which was $120 million.

6) Two Maine Democrats may soon be challenging Republican Sen. Olympia Snowe. State Rep. Jon Hinck of Portland appears to be on the verge of running, and former Maine Secretary of State Matt Dunlap plans to make a decision in the next four to six weeks, the Portland Press-Herald reports.

5) Democrats' Southern woes continue. Thursday was the filing deadline for the fall elections in Louisiana. No major Democrat entered the governor's race and the Baton Rouge Advocate notes: the races for lieutenant governor, secretary of state and attorney general are pitting Republicans against each other. And for the third term in a row, Republican state Treasurer John Kennedy failed to draw an opponent.

Earlier this year, I wrote about Democrats' lack of candidates in statewide races in Mississippi. Things are not looking much better in the Bayou State's statewide contests.

Now you see it, now you don't.

Hours after dropping a nearly half-million dollar TV buy late into the increasingly competitive special election in New York's 9th District, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has edited their new advertisement, removing the image of a plane flying dangerously close to the Manhattan skyline just days before the 10th anniversary of the 9/11 terrorist attacks.

The original spot, which begins airing on New York City broadcast tomorrow through Monday in advance of the September 13 special election, had featured a supposed jet owned by Republican Bob Turner zooming across the NYC skyline touting a gaffe the former cable TV executive had made in a debate this week, saying he had never met a tax loophole he didn't like. The ad was not scheduled to air on Sunday, the 10th anniversary of the attacks.

Democrats have jumped into the special election to replace disgraced former Rep. Anthony Weiner, D-N.Y., after polls have shown that Turner is closing the gap in the deeply Democratic district against Assemblyman David Weprin.

But late Thursday, the ad mysteriously disappeared from YouTube, only to be later replaced with a new ad that scrubbed the city skyline, replacing it with clear skies.

DCCC spokeswoman Jennifer Crider explained the change in a statement: "The independent expenditure made a small tweak to remove the brief image of the skyline to not distract from the message that Republican Bob Turner hasn't met a corporate tax loophole he didn't like while pushing drastic cuts to Social Security and Medicare."

Still, national Republicans were all too quick to point out the swift fix as further evidence of a fledgling Democratic campaign that's been beset by several gaffes by Weprin himself, whom many Democrats are now beginning to paint as a lackluster candidate responsible for endangering their lock on the Queens-Brooklyn district.

"You see they CHANGED the ad? DCC-Chaos," one national GOP source wrote.

Watch the new ad after the jump:

Sniffing an upset in Anthony Weiner's old district, the National Republican Congressional Committee is preparing to spend significant money to counter a Democratic advertising wave.

According to several sources familiar with the group's intentions, the NRCC has been inquiring about buying advertising time on costly New York City broadcast television from now until the special election on Sept. 13.

Both campaign committees' moves, along with the active involvement of several outside groups in the race, underscore how close the race in a solidly-Democratic Queens and Brooklyn seat has become. Labor, gay-rights groups, and national party groups are now actively involved in the race between Democratic Assemblyman David Weprin and Republican businessman Bob Turner.

House Majority PAC, which is helping elect Congressional Democrats, will begin airing ads on Friday, hammering o Republican Bob Turner for his tea party connection. The group's six-figure buy on both cable and broadcast in New York City will not run on September 11.

"If Republicans like Robert Turner are going to play footsies with the Tea Party, the House Majority PAC is going to stomp on their toes," said House Majority PAC executive director Ali Lapp.