October 2011

The spotlight is The Hotline's (subscriber) take on the day's leading political news:

Dressing up as something you're not, scaring your associates and knocking on doors demanding handouts -- is it just us, or was Halloween made for D.C.? There's plenty for politicians to fear on the spookiest night of the year:

-- The tea party should worry about irrelevance. Sen. Richard Lugar, R-Ind., looks strong in his primary, especially given that independents can vote. No one is actually challenging Sen. Orrin Hatch, R-Utah, (yet). And Sen. Olympia Snowe, R-Maine, appears safe too. Where's the supposedly inevitable organization from the right?

-- Mitt Romney ought to be afraid of Iowa. His advisers are debating engaging in the state, and the prospect of an early-round knockout must be enticing. Don't forget, he dropped millions on a second-place finish in 2008, and his support is weak. But the fact that he's even competitive demonstrates the underground success he's had in keeping his 2008 team together.

-- And Herman Cain should be afraid of his own shadow. Cain has never been the front-runner he's made out to be, given his lack of a real campaign organization. But new revelations about his behavior, and his refusal to answer a question asked four times on the matter, will let the air out of the Cain bubble. He was in Washington today and appearances at AEI and the National Press Club were overshadowed by sexual harassment allegations.

Finally, President Obama should fear trick-or-treaters. The White House is giving away dried fruit this year; that's an invitation for an egging. Happy Halloween.

Sen. Claire McCaskill, D-Mo., makes clear to the St. Louis Beacon that she won't be running and hiding from President Obama, even as she faces a tough reelection bid in a state the president's almost certainly not going to win.

McCaskill said she will be asking Obama to stump for her and help her raise money, but added that she doesn't always agree with him.

Vulnerable Democrats in comparable positions should take notice. Opponents will tie McCaskill to Obama no matter what she does: She was a major surrogate in 2008 and there are plenty of photos of the two for TV ads (Republican John Brunner has already run one tying the two together). Running away from Obama will only generate negative press coverage (when McCaskill missed an early October Obama fundraiser, that was a story).

Another way of looking at it: If you are going to be tied to an unpopular president, you may as well let him use his standing to help you raise some money along the way.

It wasn't a total loss.

Wisconsin Democrats fell one victory short of retaking control of the state Senate during the summer's recall elections. But they narrowed the GOP advantage to 17-16, meaning that assuming all Democrats support a given measure, all they need is one Republican to break in their favor to have the upper hand.

That's what happened Monday when Republican state Sen. Dale Schultz said he would not support a GOP-backed measure to make it more difficult to recall incumbents.

Democrats and labor activists were disappointed in the larger outcome of the recalls. And with good reason. But here's another reminder that at the level of sausage making, incremental gains can make a difference.

(h/t Daily Kos Elections)

Republican Rob McKenna has a slight lead over Rep. Jay Inslee, D-Wash., in the 2012 gubernatorial race in Washington State, expected to be one of the most competitive state races of the cycle, according to a new University of Washington poll released Monday.

McKenna, the two-term state attorney general, leads Inslee, 44 percent to 38 percent. That is just barely inside the poll's margin of error of +/- 3.2 percent. Eighteen percent of voters were undecided.

McKenna, who was reelected in 2008 with nearly 60 percent of the vote, leads Inslee among independents, 44 percent to 28 percent.

McKenna is better-known -- and more popular -- than Inslee, who represents a district that straddles the Puget Sound around and north of Seattle. McKenna is viewed favorably by 47 percent of Evergreen State voters, while just 20 percent have an unfavorable opinion of him.

Meanwhile, half of voters don't know enough about Inslee to have an opinion. A third of voters have a favorable opinion of Inslee, while 17 percent have an unfavorable opinion.

Updated at 12:12 p.m.

Kentucky Senate President David Williams's stretch run media campaign is putting a spotlight on the Republican and Democratic nominees -- for lieutenant governor.

The GOP gubernatorial nominee's latest TV ad features his running mate, state Agriculture Commissioner Richie Farmer, who tries to tie Democratic Gov. Steve Beshear to President Obama.

The television ad follows a web ad Williams' campaign circulated last week, which was critical of Beshear's running-mate, former Louisville Mayor Jerry Abramson.

It's a bit ironic that Farmer would appear in one of the final Williams ads, considering that in the lead up to the primary, a string of negative stories about the agriculture commissioner put the campaign on the defensive. But Farmer is also a well-known former college basketball star from the University of Kentucky, and that could help the ticket. A quick glance at the latest polling reveals another reason why we're seeing Farmer, not Williams.

According to a cn|2 poll released on Oct. 21, Williams's fav/unfav numbers were underwater: 34 percent had a favorable opinion of him while 44 percent did not. To boot, Williams was being blown out by Beshear, 54 percent to 26 percent, in the same poll, as the governor sported a glistening 69 percent approval rating. The GOP effort to introduce Obama into the equation is also clear from the polling. His approval rating in the poll was 43 percent; 54 percent disapproved.

Focusing on lieutenant governor running mates is an unorthodox approach, but when you're down 28 points, why not give it a try?

The candidates will debate for the final time tonight.

North Dakota Gov. Jack Dalrymple will announce this week that he will run for his first full term, and he's already got an opponent, as Democrat Ryan Taylor offers an announcement timeline of his own.

A Republican source has confirmed that Dalyrmple will announce this week that he is running. The Fargo Forum reported late on Friday that Dalrymple is planning a multi-city tour beginning Tuesday. The paper cited the chairman of the state Republican Party, who said Dalrymple has told him he is running.

Dalrymple, formerly the lieutenant governor, took over as governor in December of 2010, after John Hoeven won a Senate seat.

On the Democratic side, the Forum also reported that Democratic state Senate Minority Leader Taylor said he's planning to announce he's running after the legislative session wraps up next month. "I don't see anything that would change my mind the other way at this point," he told the paper.

David Letterman's top 10 list on Friday focused on the reasons that Herman Cain's campaign is in trouble.

Jay Leno had some fun with the Republican presidential candidate, too. "Cain told a group of Occupy Wall Street protesters today to go home, get a job and get a life," he said. "That's the Republican version of hope and change."

Don't miss today's Must See Moment where Letterman presents a mash-up of Cain's "smoking ad" with "It's a Great Pumpkin, Charlie Brown":

Take our late-night poll after the jump...

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Cain faces allegations of inappropriate behavior, and he's in Washington today to deal with what will be a swarm of media at his appearances. Meanwhile, Rangel may get a primary challenge from a former Clinton adviser, Matheson won't challenge Hatch and team Perry says he'll debate after all. Here's today's rundown:

7) Jon Huntsman meets voters -- and a goat -- in New Hampshire.

6) Here's the latest sign that establishment Republicans are coalescing around Mitt Romney: The Wall Street Journal finds that many of George W. Bush's top donors are giving to the former Bay State governor. Romney has won maximum contributions from twice as many of the top Bush backers as Texas Gov. Rick Perry.

Meanwhile, after floating the idea that Perry might skip future debates, his campaign said over the weekend that the governor plans to participate in at least five more.

5) The New York Times reports that Clyde Williams, a former adviser to Bill Clinton, is considering a challenge to Rep. Charles Rangel, D-N.Y. Williams, who also has ties to President Obama, has commissioned a poll and met with donors.

What we at the Hotline learned this week:

-- Who wants to run against Sen. Orrin Hatch, R-Utah? Right now, the answer is no one, so far. Republican Rep. Jason Chaffetz said no thanks to a primary challenge, and now, Democratic Rep. Jim Matheson is passing on a bid as well, even as he faces a tough situation following redistricting. One of the cycle's top Tea Party targets is running unopposed with a fat war chest right now.

-- Rep. Connie Mack, R-Fla., has finally brought some sizzle to the Senate race against Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson, thanks to his brand-name biography and potential to rally establishment money and support on his side. But don't assume he'll be a clear frontrunner. Mack has some glaring vulnerabilities that have given other high-profile Republican candidates major problems in this political environment. He's a consummate Washington insider -- his dad served two terms in the Senate -- and is married to Congresswoman Mary Bono Mack of California. And his centrist positioning on immigration will play well in a general, but could cause problems in a primary.

-- Turns out Elizabeth Warren has been lunching with an industry lobbyist who once had ties to a company she has criticized and more than a dozen of President Obama's bundlers are involved in lobbying. The reality in D.C: Lobbyists play a major role in the government, and in funding the campaigns those politicians run it, making it difficult to constantly rail against them.

-- Texas Gov. Rick Perry grabbed headlines in New Hampshire Friday, filing his paperwork for the primary ballot before headlining a major conservative event in Manchester. But he wasn't alone; Mitt Romney courted Granite State voters at a town hall meeting mere miles from Perry's event, and despite denials from the Romney camp, the message was unmistakable: This is my state, and you'll have to pry a victory here from my cold, dead hands.

Over the top? Hardly. The electoral math is complicated for Romney -- there are numerous scenarios detailing which states he could win or lose en route to the nomination -- but this much is simple: he must win New Hampshire to be the Republican nominee. And despite mounting evidence that Romney is making a surreptitious push to steal an Iowa victory, he knows where his bread is buttered.

-- If you're Perry, you know it's been a rough week when you reboot your campaign on Monday and by Friday everyone is talking about why you likely won't be participating in all of the upcoming debates.

Former Rep. Chris Shays, R-Conn., isn't afraid to welcome help this time in his Senate bid.

In his prior House campaigns, Shays had asked the National Republican Congressional Committee not to run ads attacking his Democratic opponents and never ran negative ads himself, ultimately losing to now-Rep. Jim Himes, D-Conn. But in his new statewide bid, the former congressman says he welcomes help going on offense from outside groups in 2012.

"If I've got a hundred people shooting at me and I've got some other people that want to help shoot back, praise the Lord," Shays said in an interview with Hotline On Call Friday afternoon.

This time, he says, if he wins the competitive GOP primary, he wouldn't stop the National Republican Senatorial Committee from helping him in his bid, so long as the ads are, in his view, appropriate.

"I want as much help as I can get from anyone," said Shays. "I would hope that whatever help it is constructive, fair to all players -- and if I saw ads that were unfair to my opponent, I certainly would make it clear that I don't think they are appropriate."

Shays' new thinking is a sign of the changing times. In a cycle in which super PACs and other outside groups have a powerful voice in electoral politics following the 2010 Citizens United decision, it's not just the campaign committees that are getting involved. It's a new environment where many different groups can tip the balance in races, which Shays acknowledged.

"If my opponent in the general said, you know what, let's just have it be us, and we could keep it that way that would be perfect," Shays said, before acknowledging that's not the way things work.

"I'm not going to be seeking it out, but I'm certainly not going not going to push anyone away. The stakes are too high," he added.

In terms of his own fundraising, Shays set a goal of raising a million dollars total by the end of the year.

"I clearly need to raise a million," he said, adding that he needs to raise between $4 and $6 million before the GOP primary in August, against former WWE CEO Linda McMahon, his main competitor.

Texas Gov. Rick Perry will cap his tough week with an appearance on Fox News Sunday this weekend. The appearance will be an opportunity for Perry to redirect the conversation on his candidacy; the week began with the governor wading more deeply into the birther issue and in CNN/Time's polls of the first four primary states later in the week, Perry turned in a poor showing. The Perry's camp's recent signal that he may start skipping debates is also a likely topic of conversation.

A note: despite various media reports to the contrary, Perry will not be on Fox News Sunday for the full hour. His interview will air during both interview time slots, followed by a political roundtable.

Herman Cain will be on Face the Nation on Sunday, his second appearance on the program in three weeks. In a video preview for the interview, host Bob Schieffer actually laughs as he refers to Cain as "the Republican frontrunner," but later adds, "the time has come to start taking Herman Cain seriously." Though Cain's Chief of Staff Mark Block's unorthodox campaign video is almost sure to come up -- as it did in all of Cain's TV appearances this week -- Schieffer seems intent on getting back to the issues, particularly Cain's political organization and his strong second-place standing in CNN/Time polls in Iowa and South Carolina.

Check out the full listings after the jump.

As George Will noted recently, the Senate race in Indiana appears to present this cycle's best opportunity for conservative activists to take down an incumbent Republican senator in a primary. While Sens. Orrin Hatch, R-Utah, and Olympia Snowe, R-Maine, haven't attracted serious challenges from the right, Sen. Richard Lugar faces his toughest reelection battle in years in his GOP primary matchup against state Treasurer Richard Mourdock.

While many conservative leaders and organizations have voiced their support for Mourdock, one conservative group is conspicuously absent from his list of endorsements: the Club for Growth. In April, Club president Chris Chocola, who served alongside Lugar in Indiana's congressional delegation for four years as a House member, told ABC News he thought it was "probably best" if Lugar retire. Since then, the Club has spent money encouraging Lugar to do just that. In July, they released a television ad targeting Lugar and a poll showing Mourdock leading Lugar for the GOP nomination.

In addition to a collection of local Tea Party groups calling themselves Hoosiers for a Conservative Senate, Mourdock has received endorsements from FreedomWorks and the Tea Party Express, as well as the backing of the surprise frontrunner in recent polls in the GOP presidential primary, Herman Cain.

But despite a documented desire to see Lugar's six-term tenure come to an end and a willingness to spend money on the race, the Club hasn't officially made an endorsement. Club spokesman Barney Keller declined to discuss the Club's view of Mourdock, simply saying that the group is still looking at the race.

In an interview with Hotline on Call, Mourdock said he wasn't sure why the group hadn't endorsed him yet. But he acknowledged that his first meeting with the Club could have gone better.

The recent additions of former Hawaii Gov. Linda Lingle and Rep. Connie Mack, R-Fla., to the roll of GOP Senate candidates this cycle may have looked like an end point for Senate recruiting. While most of the fields in the major races are set, there are still a few unknown variables to keep an eye on:

-- Florida: Mack's entrance gives Republicans a fresh boost of energy in a race that's otherwise been characterized by anemic fundraising and lackluster candidates. But the nomination isn't going to be handed to him. Some Republicans are eying state CFO Jeff Atwater, the former state Senate President, as another attractive alternative to add to the mix.

-- West Virginia: As my colleague Julie Sobel recently pointed out, the Mountain State will play host to both a Senate race and a gubernatorial contest in 2012, but no GOP contenders have surfaced in either so far. Businessman Bill Maloney, who lost a close special election to Gov.-elect Earl Ray Tomblin, could run in either, but the governor's race is the more likely choice if he makes another run. GOP Chairman Mike Stuart's name won't appear on a ballot next year, he confirmed this week.

The big question mark is Rep. Shelley Moore Capito, R-W.Va., who could be more interested in running for the Senate in 2014. Capito is popular, but so is Manchin, and his standing may be enough to scare away top flight GOP talent.

-- Arizona: Former state Democratic Party Chairman Don Bivens has entered the race, but many Democrats are still waiting on a decision from former U.S. Surgeon General Richard Carmona, who received a call from President Obama urging him to run.

Updated at 2:30 p.m.

Portland residents, don't adjust your television screens. Yes, that's Rep. Earl Blumenauer's, D-Ore., original 1996 special election ad that's about to begin airing.

We noted earlier this week the similarities between Republican Rob Cornilles's first ad in the upcoming special election in Oregon's 1st District and the spot Blumenauer first ran his when he was running to succeed now Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Ore., in the 3rd District. Cornilles, who was the 2010 nominee, will likely face the winner of the Nov. 8 Democratic primary next January.

It seems Blumenauer's team noticed the resemblance, too. His campaign is announcing that they're going to be putting the neighboring Democrat's 30-second ad back on TV this weekend as a direct contrast to Republican's commercial.

It's small five-figure buy, running three days starting Sunday, likely running back-to-back with the Cornilles spot. And there will be minor modifications, too. The first shot notes it was originally aired in 1996. Federal Election Commission regulations have changed in the 15 years since its original airing, and a portion in which Blumenauer encouraged voters to fill out their mail-in ballots will be replaced with Blumenauer saying, "I'm Earl Blumenauer, and I still approve this ad" -- along with a photo of Blumenauer standing on the same esplanade along the Willamette River -- which is actually in Blumenauer's District.

"We're doing it basically to make a point about Cornilles stealing our ad and stealing other ideas," Blumenauer campaign manager Willie Smith told Hotline On Call.

Cornilles' response to the air assault? Let's chat about it on a run. He's inviting him for a jaunt tomorrow morning at 9 a.m., local time along the Willamette River by the Salmon Street Springs Fountain.

"Oregonians want Congress to get things done. Earl and I don't agree on every issue. But to move Oregon forward, we need a new direction and members of Congress willing to talk,'' Cornilles said. "What better time to do this than when we're doing something we both enjoy. I look forward to seeing the Congressman in the morning."\

But Smith told Hotline On Call that the congressman wouldn't be accepting Cornilles' invitation.

"Unfortunately, the Congressman is already scheduled through the weekend and since Rob is still in a Republican primary we wouldn't want to help or hurt anyone," said Smith. "After the primary, it would depend on which Rob Cornilles shows up."

The St. Louis Cardinals' exhilarating come-from-behind win last night over the Texas Rangers moves the World Series into a final Game 7 tonight - but that's also the same night House Speaker John Boehner was slated to be in St. Louis for a fundraiser for the National Republican Congressional Committee.

The St. Louis Beacon reports the fundraiser at the west St. Louis County estate of former U.S. Ambassador Stephen Brauer was scheduled for Friday evening, but with the Cardinal faithful hoping their team can pull off an unlikely World Series comeback, attendance could be down - or they could be huddled around TVs tuned to FOX there instead.

One GOP source speculated the fundraiser could be shifted to accommodate those who might want to head to Busch Stadium - including the Speaker.

Boehner spokesman Corey Fritz could only confirm that Boehner would be in the Gateway to the West for events benefiting both the NRCC and the Boehner for Speaker committees.

On "The Daily Show" Thursday, Jon Stewart channeled Patrick Swayze in "Dirty Dancing" while talking about the Republican field.

"In the race to be the craziest, there can be only one," Stewart joked. "And no one puts Herman in a corner." Stewart then shows some footage of a younger Cain singing his take on a John Lennon classic, "Imagine There's No Pizza."

And don't miss today's Must See Moment at 2:20 where Jimmy Kimmel presents a Charlie Brown republican debate:

Take our late-night poll after the jump...

The large Republican presidential field, along with the dramatic surges and collapses of several of its candidates, may ultimately be much ado about nothing. That, at least, is the conclusion of the Republican strategists surveyed in this week's National Journal Political Insiders Poll, who almost unanimously identified Mitt Romney as the most likely candidate to win the nomination. In the five times the GOP Insiders have been asked that question in 2011, Romney has never surrendered the top spot.

Democratic Insiders, meanwhile, largely believe Republicans are on the right track, with more than two-thirds of them naming Romney as the strongest candidate the GOP could nominate for the 2012 election.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Some Republicans in Florida are trying to coax Atwater into the Senate race, Christie is headed to to North Carolina and Mississippi to lend a hand to McCrory/Bryant, President Obama's bundler are involved in lobbying and Gary Johnson races against time in the Granite State. Here's today's rundown:

8) Oops: Former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson plans to file for the primary in New Hampshire this morning, after taking a red eye flight. He failed to file by proxy on Thursday. "The technical term is that we screwed up," his communications director told First Read.

7) Oregon Democratic state Sen. Suzanne Bonamici is the favorite to win the Nov. 8 Democratic primary in the race to replace disgraced former Rep. David Wu, D-Ore. for the last year of his term, according to a new KGW-TV/Oregonian poll released early Friday. Bonamici leads the field with 45 percent, trailed by state Labor Commissioner Brad Avakian at 11 percent and state Rep. Brad Witt at 5 percent; Bonamici runs best among women and older voters. A relatively large percentage of likely Democratic voters, 38 percent, remain undecided in the poll, conducted earlier this week by Seattle-based pollster Elway Research.

6) Nebraska Republican Attorney General Jon Bruning's Twitter account was hacked, he says. Roll Call has screengrabs.

5) New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie will raise money for former Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory -- who is likely to run against Democratic Gov. Bev Perdue -- on Nov. 28. Christie is also campaigning for Mississippi Lt. Gov. Phil Bryant next Thursday.

Once your campaign website dubs you "John the Job Creator," the optics of your own company announcing a round of layoffs are not good.

That's the situation Missouri Republican Senate candidate John Brunner is facing. The St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that Brunner's company, Vi-Jon, commissioned a round of layoffs this week.

Brunner's spokesman told the paper that the layoffs reflect the poor business atmosphere caused by over-regulation and too many taxes.

Not the story Brunner would want to see in the early stages of a campaign in which he's trying to tout his business acumen.

Rep. Connie Mack's, R-Fla., decision to reverse course and enter the Florida Senate race will alter the dynamic of a GOP contest that has so far been characterized by a lack of candidate enthusiasm. While there are several question marks surrounding Mack's candidacy, the glaring lack of a consensus candidate in the current GOP field means there is also a golden opportunity for him.

The Republican primary was beginning to resemble a U2 song. "Still haven't found what I'm looking for" accurately summed up the mood of the Republican electorate in the Sunshine State: In the last three live-caller polls, over 50 percent of Republican primary voters were undecided and in none of the three polls did any candidate receive more than 17 percent support.

"There have been four guys running for almost a year. They have anemic fundraising numbers, their name recognition is even worse and their polling is in the basement," said Florida GOP strategist Ana Navarro.

Of the candidates already in the race before Mack entered, several still have the potential to make a splash, but none is without a notable Achilles Heel. Former Sen. George LeMieux's has something of a name ID advantage from his time in the Senate, but his connection to Republican-turned-independent Charlie Crist makes him ripe for attacks from the right.

Former state House Majority Leader Adam Hasner, who is pitching himself as the conservative choice, has struggled to gain traction and raise money (though, LeMieux did even worse than Hasner last quarter). And even as he has positioned himself as the candidate most similar to GOP Sen. Marco Rubio, he won't have the support of the senator, who will remain neutral in the race. The rest of the field includes a former congressional candidate and former Ruth's Chris Steakhouse CEO (Craig Miller), a retired Army colonel (Mike McCalister) who has raised almost no money and an unproven businessman (Ron Rushing).

Enter Mack, the son of a former senator, and the husband of Rep. Mary Bono Mack, R-Calif., who comes into the picture with strong name ID.

When FreedomWorks endorsed state Treasurer Richard Mourdock in the Indiana Senate race, the group cited encouragement to support Mourdock from "every corner of the state -- from White County to Allen County to Pike County, from Lee County to Marion County to Washington County."

Just one problem. There is no Lee County in Indiana, as Sen. Richard Lugar's campaign, R-Ind., pointed out in an email to supporters on Thursday.

Lugar's campaign also notes that FreedomWorks "has stated its opposition to less than 1% of the votes Dick Lugar has cast in the U.S. Senate on behalf of Indiana."

A FreedomWorks spokeswoman said that "Lee County" was a typo and was supposed to read "Lake County."

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and Virginia GOP Gov. Bob McDonnell rallied together to support local GOP candidates in Northern Virginia on Wednesday but tailored their speeches to national audiences.

McDonnell spoke out against President Obama's policies and federal issues in Gainesville with a local state Senate candidate and in Fairfax with Romney.

In fact, he hardly discussed any local issues, like transportation, at all. He also echoed Romney's comments about America being a "shining city on the hill" as both used that phrase during their stump speeches.

"We have some serious challenges facing the country and so it's time to elect serious leaders if you're going to fix it," said McDonnell in Gainesville before touting his own ideals. "We balance the budget (in Virginia). That's why I think a balanced budget amendment to the Constitution's probably a good idea; being able to hold people accountable for making sure we don't spend $1.5 trillion more than we have every year. It's immoral, it's unsustainable and it's just really bad for the future of our country."

Romney did not rule in or out the idea of running with McDonnell as his vice presidential nominee next year. McDonnell declined in an interview to discuss whether he would take a position as someone's running mate.

As to whether Romney asked McDonnell for his endorsement, "I ask every governor for their endorsement," replied Romney to laughs.

Rep. Connie Mack's entrance into the Florida Senate campaign will give political pundits another chance to see how potent an issue immigration will be within a Republican primary. Mack, who changed course and jumped into the campaign last night, is viewed as a leading candidate given the Republican field's fundraising struggles and his brand-name in Florida politics (his father, Connie Mack III, served two terms in the Senate from the Sunshine State.)

But he's been a strident critic of Arizona's crackdown on illegal immigration, even comparing the law to Nazi Gestapo tactics during World War II. If Rick Perry's support sunk in the presidential primary because he considered opponents "heartless" for opposing in-state tuition for children of illegal immigrants, imagine the damage those comments could cause Mack in a Republican primary.

Immigration has been a very delicate issue for Republicans, even those inclined to take a more moderate approach. Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, who has touted his Cuban-American heritage as a candidate and senator, has tacked right on the issue. Rep. Jeff Flake, who is running for the Senate in Arizona, once co-sponsored a bill with liberal Rep. Luis Gutierrez, D-Ill. giving illegal immigrants a path to citizenship. Now he's stressing his border security bona fides. Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., repositioned himself as an immigration hawk to fend off a primary challenge last year from former Rep. J.D. Hayworth.

When she announced her Senate campaign, Consumer Financial Protection Bureau architect and Harvard professor Elizabeth Warren criticized Washington for being "rigged for big corporations that hire armies of lobbyists" and singled out GE for paying "nothing in taxes." But a review of CFPB calendars shows that Warren had lunch on four occasions in 2010 with a lobbyist who donated $1,000 to her campaign and whose company also lobbied on behalf of GE for several years.

The Boston Herald reported on Wednesday that Warren received a $1,000 donation from Robert Raben, whose company lobbied for GE from 2003 to 2010.

Now, a Republican source passes along calendar records from Warren's time with the CFPB showing that on four different occasions in 2011, Raben and Warren got together for lunch, in January, March, May and July of this year. And in 2010, when Warren was chairing the TARP Congressional Oversight Panel, she also headlined a Raben Group policy breakfast.

When asked about the meetings with Raben, Warren's campaign said she met with hundreds of people and groups during the time she spent with CFPB as part of a broad outreach effort.

The Republican presidential field was the target of late-night jokes again on Wednesday. David Letterman joked that Rick Perry executed his pollster after the Texas governor fell in the polls.

And Jay Leno took aim at Michele Bachmann. "Bachmann told reporters that she would lead the nation in prayer if she is elected president," Leno said. "You know, if she is elected president, we're all going to be praying."

Don't miss today's Must See Moment at 2:37 where President Obama reacts to Hillary Clinton shutting down the possibility of running on the incumbent ticket in 2012:

Take our late-night poll after the jump...

Keep your friends close ... and your opponents closer?

Wisconsin Assembly Speaker Jeff Fitzgerald is running for the Senate against former Gov. Tommy Thompson. But that's not stopping Fitzgerald from keeping a picture of Thompson in his office.

The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel notes that Fitzgerald has no plans to take down the portrait of Thompson, which he acquired in 2009.

"I still respect the guy," Fitzgerald told the paper.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Mack will run for Senate in Florida, but McCaul won't in Texas. Meanwhile, Perry's team suggests he could be scaling back his debate appearances and Cain's team establishes some rules of the road. Here's today's rundown:

7) The New York Times finds this tidbit from a Herman Cain campaign memo regarding traveling in a car with the presidential candidate: "Do not speak to him unless you are spoken to."

6) Time and again, Texas Gov. Rick Perry has underwhelmed during the debates. Now, Perry's campaign is suggesting his participation in future debates will be limited.

5) Arizona Republican Gov. Jan Brewer is taking the first step in the process for forcibly removing one or more of the commissioners on the state Independent Redistricting Commission, the Arizona Capitol Times reports.

4) Meanwhile, in California, the state Supreme Court on Wednesday decided not to intervene in new districts drawn by a citizens commission, the Los Angeles Times reports. And in Texas, a Department of Justice filing makes it likely that a panel of three federal judges will have to draw interim district maps for the state.

If Rep. Brad Miller, D-N.C., does decide to primary Rep. David Price, D-N.C., next year, he'll start off at a significant disadvantage, according to a poll conducted for Price's campaign.

Obtained by Hotline On Call from a Democratic source, the polling memo from Democratic firm Garin-Hart-Yang shows Price would take 46 percent of the vote to Miller's 25 percent, with 29 percent of those surveyed still undecided. Of the roughly three-fifths of voters who said they were familiar with both Democratic incumbents, Price's lead grows to 50 percent, while Miller registers 28 percent support.

"Price's early advantage is not just the product of higher name recognition," the polling memo concludes.

The dean of the state's Democratic delegation, Price's voters are also more committed to him, according to the poll. Seventy-two percent of Price's voters say they strongly support him, but just 42 percent of Miller's voters feel that way. Price's personal favorability rating is also nearly nine-to-one positive, and three in five voters rated his performance as excellent or good.

Miller hasn't yet declared where he'll run in 2012, but the five-term Democrat is looking like he is moving toward challenging Price in the 4th District after Tar Heel State Republicans chopped up his 13th District, making it virtually unwinnable for a Democrat. Miller's home is barely inside the 4th District. But lately, he's been lining up support in his hometown of Fayetteville, now within the 4th District.

The survey tested 404 likely Democratic primary voters from the new 4th congressional district between Oct. 17 and 19, and has a margin of error of +/- 5 percentage points.

1. The TIME/CNN/ORC polls released Wednesday afternoon from the first four states on the 2012 Republican calendar paint a consistent picture of the Republican race. These polls show that the GOP race is being shaped by parallel but disparate movements: a more moderate and secular wing of the party is coalescing around Mitt Romney, while a more economically and culturally conservative wing continues to resist him, but remains more divided than the roughly other half of the party. That pattern is sufficient to place Romney in the lead comfortably in New Hampshire and Florida, and within the margin of error in Iowa and South Carolina, according to the surveys.

2. One consistent dividing line in all four polls is attitudes toward the Tea Party. In each of the states except New Hampshire, Romney polls higher among voters who are neutral or opposed to the Tea Party than those who say they support it. Herman Cain, in mirror image, polls substantially better among Tea Party supporters in all four states.

3. Cain leads Romney among Tea Party supporters in South Carolina (29-23) and Iowa (29-17) and ties him in Florida (26-26); only in New Hampshire does Romney lead Cain among Tea Party supporters (43-23). But Romney maintains the overall advantage in those states in large part because he has established bigger leads among the non-Tea Party wing of the party: among voters neutral or opposed to the Tea Party, Romney leads Cain 35-13 in Florida; 30-16 in Iowa; 39-8 in New Hampshire and 27-17 in South Carolina. In each case that's a larger advantage than Cain's edge among the Tea Party backers.

4. Part of Cain's problem is that Newt Gingrich attracts double-digit support from Tea Party voters in each state except New Hampshire, while Rick Perry reaches double digits among them in Florida and South Carolina. Apart from Cain, Romney's most consistent competitor for non-Tea Party voters is Ron Paul.

City Year co-founder Alan Khazei will announce on Thursday that he is ending his Senate bid, an adviser confirms.

Khazei adviser Scott Ferson said that the Democrat will announce at noon on Thursday that he is ending his bid. The news was first reported by the Boston Globe.

Due to his fundraising ability, Khazei was viewed as the second strongest candidate in the Democratic field. But consumer advocate and Harvard professor Elizabeth Warren is the clear frontrunner, and just raised over $3 million in the third fundraising quarter. Khazei acknowledged to the Globe that Warren's presence in the race has made it more difficult for him to raise money.

When asked if Khazei would be endorsing Warren on Thursday, Ferson said he did not believe he would.

Updated 4:44 p.m.

Rep. John Olver, D-Mass., will not seek reelection in 2012 - sparing Bay State Democrats from an uncomfortable situation next year as the state loses a seat in reapportionment.

Olver is the 14th House Democrat to announce his retirement this year. Seven of them are running for higher office. Only seven House Republicans are leaving Congress, with all of them running presidential, Senate or gubernatorial campaigns.

In announcing his decision, Olver said his family played a large role in his decision, too: his wife, Rose, was diagnosed with ovarian cancer earlier this year.

"Last December, I announced that I intended to seek to continue my congressional service beyond 2012. Over the past six months, circumstances within my family have substantially changed, and I now find I must reconsider my earlier decision," Olver said in a statement. "Therefore, I will retire from the House of Representatives at the conclusion of the current (112th) Congress."

Olver's seat is likely now going to be eliminated in redistricting. Olver faced a tough re-election, with his slow-growing western Massachusetts district already a prime target for Massachusetts mapmakers to reconfigure in redistricting. He had announced soon after last year's midterms that he intended to run again.

The 75 year-old Olver was first elected in a special election 1991, and hadn't faced a competitive race since 1996. If he ran again, he would have liked been matched up in a Democratic primary against fellow Western Massachusetts congressman Richard Neal or neighboring Rep. James McGovern, D-Mass.

Olver had told the Springfield Republican as recently as last week that he still planned to run for reelection.

"You know I'm running," said Olver. "My intent is to run. I'm operating on that basis."

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney leads in new CNN/Time polls of the first four states on the Republican presidential nominating calendar -- Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida -- though in Iowa and South Carolina, Herman Cain runs a close second.

Cain, the former CEO of Godfather's Pizza, runs second in each of the four states, and in three of the four states, Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, runs third.

Notably, the best that Texas Gov. Rick Perry can manage in any of the states is a tie for third.

From National Journal:

CAMPAIGN 2012 Cain Releases Financial Information

TECHNOLOGYHints of Solyndra? Dems Want Firm Investigated

CAMPAIGN 2012 Romney Targeted in Ad Onslaught

Taken collectively, the polls show that -- despite Cain's slight lead over Romney in some recent national polling -- Romney has the advantage in the four states that will most determine the direction of the GOP nominating process:

-- In Iowa, which will hold its caucuses on Jan. 3, Romney leads Cain, 24 percent to 21 percent -- within the margin of error. Paul was third, at 12 percent, followed by former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Perry, who both earned 10 percent. Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., who edged Paul in August's Iowa straw poll, was at only six percent.

The private plane that caused Sen. Claire McCaskill, D-Mo., to suffer multiple political headaches earlier this year has been sold.

The Kansas City Star reports McCaskill has made good on her promise to get rid of the plane. The aircraft was purchased for $1.9 million from McCaskill and her husband by Northeast Montana Stat Air Ambulance. McCaskill's spokesperson told the paper the senator took a loss on the deal.

The story, in itself does not make it any more or less likely that attacks against McCaskill on the issue will work next year. But it was another opportunity for Republicans to conjure up memories of the fallout from earlier this year, which the state party did in a statement.

It's hard to gauge precisely how big a campaign issue the plane will end up being in 2012, but it's certainly not going to disappear altogether. The early success of the Republican criticism against McCaskill was a reminder of the potency of attacks involving tangible objects viewed as luxury items, like planes, or expensive jewelry from Tiffany's.

In New Mexico Auditor Hector Balderas's latest attempt to appeal to Hispanic voters, the Democratic Senate underdog has penned an op-ed that appears today in Huffington Post Latino Voices and sharply criticizes Herman Cain's recent comments about building an electrified fence along the border.

"The Republicans running for president, and many running for other office (like Senate candidate Heather Wilson in New Mexico) have embraced a Tea Party agenda that will hurt many average Americans -- but will be particularly devastating to Hispanic Americans," Balderas writes.

Not many Democratic Senate candidates are rushing to make Cain the target of their larger criticism, so Balderas's decision is an interesting one. He uses Cain as a jumping-off point for a larger criticism of the impact of Republican policies on Hispanics.

The piece is a clear attempt by the Democrat to make further inroads with Hispanic voters and it's also an effort to make a splash in the national Democratic Hispanic community. If he's to have a chance in the Democratic primary, he'll need strong turnout and support from Hispanic voters.

Placement of an op-ed on a hot button issue in a national outlet read by liberals also looks like an effort to rev up fundraising, which was sluggish for the auditor during the last quarter. Democratic Rep. Martin Heinrich, the superior fundraiser in the race, had a considerably better fundraising period.

President Obama joined Jay Leno on "The Tonight Show" on Wednesday where he made fun of reality television, the first lady's obsession with fruit and his use of the teleprompter.

When Leno asked the president if he has been watching the GOP debates, Obama joked, "I'm gonna wait until everybody's voted off the island."

Don't miss today's Must See Moment at 2:41 where Jimmy Kimmel presents Herman Cain's new ad.

Take our late-night poll after the jump...

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Romney won't back Kasich on his budget reform measure in Ohio and he's not going all-in in Iowa, Elizabeth Warren's relationship with Occupy Wall Street draws attention, and there's nothing like a little MC Hammer nostalgia in the San Francisco mayor's race. Here's today's rundown:

10) Interim San Francisco Mayor Ed Lee is too legit to quit.

9) How closely is President Obama paying attention to the GOP presidential debates? Here's what he told Jay Leno: "I'm going to wait until everybody is voted off the island before ... once they narrow it down to one or two, I'll start paying attention."

8) The Boston Globe takes a closer look at whatElizabeth Warren's relationship with the Occupy Wall Street movement looks like. Her anti-Wall Street rhetoric has paralleled much of what the protesters are speaking out about. On the one hand, Warren has said she supports the movement; on the other, she has been careful to avoid images that could portray her as too close to the movement. Keep an eye on her interaction with the movement as time goes on for clues about where her campaign wants to be, politically.

President Obama's approval rating remains underwater in the key swing state of Ohio, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll released early Wednesday, but his most formidable challenger, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, now trails former Godfather's Pizza CEO Herman Cain for the Republican nomination.

Ohio Republicans may not have a large role in selecting the next GOP nominee, but Cain's rise in the Buckeye State is emblematic of his surge nationwide. In this Quinnipiac poll, Cain leads Romney, 28 percent to 23 percent.

The bottom has dropped out of Texas Gov. Rick Perry's campaign in the state. A month ago, he was at 20 percent, a hair behind Romney. Now, he is at just four percent; his 16-point drop was eclipsed by Cain's 21-point jump. Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich outpolled Perry in the survey.

In a three-way matchup between Cain, Perry and Romney, Cain leads with 40 percent. Romney earns 33 percent, and Perry captures just one-in-ten votes.

Romney, who was in southwest Ohio on Tuesday -- where he notably declined to comment on the Democratic-led effort to repeal an unpopular law that restricted collective bargaining for public employees -- still remains the Republican who fares best against Obama in a general election. He trails Obama, 45 percent to 41 percent. Cain trails the president by eight percentage points, and Perry is behind by nine points.

Romney leads Obama among independents by a small, seven-point margin. Cain and Obama run even among independents, while Perry trails Obama by five among that subgroup.

When he ended his Senate bid in September, Newton, Massachusetts Mayor Setti Warren made it pretty clear why he was dropping out: fellow Democratic candidate Elizabeth Warren.

But on Tuesday, he threw the consumer advocate his support.

"She has captured the imagination of Democrats nationally and here in Massachusetts," Setti Warren told the Newton TAB. "I believe strongly that Scott Brown needs to be beaten. I'm proud to support her in that effort."

"I believe that many people in the country have a tremendous amount of respect for the work she's done," he said.

When he left the race on September 29, Warren said that in the last days and weeks it became clear to him that he "faced overwhelming political and financial odds" and "I no longer believe I have a clear path to victory in this race."

Elizabeth Warren had entered the race weeks earlier. And the Newton Mayor wasn't the only one to quit the race in the wake of her entrance -- activist Bob Massie followed suit in early October, citing similar reasons.

Elizabeth Warren has pulled far away from the rest of the Democratic field in terms of fundraising, raking in $3.15 million during the third quarter.

The Warrens will be together for an official endorsement announcement on Thursday.

Herman Cain's senior adviser Mark Block is attracting a lot of attention today for a campaign video he appears in for the GOP presidential candidate. At the end of the out of the ordinary video, Block takes a puff of a cigarette.

But while his unorthodox video is earning a lot of buzz, Block's spin doesn't quite square with Iowa smoking laws.

This afternoon on Fox News's America Live, Block said this: "You walk into a veterans' bar in Iowa, and they're sitting around smoking, and we are resonating with them."

Not quite.

In 2008, Iowa lawmakers passed legislation that prohibited smoking in, among other places, bars.

Oct. 26 update: Another addition to our running "running" tally - neighboring Rep. Earl Blumenauer, D-Ore., also employed the same tactic in an ad in his own special election back in 1996. In fact, the two men are even dressed alike in a blue top and black running pants. Daily Kos pointed out this morning that part of the Cornilles ad was actually shot in Blumenauer's 3rd District, not the 1st. Cornilles campaign manager Mary Anne Ostrom said that it's only the last few second of the ad that were shot in the 3rd - across the Willamette River so that the camera could capture the 1st District's skyscape.

Sometimes, politicians take the "running" for office thing quite literally.

Republican Rob Cornilles went up with his first TV ad on Tuesday, a 30-second introductory spot just ahead of the November 8 GOP primary in the special election in Oregon's 1st District. In the ad, the 2010 GOP nominee and sports management consultant jogs through neighborhoods, through a forest, past vacant businesses, finally pausing along Portland skyline.

"Sending more politicians to DC won't change things," says Cornilles, not even out of breath. "I'm running for Congress because we can do better."

Cornilles, who's likely to have an easy path in the Nov. 8 primary to face the winner of the more competitive Democratic primary next January, isn't the first candidate to hope that maybe voters will see their endurance on the running trail will translate to success with voters on the campaign trail.

In his first run for president, Mitt Romney had a similar ad, showing him jogging through the a forest -- and breathing quite heavily -- as the narrator boasts of the job the former Massachusetts governor did in turning around the Salt Lake City Olympics. "Mitt Romney: The energy and experience to turn around Washington," is the ad's tagline.

And in the 2008 congressional race in the then-open Minnesota's 3rd District, Iraq War veteran Ashwin Madia also used the same tactic in his ultimately unsuccessful bid against now-GOP Rep. Erik Paulsen, talking about his time in the Marines and ties to the community as he runs past.

In 2010, now Sen. Kelly Ayotte, R-N.H., also ran in ad which featured her out on a run. "On a good run, I get to reflect on what you've been telling me," Ayotte said in the ad.

See the full run-down of ads after the jump.

3:31 p.m. Update: The Cruz campaign notes that the Dallas Morning News story was not the first instance in which Cruz specified that his father came to the U.S. before Castro took power. He has said before, including during his speech at the Republican Leadership Conference this year, that his father arrived in Texas in 1957.

If you're Ted Cruz, running in a competitive GOP Senate primary in Texas, the constant parallels to Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., are welcome. Most of the time.

The Dallas Morning News takes a closer look at the timing of Cruz's father's trip from Cuba to the U.S. Cruz has says, after being asked, that his father left Cuba in 1957, before Castro took power.

No one is accusing Cruz of misrepresenting anything. Cruz has said before that his father fought on the same side as Castro. But Liberty Institute President Kelly Shackelford -- also a Cruz supporter -- introduced the former state solicitor general at the recent Values Voter Summit and said his father "escaped Castro."

More than anything else, the story is an interesting anecdote about how pols with compelling personal narratives will likely come under heavier scrutiny, in light of the recent revelation that the timing of Rubio's parents' journey, as previously written in his Senate biography, was inaccurate.

In West Virginia next year, there's a Senate race and a gubernatorial race -- and still zero Republican candidates.

Now, Mike Stuart, the state GOP chair, can be crossed off the list of possibilities. The Charleston Daily Mail reports that Stuart said he's not running for office next year.

"I do not intend to be a candidate for public office in 2012," Stuart said in an email. "I am confident, however, that incredible candidates that reflect my urgency to change direction and build a more positive future will emerge as the West Virginia Republican Party offers an alternative to our failed economic history and the status quo."

Republican Businessman Bill Maloney, who fought his way to a close second in October's gubernatorial race, has said a decision on running again in 2012 may be months away. He's currently on a mine safety tour around the state.

As of now, though, neither Gov.-elect Earl Ray Tomblin and or Sen. Joe Manchin have a Republican challenger for the 2012 race.

In an age of trackers, YouTube and Twitter, it isn't difficult for a candidate's detractors to quickly post his or her sound bites online with the hopes of spreading a negative message like wildfire. In Massachusetts, a nasty sound bite war is already underway on a level not yet seen in other races so far this cycle. And it says something about the direction the race is headed.

During the past month alone, we've seen allies of both Sen. Scott Brown, R-Mass., and consumer advocate and Harvard professor Elizabeth Warren launch attacks against the opposing side on the basis of comments made in interviews, press availabilities and debates.

During an Oct. 6 radio interview, Brown was asked to respond to Warren's quip at a debate two days prior in which she said, "I kept my clothes on," when asked how she paid for college, referring to the fact that Brown posed shirtless for Cosmopolitan. The senator's sarcastic "Thank God" response received far more coverage than Warren's initial comment, and was the subject of days of ire from women's groups and liberals.

Later in October, Republicans pounced on Warren after she jokingly said she planned to seek the "hick vote," and (also jokingly) referred to herself as an elite hick, as she highlighted two popular Republican lines of attack against her: that she is an out-of-touch Cambridge academic and out-of-stater, originally from Oklahoma.

On Monday, Republicans distributed footage of Warren in Western Massachusetts saying "you're not as landlocked as some parts of the state," claiming a lack of basic state geographic knowledge on her part.

It's not uncommon for state parties and campaigns to try to sully the opposing candidate by distributing video and audio clips that can be spun negatively. But the amount of coverage -- both nationally and in-state -- garnered by the Massachusetts race has been higher than what we've seen elsewhere.

Presidential candidate Jon Huntsman was a guest on "The Colbert Report" on Monday where he asked host Stephen Colbert in Mandarin if he would join his hypothetical presidential ticket.

Don't miss today's Must See Moment at 1:51 where Herman Cain reveals an intimate detail of his past:

Take our late-night poll after the jump...

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Perry's is set to unveil his flat tax plan (but keeps making news about the Obama birther issue), Lingle calls herself a RINO, Berkley is at odds with one of her donors, and Herman Cain's out with a smoking hot new video. Here's today's rundown:

10) The New York Times takes a closer look this morning at the GOP online rapid response operation and finds that Republican House members have more than twice as many followers as Democratic House members -- about 1.3 million to Democrats' 600,000 -- and are much more active on Twitter with more than 157,000 individual messages, compared to about 62,000 for Democrats.

9) Former Hawaii Gov. Linda Lingle isn't afraid to be called a Republican-In-Name-Only, as she tries to win a Senate seat in one of the most Democratic states in the country. In Las Vegas at the Western Republican Leadership Conference, Lingle said: ""I've been called a RINO before, which I don't mind...There are a lot of people who support these RINOs, whether it's me or [former New York Mayor] Rudy Giuliani or [former New Jersey Gov.] Christine Todd Whitman."

In an interview with The Hill, she said that Republicans in Washington fully expect her to be an independent operator. Lingle: "I was very upfront with them as they talked to me about this race and recruited me to enter. I wanted them to understand that what they were getting if they got me was not what they were getting maybe from a candidate in another state."

8) If you haven't seen Herman Cain's camapign video featuring Mark Block, his chief of staff, it's worth a look. At the 40-second mark, a shot of Block smoking is the highlight. When he headed the National Restaurant Association in the late- 1990s, Cain lobbied against smoking bans in restaurants.

The Republican presidential primary field remains extremely fluid, according to a new CBS News/New York Times poll released early Tuesday that also shows that, despite his missteps over the past two weeks, Herman Cain remains at or near the top of the GOP field.

Cain leads former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in the poll, 25 percent to 21 percent -- within the poll's margin of error. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich was third, at 10 percent, followed by Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, at 8 percent.

Texas Gov. Rick Perry was well back in fifth place, with just six percent of the vote. But while Perry has slipped in the horse-race -- a little over a month ago, he led the GOP field in CBS News polling -- the new survey shows that he does have an opportunity to get back into the race.

Of those likely Republican primary voters who expressed a choice in the election matchup -- not including undecided voters -- 80 percent said they had not fully made up their mind. That means that more that four-in-five GOP voters are still weighing their options.

The poll of 455 likely GOP primary voters was conducted Oct. 19-24. The margin of error is +/- 4.6 percent.

A majority of Ohio voters favor repealing a recent law that limits collective bargaining rights for public employees, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll released Tuesday. A referendum on the Republican-backed measure, known as Senate Bill 5, appears on the statewide ballot next month. Fifty-seven percent of voters surveyed said they think the law should be repealed, while 32 percent said it should be kept.

The poll finds the support for the bill fractured along party lines. Fifty-nine percent of Republicans said the law should be kept, and 32 percent said it should be repealed. Conversely, 77 percent of Democrats said the law should be repealed, while just 13 percent said it should be kept. Independent voters sided more closely with Democrats, with 56 percent saying the law should be repealed and 32 percent saying it should be kept.

Support for repealing SB 5 is broad and deep, with majorities of more traditionally Republican subgroups favoring repeal: Male voters (54 percent), non-union households (52 percent), white voters (54 percent) and white, born-again evangelical voters (51 percent).

Some elements of the bill are popular, according to the poll, such as a requirement that public employees would have to pay at least 15 percent of their insurance premiums and 10 percent of their pensions. But, overall, 56 percent of voters oppose the law, and 57 percent believe it is not necessary to help balance the state budget.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is bringing over 100 of its top recruits to Washington on Wednesday for a day of training and meeting with top Democratic officials as they prepare their candidates for next year's election cycle in their hopes of taking back the House.

The 107 candidates from 36 different states are part of the DCCC's diverse recruiting class that DCCC Chairman Steve Israel and DCCC Recruiting Chairwoman Allyson Schwartz have helped assemble. The class includes farmers, businessmen and women, former mayors, veterans and even a former astronaut.

Among the candidates expected are former Iowa First Lady Christie Vilsack, running the 4th District against Rep. Steve King, R-Iowa; Army veteran Brendan Mullen, running for the open Indiana 2nd District seat against 2010 GOP nominee Jackie Walorski, whom he outraised last quarter; former astronaut Jose Hernandez, who just announced against freshman Rep. Jeff Denham, R-Calif., in the new 10th District; businessman Jamie Wall, who's challenging freshman Rep. Reid Ribble, R-Wis., in the 8th District; former state Rep. Pam Gulleson, running for North Dakota's open at-large seat; physician Raul Ruiz, running against Rep. Mary Bono Mack, R-Calif., in the new 36th District; former Orlando Police Chief Val Demings, running against freshman Rep. Daniel Webster, R-Fla., in the 8th District; and former U.S. Attorney Rob Wallace, running in Oklahoma's open 2nd District seat to succeed retiring Rep. Dan Boren, D-Okla.

On the candidates' agenda: a reception for the DCCC's Women LEAD program, policy discussions on economics and national security, media training with former White House Communications Director Anita Dunn, and a presentation by both Israel and Schwartz.

Former New Hampshire Democratic Senate Majority Leader Maggie Hassan will make her gubernatorial bid official on Tuesday, a Democratic source familiar with her thinking tells Hotline On Call.

Hassan had previously filed to create an exploratory committee, so her official entrance into the race is not a surprise. She served in the Senate from 2004-2010 and is expected to be a serious contender for the Democratic nomination.

But she's unlikely to have the field all to herself. The New Hampshire Union-Leader has reported that other Democrats also considering the open race include former state Sen. Jackie Cilley, former Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand, current Portsmouth Mayor Tom Ferrini and former director of the Bureau of Securities Regulation Mark Connolly,

On the GOP side, Ovide Lamontagne, a well-known conservative who ran for the Senate in 2010 is the only candidate officially in the race. Kevin Smith, a conservative activist, is also considering running. Smith recently stepped down as executive director of Cornerstone Action and Policy Research.

While presidential candidates Herman Cain and Texas Gov. Rick Perry have allied themselves with flat tax proposals, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has walked fine line on the issue, warning against proposals that could hurt middle class taxpayers, but stopping short of an all-out assault on the idea of a flat tax. While Romney's posture has sparked cries of flip-flopping, a close review of his past positions reveals the former governor is actually displaying remarkable consistency on this issue.

Romney placed anti-flat tax advertisements in Iowa, New Hampshire and Massachusetts newspapers in 1996, when Steve Forbes was starting to gain steam in the Republican presidential race. The full-page ad, which bears Romney's signature at the bottom, took issue with the lack of investment taxes in Forbes's flat tax proposal, painting the plan as a tax cut for the wealthy ("Kennedys, Rockefellers, and Forbes") and an increase for "you."

Even as Romney stood against Forbes's proposal, the former governor was careful to say that he was not against all flat tax proposals. Consider what he said at the time to the Boston Globe, one of the newspapers to run the ad: "There are a number of flat tax proposals around that would be better than the tax system we have now. But if all we talk about is the Steve Forbes proposal we'll just cement in people's minds the notion that the Republican Party is the party of the rich."

Compare that with Romney's statements on the campaign trail this year and there's not much difference. The New York Times quotes Romney saying "I love a flat tax" in August, and he told a town hall audience that "the flat tax has positive features" recently. But Romney has consistently tempered that sentiment with a note of caution about the ultimate results of such a move. The next words out of Romney's mouth at the town hall were, "You have to make sure it doesn't raise taxes on middle-income Americans." Romney also warned that getting rid of deductions, like the one on home mortgages, in one massive tax code rewrite would cause "pretty dramatic changes" for the middle class.

Former Alabama Rep. Artur Davis, an African-American Democrat who was one of President Obama's close allies in Congress, wrote an op-ed in his hometown paper acknowledging voter fraud in his home state - and supporting voter-identification laws to crack down on such abuses.

"When I was a congressman, I took the path of least resistance on this subject for an African American politician. Without any evidence to back it up, I lapsed into the rhetoric of various partisans and activists who contend that requiring photo identification to vote is a suppression tactic aimed at thwarting black voter participation," Davis wrote in the Montgomery Advertiser.

"The truth is that the most aggressive contemporary voter suppression in the African American community, at least in Alabama, is the wholesale manufacture of ballots, at the polls and absentee, in parts of the Black Belt."

Davis is one of the very few Democrats to support the politically-charged issue of requiring stricter photo identification for voters before they can cast a ballot. Democrats have equated many of the laws being implemented or debated as akin to voter suppression - a charge that, in the South, evokes painful memories of Jim Crow-era disenfranchisement of blacks.

Several states have already passed laws requiring voter ID, including Davis' home state of Alabama, Wisconsin, South Carolina and Texas.

Davis' connections to Obama -- and his background as one of the few Democrats to break the party line on voter ID -- make his comments all the more notable.

The debate over voter identification laws are heating up in the run-up to the 2012 presidential election. Democrats are depending on high turnout among minorities, especially in a handful of battleground states, and oppose measures that they claim would make it harder for voters to obtain a state-issued photo identification.

"This idea that there is some massive class of African-Americans who don't have conventional IDs -- I don't think that's accurate. I think that actually in some cases can be a little bit patronizing," Davis told Hotline On Call. "I am certainly tired of seeing the issue demagogued and I am tired of seeing the allegation made that anybody who wants more transparency in voting is trying to keep African-Americans from voting."

Sen. Joseph Lieberman, I-Conn., sure has a lot of kind words for Linda McMahon and former GOP Rep. Chris Shays in a New York Times story out today about his impact on the Connecticut Senate race.

Lieberman met with McMahon and Shays, he tells the Times, calling the former "bright and likable," and saying he "encouraged" the latter.

While he still caucuses with the Democrats, Lieberman is no stranger to ruffling feathers in the party, having backed Sen. John McCain's, R-Ariz., presidential campaign in 2008 and upping the Democratic stress level during the health care debate.

In a Democratic primary -- especially one in which the candidates are moving to the left and Rep. Chris Murphy is the early frontrunner -- it's unlikely Lieberman's endorsement would be all that helpful. In fact, it could have the opposite effect.

A September Quinnipiac University poll showed that while Lieberman's approval rating stood at 51 percent (with 40 percent disapproving) there was a disparity between voters in different parties. Majorities of Republican (66 percent) and independent (52 percent) voters approved of Lieberman's job performance while Democrats were split, with 44 percent approving and 46 percent disapproving.

In the general election however, Lieberman's centrist cred could be a boost, especially if the nominee is McMahon. A Shays endorsement, however, would seem natural, given Lieberman's longstanding friendship with the former congressman. If Murphy ends up as the Democratic nominee, don't hold your breath waiting for Lieberman to play nice: Murphy backed Democrat Ned Lamont's 2006 bid against the senator.

Bill Maher on Friday called President Obama a "bad-ass, Ninja, black president" while celebrating the death of Muammar el-Qaddafi.

"So far this year [Obama has] killed Somali pirates, he killed bin Laden, he killed al-Awlaki," Maher said on "Real Time." "The only threat to our way of life now is Bank of America."

Take our late-night poll after the jump...

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Nevada officially moves its caucuses back to Feb. 4, President Obama heads west with a new campaign pitch, Romney defends Rubio and Artur Davis changes his mind about voter ID laws. Here's today's rundown:

7) Donald Trump recently had dinner with Texas Gov. Rick Perry. According to an interview Perry did with Parade Magazine, the issue of President Obama's birth certificate was among the topics of discussion. Perry says Trump still doesn't believe the president's birth certificate is real. As for Perry himself? Perry said he has "no reason to think otherwise" but when asked if he has seen Obama's birth certificate, says "I don't know. Have I?" Check out the full exchange here.

6) Just how decisive was Louisiana Republican Gov. Bobby Jindal's reelection victory on Saturday? He won nearly 66 percent of the vote -- the highest ever won by a candidate under the open primary system. Jindal won all 64 parishes.

Jindal's victory was the highlight in Republican's total dominance of the statewide elections. Of the seven statewide races, there weren't any Democrats running in four of them. In the three others, each of the Republican victor won over 66 percent of the vote. Republicans increased their majority in the state Senate from 22-17 to 24-15, and are expected to significantly increase their majority in the state House -- after the runoffs are complete.

5) Add Mitt Romney to the list of people defending Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., in the wake of the Washington Post story scrutinizing his narrative of when his family left Cuba.

4) Former Rep. Artur Davis, D-Ala., has changed his mind about voter ID laws, writing in a Montgomery Advertiser op-ed that Alabama did the right thing by passing one. Money quote from Davis: "Voting the names of the dead, and the nonexistent, and the too-mentally-impaired to function, cancels out the votes of citizens who are exercising their rights -- that's suppression by any light. If you doubt it exists, I don't; I've heard the peddlers of these ballots brag about it, I've been asked to provide the funds for it, and I am confident it has changed at least a few close local election results.

Davis, a former African-American congressman whose name was once mentioned in the mix of potential candidates for Attorney General under Obama, becomes one of the few Democrats to favor such measures.

(Updated 11:52 p.m. ET)

Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal easily won reelection Saturday, amassing a sufficient majority to secure a second term without a runoff and solidifying his status as a rising star within the national Republican party

The Associated Press declared Jindal the victor an hour after Lousiana polls closed. With 98 percent of precincts reporting, he was cruising to victory with 66 percent of the vote. His next nearest opponent in the 10-person field of gubernatorial candidates, schoolteacher Tara Hollis, a Democrat, had 18 percent.

The son of Indian immigrants, Jindal, 40, represents the new face of the GOP. Last year, there was considerable speculation that he might enter the 2012 race for president, but Jindal opted to endorse his neighboring governor, Rick Perry of Texas, instead.

He amassed a huge campaign war chest,entering the final weeks of the race with more than $6 million in the bank.

On the campaign trail, Jindal touted a series of policy victories, from ethics reforms to the state's improving economic status. The statewide unemployment rate fell to 6.9 percent at the end of September, well below the national average.

Jindal's huge margin of victory did not come as a surprise, but it emphasizes his vote-getting prowess as the chief executive of a state that Democrats once dominated.

What we at The Hotline learned this week:

-- It's the most wonderful time of the year: Nevada Republicans voted Saturday to move their caucuses back to February, thus keeping the Granite State happy and preserving Iowa's January 3 caucus date. But a January 12 debate had to be moved back to December in Iowa, meaning three debates will now take place in less than ten days in the state during the final month of the year. That's good for Mitt Romney, the best debater in the field.

-- Just call New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner king. Or bully. Or whatever other anti-superlatives Nevada columnists would like to call him. The fact of the matter is Gardner successfully forced not just Nevada's GOP leaders but also the Republican National Committee's leaders to supporting his stance that Nevada move its caucuses back to February 4. There's a reason the Democrat wins reappointment every two years, even by Republican legislators.

-- It's understandable that Romney would approach Iowa cautiously this time around after feeling snakebitten by the Hawkeye State in 2008, when he invested considerable time and money into the leadoff caucuses only to be rewarded with a campaign-crippling second place finish. But 2012 is not 2008, and as shrewd as Romney was to spend the summer months downplaying his prospects in Iowa, he'd be equally foolish not to throw caution to the wind at this point and move in for the kill over the next two months.

The political situation in Iowa constitutes the perfect storm for Romney, with the conservative vote split among several less capable candidate, none of whom boast a competitive ground game in the state. If Romney goes all-in, he's got a good shot at winning Iowa - and if he wins Iowa, it'll be tough for anyone to stop him from clinching the nomination.

Former South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford will join Fox News as a contributor, the network confirmed on Friday.

A Fox spokesperson said Sanford will start in the coming weeks, and confirmed that he will be present at the network's January 16 debate in Myrtle Beach, S.C. The network would not elaborate on the role Sanford will play at that debate.

Sanford was widely considered a potential Republican presidential candidate before it became public in June 2009 that he had made several secret trips to Argentina to carry on an affair with Maria Belen Chapur, a woman he called his "soul mate." At the time, his staff famously claimed that he had been hiking on the Appalachian Trail.

The New York Times first reported the news of Sanford's hire by Fox.

When the election results are released Saturday night in the Louisiana's gubernatorial race, the question won't be whether Republican Gov. Bobby Jindal won reelection, but by how wide a margin.

Jindal needs more than 50 percent of the votes cast in this weekend's primary election to win the race outright. The fact that Louisiana Democrats failed to recruit a serious candidate means that an outright win for Jindal is a virtual lock.

Schoolteacher Tara Hollis is considered the strongest of Jindal's nine opponents. Hollis pitches herself as a conservative Democrat who voted for Jindal in 2007, but grew disenchanted with the governor over education cuts. She raised a minimal amount of money and has little chance of winning enough votes to force a runoff.

The inability of state Democrats to field a more credible opponent is part of a larger trend of struggling Democratic fortunes across the South. Term-limited state Sen. Rob Marionneaux considered challenging Jindal, but ultimately decided he wouldn't have the resources to compete.

Jindal posted massive fundraising numbers throughout the race, scaring any potentially formidable challengers from jumping in. Earlier this month, he reported still having more than $6 million in the bank. His fundraising prowess, combined with a series of first term policy victories and the overall decline of the state Democratic Party, made a second term a foregone conclusion.

Polls close at 9 p.m. ET. Stay tuned to Hotline On Call for results.

Vice President Biden will take time off from touring the country promoting President Obama's jobs plan to appear on "State of the Union" this Sunday, where he will continue talking about the jobs plan. Biden has come under fire in recent days for comments he made, claiming that if the jobs bill is not passed, rape and murder rates will skyrocket.

Biden will be followed by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who will talk about his own party's jobs plan and respond to Biden's comments. McConnell's promise that his number one focus in this Congress would be making Obama a one-term president was a major Democratic talking point on TV this week in the lead-up to last night's vote on the jobs bill.

Many of the Sunday shows are focusing on this week's major international news, with the death of Libyan Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi and Obama's announcement that he will withdraw all of the troops from Iraq by the end of the year. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who was in Islamabad, Pakistan, Friday, following a surprise trip to Libya earlier this week, was a late addition on "Fox News Sunday," "Meet The Press" and "This Week." Meanwhile, CNN's Fareed Zakaria scored an exclusive interview with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad that will air live, in part, Friday at 10:30 p.m. on CNN International and in full on CNN's "Fareed Zakaria GPS" on Sunday.

And for the first time in three weeks, businessman Herman Cain will not be featured on any of the Sunday shows. However, his interview prior to the CNN Western Republican Leadership Conference Debate with CNN's Wolf Blitzer will be re-aired on "The Situation Room."

Get the full listings after the jump.

An Iowa presidential deabte begin co-sponsored by The Des Moines Register and PBS Newshour has been rescheduled for December 19, the paper announced Friday.

The debate was originally scheduled for January 12, in Johnston, Iowa, but had to be moved after the state Republican party selected January 3rd for their first-in-the-nation caucuses.

The original target date for the Iowa caucuses was February 3. But Florida's decision to hold its primary on January 31 threw the early state calendar into a state of upheaval, prompting Iowa to move up into early January.

The debate, at 4 p.m. EST, will conclude a jam-packed month of debates in the state: An ABC News/Iowa Republican Party debate is lsated for December 10 in Des Moines and a Fox News/Iowa Republican Party debate will be held in Sioux City on December 15.

The Dec. 19 debate will be held in partnership with Google, YouTube and Iowa Public Television. PBS News' Judy Woodruff will be the host.

One of 2010's most controversial attack ads is back in 2011. And it's being used against the candidate who launched it last year.

Nationally, Kentucky Attorney General Jack Conway is best known for his 2010 Democratic Senate campaign that fell short against now Republican Sen. Rand Paul. But Conway's running for reelection this year, and his GOP opponent is referencing a commercial the Democrat's 2010 campaign used to attack Paul's religious views.

Conway ran an ad late in the 2010 race that featured a narrator asking, "Why did Rand Paul once tie a woman up, tell her to bow down before a false idol, and say his God was 'Aqua Buddha'?" The reference was to a GQ profile of Paul that included anecdotes about a secret society the Republican belonged to in college.

Paul was furious over the ad, which appeared to backfire against Conway, who lost the race. Now, Republican Todd P'Pool, who is challenging Conway, is up with an ad of his own referencing the incident.

"Jack Conway and his liberal allies are lying again. After attacking Sen. Paul and embarrassing Kentucky nationally, now they lie about another good man, Todd P'Pool," the narrator of the 30-second spot says as the words "Aqua Buddha Ad" appears on screen, along with a screenshot of Conway's 2010 ad.

From our piece in this week's National Journal magazine:

Herman Cain, an African-American former pizza-chain executive who has never held elected office, sits atop the polls in the race for the Republican presidential nomination. Most people never saw it coming, but perhaps they should have.

Cain's rise in the polls has been fueled primarily by the tea party, a movement that--intentionally or not--has diversified the Republican Party, helping to elect a string of high-profile minorities who have become national stars on the right. And it wasn't easy. The emergence of conservative sensations such as Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., and Cain took place in the face of active resistance from the Republican establishment.

After the 2010 wave election, Republicans saw the number of minorities in their ranks in Congress and governors' mansions jump from three to 14. And most of these candidates, from Rep. Tim Scott and Gov. Nikki Haley in South Carolina to Rep. Raul Labrador in Idaho, caught a tailwind of antiestablishment fervor.

The biggest roadblocks to these challengers often were within their own party. The unlikely rise of Rubio is the exemplar. The son of Cuban immigrants and the former Florida House speaker, Rubio ran against Charlie Crist, then the state's Republican governor and a well-known, well-financed pol who enjoyed deep establishment ties. Upon kicking off his campaign in May 2009, Crist was bestowed with the apotheosis of an establishment endorsement when he received the blessing of the National Republican Senatorial Committee.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Rubio faces questions about the timing of his parents' exile from Cuba, the Senate rejects Obama's jobs bill once again, Congressional Democrats outraise Republicans in September, and Steve Jobs, just before his death, had a harsh warning for the president. Here's today's rundown:

8) Not a smart thing to tweet, especially if you are running for office: "Women, you increase your odds of keeping your men by being faithful, a lady in the living room and a whore in the bedroom." That's from New Jersey Republican state Senate candidate Phil Mitsch in September.

He finally apologized on Thursday, saying he was sorry and offered this explanation: 'My mother said in order to keep a man, you must be a maid in the living room, a cook in the kitchen, and a whore in the bedroom. I updated her quote with the fact that men should 'be faithful, a gentleman in the living room and a stud in the bedroom,' but looking back, I didn't update the original terminology enough to reflect 21st century sensibilities." We'll see how it's received on Election Day. The Philadelphia Inquirer has all the details.

7) The Huffington Post has some juicy tidbits on a forthcoming biography of the late Apple CEO Steve Jobs, who recently passed away from pancreatic cancer. According to the book, Jobs almost missed meeting President Obama in the fall of 2010 because he insisted that the president personally ask him for a meeting. Jobs told Obama that he was "headed for a one-term presidency."

6) The DSCC outraised the NRSC in September, bringing in $4.53 million to the NRSC's $3.42 million. The DSCC finished the month with $10.9 million in the bank, while the NRSC ended with $6.8 million and no debt. The DSCC did not disclose the level of debt it was carrying. The DCCC also comfortably outraised the NRCC in September, raising $6.64 million compared to the NRCC's $3.8 million.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee outraised the National Republican Congressional Committee during September by nearly $3 million, and also bested the GOP during the third fundraising quarter, according to spending reports filed Thursday evening with the Federal Election Commission.

The DCCC raised $6.64 million last month, compared to the NRCC's $3.8 million. Even out of the House majority, the Democratic House campaign arm also raised more during the past three months, bringing in $14.22 million to the NRCC's $10.68 million.

Republicans still have the cash on hand edge, though. The NRCC still has $12.17 million in the bank, while the DCCC has $9.46 million left to spend during the final quarter of 2011.

Democrats continue to significantly reduce their once crippling $19 million debt they held after their election losses last year, now holding only $2 million on debt, roughly on par with the GOP's $1.5 million. And the Democrats have also raised more total this year, bringing in $47.9 million to the NRCC's $44.18 million.

With all eyes on the deficit-reduction super committee, members of Congress surveyed for this week's National Journal Congressional Insiders Poll expressed ambivalence about the secrecy of the committee's work and the likely result if the committee fails to produce a deficit plan by its Nov. 23 deadline.

Mitt Romney's campaign proudly touted the launch of careerpolitician.com Thursday, a website attacks Texas Gov. Rick Perry's record. While the Romney campaign announced careerpolitician.com as new website, a review of the site's registration reveals that its owner in fact registered the domain name several years ago.

According to the GoDaddy.com registration of the domain name, careerpolitician.com, was purchased on March 24th, 2007 and expires on that date in 2013. The registry was recently updated on Sept. 8th, 2011.

The intended target might have originally been Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., or even then Sen. Sam Brownback, R-Kan., in 2007. It's hard to say for certain, however, since the website was never launched; though the owner kept the registration active.

The website features a one minute web ad focusing on Perry's job record in Texas, points to the state's unemployment rate and the estimates that nearly half of new jobs are going to illegal immigrants.

The Romney campaign would not return a request for comment on the matter.

Updated at 6:27 a.m. on Oct. 21

When he entered the presidential race, Texas Gov. Rick Perry seemed poised to dominate in the Southern states, where voters shared a cultural connection with Perry. But as Perry's poll numbers have plummeted nationally, there are fresh signs he's losing significant ground with his geographic base.

An NBC-Marist Poll released Wednesday underscored how badly the Texas governor is faring in South Carolina - a state critical to his nomination prospects. Only 10 percent of South Carolina voters supported him, far behind businessman Herman Cain (31 percent) and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (28 percent).

The dismal showing in what should be one of his strongest states is a stark warning for Perry, whose path to the nomination all but requires him to win South Carolina. About 60 percent of Republicans identify themselves as evangelicals in South Carolina, according to exit polls, and they're the type of voters Perry thought he'd easily win over. But those voters have, at least for now, have flocked to Cain, who is from Georgia. In the NBC/Marist poll, Perry doesn't do any better among conservatives than moderates, winning only eight percent of those who identify as "very conservative."

"We thought he was one of us," said Warren Tompkins, a veteran South Carolina Republican strategist who is unaffiliated in this race, but consulted for Romney in 2008. "He's from Texas, and we've had good experiences with Texans with the Bush family. He was a conservative, a straight-shooter.

"It seemed on paper, he fit the bill," he said.

Fox News will co-sponsor two additional Republican presidential debates, one in Iowa and another in South Carolina, the network announced on Thursday.

Fox will host an Iowa debate on December 15 in conjunction with the Iowa Republican Party. The network will carry the debate -- its second for the cycle -- live at 9 p.m. EST from the Sioux City Convention Center. It follows a December 10 ABC News debate in Des Moines.

Fox News will host its third debate of the cycle at 9 p.m. EST on January 16 in Myrtle Beach, S.C., also in cooperation with the state Republican Party. It will be the second of three debates that week, following the Des Moines Register's debate in Johnston, Iowa, on January 12. On the 19th, CNN will host the Southern Republican Leadership Conference debate in Charleston, S.C.

Both Fox News debates will be moderated by Special Report host Bret Baier and will be streamed live on YouTube, according to the network.

Fox's September 22 debate in Orlando, Fla., during the Presidency 5 convention, remains the top-rated debate this cycle and averaged 6.1 million viewers.

In states that allow citizen initiatives on the ballot, the petition and campaign process is a big business for consultants, especially in off years. Look no farther than my home state of Washington, where wholesaler Costco has crushed the record for most money spent on a political campaign in the state.

Costco is backing an initiative that would allow private retail stores to sell liquor. The measure would mean big bucks for the Issaquah-based corporation, and they're investing heavily in the race. So far, Costco has spent nearly $20 million on their side of the initiative, according to campaign finance numbers crunched today by The Oregonian's Jeff Mapes.

Opponents of the measure have raised and spent about $11.4 million so far, making the race far and away the most expensive ever run in Washington State.

It's part of an ongoing trend in which the price of a ballot initiative is spiking dramatically. States that allow ballot initiatives require a certain number of signatures to get on the ballot, and backers of the various measures are willing to pay for those signatures. Going rates these days can be as high as $5 for a valid signature in an initiative-heavy state like California.

That means there's an entire sub-industry of professional signature gatherers who spend their time, usually on the West Coast, standing outside high-traffic areas (like, say, Costco) asking voters to sign papers.

And here's an irony: Costco's CEO, Jim Sinegal, is one of the biggest donors to Democratic causes in Washington State. But his company is using Winner & Mandabach, a Republican firm specializing in ballot initiatives based in California, to run the race.

If you're a political consultant in these rough economic times, you could do a lot worse than getting into the initiative business.

The Connecticut Mirror takes a closer look at Republican Linda McMahon's efforts to reach out to women voters, a demographic she struggled with mightily in 2010.

McMahon is currently on a statewide tour recognizing women in business. And it's not difficult to see why she is placing a priority early on making inroads with women. When she ran against now Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn., in 2010, McMahon struggled to attract the support of women. According to a 2010 national exit poll conducted by Edison/Mitofsky, Blumenthal won 59 percent of women, while McMahon took just 40 percent.

In October of 2010, the New York Times took a closer look at McMahon's struggles. Many of the women interviewed for the NYT story did not like the attacks McMahon was leveling at Blumenthal and her involvement in professional wrestling.

A September 2011 Quinnipiac University poll showed the McMahon still faces a tough challenge this election cycle. In head-to head matchups against Democratic candidates, the results were not encouraging for her. Rep. Chris Murphy led McMahon among women by 20 points, 53 percent to 33 percent, while former Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz led McMahon 49 percent to 34 percent. In a Republican primary head to head matchup in the same poll, McMahon did lead former Rep. Chris Shays 47 percent to 32 percent.

Updated, 12:43 p.m.

Rep. Dennis Cardoza, D-Calif., announced his retirement from Congress this afternoon -- and he issued a scathing parting shot at President Obama's track record on his way out.

In a statement explaining his decision, Cardoza, a leader of the centrist Blue Dog Coalition, said he was "dismayed" by the administration's "failure to understand and effectively address the current housing foreclosure crisis."

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"Home foreclosures are destroying communities and crushing our economy, and the Administration's inaction is infuriating," Cardoza said.

A former chairman of the moderate Blue Dog Caucus, Cardoza also bemoaned the increasing partisanship in Washington, and blamed the media for fueling the ideological divide in the country, not giving enough attention to moderates.

(RELATED: Who else is leaving Congress?)

Cardoza is the sixth member -- all Democrats -- to announce plans to retire outright so far. He's also the third member of the Blue Dog Caucus to head for the exits -- joining fellow moderate Reps. Dan Boren, D-Okla., and Mike Ross, D-Ark.

The five-term congressman had become an increasingly-vocal critic of his own party's leadership in recent months, fueled by the skyrocketing unemployment in his Central Valley district. He's previously criticized the administration on its handling of the foreclosure crisis - but it's rare to see a departing congressman blast the president in an official statement.

Given his growing dissatisfaction with his party, Cardoza's departure didn't come as a surprise to Democrats, but his sharp criticism of Obama is bound to sting at the White House, which has already seeing many members of his own party, particularly those in battleground states and districts, keeping their distance.

Cardoza was also a thorn in the side of House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif.. Despite his previous posts in leadership (he was a DCCC co-chair in 2010), the two at times clashed, including during the negotiations over the health care law. He voted against Pelosi for Democratic leader earlier this year, supporting his more-moderate home-state colleague Rep. Jim Costa instead. In the fight for majority leader in 2007, Costa Cardoza publicly backed Rep. Steny Hoyer over Pelosi.

Nonetheless, the National Republican Congressional Committee had already targeted Cardoza in an ad campaign last month, and immediately seized on Cardoza's retirement as more evidence of a worsening political environment for Democratic moderates.

"After years of being one of Pelosi's top lieutenants, Dennis Cardoza has realized it will be impossible to continue to fool voters about his self-proclaimed Blue Dog label as the political environment worsens for Democrats between now and Election Day," said NRCC spokeswoman Joanna Burgos.

Redistricting also played a major role in his decision. Under the new map, Cardoza was facing the unpalatable option of challenging Costa in a Democratic primary, or running in the more-Republican 21st District where Democrats already landed a strong recruit in state senator Michael Rubio.

Cardoza's lackluster fundraising this past quarter had also raised retirement speculation; he raised just $23,000 during the past three months.

Tom Leppert is the former mayor of Dallas. But you wouldn't know it just from watching his first television ad.

"I'm a conservative businessman and the only proven job creator in the race," Leppert says in the 30 second spot produced by Scott Howell & Company. The ad was first reported by Politico.

Leppert served as mayor from 2007 until earlier this year. But in the campaign, he's underscoring his private sector business experience and focusing almost exclusively on the economy. He's released a jobs plan that tackles issues like entitlement reform, and of the candidates in the GOP race, his level of specificity on jobs stands out.

The mid six-figure ad buy, which starts Thursday across the state, displays Leppert's financial strength, but going up on the air this early also says something about his predicament in the GOP Senate race. Former state Solicitor General Ted Cruz is generating buzz among national conservatives, while Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst's high name ID and money is fueling his frontrunning campaign. Is there room for a self-funder, whose more-moderate positions on social issues could give conservative voters pause?

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Rick Perry favors a flat tax, Nevada blinks on sticking to its early presidential caucus date and Ed Rendell is sounding downright pessimistic about President Obama's Keystone State chances. Here's today's rundown:

9) Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, D-Ariz., will read the final chapter of her upcoming book aloud, given people an opportunity to see how she is recovering. The memoir will be released in November.

8) Oppo is already flying in the Oregon special election to succeed former Democratic Rep. David Wu. The AP reports that Republican Rob Cornilles, campaigning on his business experience, had an $83,900 tax lien placed on his business. His campaign said it was due to an inexperienced bookkeeper, and that he immediately paid the debt off, when informed of the back taxes he owed.

7) Snohomish County Executive Aaron Reardon is shooting down rumors that he might run for governor of Washington. "Sorry to disappoint," the Democrat said.

6) The Iowa Republican Party is targeting Dec. 15 for a debate that the party will co-sponsor, along with Fox News.

5) Republicans won back both of New Hampshire's congressional seats in 2010, but Reps. Frank Guinta and Charlie Bass aren't winning over voters in their respective districts, according to a new WMUR-TV Granite State Poll released late Wednesday. Guinta's favorable/unfavorable split is 30 percent/30 percent, while just 29 percent of Second District residents have a favorable opinion of Bass -- compared to 36 percent who have an unfavorable opinion.

About half of Americans have a favorable impression of Mitt Romney, according to a new Associated Press poll released Wednesday, a significant improvement over the past eight weeks that makes the former Massachusetts governor the best-positioned candidate to defeat a vulnerable President Obama.

Forty-nine percent of Americans have a favorable impression of Romney, compared to 37 percent who have an unfavorable impression. In late August, 39 percent of Americans had a favorable opinion of Romney, while 41 percent had an unfavorable opinion.

Herman Cain, the former CEO of Godfather's Pizza, is the only other GOP candidate whose image ratings compare to Romney's: 43 percent have a favorable impression, compared to 32 percent unfavorable. That's a dramatic rise from a favorable rating of 21 percent eight weeks ago.

Obama's favorable rating is 54 percent, while 44 percent have an unfavorable opinion of him. That is virtually identical to his rating eight weeks ago.

Overall, 30 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say they want Romney to win the party's nomination for president, while 26 percent pick Cain. Texas Gov. Rick Perry is preferred by 13 percent of Republicans, 8 percent chose Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, and 7 percent chose former House Speaker Newt Gingrich.

Former Sen. Russ Feingold, D-Wis., made his second Senate endorsement of the cycle Wednesday, throwing his support behind Rep. Tammy Baldwin's candidacy.

The endorsement isn't a surprise. The two served in Congress together and enjoy the same liberal base of support in Dane County. Feingold's first endorsement this cycle went to Elizabeth Warren in Massachusetts. Warren and Baldwin have set up a joint fundraising group.

Feingold was a unique voice in the Senate, a liberal Democrat who flashed a maverick streak that meant he often found himself at odds with his own party. His backing of Baldwin, is, as Ben Smith wrote about his backing of Warren, a sort of passing of the torch.

Updated at 1:30 p.m. on Oct. 20.

Influential New Hampshire Republican activist Kevin Smith has resigned as executive director of the conservative group Cornerstone Action and Policy Research, he announced Wednesday. Smith's decision is the latest sign that he's moving toward a gubernatorial run.

"Just as I knew in my heart three years ago that becoming the Executive Director of Cornerstone was the right path then, I know in my heart today that moving on and exploring new opportunities is also the right thing to do," said Smith in a statement. "Regardless of which future path I choose, I will be forever grateful to the thousands of Granite Staters that I have met along the way and to those that have supported Cornerstone's work."

But in a brief interview, Smith indicated that an announcement about his plans for the governor's race isn't necessarily imminent.

"Assuming the [New Hampshire presidential] primary is in January, I'd expect I'd have a decision prior to that, but at the very latest, it would be right after the primary," Smith told Hotline On Call. New Hampshire's primary date is still up in the air; It could take place on Jan. 10, but Secretary of State Bill Gardner has threatened to move it into December if Nevada does not move is caucus back a few days.

When asked if a decision before Thanksgiving should be expected, Smith said "probably not," but reiterated that he has not have a firm timeline.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. It was presidential fight night in Vegas last night, as Herman Cain came under fire, while Romney got into Perry's personal space over an immigration exchange. Meanwhile, Debbie Wasserman Schultz is headed to Mississippi to help Johnny DuPree, McGovern and Olver could get lumped in the same district, and Raul Labrador gets some NFL-level competition. Here's today's rundown:

8) Long-shot GOP New Mexico Senate candidate Greg Sowards told The Hill that he had fired his entire staff and that they will be replaced by a "well-read" campaign manager who has not run any campaigns before and is "unconventional enough [that] he will fit me like a glove." Sowards has struggled to make any inroads in the GOP race, which features former Rep. Heather Wilson and lieutenant governor John Sanchez.

7) Former NFL wide receiver Jimmy Farris plans to run as a Democrat against freshman Rep. Raul Labrador, R-Idaho. Even though Democrat Walt Minnick held the district for two years, it's a solidly Republican seat, giving President Obama just 36 percent of the vote.

6) Democratic National Committee Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz is headed to Mississippi to appear with Democratic gubernatorial nominee Johnny DuPree on Thursday at a Breast Cancer Awareness rally and We Believe Jobs rally.

Herman Cain narrowly leads the first-in-the-South Republican presidential primary in South Carolina, and he and Mitt Romney run neck-and-neck in the crucial state of Florida, which will also hold its primary in January, according to new NBC News/Marist polls released early Wednesday.

In the Palmetto State, which holds its primary on January 21, Cain leads Romney among likely primary voters, 31 percent to 28 percent. Texas Gov. Rick Perry announced his candidacy in South Carolina, but he earns only ten percent of the vote. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is fourth with seven percent, followed by Reps. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., and Ron Paul, R-Texas, who are at five percent. Ten percent of likely voters are undecided.

Fifty-three percent of likely GOP voters in South Carolina either do not believe Mormons are Christians, or say they are unsure, a potential liability for Romney in the state.

Florida holds its primary ten days after South Carolina, and the NBC News/Marist poll shows that Cain and Romney are -- at this moment -- leading the rest of the field by a significant margin. Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, is at 33 percent, leading the former Godfather's Pizza CEO by just a point. Perry is back at nine percent, followed by Paul and Gingrich at six percent. Eight percent of Sunshine State primary voters are undecided.

Seven GOP presidential candidates are in Las Vegas, Nev., for a CNN/Western Republican Leadership Conference debate. Throughout the evening, National Journal's editors will use this space to provide instant analysis of the debate's key moments.

10:05 Sean Sullivan: Perry showed signs of fight in him, but his best moments came at the very top of the debate. Romney faced some tough attacks from a variety of directions but played steady defense during his exchange late in the debate against Perry over jobs. And Cain got his first real taste of life at the top of the pack, as his 9-9-9 plan faced an onslaught of criticism form the get-go.

9:50 Sean Sullivan: Late in the debate, Perry and Romney spar over their respective record on jobs, the crucial issue. This is Perry's bread and butter issue, but Romney holds his own on defense when Perry takes digs at his job creating record in Mass. That's what's made Romney tough in all these debates; he's been able to deliver concise rebuttals.

9:48 Kathy Kiely: In bragging about his ability to win election as a Republican in a Democratic-leaning state, Santorum always fails to mention that his last appearance on the ballot: when now-Sen. Bob Casey, a Democrat, crushed him 59 percent to 41 percent.

9:08 Jessica Taylor: This is perhaps the most we've seen of Rick Santorum in any debate, and he's playing the provocateur. He may be benefiting the most from the absence of Huntsman.

9:03 Tim Alberta: The near-screaming match between Romney and Perry over immigration was as ugly an exchange as we've seen during this primary cycle, and shows both men smell blood on the issue. We've wondered for months whether a non-economic issue would surface as a potential game-changer in the nominating process; it seems we've gotten our answer.

8:51 Kathy Kiely: Las Vegas is accustomed to hosting lots of hard-hitting prize fights but even this audience seems impressed by the punches that are being landed in this debate. Was it the setting of the Iowa caucus date that lit a fire under these cats? Something's got them fired up and, um, ready to go.

8:50 Kathy Kiely: Cain is handling the combative tone better than any of his rivals. He sounds like the reasonable adult in the middle of a food fight.

8:44 Josh Kraushaar: Romney's getting rattled at this debate -- first with Santorum, now with Perry. Immigration's a very volatile issue in Republican primary politics.

8:43 Jessica Taylor: We're only 30 minutes in, and this is the feistiest debate yet -- but it's also providing real differences between the candidates on health care and the economy. It's do or die time now.

Oregon Labor Commissioner Brad Avakian is out with his first television ad just ahead of next month's 1st District special election. The 30-second spot goes after the Tea Party instead of Avakian's Democratic rivals.

In "Ticked Off," Avakian is blunt, saying he's "ticked off about what's going on. These Tea Party Republicans trying to end Medicare and roll back the clock on women? It's crazy. And you see Congress doing nothing while we struggle."

As images flash of the Democrat talking with seniors, driving his truck, and even getting his hair cut at a local barber shop, Avakian emphasizes his local roots. "I grew up here. I raised my kids here. This place is home to me. I'll fight for a jobs plan, and end to Wall Street handouts, whatever it takes," he says.

The ad begins Wednesday for a one week $50,000 buy on both broadcast and cable in the Portland market.

Avakian faces state Sen. Suzanne Bonamici and state Rep. Brad Witt in the November 8 primary to succeed disgraced former Democratic Rep. David Wu. But Avakian is hitting the airwaves at a key moment: ballots start going out for the all-mail election on Friday, October 21.

Bonamici has already been spending heavily on the airwaves and she also led the 3rd Quarter fundraising chase by a big margin -- bringing in over $600,000 through the end of September, including $200,000 of her own money. Avakian, who had already been running against Wu before his resignation, raised over $183,000, while Witt had just under $64,000.

Both a Bonamici internal poll and a survey from EMILY's List, who is actively supporting Bonamici, showed her with a wide lead over Avakian, and a source close to Avakian said this weekend that while their polling shows a softer lead for Bonamici, they believe that's due to her heavy advertising on TV, and as ballots go out next week for the all-mail special election, they believe they race is still tight.

Whoever emerges from the Democratic primary will likely face 2010 nominee Rob Cornilles next January, who also raised an impressive $500,000 for the special election.

Watch Avakian's full ad after the jump.

Seeking to gin up enthusiasm about an expanding the 2012 Senate map, national Democrats touted the candidacy of retired Army Lt. Gen. Ricardo Sanchez when he entered the Texas Senate race in the spring. But Sanchez has maintained a low profile so far and his latest fundraising numbers aren't impressive.

In the third quarter, Sanchez brought in just $83,000, spending over $112,000 and finishing the quarter with about $119,000 in the bank. The three major GOP candidates each had over seven-figures in their accounts at the close of the quarter.

Given Texas' heavy GOP tilt, Sanchez was never expected to be a major force, despite his high-profile rollout. But a booming Hispanic population in the state signaled an opportunity for Democrats to make inroads. It's not too late for Sanchez to reverse his fotunes, but so far, Sanchez hasn't offered many indications that he'll be anything more than the latest Democrat in Texas to take on a statewide race amid Democratic gusto, only to later fade into the background.

Don't look for an official Senate campaign announcement from former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson any time this year: the Republican said on Monday that his announcement will come next spring.

"I'm waiting for my big announcement in the spring, but I am definitely going to be running," Thompson said at a Wispolitics.com luncheon on Monday. WISN Milwaukee has the full story here.

He may not be officially announcing until next year, but Thompson's already filed with the Federal Election Commission, is working with consultants and is engaging in many other activities associated with running a campaign. His allies have already engaged with opponents and Thompson has even unveiled a campaign logo. So in most of the ways that matter, he's in.

"Today, I filed my statement of candidacy for the office of United States Senate," Thompson said in an email to supporters on Oct. 4. On Sept. 19, Thompson said on WTMJ Radio: "I've filed my corporation documents today, which allows me now to build my organization, raise money so I can go out there and tell the story."

After winning a Silver Star in Vietnam, fighting communism in Africa and working as a mercenary, how tough can a Senate race be?

Sixty-Five-year-old Thomas Bleming is about to find out. Hotline alum Jeremy Pelzer at the Casper Star Tribune has the details on the man who plans to primary Sen. John Barrasso, R-Wyo. The paper reports that Bleming once worked as mercenary-for-hire and landed in jail in 1979 for nearly two years after a botched assassination attempt against Panamanian Dictator Manuel Noriega.

Don't expect a traditional Republican candidacy: Bleming told the paper he plans to campaign around the state with an AK-47 on his back as a symbol of his support for gun rights -- but he is also for government-run universal health care system for all Americans and abolishment of the Fed.

North Carolina and Virginia handed President Obama a combined 28 electoral votes in 2008. But in October of 2011, Democrats in the two battleground states are not exactly rolling out the red carpet for him.

From National Journal:
ANALYSISCan Perry Overtake Cain in Time?

CONGRESS Both Parties Divided on Trade

The Washington Post reported today that Democrats in Virginia encouraged the White House to structure President Obama's schedule such that he would not visit areas where state senators are facing tight elections next month. That includes the Democratic bastion of Charlottesville, where Obama campaigned for former Rep. Tom Perriello just last year, right before the 2010 midterm election.

Also absent from Obama's bus tour are the most well-known statewide Democratic figures in the two battleground states. In North Carolina, Bev Perdue, the most vulnerable Democratic governor up for reelection in 2012 was away from the state on a trade mission in Asia when Obama's bus tour rolled through on Monday. Former Democratic National Committee Chairman Tim Kaine won't appear with Obama in Virginia, also because of prior commitments. Kaine appeared with Obama at the University of Richmond last month, but his spokeswoman says he has a full schedule "including events for legislative candidates who are up for election in a couple of weeks, which could not be rescheduled."

And on Monday, Rep. Heath Shuler, D-N.C., wasn't able to attend Obama's first stop on the jobs tour in Asheville, N.C. The city is in Shuler's district, but the congressman was overseas on a Congressional trip to Sri Lanka.

There's even, then there is even. A review of the third quarter campaign finance reports from Texas Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst and former Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert shows that just $1,520 dollars separates the accounts of the two GOP Senate candidates. Dewhurst finished the period with $4,172,590 while Leppert ended with $4,171,070. You're not going to find two competing tallies closer than that. Both candidates have self-funded to the tune of seven figures so far, but Dewhurst has also raised a lot of money from donors.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Utah lawmakers send a new Congressional map to the governor, while President Obama makes his way through Virginia, even as some Democrats express concern over his visit. Meanwhile, Elizabeth Warren's "hick" comment attracts attention in the Bay State and Nevada hosts the latest presidential debate tonight. Here's today's rundown:

7) A truck filled with President Obama's podiums and audio equipment was stolen in Virginia.

6) It's official: The Iowa caucuses will be held on Jan. 3. The focus in the calendar tussle will continue to be squarely on New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner, who has threatened a December primary if Nevada does not move back its Jan. 14 caucuses.

5) Utah lawmakers have passed a new congressional map. What does Democratic Rep. Jim Matheson's new district look like under the plan? The Salt Lake Tribune reports that it includes most of Salt Lake City, part of West Valley City, southern Davis County, Tooele County and most of southern Utah, and makes it tougher for Matheson to win re-election to the seat.

Mitt Romney and Herman Cain are in a virtual tie atop the latest CNN/ORC International poll of the Republican presidential primary, and new data released Tuesday indicate the Cain boomlet is being fueled by the former Godfather's Pizza CEO's likeability and economic bona fides.

Cain, however, trails Mitt Romney on electability, and despite Romney's near-stagnant poll numbers, a majority of Republicans think the former Massachusetts governor is the most likely candidate to win the nomination.

Asked which candidate is most likely to win the GOP nomination, 51 percent of Republicans choose Romney, while 18 percent select Cain and 14 percent pick Texas Gov. Rick Perry. Last month, 41 percent saw Perry as the most likely Republican nominee, while 28 percent chose Perry and just five percent said Cain was the most likely to win the nomination.

Romney is also seen as having the best chance to beat President Obama in the general election, leading Cain on that question, 41 percent to 24 percent. Twelve percent think Perry has the best chance to beat Obama.

But on other questions, Cain leads, revealing the extent to which he has made inroads within the Republican primary electorate -- and the work Romney still needs to do to seal the nomination. Asked which candidate they think is the most likeable, 34 percent choose Cain, while 29 percent choose Romney. Just five weeks ago, only four percent thought Cain was the most likeable.

Americans say they are rooting for President Obama's policies to succeed, but a majority thinks it is more likely that they will fail, according to a new CNN/ORC International poll released late Monday.

Asked whether they hope his policies will succeed or fail, 67 percent of Americans say they hope they will succeed, slightly higher than the 61 percent who rooted for their success last December. Just a quarter of Americans say they hope Obama's policies fail, including just over half of Republicans.

But while Americans are still pulling for Obama, nearly six-and-ten believe that his policies are likely to fail: 34 percent of Democrats, 83 percent of Republicans and 61 percent of independents. Nearly two-thirds of whites believe they are more likely to fail. Only 36 percent believe they are likely to succeed.

Last December, Americans were mixed on Obama's prospects, with 44 percent thinking Obama's policies would more likely succeed and 47 percent thinking they would fail.

Despite Americans' declining confidence in Obama's agenda, his approval rating ticked up to 46 percent. From July through September, his approval rating fluctuated between 43 and 45 percent.

Meanwhile, the percentage of Americans who disapprove of Obama's job performance dropped to 50 percent. Over the summer, it was in the 52-to-55-percent range.

The CNN/ORC International poll was conducted Oct. 14-16, surveying 1,007 adults. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percent.

Coming up with a list of Congressional fundraising losers this quarter wasn't hard to do this quarter. Many of the members put into precarious situations because of redistricting did little to shore up their standing on the money front. And with fundraising down across-the-board, it wasn't uncommon to see five-figure totals - among members and recruits alike.

But while there were many candidates choose from, we chose to spotlight the 10 sitting members of Congress who stood out for their lackluster fundraising - thanks to a combination of their political vulnerability and showing little urgency in doing anything about it.

Here are Hotline's 10 most lackluster House fundraising tallies:

1. Rep. Roscoe Bartlett, R-Md. Bartlett currently sits in a safe district, but he should have paid attention to the buzz that Democrats were looking to make his seat much more competitive in redistricting. He made no attempt to prepare for what's now shaping up to be a competitive re-election, bringing in $1,000 - from a single PAC donation. His lack of trying is sure to bring the retirement buzz to a roar.

2. Rep. Lou Barletta, R-Pa. Republicans view Barletta as one of their most vulnerable members, and put him on the Patriot Program, designed to help at-risk members raise money. It didn't help Barletta at all. He raised less money than any other member on the program, barely cracking six figures. And it was a huge dropoff from last quarter, when he raised $276,000. Barletta may be getting a more-favorable district when the new lines are drawn in the Keystone State, but he can't rest on his laurels.

3. Rep. Leonard Boswell, D-Iowa. Even as he faces a well-organized challenge from Rep. Tom Latham, R-Iowa, Boswell isn't raising money like he's concerned. He only pulled in $144,000 over the past three months, and has just $375,000 in the bank. That's less than half of Latham's fundraising total, and the Republican incumbent has $1.7 million cash-on-hand - more than four times Boswell's reserves.

4. Rep. David Rivera, R-Fla. Being under federal investigation certainly isn't good for fundraising. The GOP freshman, facing scrutiny over past campaign irregularities since being elected, brought in a dismal $26,500. His one saving grace: The Democrats' much-hyped challenger, Luis Garcia, brought in just $103,000.

Former Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert and Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst dumped six and seven figure sums of their own money into their respective campaigns last quarter, but they could soon get some company in the Texas Senate race from another wealthy Republican.

The Houston Chronicle reports that allies of Rep. Michael McCaul say he plans to decide in the coming days whether he will enter the Lone Star State Senate race.

If McCaul runs, things could become, well, pretty complicated, pretty quickly. The overall shape of the race would be murky. McCaul's not as well-known statewide as Dewhurst, but his huge personal fortune can buy him some name ID.

On the one hand, having another wealthy self-funder in the race could be detrimental to Dewhurst. On the other, his presence could hurt former state Solicitor General Ted Cruz by further populating the non-Dewhurst part of the field and also by forcing the conservative upstart to compete over the airwaves with yet another millionaire with the ability to buy major points.

In September, the Austin American-Statesman's Jason Embry pointed out some compelling reasons -- including the congressman's vote against TARP and his stand against earmarks -- McCaul would be an appealing candidate to GOP voters.

One thing potentially working against McCaul: It's not often that lower chamber Members from Texas move to the upper chamber: The Chronicle also points out the last person to make the transition was Republican Phil Gramm in 1984.

A new CNN/ORC International poll released Monday echoes other surveys in showing Herman Cain running neck-and-neck with Mitt Romney among Republican voters, with the former Godfather's Pizza CEO outrunning the former Massachusetts governor among men and wealthier primary voters.

The poll shows Romney leading with 26 percent of the vote, one point clear of Cain, who is at 25 percent; the difference is well within the poll's margin of error of +/- 4.8 percent. Texas Gov. Rick Perry is well behind the two frontrunners, at 13 percent.

The survey also shows a developing gender gap: Cain leads Romney among men, 30 percent to 25 percent. Among women, Romney leads Cain, 26 percent to 20 percent.

Cain's support also comes largely from voters making $50,000 a year or more; he leads among that subgroup, 32 percent to 27 percent. But among voters making less than $50,000 a year, he trails both Romney and Perry, with only 15 percent of the vote.

Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, is at nine percent in the poll, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is at eight percent, Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., is at six percent., former Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pa., is at two percent and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman earned just one percent. One percent chose another, unnamed candidate, while nine percent chose no one or had no opinion.

Missouri Democratic Gov. Jay Nixon has more than two and half times as much money in the bank as Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder, his likely Republican opponent, campaign finance reports show.

Nixon's campaign announced Monday that the first term governor raised over $1.46 million during the third quarter and ended the period with over $4.2 million in the bank - his best quarterly fundraising performance this election cycle.

Kinder raised about $410,000 during the third quarter, ending with over $1.55 million in the bank. Kinder held some high profile fundraisers during the period, including one with Karl Rove and one with Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour. Kinder's high burn rate is also worth highlighting. He finished the third quarter with about $106,000 less than he had in the bank at the start of the quarter.

What to make of the numbers? Nixon was expected to bank more money, so that's no huge surprise. Kinder, who has faced a string of negative headlines this year, is still raising money at a decent clip, which signals he is still leaning towards running. He told the American Spectator in late September that he would have an announcement "in four to eight weeks."

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Pres. Obama kicks off his bus tour through the Virginia and North Carolina battlegrounds, while in Utah, the battle over redistricting starts up again. Meanwhile, Cain is well behind Romney and Perry in the money chase, while Florida Republicans struggle to raise money against Bill Nelson. Here's today's rundown:

9) Big debate audiences: The New York Times takes a look at how the ratings for the Republican presidential debates stack up against the 2008 election cycle. A September Fox News debate attracted 3.2 million viewers in 2007; this year, Fox's September debate attracted 6.1 million viewers.

8) The Democratic-aligned House Majority PAC is hitting Reps. Dan Lungren, R-Calif., Charles Bass, R-N.H., Bill Johnson, R-Ohio, and Sean Duffy, R-Wis., with a new six-figure, week-long ad buy. The ad buy that targets Duffy goes after the Republican for voting for House Budget Chairman Paul Ryan's budget plan, among other things.

7) According to a new poll of Utah voters conducted for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee by Anzalone Liszt Research, Sen. Orrin Hatch, R-Utah, leads Democratic Rep. Jim Matheson 48 percent to 42 percent in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup. Matheson leads Hatch 55 percent to 28 percent among independents and the congressman's approval rating (66 percent) is higher than Hatch's (62 percent). An early August Mason-Dixon poll showed a similarly close race, with Hatch leading 48 percent to 43 percent in that survey. The DSCC survey, conducted Sept. 7-15, is more than month old.

6) Utah redistricting has sparked speculation that Matheson might opt for a Senate campaign if he decides his newly-drawn district is too tough to win. The poll comes as Salt Lake Tribune reports that today, the Utah state House GOP caucus will consider whether it wants to pass a map approved by the Senate and the joint Redistricting Committee. The Tribune also points out that some Republicans have made the claim that Republican Gov. Gary Herbert has asked lawmakers to make a friendlier district for Matheson so he won't challenge Herbert.

Also of note: Matheson only raised $165,000 in the last quarter, not the type of big fundraising tally that candidates who are preparing for a Senate campaign would raise.

We're now nearly a year out from the 2012 congressional elections, and the third quarter is a crucial marker for both vulnerable incumbents to beef up their bank accounts and for new challengers to prove their viability. This quarter can be a tricky one though - coming amid the summer doldrums and the August recess - and fundraising has been down across the board.

But a handful of candidates used the past three months to their benefit, racking up impressive fundraising numbers. We've picked out the top 10 members and candidates whose fundraising stood out among the hundreds of FEC reports Hotline pored through this weekend.

Stay tuned for our top 10 fundraising busts -- those who finished well below expectations.

1. Rep. Steve King, R-Iowa: King, facing his first serious re-election challenge in a while from Democrat Christie Vilsack, got off to a slow start with his fundraising this year. But his numbers improved significantly this quarter, bringing in $400,000 and outraising the former Iowa First Lady. Vilsack still has more cash in the bank, with $546.000 to King's $497,000, but he proved he won't be a pushover.

2. Rep. Allen West, R-Fla. West has a national conservative following, and he's been able to translate that into blockbuster fundraising tallies. This time, he raised $1.96 million, although he had an awfully high burn rate of $1.4 million, as well. He starts off the fall with a significant cash advantage over his Democratic opposition, with $1.82 million in the bank.

3. Rep. Tim Bishop, D-N.Y: Bishop had the best quarter of any of the DCCC's Frontline members, raising over $313,000 for his likely rematch with Republican Randy Altschuler, banking over $987,000. Bishop is doing what he needs to do on the money front to be in a good position for re-election next year.

4. Attorney Ann McLane Kuster (D). Talk about a fundraising standout. The repeat candidate raised more than twice as much money as Rep. Charles Bass, R-N.H., bringing in $359,000 to Bass' meager $147,000 total.. She has the cash on hand edge early in the race, too, with over $590,000 in the bank to Bass's $488,000.

5. Illinois Republicans. Republicans up for re-election know they'll be facing tough times, thanks to the Democrat-engineered redistricting putting most of them in jeopardy. But both freshman and veterans alike showed they're ready for the challenge. Rep. Bobby Schilling raised a respectable $246,000, and he'll need every dollar to fend over Democratic opposition in a district that's tough for Republicans. In the Chicago suburbs, Rep. Bob Dold, R-Ill, brought in $376,000 and has nearly $1 million in the bank.

One exception to the rule: Rep. Tim Johnson, R-Ill., who only brought in a paltry $152,000 and faces tough Democratic competition from former state Rep. Jay Hoffman in a vastly redrawn district - where he hasn't personally called most of his constituency.

The late summer months that make up the third quarter are typically slow. The extended debate over the debt ceiling was a further hindrance to lawmaker fundraising. Even in that context, several candidates made statements with either notably big or small hauls. With that in mind, here are Hotline On Call's third quarter Senate fundraising winners and losers:

Winners:

5) Ohio Treasurer Josh Mandel: The Republican outraised Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, for the second straight quarter, bringing in $1.5 million to the incumbent's $1.25 million. It's not the $2.3 million Mandel brought in last quarter, but it's still impressive. Brown finished with $4.2 million in the bank while Mandel had $3.25 million.

4) Former Democratic National Committee Chairman Tim Kaine/Sen. Jon Tester, D-Mont.: Both have opened up notable cash on hand leads over their respective high-profile GOP opponents. In the Treasure state, Tester's advantage is roughly $3.1 million to $1.8 million over GOP Rep. Denny Rehberg. In Virginia, Kaine's advantage is $2.55 million to $1.8 million over former GOP Sen. George Allen.

For perspective, at a comparable point in 2005, then-Democratic challengers Claire McCaskill and Tester himself were well behind in the money chase against GOP opponents they eventually defeated, so don't read too much into the early numbers. It's a marathon. Still, the war chests of Tester and Kaine are encouraging news for national Democrats.

3) Texas Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst: As if Dewhurst's record-breaking $2.64 million haul wasn't enough, the GOP frontrunner chipped in $2 million more of his own money and ended the quarter with over $4 million in the bank. Former Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert also has personal money to play with and former state Solicitor General Ted Cruz did not have a bad quarter. But there are several reasons the lieutenant governor is the frontrunner and money is a major one.

What we at The Hotline learned this week:

-- Texas Gov. Rick Perry's impressive fundraising haul for this quarter - over $17 million - allows him to air television ads against former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney to television ads, instead of relying on his own strong performances at the debates. That seems to be his most logical strategy right now, along with pitching his jobs/energy plan. Following his disappearing act during Tuesday's debate, Perry ended this week hoping hoped to regain momentum with a media blitz and jobs speech. Perry's debate performances prove he needs a different format to air out his disagreements with Romney, and he has the money to get out his message.

-- The 9-9-9 in businessman Herman Cain's tax plan might be the numbers that are getting the most play this week, but here are some other important numbers: currently Cain has 4 campaign staffers in Iowa, 2 paid staffers in New Hampshire, and 1 paid staffer in South Carolina. Cain says he will be adding staff in early states, but Cain's small presence is a serious obstacle to overcome. And his $2.8 million quarterly haul won't allow him to bring on much more staff - unless he was able to translate good buzz into cash in October, after the third quarter fundraising period closed.

-- Recruiting season for Senate races is coming to a close, and Republicans can point to a good month, with a strong candidate in Hawaii and some credible candidates in Pennsylvania. But West Virginia remains a gaping hole on the GOP side. Even if Republicans had won the gubernatorial race, it might have been hard to recruit a decent challenger to Sen. Joe Manchin, and acting-Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin's victory won't help matters. While Rep. Shelley Moore Capito, R-W.Va., hasn't completely ruled out a bid, some polling suggests she might have a better chance in 2014, if Sen. Jay Rockefeller, D-W.Va., retires.

-- While all the Senate fundraising numbers aren't in yet, one thing is already clear: Democratic candidates are doing better in many key raising, outraising their Republican rivals in Montana, Nevada, Missouri, Virginia and New Mexico. In Massachusetts, Elizabeth Warren had a great quarter too, though Sen. Scott Brown's, R-Mass., has a sizable warchest thanks to his early start. The two main bright spots for the GOP are state Treasurer Josh Mandel's continued fundraising strength in Ohio and the weak fundraising of Sen. Ben Nelson, D-Neb.

Ohio Republicans, with approval from House Speaker John Boehner, crafted a Congressional map last month that would have maximized Republican representation in the battleground state. But Democrats in the state cried foul, and just received a favorable ruling from the Ohio Supreme Court, allowing them to pursue a ballot referendum that would block the new lines.

The Cincinnati Enquirer reported that the state Supreme Court's decision would throw next year's Congressional elections in limbo, with no resolution in sight.

State Republicans had attached an appropriation to the redistricting bill, designed to prevent an anticipated referendum to repeal the legislation. But the Ohio Supreme Court -- made up of six Republicans and one Democrat - ruled in a unanimous decision Friday that Secretary of State Jon Husted must accept a petition from a Democratic group that would put the remap on the November 2012 ballot for a yes or no vote.

According to the Enquirer, the implications are significant if the redistricting measure goes before Ohio voters. It could create the need for a statewide primary with the top 16 Republicans facing the top 16 Democrats. Legislators could also go back to the drawing board to try to come to a consensus on a new map, but if they don't, that responsibility could also be tossed to the federal courts.

Husted spokesman Matt McClellan told the Enquirer that the court's ruling throws "a monkey wrench" into not just state filing deadlines but also presidential filing dates in the crucial swing state.

Updated at 4:00 p.m. on Saturday

"Meet the Press" host David Gregory announced at the end of last week's show that this Sunday's program would be devoted to a surrogate debate for the candidates who were then the top two GOP presidential contenders, with former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty representing former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney's campaign and Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal representing Texas Gov. Rick Perry. But "Meet the Press" had to alter that schedule in order to accommodate businessman Herman Cain's surge in this week's NBC News-Wall Street Journal poll. Cain will lead out the hour, followed by the debate between Pawlenty and Jindal.

This will mark Cain's third straight week on one of the top five Sunday shows, with appearances on both "Face the Nation" and "State of the Union" last week and stops on "This Week" and "Fox News Sunday" the week before, following his win in the Presidency 5 straw poll.

Also on TV this Sunday, Fox News and CNN will be broadcasting live from the Martin Luther King Jr. Memorial dedication in Washington, D.C. Morning events, beginning at 8 a.m., will be emceed by CNN's Roland Martin and PBS' Gwen Ifill, followed by the formal dedication at 11 a.m. which will feature appearances by President Obama and Vice President Joe Biden, among others.

Get the full listings after the jump.

There are primary challenges brewing against several of the House GOP's 87 freshmen next year - but National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Pete Sessions says he's not concerned about the intraparty sniping that could be coming.

"I think that it's a natural thing for a brand new member of Congress to be challenged his first time out," Sessions said in an interview on C-SPAN's "Newsmakers," which will air on Sunday at 10 a.m. and again at 6 p.m. ET.

"We expect that, not only from the Democrats as they come after our first term freshmen members, but we expect that internally. And this is a healthy thing," he said.

Sessions said that while the primary fights could force both freshmen and veteran members to have to spend money early, hurting them down the road against Democrats, it was still too early to tell the impact they could have in the general election.

"It does not bother me necessarily if I see some of our members [in primaries]," said Sessions. "I think it's a reminder that our members need to go back home and sell the agenda that we're doing and sell the fight that we're still having in Washington.""

Freshmen Reps. Bill Huizenga, R-Mich., Nan Hayworth, R-N.Y., and Scott DesJarlais, R-Tenn., are only a few of the members who have had possible primary challengers smelling blood. Rep. Chuck Fleischmann, R-Tenn., has already drawn a primary challenge from 24-year-old Weston Wamp, the son of former Rep. Zach Wamp, R-Tenn., who Fleischmann succeeded last year.

Sen. Ben Nelson, D-Neb., raised $443,000 during the third quarter, his campaign announced on Friday. That's less than half of what he brought in last quarter.

His report also means that barring a surprisingly strong showing from Republican state Treasurer Don Stenberg or any of the lower tier candidates, Attorney General Jon Bruning, the GOP frontrunner, is the surprise winner of the third quarter money chase in Nebraska.

Bruning's numbers were not eye-popping -- he raised about $583,000 -- but marked an improvement from prior lackluster quarters.

Nelson still sports a seven-figure cash on hand advantage. He finished the period with $3.1 million in the bank while Bruning wrapped up with $1.59 million cash on hand. Last quarter, Nelson raised $910,000.

For the majority of 2012's most competitive governor's races, high-profile recruiting coups mean the Democratic and Republican nominees are more or less etched in, even with Election Day more than a year away. We can already take general election matchups in Washington (Inslee/McKenna) and Indiana (Pence/Gregg), along with anticipated showdowns in North Carolina (McCrory/Perdue) and Missouri (Kinder/Nixon), to the bank.

But that's not the case in Montana, which is also expected to play host to one of next year's most competitive contests.

Former state Transportation Director Jim Lynch is the latest Republican to enter an already crowded GOP field. On the Democratic side, though, Attorney General Steve Bullock is the early favorite in a two-candidate race.

In the Republican contest, former Rep. Rick Hill has the name identification and an early financial edge, but knowledgeable Republicans warn not to sleep on state Senate Majority Leader Jeff Essmann. Then there is a whole host of other candidates, including former state Sen. Ken Miller, who is trying to appeal to conservatives.

The Treasure State may not be the only place featuring a packed field this cycle: Also keep an eye on New Hampshire, where another open seat contest is setting off a multi-candidate scramble on both sides.

Updated with DoJ fact sheet, 11:04 a.m.

In a statement [pdf] on his website Wednesday, New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner drew a clear line in the sand between his state's traditional first-in-the-nation primary and Nevada's newer first-in-the-West caucuses: Nevada must move off its planned January 14 date, Gardner said, or New Hampshire could hold their primary as early as December 6 or December 13.

The trouble is, he's bluffing.

Gardner has already set one firm date, the filing deadline. Candidates who want to run for president must file the appropriate papers with his office by close of business on Friday, October 28 (That is, two weeks from today).

Gardner can't start printing any ballots until that process is complete. In fact, he probably can't start printing ballots until the next business day, Monday, October 31. And thanks to a law Congress passed in 2009, he must allow at least 45 days to pass between the time he sends out absentee ballots and Election Day.

That law, the Military and Overseas Voter Empowerment Act, significantly expanded a 1986 law known as the Uniformed and Overseas Citizens Absentee Voting Act. The MOVE Act requires state elections officials to send absentee ballots to qualified voters at least 45 days before an election; the goal is to ensure military personnel serving overseas and on Navy ships receive ballots with enough time to vote.

So if Gardner prints ballots on October 31, he wouldn't be able to hold an election for at least 45 days, which is December 14.

Hypothetically, if Gardner had an amazingly fast printer and a staff dedicated to getting every absentee ballot stamped and out the door in the hours between the end of the filing period and midnight, he could start the 45-day clock on October 28; the clock would then expire on December 12, so Gardner could hold the primary on December 13. But realistically, that's not going to happen.

If Gardner schedules his primary on December 6th or 13th, before the 45-day clock ticks down, he's going to get sued by some voter claiming disenfranchisement under the MOVE and UOCAVA Acts. He wouldn't have a great chance at winning the case; many states that have held annual primaries in September, for example, are moving those contests back to August to account for the 45-day requirement.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. President Obama heads to Michigan, Telemundo will host its first ever presidential debate, Mourdock raises just over $300,000 and Brian Schweitzer says "blah blah blah blah blah" to rumors that he may run for Senate in 2014. Here's today's rundown:

9) Edwards versus ... President Obama? Former Sen. John Edwards's, D-N.C., legal team is arguing that Obama's appointees at the Department of Justice lacked the political courage to stop a Bush-appointed federal prosecutor from indicting him on charges pertaining to campaign finance even though the prosecution's theory is completely unprecedented, Politico reports.

8) A great tidbit from National Journal's interview with Montana Democratic Gov. Brian Schweitzer, who some say is considering a 2014 Senate run. Schweitzer's response to a question about whether he might run: "Blah blah blah blah blah. I'll fish in the morning. And maybe drink beer in the afternoon. And if someone calls and complains about their road or schools, I'll give them the phone number of someone over at the state government. This is the only thing I've ever been elected to. I was elected governor, and I can serve two terms. And I had a lot of things going before I did this, and I may have a lot of things going after."

7) Telemundo announced Thursday that it will produce and broadcast its first ever Republican Presidential debate in Las Vegas in early December.

6) The Montana GOP gubernatorial primary is getting even more crowded. Former Montana Transportation Director Jim Lynch is running, the Billings Gazette reports. Lynch had been part of the Democratic governor's Cabinet, but Schweitzer sought his resignation in August after his office confronted Lynch about the hiring of the director's daughter at the department years ago.

Updated at 9:20 p.m.

A roundup of the day's notable Senate/House third quarter FEC totals:

Senate:

-- Rep. Tammy Baldwin, D-Wis., raised a solid $738,000. More than $625,000 of that haul came since Baldwin formally entered the race in early September. Baldwin is expected to put up big fundraising numbers this cycle, and without a primary opponent, she isn't expected to have to spend as much until the general election as the Republicans, who are fielding a competitive primary.

-- Former Democratic National Committee Chairman Tim Kaine's $1.3 million haul has propelled him to about a $750,000 cash on hand lead over former Sen. George Allen, R-Va.

-- Sen. Claire McCaskill, D-Mo., raised just over $1.2 million, she announced on Facebook. McCaskill will report $3.7 million cash on hand. We're still waiting to see what her Republican opponents did. Former Treasurer Sarah Steelman, in particular, will need to show some improvement.

-- Former Texas Solicitor General Ted Cruz raised $1.1 million and ended the period with $2.4 million cash on hand. It's not a bad haul, but he's running against Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, who had a huge $2.64 million dollar quarter.

At least four Republican presidential candidates will pledge to boycott the Nevada presidential caucuses if the Silver State GOP goes ahead with plans to hold the contests on January 14.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, former Sen. Rick Santorum and Rep. Michele Bachmann have all agreed to sign a pledge to boycott Nevada, a pledge pushed by senior New Hampshire Republicans aimed at helping the Granite State maintain its status as the host of the nation's first presidential primary.

New Hampshire Senate President Peter Bragdon and House Speaker Bill O'Brien asked all the candidates to sign the pledge, according to Mike Dennehy, a New Hampshire Republican strategist who helped organize the boycott. It's similar to a pledge candidates made during the 2000 primary campaign, when Delaware moved its caucuses up to the beginning of the primary season.

The pledge comes after Nevada Republican Party officials set their 2012 caucuses for January 14, a date that puts New Hampshire in an awkward position and that has the arbiter of the primary calendar raising the prospect of a primary election during Christmas shopping season.

As the Occupy Wall Street protests continue to spread and gain attention, some Democratic leaders and groups in Washington have begun cautiously exploring a closer relationship with the movement. But according to the latest National Journal Political Insiders Poll, most strategists are not yet convinced that Occupy Wall Street represents more than a fringe phenomenon from which Democrats should keep their distance.

Former Democratic National Committee Chairman Tim Kaine raised $1.3 million during the third quarter, which is about $400,000 more than former Sen. George Allen, R-Va., who last week announced bringing in over $900,000 in the last three months.

Kaine finished the quarter with $2.55 million in the bank, his campaign announced Thursday. Allen ended the period with $1.8 million cash on hand, up about $150,000 from the roughly $1.65 million he had in the bank at the end of June. Kaine ended June with about $1.88 million cash on hand.

The Republican presidential nomination may still be up in the air, but political insiders in both parties are pretty sure they know who should be the second name on the GOP ticket. Two-thirds of the strategists surveyed in this week's National Journal Political Insiders Poll named Florida Sen. Marco Rubio as the strongest choice for the GOP vice presidential nomination.

Former Texas Solicitor General Ted Cruz raised nearly $1.1 million dollars during the third quarter, a sum which is less than half of frontrunner David Dewhurst's mammoth $2.64 million dollar haul.

Cruz ended the period with $2.4 million cash on hand. The third quarter was his best quarter to date, a notable feat, considering it's harder to raise money during the summer months. But given the combination of the pace Dewhurst has set and the national fanfare surrounding Cruz's candidacy, the former state solicitor general's haul is merely adequate.

While it was Cruz's best quarter, it's not that much further ahead of the pace he has set in prior periods: Cruz raised over $1 million during the first quarter, and then $800,000 during the second quarter.

Dewhurst, the lieutenant governor, raised a record-breaking $2.64 million during the third quarter, approximately $2.4 million of which was pulled in over the last 31 days, his campaign announced on Tuesday. He also chipped in an additional $2 million of his own money and reported over $4 million in the bank at the end of the quarter.

Cruz has become something of a national conservative star in 2011. He recently delivered a well-received speech at the Values Voter summit in Washington and has secured the backing of a star-studded lineup of conservatives including Sens. Jim DeMint, R-S.C., and Mike Lee, R-Utah. He was also recently featured on the cover of National Review.

Cruz's numbers are nothing to scoff at. But the presence of a financial juggernaut in the race changes the landscape. No one expects Cruz to top Dewhurst in the money chase. But Dewhurst's early doubling up of Cruz sends a strong signal about the strength of the lieutenant governor's candidacy.

So long as Cruz has enough money to buy the advertising necessary to get his message out across the state -- an expensive task -- he'll be a major factor. The more important quarterly deadline will be the next one, in January. With a March primary looming, candidates will rev up their television advertising early next year. Whatever the candidates have in the bank at that time will reveal more about what we can expect to see from them in a state with several major media markets.

President Obama's jobs bill was the topic of late-night jokes on Wednesday.

"President Obama had beer with four unemployed construction workers," Jimmy Fallon said. "Obama asked the guys what it was like to lose their jobs, and they were like, 'Oh, you'll see.'"

Don't miss today's Must See Moment at 2:33 where you can see Republican presidential candidate Rick Perry's new campaign ad based on some historical inaccuracies:

Take our late-night poll after the jump...

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee says they have surpassed their recruitment goals for the year, spotlighting 60 candidates in Republican-held and open seat districts as they try to regain control of the House in 2012.

The DCCC's milestone comes after a week in which they've had particular recruitment success. The party has picked up top-tier recruits in California, Oklahoma, Indiana, Florida and Wisconsin in recent days as they search for the 25 seats they need to win back the majority.

In California, former astronaut Jose Hernandez, the son of migrant farm workers who didn't learn English until he was a teen, announced this week he'll run against freshman Rep. Jeff Denham, R-Calif., in a district that looks much better for Democrats after redistricting.

Democrats also landed assistant U.S. Attorney Rob Wallace to run in the open seat race to succeed retiring Rep. Dan Boren, D-Okla. While this GOP-leaning district will be a tough one for Democrats to hold, if they are able to, it will take someone with Wallace's moderate, pro-gun and religion-friendly background to do so.

Other top candidates announcing already this month: retired Brig. Gen. Jonathan George against Rep. Todd Young, R-Ind., in the 9th District; former state Rep. Keith Fitzgerald against Rep. Vern Buchanan, R-Fla., in the 13th District; and business consultant Jamie Wall against Rep. Reid Ribble, R-Wis., in the 8th District.

Republicans were quick to point out that several of the candidates had run in 2010 and fallen short or were former members who were defeated last cycle.

"It's embarrassing for any candidate to be grouped with someone as crazy as Alan Grayson, but the biggest vulnerability for everyone on this list is that they all fully support President Obama's job-destroying agenda," said National Republican Congressional Committee spokeswoman Joanna Burgos.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. The Obama campaign and the DNC raise a combined $70 million during the third quarter, Scott Brown is accused of plagiarism and New Hampshire fires a warning shot at Nevada. Meanwhile, Rick Scott gets an anthropology lesson. Here's today's rundown:

7) "You want to use your tax dollars to educate more people who can't get jobs in anthropology?" That's Florida Gov. Rick Scott earlier this week, in remarks about the need to steer students towards degrees with better job prospects. Oh, by the way, Scott's daughter has an anthropology degree. So there's that.

6) How's this for a signal of support? Former Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory isn't officially a gubernatorial candidate yet (though he is almost certain to run) and he says the state's GOP congressional delegation has already endorsed him.

5) Here's an interesting development in Nebraska that could have implications for the national political landscape. The New York Times reports that American Crossroads filed a request on Wednesday with the Federal Election Commission asking for a ruling on whether it could "adopt the tactics" of Sen. Ben Nelson, D-Neb. What the group is referring to is several ads that feature Nelson discussing Social Security, among other issues. Campaign finance lawyers say the ads were produced and paid for by Democratic officials in Nebraska and D.C. -- with the Nelson's close involvement as their star.

A new Quinnipiac University poll released early Thursday shows that President Obama's approval rating in the reliably-blue state of New Jersey is at a record-low, and voters are split on reelecting Sen. Bob Menendez, D-N.J., complicating Democrats' efforts to retain control of the chamber.

The percentage of New Jersey voters who approve of the job Obama is doing as president has sunk to 43 percent, a point lower than a mid-August Quinnipiac survey. Fifty-two percent of voters disapprove of his job performance, identical to the previous poll.

Only 34 percent of independent voters approve of the job Obama is doing, while 60 percent disapprove. There is also a wide gender gap: Three-in-five men disapprove of his job performance, but half of women approve.

Voters are split evenly on whether Obama deserves to be reelected, with 47 percent saying that he does, and 48 percent saying he does not.

Despite his poor job ratings, Obama has slight advantages over the top Republican contenders in general election matchups, leading former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (47 percent-41 percent), Texas Gov. Rick Perry (49-36) and businessman Herman Cain (47-38), in the first head-to-head matchups Quinnipiac has conducted thus far in the state.

Herman Cain, the former CEO of Godfather's Pizza, is the preferred choice of a narrow plurality of Republican presidential primary voters in a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released late Wednesday, as the already-volatile race for the GOP nomination has again been turned on its head.

Cain leads former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, 27 percent to 23 percent, well within the survey's margin of error of +/- 5.3 percent. Texas Gov. Rick Perry is third, at 16 percent, followed by Rep. Ron Paul, R-Tex., at 11 percent. Trailing the pack are former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, with eight percent; Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., with five percent; and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, who is at three percent.

Six weeks ago, Perry was the national frontrunner, while Romney was clearly in second place. But as Perry has plummeted -- a result of poor debate performances and effective attacks from his GOP competitors -- Romney remains stuck at the exact same percentage. In that survey, conducted at the end of August, Perry had a clear lead over Romney, 38 percent to 23 percent, with Cain at just five percent.

After that poll six weeks ago, Democratic pollster Peter Hart declared that President Obama "was no longer the favorite" for reelection. This new survey contains slightly better news for the president and his party, though Obama's vulnerability is still very evident in the data.

Obama's approval rating is just 41 percent, identical to the late August survey. A slight majority, 51 percent, disapproves of his job performance. On the economy, 39 percent of Americans approve of the job Obama is doing, virtually identical to his 37-percent rating on that issue in August.

But other measures have improved slightly. His personal positive/negative rating is once again right-side-up: 46 percent have a positive opinion of him, while 40 percent have a negative opinion, better than the 44 percent positive/44 percent negative score he tallied in August.

Matched up against a generic Republican opponent, Obama has a slight advantage among registered voters, 44 percent to 42 percent. In August, the generic Republican had a four-point lead on that question.

Against specific Republican candidates, Obama leads by small margins. His two-point edge over Romney -- up from one point in August -- is within the margin of error. He notches 11-point and 12-point leads against Cain and Perry, respectively, a sign that Romney is, at this time, the more formidable general election candidate.

Updated at 10:01 p.m. to reflect Stabenow's figures to the nearest tenth of a million

Here's a wrap of the day's notable Senate/House third quarter FEC figures:

Senate:

-- Ohio Treasurer Josh Mandel had another big quarter, raising $1.5 million. It's not the $2.3 million he brought in last quarter, but it's still very impressive, especially considering the typically slower months during which the money was raised. Of note: Mandel did not release his cash on hand figure.

Mandel raised more than Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, who brought in $1.25 million. That's not a bad haul, but it's the second straight period in which he was outraised by Mandel. Brown finished with just under $4.2 million in the bank.

-- Sen. Orrin Hatch, R-Utah, raised $1.6 million and finished the third quarter with $4 million in the bank. We've said it before: money means less in a Utah nomination contest, given the convention system. But Hatch has no Republican opponent right now, so he should feel pretty good about his standing.

-- Sen. Debbie Stabenow, D-Mich., brought in $1.2 million, $200,000 more than former Rep. Pete Hoekstra, R-Mich., and about $450,000 more than Republican Clark Durant. Stabenow's number is not huge, but at the end of the third quarter, she had $5 million in the bank. Durant and Hoekstra will have to prove they can continue to put up good numbers.

-- Nebraska Republican Attorney General Jon Bruning raised over $583,000 and ended the period with nearly $1.6 million in the bank, a source relays. It's an improvement from last quarter for the GOP frontrunner, but he still has a ways to go. At the end of the second quarter, Sen. Ben Nelson, D-Neb., had nearly $3 million in the bank. Nebraska Republican state Sen. Deb Fischer raised over $228,000 and ended the period with $206,000 in the bank. Nothing yet from state Treasurer Don Stenberg, whose fundraising has been anemic thus far.

-- Rep. Rick Berg, R-N.D., raised over $650,000. That's a solid haul that put his campaign over the $1 million cash on hand mark on September 30. Berg has a primary opponent, but a Democratic challenger hasn't yet emerged.

-- Former Arizona Democratic Party Chairman Don Bivens raised $340,000 and will report $285,000 cash on hand, an adviser said. Bivens filed exploratory paperwork in July but his camapign says he didn't start raising money until mid to late August. We're still waiting to see whether former Surgeon General Richard Carmona, who is being courted for the race by President Obama, will run.

-- New Mexico long-shot Republican candidate Greg Sowards raised over $231,000 in the third quarter, of which $185,000 was a loan from the candidate. Sowards will report over $496,000 in the bank. Still no word from former Rep. Heather Wilson or Lt. Gov. John Sanchez.

House:

-- It was a star-studded list of donors that helped Rep. Howard Berman, D-Calif., raise nearly $820,000 this quarter for an inevitable primary matchup with fellow Rep. Brad Sherman, D-Calif. Among Berman's donors -- actor Tom Hanks and his actress/producer wife Rita Wilson (who listed her occupation as "homemaker"), "West Wing" producer Aaron Sorkin, funnyman producer Judd Apatow and director Steven Spielberg. Some of Berman's fellow Democrats are showing him love as well -- he got checks from Sen. Dianne Feinstein and fellow California Democrats Henry Waxman and Jackie Speier.

Rep. Rick Berg, R-N.D., raised over $650,000 for his Senate bid during the third quarter, according to a source close to his campaign. It's a solid haul that put his campaign over the $1 million cash on hand mark on September 30.

Berg had raised about $461,000 during the second quarter, after launching his campaign in mid-May. He had just under $550,000 when that quarter came to a close.

Berg has a primary challenger, Duane Sand, who launched his candidacy in early August. Sand hasn't released his fundraising numbers yet, but his number is expected to fall well short of Berg's mark.

Sand, who has repeatedly made unsuccessful bids for statewide office, raised $131,600 in the second quarter (back when he was considering a run for Berg's House seat).

On the Democratic side, former state Rep. Pam Gulleson was considered a strong potential candidate, but last month she decided to mount a bid for Berg's House seat instead. Former North Dakota Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp is still mulling a run for the seat.

Tuesday night's debate solidified Mitt Romney's status as the front-runner in the Republican presidential primary -- a development apparently not lost on President Obama, whose senior adviser, David Axelrod, launched a sweeping offensive against the former Massachusetts governor Wednesday.

In a telephone call with reporters, Axelrod hammered the line of attack that largely torpedoed Romney's 2008 campaign, accusing him of being a serial flip-flopper.

For good measure, Axelrod added that despite Romney's protests, the health care law he signed in Massachusetts "was in fact a model for much of what we did on our health care plan.''

The pretext for the phone call with reporters was Romney's stated opposition during Tuesday's Republican debate in New Hampshire to extending the payroll tax cut. Romney dismissed Obama's proposed reduction for temporary reductions in the payroll tax as a "temporary little Band-Aid'' and said he favors "permanent changes to the tax code.''

Axelrod contended the tax cut will "put money in the pockets of middle-class and lower-income Americans'' and would save the United States from another recession.

"The most appalling thing about it was, just two months ago, Gov. Romney was adamant in support of extending this tax cut,'' Axelrod said.

Asked for evidence that Romney previously supported the payroll tax cut, the Democratic National Committee pointed to an interview he did with Neil Cavuto of Fox News. Asked if he would favor a temporary extension, Romney said, "I'm all in favor of keeping taxes down and keeping burdens down in American businesses and employers. I want employers and entrepreneurs to have every incentive to open businesses and to start creating jobs.''

Updated 3:32 p.m

My column today looked at the challenges national Democrats are facing in landing a marquee Hispanic candidate for statewide office this election cycle. I argued that President Obama's effort to personally recruit former Bush Surgeon General Richard Carmona into the Arizona Senate race is a telltale sign of how important it is for Democrats to have a diverse crop of Senate candidates.

But House Democrats are having much more success on that front, landing a number of compelling Hispanic recruits - not just in gerrymandered seats drawn to elect Latinos but in swing districts that the party is looking to pick up in 2012.

The biggest potential star on the scene is astronaut Jose Hernandez, who just kicked off his campaign against freshman Rep. Jeff Denham, R-Calif. He's the son of migrant farm workers who has a made-for-TV story. He learned to speak English when he was 12, and later became a research engineer for NASA. In a Republican-leaning south Florida district, Democrats landed Luis Garcia, the first Cuban-American fire-chief of Miami, to run against scandal-plagued Rep. David Rivera, R-Fla. Former Albuquerque mayor Martin Chavez, a centrist Democrat, is running for the open seat being vacated by Rep. Martin Heinrich, D-N.M, as is more-liberal state senator Eric Griego.

There are several other Hispanic Democratic recruits in the pipeline, preparing to run for battleground seats: State senator Michael Rubio is preparing to run for a newly-drawn seat in California's Central Valley - in a race that is shaping up to be a major barnburner. State Sen. Ruben Kihuen is looking to run in a new district in Nevada that will have sizable Hispanic representation.

Rep. Allen West, R-Fla., raised over $1.9 million dollars during the third quarter, a total that is easily the highest of any House member so far this cycle, and even even tops the quarterly haul of several sitting senators.

The top two Democratic challengers to West announced eye-popping totals of their own on Tuesday, but the freshman's nearly $2 million haul was more than four times the amount raised by the money leader on the Democratic side. Former West Palm Beach Mayor Lois Frankel pulled in over $415,000, while businessman Patrick Murphy raised $313,000.

Always a prodigious fundraiser, this was West's best quarter ever; and his strong showing comes during the typically less productive third quarter of an off-election year.

West hasn't yet reported his cash on hand number, but in the past he's had a high burn rate that accompanies his high intake. In the second quarter, he raised $1.6 million and spent over $595,000, leaving him with $1.2 million in the bank. So far this cycle, he's raised $4.1 million for what's sure to be a tough reelection bid, and boasts that his latest monster quarter came from over 42,100 individual donors.

"The people of the 22nd Congressional District of Florida along with Americans from across the United States have heard our message and support a strong constitutional conservative in the House of Representatives," West said in a statement. "Our country will always face challenges, but with principled, pragmatic, passionate and patriotic leadership, we will always emerge stronger as a nation and as a people."

In his column today, Josh Kraushaar looks at Democrats' struggles to recruit Hispanic candidates in key battlegrounds. It's latest troubling sign for a party faced with both a golden opportunity and substantial challenges when it comes to wooing Hispanic voters.

The latest Census results showed significant growth in the Hispanic population in states like Texas and Arizona (that are not Democratic-heavy) as well as in battleground states like North Carolina, Virginia and Florida. Pair that with exit poll data from the last election showing 60 percent of Latino voters supported Democratic House candidates, and the upside for the party is easy to see.

But there is downside. The economy has hit Hispanics particularly hard. That in part, explains Obama's declining approval rating among Hispanics.

It also means there is an opportunity for Republicans to counter with message of their own. While they struggled to do that in many places last cycle, voters did elect three statewide officials in battleground states, all of whom are mentioned as potential vice presidential candidates in 2012.

This cycle, former Texas Solicitor General Ted Cruz is the rising Hispanic Republican star that has excited many conservatives. The Senate candidate spoke candidly with Hotline On Call over the weekend at the Values Voters summit in Washington about the errors Republicans have made when trying to attract Hispanic voters.

"Typically, Republicans make one of two mistakes. One, some candidates condescend and patronize the Hispanic community," Cruz said.

"The second thing some Republicans do is they essentially adopt Democrat-lite; they think they way to reach out to the Hispanic community is to propose a partial welfare state," he continued. "And that is a losing strategy."

Former congressional candidate and businessman Tim Burns on Wednesday formally entered the Republican race for U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania, further scrambling an already competitive race for the state's GOP nomination.

The field of Republican candidates vying to take on Democratic Sen. Bob Casey is already crowded, including ex-coal executive Tom Smith, former Rick Santorum aide Marc Scaringi, and former congressional candidate Steve Welch. Ex-state Rep. Sam Rohrer, who ran for governor last year, is also considering a campaign. No one has emerged as a frontrunner, with Republicans struggling to land a consensus candidate.

The 43-year-old Burns, who hails from southwestern Pennsylvania, ran for Congress twice last year, falling first in a May special election to replace the late Rep. John Murtha and again in the general election. He lost to Democrat Mark Critz each time.

Failed congressional runs aren't usually a good springboard for a Senate bid, but Burns has a compelling resume. He started his own pharmaceutical technology company, giving him a business background that appeals to Republicans. He also has the experience of running a hotly contested race before: His special election battle against Critz was closely followed by the national media, testing him politically in a way his competitors have not been.

Republicans have faced setbacks recruiting against Casey, who maintains strong popularity despite President Obama's sagging approval ratings in the Keystone State. GOP Reps. Charlie Dent, Jim Gerlach and Tim Murphy passed on a run. But given Obama's challenges in Pennsylvania, the state has become a top target for Republicans, who believe that Casey will be weighed down by the president.

By now, it's a well-worn refrain from most Republican Senate candidates: President Obama has, overall, done a lousy job in his nearly three years in office. But if you're Linda Lingle, running in the state where the president grew up and enjoys a positive approval rating that defies his national standing, you don't go quite so far.

In an interview with Hotline On Call late Tuesday afternoon, the former governor, who announced her candidacy the same day, was careful not to level too much criticism against the president. In doing so, Lingle exhibited an acute awareness of the necessity of crossover votes in a state likely to support Obama's reelection bid by an overwhelming margin in 2012.

"The president's handling of the economy and the jobs issue, I think, was less than what we needed when we needed it, Lingle told On Call. "I think he over-focused on other things rather than jobs."

But Lingle also made sure to note that she does not disagree with Obama on everything.

"I will say there are areas where the president and I are in agreement," she noted. "I would say most of them tend to be in the education area."

And when asked directly whether she is committed to voting for the eventual Republican presidential nominee, Lingle said she was likely to do so, but offered no guarantees.

"I likely would be voting for the Republican nominee. Again, if it was Ron Paul for instance, likely not," Lingle said.

According to aggregated Gallup Daily tracking data from January through June of this year, Obama's approval rating in Hawaii was 56 percent. In only six other states was the president's number better. Obama won the Aloha state with over 70 percent of the vote in 2008. So it's easy to see why Lingle's rhetoric isn't identical to the rest of the national GOP chorus.

Lingle's message is one of balance more than heated opposition.

"What I'm going to be talking with people about in my state is why it's so important to have a balanced delegation in the U.S. Senate," Lingle said. "People are predicting that the Republicans might take control of the majority in the Senate and if they do, it's going to be very important that we have at least one of our Senators with a foot in that camp."

The latest presidential debate was fodder for late-night jokes on Tuesday. In light of National Coming Out Day, Jimmy Kimmel presented a debate segment in which all of the Republican candidates were challenged on their (personal) views on gay rights.

"You've all taken positions against gay rights but let's be honest," the faux moderator said to the candidates. "If Brad Pitt or Angelina Jolie would have come up to you and offer you a night of one-on-one homosexual passion, how many of you would go for it?" Watch to see who raises their hands.

And don't miss today's Must See Moment at 2:30 where you can see where Rick Santorum was really seated in last night's presidential debate:

Take our late-night poll after the jump...

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Romney turned in another solid debate performance, but Cain's 9/9/9 plan was the dominant topic of discussion. Meanwhile, Bill Nelson raises about $2 million in Florida, while Ben Nelson and Jon Tester vote no on the president's jobs bill, and Linda Lingle looks east for inspiration. Here's today's rundown:

9) Cue the Kurtis Blow song. President Obama offered this politics-as-basketball analogy in front of donors including current former NBA stars in Florida on Tuesday: "This is like the second quarter, maybe the third. And we've still got a lot of work to do. ... But I want everyone to know I'm a fourth-quarter player. I don't miss my shots in the fourth quarter."

8) Which senator does former Hawaii Gov. Linda Lingle look at as a model for type of senator she'd like to be? Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine. "She's a woman, she's a moderate, she comes from a big Democrat state. So, I've talked with her a lot over the past few months. I think she's the kind of senator I'd want to be," Lingle said. Stay tuned to Hotline On Call later this morning for the rest of our interview with Lingle.

7) All hail the class of 2009: Both New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell have record-high approval ratings, according to new polls out Wednesday. Quinnipiac pegs Christie's approval rating in the Garden State at 54 percent, up significantly from two months ago. McDonnell's approval rating is up to a whopping 62 percent, according to a Quinnipiac poll in the Commonwealth.

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie's approval rating has spiked after announcing that he would not seek the 2012 Republican presidential nomination, with the bulk of the swing coming from women, a group with which he had struggled, according to two new polls released early Wednesday.

In a new Quinnipiac University poll, Christie's approval rating is up 11 points since the previous survey, conducted in mid-August. Now, 58 percent of Garden State voters approve of the job he is doing, while 38 percent disapprove. Two months ago, voters were split, 47 percent to 46 percent, on Christie's job performance.

Meanwhile, a new Monmouth University poll also out Wednesday shows Christie at a new high among all adults, with a 54 percent approval rating, up from 48 percent in early August.

Women have swung in favor of Christie by a significant margin over the past two months. In August, 55 percent of female voters disapproved of Christie in a Quinnipiac poll, but now a narrow majority approves of his job performance. In the Monmouth poll, 53 percent of women approve of the job he is doing, up from 45 percent in August.

A majority of voters in the Quinnipiac poll think the Christie-for-president chatter was good for the Garden State, while less than a quarter say it was bad for the state. And the vast majority of voters think Christie's political career will take him beyond Trenton: 73 percent think he has a future after Drumthwacket, while just 22 percent believe he does not, according to Quinnipiac.

Eight Republican presidential candidates are gathered in Hanover, New Hampshire for a debate sponsored by Bloomberg News and The Washington Post. National Journal's editors will use this space to offer real-time analysis of the debate throughout the evening.

9:48 Kathy Kiely: Perry says blame Obama for income disparities but non partisan analysis says the gap between the haves and have-nots has been widening since 1979, when Barack Obama was 18 years old.

9:33 Kathy Kiely: Paul says Cain is an "insider" and that Obama adviser Paul Volcker is one of the few Fed chairs who have done some good. Who knew?

9:30 Kathy Kiely: Perry's embrace of the energy industry is an intriguing and unexpected strategy. Most Texas pols go out of their way to look like they are not a captive of Big Energy. He, on the other hand, is an unabashed derrick-hugger.

9:26 Kathy Kiely: Santorum says he opposed TARP but Pennsylvania voters deprived him of a the opportunity to make that difficult choice. He was defeated in 2006. The TARP vote came in 2008.

9:25 Sean Sullivan: And in doing so, he also looks past Cain, giving his question (and more mic time) to the candidate who could take votes away from both Perry and Cain.

9:23 Julie Sobel: Romney chooses to direct his question at Bachmann, not Perry - denying the Texas governor a chance to get in a back and forth with him.

9:12 Jessica Taylor: Huntsman tries to get in a jab at Perry over Mormonism, and it's like his other jokes -- awkward and cringeworthy.

8:57 Sean Sullivan: Perry's persistent effort to pivot to energy appears forced. And in a debate that has been more policy heavy than previous outings, saying that we don't need to be talking about this or that policy isn't winning him points with voters who already think he has been short on specifics.

8:46 Tim Alberta: If tonight's debate is supposed to resemble a family dinner table discussion on the economy, Gingrich is embracing the role of the grumpy grandfather with his entertaining yet predictable rants about every subject. Paul is the zany uncle whose revolutionary talk makes everyone uncomfortable. Perry is the new son-in-law who struggles to find his voice when all eyes turn to him. And Romney is the sober, authoritative father figure at the head of table, driving the pace and tone of the dialogue.

8:45 Kathy Kiely: Experience in Congress counts: Gingrich has deftly interrupted twice, getting two extra chances to speak. If you've spent as many years in the House as he has, you know how to interrupt.

8:44 Josh Kraushaar: This open-ended debate format is good for Huntsman, but not at all ideal for Perry to mount a comeback. Perry's much more comfortable on talking points, and many of the panel's questions don't lend themselves to short, snappy answers.

As Wisconsin Democrats mount another recall campaign in an attempt to oust Republican Gov. Scott Walker from office, Rep. Tammy Baldwin, D-Wis., said she's fully behind the recall effort.

"There is deep frustration and dissatisfaction by the people of Wisconsin with this Governor," Baldwin said in a statement. "Everyday citizens are now forming a grassroots movement to exercise their rights under state law to trigger a recall. I will stand with those who stand with middle class families, and with the people who want their voices heard over the powerful special interests."

"I'm running for US Senate because we must rebuild our economy, and that means strong education and a commitment to job creation -- not more special tax giveaways for the super-rich and powerful special interests," she continued.

One of the most liberal members of Congress according to National Journal rankings, Baldwin has been attempting to appeal to the broader Wisconsin electorate for the Senate campaign. Siding with the recall helps her with the Democratic base, but it's an open question whether less-partisan voters will embrace the state party's efforts.

Meanwhile, Wisconsin state Assembly Speaker Jeff Fitzgerald announced Tuesday that he is running for the Senate, joining a crowded Republican field that includes former Wisconsin governor Tommy Thompson and former congressman Mark Neumann.

Texas Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst's Senate campaign released some eye-popping fundraising numbers on Tuesday for his first quarter in the race: Dewhurst took in $2.64 million over the last three months, and made a $2 million personal contribution to his campaign, leaving him with more than $4 million cash on hand.

Despite Dewhurst's fundraising juggernaut, former Texas Solicitor General Ted Cruz sees a path to victory for his upstart candidacy in the Republican primary. Cruz has some reason for optimism. His campaign has captured the attention of the national conservative movement, highlighted by his appearance on the cover of National Review last week.

"We have incredible momentum," Cruz said in an interview with Hotline on Call at the Values Voter Summit this past weekend, before Dewhurst reported his numbers. "We're seeing all across the state of Texas and nationally a level of enthusiasm and excitement about this race that is quite simply breathtaking."

But Cruz realizes he faces a daunting task in his matchup with Dewhurst. He identified two strengths Dewhurst brings to the race: statewide name recognition and huge spending potential, thanks to his personal wealth and fundraising prowess.

"His strategy is simple: Write a ginormous check and flood the airwaves with paid tv ads," Cruz said.

But Dewhurst's advantages end there, according to Cruz. He says GOP primary voters will be turned off by what he characterizes as Dewhurst's moderate record as lieutenant governor. And Cruz argues that the anti-establishment mood in the country also hurts Dewhurst, who has been in office since 2003.

"If he believes that primary voters are looking for another incumbent, establishment candidate, I think he is badly misreading the mood of the times," Cruz said.

Updated 5:00 p.m.

Less than a week before former Hawaii Gov. Linda Lingle entered the Senate race in Hawaii, former Democratic Rep. Ed Case warned that the former Republican governor could win if Hawaii Democrats nominate his primary opponent.

Case, who is also running for the Senate, doubled down on his electability pitch in an interview with Hotline On Call last Thursday, arguing that Hawaii voters want change and there is a real risk they will choose a Republican if not offered a Democrat who can chart a new course.

"The question is, presented a change with an R and a status quo Democrat, where are the voters of Hawai'i going to go?" Case said, before Lingle's announcement. "I think the voters are perfectly capable of selecting the Republican candidate."

Hirono lost to Lingle in the 2002 governor's race, after beating Case in the primary that year.

Case's message has become central in his primary campaign against Democratic Rep. Mazie Hirono. He irritated national Democrats earlier this year when he released a poll showing himself leading Republican Linda Lingle but Hirono losing to the former governor. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee immediately pushed back, pointing to their own poll showing Hirono winning against Lingle.

The poll, conducted by Democratic pollster Mark Mellman, showed Lingle's job approval at just 40 percent with 56 percent of voters disapproving. Lingle trailed in a head-to-head with Congresswoman Hirono, 54 to 35 percent.

When asked about his decision to release his own poll indicating Lingle's strength in a general election, Case did not back down.

"I think what [DSCC executive director] Guy's [Cecil] concern was, in my releasing the poll, was that it said a Republican could beat a Democrat in Hawaii and of course, from his perspective, that was not something he wanted publicized," Case said.

But Case also highlighted Lingle's vulnerabilities in the interview, and said that he planned to tie her to the more conservative elements within the Republican party, including Sarah Palin (who Lingle introduced at the 2008 Republican National Convention) and George W. Bush, two unpopular figures in the Aloha State. He released a statement today accusing Lingle of "desert[ing] Hawai'i at crucial times to campaign for mainland Republicans."

The race to hold presidential nominating contests first has become a quadrennial fact of life. This year, Florida's decision to hold its presidential primary on January 31 forced Iowa, South Carolina and Nevada to move their contests up a month. New Hampshire is certain to follow, once Secretary of State Bill Gardner has his final say.

The cascading dominoes are exactly what national Republicans and Democrats had hoped to avoid. The two parties had worked together for years to hammer out an agreement that would have prevented either nominating contest from conflicting with winter holidays; in fact, solving the primary process was supposed to be one of Michael Steele's legacies at the Republican National Committee.

But Steele now sees the race to the front of the pack as a blow to the national party, one he says demonstrates just how little power each side has over its affiliates in the states.

"As chairman then and certainly now, I consider this 'race to the top' as undermining the ability of the party to organize itself and create the smoothest glide-path for the candidates," Steele said in an email. "The goal was to avoid having primaries and caucuses in December (which could happen now). Certainly one of the first things I recognized as the committee began its work was there were still 'little battles' among the states about who should go first and which plan was the best. But we navigated those rougher waters early on to focus on creating a model for future primaries. I believe we did that."

As the Obamas celebrate their dog Bo's third birthday this week, David Letterman points out some facts that you might not know about the first family's pet:

Bo "has the lowest approval rating of any White House dog going into an election year," Letterman joked. "Do you know the difference between Obama's dog and the economy? ... Obama fixed the dog."

Don't miss today's Must See Moment at 1:45 where C-SPAN, inspired by ESPN's body issue, presents its own:

Take our late-night poll after the jump...

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Elizabeth Warren posts an eye-popping fundraising haul in Massachusetts, while David Dewhurst makes a strong statement in Texas. Romney is looking strong in New Hampshire and takes the lead in the Iowa caucuses. And Linda Lingle could make Hawaii an unlikely Senate battleground.

8) Second verse, same as the first? Wisconsin Democrats are mounting another recall campaign, this time attempting to oust GOP Gov. Scott Walker from office. Democrats need to gather 540,000 signatures in 60 days in order to start the recall process. The move was announced by party chairman Mike Tate on MSNBC during Ed Schultz's show -- during the Milwaukee Brewers' NLCS playoff game

But the move doesn't come without risk. As the New York Times writes: "Some supporters of President Obama have expressed concern about complicating the president's re-election efforts with the contentious fight over the governor."

It will be interested to hear what Rep. Tammy Baldwin, D-Wis., has to say about the recall efforts as she runs for the open Senate seat. One of the more liberal members of Congress, she's been trying to position herself to the center for the Senate campaign. Siding with the recall helps her with the Democratic base, but it's an open question whether less-partisan voters will embrace the state party's efforts.

7) Several Senate candidates are already posting big fundraising numbers: Massachusetts Democrat Elizabeth Warren is poised to be the big fundraising winner this quarter, bringing in over $3.1 million with assistance from national groups excited about her campaign against Sen. Scott Brown, R-Mass. Brown did well himself, raising $1.55 million, and now has a healthy $10.5 million cash-on-hand. Meanwhile, Texas GOP lieutenant governor David Dewhurst posted a big initial haul, bringing in $2.64 million. It's a strong total, but money evaporates fast in the Lone Star State.

Former Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine and former Sen. George Allen, R-Va., remain deadlocked in the race to become the Old Dominion's next senator, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll released Tuesday.

Kaine leads Allen, 45 percent to 44 percent. In all three surveys Quinnipiac has conducted in the race this year, the two likely candidates have never been separated by more than a point.

Each candidate holds members of their own party: Kaine leads among Democrats, 85 percent to 7 percent, while Allen dominates among Republicans, 86 percent to 8 percent. Allen also leads among independents, 46 percent to 37 percent.

Virginia voters have positive opinions of both candidates: Kaine's favorable/unfavorable rating is 47 percent/29 percent, while Allen's is a similar 45 percent/28 percent.

The Senate matchup closely tracks with the presidential race in the key swing state. President Obama trails former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, 45 percent to 44 percent. But Obama leads businessman Herman Cain, 45 percent to 43 percent, and Texas Gov. Rick Perry, 47 percent to 42 percent.

Obama's approval rating has improved somewhat, up from 40 percent in September to 45 percent now. But he remains underwater: 52 percent of voters disapprove of the job he is doing, slightly better than the 54 percent who disapproved last month.

Among a subsample of Republicans, Cain has pulled into a tie with Romney: The two candidates are deadlocked at 21 percent. Perry is at only 11 percent, less than half of the 25 percent he drew in the previous Quinnipiac poll last month.

"The race among Virginia Republicans remains far, far from settled," said Quinnipiac University Polling Institute Assistant Director Peter Brown.

"Romney's support remains relatively stable while other candidates rise and fall around him," Brown added.

Former Hawaii Republican governor Linda Lingle will announce she's running for the Senate for the seat of retiring Sen. Daniel Akaka, D-Hawaii, according to the Honolulu Star-Advertiser. Her decision gives Republicans a shot at competing in the state's open-seat race, given her past ability to win in a solidly Democratic state.

The paper reported she will be announcing her candidacy Tuesday at a luncheon with business leaders in Honolulu.

Lingle served two terms as governor from 2002 until 2010, after serving as mayor of Maui. She narrowly defeated Rep. Mazie Hirono, D-Hawaii, to win her first term and office and won re-election with 63 percent of the vote four years later. In the Senate race, she could face a rematch against Hirono, who is facing former Rep. Ed Case in the Democratic primary.

Case irritated national Democrats earlier this year when he released a poll that showed Hirono losing to Lingle. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee immediately pushed back by pointing to their own poll showing Hirono winning against Lingle.

Hawaii is a comfortably Democratic state, and gave President Obama his largest margin of victory in his birth state. He won 72 percent of the vote in the 2008 presidential race. But Republicans have been competitive there recently. In addition to Lingle's success, George W. Bush carried 45 percent of the vote in the 2004 presidential election. That year, former Vice President Dick Cheney made a last-minute trek to the state, in hopes of picking it off for the Republicans.

Obama's popularity in his home state should bolster downballot Democrats, but he wasn't able to boost Illinois Senate nominee Alexi Giannoulias, who lost last year's Illinois Senate race to now-Sen. Mark Kirk, R-Ill.

Lingle could be the third Jewish Republican Senate nominee this election cycle - a time when Republicans are amping up their criticism over Obama's treatment of Israel. In Ohio, state Treasurer Josh Mandel is expected to win the Republican nomination to face Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio. And in Florida, former state House Majority Leader Adam Hasner is facing a competitive primary for the nomination to take on Sen. Bill Nelson, D-Fla.

The 2012 Republican presidential primary calendar is still in flux, but new NBC News-Marist polls out early Tuesday show Mitt Romney leading the field in both Iowa and New Hampshire, with his lead in the Granite State is considerably more significant.

The former Massachusetts governor leads among likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire with 45 percent, trailed by businessman Herman Cain and Rep. Ron Paul, R-Tex., both of whom are at 13 percent. Texas Gov. Rick Perry is at just seven percent, and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman trails the field, with five percent. Eight percent of likely primary voters are undecided.

In the Hawkeye State, Romney's lead is far more precarious: He leads Cain, 26 percent to 20 percent. Paul is at 12 percent, while Perry and Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., are at 11 percent each.

The precipitous falls of Perry and Bachmann in Iowa are notable. Cain has claimed the Tea Party mantle in the state -- for the time being -- garnering the support of 31 percent of likely caucusgoers who support the Tea Party, and more than 40 percent of those who "strongly" support the Tea Party.

The early-state polls also show each is setting up to be a battleground in the general election. President Obama's approval rating in Iowa is only at 42 percent, and just 38 percent of New Hampshire voters approve of the job he is doing.

Romney leads Obama in New Hampshire, 49 percent to 40 percent. In Iowa, Obama has a slight lead, 43 percent to 40 percent, though he is still far from keeping the state in his column in 2012.

Mitt Romney, Herman Cain and Texas Gov. Rick Perry comprise the top tier of the field of Republican presidential candidates before the next in a series of televised debates, according to two new polls of national GOP primary voters released Monday.

In each survey, Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, leads, followed by Cain and Perry, whose fortunes have reversed over the past two weeks, with the former Godfather's Pizza CEO climbing into second place and the Texas governor sinking from first to third.

In the first poll, conducted for the Washington Post and Bloomberg News, the co-sponsors of Tuesday's debate in Hanover, N.H., 24 percent of Republican and Republican-leaning adults say they prefer Romney for the GOP presidential nomination. Cain is preferred by 16 percent, while 13 percent prefer Perry. Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, is a distant fourth, with six percent.

Cain runs stronger in a new Gallup poll, trailing Romney by just two points, 20 percent to 18 percent. Perry is at 15 percent, with Paul at eight percent. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is at seven percent, with other candidates at five percent or less.

Perry has lost more than half his support since the previous Gallup survey in mid-September, when he led the field with 31 percent of the vote. Romney has also seen his share of the vote drop, from 24 percent last month to 20 percent now. Cain, on the other hand, has risen from five percent, to 18 percent.

Democratic Senate candidate Elizabeth Warren raised $3.15 million during the third quarter, a huge figure that outpaces Sen. Scott Brown's, R-Mass., haul by over $1.5 million.

Warren launched her exploratory committee on Aug. 18, giving her roughly six weeks to raise money during the period. Also impressive is the number of small donors who gave to the Democrat's campaign.

"The overwhelming majority of those contributions -- 96 percent -- were $100 or less. More than 11,000 people here in Massachusetts contributed," the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau architect wrote in an email to supporters on Monday.

Brown raised $1.55 million during the third quarter and ended the period with $10.5 million in the bank, his campaign announced Monday. Warren did not release her cash on hand total.

City Year co-founder Alan Khazei, who was the big money winner on the Democratic side last quarter, before Warren entered the race, brought in $365,000 during the third quarter and ended the period with $750,000 in the bank.

What we at The Hotline learned this week:

-- Winning over Hispanics is a major priority for the White House and Democratic campaign strategists, but they face some serious challenges in 2012. With the economy disproportionately impacting the Latino community, Democrats have a tougher case to make than in 2008. And the GOP has been showcasing its Latino statewide officials (Rubio/Martinez/Sandoval) as potential presidential running mates, while Democrats are still looking for a statewide standard-bearer.

That makes President Obama's courtship of former Surgeon General Richard Carmona for the open seat Senate race in Arizona so important. A strong Hispanic Democratic Senate candidate in the Southwest could boost Latino turnout, helping the president and other down-ballot Democrats. Aside from Carmona, the party's best hope for a Hispanic gubernatorial or Senate nominee lies in New Mexico state Auditor Hector Balderas, running against Rep. Martin Heinrich, D-N.M., in a primary or Ricardo Sanchez in Texas, whose campaign has gotten off to a slow start.

-- Texas Gov. Rick Perry potentially stands to gain from the format of the next GOP presidential debate, which will be focused exclusively on the economy. Perry has struggled in the previous debates, most notably on non-economic issues.

While the economy is front and center in the GOP race, this weekend was a reminder of how quickly other issues like faith and religion can steal the spotlight. A pastor who introduced Perry at the Values Voters summit labeled Mormonism a "cult" and the story dominated the weekend news cycle. But the way Mitt Romney has deflected questions about religion is another example of a lesson learned from a 2008 campaign in which the former Bay State governor fell short.

-- While conventional wisdom says the Virginia Senate race will be one of the most expensive contests in the country next year, fundraising numbers are on the decline for at least one major candidate. Former Sen. George Allen, R-Va., reported on Friday that he raised over $900,000 for the third quarter, marking the second consecutive quarter of decline for the former governor and the first time this year he failed to break $1 million. Meanwhile, former Democratic National Committee Chairman Tim Kaine did not post his numbers. His campaign did not respond to the question of whether he broke $1 million for the quarter.

Mitt Romney continues to hold a wide, but soft lead in the first-in-the-nation New Hampshire Republican presidential primary, and the former Massachusetts governor is well-positioned to capture the state's four electoral votes against President Obama, according to a new WMUR-TV/University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll released late Friday.

Romney leads with 37 percent of the vote, up slightly from 35 percent early in the summer and well clear of upstart businessman Herman Cain, who is second at 12 percent. Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, runs third at nine percent. Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Jon Huntsman, the former Utah governor who most recently served as U.S. ambassador to China, tied for fourth at eight percent.

The more moderate Huntsman is banking on New Hampshire, recently moving his campaign headquarters from Florida to the Granite State, while Giuliani is still pondering a bid but is considered unlikely to run.

Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who has said he intends to compete in the Granite State's primary, is well behind Romney and the other leaders, tying former House Speaker Newt Gingrich with just four percent of the vote.

Former Texas Solicitor General Ted Cruz brought a packed crowd to its feet Friday afternoon at the Values Voters summit in Washington, serving up a heaping portion of red meat in a 15-minute speech focused on taking a stand against President Obama, whom he dubbed the nation's most radical president ever.

"Barack Obama is the most radical president this nation has ever had," Cruz said. "He is a true believer and what he believes in is government -- government control of the economy and our lives."

Cruz, the conservative upstart in the Texas Senate race who has won the support of prominent national conservative figures and groups including Sens. Jim DeMint, R-S.C., and Mike Lee, R-Utah, has attracted a lot of national buzz. He even recently appeared on the cover of National Review. But in the Lone Star State, he remains an underdog to Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst in the GOP primary. On Friday, however, Cruz's speech was tailored for a national audience.

"I am convinced the most long-lasting legacy of President Obama is going to be a new generation of leaders standing up to fight for liberty," Cruz said.

Cruz also delved into his record as solicitor general, devoting a notable portion of his speech to his accomplishments during his five and-a-half-year tenure as the state's attorney in front of the Supreme Court and federal courts.

"Meet the Press" will be live in Chicago on Sunday with exclusive live interviews with Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel and House Budget Chairman Paul Ryan, R-Wis. In light of the debate over the American Jobs Act, Emanuel will address the local economy, as well as his transition into office and his former boss' reelection effort, while Ryan will discuss the economy and jobs at the national level.

Meanwhile, former Godfather's Pizza CEO Herman Cain continues his book tour, making appearances on both "Face the Nation" and "State of the Union." With stops on "This Week" and "Fox News Sunday" last week following his surge in the Florida straw poll, Cain only needs a quick spot with NBC's David Gregory to round out the top five.

As the Republican presidential field begins to tighten, former Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pa., and Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., will be guests on "Fox News Sunday" and "State of the Union," respectively, hoping to inject some excitement back into their flagging campaigns.

Get the full listings after the jump.

Former Sen. George Allen, R-Va., announced Friday he's raised over $900,000 during the third quarter -- but that's a $200,000 drop from Allen's second quarter $1.1 million haul.

Allen started October with $1.8 million cash on hand, and has now raised $3.5 million since he announced his campaign in January.

Former Democratic National Committee chairman Tim Kaine has not released his latest numbers. The former governor entered the race in the second quarter and posted a $2.2 million haul for that three-month period with $1.8 million in the bank.

Meanwhile, Tea Party activist Jamie Radtke raised more than $116,000 for the third quarter. Her campaign did not released cash-on-hand numbers, stating she has raised more than $370,000 during the campaign.

Sen. Scott Brown, R-Mass., continues to enjoy remarkably high personal and job-related poll numbers, but Democratic challenger Elizabeth Warren remains stubbornly close in a 2012 election matchup, according to a new survey of Bay State voters released Friday.

Brown's lead over Warren, according to the Western New England University poll, is just five points: 47 percent to 42 percent. Warren has benefited from the announcement of her candidacy last month; in March, Brown sported a 17-point lead over Warren.

Independents -- the largest voting bloc in Massachusetts -- propel Brown to his lead, breaking for him, 57 percent to 32 percent.

Brown leads City Year co-founder Alan Khazei by a wider margin: 52 percent to 35 percent.

Results of the poll are similar to a UMass-Lowell/Boston Herald poll released earlier this week that showed Brown with a three-point lead over Warren.

Brown's job rating remains overwhelmingly positive: 54 percent of voters approve, while 30 percent disapprove. That is down slightly from March, when 57 percent approved, and 24 percent disapproved.

Brown's personal ratings are also very positive: 52 percent have a favorable opinion of the Wrentham Republican, while 27 percent have an unfavorable opinion.

Sen. Richard Lugar, R-Ind., had another productive fundraising period, putting further pressure on state Treasurer Richard Mourdock to show that he can keep pace in the money chase.

Lugar's campaign announced the incumbent raised $840,000 during the third quarter and finished the period with over $3.8 million in the bank. Mourdock, who has struggled to raise money so far, has not yet released his third quarter figures. Mourdock ended the second quarter with just $214,000 in the bank.

"We are confident that our 3Q receipts will be greater than our 2nd quarter figures when we file with the FEC next week," said Mourdock spokesman Chris Conner.

Meanwhile, national Tea Party group FreedomWorks is expected endorse Mourdock later this month, according to sources. FreedomWorks PAC announced Friday it will be making an October 21st announcement in Indianapolis regarding the Senate race, but the group has not specified what the nature of the announcement is.

Over time, Mourdock has earned the backing of other national Tea Party and conservative groups and figures including the Tea Party Express and former Nevada Senate candidate Sharron Angle. But none of the endorsements will mean much unless they translate to an uptick in the Republican's fundraising pace.

As Elizabeth Warren continues to get national attention for her Senate campaign, the Democratic field in Massachusetts is shrinking.

Non-profit executive Bob Massie officially put an end to his Senate campaign Friday morning, just a week after another Democrat, Newton Mayor Setti Warren, ended his own bid.

"Today I am withdrawing from the race for the Democratic nomination for the United States Senate," Massie told supporters Thursday evening. "I am doing so because the momentum of the race has shifted so profoundly that I can no longer see a path for me to win the primary and defeat Scott Brown."

Both Massie and Setti Warren struggled to raise money and since Elizabeth Warren officially entered the race in mid-September, the momentum in the race has shifted dramatically in her favor. The clear Democratic frontrunner, Elizabeth Warren won rave reviews for her performance at the first Democratic debate earlier this week.

Record-low approval ratings for Congress and the Federal Reserve chairman were fodder for late-night jokes on "The Tonight Show" on Thursday.

"Ben Bernanke told a Congressional committee this week that the economic recovery is close to faltering," Jay Leno said. "On the bright side, most Americans won't be affected because we had no idea there was a recovery."

Don't miss today's Must See Moment at 2:06 where Jimmy Kimmel presents "This Week in Unnecessary Censorship:"

Take our late-night poll after the jump...

Unemployment held steady at 9.1 percent as the economy added 103,000 jobs in September, beating economists' expectations but remaining below the level economists say is needed to dent unemployment.

Economists had expected nonfarm payrolls to show 60,000 new jobs in September and the unemployment rate to remain at 9.1 percent.

Read the complete story on NationalJournal.com.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Berkley nearly doubles up Heller's haul in Nevada, Romney gets set to deliver a major foreign policy speech, Scott Brown is on the defense after controversial comments, and Cain is happy to be a vice presidential nominee ... unless a certain Texas governor wins the nomination. Here's today's rundown:

8) Businessman Herman Cain said on Thursday that he would consider an invitation to run as vice president....err, that is unless Texas Gov. Rick Perry is the nominee.

7) As anti-corporate protests spread across the country, National Journal's Jim O'Sullivan writes that so far, establishment Democrats are treating the protests, which came to Washington on Thursday, the way concerned but tolerant parents might handle a rambunctious teenager who dyes his hair and undergoes unlikely piercings: with vague empathy but an overt lack of engagement.

Many Democrats are walking a fine line as the ultimate direction of the nascent movement is still unknown. As the Wall Street Journal notes, Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., exemplifies the careful balance the party must walk, as he pressed Senate Democrats and the White House to embrace the so-called millionaires' tax, but enjoys strong backing from financial services firms and wouldn't comment on the protests on Wall Street.

The Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction may be bipartisan, but optimism about the super committee's chances for success is not, according to the latest National Journal Congressional Insiders Poll. By a significant majority, the Democratic members of Congress surveyed were gloomy about the committee's prospects for producing a $1.5 trillion deficit reduction plan by its November 23rd deadline. A similar majority of Republican members, however, remained hopeful.

Maybe milquetoast is working for Mitt Romney.

According to a new Pew Research Center survey out Thursday, the former Massachusetts governor is in a dead heat with President Obama in a 2012 general election matchup, with each man taking 48 percent of the vote. But when respondents were asked whether their vote was more about their favored candidate or the other candidate, the poll showed that Romney's uncontroversial style is offending few voters and positioning him to defeat a weakened incumbent president.

In the matchup with Romney, a third of voters -- and more than two thirds of Obama supporters -- say their vote is more a vote for Obama than against Romney. Among Romney supporters, an equal number say their vote is more of a vote against Obama than for Romney.

But only 11 percent of voters -- less than a quarter of Obama supporters -- say their vote is more of a vote against Romney. In a matchup against Texas Gov. Rick Perry -- in which Obama leads, 50 percent to 46 percent -- 15 percent of voters say their vote is more of an anti-Perry vote.

According to past Pew polls, it is not unusual for the campaign to be mainly about the incumbent. That is likely to help Romney or the eventual GOP nominee: Just 43 percent of registered voters approve of the job Obama is doing as president, while a 51-percent majority disapproves.

Romney leads in the Republican primary over Perry, 22 percent to 17 percent, with businessman Herman Cain at 13 percent and Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, at 12 percent. But the poll was conducted over a 12-day period, and the movement over time shows Perry slipping and Cain rising as time elapsed.

With just two words, Sen. Scott Brown, R-Mass., gave Democrats a gift.

When asked during a Democratic debate on Tuesday evening how she paid for college (given that Brown posed shirtless for Cosmopolitan to help pay for college), Democrat Elizabeth Warren replied, "I kept my clothes on."

Brown's response?

"Thank God," he said during an interview on WZLX radio Thursday morning, when asked if he had "officially responded" to Warren's comment.

"I didn't go to Harvard," Brown continued. "I went to the school of hard knocks and I did what I had to do to pay for school."

(WZLX has posted audio of the entire interview here.)

Not a smart move, politically. At a time when Warren is under a media microscope, and Brown has a positive approval rating and favorability numbers, strategically, the junior senator stands to benefit from not engaging too much, too early. Instead, he offered up a comment sure to anger women's groups and rally the Democratic base towards her side.

Filling in for Reid Wilson, we write in this week's On The Trail column:

In the lead-up to Tuesday's special gubernatorial election in West Virginia, buzz about national implications drowned out discussion of the potential in-state political clues the race might yield. While special elections aren't always accurate harbingers--and should be viewed accordingly--a review of Democratic Acting Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin's victory reveals at least a few hints about what is in store for two vulnerable Mountain State incumbents from different parties in 2012: Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin and GOP Rep. David McKinley.

Tomblin's victory is a testament to both his success in keeping his distance from Obama and his ability to turn out the Democratic base. It's also an affirmation of the strength of the Manchin political model. He cobbled together a coalition similar to Manchin's in 2010: Both landed endorsements from the National Rifle Association, the state Chamber of Commerce, and key labor groups en route to defeating a Republican. In other words, it was not a typical Democratic coalition.

Although Manchin is considered vulnerable in 2012, he's the only top Senate target in the country who has yet to attract an opponent. And while West Virginia has been caught up in the special election to fill the governor's seat, Manchin, the former governor, has yet to face any challenge. Tomblin's victory gives would-be Manchin challengers something extra to consider.

There have been six Republican presidential debates so far but the seventh will be unlike any of the previous meetings.

An Oct. 11 Bloomberg/Washington Post at Dartmouth College in New Hampshire will feature the candidates seated side-by-side at a round table where the sole topic of discussion will be the economy. The debate will also be the first this year in which more than one woman is moderating. Syndicated talk show host Charlie Rose, Washington Post political correspondent Karen Tumulty, and Bloomberg TV White House correspondent Julianna Goldman will moderate the discussion.

The debate offers an opportunity for Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who stumbled during the previous two debates, especially when the discussion strayed from the economy to other issues including immigration. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney's previous two debate performances have been well-received and he's appeared at ease when discussing the economy. How the change of pace affects a candidate like former Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pa., -- who has been more outspoken about social issues in previous debates -- will also be interesting to watch.

Bloomberg TV will offer all day coverage on Oct. 11th and feature analysis from former Sen. John E. Sununu , R-N.H., and political analyst and National Journal columnist Matthew Dowd. Anchors Margaret Brennan, Tom Keene, and Bloomberg Executive Editor Al Hunt will offer coverage before and after the debate.

Jon Stewart on Wednesday responded to pundits who have been attacking the Wall Street protesters for being disorganized, unfocused, lacking a clear cause ... sound familiar?

Stewart thinks they're awfully similar to the tea party. "These protesters, how are they not like the tea party?" He joked, "Alright some of them smoke and have pants made out of pot. So, call them the THC party!"

Don't miss today's Must See Moment at 2:36 where you can hear President Obama's new campaign slogan:

Take our late-night poll after the jump...

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. The Nevada presidential caucuses will be on Jan. 14, Inouye likes Hirono in the Hawaii Senate race, Neumann raised $300,000 in September and President Obama names Shakira to an advisory commission. Here's today's rundown:

8) President Obama has appointed pop singer Shakira to serve on his Advisory Commission on Educational Excellence for Hispanics.

7) Rep. Adam Kinzinger, R-Ill., is set to announce his reelection campaign on Saturday. As the Peoria Journal Star points out today, if the map remains the way it was drawn this spring, Kinzinger will end up running in the 16th Congressional District, now represented by Rep. Don Manzullo, R-Ill.

6) Missouri Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder, a likely GOP gubernatorial candidate, says his "listening tour" has been slowed by what he described as a "wicked upper respiratory infection."

5) Virginia Republicans have opted to select their nominee for governor in 2013 through a primary and not a convention. Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling, who plans to run, has been a supporter of primaries, while Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli, who might run, supported a convention.

A growing plurality of voters think Mitt Romney would do a better job on the economy than President Obama, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll released early Thursday, as the nation's sagging economy continues to weigh down Obama and bolster the GOP's effort to defeat him next November.

Romney leads on the economy, 49 percent to 39 percent. His lead on the question is 13 points among independents, and he has a 16-point edge among white voters. In late August, voters preferred Romney by a narrower, 46-42 percent margin; the new poll represents significant movement and shows that the former Massachusetts governor's efforts to burnish his standing on economic issues are paying off. The poll underscores why the White House is trying to brand Romney as a Wall Street villain, particularly as protests in lower Manhattan receive increased media attention.

Even the beleaguered Texas Gov. Rick Perry leads Obama when it comes to who would do a better job on the economy, 45 percent to 42 percent. In late August, Obama held a two-point advantage over Perry on that question.

Overall, just 32 percent of voters approve of the job Obama is doing handling the economy, equal to his record-low standing in late August. A record-high 64 percent of voters disapprove.

Obama has also hit a new low in his overall approval rating: Only 41 percent of voters approve of his job performance, while 55 percent disapprove. The percentage of voters who disapprove of Obama is up from 52 percent in late August.

A rundown of the day's notable Senate/House third quarter fundraising news:

Senate:

-- Rep. Martin Heinrich's, D-N.M., campaign announced Wednesday that he raised $650,000 during the third quarter and finished the period with $1.1 million in the bank.

That's an impressive haul for a statewide campaign in New Mexico. Heinrich raised $485,000 last period. State Auditor Hector Balderas, Heinrich's opponent in the primary, turned in a good showing last quarter, raising $400,000. Balderas has not yet released his third quarter figures.

House:

-- Former Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, D-Ariz., running in a rematch against Rep. Paul Gosar, R-Ariz., raised an impressive $230,000 and ended the period with $350,000 in the bank and no debt.

Oregon State Sen. Suzanne Bonamici has opened up a wide lead in the Democratic primary to replace disgraced former Rep. David Wu, D-Ore., according to a poll conducted for EMILY's List, which has endorsed her campaign.

The first poll in the race, obtained from a Democratic source, shows Bonamici with a 24-point lead over her two closest opponents. Bonamici takes 34 percent of the vote, while state Rep. Brad Witt registers at 10 percent. Oregon state Labor Commissioner Brad Avakian is in single digits with 8 percent.

When the candidates' biographies are listed, Bonamici's lead widens to 29 points, and she has the highest favorability of all the candidates. Bonamici, a former consumer protection attorney for the Federal Trade Commission, is the only candidate currently on TV. Witt is a former secretary-treasurer of the Oregon AFL-CIO. Avakian has served in both houses of the state legislature before being elected Labor Commissioner in 2008, and has racked up several major labor endorsements in the race.

The poll was conducted by Grove Insight for EMILY's List from September 26-28, and surveyed 400 likely Democratic primary voters, with a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percent.

The Democratic primary is on November 8, but ballots for the all-mail special election will go out beginning October 21. The winner of the primary will advance to the special general election on January 31, 2012, likely against businessman Rob Cornilles, who was the 2010 nominee against Wu. Cornilles has raised over a half-million dollars since entering the race, and without a competitive GOP primary, will likely be able to conserve his money for the general election.

Mark down another incumbent-versus-incumbent matchup for 2012: The new Arizona maps proposed by a bipartisan redistricting commission could pit GOP Reps. Dave Schweikert and Ben Quayle against each other in the state's new 6th District.

Drawn by an independent redistricting commission, the map brings good news for Democrats, shoring up several of their seats and setting them up in good position to win the new 9th District. But several Republicans in the delegation are going to have to make some tough choices, beginning with the two freshmen.

A source familiar with Quayle's thinking told Hotline On Call Wednesday that the former vice president's son was definitely running in the Scottsdale-based 6th District that contains the vast majority of Quayle's old district. While Quayle's home is drawn into the new Tempe-based 9th, which would be a toss-up for Republicans, the source noted "you could hit a pitching wedge from [Quayle's] house" into the 6th.

Schweikert wasted no time after the maps were revealed to stake his claim to the 6th District, too. In a statement released Tuesday, he confirmed he planned to run there, even though running in the 4th District or even the open 5th District could have been possibilities.

"Should the proposed Congressional district map passed by the Independent Redistricting Commission become final, I intend to run for reelection in the new Congressional District 6," said Schweikert. "My longtime ties to Scottsdale include being raised there, attending elementary and high school there, along with representing the city in Congress and in the State Legislature. Joyce and I own a house in Scottsdale and I cannot imagine running anywhere else."

The new map also poses a quandary for freshman Republican Paul Gosar, as he faces a rematch against former Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick. The former Democratic congresswoman has been off to a quick start to her campaign, and just announced she raised a solid $230,000 with over $350,000 cash on hand. The 1st District they're both eyeing becomes slightly less favorable to Republicans. But Gosar could instead run in the 4th District - a solidly Republican seat that voted 64 percent for Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., for president in 2008.

ESPN pulled Hank Williams Jr.'s song from the "Monday Night Football" opening this week after he compared President Obama to Adolf Hitler. "You know what that means," Jay Leno said on Tuesday. "We could end up with another Republican presidential candidate, another guy entering the race."

Don't miss today's Must See Moment at 1:50 where you can meet the new Republican front-runners:

Take our late-night poll after the jump...

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Tomblin wins a close one in West Virginia, Hoekstra raises $1 million after setting low expectations, Warren impresses in her first Bay State debate and EMILY's List endorses two House candidates. Here's today's rundown:

9) EMILY's List is moving two women from "On the List" to full endorsement status: East Moline Alderwoman Cheri Bustos, running in IL-17, and former Orlando Police Chief Val Demings, running in FL-08.

8) The conservative American Action Network is launching a $1.6 million national advocacy campaign aimed at shoring up 43 House Republicans and 11 GOP senators. The campaign includes mail, print, and phone calls hitting President Obama over Medicare.

7) Former Rep. Pete Hoekstra, R-Mich., raised $1 million during the third quarter, his Senate campaign announced Wednesday morning. That's a quarter million better than Charter school advocate Clark Durant, who also impressed by bringing in $750,000 in just six weeks. Hoekstra, who has struggled to raise money in the past, did an effective job lowering expectations during the quarter; his team released a memo and a fundraising email pegging the goal at around $400,000-$500,000. The solid million dollar haul will, for now at least, put to rest the chattering about Hoekstra's inability to raise money.

6) My colleague Chris Frates writes over on his Influence Alley blog that several Republican operatives are close to launching an independent expenditure group to help Sen. Orrin Hatch, R-Utah, scare away potential primary challengers.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney had edged in front of President Obama, as more voters say Romney has strong leadership qualities than say the same about the incumbent president, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll released early Wednesday.

Romney leads Obama, 46 percent to 42 percent, just inside the survey's margin of error. Three percent of registered voters say they would vote for someone else, two percent say they would not vote, and seven percent were undecided.

On the question of whether Obama has strong leadership qualities, voters are split right down the middle: 49 percent say that he does, and 49 percent say he does not. But when asked if Romney has those same qualities, 55 percent say he does, while only 24 percent say he does not.

Obama does score better on caring "about the needs and problems of people like you": 54 percent say the president cares, and just 43 percent say he doesn't. Just 43 percent say Romney cares, compared to 35 percent who say he does not.

But Romney outpaces Obama on other key questions. Romney's favorable/unfavorable split is at 39 percent favorable/28 percent unfavorable, a healthy 11-point spread that is also in double-digits among independent voters.

As for Obama, his favorability rating has fallen significantly over the past five weeks: Today, a majority of voters have an unfavorable opinion of him, easily a new low: just 42 percent view him favorably, while 53 percent view him unfavorably. Three-in-five white voters have an unfavorable opinion of the president.

Updated 10:18 p.m.

Democratic acting Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin has won the West Virginia special governor's election. With 96 percent of the vote counted, the Associated Press has called the race for Tomblin, who leads Republican businessman Bill Maloney, 50 percent to 47 percent.

From National Journal:
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Saying Goodbye: Change in the 112th Congress

"We all came together to tell outside groups that no one is going to tell us what to do in West Virginia. We may be open for business, but West Virginia is not for sale!" Tomblin said in his victory speech Tuesday night.

Tomblin took over as acting governor in 2010, following Democrat Joe Manchin's election to the Senate. He will serve out the remaining year of Manchin's term and will be up for reelection in November of 2012.

The Democrat began the race as the favorite and held off a late push from Maloney and national Republicans, who sought to tie the him to President Obama, a very unpopular figure in the state. The race was relatively sleepy over the summer, with neither candidate launching overt attacks against the other. But as the fall approached, the pace picked up, and the self-funding Maloney began to run more ads, raising his name identification and closing the gap against the longtime state legislator.

During the final week of the race, national Republicans bet big on tying Tomblin to Obama, a tactic used in the 2010 Senate race against Manchin. The difference this time, Republicans said, is that the attack was held until the end of the race, so as not to give Tomblin time to respond.

But Tomblin effectively kept the president at arm's length and would not even say whether he'd vote for Obama in 2012 when asked by Hotline On Call over the weekend. He used a model very similar to the campaign strategy Manchin adopted in 2010, racking up endorsements from traditionally GOP-friendly groups like the NRA and state Chamber of Commerce. His closing argument was an ad featuring Manchin himself.

Businessman Herman Cain is tied with former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney for the lead in the increasingly turbulent race for the Republican presidential nomination, according to a new CBS News poll released Tuesday, the third poll in the last 24 hours to show Cain at least with a share of second place.

From National Journal:
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Saying Goodbye: Change in the 112th Congress

Romney and Cain each earn 17 percent of the vote in the new CBS News poll. Texas Gov. Rick Perry is third, with 12 percent of the vote, within the margin of error. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is at eight percent, while his fellow Texan, Rep. Ron Paul, is at 7 percent. Trailing the pack are Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., at four percent; former Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pa., at three percent; and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman (two percent). Twenty percent of voters either want another candidate or were undecided.

The field remains extremely fluid: Among those who chose a candidate, only 19 percent of Republican voters said they have made up their mind, and more than three-quarters said they could still change their vote.

The poll is a significant change from just two weeks ago, when Perry led Romney, 23 percent to 16 percent. Perry has fallen 11 points, while Cain has risen by 12. Romney, on the other hand, has ticked up just a single point in the past two weeks.

Will there be a rematch between former Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory and North Carolina Gov. Bev Perdue? All signs point to yes. But we won't officially know until early next year.

In a new web video out Tuesday, McCrory says he won't officially announce whether he is running until 2012. This isn't a surprise; when he ran in 2008, McCrory didn't announce until January.

"As I travel across the state, many people ask, when am I going to announce for governor? My answer is simple. I'm hoping to make a formal announcement some time after the first of the year," McCrory says in the video.

In explaining his delay, McCrory says "campaigns have become too long and too costly." The Raleigh News & Observer makes this keen observation about the Republican's argument: "McCrory, ironically, hits the same tones as Democratic Gov. Bev Perdue when she commented about the never-ending campaign -- though in a less artful way that drew national attention."

Former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson officially filed paperwork with the Federal Election Commission Tuesday, doing so just days after the end of the third quarter fundraising deadline.

The timing is notable: The Republican will have a full quarter to raise money before he has to release his first set of figures. He's up against a field that includes former Rep. Mark Neumann, who has the ability to self-fund.

Thompson aide Darrin Schmitz said in a statement that an announcement tour is in the works. In a fundraising email, Thompson notes that that on Monday, he signed an anti-tax pledge from Grover Norquist's group, Americans For Tax Reform.

State Sen. Frank Lasee and state Assembly Speaker Jeff Fitzgerald have also reportedly filed with the FEC.

If New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie had entered the race for the Republican presidential nomination, he would have been tied for the lead with former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney -- and he would have run slightly ahead of President Obama among all voters, in Quinnipiac University polling that concluded Monday evening.

Christie and Romney ran even atop the GOP field, tied at 17 percent. Businessman Herman Cain was third, with 12 percent. Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who led the previous Quinnipiac poll, conducted in late August, was at 10 percent. Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin was at seven percent, tied with former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, and Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, was at six percent.

Without Christie in the race, Romney led Cain, 22 percent to 17 percent. Perry was third at 14 percent, while Palin (9 percent), Gingrich (8 percent) and Paul (6 percent) trailed the field.

In a general election matchup against President Obama, Christie led, 45 percent to 42 percent. Among independent voters, Christie led, 45 percent to 37 percent.

Christie's lead came despite the fact that he remains relatively unknown: 59 percent of voters (and 57 percent of Republicans) said they had not heard enough about him to form an opinion.

As voters head to the polls in West Virginia until 7:30 ET tonight, here are four things to watch once the returns begin coming in the Mountain State, where acting Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin faces Republican businessman Bill Maloney:

The Obama effect: If Maloney pulls off an upset, President Obama will get credited with an assist in the victory. The RGA spent significant resources tying Tomblin to Obama, waited until late in the race to make the connection in a television ad. It's no coincidence that the race has tightened in the closing days. Gubernatorial races are usually more focused on local issues, but Republicans poured significant resources into nationalizing the race in the end.

Turnout in the strongholds: Both sides have been vigorously rallying their political bases during the last month. Democrats have made a hard push in areas south of Charleston, where their core supporters reside. The early voting numbers indicate some encouraging signs for Democrats, especially in Logan County, where the 2011 turnout was almost what it was in 2010.

With the Republican Governors Association blanketing the airwaves during the final week in the D.C. market, which extends across to the Eastern Panhandle, turnout in that area, which is more Republican, will be useful to watch. The RGA spent a lot of money advertising in an area where they reached a relatively small number of voters. But the race is close, and a small uptick in turnout in the margins could push Maloney over the top.

Michigan Republican Clark Durant's campaign says he raised $750,000 during the third quarter fundraising period, an impressive figure that puts further pressure on frontrunning former Rep. Pete Hoekstra's efforts.

But Hoekstra's campaign adviser said that the former congressman outraised Durant for the quarter, but declined to release his numbers.

"Pete Hoekstra's number is more than $750k, zero debt, and pinched pennies," tweeted Hoekstra adviser John Yob.

Durant, who founded a charter school program, filed with the Federal Election Commission to raise money for a Senate campaign on August 18. When asked how much of the $750,000 came from Durant's own pockets, campaign manager Dick Wadhams replied that Durant and his wife each gave $5,000, but the rest came from donors.

Rep. Jerry Costello, D-Ill.,won't seek re-election in 2012, he announced on Tuesday, giving Republicans a prime pick up opportunity in a state that otherwise could be difficult for them next year.

Costello is the fifth House Democrat to retire this year, and is the third to be vacating a seat that's likely to be aggressively contested by Republicans. No Republicans have announced their retirement, although seven are leaving the House to run for higher office.

"It has been a privilege and an honor to serve in the U.S. Congress for the past 23 years. However, I said when I was elected in 1988 and many times since that I did not intend to stay in Congress forever as I had other interests that I wanted to pursue," Costello said in a statement.

Costello refused to characterize his departure as a retirement. "You can't go from 100 mph everyday and just stop - I intend to continue to go full speed pursuing other interests and opportunities that may come along," said Costello. "I will miss the people but not the weekly commute from home to Washington, D.C."

Costello had been one of the forces behind redistricting in Illinois, and drew a map that's likely to lead to an expanded Democratic delegation in the state, post-2012.

But Republicans had long believed the map he helped engineer left him vulnerable -- the National Republican Congressional Committee had already run a television ad targeting him. Under new lines signed by Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn, Costello's southwest Illinois district became slightly more Republican - voting 44 percent for GOP nominee John McCain in 2008 and 49 percent for George W. Bush in 2004. But in 2010 the new district gave Sen. Mark Kirk, R-Ill, 54 percent of the vote, and 53 percent for GOP gubernatorial nominee Bill Brady.

2010 lieutenant governor GOP nominee Jason Plummer has been considering a bid and was seen by national Republicans as a top recruit. Former Belleville mayor Rodger Cook announced his campaign last weekend. Nurse Theresa Kormos and 2010 nominee Teri Newman are also running.

Late-night shows had fun on Monday with the revelation that Texas Gov. Rick Perry's family hunting camp was once called "Niggerhead."

Stephen Colbert brushed off the criticism surrounding the name, calling it "much ado about nothing."

"Many president have vacationed at questionably named resorts," Colbert said. "For instance, Chester A. Arthur spent all his summers at Thieving Chinaman Springs."

Don't miss today's Must See Moment at 1:50 where Jay Leno presents the Perry "zinger of the week:"

Take our late-night poll after the jump...

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. It's Election Day in West Virginia (a holiday, if you're a state employee) and it's debate day for Elizabeth Warren and the Democratic Senate field in the Bay State. Meanwhile, a Maryland redistricting panel presents a map that could mean trouble for Bartlett while the Montana GOP gubernatorial field keeps growing. Here's today's rundown:

9) "Obama Girl" says she was courted by now Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's camp during the 2008 presidential campaign.

8) Sen. Maria Cantwell, D-Wash., got her first GOP challenger on Monday as state Sen. Michael Baumgartner, the winner of the on the most expensive state senate campaign in Washington history, joined the field.

7) A Maryland redistricting panel recommended a new map on Monday evening that would pack Democrats into a redrawn 6th District, which is represented by Republican Rep. Roscoe Bartlett and adds Republican voters to Andy Harris' 1st District. Republicans don't like the plan, which could send a seventh House Democrat to D.C.

6) Consumer protection advocate Elizabeth Warren faces her first Democratic Senate debate tonight in Massachusetts, a day after a poll showed her with a big lead over the rest of the field. How heavily will the other candidates go after her? Will City Year co-founder Alan Khazei emerge as a force in the debate? For her own part, Warren admitted she has some butterflies. "Of course I'm nervous. I'm nervous standing here even to do this. It's all about firsts, and I'll learn as I go along," Warren told the Boston Herald.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is back atop the field of Republican presidential contenders as Texas Gov. Rick Perry's support has been cut nearly in half, according to a new ABC News/Washington Post poll, as businessman Herman Cain has surged into a tie for second place.

The poll also shows that New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie would start the campaign with double-digit support, if he chose to enter the race this week.

From National Journal:

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Bachmann Speaks on Border Agent Controversy


Is Christie's Alpha-Male Style What the GOP Wants?


Emails Show Obama Was Warned About Solyndra


Cook: Christie Must be Ready to Scramble

Romney leads among Republican and Republican-leaning voters with 20 percent of the vote, according to the poll, released early Tuesday. Perry and Cain tie for second place, with 15 percent. Christie is fourth, at 10 percent. Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin is next at eight percent, while former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Rep. Ron Paul, R-Tex., are at seven percent each.

When the second choice is substituted for those respondents choosing Palin, Romney leads with 22 percent, trailed by Perry and Cain, with 15 percent each. Christie is at 11 percent with Palin's votes reallocated.

And if neither Christie nor Palin ran, Romney would lead with a quarter of the vote, trailed by Perry and Cain, who each earn the support of 17 percent of voters.

Perry has clearly been damaged over the last month by revelations about his record and uneven debate performances: 44 percent of all Republicans (including non-voters) say that the more they hear about Perry, the less they like him. Just 30 percent say the more they hear, the more they like the Texan.

More Republicans now trust Romney than Perry on issues like Social Security and immigration -- two areas on which Republican candidates have focused their criticism of Perry. And by a 20-point margin, more Republicans think Romney has the better chance to defeat President Obama in November 2012.

The poll was conducted largely before the Washington Post reported in Sunday's editions that his family's hunting camp in West Texas had been referred to in the past by a racial slur.

The Cain Train has picked up significant momentum over the past month. Cain's support has more than doubled from last month, and 47 percent of Republicans say the more they hear about the former Godfather's Pizza CEO, the more they like him, higher than any of the five candidates or potential candidates tested. Only 18 percent say they like him less.

As for Christie, he would be a legitimate contender if he entered the race. A plurality of Republicans (42 percent) want him to jump into the pool, while 34 percent do not; comparatively, 66 percent of Republicans say they do not want Palin to join the race. And 43 percent say the more they hear about the pugnacious New Jersey governor, the more they like him, compared to just 23 percent who like him less the more they hear.

Meanwhile, Obama's approval rating now stands at 42 percent -- a new low -- with 54 percent of Americans disapproving. Among registered voters, Obama trails Romney by two points, 48 percent to 46 percent; ties Christie, with 45 percent each; and leads Perry, 49 percent to 46 percent.

Mitt Romney said on Monday that he will make a major foreign policy speech on Friday in South Carolina, outlining what has thus far been a fuzzy issue for the ex-Massachusetts governor.

Romney first mentioned the speech during an appearance on conservative talk show host Sean Hannity's radio program.

"I think our President has pursued a series of strategies that lead to our decline economically and militarily. And so in that context, I am going to be talking about a very different vision," Romney said.

The presidential candidate has struggled to define his foreign policy on one critical issue: Determining the pace of troop withdrawal from Afghanistan and Iraq. During a debate earlier this year, Romney himself said he both wants to withdraw troops from Afghanistan and Iraq while simultaneously listening to generals on the ground - two objectives at odds with each other.

John Brunner, who for months has been moving toward a Senate run in Missouri, officially jumped into the race Monday. He offered a few policy positions right off the bat, but nothing out of the ordinary for a Republican. Per Missouri politics news website PoliticMo:

Brunner took some of his first public policy positions in his announcement speech Monday. He says he is against earmarks, for a balanced budget amendment, for term limits, and against the Affordable Care Act.

Brunner kept a pretty low profile as he readied his bid, remaining largely out of the media spotlight while making a decision. Democrats have hit him for waiting until just after the end of the third quarter to announce his candidacy, a move they say is a way avoid to disclosing his campaign's expenditures until next year. The businessman has the capacity to self-fund, but it remains to be seen how much of his personal wealth he's willing to put into the race.

His entrance will mean added scrutiny on the third quarter fundraising numbers of former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman and Rep. Todd Akin. Steelman has had a very rough time raising money thus far, and Akin isn't blowing the field away, factors that have some Republicans itching for an alternative.

"Welcome to the race! The water is fine. #mosen #tcot #bringit" the former Treasurer tweeted.

From our story this morning on NationalJournal.com:

Hot-button federal issues aren't typically at the center of governor's races. But in West Virginia, businessman Bill Maloney and national Republicans are tying acting Democratic Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin to President Obama late in the race on the president's signature health care plan. And the issue is likely to surface again in 2012's most competitive governors' races. In some places, it already has.

In North Carolina, former Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory, a likely challenger to the vulnerable Gov. Bev Perdue, recorded a message in March to urge an override to the governor's veto of a state health care bill.

The health care law also has become a hot issue in Washington state, where one of next year's most competitive open-seat races will take place. Last week, Rep. Jay Inslee, D-Wash., the likely Democratic nominee, criticized Attorney General Rob McKenna, the likely Republican nominee, over a new filing in a multi-state lawsuit challenging the health care act's constitutionality.

McKenna, who has cultivated a moderate profile, does not oppose the entire law, only portions that he believes are unconstitutional, including the individual mandate. But Inslee, who supports the health care plan, has criticized him for remaining a part of the suit, which seeks to strike down the whole law.

The South Carolina presidential primary will be held on January 21st, 2012, the state's Republican Party Chairman Chad Connelly announced Monday morning. Connelly chose the date in order to preserve South Carolina's place as the 'first in the South' primary, a distinction threatened by Florida's decision to hold its primary on January 31.

"Last Friday a nine person committee brought chaos to the 2012 nominating calendar. Today, South Carolina restores order," said Connelly in a press conference announcing the date. "Florida's chaos created a compression of over a month," he said later.

Florida's decision to hold a January primary defies Republican National Committee rules, as does South Carolina's decision to leapfrog Florida. Both states risk losing delegates as a consequence.

The political importance of leading the primary calendar outweighed national party concerns, said former South Carolina GOP Chairman Katon Dawson. "South Carolina is going to be first in the South," Dawson said, calling protecting that preeminence a "states rights issue." Dawson defied the national parties in 2008 when he chose to protect South Carolina's place in the calendar and name a January date.