November 2011

President Obama was in Scranton, Pennsylvania today to lobby for an extension of the temporary cut in the payroll tax. One other Democrat who was notably absent: Sen. Bob Casey.

Casey spokesman Larry Smar noted that Casey was not there because of votes on the defense authorization bill in the Senate. But even if his schedule had permitted him to attend the event, an appearance would have been fraught with political risk, considering the president's standing in the state. The way Casey -- who, like Vice President Joe Biden, is from Scranton, a blue collar area in a region that has been hamstrung by high unemployment -- navigates his relationship with the president will affect the way he is viewed, both in his home base and across the state, as he tries for a second term in the upper chamber in 2012.

According to a Quinnipiac University survey taken earlier this month, Obama's approval rating was underwater among Keystone State voters; 52 percent disapproved of the job the president was doing, with just 44 percent approving.

Casey, like many Democratic senators up for reelection, will not able to run too far away from the president. There is enough footage of the two of them to stock plenty of negative ads. His support for the stimulus and the president's signature health care law will be ripe targets for Republicans. And every time he is absent from a Pennsylvania event featuring Obama, the press -- this outlet included -- will take notice.

"There is no doubt that there is some concern in the Casey camp that they can't be too close to the president," said Muhlenberg College political scientist Christopher Borick. "It's going to be hard to extricate Casey from his relationship with the president, and the record is pretty clear that they have been close allies."

Illinois 10th District Democratic candidate John Tree's campaign said in a release on Tuesday that he helped subdue an unruly passenger on a flight between Chicago and Washington D.C., but the state Republican Party on Wednesday sought to cast doubt on its account of events.

In a release sent out on Wednesday entitled "Superhero or Super Embellisher?" the party cites an anonymous congressional chief of staff who witnessed the account and refutes Tree's story.

The release goes on to ask why the plane was not diverted and why the passenger in question was not handcuffed.

The Chicago Sun-Times has the account from the Tree campaign, which says Tree, a colonel in the Air Force Reserves, was asked by a flight attendant "sometime after takeoff to move from his coach seat to first class in order to stand between her and a passenger who had been extremely verbally abusive to flight personnel and other passengers." The campaign said that the passenger jabbed Tree several times in the abdomen as he stood between the passenger's seat and the galley.

Tree spokesman Peter Giangreco told Hotline On Call that the campaign's story was confirmed by United Airlines via email. This is in addition to the confirmation from MSNBC's Chris Matthews, according to the Sun-Times.

Giangreco said the chief of staff, if seated in coach, could not have possibly seen the scuffle take place at the front of first class.

He added that the Tree campaign spoke with the PIO for the Reagan National Airport Police Department, who said the passenger was charged officially with "Public Intoxication" and "Interference With A Flight in Progress and Its Crew."

It's a hot new meme among conservative media outlets: With Rep. Barney Frank's retirement, the GOP may just have a shot at snagging a seat in liberal Massachusetts!

But Republicans shouldn't start salivating at the prospect of winning Frank's seat just yet. While the GOP does have strong candidates waiting in the wings -- including Frank's 2010 challenger -- Democrats have an equally impressive bench. Any Republican still faces long odds in this solidly blue seat.

Marine reserve officer Sean Bielat surged onto the national radar late last cycle, capturing the conservative imagination with his threat to Frank's career. Frank himself was scared enough that he put $200,000 of his own money into this war chest.

While Bielat raised an impressive $2.4 million, much of that was motivated more by a desire to unseat Frank, whose eponymous Wall Street reform bill was and is a rallying point for the Tea Party and the GOP. Capturing the same attention against a little-known Democratic challenger would be much more difficult next year.

In his column today, Josh Kraushaar takes a look at Democrats' success recruiting women to run for the Senate this cycle. In nearly every competitive race involving female candidates, national Democrats and leading women's groups are united behind one candidate. The exception? Connecticut.

In Nevada, Wisconsin and Massachusetts, EMILY's List is backing Rep. Shelley Berkley, Rep. Tammy Baldwin and consumer advocate and Harvard professor Elizabeth Warren. The Democratic Senatorial Committee -- either implicitly or openly -- is also backing each of the women.

But in Connecticut, EMILY's list is backing former Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz. The DSCC has professed its neutrality in the primary, but committee chair Patty Murray has heaped praise on Murphy, signaling which candidate the committee has its sights set on.

"(Rep.) Chris Murphy, in Connecticut -- great candidate, working hard. Really enthusiastic about this, and we are excited about him," Murray said of Murphy during an April briefing with reporters, without mentioning Bysiewicz.

The explanation lies largely in the strength of Murphy's candidacy. Murphy is well-liked on the left, and has demonstrated a strong fundraising ability. Bysiewicz, by comparison, has struggled to raise money. Murphy leads in the limited polling on the Democratic race we've seen so far, but not by an insurmountable margin (he led 36-26 percent in a September Quinnipiac University poll).

Updated at 10:24 a.m.

When former Rep. Pete Hoekstra's, R-Mich., third quarter fundraising numbers came in, I wrote about how the Hoekstra campaign effectively navigated the expectations game leading up to the release of his impressive seven-figure sum. His campaign is at it again, releasing a strategy memo on Tuesday reaffirming a $500,000 fundraising goal for the upcoming quarter, a lowball figure that is likely to be easily surpassed.

"We set a goal of raising $500k per quarter for the 3rd and 4th quarters in 2011 and hit it out of the park in the 3rd quarter by raising over $1 million. We hope to once again surpass our $500,000 4th quarter goal, recognizing that expectations are higher than they were last quarter," John Yob, Fred Davis and Ed Goeas write.

Translation: We're once again going to raise more than $500,000. And not just barely more, either.

The biggest question mark for Hoekstra heading into the Senate race was whether given his fundraising struggles in past campaigns, he would be able to bring in the cash necessary to compete with Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow and the Republican field. Last quarter, he initially set the bar at $500,000. Opponents seized on a subsequent memo indicating a goal of $400,000-$500,000, charging that the campaign was lowering expectations. After dialing it down, Hoekstra brought in an impressive $1 million+.

"What a joke. All the reports from Michigan is that Tea Party activists hate this guy and this is the best spin he can come up with?" said Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spokesman Shripal Shah.

Cornerstone Schools co-founder Clark Durant, Hoekstra's main Republican opponent, hauled in a much more than satisfactory $750,000 in the third quarter. His fourth quarter number will reveal whether or not that was a flash in pan.

Stephen Colbert on Tuesday looked at the upside of another woman accusing Herman Cain of infidelity.

"This new woman says the affair was consensual. I'd say things are looking up," Colbert joked. Compared to other accusers who said he harassed them, "these new allegations sound like Leave It To ... let's not say beaver."

Don't miss today's Must See Moment at 2:57 where Jon Stewart uncovers the next Cain bombshell ... under The Daily Show correspondent Samantha Bee's skirt:

Take our late-night poll after the jump...

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Mark Block says Cain isn't dropping out. Meanwhile, the Romney-Gingrich battle starts to heat up, the DCCC telegraphs 30 of their top GOP targets and don't hold your breath waiting for a Mitch Daniels presidential endorsement. Here's today's rundown:

9) Another sign George Allen is an inevitable GOP Senate nominee: His Tea Party-aligned opponent's campaign manager is stepping aside.

8) As President Obama makes his way to the blue-collar Scranton, Pennsylvania today, it's not looking like Sen. Bob Casey, D-Pa., will join him. With Obama's numbers mediocre in the state, there is justification for the Democratic senator to avoid the president. For both men, the Scranton area is hugely important for 2012. Both Obama's VP (Biden) and Casey hail from the area. But the city has among the worst unemployment in the state, and it's filled with the blue-collar Dems who weren't very enthusiastic about Obama when he first ran for president. How Casey navigates his relationship with the president will speak volumes about his re-election prospects.

7) New York Times Magazine gives Mitt Romney the cover treatment this weekend, where Romney campaign Stuart Stevens compares Romney to Philadelphia Eagles QB Michael Vick. From reporter Robert Draper: "Romney's staff has endeavored to focus the campaign on his strengths, which are decidedly the opposite of Vick's. So instead of letting their quarterback roam and improvise, they're keeping him tightly contained in the business-centric pocket, hoping to God that he does not stray from it."

After her decision to oust the chair of Arizona's Independent Redistricting Commission was overturned by the state Supreme Court earlier this month, Gov. Jan Brewer opted on Tuesday not to pursue one option that would have put the commission's fate before voters next year.

Brewer announced that she would not call the state legislature into a special session to approve an initiative for the Feb. 28 ballot that would either repeal the commission entirely, returning the task of drawing the political lines to the legislature, or alter the commission to add more registered independents and diminish Mathis' power.

In order to appear on the ballot on Feb. 28 - the date of the state's Republican primary - the initiative would have to be ratified by Wednesday.

"I've seen no evidence to date that indicates voters are ready or willing to throw out the Commission structure," Brewer said in a statement.

Last week, the state Supreme Court ruled that Brewer was not justified in removing that commission's independent chairwoman, Colleen Mathis, reinstating her and allowing the commission to work toward ratifying new maps for the state's congressional and state legislative districts.

Brewer said she still supports Mathis' ouster and did not rule out again pursuing that option to halt the commission's work.

"I stand by that action, and believe the Arizona Supreme Court grossly erred in returning the Chairwoman to the Commission," said Brewer. "There may be another time to deal with the Court, but it's important at a time like this that we keep our eyes on the bigger picture."

Updated, 5:10 p.m.

A new Pew Research Center analysis of recent surveys shows a worrisome trend for tea party Republicans: In districts represented by members of the House Tea Party Caucus, adults are roughly split over whether they agree or disagree with the movement.

Twenty-five percent of adults living in districts represented by members of the House Tea Party Caucus (there are sixty such districts) said in a poll earlier this month they agreed with the tea party while almost as many respondents -- 23 percent -- said they disagree. This is very conservative turf: only four of the 60 members represent districts that President Obama carried in 2008.

It's a sharp turnaround from March of 2010, when 31 percent of adults in tea party districts agreed while just 10 percent disagreed with the tea party.

And it's not just the tea party's image that has taken a hit in these districts: Overall, GOP favorability was underwater in these districts in an October survey, with 48 percent holding an unfavorable view and just 41 percent holding a favorable view of the Republican Party. It's worse for the GOP among the general public, where the fav/unfav split is 36/55 percent.

What all this suggests is the tea party malaise is being felt not only in moderate areas, but even in places where the Republican standard-bearers that have emerged have been tea party candidates. And that's taken a toll on the GOP's image as a whole in those districts.

One caveat: the sample sizes for the tea party districts are small. For the November survey, there were 282 adult respondents in tea party districts, for a margin of error of +/- 7 percent. That poll was conducted from Nov. 9-14.

The earlier poll was conducted Sept. 22-Oct. 4 and surveyed 345 adults in those districts, for a margin of error +/- 6.5 percent.

Steven Shepard contributed

Missouri Republican Ed Martin told KMOX radio in St. Louis on Tuesday that he is considering abandoning his House bid to run for governor.

"I believe Jay Nixon is one of the worst governors of Missouri," Martin said, according to PoliticMO. "Serious people who care should consider [a run] when they're asked."

A clue that Martin might be considering yet another switch -- he was a Senate candidate earlier this year before switching to the 2nd District House race -- appeared on Monday. On Sunday night, an email was circulated from an group calling itself "Missourians for a Conservative Governor," which took aim at Dave Spence, the GOP businessman who is currently the only Republican running against Democratic Gov. Jay Nixon. PolitcMO made a great catch on Monday, finding that a top aide to Martin was the author in the Word file's properties.

It's not difficult to see why Martin would consider switching races: the GOP frontrunner in the race, former Ambassador Ann Wagner raised more money in the third quarter than any other House challenger and she boasts endorsements from well-known Republican figures including New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Mike Huckabee, the former governor of Arkansas.

It's time to polish off those Thanksgiving leftovers and get ready for the final month of 2011. But December will be far from a throwaway month when it comes to Senate races. In fact, the end of 2011 could prove to be quite consequential. Here are the five biggest questions we're asking before we flip the calendar to 2012:

1) Will Sen. Ben Nelson retire?

If he runs for reelection, holding his seat will be one of Democrats' most difficult tasks in 2012. If he doesn't, they can write off their chances in Nebraska, given the lack of any party bench to speak of in the Cornhusker State.

Nelson, who in a recent interview with the Lincoln Journal Star sounded very uncertain about his future, will decide sometime during the Christmas season. An internal poll conducted on the Democrat's behalf shows he's improved his standing, but is still in a statistical tie with flawed Republican Jon Bruning. The bump hasn't come out of nowhere: Democrats have poured over a million dollars into early ad buys promoting Nelson.

If Nelson thinks he faces long odds at winning, don't count on him running again. But if the Democratic polling is on target, he may well decide to fight it out for a third term.

2) Will the wounded GOP establishment prevail in primaries?

Rep. Connie Mack, R-Fla., has polled very well so far, giving Republicans new life in what once looked like a tough race against Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson. But while the Mack name is well-known in the Sunshine State, his skills running a statewide campaign aren't. On Monday, he finally officially launched his campaign and is surrounded by more question marks (immigration, fundraising) than answers.

Another candidate who has not (officially, at least) "launched" is former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson. He is set to do so on Thursday, but will his launch signal a more active campaign presence? One man who hasn't forgotten about Thompson is Sen. Jim DeMint, R-S.C., whose not-so-coincidentally timed endorsement of former Rep. Mark Neumann landed this week.

Jon Stewart reflected on President Obama's Thanksgiving address on The Daily Show on Monday. In the YouTube video, the president didn't mention God, which became fodder for criticism from pundits on the right.

"Seriously? Failing to mention God in your Thanksgiving address? Not a huge Thanksgiving faux pas," Stewart said. "I could understand if instead of pardoning two male turkeys he had married them."

And with Thanksgiving, the holiday season has officially begun. "In fact, today I saw Herman Cain wearing his mistletoe belt buckle, " Jay Leno joked.

Don't miss today's Must See Moment at 3:56 where Jimmy Kimmel presents a mash-up of Wolf Blitzer's Monday interview with Cain and The Grinch Who Stole Christmas:

Take our late-night poll after the jump...

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. The effort to recall Gov. Scott Walker in Wisconsin is gaining momentum, Herman Cain's campaign is losing it, Republicans in Florida are smiling about the first proposed redistricting map and Rep. Joe Walsh might not be running against Republican Randy Hultgren after all. Here's today's rundown:

7) A new allegation is being made about Herman Cain. This time, an Atlanta woman says she had a 13-year affair with the GOP presidential candidate, who denies the claim.

6) Rep. Connie Mack, R-Fla., (finally) announced his Senate campaign on Sean Hannity's Fox News show.

5) Could Rep. Joe Walsh, R-Ill., be changing his mind about what district he's running in next year? Roll Call reports that the freshman met with an aspiring GOP candidate in the 8th District and told her he planned to run there instead of running in the 14th District, where he's in a nasty intraparty battle with fellow GOP Rep. Randy Hultgren. That potential candidate confirmed the meeting to a local paper.

Walsh lives in the 14th, and it's a much more GOP friendly-district than his old 8th, which voted 62 percent for Obama under the new lines. The possible switch suggests Walsh hasn't found poll numbers to his liking against Hultgren. But if he does run in the 8th, he'd have a very tough race, against either Iraq War veteran Tammy Duckworth or former state Deputy Treasurer Raja Krishnamoorthi. The state's filing deadlines were set to begin Monday, but as Republicans await the outcome of their redistricting challenge, the court moved the filing period to Dec. 23-27.

With two of Rep. John Tierney's, D-Mass., brothers-in-law facing federal charges pertaining to gambling and racketeering and closing arguments in a federal case expected this week, the Boston Globe takes a lengthy look in today's paper at the history of Daniel and Robert Eremian, the brothers of Tierney's wife, Patrice Tierney. It's not what the congressman wants to see as he faces reelection in the district that presents one of the best GOP congressional pickup opportunities in the Bay State. From the Globe story:

By the time they were in their 30s, Robert and Daniel Eremian had both pleaded guilty to federal drug charges; Robert was sentenced to four years in prison in the Maine case, while Daniel received three years of probation.

Patrice Tierney has in the past pleaded guilty to helping one of her brothers file false tax returns so the story isn't wholly new. But following an approved redistricting map that makes the 6th District more Republican, the GOP is as optimistic in Tierney's District as they are anywhere else in Massachusetts about a pickup opportunity. If the story lingers, it's bad news for the incumbent.

The GOP-aligned American Action Network, an influential 501(c)(4) organization, is taking to the airwaves on Fox News on behalf of Sen. Orrin Hatch, R-Utah.

"Across Europe, huge debt and overspending are crashing down in dramatic fashion," the narrator of the 30-second spot says. "Could it really happen in America? We're closer than you think. That's why Orrin Hatch is leading the fight to STOP reckless spending and to balance our budget. Senator Hatch has fought against the President's bloated stimulus."

The ad is running for four weeks on Fox News, which is a notable audience because the biggest threat against Hatch would come in the form of a potential primary challenger on his right. The group did not immediately disclose the size of the buy. It's not first time the group has advocated on Hatch's behalf: they've dropped mail for him this cycle as part of a larger national campaign.

It's all in the timing. And so far this cycle, Sen. Jim DeMint's Senate endorsements have been timed to rain especially hard on the parades of several Republican contenders viewed as part of the party establishment.

DeMint's Senate Conservatives Fund officially threw its support behind former Rep. Mark Neumann's, R-Wis., Senate campaign on Monday, just days before former Gov. Tommy Thompson's anticipated Dec. 1 campaign kickoff.

"Mark Neumann is a proven, conservative leader and he's running against Tommy Thompson, a Republican who helped President Obama pass his healthcare takeover," DeMint wrote in an email to supporters on Monday. "We're endorsing Mark Neumann because he has the strongest conservative record in the field, he has the support of the grassroots, and he's in the best position to win this race for freedom-loving Americans."

DeMint has endorsed four Senate challengers so far this cycle, including Neumann. In Texas, DeMint announced his endorsement of former state Solicitor General Ted Cruz the same day that Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst announced his campaign.

West Virginia Republican Bill Maloney, who narrowly lost to Democratic Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin earlier this year in a special election, has filed paperwork with the state to form an exploratory committee for another run in 2012, he announced on Monday.

"I filed paperwork with the Secretary of State's office today, forming an exploratory committee for the 2012 gubernatorial election," Maloney said in a statement. "During the last few weeks, I have spoken to many West Virginians who remain concerned about our state's future. They have encouraged me to run for governor in 2012. I am grateful for their continued support. In the coming weeks, I will make an announcement regarding my future plans."

Maloney, a political newcomer who self-funded much of his special election campaign, upset former Secretary of State Betty Ireland in the GOP primary before going on to run a very competitive general election race against Tomblin. He lost to Tomblin by just three points and made a late surge in what was by far 2011's most competitive governor's race. He received a hand from national Republicans, who blanketed the airwaves in the state during the final week with an ad tying Tomblin to President Obama.

Maloney's decision to form an exploratory committee will allow him to raise money. His ability to self-fund and his exposure during this year's race would make him a formidable candidate in 2012, should he choose to run.

Tomblin took over as acting governor when Democrat Joe Manchin stepped down following his election to the Senate in 2010.

Updated, 1:32 p.m.

Rep. Barney Frank, one of the most influential liberal lawmakers of his generation, announced that he is not seeking a 17th term in Congress next year. He said the changed lines of his suburban Boston district and an unexpectedly heated re-election campaign last year played roles in his decision.

"I'd been ambivalent about running, not because I don't think that the job is important but there are other things I would like to do in my life before my career is over," Frank said at a press conference in his hometown of Newton, Massachusetts Monday afternoon. "I was planning to run again and then the congressional redistricting came. And this decision was precipitated by congressional redistricting, not entirely caused by it."

The Massachusetts Democrat, first elected in 1980, serves as the ranking Democrat on the House Financial Services Committee. During a four-year stint as chairman of the panel, he helped shepherd the Dodd-Frank overhaul of the nation's financial regulations. The Almanac of American Politics described Frank as a "savvy legislator known for his keen intellect and sharp tongue."

Frank had indicated earlier this year he would seek reelection to his House seat, amid speculation that he would run for the Senate against Republican Scott Brown. He won a closer-than-expected re-election bid in 2010, taking 53 percent of the vote against Republican Sean Bielat, his lowest total since first winning his Newton- and Tauton-based district in 1980.

In redistricting, the new lines of the Massachusetts map kept his seat solidly Democratic but Frank lost several Democratic strongholds near his home in the process -- including the blue-collar town of New Bedford, where he spent time working on constituent services.

"The new district came out. ... There are 325 -- or 326,000 new people, many of whom I haven't represented, some of whom I haven't represented for 20 years, which is an eternity in our politics today ... in terms of the issues," Frank said. ""I've spent 20 years working on the fishing industry. None of the fishing areas will be in the new district I would be running in. I can't walk away from the fishing industry."

The new district would have given Obama 61 percent of the vote; under the old lines, Obama took 63 percent.

A long line of potential Democratic successors will be looking at running, including Newton mayor Setti Warren, who dropped out of the Senate race earlier this year, state Rep. James Vallee, and state Sens. Marc Pacheco, Mike Rodrigues and James Timilty. Among Republicans, Bielat hasn't ruled out running again. And state Rep. Jay Barrows and former Hopkinton selectman Brian Herr would also be possible GOP contenders.

Frank is the ninth House Democrat to retire outright, without seeking higher office. A total of 16 House Democrats aren't running for re-election next year.

Jim O'Sullivan contributed

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Team Romney hits Iowa mailboxes, reaching out to social conservatives; Gingrich lands the backing of the biggest paper in New Hampshire and Texas's attorney general will fight a congressional map that benefits to Democrats. Here's today's rundown:

8) Sen. Jon Tester's, D-Mont., campaign points out that a Chamber Of Commerce ad running against the Democrat misspells his first name. Oops.

7) We don't normally write about campaign web videos, but a new one from Pennsylvania Republican Senate candidate Peter Steve Welch is an oddball effort that is not your run of the mill web spot. It plays as a mock-investigative report about whether President Obama and Democratic Sen. Bob Casey were separated at birth. At the 4:30 mark, it takes an odd turn, with a portion about meal choices and pancakes.

6) There will be more wrangling over a Texas congressional map that Republicans hate: Texas GOP Attorney General Greg Abbott will file for an emergency stay with the Supreme Court to stop the map.

5) Maricopa County, Ariz., Sheriff Joe Arpaio, an outspoken immigration hardliner, is set to endorse Texas Gov. Rick Perry. This puts Arpaio opposite another well-known Arizona sheriff: Paul Babeu, who is backing Mitt Romney. It's not the first time the two have found themselves behind different GOP candidates: Babeu backed Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., in 2010 while Arpaio backed J.D. Hayworth.

Updated at 4:22 p.m. on 11/26

Rep. Charlie Gonzalez, D-Texas, the chairman of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, announced on Friday that he will not seek reelection in 2012.

"I've been in Congress for 14 years and I want to do something else -- what that is I really don't know, but financially I would like to be productive and have the resources to make a better life," Gonzalez told the San Antonio Express-News.

Gonzalez has represented the Lone Star State's 20th District since 1999. The Gonzalez family has been an institution in the 20th District: Gonzalez's father represented the San Antonio-based district for nearly four decades before his son assumed office.

"As Chair of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, he has worked nonstop to deliver much needed relief to deserving immigrant families and to protect the civil rights of Latinos and all Americans. Michelle and I wish him and his family the very best and join the people of Texas in thanking him for his many years of service," President Obama said in a statement.

The paper also reported that the spokesman for Democratic state Rep. Joaquin Castro said that he is likely to run for Gonzalez's seat. He is the twin brother of the mayor of San Antonio. Castro raised an impressive $500,000 in the third quarter.

What we at The Hotline learned this week:

-- For months, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has carefully executed his stealth strategy in Iowa: Skip the major cattle calls -- where he's likely to be contrasted negatively against his more conservative opponents -- in favor of solo events where he can address voters directly and control his message.

But now, less than six weeks out from the Iowa caucuses, there are signs that Romney's plan is backfiring. His absence from traditional candidate events in the state has earned him rebukes not only from Christian conservative leaders like Bob Vander Plaats and Steve Scheffler, but also from Gov. Terry Branstad, who last week openly mocked Romney's "expectations" strategy. Whether Romney heeds their advice and goes for the kill -- or sticks to his play-it-safe strategy -- could determine his fate in Iowa and beyond.

-- And it's starting to look like Romney will go for the kill. He has been filming footage for TV ads in the state, volunteers are pouring in to his newly-active state headquarters, and a well-oiled GOTV operation is ready to go. If Romney manages to surpass expectations and pull off a victory where social conservatives dominate, the nomination is his for the taking.

-- Romney has limited his national television interviews - it has been over 650 days since he appeared on a Sunday show. Romney still hasn't done FNC's "Special Report" 2012 panel and he is the only candidate who hasn't done "Fox News Sunday." However, he has stepped it up a little this week: on Monday, Romney appeared on Fox's "Hannity," and recently did a Google+ hangout with FNC's Bret Baier.

-- If conservative Republicans were looking for a Romney alternative in former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, Tuesday's debate showed why the former Speaker isn't exactly their ideal candidate either. His differences on immigration will be front and center now that he's sitting on top of the field, and don't expect his argument -- that it's "compassionate conservatism" to not split up families -- to fly. And Gingrich has perhaps the longest record of anyone on the stage to pick apart -- in contrast with Cain, who was a virtual unknown until he surged to the top tier.

And where is Cain now? He was virtually a non-entity during the debate, and perhaps wisely so, given his recent gaffes on foreign policy. Gingrich may be on top for now, but no one except for Romney has proved they have staying power -- a point even Gingrich himself admitted to CNN after the debate. The final two standing will almost certainly be Romney and someone else -- but whom that other spot belongs to seems to keep changing every week.

Count Texas Democrats among the very thankful this holiday after a U.S. District Court in San Antonio offered a new take on the state's House district lines, a draft that's likely to hand the minority party many more seats.

The court released a draft of interim Congressional districts on Wednesday, giving Democrats significant pick up opportunities in at least three districts while also sparing one endangered Democratic incumbent.

The new map comes after a district court in Washington earlier this month blocked maps drawn by the Republican-controlled state legislature, citing improper standards in determining minority voting strength. After the Lone Star State picked up four new seats in reapportionment, Republicans drew three of those new seats to their benefit, and also carved up the Austin-based district of veteran Democratic Rep. Lloyd Doggett, pushing him into a tough primary fight in a new San Antonio seat.

But under the new lines proposed Wednesday by the three-judge panel, three of the four new seats are winnable for Democrats, while the number of minority-opportunity seats statewide increases to 13. Meanwhile, Doggett's 25th District is restored, clearing the way for his return to his original seat. Former Railroad Commissioner Michael Williams, who dropped out of the Senate primary, had planned to run there, but faces near-impossible odds in a district President Obama won in 2008 by 68 percent.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Democrats are getting excited about their prospects in North Dakota, Romney should be getting excited about some new poll numbers against Pres. Obama, and we're all excited for the Thanksgiving holiday. Hotline Sort will be taking a holiday break for the rest of the week, but we'll be back next Monday.

8. More bad news for former Democratic New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine: His now-bankrupt securities firm is missing over $1.2 billion from customer accounts, the Wall Street Journal reports. Yup, that's billion with a b.

7. Another big battle with labor is brewing - this time, in Indiana. State Republican leaders are working to pass legislation that would make Indiana a "right-to-work state," the New York Times reports.

Indiana Democratic legislators, like their Wisconsin counterparts, walked out to protest union-restricting laws earlier in the year. But since then, new laws have been implemented to penalize absentee legislators.

6. Two new state Congressional maps are officially in place: Alabama and Massachusetts. With Rep. John Olver, D-Mass., retiring, all of the remaining nine Democratic incumbents look to be in good shape - with Reps. John Tierney, D-Mass, and Bill Keating, D-Mass., as the only members potentially at risk.

In Alabama, the Department of Justice pre-cleared a Republican-backed map that protects the GOP's 6-1 advantage. The only member even remotely at risk is Rep. Martha Roby, R-Ala., but she's running in a newly-drawn district where Obama would have won just 35 percent of the vote.

5. Democrats look like they have their nominee in the newly-drawn district in Nevada - state Senate Majority Leader Steven Horsford. Horsford is the clear-favorite to win the primary, after Democratic state Sen. John Lee announced he was dropping out of the race Monday night.

Republicans are also contesting the newly-drawn Las Vegas-area district, which would have given President Obama 56 percent of the vote in 2008. Their likely nominee is state senator Barbara Cegavske.

North Carolina Republican Ilario Pantano's eventual goal is to knock off Rep. Mike McIntyre, D-N.C., but first he's working to cut down his leading primary challenger, state Sen. David Rouzer, with a blistering TV ad that runs through the holiday weekend.

The 2010 GOP nominee's 60-second TV spot stars Tuesday on Wilmington broadcast and cable, slamming Rouzer for lobbying work on behalf of immigration reform. He's also launching an accompanying website, www.RouzerForAmnesty.com, to continue the attacks.

Pantano pulls no punches in the minute-long spot, even comparing the state senator to President Obama, the late Sen. Ted Kennedy, D-Mass., and Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif.

"Raleigh lobbyist and politician David Rouzer collected a fat paycheck to push a liberal plan to provide amnesty for illegal aliens," the ad says. "Not just amnesty for one point five million illegal agriculture workers, but amnesty to one point eight million family members of illegals.

A Marine veteran who lost in 2010 by 8 points to McIntyre, Pantano is vying again for the GOP nomination, but faces stiff competition from Rouzer, who many DC and Tar Heel Republicans see as the stronger candidate against the veteran congressman.

Pantano has been outraised by Rouzer and only pulled in a meager $65,000 to Rouzer's over $200,000 in the last fundraising quarter. Still, both were included on the National Republican Congressional Committee's "Young Guns" program.

But Pantano has signaled he isn't going away quietly, and this initial ad blitz is further evidence of that. Last month, Pantano released his own internal poll showing him leading Rouzer by over 20 points, and he also won this past weekend's North Carolina GOP straw poll by a two-to-one margin.

Watch the full ad after the jump.

There are already two candidates in the Democratic primary for retiring Sen. Jon Kyl's, R-Ariz., seat -- former Arizona Democratic Party chair Don Bivens and former U.S. Surgeon General Richard Carmona -- and a third may soon jump in as well. Rev. Warren Stewart Sr., a civil rights leader in the state, has formed an exploratory committee for a potential Senate run. The Arizona Republic:

Stewart is perhaps best known in the political sphere for spearheading, in the late 1980s and early 1990s, the drive to enact a state holiday honoring the late Rev. Martin Luther King Jr. The issue was politically charged in the days after then-Gov. Evan Mecham's controversial decision to rescind Arizona's original King holiday. More recently, Stewart was active in protests against Senate Bill 1070, Arizona's controversial immigration-enforcement law.

He's building a reputation around entitlement reform, describes the work he specializes in as "dorky stuff," and talks about the economy more like a professor than a pol.

If you guessed Paul Ryan, the House Budget Committee chairman from Wisconsin whose budget proposal revamping Medicare has been one of the most controversial policy measures of 2011, you'd be mistaken. But perhaps 37-year-old Republican Utah state Sen. Dan Liljenquist wouldn't mind the mistake, since after all, he embraces much of what the Wisconsin Republican espouses.

The Utah Republican says he would have "absolutely" voted for Ryan's budget in the Senate earlier this year. "Is it perfect? No. But it's something," he said in an interview with Hotline On Call Friday afternoon. "The principles are, you've got to put this on the right course. You've got to find a way to do it."

Liljenquist is strongly considering running against Republican Sen. Orrin Hatch, a top target of conservatives this cycle but one who hasn't attracted a GOP opponent. For months, Republican Rep. Jason Chaffetz appeared poised to run as the anti-Hatch alternative. But he shocked almost all observers when he announced in August that he plans to stay in the House.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Hotline's first installment of monthly Senate race rankings is up, Romney rakes in big New Hampshire endorsements and leads Obama by five in Michigan, the super committee is on the brink of failure, and Kildee denounces abuse allegations. Here's today's rundown:

9) Rep. Michele Bachmann's, R-Minn, book, "Core of Conviction," comes out Monday.

8) The Washington Times reported Sunday that several of Rep. Dale Kildee's, D-Mich. estranged family members are accusing him of sexually abusing his cousin about 50 years ago. Kildee denounced the allegations, calling them "false and shameful," and suggesting the family was trying to blackmail him.

"This is a concerted effort by distant relatives, two of whom have a long history of mental illness and multiple run-ins with the law, along with political adversaries to destroy my reputation by lying about something that never took place more than 50 years ago," said Kildee in his statement. "Republicans tried to peddle these scurrilous allegations during my last congressional race and authorities and reputable news outlets rejected these false allegations."

Kildee is set to retire at the end of his current term. His nephew, Dan, is running for his seat.

7) Sen. Debbie Stabenow, D-Mich., has a slight lead over former Republican Rep. Pete Hoekstra, according to a new poll released Saturday that shows a tightening race. The Michigan Senate seat is pivotal to Democrats' chances of maintaining control of the Senate.

Stabenow leads Hoekstra in the poll, conducted by Lansing-based EPIC-MRA for the Detroit Free Press and WXYZ-TV in Detroit, 48 percent to 42 percent. In a survey last month by the same pollster, Stabenow had a slightly larger advantage, 47 percent to 38 percent.

In separate results released Sunday, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney led President Obama in the state, 46 percent to 41 percent. But Obama leads former House Speaker Newt Gingrich by 5 points and businessman Herman Cain by 14 points.

Sen. Debbie Stabenow, D-Mich., has a slight lead over former Republican Rep. Pete Hoekstra, according to a new poll released Saturday that shows a tightening race for a seat pivotal to Democrats' chances of maintaining control of the Senate.

Stabenow leads Hoekstra in the poll, conducted by Lansing-based EPIC-MRA for the Detroit Free Press and WXYZ-TV in Detroit, 48 percent to 42 percent. In a survey last month by the same pollster, Stabenow had a slightly larger advantage, 47 percent to 38 percent.

Stabenow's ratings are mixed. A slight plurality of likely voters, 47 percent, have a favorable opinion of her, while 39 percent have an unfavorable opinion. But only 41 percent would use the words "excellent" or "good" to describe her job performance, with 52 percent rating her "just fair" or "poor."

Stabenow does crack the critical 50-percent mark against former state Board of Education president Clark Durant, leading 51 percent to 31 percent. Durant remains unknown in the state: 61 percent of likely voters did not recognize his name.

While Stabenow currently has a slight edge in the Senate race, the GOP could be buoyed in the presidential race if Mitt Romney, whose father George served as governor of the state, were to become the Republican nominee. In separate results released Sunday, Romney led President Obama, 46 percent to 41 percent. But Obama leads former House Speaker Newt Gingrich by 5 points and businessman Herman Cain by 14 points.

The poll was conducted Nov. 13-16, surveying 600 likely voters. The margin of error is +/- 4.0 percent.

What we at The Hotline learned this week:

-- Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is the GOP presidential flavor of the month, but like many of the other conservative insurgents, he is poised to fall once details are re-reported about his recent support for cap-and-trade, lucrative lobbying activities for Freddie Mac and assorted personal baggage. The one Republican candidate languishing in last place but looking good by comparison is former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum. Once, we thought that getting routed in a Senate re-election campaign was a major political vulnerability. But compared to the weakness of the other candidates (Bachmann/Cain/Perry/Gingrich), Santorum looks a lot better. We're not betting on it, but a Santorum surge in Iowa isn't out of the question in December.

-- Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, and his campaign have complained about his lack of media coverage, and this week highlighted the fact that he only got to speak for 89 seconds at the debate last weekend. He may have a point about not getting much media attention, except when it comes to Sunday shows: including this coming Sunday, Paul has been on at least one Sunday show for four out of the last five weeks, more than any other presidential candidate.

-- Christmas might come early for Sen. Richard Lugar, R-Ind. Bob Thomas, a wealthy auto dealer who mounted an unsuccessful run for Congress last year, is considering jumping into the Indiana Senate race . A Thomas entry would give dissatisfied conservative an alternate choice to state Treasurer Richard Mourdock, whose campaign has gotten off to an underwhelming start. If the anti-Lugar vote is divided in the GOP primary, the potentially vulnerable incumbent could skate to a seventh term.

The National Republican Congressional Committee edged out its Democratic counterpart during the month of October, bringing in $4.56 million in contributions to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's $4.18 million.

The NRCC's haul was a rebound from the previous month, when the DCCC outraised the GOP by nearly $3 million. The House Democrats' campaign committee also won the third fundraising quarter.

Last month marked the GOP House campaign arm's best off-year October since the Federal Election Commission began tracking records electronically in 1995. The NRCC also has more cash on hand, ending the month with $13.8 million to the DCCC's $9.81 million.

But despite Democrats' minority status in the House, the DCCC has still raised more total this year, bringing in $52.08 million to the NRCC's $48.73 million.

Both campaign committees have continued to pay down debt from the 2010 election cycle. The NRCC now carries only $500,000 in debt, compared to $1.33 million in debt for the DCCC. But that's down significantly from the $19.6 million in debt House Democrats were carrying at the beginning of this election cycle.

With the deadline fast approaching, members of the super committee will dominate the Sunday shows this weekend. Fox News Sunday and State of the Union will each host a committee co-chair -- Rep. Jeb Hensarling, R-Texas, and Sen. Patty Murray, D-Wash., respectively. Fox News Sunday will also feature Moody's Mark Zandi, who will likely discuss how the country's credit rating could be affected if the committee fails to reach a deal. Other committee members making the rounds on Sunday include: Sens. Jon Kyl, R-Ariz., and John Kerry, D-Mass., who will appear on Meet the Press, Sen. Pat Toomey, R-Pa., who will be on Face the Nation, Rep. Xavier Becerra, D-Calif., who will be on Fox News Sunday and Rep. Jim Clyburn, R-S.C., who will be featured on Bloomberg TV's Political Capital.

Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, will be featured on Face the Nation on Sunday. Paul has been featured on at least one Sunday show for four out of the last five weeks, including this coming Sunday. Businessman Herman Cain will appear on UNIVISION's Al Punto this weekend, becoming only the second presidential candidate to appear on the Spanish language show, after former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman.

"60 Minutes" will feature a segment on Americans for Tax Reform's Grover Norquist, talking about his tax pledge and its effect on congressional debt reduction efforts.

Check out the full listings after the jump.

Updated at 4:06 p.m.

Missouri Republican Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder announced on Friday afternoon that he will not run for governor, citing conversations with Republican Dave Spence, whom he is endorsing in the race.

"I believe after numerous conversations with Dave Spence that he is the Republican Party's best chance of defeating Jay Nixon, Kinder said in a statement. "Dave is a self-made man and proven manager who understands how to create jobs and improve the state's economy. He is smart, serious and has a vision he's shared with me to renew Missouri's greatness. I am proud to call him a friend and will do everything in my power to see that he's elected governor next year," continued Kinder.

Spence, a political newcomer with the ability to self-fund, confirmed just this week that he is running.

Kinder, who will run for reelection as lieutenant governor, had considered challenging Nixon throughout 2011, and even as recently as this fall, he was holding high profile fundraisers featuring Republicans like Karl Rove and Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour.

But Kinder has also been plagued throughout 2012 by a string of negative headlines. He's gotten himself into hot water with some ill-advised tweets and accusations made by a former Penthouse model that put him on defense.

With the super committee's Nov. 23rd deadline looming, Republican Congressional Insiders' optimism about the committee's potential for success has begun to wane, while Democrats are largely maintaining their already gloomy outlook. According to the latest National Journal Congressional Insiders Poll, the percentage of Republican members of Congress surveyed who said success was "somewhat" or "very" unlikely has nearly doubled since early October.

Democrats and Republicans in Congress don't see eye-to-eye on much these days, but the members surveyed for this week's National Journal Congressional Insiders Poll agree on this -- Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta's tenure is off to a strong start.

Outsider. Businessman. Political newcomer.

These are attractive titles for a candidate to have at a time when fresh faces are in short supply and public disgust at career politicians is at an all-time high. Indeed, campaign strategists from both parties look at the prospect of nominating outsiders for battleground Senate and House campaigns as a very appealing option.

One success story Republican operatives like to point to is that of Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., who in 2010, emerged from obscurity to run a disciplined campaign as a businessman relentlessly focused on job creation against then-Sen. Russ Feingold, whom he caricatured as a career politician.

But a glance across the landscape, both this election and last, reveals that Johnson's success is more of an exception to the rule. While the private sector, first-time candidate profile is a sexy one, it often doesn't work.

Doesn't everyone love the way that former Godfather's Pizza CEO talks about himself in the third person? David Letterman does, and so he put together a little compilation honoring Herman Cain's "Herman Cain" refrains.

Also in late-night political jokes, Jon Stewart on Thursday suggested that perhaps Ron Paul will now get his shot at being the media front-runner. "For God sakes, a woman who never entered the race, Sarah Palin, got more heat from the media," he said.

And don't miss today's Must See Moment at 3:23 when The Late Show presents Paul's new approach to getting more air-time during debates:

Take our late-night poll after the jump...

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. The Arizona Supreme Court deals Republicans a redistricting setback, Herman Cain gets Secret Service protection, Connie Mack hangs tight with Bill Nelson in another poll, and is there room for one more in the Indiana Republican Senate primary? Here's today's rundown:

8) Move over, Tea Party. Step aside, Coffee Party. Make way for the Cocktail Party, the group of "un-concerned citizens, stirred and sometimes shaken into action in defense of the American spirit."

7) Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, is in first place in New Hampshire ... according to the state's fifth and sixth graders.

6) It's worth keeping an eye on the signature collection pace in Wisconsin, where the recall effort against Republican Gov. Scott Walker is underway. United Wisconsin, the coordinated effort to recall the governor, announced Monday night that in the first 48 hours, over 50,000 signatures have already been collected and over 20,000 people have already downloaded petitions from recall websites. The target number is over 540,000. Worth remembering also that Republicans will surely challenge some portion of the final signatures.

In a blow to Arizona Republicans and Gov. Jan Brewer, the state Supreme Court on Thursday reinstated the chair of the Independent Redistricting Commission, ousted after Brewer triggered a state Senate vote to remove her earlier this month.

Brewer convened a special session of the state Senate earlier on Nov. 1 in order to impeach chairwoman Colleen Mathis, charging that the commission, under her leadership, engaged in "gross misconduct" by producing a map that gave Democrats a chance to pick up seats in next year's congressional elections. The Republican-controlled Senate passed Brewer's motion.

But Mathis and the Commission appealed and the state's high court ruled in their favor on Thursday.

Consumer advocate and Harvard professor Elizabeth Warren and Rep. Tammy Baldwin, D-Wis., will hold a joint fundraiser on Monday, marking the first time the two Democratic Senate hopefuls have held a fundraising event together.

In September, Warren and Baldwin teamed up to form the Massachusetts Wisconsin Victory Fund in an effort to boost fundraising.

The Huffington Post reported that Democratic mega-donor Peter Buttenwieser is hosting the event in Philadelphia for the candidates, who have both been endorsed by former Sen. Russ Feingold, D-Wis. Tickets run from $250 to $10,000.

Baldwin is running for the seat being vacated by retiring Democratic Sen. Herb Kohl and Warren is challenging Republican Sen. Scott Brown in the Bay State.

He's the former executive director of an organization which advocated against New Hampshire's law legalizing same-sex marriage, but Republican gubernatorial candidate Kevin Smith says that repealing the law would not be on his priority list if elected.

"My position on the issue hasn't changed. I still support marriage as being one man and one woman," Smith said on a conference call announcing his campaign for statewide office. "I wouldn't put it on my agenda or priority list if I am became governor, but if a repeal bill came to my desk, I'd sign it."

In announcing his bid on Thursday, Smith kept his focus squarely on the economy, illustrating the difference between running a statewide campaign during a time when jobs are atop voters' minds and heading a group with more specific policy goals.

"You talk to people on the street, and you have segments of folks who are very passionate about the social issues, but the top issue for people on the street is they want to know are they going to have a job tomorrow?" he asked. "Are they going to have a job five years from now, ten years from now?"

Smith is formerly the head of Cornerstone Action and Policy Research. Cornerstone Action, the issue advocacy arm of the origination has focused on social issues like abortion and marriage. The group ran ads against Republican Senate candidate Bill Binnie, arguing he was too liberal on gay marriage and abortion. New Hampshire passed a law approving same-sex marriage in 2009.

A source passes along the details of Elizabeth Warren's first ad buy in Massachusetts, and she's spending over $465,000 to air the ad on broadcast channels over eight days, with the vast majority money being spent in the Boston market.

Nearly $444,000 is being spent on network TV in Boston from Nov. 15-23, while the rest is being spent in Springfield. $40,000 is being spent on cable.

Warren's positive, introductory spot began on Tuesday, just days after Crossroads GPS slammed her in a negative spot of their own. The size of the Crossroads buy, according to a Democratic source tracking the buy, was just over $238,000.

This cycle, we'll see a lot of games being played with miniscule ad buys meant to grab some earned media. But the Massachusetts Senate race is not a place we're likely to see that. Expect an expensive, nasty, targeted ad war over the next year.

The Daily Show mocked the lack of progress from the super committee charged with coming up with a plan to reduce the deficit.

"If we are going to achieve that deficit reduction, we are going to need a hero," Jon Stewart joked. Enter the super committee -- "a group of 12 lawmakers who gained their powers after having been bitten by a radioactive accountant and are now called upon to slash our deficits."

But things for the Justice League, er, congressional panel aren't going so ... super, Stewart observes. Watch to see which lawmaker's super power is "talking too much."

And don't miss today's Must See Moment at 0:36 when Jimmy Kimmel presents the Unintentional Joke of the Day courtesy of a city council member visiting the Occupy Wall Street protest in Los Angeles:

Take our late-night poll after the jump...

Updated at 10:21 a.m.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Colorado Republicans are not happy with a redistricting proposal, state lawmakers in Alabama are inclined to give the state's immigration law a second look, Herman Cain attracts more negative headlines and retirement watch season is upon us. Here's today's rundown:

9) John Edwards's trial will begin on Jan. 30.

8) The New York Times takes a deeper dive into the decisions the administration has made on environmental issues, beginning with the determination to reject an EPA proposal to tighten the national smog standards, a move that Gene Karpinski, president of the League of Conservation Voters called "the worst thing a Democratic president had ever done on our issues."

7) Your lone tidbit of Senate news this morning: Wealthy businessman Nick Loeb and his fiancé Sofia Vergara will hold a press conference later today to announce whether he will run for the Senate in Florida.

6) The New York Times goes for the kill on city Comptroller John Liu -- once considered a favorite for mayor in 2013 -- putting their story on the arrest of a bundler for his campaign as their one-column, lead story in the paper's New York edition. The bundler is accused of using straw donors to circumvent city limits on individual contributions. The Post also put the story on their "wood."

5) Colorado Republicans are not happy with a congressional map that gives Democrats a shot at picking up two seats. They're going to challenge a court ruling on the map.

Former Surgeon General Richard Carmona's entrance into the Arizona Senate race last week gave Democrats just what they were looking for: A fresh-faced Hispanic candidate in a state with a growing Latino population where, despite the strong Republican tilt of the electorate, Democrats are bullish about making inroads.

While he may be new to politics, he bears some similarities to another Democrat who ran for the Senate for the first time six years ago.

"I think you could potentially describe him as the Latino Jim Webb of the 2012 cycle," suggested one neutral Arizona Democratic strategist.

There are several similarities between Webb of Virginia, who is retiring after one term, and Carmona. For starters, both men have accomplished military backgrounds and are Vietnam veterans who earned Purple Hearts. Webb served in the Marines; Carmona, the Army. When Webb ran in 2006, he enjoyed strong support from veterans. Carmona is hoping that he can count on something similar.

"He's very well-respected in the veteran community. He's just well-known. When people run for elected posts for like the American Legion, they even put things like 'Endorsed by Richard Carmona,'" the Arizona Democratic strategist said.

Neither Carmona nor Webb had run for elected office before mounting their first Senate campaigns, and both had previously served in Republican administrations; Webb as Secretary of the Navy under Ronald Reagan and Carmona as Surgeon General under George W. Bush.

The two share something else in common: controversial events in their pasts that will take some explaining.

New Hampshire Conservative activist Kevin Smith, the former head of Cornerstone Action, will run for governor in 2012, he confirmed to Hotline On Call on Wednesday, joining 2010 Senate candidate Ovide Lamontagne in the Republican race for the seat being vacated by retiring Democratic Gov. John Lynch.

Smith will announce his campaign on Thursday. The news of his decision was first reported by WMUR's James Pindell.

Earlier this fall, Smith stepped down from his position at Cornerstone as he continued to consider a gubernatorial run. Lamontagne, who like Smith is popular with Granite State conservatives, announced his bid in September.

On the Democratic side, former state Senate Majority Leader Maggie Hassan is the only declared candidate.

Republican candidates that ran for and lost statewide elected office in New York in 2010 are not eager to try their luck again against the only statewide candidate from the Empire State up in 2012: Democratic Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand.

Hotline On Call reached out to nine such Republicans. Six of those 2010 candidates replied, including candidates for the Senate, governor and attorney general. None expressed definitive interest in 2012, suggesting the state GOP will have to find new talent to take on one of 2012's safest Democratic incumbents who also boasts a well-stocked war chest: Gillibrand had $7 million in her account at the end of the third quarter.

So far, only first-year Nassau County Comptroller George Maragos has declared his candidacy. According to a Siena College poll released on Wednesday, Gillibrand has a huge 65 percent to 17 percent lead over the Republican.

Republicans have also expressed interest in 2010 comptroller candidate Harry Wilson, though he has yet to make any formal statement.

Former Rep. Joe DioGuardi, Gillibrand's last general election opponent, said he is concentrating instead on speaking out about the nation's debt, saying that he feels like "Paul Revere back on his horse ringing the bell."

Former Port Authority Commissioner Bruce Blakeman, who lost the GOP primary to DioGuardi but ran in the general election on the Tax Revolt party line, declined a Senate run. He may consider a House bid instead.

2010 GOP gubernatorial nominee Carl Paladino has ruled out a Senate run. However, he left options open for challenging Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo in 2014, saying, "It depends upon my mood at the time."

Paladino's 2010 running mate, Chautauqua County Executive Greg Edwards, was more open to a run, but cautioned that he has no plans for a campaign right now.

"I have no plans at the current time to run statewide in 2012. I just never say never because I just also believe that you have to consider opportunities when they're presented," said Edwards.

How similar is former Sen. George LeMieux to his former boss, Republican-turned-independent Charlie Crist? Ask former state House Majority Leader Adam Hasner, and you'd hear that they are identical. Ask LeMieux, and you'd hear something different. But one thing is for sure: there is a notable donor connection between LeMieux and Crist, as the Orlando Sentinel finds:

An Orlando Sentinel analysis of campaign-finance data finds LeMieux has collected more than $270,000 from people who supported Crist's failed U.S. Senate run as an independent in 2010. That represents 20 percent of the money LeMieux's campaign has raised.

Leno and Letterman are taking a break from making jokes about the sexual harassment allegations against Herman Cain. This week comedians are taking aim at the candidate's recent interview with the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel in which Cain stumbled over a response to a question on Libya.

Don't miss today's Must See Moment where Jay Leno reveals what President Obama made world leaders wear in Hawaii during the APEC summit.

Take our late-night poll after the jump...

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Romney gets slammed by a prominent Iowa conservative, a trio of liberal outside groups hits Rehberg/Heller/Scott Brown with new radio ads, the Georgia GOP plans a March debate and Spence and Kinder may have more in common than you think. Here's today's rundown:

9) Remember Craig Huey, the California businessman who ran against Democratic Rep. Janice Hahn earlier this year? He's giving politics another whirl, and will run for a new state assembly seat in the Golden State.

8) Sup, bro! The St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that businessman Dave Spence and Missouri Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder were fraternity brothers at the University of Missouri-Columbia, and Kinder's campaign acknowledged the two were friends.

7) The Georgia GOP and CNN will host a March 1 Republican presidential debate that will take place less than one week before "Super Tuesday."

6) Nevada Republican National Committeewoman Heidi Smith said on a taping of the Nevada Newsmakers show that Republican Sen. Dean Heller had "disappeared from the common man" since he traded his House seat for a Senate seat in May. The AP reports she later backed off the comments after Heller scheduled an event in northern Nevada, but still not something you want to be hearing from an ostensible ally if you are Heller.

5) Americans United for Change, AFSCME and the SEIU are teaming up to run three television radio ads against Sens. Scott Brown, R-Mass., and Heller, R-Nev., and Rep. Denny Rehberg, R-Mont., warning the three about making Medicare cuts. "If you vote to cut Medicare, Senator Heller - I will remember it every time I visit my doctor," says the ad running in Reno. The Brown spot is running in Boston and the Rehberg ad is running Missoula and Billings.

It's back.

After a busy summer in Wisconsin that saw a recall campaign nearly flip control of the state Senate, Democrats are at it again, this time going after Republican Gov. Scott Walker himself.

Recalling Walker will be a more difficult undertaking than knocking off a few state lawmakers who backed the governor's plan to curtail bargaining rights of public employees, and there are serious questions about whether labor, liberal activists and groups, and other Democrats will be willing to devote the resources necessary to complete such a monumental task. But neither side is taking anything for granted in advance of what promises to be another divisive stretch in Badger State politics. Here's everything you need to know about the effort to recall Walker:

Here's something you don't see every day: former North Dakota Democratic Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp organized two of her fellow Senate candidates -- both a Democrat and a Republican -- to unite in going after the Republican frontrunner, Rep. Rick Berg. The three candidates hit Berg for mailers sent from his congressional office. The Fargo Forum:

Berg's three announced opponents in the Senate race, Republican Duane Sand and Democrats Heidi Heitkamp and Tom Potter, issued a joint news release Monday calling on him to account for the four documents sent to North Dakotans in recent weeks and to disclose how much money he has spent.

...

Sand, who will challenge Berg next March for the Republican U.S. Senate endorsement, said he plans to issue a separate statement on the issue later this week. But he said he was called Monday by Heitkamp's campaign to see if he had similar concerns about Berg's letters to constituents.

"We're not teaming up with Heidi so much as I think we both feel the same way about this issue," he said. "It may be the only time next year we agree on something, but we agree on this."

While it's nothing new for candidates to gang up on a frontrunner, it's not often done in such an overtly coordinated way, let alone among candidates from both parties.

More good news this week for Sen. Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., already one of the cycle's safest Democratic incumbents:

-- Bill Guidera, an attorney and a senior vice president with News Corp, has decided he will not make a GOP bid for the seat. His decision comes after initially saying no, but then reconsidering.

-- Last week, the Independence Party chair said it won't be fielding a candidate against Klobuchar either. That leaves her with nominal Republican competition to worry about.

For more on why Klobuchar is safe in a year other swing state Democrats elected in 2006 are vulnerable, check out my April piece.

Five Republican Senate candidates will participate in a debate in Richland, Michigan hosted by a tea party group on Saturday. But missing from the roster of expected attendees is former Rep. Pete Hoekstra.

"Congressman Hoekstra has another commitment that day. He will be participating in a debate with the same organizer in January," Hoekstra spokesman Brian Jones told Hotline On Call.

Cornerstone Schools co-founder Clark Durant, along with Gary Glenn (who was recently endorsed by Mike Huckabee) and three other candidates will participate in the debate, which is hosted by the Plainwell Patriots, the Kalamazoo Gazette reports.

Keep an eye on the clips coming out of the debate to see if Durant goes after the absent Hoekstra. There will also be a straw poll at the event.

Late-night hosts on Monday had fun with Republicans' performances at the CBS News-National Journal debate this weekend.

"Ron Paul only got 89 seconds to speak," Jimmy Fallon joked. "Seriously? Rick Perry gets more time than that to try to remember something."

Don't miss today's Must See Moment at 2:31 when Craig Ferguson reports on President Obama's message for China at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum this weekend:

Take our late-night poll after the jump...

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. The recall effort against Scott Walker kicks off today, and he's already taking preemptive measures. Meanwhile, Scott Brown bucks his party, Dave Spence is running for governor of Missouri and Herman Cain experiences a (very) awkward silence. Here's today's rundown:

10) What happens in Vegas: So, how does a former mayor of a major metropolitan city spend his time after being in office? If you're former Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman, the answer is you audition women to staff your new Beef, Booze and Broads steakhouse. The event is being dubbed "broad-casting." By the way, the bar features a "No-bama" cocktail.

9) The latest sign that Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., has an eye on running for vice president: He told Fox News "the Republican Party should not be labeled as the anti-illegal immigration party. Republicans need to be the pro-legal immigration party." If Rubio were to be nominated, he'd be counted on to reach out to moderate voters, not just those on the right, and his tone signals an awareness of that fact.

8) The Fix reported Monday afternoon that Republican businessman Dave Spence will run for governor of Missouri. In media interviews over the last few weeks, Spence sounded at times like he was waiting to see what Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder was going to do. But, now his decision to run presents a dilemma for Republicans, and for Kinder. The lieutenant governor hasn't yet announced his plans; he is expected to do so later this month.

7) Sen. Scott Brown, R-Mass., is going against the grain of most Senate Republicans by supporting the nomination of Richard Cordray to lead the federal Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. The CFPB was the brainchild of his Democratic opponent, Elizabeth Warren.

Is consumer advocate and Harvard professor Elizabeth Warren the biggest rock star candidate in the 2012 Senate races?

Judging by the turnout at her campaign events, the answer so far, is yes.

Warren has been slammed by Republicans as the hand-picked candidate of the national Democrats and a carpetbagger from Oklahoma. But a glance at the early stages of her campaign suggests Warren's most impressive strides to date are those she's made with Bay State supporters.

While she raised 70 percent of her third quarter haul from outside of Massachusetts, the, her total haul was $3.14 million, meaning that nearly $1 million was raised from donors in the state. That's no small sum.

There's another reason to believe Warren is also riding a wave of enthusiasm inside the state -- one we haven't seen with other top Senate recruits so far this cycle.

The Democrat drew a crowd of about 1,000 people at a campaign rally in Roxbury on Sunday, NECN reports. And, as the Boston Globe notes, it's not her first campaign event to draw a large number of people. Warren has also held volunteer events that have consistently drawn hundreds of people.

On November 3, she drew 500 supporters to an event. The event was not in the populous Boston metro area; rather it was in Pittsfield, a city in Western Massachusetts. On November 6, she spoke to a crowd of about 200 at a similar event.

Those are numbers even the presidential candidates wouldn't turn up their noses at.

Updated with Walker's fundraising numbers

How worried is Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker over the prospect that he could be recalled? Worried enough to run a television ad during tonight's Green Bay Packers' Monday Night Football game against the Minnesota Vikings.

Walker will be the subject of a recall campaign organized labor will launch at midnight tonight. Labor unions and Democratic Party activists, which spent tens of millions of dollars recalling six Republican state senators this summer, must gather at least 540,000 valid signatures in the next 60 days to force Walker back on the ballot.

Walker is using campaign funds to defend himself, starting with an advertisement featuring a Waukesha school board member.

"I'm committed to working together to create more jobs, to improve our schools and to protect our seniors," Walker says. "Wisconsin's best days are yet to come. It won't happen overnight, but we are on our way."

On screen flashes the words "Progress: Yes. Recall: No."

Walker has plenty of cash with which to finance early advertisements. His latest campaign finance report, which documents money Walker's camp had on hand on June 30, showed he had $2.5 million in the bank. And Walker can raise unlimited amounts of money during the recall period.

Recall proponents realistically have to turn in 700,000 signatures to ensure they have enough to make up for invalid signatures. That means an average of more than 10,000 a day. It'll be a tough task, but it's one Walker is clearly worried about.

See the ad Walker will run after the jump.

Consumer advocate and Harvard professor Elizabeth Warren launched her first television advertisement in the Massachusetts Senate campaign, a biographical spot called "Who I Am." The ad lands as outside groups have already gone on the attack against both Warren and Sen. Scott Brown, R-Mass., -- something the Democratic front-runner mentions at the top of her 60-second ad.

"I'm running for the United States Senate and before you hear a bunch of ridiculous attack ads, I want to tell you who I am," says Warren.

GOP-aligned Crossroads GPS targeted Warren in a television ad last week, tying her to the Occupy Wall Street protests and the crimes protesters have committed. It's a tactic the Massachusetts Republican Party has also used. Brown has been attacked already as well in television ads from the League of Conservation Voters.

Warren's ad doesn't mention Brown, focusing instead on introducing herself to voters and highlighting her upbringing. "Like a lot of you, I came up the hard way," Warren says in the ad. "My dad sold carpet. When he had a heart attack, my mom went to work so we could keep our house. We all worked."

Another potential primary challenger to Sen. Orrin Hatch, R-Utah, has emerged: state Rep. Chris Herrod, who has crafted a reputation around immigration and was an opponent of a divisive guest worker measure in the state. He also has a group of supporters with a unique moniker. The Provo Daily Herald:

Some Herrod supporters have even gone as far as to call themselves "Herrodtics." The name came in response to a Daily Herald editorial that observed those who opposed HB 116 may have differing opinions on the issue from that of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. Herrod said this group came together to show their support to him during a tough battle on the immigration debate.

Herrod hopes to have a decision by the end of the year, the paper reported. State Sen. Dan Liljenquist is also considering a run, and is regarded as a strong potential primary opponent.

Echoing a sentiment expressed earlier this month by his colleagues at the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, Democratic Governors Association Chairman Martin O'Malley said on Monday morning that the 2012 landscape comes down to choices between Republican and Democratic candidates.

"It is not the largest year; it's not the year when we have 30 governor's offices up," O'Malley said at National Press Club Newsmaker briefing. "But it's an important year, and some of the most important work that will be going on as far as it plays into the presidential race, will be the contrast of Democratic governors, who bring people together ... and Republican governors that are giving us ... frankly some pretty mean-spirited, narrow minded, right-wing ideology that never created a single job. And that will be the choice. And it might also be a choice that finds an echo in the national campaign."

Expect to hear this argument from Democrats often as November 2012 grows near. On the one hand, it's a sign of the unpopularity of the president and his agenda in many of the battlegrounds where key gubernatorial, Senate and House races will be contested. But O'Malley's point, insofar as it applies to governor's races, may carry more weight than the arguments being offered by the heads of the Democratic federal campaign committees.

Consider that in the two states where Democrats won governor's races this year -- West Virginia and Kentucky -- President Obama remains very unpopular. Republicans made an effort to tie the president to the Democratic nominees in both places, but it didn't work well enough to swing the election in their favor. West Virginia Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin and Kentucky Gov. Steve Beshear each kept the president at a safe distance. Tomblin wouldn't even say during the campaign whether he was voting for Obama next year.

But the real test will come next year, when Democrats in Missouri, North Carolina, Montana and New Hampshire, among others, will be defending control of governor's mansions. In three of those four states, the president's job approval was below average during the first half of 2011, according to Gallup daily tracking data (in North Carolina, it was average). And the only realistic pickup opportunity for the party is in Indiana, where Obama's numbers have also been below average.

History has shown no correlation between states won by Democratic and Republican presidential nominees and the partisan control of the governor's mansion. But that doesn't mean Democrats in swing states can rest on their laurels. The Republican Governors Association sports a significant cash advantage over the DGA and will no doubt be spending money where it can to inflict damage on Democratic contenders. And if this year's races are any indication, that will mean television ads featuring the president himself.

Below the jump, check out the other notable nuggets from O'Malley's morning briefing.

Think of today as a microcosm of the Texas Senate race.

Republican Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, whose frontrunner status can be credited to his high name ID, wealth and strong fundraising , flexed each of those muscles today by releasing his first television ad of the race, a six figure cable buy that includes no mention of his opponents.

Former state Solicitor General Ted Cruz, meanwhile, announced the endorsement of Dr. James Dobson, an influential evangelical conservative figure. He's the latest in a parade of national figures -- including Sens. Jim DeMint, R-S.C., and Mike Lee, R-Utah -- that have caught the eye of this outlet, among others, but hasn't so far moved the needle much in his favor, as Kevin Brennan argued last week.

Rick Perry's "oops" debate moment and Herman Cain's changing stories about his sexual harassment allegations were satirized on Saturday Night Live this weekend.

The faux Perry asked Mitt Romney during the sketch, "I'm not going to be president, am I?" Watch to see how "Romney" reacts:

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Dewhurst hits the airwaves in Texas with his first TV spot, Romney and Gingrich get good marks for their debate performances, Gregg launches his governor's campaign in Indiana and Chelsea Clinton will join NBC News. Here's today's rundown:

9) President Obama decided to skip APEC's "silly shirt" tradition this year.

8) Chelsea Clinton will become a full-time special correspondent for NBC News.

7) Arizona Republican strategist Chris DeRose is out with a new book, "Founding Rivals: Madison vs. Monroe, the Bill of Rights, and the Election That Saved a Nation," which takes a look at the 1789 Madison/Monroe congressional election, which DeRose argues resulted in the Bill of Rights.

6) Maine Democratic state Rep. Jon Hinck officially announced his Senate candidacy on Saturday. He's the second Democrat to announce a challenge to Republican Sen. Olympia Snowe. So far though, no real heavyweight contenders in either party have emerged against the Republican senator.

After canceling an interview with Fox News Channel's Greta Van Susteren a little over a week ago, Gloria Cain is pre-taping an interview alongside her husband Herman Cain on Sunday with Van Susteren. The interview comes after weeks of questions surrounding allegations of sexual harassment by several women. The interview is set to air on Monday's 10 p.m. edition of On the Record.

Gloria Cain has been an elusive figure in the whole Cain campaign, and with increasing questions regarding the allegations. Gloria Cain hasn't appeared on any national news outlets. Cain has referred to his wife stating her "200 percent" support of him in his run for president as well as his denial of the sexual harassment accusations.

The former Godfather's pizza CEO has capitalized on the allegations as much as he can, claiming he's raised over $9 million since October 1, and has used that to buy ad space on Google.

The Fox News interview will air at the same time as ABC News' Diane Sawyer interviews Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, D-Ariz., in her first television appearance since her January assassination attempt.

What we at The Hotline learned this week:

-- The talking points coming out of Tuesday's elections in Virginia are easy to write: "We won the majority," Republicans say. "We held more seats than we were supposed to," Democrats counter. In truth, the results mirror national trends: Democrats lost two rural seats they'd held for years, seats in which Yellow Dog incumbents had held on forever. Republicans couldn't make as many inroads as they would have liked in Northern Virginia, with a major exception in Loudoun County.

-- The lesson former Democratic National Committee chairman Tim Kaine and former Republican Sen. George Allen's Senate campaign advisers took from Tuesday: Virginia is as purple as it's ever been. Expect Allen to keep hammering Kaine for his association with President Obama. So far, polls show Kaine isn't suffering from that association, though with Obama's favorable ratings so deep in the dumps, it's a constant danger.

-- With his party claiming the slimmest majority possible in one chamber and obtaining a historically large one in the other, Virginia Republican Gov. Bob McDonnell will face tests in 2012 about just what GOP items he's willing to sign into law. Some issues like energy exploration and school choice will likely be popular with the base without sparking significant public outcry. But when it comes to social issues like the Personhood law rejected in Mississippi, McDonnell will have to choose between spending political capital or maintaining his conservative-leaning-centrist image.

-- Texas Gov. Rick Perry's biggest problem goes far beyond flubbing a prefabricated debate line. The underlying questions that will determine the outcome of the Republican presidential nominating process is whether an alternative to Mitt Romney can coalesce the support they need to knock him off, and who that person might be. Right now, there's no reason for a Republican voter to pick Perry as the answer to the second question.

-- South Carolina has a spotless record of picking the GOP presidential nominee since 1980. Right now, Romney looks like the unassuming frontrunner there. Sure, he's never going to be the favorite of the tea party or the evangelical wing of the party, but electability is going to matter when it gets down to the third state. Especially if Romney can perform well in Iowa and sweep New Hampshire, he'll be the frontrunner in South Carolina, which has a habit of coming around to the eventual nominee (see: McCain in 2008).

-- While overall, Herman Cain's damage control regarding the sexual harassment allegations have been unconventional, slow, and inconsistent, this week the campaign utilized more traditional methods to fight the scandal in early states. In Iowa, campaign staffers called caucus-goers to deny the allegations and solicit support, and the campaign released robocalls in Nevada that seek to highlight the businessman's integrity and lengthy marriage. Small steps in the right direction for Cain, but he'll still have to develop a much better macro media strategy to push back against big stories like the harassment allegations.

-- Some of the toughest 2012 Senate races to predict will occur in states that won't be competitive at the presidential level. It's very likely that Obama will lose Nebraska, Missouri and Montana, while winning Massachusetts, New Mexico, and Hawaii. Democratic senators in the first set of states will undoubtedly outperform the president, while Republicans in the second set will surely do better than the GOP's presidential nominee. And yet, with today's polarized electorate, it may be asking too much of a Senate candidate to win a race while his or her presidential candidate is losing the same state by 15 points or more. Meanwhile, it's likely that the presidential and Senate contests will closely track each other in toss-up states like Nevada, Virginia, and Wisconsin, where even an extra point or two could result in split Senate/presidential decisions.

Indiana Democratic gubernatorial candidate John Gregg's campaign logo, complete with his signature mustache:

(h/t Daily Kos Elections)

This Saturday, the GOP presidential candidates will attend the CBS/National Journal debate in South Carolina to discuss foreign policy. The Sunday shows will address the fallout from the week's two debates and the approaching deadline for the congressional super committee.

On NBC's Meet the Press, Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., will talk about the debates and developments in the 2012 race. Coming off the debate, former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman will be on CBS' Face the Nation. Republican National Committee chair Reince Priebus will discuss 2012 developments on CNN's State of the Union.

Discussing President Obama's 2012 chances and the South Carolina debate from the previous night, Maryland Democratic Governor Martin O'Malley, Mississippi Republican Governor Haley Barbour, and Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., will be on Face the Nation. Democratic National Committee chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz will also be discussing Obama's path to reelection.

Congress' super cmmittee's deadline is fast approaching. Members of the super sommittee, Sen. Pat Toomey, R-Pa., and Assistant Minority Leader James Clyburn, D-S.C., will be on Fox News Sunday. Rep. Jeb Hensarling, R-Texas, Sen. Mark Warner, D-Va., and Sen. Tom Coburn, R-Okla., will analyze the Super Committee's quest for compromise on CNN's State of the Union.

ABC's This Week will have a political roundtable to discuss the week's events.

Check out the full listings after the jump.

The two-person race between community organizer Ilya Sheyman and businessman Brad Schneider for the Democratic nomination significantly changed this week when U.S. Air Force Reserve colonel and businessman John Tree announced his candidacy. The three men are competing to face off against freshman Rep. Bob Dold, R-Ill., in the North Shore district.

Until now, Sheyman seemed to have the latest momentum to win the Democratic nod. The 25-year-old activist, who has worked with Democracy for America and MoveOn.org, has seen his fundraising numbers rise and endorsements flow in. For some time, Schneider led in both fundraising and party clout. But since receiving the endorsements of Reps. Keith Ellison, D-Minn., Raúl Grijalva, D-Ariz., and Jesse Jackson, Jr., D-Ill., in October--plus the early support from former Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean--it seemed like Sheyman had the momentum. Rep. Danny Davis, D-Ill., also announced his support on Thursday.

But Lauren Beth Gash, the chairwoman of the 10th District Democrats, says Tree's announcement adds a new dynamic to the race.

"He's a very strong candidate, as are the other candidates who are running," she said. "It changes the dynamic significantly."

Missouri Republican Lt. Gov Peter Kinder has a checkered past when it comes to Twitter, and a re-tweet from earlier today about free wings at Hooters shows that well, perhaps, his team should go back to the drawing board when it comes to deciding what makes for good Twitter fodder, and what doesn't.

The tweet has since been removed from Kinder's feed, a signal that he, or someone on his team, recognized the misstep. A Democratic strategist passes along a screen shot.

The first primary challenger to Utah Republican Gov. Gary Herbert has emerged, and it's state Rep. Ken Sumsion.

"I can work with the Legislature. I can work with the citizens of the state. I feel it's our time. It's our time as a state," Sumsion told the Deseret News. "We can step out and lead."

Sumsion also chaired the state legislature's redistricting committee, and during the redistricting process, he raised some questions about whether the governor's staff pressured lawmakers on redistricting. Questions about whether Herbert was trying to influence the process to make Democratic Rep. Jim Matheson's district safer for the Democrat were raised by others, including Matheson's 2010 GOP opponent. The thinking went, if Matheson was satisfied with his district, he would not challenge Herbert in the governor's race.

Herbert signed the redistricting map that passed the legislature. Meanwhile, Matheson has not ruled out a gubernatorial run, though he has said he won't run for the Senate in 2012.

Herbert is unpopular on the right in Utah, and has angered many tea party activists in the state. Sumsion, as the Deseret News points out, is one of the founders of the Legislature's conservative Patrick Henry caucus.

Buried in a Grand Rapids Press story about Cornerstone Schools co-founder and Republican Senate candidate Clark Durant's Thursday meeting with a group of college students is a nugget about the nation's wealth gap. In the swing state of Michigan, hit hard by the country's economic woes, this quote is going to raise some eyebrows:

In regards to the Occupy Wall Street movement, Durant said the protesters should "go find a job." In regards to the wealth gap the movement decries, Durant said, "I think it should be wider."

National Journal's Political Insiders expect embattled candidate Herman Cain to remain in the race for the Republican presidential nomination at least through the Iowa caucuses in early January, but that doesn't mean they think it's a good idea. While two-thirds of the Republicans and three-quarters of the Democrats in this week's Insiders Poll predicted Cain would soldier on, many on both sides expressed dismay or derision at the prospect.

As the Republican presidential candidates prepare to take part Saturday night in the first foreign-policy-focused debate of the campaign, National Journal's Political Insiders say the GOP candidate with the most credibility on those issues is one with some of the lowest odds of taking the nomination. Nearly a third of Republicans and nearly three-quarters of Democrats say Jon Huntsman carries the foreign policy banner for the GOP, but none of them seem to think it will help his chances.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Perry laughs at himself on Letterman, Elizabeth Warren picks a campaign manager, Republicans are dealt a redistricting blow in Colorado and Democrat Edd Houck concedes in Virginia. Here's today's rundown:

9) Texas Gov. Rick Perry played the you-can't-laugh-at-me-if-I'm-laughing-at-myself card on Letterman Thursday night, when he delivered the top ten reasons why he forgot the name of the third Cabinet agency he intends to cut if elected president. #6 -- "Hey listen. You try concentrating with Mitt Romney smiling at you. That is one handsome dude."

8) The Hotline's Kevin Brennan takes a closer look this morning at Texas Republican Senate candidate Ted Cruz, who, for all the national buzz he is attracting, has yet to make a notable dent in the polls locally.

7) Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., is backing former Rep. Mark Neumann's, R-Wis., Senate candidacy.

6) Elizabeth Warren has selected Mindy Myers, the former chief of staff to Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, D-R.I., as her campaign manager in the Massachusetts Senate race.

Rep. Connie Mack, R-Fla., has not officially declared that he will seek the GOP nomination to face Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson next November, but a new Quinnipiac University poll out early Friday shows that Mack would become the frontrunner for his party's nomination, and he would seriously endanger Nelson's reelection.

Mack has vaulted to the lead in the Republican primary, according to the poll. He outpaces the field with 32 percent, while no other candidate earns double-digit support. Former Republican Sen. George LeMieux is second, with 9 percent, followed by retired Army colonel Mike McCalister at 6 percent. Former state House Majority Leader Adam Hasner and businessman Craig Miller each earned just 2 percent. Forty-five percent of Republicans remain undecided.

Quinnipiac only tested Mack against Nelson, and the result is startling: Nelson leads Mack by just 2 points, 42 percent to 40 percent. Each candidate holds just under 80 percent of their respective party bases; Nelson leads by 8 points among independents.

That Nelson is only at 42 percent in the matchup with Mack is surprising considering his positive approval rating in the poll: 47 percent of voters approve of the way Nelson is handling his job as senator, while just 27 percent disapprove. That is an improvement over his performance in mid-September, when his net-approval rating was 13 percent (45 percent approval, 32 percent disapproval).

The Miami Herald reported two weeks ago that Mack, the son of a former senator, would enter the race, but Mack has not made an official announcement about his candidacy.

Meanwhile, Quinnipiac found no erosion in the approval rating for Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., after media outlets reported the freshman senator may have embellished details of his parents' emigration to the U.S. in the 1950s. Now, 49 percent of voters approve of the job Rubio is doing, equal to his approval rating in September, before the news reports.

If there is a Marco Rubio-esque candidate anywhere in the Republican fold this year, a fresh face who can represent a changing party with a renewed take on conservatism, it should be Ted Cruz.

The former Texas solicitor general has been the focus of enormous political attention, especially for a neophyte. George Will wrote a column praising Cruz in June, and the National Review put the Senate candidate on its cover last month. He has won the endorsements of powerful conservative groups like Club for Growth and FreedomWorks, as well as Sens. Jim DeMint, R-S.C., Mike Lee, R-Utah and Rand Paul R-Ky. And Cruz has notched a series of straw poll victories at events held by local conservative groups in Texas.

But for all that attention, Cruz is hardly the front-runner in the race to succeed retiring Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison. In fact, he's quite a long, long way behind. A survey conducted for Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst (R) and obtained by Hotline shows Cruz with just 6 percent of the vote, behind former Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert's 9 percent and Dewhurst's 50 percent.

Only 7 percent of those surveyed viewed Cruz favorably, while 56 percent viewed Dewhurst favorably -- and just 7 percent viewed the frontrunner unfavorably. Leppert had a 18 percent favorability rating in the poll, which was conducted by well-known Texas pollster Mike Baselice.

Of course, a poll conducted for one of Cruz's rivals is by no means a definitive take on the race. But that poll mirrors results of other surveys conducted privately in the state in recent months.

The newly elected governor of Mississippi is a conservative Republican like his mentor, retiring Gov. Haley Barbour. A favorite of tea party voters, Phil Bryant is known for his tough stands on illegal immigration and his support for a controversial ballot measure requiring voters to show government-issued identification at polling stations. Read a new Almanac of American Politics profile of Bryant.

Here's another reminder that you don't even have to tweet anything controversial to get into trouble on Twitter; a lesson Rep. Jay Inslee's, D-Wash., gubernatorial campaign learned the hard way. The AP:

Campaign officials for the Democratic gubernatorial candidate said Thursday that a technical glitch led his Twitter account to follow a promoter of an Internet porn company. Inslee spokeswoman Jaime Smith says a volunteer had set up a program to automatically identify Twitter users who may be useful to engage on the social networking site.

A Republican source passes along a screenshot of the profile Inslee was following. He was one of five followers of the account, but no longer follows it.

American Crossroads is running advertisements hitting five Democratic Senate contenders, as Sean Sullivan wrote this morning. Here's what they're spending in two of those states, Virginia and Massachusetts, according to several Democratic sources tracking the buys:

Massachusetts
Springfield: $21,325, or approximately 159 gross ratings points
Boston: $165,200, 207 points
Providence: $50,499, 212 points
Albany: $1,106, 7 points.

Virginia
Richmond: $33,375, 303 points
Roanoke: $32,950, 397 points
Washington: $180,875, 213 points
Norfolk: $49,345, 366 points

So, not the world's largest ad buys, and nowhere close to the most significant expenditures we're likely to see before Election Day next year. But these are hardly the tiny pittances some outside groups purchase in order to generate a lot of earned media. Voters will see these ads an average of two or three times each, and for a blank canvass, that's significant.

It's also the first time anyone has paid for advertisements against Massachusetts Democrat Elizabeth Warren. That ad takes after Warren for her claim that she helped create the philosophical underpinnings of the Occupy Wall Street movement.

Updated at 3:00 p.m.

Former Surgeon General Richard Carmona will run for the Senate in Arizona, giving Democrats a sought-after recruit who was wooed by President Obama.

"After returning to Arizona and joining the business community, I have seen firsthand what it takes to get our economy moving. I have devoted my life to serving my country and my community," Carmona said in a statement on Thursday afternoon. "After talking with my family, my friends, and fellow Arizonans, I have decided to run for the United States Senate. I will make a more formal announcement in the coming weeks."

Carmona joins former state Democratic Party chairman Don Bivens in the primary for the open seat.

"I welcome Richard Carmona into the race and look forward to a vigorous debate and primary campaign," said Bivens in a statement. "While some in DC have selected their candidate for Arizona, I am proud to have the support of hundreds of Arizonans and prominent Arizona leaders like former Congressman Harry Mitchell, former US Senate nominee Jim Pederson and former Congresswoman Ann Kirkpatrick."

"As our Senator, I won't become part of the partisan bickering that consumes Washington, but I will never abandon the core principles that made me a lifelong Democrat," he continued.

Carmona's entrance upends the Democratic field. Obama called Carmona in September to try to convince him to run, and he is being advised by Rodd McLeod, a well-regarded Arizona Democratic strategist who has managed Rep. Gabrielle Giffords's House campaigns. Though Carmona is a registered independent, Democrats have heavily courted him to run.

A couple of paces to the right by former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson, on an issue that still resonates with some conservatives. The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel:

In Rome, Thompson, who is Roman Catholic, portrayed himself as a strong proponent of adult stem cells - cells that aren't culled from embryos - while appearing to brush aside the embryonic stem cell research he once defended.

Mississippi voters on Tuesday knocked down a proposed amendment to their state constitution that would have extended the definition of "personhood" well beyond its current use, placing further restrictions on abortion rights.

That was bad news for the anti-abortion rights movement. It's also a bad omen for the three other personhood amendments floating around in other states, all of which are much less conservative than Mississippi.

In Montana, Nevada and Florida, anti-abortion rights activists are still trying to get their measures on the 2012 ballot. In all three states, activists told their local newspapers they weren't deterred by the Mississippi loss.

Florida activists will try to gather the 676,000 signatures they need to get an amendment on the ballot in 2014, but they're woefully short; they have just 20,000 signatures so far. Montana activists need 48,674 signatures to get on the ballot in 2012, and Nevada's anti-abortion group will begin collecting the 72,352 signatures they need by June 19 after a December court hearing on the language of the proposed amendment.

Pro-abortion rights activists can't rest yet, but it's safe to say their efforts to defeat any of the three proposed initiatives will be much easier in all three states than it was in Mississippi.

Former U.S. Comptroller General David Walker will not be running for the Senate in Connecticut, he announced in a statement Thursday morning.

"After Senator Joe Lieberman (I/D-CT) announced that he would not seek re-election, many people with different political affiliations, both in Connecticut and across the country, have strongly encouraged me to run for the U.S. Senate. ... While I believe these people may be correct that the key issues and political climate would support a successful Senate bid in 2012, I also believe that my background, relationships and current positions, including as Founder and CEO of the Comeback America Initiative (CAI) and as a national co-founder of No Labels, give me a unique ability to make a difference as a citizen patriot on critical issues that I care about without serving in the U.S. Senate," Walker said in a statement.

Walker had said on MSNBC back in June that he was considering a run. Some Republicans were trying to recruit him to run, but in his statement on Thursday, Walker said he has decided to remain an independent.

Walker's decision means the GOP primary can be inked in as a two-way matchup between former Rep. Chris Shays, and former WWE CEO Linda McMahon, with only minor competition to speak of otherwise.

Updated at 2:26 p.m.

The GOP-aligned Crossroads GPS is launching a wave of new television ads against three of this cycle's most vulnerable Democratic Senate incumbents and two of the party's strongest recruits.

In total, $1.8 million dollars is being spent over two weeks on the ads, which attack Sens. Jon Tester, D-Mont., Ben Nelson, D-Neb., and Claire McCaskill, D-Mo., as well as former Democratic National Committee Chairman Tim Kaine and consumer advocate and Harvard professor Elizabeth Warren.

The ads offer an early preview of the lines of attack likely to linger as the cycle progresses and are also a reminder of the significant influence super PACs and other outside groups will have on the 2012 election.

"These misleading attacks are solely designed to distract Americans from the disastrous Republican agenda that would protect special interests at the expense of middle class families," responded Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spokesman Matt Canter.

The ads against McCaskill, Tester, Nelson and Kaine use the same formula: tie the incumbents to President Obama. While each spot is different, the message is the same: a vote for them is a vote for the president.

The most interesting spot is the one running in Massachusetts against Warren. That ad seeks to paint Warren as an extremist, tying her to the Occupy Wall Street movement, which the ad portrays in a violent and otherwise negative light.

Warren has embraced the movement, and the state Republican Party has been hitting her over it, releasing daily "incident reports" about negative news related to the protests.

Occupy Wall Street is still in its nascent stage, so it's not yet clear who the movement will ultimately be received by the public. But the results of a recent Quinnipiac poll illustrate some of the perils of aligning oneself too closely with the movement: 30 percent of voters view the movement favorably, a 39 percent plurality view it unfavorably, and an additional 30 percent said they have not heard enough to form an opinion.

"14 million Americans out of work, but instead of focusing on jobs, Elizabeth Warren sides with extreme left protests," the narrator of the spot against Warren says.

Check out the Massachusetts, Missouri, Montana, Virginia and Nebraska ads after the jump.

Another Republican debate? "Those things will put you to sleep faster than Conrad Murray," David Letterman joked on Wednesday.

One moment from last night's debate caught Jimmy Kimmel's attention. "Rick Perry had an amazing meltdown," he said. "If I were Mitt Romney, I wouldn't even show up to these debates any more. I would just go to Hawaii and wait it out until the election, drink some caffeine-free diet Coke, sit there and watch Rick Perry and Herman Cain self destruct."

Don't miss today's Must See Moment at 3:19 where Letterman presents a new Cain campaign ad. What's so special about the spot? It's not an ad for president of the United States. Watch:

Take our late-night poll after the jump...

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Perry's "oops" moment will dominate the news cycle today, Hirshberg won't run for governor of New Hampshire, Democrats land a candidate to take on Rep. Tim Johnson, R-Ill., and Rep. Joe Walsh, R-Ill., says he was a "bit too passionate." Here's today's rundown:

10) Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal spent a whopping $10 million on his reelection bid, including about $3 million for advertising.

9) Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu will announce this morning he's already raised over $127,000 in just the first two weeks of his candidacy for Congress. The Arizona Republican's total includes over $120,000 for the primary - and the quick haul is also impressive given that the state's new district lines were thrown into chaos last week after Republican Gov. Jan Brewer impeached the chairwoman of the independent redistricting commission.

8) EMILY's List is adding two more female candidates to their "On the List" early designation today, both in California - state Sen. Gloria Negrete McLeod, running in a new 35th District against Rep. Joe Baca, D-Calif.; and state Sen. Denise Moreno Ducheny, who's running in the open 51st District to succeed Rep. Bob Filner, D-Calif., who's running for San Diego mayor.

7) Greene County State's Attorney Matt Goetten will announce his candidacy today to take on Rep. Tim Johnson, R-Ill., in the state's new 13th District, giving Democrats a top challenger after former state Rep. Jay Hoffman decided to run for the state legislature instead two weeks ago. The 13th District was the most improved in the state for Democrats, moving 7 points in their favor after redistricting. Physician David Gill, who's challenged Johnson three times, is also running.

11/11 CORRECTION: A previous version of this story incorrectly stated the last Democrat in charge of a 20-20 Senate. It was former Democratic Lt. Gov. Don Beyer.

At least one state GOP leader in Virginia indicated on Wednesday that Republicans have no intention of sharing power with Democrats in a 20-20 Senate.

While an almost certain recount looms in the 17th state Senate district, where Republican challenger Bryce Reeves leads by 86 votes over Democratic state Sen. Edd Houck following Tuesday's election, GOP Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling said that observers should make "no mistake about it, there is a Republican majority in the state Senate."

The Richmond Times-Dispatch reported that Bolling declared the state Senate would have a GOP majority leader and members of the party would also lead crucial committees.

This could set a dangerous precedent for Republicans if Democrats are completely left out of the governing equation and also affect the still-incomplete redistricting process. Democrats could return the favor if they were to regain the lieutenant governor's seat in 2013. Barring sudden retirements, the state Senate is due to keep its composition until 2015.

Don't mess with Rep. Joe Walsh - even if you're a constituent.

At a Sunday meet and greet with voters at UNO Bar & Grille in Gurnee, NBC Chicago shows the freshman Illinois Republican going off after a question about the economy, suggesting that the financial meltdown may have been by letting Wall Street regulate the financial industry.

Raising his voice in the now viral video, Walsh gets very animated and starts yelling, "I agree with you about that! That's not the problem! The problem is, you gotta be consistent, and I don't want government meddling in the marketplace. It's not the private marketplace that created this mess. What created this mess was your government, which demanded for years that everybody be in a home... Don't blame the banks. Don't blame the marketplace for the mess we're in right now. I am tired of hearing this crap! This pisses me off. Too many people don't listen. Do you want more Dodd/Frank? Is that what you want!"

The questioner continues, but Walsh keeps speaking over him, and even threatens to remove the man from the event.

If you guessed Clark Durant, you'd be mistaken. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee has endorsed conservative activist Gary Glenn, president of the American Family Association of Michigan and a major underdog in the Republican primary.

"He has boldly led on issues of life, traditional marriage, and the Fair Tax. When I needed help in Michigan in 2008, Gary didn't wait until it was convenient or popular, he stood with me out of sheer courage of his views," Huckabee said in a statement issued through his political action committee.

It could be a boost for former Republican Rep. Pete Hoekstra in the GOP primary if, as Daily Kos Elections points out, Glenn gets any traction and is able to eat into any of Durant's conservative support. But that's a big if.

Sen. Orrin Hatch, R-Utah, is finally getting a challenger -- but not one who's likely to pose a major threat.

The Deseret News reports that Democrat Pete Ashdown, who ran against Hatch in 2006, will announce his campaign later this week. Ashdown received less than half the number of votes Hatch did in 2006.

And here's something you don't see every day: Ashdown's announcement is scheduled for Friday, 11/11 at 1:11 p.m.

The 60 Plus Association, a national group that bills itself as the "conservative alternative" to the AARP is hitting Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, with a significant six-figure television ad buy beginning Wednesday that hits the Democrat over health care.

"Obama's health care law cuts $500 billion from Medicare and creates a board of 15 unelected, unaccountable bureaucrats. It's like a Medicare IRS with the power to cut Medicare in order to pay for new government programs," a narrator says in the ad.

60 Plus is spending $750,000 on the advertisement, which specifically targets the creation of the Independent Payment Advisory Board.

"This IPAB board can ration care and deny certain Medicare treatments so Washington can fund more wasteful spending," says singer/actor Pat Boone in the ad.

"On Tuesday night, Ohioans overwhelmingly rejected Josh Mandel's anti-middle class agenda when they voted no on Issue 2, and it's no surprise that Mandel's out of state extremist friends are rushing to his aide with misleading attack ads that distort Sherrod Brown's record in an effort to prop up their ethically challenged candidate," responded Ohio Democratic Party spokesman Justin Barasky.

As the accusations of sexual harassment against Herman Cain continue grow in number, late-night hosts can't keep their hands off of the story.

"If this keeps up it seems very unlikely he will be president," Jimmy Kimmel joked. "Although it seems more and more likely that he will become governor of California,".

Don't miss today's Must See Moment at 1:11 where Jay Leno reveals a new Cain accuser from his days in the restaurant industry:

Take our late-night poll after the jump...

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. A Mississippi initiative which would have expanded the definition of the word "person" to the moment of fertilization, is soundly defeated, while an anti-labor law is repealed in Ohio. Meanwhile, there were no surprises in the gubernatorial races and control of the Virginia state Senate is up in the air. And Cain says he's not dropping out and Scott Brown breaks with the NRA. Here's today's rundown:

8) ABC News is up with a fun feature which sheds some light on the non-political sides of the GOP presidential candidates. Texas Gov. Rick Perry's favorite junk food? Vienna sausage and crackers. Who would Mitt Romney like to see play him in a movie? Gene Hackman.

7) The Federal Election Commission has finally approved 2012 convention money. Meanwhile, in Charlotte, site of the Democratic National Convention, Democratic Mayor Anthony Foxx cruised to a second term with 67 percent of the vote.

6) Sen. Scott Brown, R-Mass., said he plans to vote against an NRA-backed concealed weapons bill. The decision is notable, because, as the Boston Globe points out, it represents a break with the NRA, which supported Brown's campaign.

5) After appearing to walk back comments that he might run for governor even if Missouri GOP Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder runs, GOP businessman Dave Spence tells the AP he's considering running even if the lieutenant governor jumps in. "People need to know that there are alternatives to Peter Kinder," he said. "It doesn't make Peter Kinder a bad guy, but I think people need to know that there are alternatives out there."

On Election Day 2012, Democrats will be defending the presidency and a Senate at serious risk of flipping control, as well as trying to make gains in the House, where they are the minority party.

But there was plenty for the party to celebrate on Election Day 2011.

Among Democrats' victories on Tuesday night were the expected (but still very notable) gains: Repealing a measure in Ohio that curbed collective bargaining for public employees, winning reelection in a gubernatorial race in the red state of Kentucky and doing well down-ballot in the Bluegrass State, which will help the party develop a bench for future statewide contests.

But an unexpectedly decisive win elsewhere capped a successful evening. In Mississippi, an initiative that would have amended the state constitution to expand the definition of the word "person" to the moment of fertilization, was soundly defeated. Had the measure passed, the new definition of "person" would have banned abortions and set off a much larger national debate over the issue.

There were also reasons for Republican optimism. In Virginia, where the state Senate was at risk of flipping to Republican control, the GOP picked up one seat and appeared to be on the verge of picking up one more. But Democrats still have a chance of maintain the majority in the chamber, depending on the outcome of one very close race. If however, the Republican (who leads) holds on there, the state Senate would be deadlocked at 20-20, meaning Republican Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling would give the GOP an edge in a power sharing agreement.

The National Republican Congressional Campaign Committee is going up on Wednesday with television ads targeting Reps. Kurt Schrader, D-Ore., and Nick Rahall, D-W.Va., over their votes for the 2009 stimulus bill.

In nearly identical ads, the announcer asks, "You know the old saying -- fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice shame on me. Will Nick Rahall fool you again? Last time President Obama pushed a wasteful stimulus plan, Nick Rahall went along with it -- and we got burned. The economy got worse. Now President Obama is pushing more wasteful stimulus spending."

Both are small two week cable buys, with $14,000 going into the purchasing time against Schrader and $16,000 against Rahall. The ads are similar to ones the NRCC has also run against Reps. Dave Loebsack, D-Iowa, and Mike McIntyre, D-N.C. , and continues the GOP committee's TV campaign against Democrats they believe could be vulnerable next year.

In addition to the the governor's races, we're also watching other noteworthy developments across the country on this Election Night. We'll be using this space to provide updates on the important ballot referenda, down-ballot contests and recall/special elections throughout the evening.

-- Control of the Virginia state Senate comes down to 86 votes in a single district: Republican challenger Bryce Reeves exited election day with a 0.17 percent lead over Democratic state Sen. Edd Houck with all 69 precincts of the district centered in Spotsylvania County reporting, according to the Virginia State Board of Elections.

If Reeves is declared the winner, then Republicans will have picked up two state Senate seats and forced a 20-20 tie in party control. GOP Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling would give the GOP an edge but a power-sharing agreement for committee assignments would be likely in some form. State law says a recount in any race decided by less than half of a percentage point can be paid for by the state instead of the candidate. Political analyst Larry Sabato wrote in a tweet: "Canvass, then recount, will be required."

-- An initiative in Washington state to privatize liquor sales was passed: The retailer Costco put over $22 million in their effort to help pass the measure.

-- Arizona recall election: Republican state Senate President Russell Pearce faced a recall election on Tuesday, and results with all precincts reporting show that he is losing to Republican challenger Jerry Lewis by 1128 votes. Pearce was a key architect of SB 1070, the state's controversial immigration measure signed into law last year.

The Arizona Republic reported that Pearce all but conceded defeat, though elections officials said there were thousands of early and provisional ballots yet to be counted.

-- There were no surprises in the special election primaries in Oregon's 1st District: In the Democratic contest to succeed disgraced former Rep. David Wu, state Sen. Suzanne Bonamici sailed to victory. With 64 percent of precincts reporting, the Associated Press called the race with Bonamici leading with 67 percent of the vote to Oregon Labor Commissioner Brad Avakian's 23 percent. State Rep. Brad Witt was in third, garnering 6 percent support.

On the GOP side, sports management consultant Rob Cornilles handily won a five-way primary. With 64 percent of precincts reporting, Cornilles had 74 percent of the vote. Cornilles had challenged Wu last year, and was considered the best possible candidate for Republicans.

Bonamici held a significant lead in primary polls. She has also outraised her opponents, and went up on television during the primary. Cornilles has run a campaign ad already as well.

Bonamici and Cornilles will face off in a general election matchup on January 31, 2012, in the Democratic-leaning district.

-- Surprise in Mississippi: Initiative 26, which would have amended the state constitution to expand the definition of the word "person" to the moment of fertilization, has been defeated by a substantial margin. With 51 percent of precincts reporting, the Associated Press has projected that the "No" votes have it, leading the "Yes" votes 59 percent to 41 percent.

Had the measure passed, the new definition of "person" would have banned abortions and set off a much larger national debate over the issue. Social conservatives might have also used it as a vehicle to take a Roe v. Wade challenge to the Supreme Court.

Gubernatorial nominees from both parties favored passage of the measure.

Updated at 10:24 p.m.

Lt. Gov. Phil Bryant was elected governor of Mississippi Tuesday, succeeding term-limited Republican Gov. Haley Barbour in a state once controlled by Democrats. With 43 percent of precincts reporting, the Associated Press called the race with the Republican leading Hattiesburg Mayor Johnny DuPree 59 percent to 41 percent.

"For the first time in more than 125 years, Mississippi voters have elected back-to-back Republican governors," said Republican Governors Association Chair Bob McDonnell in a statement.

"Throughout the campaign, Phil made clear that as governor he will lead the state based on core conservative principles that promote job creation - low taxes, fair and predictable regulations, and a government that prioritizes its investments and lives within its means."

The results do not come as a surprise; Bryant was considered a heavy favorite from the beginning of the race. But Bryant's victory is the latest manifestation of the ongoing shift from blue to red in state government.

DuPree made history in his losing effort, becoming the first black candidate to win a major party's nomination for statewide office in Mississippi history.

The campaign was defined by civility, with both candidates eschewing personal attacks. The pair also agreed on many policy issues, making it hard for DuPree to overcome Bryant's advantages in name recognition and fundraising. In the closing weeks of the campaign, Bryant and his allies attempted to tie DuPree to President Obama and the national Democratic Party.

In each of the four governor's races this year -- West Virginia, Kentucky, Mississippi and Louisiana -- the incumbent party held the governorship, with two Republican victories and two Democratic victories.

Updated at 10:11 p.m.

Ohio voters have repealed Senate Bill 5, a controversial measure signed by freshman Republican Gov. John Kasich earlier this year that curbs collective bargaining for public employees. With 19 percent of the precincts reporting, the Associated Press has declared Issue 2 -- the ballot referendum to decide the future of SB 5 -- rejected with 63 percent voting no and just 37 percent voting yes. The outcome is major a victory for organized labor and Democratic activists.

From National Journal:

CONNECTIONS POLL: Public Doubts Congress Will Aid Economy

Kasich signed the measure, which also prevented public workers from striking, at the end of March, but a backlash from liberal activists and labor prompted a push to get the measure on the ballot, and by June, a record number of signatures were collected, subsequently prompting a referendum.

What followed was an expensive campaign by coalitions on both sides of the issue. But the outcome is not a surprise; in the weeks leading up to Election Day, public polling indicated that a repeal was the likely outcome.

Updated at 9:25 p.m.

Democratic Gov. Steve Beshear resoundingly won re-election in Kentucky. With 51 percent of precincts reporting, the Associated Press has called the race for Beshear, who leads Republican state Senate President David Williams, 58 percent to 32 percent. Independent candidate Gatewood Galbraith was pulling in 11 percent of the vote.

"Tonight, the people of Kentucky sent a message that they value Governor Beshear's relentless focus on creating jobs and opportunity now. In doing so, Kentuckians rejected the partisan politics of obstruction and division that national Republicans attempted to inject into this race," said Democratic Governors Association chairman Martin O'Malley, in a statement.

"It was a long year," said Williams in a statement. "Richie and I put forward a real plan for real jobs. I remain convinced that while the messenger wasn't popular, the agenda is correct."

Beshear's win is no surprise: though the gubernatorial race in the red state was once viewed as a potential pick-up opportunity for Republicans, Beshear has maintained a wide lead in the polls throughout the race, leaving only his margin of victory in question heading into Tuesday.

Beshear also raised about four times Williams' haul, and the Republican Governors Association stopped running ads for Williams well before the stretch run, as it became apparent it wasn't worth pouring more money in.

It's an impressive performance by Beshear in a state where President Obama is highly unpopular. He successfully kept his distance from the president and was helped by running against what turned out to be a very flawed opponent.

Sen. Scott Brown, R-Mass, warned his finance team at a Boston meeting last Friday that he's facing a tough electorate and won't be able to capitalize on the conservative energy that fueled his upset victory in 2010.

Instead, his campaign inner circle has concluded, he'll need to win about one-fifth of Democratic voters in Massachusetts to have a shot at defeating Democrat Elizabeth Warren, who has excited the liberal base in the state with her criticisms of Wall Street and income inequality, said sources who attended the meeting. That total, combined with winning 55 percent of independents, who make up 52 percent of the state's registered voters, would earn Brown his first full term, according to the campaign's math.

According to an internal Brown campaign memo obtained by National Journal headlined "2012 Is Not 2010," the finance team acknowledged, "Conservatives will likely be less motivated," and pointed to the "subsided" Tea Party revolt, the rise of the Occupy Wall Street movement, and "much higher turnout" driven by the presidential election.

"Scott is no longer perceived by 'Tea Party' as one of their own, but rather a true independent voice," reads the document.

According to the memo, Brown's campaign estimated that he will need to win about 430,000 more votes than in the 2010 special election, when he tallied 1,168,178 votes (52 percent) against Democrat Martha Coakley.

A Washington, D.C. federal court blocked the Republican-drawn Texas redistricting maps in a ruling Tuesday afternoon, clearing the path for a three-judge panel to draw new congressional lines expected to benefit Democrats.

After the GOP-controlled legislature passed the plan earlier this year, which was signed into law by Gov. Rick Perry, Texas Attorney General Greg Abbott decided to bypass the Department of Justice's Voting Rights Act-mandated review, hoping that the District of Columbia federal court would approve the plans without a full trial.

But the three-judge panel struck down that request, and with a full trial now looming and filing set to close next month ahead of a March primary, the San Antonio court will draw interim map to be used in the 2012 election. The new map is expected to be unveiled in the coming weeks.

Writing in their decision, the panel found that the state "used an improper standard or methodology to determine which districts afford minority voters the ability to elect their preferred candidates of choice and that there are material issues of fact in dispute that prevent this Court from entering declaratory judgment that the three redistricting plans meet the requirements of Section 5 of the Voting Rights Act."

Republicans had privately expected that a decision against them in the D.C. court was likely. In the GOP-drawn map, three of the state's four new seats that state is gaining in reapportionment would likely. have gone to Republicans. Now Democrats could pick up three of the four.

While mapmakers shored up the districts of freshmen Republicans Quico Canseco and Blake Farenthold in redistricting, their new seats could see significant revisions, particularly Canseco's San Antonio-based district.

Also catching a possibly lucky break: longtime Democratic Rep. Lloyd Doggett. One of two remaining Anglo Democrats in the Texas delegation, Doggett saw his Austin-based 25th district sliced up, and he announced he would run instead in the new Democratic-leaning 35th District - pitting him in a primary with up-and-coming state Rep. Joaquin Castro. Now, both sides say the new map is likely to restore more of Doggett's former, winnable seat, allowing for both Doggett and Castro to run in separate districts.

Sen. Jim DeMint, R-S.C., is endorsing underdog Republican candidate Don Stenberg in the Nebraska Senate race, he announced on Tuesday.

Stenberg has struggled to raise any money. He had just under $22,000 in his campaign account at the end of the third quarter, and nearly $122,000 in debt. DeMint acknowledged the challenge in his statement on Tuesday.

"The one complaint I hear most about him from the DC political class is that he can't raise money. This, of course, should be expected. He's a grassroots candidate and doesn't have national fundraising connections like establishment candidates," DeMint said in an email to supporters, adding that his influential Senate Conservatives group is "launching a new 'SCF Surge' campaign to raise $100,000 for Don Stenberg over the next seven days."

Stenberg is the third Senate challenger DeMint's SCF has endorsed so far this cycle. He previously endorsed Ohio Treasurer Josh Mandel and former Texas Solicitor General Ted Cruz.

Of the three, the endorsement of Stenberg is likely to irk national and establishment Republicans the most. In Nebraska, Attorney General Jon Bruning remains the frontrunner in the race. Following months of negative headlines and lousy fundraising, Bruning showed some signs of improvement: His fundraising was better in the third quarter, and he brought on new advisers to help right the ship.

DeMint is not the first prominent out-of-state conservative to enodrse Stenberg. The state treasurer is also backed by Sen. Mike Lee, R-Utah, and tea party group FreedomWorks.

After a report indicated that he raised the possibility of running for governor even if Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder does, Missouri Republican businessman Dave Spence appears to have backed off a bit. The key nugget in Monday's St. Louis Post-Dispatch story:

The Kirkwood High grad even told KMOX last week that he would not rule out challenging Kinder in a primary, though he walked those sentiments back in a conversation with the Post-Dispatch.

"I'm just waiting for the dust to settle on whatever Peter's going to do," Spence said.

Kinder told the American Spectator in late September that he would have an announcement "in four to eight weeks," a time line that means a decision would be made sometime this month.

Mississippi Initiative 26, which would amend the state constitution to expand the definition of the word "person" to the moment of fertilization, goes to a vote today. While it has the support of both gubernatorial nominees, Republican Lt. Gov Phil Bryant's pitch is notably urgent. The Tupelo Daily Journal:

Bryant said Monday that "Satan wins" if voters reject Initiative 26 that defines personhood at fertilization.

"This is a battle of good and evil of Biblical proportions," the Republican gubernatorial nominee told a pro-26 rally attended by about 30 supporters at Tupelo City Hall.

Bryant is heavily favored to win the governor's race, which explains why he had to the time on his final day on the trail to stump for Initiative 26. If the measure passes, it will set off a much larger national debate over abortion; social conservatives see the measure as the vehicle they can use to take a Roe v. Wade challenge to the Supreme Court.

Herman Cain went on "Jimmy Kimmel Live!" on Monday, following the nationally televised press conference in which his fourth sexual harassment accuser spoke out. Kimmel asked Cain about getting on the "Cain train," how he feels about attorney Gloria Allred and the new Godfather's pizza with taco toppings.

Don't miss today's Must See Moment at 1:38 where David Letterman uncovers an allegation of sexual misconduct against another GOP candidate:

Take our late-night poll after the jump...

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Heidi Heitkamp enters the North Dakota Senate race, Nunes won't challenge Feinstein, and all incumbents looking safe under Massachusetts' new map. Meanwhile, it's Election Day and we'll preview the races to watch. Here's today's rundown:

7) The newly released Massachusetts redistricting map is prompting Democratic Rep. William Keating to move to Cape Cod and run in the new 9th District, to avoid a primary in against Rep. Stephen Lynch. With his decision, it looks like every member of the state's Congressional delegation is in good shape for re-election.

6) Rep. Devin Nunes's, R-Calif., chief of staff said he is not running for the Senate.

5) The New Hampshire Union Leader reports that New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie will make his first appearance for Mitt Romney on Wednesday in the Granite State.

Not a bad news day for Rep. Shelley Berkley, D-Nev.

Former President Bill Clinton is going to headline a fundraiser for the Senate candidate in January. That will help Berkley put more distance between herself and Republican Sen. Dean Heller. Berkley outraised Heller last quarter as well.

Meanwhile, Nevada political guru Jon Ralston called Heller out on Sunday for dodging a Latin Chamber of Commerce meeting. "If this is how Heller is going to campaign, he's in for a long year -- and the unrelenting Democrats were thrilled that he made his Hispanic problems worse and they immediately put up a radio ad (in Spanish, of course)" Ralston wrote.

Voters will head to polls in Oregon's 1st District on Tuesday for the first step in picking a successor to disgraced former Rep. David Wu, D-Ore., who resigned in August after reports he had an unwanted sexual encounter with the teenage daughter of campaign donor.

Both party contests are expected to be runaway affairs, with Democratic state Sen. Suzanne Bonamici and 2010 GOP nominee Rob Cornilles expected to cruise to a general election matchup on January 31, 2012.

Democratic Primary

Oregon Labor Commissioner Brad Avakian entered the race even before there was a special election -- but that hasn't mattered much against Bonamici. Avakian announced his intent to challenge Wu in a Democratic primary last April after less-damaging but still disturbing details emerged about the now-former congressman's mental state, involving several incidents of unpredictable behavior during the run-up to last year's elections, including one where he sent staffers a photo of himself in a Halloween tiger costume.

But while Avakian posted good fundraising numbers while his target was still Wu, once the embattled congressman finally stepped down and other challengers got in the race, Avakian's fundraising slowed. Bonamici had been eyeing the contest for some time as well, and she joined the race shortly after Wu stepped down, along with state Rep. Brad Witt, to round out the top tier of candidates on a ballot that will actually feature eight total candidates.

Several polls, both internal and public, have shown Bonamici with a commanding lead. A recent Portland Oregonian/KGW-TV survey gave her a 34-point lead, taking 45 percent to Avakian's 11 percent. Internal polling from EMILY's List and Bonamici's campaign showed her ahead by similar wide margins.

Crucial to Bonamici's ability to vault to the top of the pack: she was up early and often on television, spending over $250,000 on TV, buoyed by $200,000 of her own money. And while Avakian racked up the majority of the labor endorsements, Bonamici's enjoyed strong support from EMILY's List. Avakian's worked to paint himself as the more progressive of the two, railing against the tea party in his only television ad, a small $50,000 buy. Avakian's also been beset by problematic stories about his own personal finances.

To get a good sense of where the Kentucky governor's race stands headed into Tuesday's election, take a look at state Senate President David Williams's stretch run media campaign, in which the Republican nominee's final two television spots featured Williams's wife and his running-mate, respectively, while a web ad went after Democratic Gov. Steve Beshear's running-mate.

It's no coincidence. Beshear is in a commanding position in the polls, and Williams's own fav/unfav numbers are upside down, preventing his campaign from featuring him prominently on TV. According to the most recent cn|2 poll conducted Oct. 17-19 by Braun Research, Beshear led Williams 54 percent to 26 percent. While Beshear sported an impressive 69/25 percent fav/unfav split in the survey, Williams's fav/unfav split was an underwhelming 34/44 percent.

What was once viewed as a potential pickup opportunity for Republicans in a red state has become a near certain Democratic hold, in which the only major thing in doubt on Tuesday is the margin of Beshear's victory.

The problems for the Williams-Farmer ticket began during the primary, when a string of negative headlines plagued the campaign. Williams was hit with cries of hypocrisy for amassing five-figure gambling losses despite opposing expanded gambling in the state, while running-mate Richie Farmer had his own problems with stories about staying in a taxpayer financed hotel just 56 miles from his house during the state fair.

Beshear's popularity has meant that he has also enjoyed strong fundraising. He brought in over $10 million for his campaign and outpaced Williams by a roughly 4-to-1 margin.

For Montana Republican Jim O'Hara, all signs point to a successful gubernatorial bid. That is, at least, after he's finished painting them.

The Missoulian takes a closer look at the one of the many GOP candidates looking to replace term-limited Democratic Gov. Brian Schweitzer. Known as the "billboard guy" on the campaign trail, O'Hara is battling low name recognition in a crowded field by painting billboards of each county's courthouse in Montana. So far, O'Hara has painted a billboard a total of 70 billboards.

The Chouteau County commissioner acknowledges his strategy has limitations. "I'm not Charlie Russell, but I have painted every county courthouse in billboard size," he recently said.

O'Hara is taking a creative approach, but he may want to consider the cost effectiveness of the strategy he is using: He's raised $20,000 so far, but he estimates the costs of supplies and labor for the signs at almost $100,000.

The GOP field in the race for retiring Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison's, R-Texas, seat is shrinking, as railroad commissioner Elizabeth Ames Jones is abandoning her bid in favor of a state Senate run.

The Houston Chronicle reports that Ames Jones plans to leave the race and run against Republican Sen. Jeff Wentworth.

Ames Jones wasn't getting any traction in the Senate race and had only about $300,000 in her campaign account at the end of the third quarter.

Aside from gadfly candidates, her departure leaves only the three major GOP candidates in the race: frontrunning Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, former state Solicitor General Ted Cruz and former Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert.

As party leaders wait to see whether former Surgeon General Richard Carmona will make a Democratic Senate bid in Arizona, former state Democratic Party Chairman Don Bivens is working to coalesce support from the state's Democratic establishment.

Today he announced that he's secured the backing of former Arizona Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick.

"I've known Don for years and I know he's the right candidate for the U.S. Senate because he's spent his career working with successful entrepreneurs and small businesses, helping people come together to solve problems," Kirkpatrick writes in an email obtained by Hotline On Call that will be released Monday afternoon.

Kirkpatrick is running for her old seat in Arizona's 1st District, and could face a rematch against Republican Rep. Paul Gosar, if he decides to run there in 2012.

Some Democrats including President Obama have been working to recruit Carmona, but he has yet to commit one way or the other. Kirkpatrick's not the first former member of the state's congressional delegation to back Bivens: He has also been endorsed by former Rep. Harry Mitchell.

Washington state voters will decide whether they'd like to see liquor sales privatized and state liquor stores shuttered when they vote on Initiative 1183. The measure has also become an issue in the governor's race, splitting the two frontrunners.

Republican Attorney General Rob McKenna came out for the measure on Friday, saying "the state does not need to be in the business of hard liquor sales."

Opponents have sought to highlight social problems in other states caused by privatized sales, but McKenna told the Seattle Post-Intelligencer that he couldn't find the problems being underscored by the opposition.

Democratic Rep. Jay Inslee is against passage of I-1183, saying he can't back an expansion of liquor availability and citing the threat of drunk drivers.

Passage of I-1183 -- known more commonly as "the Costco Initiative," due to the amount of money the company has spent pushing to pass the measure, hoping to sell liquor if/when the measure is approved -- led 50.3 percent to 42.8 percent in a recent Washington Poll.

As Reid Wilson pointed out (subscriber) last month, the initiative has prompted a unique political role reversal, with Costco, whose head is a big Democratic donor, hiring a GOP consulting firm and the liquor lobby casting Costco as an evil corporation.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Cain and Gingrich play nice at a weekend debate, DeMint says he's unlikely to endorse in the presidential race, the Kentucky attorney general's race is attracting some national names, and Romney sits atop The Hotline's latest Presidential Power Rankings. Here's today's rundown:

10) Don't miss our preview of the five things to watch on Election Day.

9) There is also a recall election in Arizona, where Republican state Senate President Russell Pearce, a major player in the drafting of the state's controversial immigration legislation, is trying to hold onto his job against fellow Republican Jerry Lewis.

8) The National Republican Congressional Committee is launching Code Red Ink, which will track for the next two weeks where Democrats stand on the Balanced Budget Amendment.

7) Jon Huntsman and Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour urged Herman Cain to be more forthcoming in responding to sexual harassment accusations.

6) Meanwhile, Saturday's Cain-Newt Gingrich debate "felt more like a conservative love-in, with each candidate going out of his way to compliment the other and shower praise on the audience," the New York Times reports.

5) Sarah Palin and Howard Dean are wading into Kentucky in the closing days of the campaign ... but it's not the governor's race they are after. Dean sent out a fundraising email for Democratic Attorney General Jack Conway while Republican challenger Todd P'Pool's got some robo-call help from Palin. Conway is the favorite on Tuesday.

"Rick Perry" made an appearance on "Saturday Night Live" where Seth Meyers grilled the Republican presidential candidate to find the truth behind his curious campaign appearance in New Hampshire late last month.

When Meyers asked if he was drunk, "Perry" offered another explanation. "Before the speech, Herman Cain shows up with a Godfather's pizza," he said. "It wasn't until after I ate it that I realized the pepperonis were Ambiens and the tomato sauce was beer."

Don't miss today's Must See Moment at 0:55 where Jay Leno uncovers archived footage from Cain's time as CEO of Godfather's pizza:

Take our late-night poll after the jump...

Election Day 2012 is less than a year away, but in 2011, it's just a day away.

For clues on what to expect in 2012, look to this year's elections, in which labor and the Republican party face off once again, important ballot issues go to voters and two more states will elect governors. Here are the five key things to watch once the polls close on Tuesday night:

Will Republicans take control of the Virginia Senate?

As Dan Roem wrote last week, Republicans have numerous pathways to a majority and are thus favored to take control of the upper chamber. And whether they do could speak volumes about the presidential and Senate races in the commonwealth in 2012. Since 2003, the off-year elections have proven to be worthy predictors of what happens at the federal level the following year. Count on the president's reelection campaign to keep a close eye on these contests on Tuesday.

What will happen to SB 5 in Ohio?

Over the summer in Wisconsin, a series of state Senate recall elections were triggered in response to a controversial measure signed by the state's Republican governor to limit collective bargaining for public employees. Democrats picked up two seats, but fell one win short of seizing back control of the state Senate, leaving many liberal activists disappointed following a campaign in which millions of dollars were spent by labor and other allies.

On Tuesday, a similar battle will reach its conclusion in Ohio, as voters will head to the polls to weigh in on Issue 2 and decide whether or not to repeal SB 5, a measure that curbs collective bargaining for public employees. As in Wisconsin, millions of dollars have been spent by both sides. The most recent Quinnipiac University poll showed 57 percent of voters said they think the law should be repealed, while 32 percent said it should be kept.

Aside from the impact on labor, there is also an electoral political effect to consider. The standing of Gov. John Kasich, whose approval ratings have been lousy, will be affected. Kasich signed the measure and vouched for it; a repeal would be seen as a clear rebuke of a key part of his agenda. Then there is the Senate race, where likely GOP nominee Josh Mandel has come out in favor of SB 5. The decision could reverberate even in the presidential race in the Buckeye State: Mitt Romney's navigation of the issue last month during a visit to Ohio made national headlines.

The other ballot initiatives

While SB 5 has gotten the most attention, measures on the ballot in Mississippi and Washington state could both have far reaching consequences.

In Mississippi, a measure defining "personhood" as beginning at the moment of fertilization is expected to pass easily, with both gubernatorial candidates and Gov. Haley Barbour backing it. The measure - which would, among other things, ban abortion and make certain types of birth control illegal - would face court challenges and could end up in the Supreme Court.

What we at The Hotline learned this week:

--Businessman Herman Cain put on a clinic on how not to handle a public relations disaster this week. Cain didn't have much of a chance to win the Republican nomination to begin with; his confusing, tortured, ever-evolving explanations over a decade-old sexual harassment charge is only going to speed his descent to the bottom. A post-scandal ABC News/Washington Post poll doesn't show his popularity cratering yet, but keep an eye on how seriously Cain is taken in the next few debates.

Expect more details on the women involved in the scandal, more from the National Restaurant Association, and more from Cain himself as he twists in the wind. If the revelations hadn't come out at all, it's likely Cain's stock would have fallen thanks to flip-flops on abortion and foreign policy flubs.

-- While Texas Gov. Rick Perry might have benefited this week from Cain dominating the news, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney comes out the real winner. Cain isn't backing down on Perry's involvement in the scandal, forcing Perry to respond to the allegations. Meanwhile, Romney stayed above the fray while rolling out his spending policy proposal.

-- After months of debate inside the Romney camp over whether to compete in Iowa, it seems the decision has been made: Romney will play in Iowa, and he will play to win.

The most recent evidence: Romney will hold campaign events Monday in Iowa, his second trip in three weeks after visiting the state only twice in the previous 12 months; His son Josh and wife Ann have quietly canvassed the state in recent weeks, and both have campaigned vigorously there for the Republican candidate in a crucial state Senate race; and Romney just launched aggressive robocalls in Iowa attacking Perry over his immigration policies, throwing the first punch in what could be a heavyweight Hawkeye State bout.

Last weekend, a storm knocked out reception for many in the northeast. who were not able to watch the Sunday shows. This weekend, the skies look clear as the Sunday shows react to a tumultuous week for Republican presidential candidate Herman Cain and the approaching deadline for the congressional super committee.

On NBC's Meet the Press, host David Gregory will continue his "Meet the Candidates" series with former ambassador and former Utah Republican Gov. Jon Huntsman. Later in the show, former New Mexico Democratic Gov. Bill Richardson and Mississippi Republican Gov. Haley Barbour will analyze 2012, Cain's week, and President Obama's reelection chances. On Face the Nation, Bob Schieffer will hold court with a panel of Republican strategists and CBS political analyst John Dickerson for the latest on the battle for the GOP nomination.

On Fox News Sunday, host Chris Wallace will sit down with Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas. Reps. Heath Shuler, D-N.C., and Mike Simpson, R-Idaho, will speak to Wallace about their bipartisan "go big" recommendations for the super committee. And as Democrats and Republicans wrestle with decisions facing the super committee, House Speaker John Boehner will be on ABC's This Week to give the latest on the negotiations.

Former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice will also be on ABC's This Week as she continues her book tour and reflects on her career and current developments in the world.

On Saturday, Fox News and Fox Business will present a live edition of The Cost of Freedom called "Euro-no! Here We Go Again" with Neil Cavuto. He'll interview political and business leaders to see how Greece's crisis will affect the United States.

Get the full listings after the jump.

Republicans are likely to reclaim control of the Virginia state Senate when voters go to the polls next Tuesday. The final tally is worth watching as a predictor, as in recent years the outcome of the off-year elections have been harbingers of the following year's federal races in the commonwealth.

In 2012, Virginia will play host to what promises to be one of the most competitive Senate races and a presidential election in which both parties will be competing feverishly, following President Obama's victory in 2008, which was the first such win for a Democratic presidential nominee since 1964.

For hints about 2012, 2011 should be watched closely. Consider that in 2003, Republicans won 24 out of 40 state Senate seats, and the next year, George W. Bush carried the commonwealth as did eight out of 11 GOP House candidates. In 2005, Democrat Tim Kaine won the highly-contested governor's race, which was followed a year later by Sen. Jim Webb's razor-thin win over Republican George Allen.

In 2007, Democrats flipped control of the state Senate while picking up seats in the state House of Delegates as well. That was something of a prelude to 2008, when Obama carried Virginia en route to winning the presidency. Down the ballot, Democrat Mark Warner won the Senate race. Democrats also picked up three House seats.

Republican Gov. Bob McDonnell's 2009 victory coupled with the party's down ballot success that year came a year ahead of the GOP picking up three Congressional seats the following year.

To retain control of the state Senate in 2011, Democrats can only afford to lose one of the 22 districts they now control in the 40-seat chamber: Republican Lieutenant Gov. Bill Bolling would give Republicans an edge in a 20-20 Senate.

But the game is being played on the Democrats' field following redistricting, which eliminated two GOP state Senate seats down state and created open seats outside of Richmond and in Northern Virginia. That means the Republicans start down 22-16 instead of 22-18.

"I don't know that there are any Republicans that are seriously contested this year of the 16," said Democratic state Sen. George Barker, who engineered the new map, during an August interview.

The biggest problem for Democrats is that they failed to generate candidates in 12 GOP-controlled districts. Republicans failed candidates in only four districts, overall.

After the jump, check out the specific races to watch when the returns come in on Thursday evening. Polls will be open from 6 a.m. to 7 p.m. on Tuesday, and we'll have results right here on Hotline On Call.

When Mississippi voters head to the polls Tuesday to elect a new governor, they will participate in an election that is equal parts historic and uneventful.

Hattiesburg Mayor Johnny DuPree, the Democratic nominee, is the first black major party nominee for statewide office in the history of the state with the highest percentage of black residents in the nation. But handicappers give DuPree virtually no chance of winning the race, eliminating any election night suspense.

The expected victory for Lt. Gov Phil Bryant won't surprise anyone, but it will be a historic feat in its own right. If Bryant succeeds Gov. Haley Barbour as the state's chief executive, it will mark the first time since the 19th century that the GOP has won three straight gubernatorial contests.

A big win for Bryant will serve as the latest example of the erosion of the Mississippi Democratic Party, which once dominated state politics. The party failed to even nominate a candidate for three of the eight statewide offices this year -- lieutenant governor, secretary of state and state auditor. The party's demise is part of a larger trend across the South, and it paints an ugly picture for the party's future in Mississippi.

Bryant, who was elected to the state's number two post in 2007 after serving as state auditor for 12 years, was the favorite in the race from the beginning. He faced minimal competition in the GOP primary, with his toughest challenge coming from a wealthy but unknown businessman, Dave Dennis. Despite facing four other candidates in the primary, Bryant won almost 60 percent of the vote, avoiding a runoff.

Bryant began the general election campaign with a huge advantage because of his edge in name recognition, thanks to his 16 years as a statewide elected official. His initial advantage was augmented by a huge fundraising disparity. According to the most recent financial disclosures, Bryant has spent $5.6 million for the year, while DuPree has spent less than $750,000.

DuPree's campaign was unable to narrow the gap significantly. The two candidates seemingly agree on most issues. And DuPree has refused to go negative against the frontrunner, just as he did in the primary and his previous runs for mayor of Hattiesburg. While admirable, this strategy has made it difficult for the Democrat to draw stark contrasts with his GOP opponent.

Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Steve Israel's advice for the party's recruits next year: "Run like mayors."

House Democratic leaders have put renewed emphasis on recruiting nontraditional candidates, like doctors, police chiefs and military veterans. They've avoided going after candidates who've spent most of their career in politics.

Israel also said that their candidates' ability to localize elections and run as problem-solvers against unpopular incumbents would be key to regaining their House majority - even as they themselves must contend with an increasingly unpopular president at the top of the ticket. The comments echo what Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee executive director Guy Cecil said at a briefing yesterday.

"If I were the House Republicans, I think I'd be more worried about the House Republicans' numbers than the presidents' numbers," said Israel. "Look, the presidents' numbers need to improve, but House Republican numbers are toxic, radioactive."

Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Steve Israel told reporters Friday that Arizona voters should consider impeaching Gov. Jan Brewer after she engineered the impeachment of the state's independent redistricting commission chairman.

The redistricting committee's proposed map would have given Democrats an opportunity - if everything went their way - to win as many as five of the state's nine House districts in next year's elections. It also would have forced at least one primary pitting two Republican congressmen against each other. Republicans currently control five of the state's eight House seats.

But with the map going back to the drawing board, Republicans anticipate a more favorable scenario.

"I think the people of Arizona should consider impeaching Jan Brewer for what she did," Israel said. "We will push every button. We will use every strategy. We will appeal to any fair court to redress this trampling of a fair and independent process."

Israel said the redistricting situation in Arizona especially bothered him, since much of his family lives there. At the briefing, he pointed to an editorial from the Arizona Republic that slammed Brewer's decision.

Israel also weighed in on a redistricting conflict in Ohio, where Republicans have been trying to pass a map that would give them an lopsided 12-4 advantage in the delegation. Democrats have announced a petition drive to overturn the current GOP proposal, and Republicans have failed to muster enough Democratic support to win a referendum-proof two-thirds majority. If the map is overturned, the status of the Congressional elections would be in flux.

"The Republicans have stepped all over themselves in Ohio and we fully support a referendum to give the people of Ohio input into the congressional lines," said Israel. "We will be meeting with members of the Ohio delegation today to talk about what that support means."

Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer explains her long fight over Arizona's controversial immigration law in her new memoir, "Scorpions for Breakfast: My Fight Against Special Interests, Liberal Media and Cynical Politicos to Secure America's Border," which was released on Tuesday. Coming in at 228 pages, the book is hardly longer than its title, but in that space Brewer takes on the Obama administration and the mainstream media, describes her reaction to the horrific shooting in Tucson on January 8, in which her friend, Democratic Rep. Gabrielle Giffords was critically injured, all while making discussing immigration and border security.

The book is full of references to another female governor, down to Brewer's hairstyle on the book cover right next to a sticker, reading: "Foreword by Governor Sarah Palin." Brewer writes: "I am not the first governor to find herself in a no-holds-barred, take-no-prisoners battle with Washington and the liberal media. But in Arizona, our fight is different, and all the more frustrating for it." Yes, just as Palin had her Alaska, Brewer emphasizes the values of her home state, writing of her opinion on border security: "(It is) simple and direct. Kind of like me. Kind of like Arizona."

The Hotline relied on the time-honored practice of using the "excerpt lottery," in which page numbers are chosen based upon recent winning lottery numbers from various states. Also check out our recent review of Levi Johnston's book, using the same method. The results:

"The best comparison I could think of was: This must be what it's like to be waterboarded. ... Advice, objections, encouragement, discouragement, fan letters and death threats were coming at me so fast I could barely breathe. ... Manning the buckets were the national media, the unions, civil rights groups, business groups and political operatives all the way up to the president himself. Was it torture? I never did ask Dick Cheney, but I'll tell you this: It was not an experience I want to repeat" -- p. 003 (N.Y.'s "Midday New York Numbers," 10/17).

"I was temporarily (and uncharacteristically!) speechless" - p. 080 (Ill.'s "Midday 3," 11/2).

"A strange cast of characters -- everyone from the Reverend Al Sharpton to Hollywood actress Eva Longoria to former California governor Arnold Schwarzenegger to AFL-CIO president Richard Trumka -- was invited, but not one sitting governor and not one current member of Congress. I told the press that I considered it a 'snub' that I wasn't invited. Not that I was so eager to return to the Obama White House and be lectured again -- been there, done that" - p. 213 (Minn.'s "Daily 3," 11/1).

"(The Secret Service confiscated) our cell phones and cameras. Too bad we weren't illegal aliens, or we could have sued them" - p. 162 (Mo.'s "Midday Pick 3," 11/2).

"Then I thought - being Pollyanna again -- that I would try to address their concerns" - p. 120 (N.J.'s "Midday Pick 3," 11/2).

"This guy had clearly seen too many movies in which menacing Gestapo agents demanded to see a terrified refugee's papers" - p. 147 (Mo.'s "Pick 3 Midday," 10/23).

"Standing on the podium on election night before a crowd of boisterous supporters, I knew this wasn't about me. It was about America. At first I decided to have a little fun with it."
"'Tonight we foreclosed on a house -- the one that used to be run by Nancy Pelosi!'"
"The crowd erupted in cheers."
"Then I got serious."
"'Here in Arizona, we have not forgotten what our state and our nation are made of,' I said, my voice almost breaking with the emotion I felt'" - p. 13 (Puerto Rico's "Pega 2," 11/1).

Mississippi Republican Lt. Gov. Phil Bryant wants to win the governor's race on Tuesday. That, and spoil the evening of another politician, whose likely level of interest in the race was overstated a tad by the Republican frontrunner on Thursday. The AP:

Bryant told supporters he imagines President Obama and wife, Michelle, watching election returns on TV Tuesday night and hoping Democrats can win the governorship in Barbour's home state. "We just need to ruin their evening," Bryant said.

Bryant, the overwhelming favorite in the race, received some help on Thursday from Gov. Haley Barbour and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie.

Former Pennsylvania GOP gubernatorial candidate Sam Rohrer on Friday strongly indicated he would run for the Senate, a move that would add a conservative favorite to an already large field of Republican candidates seeking party's nomination.

In an email to supporters obtained by the Hotline On Call, Rohrer, a former state lawmaker, announced he would step down from his position as the Pennsylvania state director of the conservative group Americans for Prosperity. The move precipitates a decision later this month, he said, that would "outline my next step in promoting constitutional principles and courageous leadership."

"It's a road -- like others we've traveled before- that will be difficult and with an uncertain destination," Rohrer said. "Living in this critical time in our nation's history, I am convinced that we as Americans must rediscover that truth is the bedrock of freedom and that now is the time to rebuild that foundation together."

The ex-state representative from outside of Reading, Pa., has previously indicated he was considering a run to unseat Democratic Sen. Bob Casey. But Friday's email is the strongest sign yet will form a campaign.

Rohrer would enter the Republican primary as an underdog, but he has a strong following among activists after running in 2010 as the conservative alternative to now-Gov. Tom Corbett. He won only 31 percent of the vote then, but built a network of support among grassroots conservatives drawn to a message that emphasized state's rights and social conservative values. He openly shunned the party's political establishment, which unanimously backed Corbett, and drew support from the state's tea party adherents.

The Democratic members of Congress surveyed for this week's National Journal Congressional Insiders Poll weren't exactly overflowing with praise for their leaders. Asked to grade the performances of House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, Democratic Congressional Insiders gave them an average of a B- and a C+ respectively, not much higher than they graded the leaders from the Republican Party. Republican Insiders, however, were more polarized, giving significantly higher marks to House Speaker John Boehner and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell than they did to their Democratic counterparts.

Super PACS -- the independent groups that can raise and spend unlimited amounts of money on political advertisements -- are showing up on both sides of the partisan divide, but Republican and Democratic members of Congress are predicting their impact in starkly differing ways. In this week's National Journal Congressional Insiders Poll, the Democratic members surveyed unanimously agreed that super PACs will give candidates a smaller voice in their own campaigns, while Republicans took a more sanguine view.

Jimmy Kimmel came to the defense of Republican presidential candidate Herman Cain on Thursday, suggesting that our country could be better off with a "horny" president.

"Remember what it was like with Clinton in charge?" Kimmel joked. "We had jobs, the economy was booming. At the airport you didn't have to take off your shoes."

Don't miss today's Must See Moment at 1:06 where Jay Leno points out how Rick Perry has transformed himself in an attempt to appeal to younger voters. Watch:

Take our late-night poll after the jump...

The unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked down to 9.0 percent. The U.S. gained just 80,000 new jobs in October, less than economists expected, but the number of jobs added in previous months were both revised up in October's jobs report released on Friday.

Another positive from the report was a slight boost in average hourly earnings by 0.2 percent, the Labor Department reported. The number of jobs added in August and September were up to 104,000 and 158,000, respectively.

Read the complete story on NationalJournal.com.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. The first live caller public survey taken since the Cain controversy erupted shows the former Godfather's Pizza CEO staying atop the field with Romney , Kucinich won't be happy about the latest GOP map proposal in Ohio and Johnny Dupree gets a hand from Bill Cosby. Here's today's rundown:

8) Someone needs a Cleveland sports history refresher course: With the fate of SB 5 -- the Ohio law that curbs collective bargaining rights for public employees -- in the hands of voters next Tuesday, and public polls showing voters supporting repeal, Ohio Republican Gov. John Kasich embarked this week on a barnstorming tour to vouch for the measure. "We never thought (former Cleveland Browns quarterback) Bernie Kosar would bring the Browns back and win that big championship game," Kasich said.

But as the Columbus Dispatch points out, Kasich is Steelers fan who grew up in suburban Pittsburgh, and apparently didn't know that Kosar never won a championship game with the Browns. Oops.

7) Mississippi Democratic gubernatorial nominee Johnny Dupree is getting some celebrity help: Bill Cosby is endorsing him.

6) Jenny Sanford has some positive things to say about Herman Cain in a Columbia State op-ed.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is launching radio ads in 25 GOP-held districts on Monday, November 7, hoping to capitalize on what they say is buyer's remorse one year out from the 2012 House elections.

The ads are part of the DCCC's "Drive to 25" campaign in the Democrats' campaign to win back control of the House, and will also include phone banks, web advertising, and live and automated calls.

While several of the radio ads target Republicans over tax loopholes for oil companies and votes for Social Security and Medicare, others are geared toward some facing investigations and scandals. The ad against Rep. Vern Buchanan, R-Fla., brings up federal investigations into his former car dealership, and the radio spot against freshman Rep. David Rivera, R-Fla., talks about the looming criminal investigation into his personal and campaign spending. An ad against freshman Rep. Reid Ribble, R-Wis., says his "company was fined three times for being unsafe."

"With one year to go until the election, the House Republicans' Majority is in peril as it gets freezing cold back at home and Republicans face a chilly response to defending the indefensible," said DCCC Chairman Steve Israel. "House Republicans will be forced to defend protecting Big Oil and the ultra wealthy instead of protecting Medicare and creating jobs and defend their big ethics scandals too."

In addition to Buchanan, Rivera and Ribble, the ads also target Rep. Rick Crawford, R-Ark., Rep. Dan Lungren, R-Calif., Rep. Jeff Denham, R-Calif., Rep. Elton Gallegly, R-Calif., Rep. Mary Bono Mack, R-Calif., Rep. Scott Tipton, R-Colo., Rep. Daniel Webster, R-Fla., Rep. Steve King, R-Iowa, Rep. Tim Johnson, R-Ill, Rep. Bobby Schilling, R-Ill., Rep. Larry Bucshon, R-Ind., Rep. Roscoe Bartlett R-Md., Rep. Dan Benishek, R-Mich., Rep. Charlie Bass, R-N.H., Rep. Joe Heck, R-Nev., Rep. Ann Marie Buerkle, R-N.Y., Rep. Lou Barletta, R-Pa., Rep. Charlie Dent, R-Pa., Rep. Kristi Noem, R-S.D., Rep. Quico Canseco, Rep. Sean Duffy, R-Wis., and Rep. David McKinley, R-W.Va.

Ohio Republicans efforts to pass a new Congressional map and avoid a looming Democratic referendum on their first plan failed to get enough support to even make it to the state House floor on Thursday.

The GOP fell eight votes short of passing an emergency measure, meaning that the map will now be sent to committee, possibly sending legislative leaders back into negotiations over districts, the Columbus Dispatch reports.

Republicans were trying to convince enough African-American Democrats to vote with them to hit the 66 votes they needed to pass the new map to avert a ballot referendum on a map passed earlier this year. In September, a map spearheaded by Republicans passed, giving the GOP majorities in 12 of the state's 16 districts. Ohio will shed two of its 18 districts following redistricting.

But judging by this observation in the Dispatch piece, it doesn't sound like the negotiation process is going so swimmingly:

However, after the vote, some House Democrats and Republicans got into a heated exchanged that may not bode well for future negotiations. Rep. Lynn Wachtmann, R-Napoleon, at one point accused Budish of spreading lies, and later Rep. Robert F. Hagan, D-Youngstown, shouted at Republicans, some of whom walked out of Budish's speech, and others who tried to object to Hagan's comments.

The proposed bill would have also moved both the congressional and presidential primaries to a single day in March.

Kentucky Senate President David Williams does not appear to have heeded the lessons of Aqua Buddha.

The Republican, badly lagging behind Democratic Gov. Steve Beshear in the gubernatorial race's latest polling, attacked the incumbent on Tuesday for participating in a Hindu style ground-blessing ceremony for an India-based company building a factory in Elizabethtown.

"He's there participating with Hindu priests, participating in a religious ceremony," Williams said during a campaign stop. "He's sitting down there with his legs crossed, participating in Hindu prayers with a dot on his forehead with incense burning around him. I don't know what the man was thinking."

A religion-based attack is often perceived as desperate -- a Hail Mary a losing candidate throws as a last-ditch effort to catch up in the race. And, as I wrote when Kentucky Attorney General Jack Conway released his "Aqua Buddha" ad during last year's Senate contest with now-Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., such moves are frequently flops that end up hurting, rather than helping, the attacker.

The narrator in the Aqua Buddha ad asks "Why was Rand Paul a member of a secret society that called the Holy Bible 'a hoax,' that was banned for mocking Christianity and Christ? Why did Rand Paul once tie a woman up, tell her to bow down before a false idol, and say his God was 'Aqua Buddha'?"

Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee executive director Guy Cecil believes the 2012 Senate races will be choice elections, or "micro-elections" as opposed to referenda on the national political climate, he told reporters at the centrist think tank Third Way on Thursday.

"2006, 2008, 2010 -- by every estimation, were nationalized elections, they were macro-elections. I think more than anything else, this election has the capacity to be a micro-election -- an election that really affects every state differently," Cecil said.

It's an argument Democrats often used last cycle, when they controlled both chambers of Congress and the White House before losing control of the House, as well as half a dozen Senate seats on Election Day. It's also a sign of the drag President Obama threatens to bring to the ticket, especially in the key swing states where control of the upper chamber will be won and lost, including Missouri, Montana, and Nebraska, among others.

In fact, the argument Cecil is making sounds strikingly familiar to the one Karl Rove was shopping around right before the 2006 midterm elections in which Democrats swept into power and seized back the majority in both chambers of Congress.

"I see several things; first, unlike the general public, I'm allowed to see the polls on the individual races and after all this does come down to individual contests between individual candidates," Rove told NPR in late October of 2006, later adding, "I think what you need to do is make it a choice between two candidates. So that you have a choice between Candidate A and candidate B. And on the big issues Candidate A represents the values of his or her district or state and Candidate B doesn't."

And we know how that story ended.

It's not that Democrats don't have a point. They do, to an extent. As we've noted on this blog numerous times, candidates certainly matter. Cecil pointed to some races where candidates have been moving perpetually to the right in GOP primaries and others in which the GOP frontrunners have already offered up gaffes.

"There is no difference in Sharron Angle's point of view of the world or Christine O'Donnell, or Ken Buck's view of the world and many of the candidates that are running," Cecil argued.

But it's not quite that bad for Republicans. And it's impossible to overlook -- especially in a presidential year in which control of the White House could be very much up in the air -- the influence of the national climate on many of the Democratic incumbents who voted with, appeared with or have otherwise supported the president.

After the jump, check out the other notable tidbits from Cecil's appearance at Third Way.

The primary battle between Reps. Joe Walsh, R-Ill., and Randy Hultgren, R-Ill., has gotten personal.

Walsh, who is the midst of a child-support battle with his ex-wife, took a recent poll a little close to heart when he found out that some of the questions surrounded his current legal troubles, according to the Arlington Heights Daily Herald. Redistricting will force the two GOP freshmen to face-off against each other in the new 14th District.

The poll was conducted by the GOP firm The Tarrance Group for Hultgren's campaign, asking the district's residents about Walsh's legal and financial woes, among other issues. Walsh slammed it as a "push poll" and lashed out at Hultgren with a physical threat--sort of.

"If he raises his voice and calls into question who I am as a father, I'll punch him in the face, figuratively speaking," Walsh told the Daily Herald.

Hultrgen's campaign isn't releasing the full poll. Walsh's pretrial conference for the alleged $117,437 in late child support payments is scheduled to start next Tuesday.

House Race Hotline Editor Jessica Taylor included the Walsh/Hultgren showdown on her list of the top nastiest member-member primaries last month.

Democratic Senate candidates should embrace the issues spurring the Occupy Wall Street movement, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee's executive director said on Thursday.

"This frustration exists far beyond just the folks that come out into Freedom Plaza for the Occupy Wall Street movement," said DSCC executive director Guy Cecil at a meeting with reporters at the centrist think tank Third Way. "So I do think that our candidates will talk about the income disparity, talk about the level playing field."

"Part of the reason I think the Occupy Wall Street movement is popular is because there is a general frustration at the growing income disparity in our country," Cecil added.

But at the same time Cecil was speaking, the centrist group tweeted out results from the just-released Quinnipiac poll suggesting the Occupy Wall Street movement was losing public support.

In Massachusetts, Occupy Wall Street has become bigger issue in the Senate race than in other places, as Democratic frontrunner Elizabeth Warren has embraced the movement, while the state Republican Party has pushed back, releasing "incident reports" of negative news related to the protests, which have spread across the country.

Warren's populist tone has struck a major chord among Democrats, especially those on the left; and she's enjoyed an early overall momentum boost in both the polls and fundraising.

"Even I did not think that the race in Massachusetts, in terms of the head to head between Scott Brown and Elizabeth Warren would close as quickly as it did. ... I think that's reflective of the frustration people feel and it's why Elizabeth in particular is the right candidate at the right time," Cecil said.

Jimmy Kimmel told his audience Wednesday that the accusations against Herman Cain are helping presidential candidate Mitt Romney to be himself.

"The truth is, I'm a pro-choice moderate from Massachusetts," the faux-Romney said in a mock campaign ad. "And I know global warming is real. Don't like it? Too bad, because you're going to vote for me anyway."

Don't miss today's Must See Moment at 0:26 when Jay Leno presents footage of President Obama's dinner with donors. Who had to foot the bill? Watch:

Take our late-night poll after the jump...

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Cain accuses a Perry consultant of leaking the story about sexual harassment allegations against him, North Dakota Republicans take a preemptive swipe at Heidi Heitkamp, voters are pessimistic about the supercommittee's ability to get things done and Jeff Greene -- yes, that Jeff Greene -- take to the pages of the Wall Street Journal to declare he's part of the 99%. Here's today's rundown:

8) A Suffolk Univ./WSVN-TV poll released late Wednesday queried Florida voters about allegations that Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., may have embellished details about the circumstances of his family's emigration to the United States from Cuba. After a brief explanation of the situation, 41 percent of Sunshine State voters said they thought Rubio exaggerated his story, while 26 percent said they thought he told the truth. A third of voters were undecided.

7) Who's that defending the Occupy Wall Street movement in a Wall Street Journal op-ed? Jeff Greene, the billionaire 2010 Democratic Senate candidate, who is best-known for his booze-fueled yacht parties during last year's campaign.

6) Anticipating former Democratic Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp's entrance into the Senate race, the North Dakota Republican Party has purchased full-page ads in the Bismarck Tribune & the Forum of Fargo-Moorhead that tie Heitkamp to Obama. Democrats are optimistic about Heitkamp's chances; the ads show that Republicans regard her as a threat, as well.

5) Third time's the charm? Washington state Democrat Darcy Burner sure hopes so. After losing two losing competitive races to Rep. Dave Reichert, R-Wash., in the Evergreen State's 8th District, Burnerwill give it a go in the 1st District, where Democratic Rep. Jay Inslee is leaving to run for governor. Burner was a highly touted national recruit and a favorite of liberals both times she ran against Reichert.

Burner is the latest Democratic candidate to lose running in a swing seat, and is now pursuing a more liberal district to run in. Former Democratic Reps. Mary Jo Kilroy, Dina Titus and Alan Grayson are all pursuing comeback campaigns in safely-Democratic districts.

Nearly two-in-five New York voters aren't sure whether they will vote for or against Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, D-N.Y., in a new Marist College poll released Wednesday night, but, if recent history is any guide, she remains favored for reelection.

According to the poll, conducted for the Time Warner-owned cable news channels NY1 and YNN, 39 percent of Empire State voters say they definitely plan to vote for Gillibrand for reelection, while 22 percent definitely plan to vote against her. Thirty-nine percent of voters say they are undecided, including a third of Democratic voters.

Asked to rate the job Gillibrand is doing in office, 41 percent of voters describe it as "excellent" or "good," while 43 percent say she is doing a "fair" or "poor" job. While those numbers seem low in such a strong Democratic state, some context is in order: The percentage that describes her job performance as "poor" is just 11 percent, meaning that 32 percent say she is doing a "fair" job.

And some history: Just before the 2010 special election -- when she defeated former Rep. Joe DioGuardi, R-N.Y., by a whopping 28 points -- just 36 percent described Gillibrand's job performance as "excellent" or "good," and 48 percent chose "fair" or "poor."

Gillibrand will also have President Obama at the top of the ticket to bolster her candidacy. The poll shows Obama leading former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney by 24 points, and his leads over businessman Herman Cain and Texas Gov. Rick Perry are greater than 30 points.

Rep. Fred Upton, R-Mich., may be facing a familiar foe in next year's GOP primary -- and this time he could have a conservative group that wields significant influence on his side.

Former state Rep. Jack Hoogendyk challenged the 13-term Upton in the 2010 primary, and took 43 percent of the vote, despite being vastly outspent by Upton. Hoogendyk met on Wednesday with the Club for Growth, and the anti-tax group walked away very impressed.

"We're taking a look at the race," Club for Growth spokesman Barney Keller told Hotline On Call. "Hoogendyk had a good record in the Michigan legislature. And Upton has a very long record of voting for bigger government that's just inconsistent with our goals."

In an August interview with Hotline On Call, Club for Growth President Chris Chocola called Upton, now a member of the debt-reduction super committee, his "greatest worry."

There are some folks who we don't think carry the pro-growth agenda," Chocola said then. "He brought us the lightbulb and all that good stuff. He's been around a long time and he has a long record, and it's not necessarily a conservative record."

If Hoogendyk does get in the race, he'd likely need the Club's muscle behind him to battle the powerful Energy and Commerce Committee chairman. Last quarter alone, Upton raised over $400,000 and has nearly $1.5 million in the bank.

While many Ohio Democrats are up in arms over a GOP-drawn congressional map, at least one, Rep. Dennis Kucinich, is a fan -- to the point that he's robocalling to lobby for it. The Cleveland Plain Dealer:

Over the weekend, Kucinich's campaign placed robo-calls that asked voters to urge state legislators including Lakewood's Nickie Antonio and Cleveland's Mike Foley to back a map that would include a congressional district based in western Cuyahoga County, which Kucinich currently represents.

...

Kucinich told Antonio the GOP-drawn plan that Ohio's Democratic Party wants to overturn, which would place him in a district with Toledo's Marcy Kaptur, would be winnable for him.

Antonio said that several constituents who got Kucinich's robo-call contacted her office and suggested she support the GOP redistricting map, which she and Foley both opposed.

In a role reversal, Florida state Senate President Mike Haridopolos endorsed Rep. Connie Mack's, R-Fla., Senate campaign Wednesday, just a few months after Mack endorsed Haridopolos for the same office.

"I was not exactly pleased in the direction in which the senate primary was moving," Haridopolos, told a gathering of reporters and editors at the Associated Press Florida Legislative Planning Session, according to the Palm Beach Post. "I think he'd make an outstanding senator, not just candidate...I want to see us elevate the political discussion. What has disappointed me...is there's a lot of finger-pointing. Let's elevate the debate...as opposed to the negative campaigning that's been done to this point."

Mack has not officially entered the crowded GOP primary, but his political adviser, David James, said last week that Mack will jump into the race "in the weeks ahead."

Haridopolos's endorsement is no surprise. The two are friends and earlier this year, Mack backed the state Senate president. Haridopolos would later abruptly end his bid.

The big question for Mack is whether the Haridopolos endorsement will translate into major dollars. Haridopolos raised a jaw-dropping $2.5 million in the first fundraising quarter of the year. Some have suggested that the huge haul was attributable to special interests looking to curry favor from the state Senate president during the state's legislative session. But Haridopolos has significant ties to the business community, and he still raised more than $900,000 in the second quarter.

It's Ben Nelson or bust in Nebraska.

That may as well be the Democratic slogan, as the Senate bench in the Cornhusker State for the party is very thin. In an interview published Wednesday in the Lincoln Journal Star, Nelson sounded very unsure about whether he will run for reelection. This raises the question of who Democrats would turn to if he decides to retire.

The answer is that there are no clear torch-passing choices for Democrats in the state.

Consider the 2010 elections, when in each of the three congressional districts, all represented by Republicans, none of the Democratic challengers were able to break 40 percent. Only in the 2nd District (which includes Omaha) did the challenger, state Sen. Tom White, approach 40 percent (he received 39 percent of the vote). In the governor's race, the Democratic nominee could not manage 30 percent. Aside from Nelson, Democrats have had no success in statewide races over the past decade and half. In addition to boasting no standouts from past contests, Democrats don't have any clear outsider options, either.

If Nelson doesn't run, it's a blow to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, which has aimed this cycle to encourage incumbents who are retiring to announce such decisions sooner rather than later. National Democrats have also invested considerable resources helping Nelson, spending heavily on early ads in conjunction with the state party.

Sen. Ben Nelson, D-Neb., may not be certain about whether he'll run for re-election, but the Nebraska Democratic Party is sure sinking a lot of money into their hopes that he will.

Nebraska Democrats have spent a total of just under $1.25 million on television ads on Nelson's behalf, including $138,658 in ads running this week and $139,968 running next week, according to a Republican source who keeps track of ad buys.

Much of the money -- the vast majority, in all likelihood -- comes from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, which had transferred at least $865,000 to the state party through the end of September (The Democratic National Committee has chipped in another $76,000).

The Nebraska Democratic Party has then used that cash to run early advertisements, ranging from 300 to about 450 gross ratings points in each of the state's major markets, continuously since September 8. So far, Democrats have run 3,700 points in Omaha, 3,600 in Lincoln, 3,500 in Sioux City and 3,400 in the North Platte market, as well as a smattering of smaller cable buys.

Nelson told the Lincoln Journal Star that he'll make his final decision over the Christmas holiday. If Democrats keep spending $130,000 a week on ads, that's an expensive decision to wait out.

Though Chris Christie is out of the presidential race, David Letterman is still pouncing on every opportunity to poke fun at the New Jersey governor's weight. Watch:

Take our late-night poll after the jump...

Sen. Ben Nelson, D-Neb., is giving Democrats fits. The two-termer is the most vulnerable incumbent up for re-election next year, and he hasn't even committed to running for another term.

In an interview published today with the Lincoln Journal Star, Nelson sure sounds like he's leaning against running. "I'm not trying to drag this out," Nelson said. "There is no theater involved in this."

"It's more that I just don't want to be a candidate any longer than I need to be or (it's more difficult) to do the job I'm elected to do," he added.

Nelson will discuss his next steps with his family in the coming weeks, and he won't make his final decision until the Christmas holiday season, he told the paper.

National Democrats have already funneled more than $800,000 through the state Democratic Party and into early advertisements designed to set Nelson apart from unpopular incumbents in Washington. He said he's polled the race, but that he doesn't have to be certain of victory in order to run.

"I do not have to have assurance I would win," he told the paper. "I'm a risk-taker. That would not be a deciding factor by a wide margin."

Still, an incumbent who says publicly they don't want to be a candidate is cause for any party strategist to bash their head against a wall in frustration. It's worse for Democrats; there's virtually no party bench in Nebraska, and if Nelson decides to retire, he'll effectively hand the seat to the winner of the state Republican primary.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer exerts her clout to block the Arizona redistricting plan, while the Department of Justice clears North Carolina's new maps. New details emerge about the sexual harassment settlement against Herman Cain, and Rick Perry hits the airwaves in New Hampshire. Here's today's rundown:

8) The New York Times highlighted Sen. Claire McCaskill, D-Mo., weight loss on Tuesday (she's dropped 50 pounds). Former Missouri Republican Treasurer Sarah Steelman jibed in response on Twitter: ".@clairecmc congrats on the new diet. Now if you'd only do the same with the federal government."

7) North Dakota Gov. Jack Dalrymple made his gubernatorial campaign official on Tuesday, touting North Dakota as "the envy of the nation" with the country's lowest unemployment rate and rising personal income, the Grand Forks Herald reports. Drew Wrigley, the current lieutenant governor and a rising GOP star in state politics will be Dalrymple's running mate, the governor announced.

6) Texas Gov. Rick Perry is launching his first TV ad in New Hampshire this week, a 30-second spot similar to the one he put recently up in Iowa. The question of whether or not Perry is able to break through in the polls will hinge heavily on the efficacy of the new pro-Perry ad blitz: In addition to being up in Iowa and New Hampshire, a pro-Perry super PAC has bought time in both South Carolina and the Hawkeye State.

5) Politico reports former North Dakota Democratic Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp is telling Democrats she will run for the Senate. If she runs, Heitkamp would be heavily favored to win the Democratic nomination, but Republican Rep. Rick Berg, is the overall favorite in the race.

The GOP-controlled Arizona state Senate voted Tuesday evening to remove the chair of its independent redistricting commission after Republican Gov. Jan Brewer called for her impeachment.

Brewer convened a special session in order to impeach chairwoman Colleen Mathis, alleging that the commission, under her guidance had engaged in "gross misconduct" in producing a map that gave Democrats in the state an opportunity to gain seats in next year's elections. Brewer's motion narrowly got the two-thirds majority required to remove Mathis, with 21 yes votes, 6 no votes, and 3 abstentions.

Democrats denounced the move as an effort to undermine a commission that Arizonans voted to establish 11 years ago to take politics out of the once-a-decade process of redrawing legislative and congressional district lines to conform with new Census figures.

Today's endorsement of former Sen. George Allen, R-Va., by Prince William Board of County Supervisors chairman Corey Stewart is a curious one considering what Stewart has said in the past about Allen.

The GOP chairman of the commonwealth's second-largest county previously weighed a run for Senate earlier this year and scolded Allen in the process, praising his work as a governor --- Allen served in Richmond before Stewart even moved to Virginia -- but calling him a "mediocre" senator and who carries a lot of "baggage" and would be "terrible" for the GOP in 2012.

But that was all in the past today, when Allen said in a statement that Stewart "is a strong, leading conservative voice in Virginia."

It's not the first time Stewart has bashed a fellow Republican candidate only to praise that person in the future. He's done it at least twice this year with state Senate candidates in Prince William County.

In one instance, he was upset that first-time Republican state Senate candidate Tom Gordy didn't contact him prior to announcing his challenge against the dean of the upper chamber, state Sen. Chuck Colgan. Stewart all but dismissed his candidacy, saying, "as far as I'm concerned, I've got nothing to say about that race."

Yet, last month, there was Stewart, standing just a few feet away from state Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli, expressing his full support for Gordy.

The Salt Lake Tribune takes a deeper dive today into the question of whether Utah Republican Gov. Gary Herbert took steps to try to make Democratic Rep. Jim Matheson's district a little friendlier for him. The paper's findings raise more questions about the extent to which Herbert tried to influence the final map.

The Tribune reported that the Republican state House chairman of the Redistricting Committee wondered -- to the point of emailing the governor's office -- whether Herbert would "veto any plan that is short of these expectations" outlined by his staff "since Ally [Isom, the governor's spokeswoman and deputy chief of staff] alluded to it at the end of our meeting."

Matheson has said he will not run against Sen. Orrin Hatch, but has not ruled out other options, among which a gubernatorial run is one. Democrats and Republicans agree that Matheson's new district under the map signed by Herbert last month is more Republican than it used to be.

State Rep. Ken Sumsion, who is the chairman of the Redistricting Committee, told the Tribune that a veto was never overtly threatened, but from "some of the tone of the discussions, I wondered."

Herbert's spokeswoman told the paper the governor never threatened a veto and "is not concerned about Matheson."

Herbert is already a target of tea party and conservative ire. Anything that smacks of political self-preservation is likely to only further inflame animosity on the right and among other opponents.

Former Nevada Democratic Rep. Dina Titus announced today that she'll be running for Congress again but passing up an opportunity to seek a rematch against Rep. Joe Heck, R-Nev.

Instead, Titus will be running for the solidly-Democratic 1st District seat being vacated by Rep. Shelley Berkley, D-Nev., according to the Las Vegas Review-Journal. (Berkley is running for the Senate.) Titus's decision sets up a competitive Democratic primary with state Sen. Ruben Kihuen, who also announced he was running in the 1st District last week.

Titus' decision was expected. She lives in the 1st District and if she wins the primary, she'd be a heavy favorite to return to Congress. But she faces a tough battle for the nomination against Kihuen, an up-and-coming Latino state senator who views the district's demographics as giving him an edge. Nearly 40 percent of the district is Hispanic, and that number has been growing fast.

"I've been in a primary before. It's hard when it's in the family, but whenever there's an open seat, there could be a primary," Titus told the Las Vegas Sun last week. "I don't think anyone wants to run against me. I've got a good record, solid support with the base."

Some Democratic officials wanted Titus to run against Heck, to avoid the prospect of two leading candidates running against each other in a safely Democratic seat - instead of taking on a potentially-vulnerable Republican. Under the newly-proposed lines, Obama would have won 54 percent of the vote in Heck's district.

Last night on late-night, TV hosts covered sexual harassment allegations against Herman Cain, Rick Perry's off-the-cuff remarks over the weekend, and, of course, Halloween.

"President Obama invited trick-or-treaters to the White House Saturday night. A very scary party they had," Jay Leno said Monday. "They sat in a circle, turned off all the nights and the kids read the president his poll numbers."

Don't miss today's Must See Moment at 2:26 where President Obama's competitive streak leads him to release footage of his badminton skills in action:

Take our late-night poll after the jump...

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Cain's big day in Washington Monday was marked by inconsistencies in his explanation of events, feds are looking more closely at Corzine's brokerage firm, Cantwell's numbers are looking quite good, and Perry is getting some reinforcements in South Carolina and Iowa. Here's today's rundown:

8) Is Jon Huntsman fluent in Chinese? Slate takes a closer look at exactly what he says in Mandarin during some media appearances and finds the answer is no. But Huntsman's daughters took issue with the piece, tweeting: "Any fluent linguist would know that going from Mandarin-English isn't usually a direct translation. Better luck next time @slate magazine."

7) Federal investigators are looking at the brokerage firm run by former New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine, the New York Times reports. The inquiry centers around hundreds of millions of dollars in missing customer money. Corzine has not been accused of any wrongdoing, but the inquiry threatens to further tarnish his reputation, the Times notes. As Ben Smith pointed out on Monday, Corzine has been a top prospect to serve as Treasury Secretary in the second term, or in another economic capacity, even before then.

6) On Monday, we reported the results of a new University of Washington poll that showed Republican Rob McKenna with a slight lead in that state's 2012 governor's race. But we overlooked some better news for Democrats: Sen. Maria Cantwell, D-Wash., who will also be on the ballot next year, is viewed favorably by 53 percent of voters, according to the poll. Just 34 percent of voters have an unfavorable opinion of Cantwell.