December 2011

Happy New Year's Eve and welcome back to our series of year end posts/recaps (see our takes on 2011's Biggest Flops, Luckiest Candidates, Top Comeback Kids, The Year in Media, and the Biggest Twitter Losers). Here's a NYE bonus helping: The year's biggest breakout stars in statewide races.

These are candidates who were not household names at the beginning of the year, and in some cases were not even on the list of potential candidates being discussed. For all of them, however, 2012 will be a big test, and if they do not deliver, 2011 could be all for naught.

5) Bill Maloney: It might seem out of place to list a candidate who came up short in his general election bid on this list, but the West Virginia Republican gubernatorial nominee shouldn't feel bad at all about the year he had.

He came from nowhere to upset the favorite in the GOP primary, former Secretary of State Betty Ireland and waged an impressive general election bid against Democratic Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin.

He also won the good faith of the RGA, who chipped in with a very big ad buy in the closing days of the race, which Maloney lost by just three points. He's exploring a 2012 rematch against Tomblin, and if the two face off again, the race will likely be one of next year's marquee contests.

4) Josh Mandel: The Republican treasurer of Ohio attracted some national buzz last year when he won his statewide race with the support of over 2 million voters. When he declared himself a Senate candidate, his national stock skyrocketed; what's more, he turned in one of the most impressive fundraising quarters of the year.

But Mandel still has much to prove in 2012. His military background is appealing, but his boyish looks will remind voters of how young and relatively inexperienced he is.

As 2011 draws to a close, here's a rundown of what we at The Hotline learned throughout the course of the year:

-- 2011 proved that in a national campaign, the basic building blocks, organization, discipline, consistent messaging and fundraising still matter most. With the repetitive rise and fall of GOP presidential candidates throughout the primary season, we saw time and again what happened to candidates who fell short on one or more of these fronts.

Rick Perry was expected to bridge the divide between social and fiscal conservatives, but minimal exposure on a national platform translated into weak debates and flubs on the campaign trail. Herman Cain was outspoken, but lacked the discipline and organization needed to keep the Republican electorate. Something similar can be said about Newt Gingrich. Mitt Romney's steady effort, while not flashy, has proven to be a solid approach. Fiery rhetoric can fire up the base, but if it is not matched by the other necessary ingredients, it won't be enough.

-- It seems like there were a lot of GOP presidential debates this year, right? In fact, 2011 featured only one more Republican debate than 2007 (there were 12 in 2007 and 13 in 2011). And that doesn't even take into account the additional 12 Democratic presidential debates that aired in 2007. What is actually unique this year is that the number of people watching these debates has nearly doubled. 7.6 million people watched the ABC News debate on Dec. 10 -- a Saturday night -- and 6.7 million tuned into the Fox News debate on Dec. 15, by comparison the CNN debate on Nov. 28, 2007, brought in 4.2 million viewers.

-- After a year of redistricting where over half of the states have completed drawing new maps for 2012, House Republicans appear to be well-positioned to hang onto the majority thanks to some creative effort in key states that protect their most vulnerable incumbents. When all is said and done, Republicans would probably only end up gaining 1-2 seats at most from the redistricting process itself. But it's the gerrymandering in states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin and Indiana that protects a slew of vulnerable Republicans who would normally face difficult re-election campaigns. The average House district in the country will be notably more Republican than in 2010. As our Cook Political Report colleague David Wasserman noted this month, there were 72 Democrats sitting in seats with a Republican-leaning PVI score in 2010; now there are just 21 Republicans sitting in Democratic-leaning seats.

The Cook Political Report's latest ratings list 31 House Republicans as vulnerable for re-election (1 likely Dem, 3 lean Dem, 13 toss-ups, and 14 in the lean GOP category). And there are 23 Democrats in the same categories (5 lean Republican, 8 tossups, 10 lean Democrat). Unless there's a big Democratic wave -- and with President Obama's mediocre-at-best approval ratings, that's a long-shot - winning the necessary 25 seats for a majority is an awfully difficult task. Another statistic to note: Since 1936, no president on the ballot has seen his party net more than 24 House seats in the same cycle.

-- While one narrative this year has focused on the power of outsiders, the major players in competitive 2012 Senate races are mostly establishment insiders. Among the top GOP recruits: former governors in Hawaii, Virginia and Wisconsin; sitting House members in Arizona, Missouri, Montana and North Dakota; and former House members in Connecticut, Michigan, New Mexico and Wisconsin.

Updated at 5:35 p.m.

With the caucuses on Tuesday, the Sunday shows have Iowa on their minds.

Three of the five major shows -- Meet The Press, Fox News Sunday and State of the Union -- will broadcast live from Des Moines on Sunday. Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad will appear on four of the shows to talk about the state's caucus process. He will be joined by the state's Republican Party chairman, Matt Strawn, on Meet the Press and by would-be kingmaker Rep. Steve King, R-Ia., on State of the Union.

Former Sen. Rick Santorum, who has been rising in Iowa polls this week, will be on Meet the Press for the first time since June. Reps. Ron Paul, R-Texas, and Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., both appear on This Week and Fox News Sunday, while Paul will make solo visits to State of the Union and Bloomberg's Political Capital.

Also this weekend, CNN will air two specials featuring live, unedited campaign stops and speeches by the candidates in Iowa. "The Contenders" series will be anchored by Candy Crowley and air live on Saturday and Sunday, from 2 to 6 p.m. and 2 to 5 p.m., respectively.

ABC White House correspondent Jake Tapper will take over hosting duties at "This Week" in Washington on Sunday, before ABC's George Stephanopoulos takes the helm on January 9. Former host Christiane Amanpour signed off at the end of last week's show and has already begun reporting on international affairs for the network.

Check out the full listings after the jump.

As 2012 approaches, we've been bringing you our series of year end posts/recaps (see our 2011's Luckiest Candidates, Top Comeback Kids, Year in Media, and Biggest Twitter Losers) and we'll end with our list of the biggest flops of 2011:

5. Retired Lt. Gen. Ricardo Sanchez (D): In April, Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chair Patty Murray talked up Texas as a state where Democrats were "aggressively recruiting," and included it in a list of six GOP-held Senate seats she thought Democrats could win. The big recruit was revealed to be Sanchez, a Hispanic with military experience who Democrats thought could be a contender.

But Sanchez just never took off: his fundraising was lackluster, and the DSCC stopped mentioning Texas as a potential pickup opportunity months ago. It barely made a ripple when he ended his campaign earlier this month.

4. Kenosha County Supervisor Rob Zerban: Zerban was a much-hyped DCCC recruit challenging a House Republican Democrats would love to take down: House Budget Committee Chair Paul Ryan. But after Zerban told Hotline On Call in June that he would post a "big number" for fundraising in the second quarter, he went on to report bringing in just $120,000, loaning himself another $100,000. That's pennies compared to Ryan's haul of nearly $900,000 that quarter, with millions in the bank. And Zerban's fundraising showed no signs of taking off in the next report. We'll see if the final report of the year shows any improvement.

3. Sen. Olympia Snowe's, R-Maine, challengers: a year ago, Snowe was considered highly vulnerable to a tea party challenger -- and tea party activist Andrew Ian Dodge was touting a mysterious conservative candidate who would swoop in and challenge the longtime senator from the right. It turned out he was talking about himself. His fundraising has been dismal, and Snowe's other conservative challenger, businessman Scott D'Amboise, hasn't done much better. And Snowe dominates in polls.

So collectively, the tea party challengers to Snowe have not come close to living up to the hype.

Rep. Steve Austria, R-Ohio, announced Friday that he will not run for reelection in 2012. He blamed the new Ohio redistricting map, which carved up his old 7th District and had forced him to file for reelection in the new 10th District, also home to Republican Rep. Mike Turner:

Austria was first elected in 2008, replacing retiring Republican Rep. Dave Hobson. He would have been an underdog in the primary against Turner, the former mayor of Dayton. Slow population growth forced Ohio to contract two congressional districts this year and Austria and Turner were combined into one district. (Democratic Rep. Betty Sutton was also forced into a new district with freshman GOP Rep. Jim Renacci.)

Austria is the only Asian-American Republican currently serving in Congress; his father was born in the Philippines.

The new 10th District is potentially competitive in 2012: Under the new lines, Obama narrowly carried it in 2008, and George W. Bush won 52 percent of the vote there in 2004, according to GOP estimates. No Democrats have stepped forward to run yet, but Montgomery County GOP chairman Greg Gantt told the Dayton Daily News last week he expected an "extremely competitive" general election race.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee added five more House members to its Frontline incumbent-protection program Friday.

The new Frontline members are Reps. John Barrow, D-Ga., Lois Capps, D-Calif., John Garamendi, D-Calif., Dave Loebsack, D-Iowa, and Betty Sutton, D-Ohio. They join thirteen previously named members in the program. Reps. Russ Carnahan, D-Mo., Mark Critz, D-Pa., and Gary Peters, D-Mich., have dropped off the Frontline rolls since then; each of them was drawn into a new congressional district with another Democratic incumbent earlier this year.

Barrow and Loebsack have long been considered vulnerable and each barely won reelection in 2010, while Sutton was drawn into a tough new Ohio district with a Republican incumbent, freshman Rep. Jim Renacci. The addition of Capps and Garamendi to the Frontline program demonstrates that the chaos wrought by California's citizen redistricting commission this year did not fall solely on Republicans.

As 2012 approaches, we've been bringing you our series of year end posts/recaps (see our 2011's Top Comeback Kids, Year in Media, and Biggest Twitter Losers) and now, here is our compilation of the luckiest senators up for reelection:

5. Sen. Olympia Snowe, R-Maine: At the beginning of the 2012 election cycle, a strong tea party challenge to the moderate Snowe was considered likely (I even speculated last November about the possibility of her running as an independent if necessary). But that tough challenge never materialized.

Maine tea party activist Andrew Ian Dodge had touted a mystery candidate who he said would emerge to challenge Snowe -- but that candidate turned out to be Dodge himself. Neither he nor Republican businessman Scott D'Amboise has been able to raise significant money and get any traction against the incumbent, who now looks poised to sail through with little resistance.

4. Sen. Orrin Hatch, R-Utah: Hatch was another GOP senator in danger of a serious tea party challenge, particularly in the wake of former Sen. Bob Bennett, R-Utah, losing the nomination at Utah's 2010 convention. But specifically, Rep. Jason Chaffetz, R-Utah, appeared likely to mount a credible challenge from the right -- until he suddenly announced he wouldn't enter the race after all. Hatch's well-stocked campaign coffers likely played a role in his would-be opponent's decision.

Hatch is far from out of the woods -- state Sen. Dan Liljenquist, who has a compelling personal story and could command both tea party and establishment support, has said he is leaning toward a run and will announce in the new year. But for now, we'll count Hatch as lucky for Chaffetz taking a pass on the race, and for Rep. Jim Matheson, D-Utah, deciding to run for the House again after floating the idea of entering the Senate race.

Welcome back to the pre-New Year's edition of Hotline Sort. In today's edition: A former Obama ally takes on the president again, in National Review. Virginia Republicans force presidential primary voters to take a loyalty oath. And Romney compares the president to Marie Antoinette. Here's today's rundown:

9) A state judge in New Mexico adopted a redistricting plan that makes minimal changes to the state's three Congressional districts - a plan supported by GOP Gov. Susana Martinez.

8) Take one name off the list of prospective Democrats looking to succeed retiring Sen. Ben Nelson. Lincoln Mayor Chris Beutler announced he wasn't going to be pursuing a Senate campaign, the Lincoln Journal-Star reports.

"I have not given much thought about running for the Senate, because I like living in Nebraska and would like to continue the success we experienced in Lincoln over the past few years."

Former Nebraska Sen. Bob Kerrey, the Democrats' top prospective candidate, is still mulling a potential campaign.

7) Former Alabama Rep. Artur Davis (D), once a close ally of President Obama's, has been sharply critical of his party and president since retiring from Congress. Today he pens an op-ed in National Review, criticizing Nelson for being the pivotal vote in getting Obama's health care law passed - and blames that for his political predicament.

Notable quotable from Davis: "Not surprisingly, then, some Democrats don't mind the new shape of things. One more vanished moderate means one less restraint against growing government. The party's ruling class seems fully prepared to sacrifice whole sections of the country, from the South to the Midwest farm belt, on the theory that inexorable demographic trends will more than make up the losses."

6) Rep. Steven Palazzo, R-Miss., is the latest Republican freshman to face a primary challenger from the right, just a year after being elected. Retired engineer and tea party organizer Ron Vincent announced he'll challenge the congressman. Palazzo's district is conservative, and his main threat will be in the primary.

The filing deadline for Mississippi Congressional candidates is Jan .13.

5) Adding insult to injury, the Virginia Republican party is requiring all voters in the state's March presidential primary - the one where just Mitt Romney and Ron Paul will be competing - to sign a loyalty oath pledging to support the Republican nominee. Anyone who refuses to sign will be barred from voting in the primary.

As 2012 approaches, we've been bringing you our series of year end posts/recaps (see our Year in Media and Biggest Twitter Losers) and today, we present the top five comeback attempts of 2011 in the statewide races.

These are not limited to candidates running for an office they once held; rather they are the strongest candidates who have held another elected office and then left, either because of term limits, or because they were not reelected or left to run for higher office.

5) Former New Mexico Rep. Heather Wilson: Bruised badly during a tough Senate primary against the more conservative Rep. Steve Pearce in 2008, Wilson is making another go at the upper chamber, and will once again have to face up to an onslaught of conservative criticism from opponents -- and Democrats who fear her as a general election candidate.

So far, she's held up pretty well, raising money at an impressive clip and avoiding negative headlines. Her main GOP opponent -- Lt. Gov. John Sanchez -- has struggled to raise money and find his own footing, adding to Wilson's early advantage. Plus it is no secret that GOP Gov. Susana Martinez is no fan of Sanchez.

4) Former Michigan Rep. Pete Hoekstra: There is a lot Hoekstra would probably like to forget about his 2010 bid for governor. He was faced with an onslaught of criticism from opponents and his poor fundraising took its toll on his campaign. But none of that was enough to deter the former congressman from making another statewide bid.

After initially saying he was not interested in a Senate run, Hoekstra reversed course in July and entered a GOP field that had been characterized by its lack of a major candidate.

He immediately put to rest concerns about his fundraising, bringing in an impressive $1 million during the third quarter. He's focused the lion's share of his attention on Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow, but he'll have to get past Cornerstone Schools co-founder Clark Durant in the primary first. Durant has also shown he knows how to raise a few bucks.

3) North Carolina gubernatorial candidate Pat McCrory: McCrory lost a close race to Democratic Gov. Bev Perdue in 2008, and the former mayor of Charlotte has spent 2011 gearing up for a rematch. Perdue's numbers have made Democratic strategists very nervous, and she looks like the most vulnerable Democratic governor in the nation headed into 2012.

National Republicans have a significant financial advantage when it comes to the governor's races, and they are also facing a map with more pickup opportunities. And McCrory is one of the their top recruits heading into next year.

2011 was a year of upheaval in the media, with small outfits and blogs breaking major news, major players fleeing their network homes, troubles at News Corp. and the New York Times erecting a pay wall. As the year comes to a close, here are the top 11 biggest media trends of 2011 and what they might mean for 2012:

Breaking News: 2011 was a remarkable year for breaking news coverage. The death of Osama bin Laden, the Arab Spring, the earthquake in Japan, and a 2012 presidential race with several twists and turns stretched network's budgets and offered glimpses of a journalistic process we rarely see. CNN teams were nearly bombed in Libya. CBS' Lara Logan was placed in mortal danger in Egypt. High profile personalities were awoken in middle of the night as they were informed of bin Laden's death, forcing New York Times to literally stop the presses, a rarity, and re-print the front page. Specialty media had their moments to shine like Japanese broadcaster NHK during this spring's devastating earthquake, Al Jazeera for the upheaval in the Middle East and Bloomberg TV for the Eurozone crisis. With the protests in Syria just around the corner, the trend isn't going to stop.

The Great Moderators: 2011 ushered in 13 Republican presidential debates, which have brought in huge ratings. The ABC/Yahoo! News/Des Moines Register Debate on December 10 attracted over 7.5 million viewers -- on a Saturday night. The Fox News/Iowa Republican party debate just five days later had an impressive 6.7 million total viewers. The debates have also figured centrally in the rise and fall of several presidential campaigns, particularly Texas Gov. Rick Perry's and former Speaker Newt Gingrich's. With those ratings and another 11 debates already scheduled for 2012, expect to see even more in the future.

Sex Sells: There's almost nothing the media love more than a good old fashioned sex scandal and 2011 didn't disappoint. In February, Gawker broke the news that former Rep. Chris Lee, R-N.Y., had posted shirtless photos of himself on Craigslist and solicited at least one transsexual. 2011 also brought us Arnold Schwarzenegger's love child and Dominique Strauss Kahn's resignation as head of the IMF after a hotel maid accused him of sexual assault. Herman Cain's sexual harassment scandal brought even more media intrigue.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Romney and Paul lead the pack in Iowa in a new poll, as Santorum inches his way up. Gingrich raises $9 million in the 4th quarter, Kucinich will challenge Kaptur in Ohio, and Arlen Specter takes the stage. Here's today's rundown:

9) Former Pennsylvania Sen. Arlen Specter tries his hand at a little stand-up. Enjoy.

8) Sen. Scott Brown, R-Mass., says he is the underdog against Elizabeth Warren. "I've always been the underdog and I will be the underdog again,'' he said in an interview. Brown and his aides have been downplaying expectations and repeating the word underdog in interviews. It's true that in the blue state in a presidential year, it's very tough for a Republican to win statewide. But it's also a testament to the early success of Warren; Brown's still an incumbent with populist appeal and a very well-stocked warchest. Not your typical "underdog" profile.

7) Out of the hospital, Rep. Howard Coble, R-N.C., didn't make any definitive announcements about his political future on Wednesday, but he did say this: "If the decision were today, I'd be leaning toward re-election."

6) In case you missed this on Wednesday, Ohio Democratic Reps. Marcy Kaptur and Dennis Kucinich will face off in the state's 9th District. Kaptur has the early edge, since more of the district is in her current Toledo-area district than Kucinich's Cleveland-area seat.

5) Rep. Ron Paul's making a strong push to win the Iowa caucuses, and the New York Times looks today at the strict orders the enthusiastic wave of Paul volunteers descending on Iowa are under:

Washington state's bipartisan Redistricting Commission released a new congressional map proposal on Wednesday. The draft creates a new 10th District centered around the city of Olympia, shores up Republican Reps. Dave Reichert and Jaime Herrera Beutler and creates a majority minority district - if barely - in the 9th District.

A closer look at the four biggest takeaways from the proposed map, which you can take a look at on the commission's website.

-- 3rd's The Charm: If you were to write up a list of winners following the release of the draft map, 3rd District freshman Republican Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler would be at the top.

Herrera Beutler's district sheds Democratic-leaning Olympia in Thurston County to the new 10th District and picks up GOP-leaning Klickitat County to the southeast, along the Oregon border.

What's more, Herrera Beutler's 2010 Democratic opponent Denny Heck, who lost by just six points last year, will not be running in the 3rd, which has been shored up for the GOP. Rather, he announced on Wednesday that he will run in the new 10th District.

It's also worth mentioning that Herrera Beutler's GOP neighbor to the northeast, Dave Reichert, who has won four straight competitive races should also be pleased with the new map, which adds to his district some GOP-friendly real estate east of the Cascades in Kittias and Chelan Counties.

-- Give 'Em Heck! Heck also should be counted among the winners. He announced months ago that he would make another congressional run, but stopped short of saying where he would make a bid. On Wednesday, just after the draft map was released, Heck released a statement making clear he would run in the new 10th (just 24 minutes after the map was released), something The Hotline predicted earlier this month.

The new 10th District is built around the city of Olympia, a Democratic stronghold in Thurston County, which used to be in the 3rd District. The southeastern tip of Mason County and the western part of Pierce County will also be part of the new 10th.

-- First Read : The new 1st District bears the closest resemblance to Democratic Rep. Rick Larsen's old 2nd District, but with the Democratic-leaning coast, from the Seattle suburbs north to Bellingham, sliced off. However, it still leans Democratic: In 2010, GOP Senate nominee Dino Rossi was only able to barely crack the 50 percent mark in the new district, suggesting it may prove a tough climb for Republicans, especially during a non-wave year. Republican commissioner and former GOP Sen. Slade Gorton said the new 1st District could be the most closely divided in the country in 2012, but Democrats appear to have a head start in the area.

With 2012 just four days away, we at The Hotline ask, Should old acquaintances be forgot? It is in this spirit that we countdown the top Twitter follies of 2011, in the realm of politics:

5. Rep. Jay Inslee, D-Wash.: Inslee, who is running for governor of the Evergreen State, began following an Internet pornography company earlier this year due to a "technical glitch," according to his campaign. At the time, the company had only four other followers, including @Webcamagent, @gods4legangles and @MiaDogTweets, whose profile states that Mia is "just a German Shepherd trying to run the world!"

4. Three former aides to Rep. Rick Larsen, D-Wash.: The three aides were fired earlier this month after they tweeted about drinking on the job, among other things. The tweets by former employee Seth Burroughs included references to Larsen as "my idiot boss," spelling "questions" as "qustions," and venting about how his mom "just yelled" at him. Don't worry taxpayers, he made sure to give you a shout out as well, tweeting "I hope you don't mind that I'm watching YouTube clips of Nirvana at my government job."

3. Massachusetts Republican strategist Eric Fehrnstrom: Fehrnstrom, an adviser to Sen. Scott Brown, R-Mass., was the man behind @CrazyKhazei, an account that was used to mock Alan Khazei, who at the time was a Democratic Senate candidate. As CrazyKhazei, Fehrnstrom promised to "devote all my time in office to making gay videos" and proudly announced he "just read Scott Brown's book. He isn't the only one who had it tough growing up. I once got a splinter."

Fehrnstrom's plan finally unraveled when he tweeted a "CrazyKhazei"-like tweet from his @EricFehrn account. Oops.

Rep. Howard Coble, R-N.C., will not announce whether he is retiring from Congress at today's 1 p.m. press conference in his district. Coble, who was just released from the hospital, will be addressing the media on his recent health issues, according to his district office.

"There's no big announcement," said Kathy McClellan, Coble's Greensboro district office manager. "The news conference is to answer questions about his health."

The 80-year-old Republican congressman was admitted to George Washington University Hospital Dec. 13, with what was described as s respiratory infection. He was recuperating in a hospital in North Carolina and was released on Tuesday.

Coble said earlier in the year that he would decide whether to run for Congress again by the end of 2011, and speculation swirled today that an announcement was imminent, but he is postponing that choice until ongoing litigation over North Carolina's new district lines is resolved. "He's waiting to see if the lines change," McClellan said.

The North Carolina legislature significantly altered Coble's 6th District, drawing in eight new counties when it redid the state's congressional lines earlier this year, but the new district still offers safety for Republicans. Fifty-six percent of voters in the new NC-06 supported John McCain for president in 2008, and the district has a Cook Partisan Voting Index rating of R+11.

Coble was first elected in 1984 and won at least two-thirds of the vote in his district in each election since 1990. According to the Almanac of American Politics, Coble is the longest-tenured House Republican in North Carolina history.

-- Sean Sullivan contributed

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Ben Nelson's retirement puts the GOP in the driver's seat in Nebraska as Democrats float Bob Kerrey's name. Meanwhile, the Neumann/Thompson battle over fundraising emails rages on in Wisconsin, Washington state will release its redistricting map, and Rep. Howard Coble, R-N.C., could announce his retirement today Here's today's rundown:

10) Election commissioners drawing the congressional lines for the new Washington state map have reached an agreement, and will be releasing the new map today at 2:00 EST. Expect Republican Reps. Dave Reichert and Jaime Herrera Beutler to get safer seats, while the new 10th District will likely be a solidly-Democratic seat.

9) The Wall Street Journal takes a closer look at data from Catalist, an organization with Democratic ties that studies voter rolls. Some troubling signs for Democrats, and in particular, the president's reelection team:

The picture is similar among new registrations nationally. Democrats had a 2-to-1 advantage in 2008, but in the most recent quarter, Republicans were slightly ahead, Catalist found.

8) Rep. Howard Coble, R-N.C., who has served in the House since 1985, will hold a news conference at 1 p.m. to discuss his health following his recent hospitalization, North Carolina's News 14 reports. It could be an opportunity for the 80-year-old congressman to discuss whether he plans to seek reelection in 2012.

Stay tuned to Hotline On Call for the latest developments.

7) The New York Times takes a closer look today at Mitt Romney's habits when interacting with voters out on the campaign trail. Much has been written about Romney's often awkward exchanges. An interesting nugget from the piece: the former Bay State governor often tries to play something of a guessing game, venturing guesses about a person's age or ethnicity (often incorrectly, the piece notes).

To wit: This recent exchange from New Hampshire: "'Daughter?' he asked a woman sitting with a man and two younger girls at the diner in Tilton, N.H., on Friday morning. Her face turned a shade of red. 'Wife.'"

Tough just became tougher for Democrats hoping to maintain control of the Senate in 2012.

Sen. Ben Nelson's decision not to run for re-election puts a seat both parties viewed as competitive much closer into the Republican column. It reduces the Democrats' margin for error, forcing their candidates to run the table in battleground-state contests in order to hang onto their majority in 2012.

And the timing of Nelson's announcement -- even though it was telegraphed in advance -- doesn't make it any easier to swallow for his party.

Nelson's decision is a painful blow to Democrats, especially considering that it's a setback after a productive end of 2011 for the party.

Former Democratic National Committee Chairman Tim Kaine performed well during his first debate against former GOP Sen. George Allen in Virginia earlier this month, Elizabeth Warren has polled impressively against Sen. Scott Brown, R-Mass., and national Democrats got the candidates they wanted in Arizona and North Dakota last month when former Surgeon General Richard Carmona and former North Dakota Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp declared their candidacies.

But on Monday, the party was hit with a dose of reality.

Updated 5:02 p.m.

Sen. Ben Nelson, D-Neb., announced Tuesday that he is retiring after two terms in office, a move that is a serious blow to Democrats' hopes of maintaining its slim Senate majority. His decision turns what would have been a competitive red-state Senate race into a very likely GOP pickup next year.

"While I relish the opportunity to undertake the work that lies ahead, I also feel it's time for me to step away from elective office, spend more time with my family, and look for new ways to serve our state and nation," Nelson said in a videotaped statement. "Therefore, I am announcing today that I will not seek reelection. Simply put: It is time to move on."

Despite Democratic hopes that former Democratic Sen. Bob Kerrey will run again for the seat, Democrats have described Nelson running again as the only way to hold the seat.

RELATED: Ben Nelson's Almanac Profile

"There is no Plan B in Nebraska," a Democratic leadership aide said this month.

Nelson's retirement is especially tough for Democrats, given that Democratic outside groups poured over $1 million in ads on his behalf to shore up his standing in the state. The ads were also aired in hopes of convincing Nelson to run for a third term.

"Over the course of his career, Ben's commitment to working with both Democrats and Republicans across a broad range of issues is a trait far too often overlooked in today's politics," President Obama said in a statement. "Michelle and I commend Ben for his service, and wish him and his family well in the future."

"For more than two decades, Senator Nelson has been a loyal public servant to the people of Nebraska and he will be missed here in the US Senate. Republicans will continue to have their hands full with a very divisive primary in the state, which will provide an opportunity for Democrats to remain competitive," said Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chair Patty Murray, who notably stopped short of expressing confidence in a victory in the Cornhusker State.

Republicans have aggressively targeted Nelson this year, and outside GOP groups had already begun spending money against Nelson, hitting him over his vote for President Obama's health care law.

Nelson looked in decent shape for re-election, according to his campaign's own polling. In early December, Nelson released a poll showing his favorability was on the rise and that he improved his standing against Republican opponents. Democratic groups credited the ad campaign for improving his favorables.

But throughout the last month, Nelson continued to face a barrage of attacks from the opposition. Crossroads GPS decided to drop more than more than $500,000 against Nelson in the state's two largest media markets. Americans for Prosperity purchased $120,000 on cable television for anti-Nelson ads. And Nelson's likely Republican opponent, Attorney General Jon Bruning, launched an ad of his own earlier this month, in which he contrasts himself with Nelson.

Even with Nelson in the race, the senator was considered the most vulnerable Democrat up for re-election, given the conservative nature of his state. With Nelson out of the race, Republicans hold a clear edge here. The Democratic bench is weak in the state, though some operatives have discussed the possibility that former Sen. Bob Kerrey could run again.

Bruning is the frontrunner in the Republican primary, which also includes Treasurer Don Stenberg, state Sen. Deb Fischer, and businessman Pat Flynn. Bruning leads in fundraising and polls.

"Ben Nelson has been a dedicated public servant of the state of Nebraska for over two decades. I wish him and his family well in their future endeavors," Bruning said on Monday.

There was speculation Gov. Dave Heineman could still enter the Republican race, he had framed a potential run as something he would consider if he had to in order to turn the seat Republican -- something that wouldn't be necessary with Nelson taking a pass on reelection.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. It's Iowa, Iowa, Iowa all week, with just a week left to go until the Jan. 3 Caucuses, and Romney is making a late push in the state where many had written off his chances months ago. Meanwhile, a new congressional map in the Garden State will reportedly pit two Democrats against each other, while the Wisconsin recall effort against GOP Gov. Scott Walker edges its way into the Senate race. Here's today's rundown:

8) A new CNN report raises questions about Newt Gingrich's account of his divorce from his first wife.

7) In case you missed it last week headed into the Christmas holiday: an Indiana circuit court judge ruled that GOP Secretary of State Charlie White was ineligible to be on the ballot last year, thereby making Democrat Vop Osili the winner. Democrats do not control a single statewide elected office in the state President Obama won in 2008, but if the ruling stands -- an appeals process is forthcoming -- it's a major victory for a party that has had little to celebrate in Indiana the last couple of years.

6) Yet another poll shows a dead heat between Rep. Shelley Berkley, D-Nev., and Republican Sen. Dean Heller. Get used to hearing that refrain this cycle in Nevada and as well as in Montana, Virginia and Massachusetts.

5) The knives are out once again in the Wisconsin Senate GOP primary. GOP Gov. Scott Walker has been at the nexus of the Badger State political universe for the last month, with the strong possibility of a recall election looming. In a fundraising email, former Gov. Tommy Thompson's team lambasts former GOP Rep. Mark Neumann for his previous attacks against the governor (Neumann challenged Walker in the gubernatorial primary last year, in what became an ugly battle). "Remember this tweet where Neumann said Scott Walker wasn't a conservative?" the email asks.

Over the next month, watch to see how the recall edges its way into the Senate primary. Even as the Neumann/Thompson scuffle continues, it may actually be state Assembly Speaker Jeff Fitzgerald who is affected the most.

What we at The Hotline learned this week:

-- We're reminded that the 1990s were not that long ago. Mitt Romney's Senate run against the late Sen. Ted Kennedy and Newt Gingrich's time as speaker have come under scrutiny this campaign season. Now, Rep. Ron Paul's, R-Texas, newsletters have reappeared again and on CNN, he went as far as to prematurely end an interview with Gloria Borger over the matter.

-- Gingrich's repeated invocation of Ronald Reagan's 11th commandment will only get him so far. Sure, it may win him good will among some conservatives, but the reality is that the barrage of negative ads from the opposition is taking its toll against the former speaker.

-- The payroll tax debate turned out to be a political victory for Democrats and a loss for House Speaker John Boehner. But in the Senate races, the picture is a little murkier. It was an opportunity for both Sens. Dean Heller, R-Nev., and Scott Brown, R-Mass., to appear more consensus builder than party loyalist. But Reps. Denny Rehberg, R-Mont., and Rick Berg, R-N.D., will have to explain why they initially voted to block the Senate-passed compromise earlier in the week.

-- As January approaches, so will the deadline to submit signatures to force Wisconsin GOP Gov. Scott Walker into a recall election. We're reminded that there are encouraging signs for both Democrats and Republicans. Walker has lots of money and a head start over the airwaves. Democrats have lots of enthusiasm and a presidential year that could work in their favor. But they don't (yet) have a consensus challenger.

-- Yet another Virginia Senate poll released this week showed a dead heat between former GOP Sen. George Allen and former Democratic National Committee Chairman Tim Kaine. Sound familiar? It should, because every single reputable live caller poll has showed something similar. Both candidates are so well-known that defining them will prove a difficult task for the opposition. The "turnout will really matter" cliche will, well, really matter in this race.

Late-night hosts had fun with President Obama's Virginia shopping trip this week.

"Obama bought about $200 worth of Christmas presents at Best Buy," Jimmy Fallon said Thursday. "Then it got awkward when he asked the Geek Squad if they'd fix the economy."

Don't miss today's Must See Moment at 2:20 when David Letterman presents The Hobbit movie trailer, starring one of the Republican presidential candidates:

Take our late-night poll after the jump...

A new poll released early Friday shows Sen. Dean Heller, R-Nev., and Rep. Shelley Berkley, D-Nev., running neck-and-neck in what could be a pivotal race in determining which party controls the Senate following the 2012 elections.

The poll, conducted by the University of Nevada-Las Vegas for the Las Vegas Review-Journal and KLAS-TV, shows Berkley narrowly leading Heller among all registered voters, 44 percent to 43 percent, well within the poll's margin of error of +/- 4 percent.

Berkley wins the support of three-fourths of Democrats, while Heller holds 77 percent of Republicans, according to the Review-Journal. Among independents, Heller leads, 49 percent to 36 percent. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid lost among independents by four points in his 2010 reelection victory in Nevada, according to exit polls.

On Wednesday, I took a closer look at the reasons Republicans should be optimistic about the chances that GOP Gov. Scott Walker will survive a recall effort. Today, a glance at the reasons Democrats should be bullish about the prospect of unseating the first-term governor:

The Energy Level: After the summer recalls ended with Democrats falling short of their oft-repeated goal of retaking control of the state Senate, many were left wondering if the wind was potentially taken out of the sails of a Walker recall effort, and whether such a push would even be launched at all.

You don't have to look any further than the signature collection process right now to get a better sense of how energized activists are. With about a month left to get the requisite 540,000, Democrats nearly reached the target 540,000 signatures with a month still left to go on the clock.

Granted, not everyone who takes the 30 seconds to sign a petition would ultimately vote against Walker, but the speed of the collection process should concern GOP strategists.

A Walker Recall Election Likely Won't Be The Only Recall Election: Overlooked in the effort to get Walker's name on the ballot next year is the fact that Democrats are targeting four GOP state senators as well. Activists say they are on pace to trigger recalls in the four districts; if they do, it will mean another opportunity to put control of the state's upper chamber in the hands of voters (Republicans currently hold a slim 17-16 advantage)

Two days after Sen. Richard Lugar, R-Ind., released his first radio ad, his Republican opponent, state Treasurer Richard Mourdock, is hitting back with an ad of his own which ties the senator to President Obama.

"It's not just Barack Obama who dug this hole, it's his partner, Dick Lugar," a narrator says in the 60-second spot, Mourdock's first of the campaign. The ad also assails Lugar for voting for TARP, among other things.

The second half of the spot touts Mourdock's record.

"Mourdock will get our economy back on track by standing up to Barack Obama," another narrator adds.

Mourdock's fundraising has been underwhelming so far, so he hasn't had money to spare going up with multiple ads early in the cycle, as some challengers opt to do.

Mourdock spokesman Chris Conner tells Hotline On Call the ad is running in Central Indiana (as Lugar's ad is) and that it is a limited buy. A source familiar with the buys said Mourdock is matching Lugar spot for spot on WIBC, Indianapolis. The source added that both Lugar and Mourdock are scheduled to go dark on Saturday.

The radio spots from Lugar and Mourdock neatly sum up the simplicity of the main point of contention in the race: Lugar's ad tries to spell out how the senator has stood up to Obama, while Mourdock's commercial (which directly addresses the Lugar ad) ties Lugar to the president.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Joe Walsh gets a break in Illinois while Vern Buchanan gets more negative headlines in Florida. Gingrich has a challenge for Romney, while Ovide is staying neutral in the presidential race.

Happy Holidays from all of us here at The Hotline! Hotline Sort will return on Tuesday morning. Until then, stay tuned to Hotline On Call for breaking campaign news and analysis. Here's today's rundown:

7) Check out this tease of the upcoming film "Game Change." (h/t The Fix).

6) ProPublica has a long, detailed story up on how California Democrats gamed the redistricting process. It's definitely worth a read. However, state Democratic Party Chairman John Burton doesn't think so: "It's complete bull...t, an absolute f...ing fabrication," he told the San Francisco Chronicle. California Republicans are now calling for an official investigation into Democrats' tactics in the wake of the report.

5) The NRSC outraised the DSCC $2.9 million to $2.5 million in November. The NRSC has $9.1 million in the bank and no debt, the committee announced on Wednesday.

David Letterman brought out a photo of Jon Huntsman's high school rock band Wizard while the Republican presidential candidate was on the Late Show on Wednesday.

"I thought I could make it big," Huntsman said. "I wanted to be Paul Shaffer." The former governor of Utah then took the stage with Shaffer.

And don't miss today's Must See Moment at 2:30 when Jay Leno presents a clip of President Obama who appears ready for vacation while speaking from the White House briefing room.

Take our late-night poll after the jump...

The Tennis Channel won a significant victory against Comcast on Wednesday, becoming the first network to win a ruling against the cable provider over its position in the lineup relative to other channels that provide similar content. The ruling could have a significant impact on future conflicts between Comcast and other independent networks.

Federal Communications Commission administrative law judge Richard Sippel ruled that Comcast must move the Tennis Channel from the premium sports tier to the more broadly distributed sports tier, where the Comcast-owned Golf Channel and Versus are located. Sippel found Comcast had "unreasonable restraints on the ability [for the Tennis Channel] to compete fairly." Comcast Vice President Sena Fitzmaurice told Hotline On Call that they were seeking a stay on the ruling for 50 days.

Other prominent networks have sparred with Comcast over channel positioning. Bloomberg TV, for example, has fought with Comcast over the positioning of its network in the cable listings lineup. In the Washington, D.C. market, CNN Headline News, CNN, FNC, MSNBC and CNBC occupy channels 35-39 while Bloomberg TV is channel 103. The concern raised by the Tennis Channel and Bloomberg was cited by critics when NBC Universal and Comcast merged earlier this year. Comcast was positioned to promote the networks it owned over the interests of the ones it did not, the argument went.

The Tennis Channel's victory gives a "glimmer of hope," as media watchdog group Free Press Policy Counsel Corie Wright put it, to other networks who might come into conflict with Comcast.

A majority of voters in the District of Columbia disapprove of the job that Mayor Vincent Gray is doing, and more voters prefer Gray's two most recent predecessors, according to a new poll released early Thursday.

According to the poll, conducted by Clarus Research Group, 53 percent of District voters disapprove of the job that Gray is doing as mayor, while only 34 percent of voters approve of his job performance. Among registered Democrats -- who dominate the District elections -- his approval rating stands at 39 percent.

In March, just three months into his tenure as mayor, 31 percent of voters approved of Gray's job performance, and 40 percent disapproved.

There is a vast racial divide in District voters' perception of Gray's mayoralty. Among African-American voters, 48 percent approve of Gray's job performance, and 37 percent disapprove. But white voters disapprove of Gray's handling of his job by a wide margin: Only 16 percent of white voters approve of Gray, while an overwhelming majority, 77 percent, disapprove.

"The mayor has never defined his mayoralty," said Clarus Research Group President Ron Faucheux. "News stories about cronyism and criminal investigations have framed his first year in office. His ratings, and those of the Council, are suffering from a cloud of uneasiness that hangs over city politics."

As I noted last week, activists in Wisconsin have been collecting signatures at a very fast pace in the effort to recall GOP Gov. Scott Walker, making it very likely the Republican will appear on the ballot in 2012. While there is a lot of energy on the Democratic side, there are several factors that should give Republicans some optimism. Here is a look at some reasons why Republicans should be optimistic that Walker can hold his seat (tomorrow, we will look at reasons Democrats should be optimistic they can unseat him):

Money: It was not just random chance that United Wisconsin decided to announce on Dec. 15 that it had collected over 507,000 signatures (a little over 540,000 valid signatures are required) with a month still left to go on the clock. The same day, Walker announced that he had raised $5.1 million dollars during the latest fundraising period, finishing with a cool $3 million in the bank. That's a huge haul.

What's more, according to the Wisconsin Center for Investigative Journalism, nearly half of the money came from out of state. That will prompt criticism from Democrats, but it also suggests that Walker has -- and will continue to have -- strong support from surrogates outside the Badger State. Don't underestimate the power of outside money.

No Clear Democratic challenger: There is no consensus challenger against Walker. Many Democrats were hopeful earlier this year that Russ Feingold, the former senator and favorite of liberals might make a bid. But he's said he is not running.

As Rep. Russ Carnahan, D-Mo. -- who was redistricted out of his St. Louis-based 3rd District seat -- weighs whether to challenge the winner of the GOP primary in the 2nd District (likely former Ambassador Ann Wagner), or run in a primary against fellow Democrat Lacy Clay in the 1st District, veteran Show-Me State political observer and former state Sen. Jeff Smith offers a compelling take on why Carnahan should run in the 1st:

Former Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand, whose name has been floated as a potential Democratic gubernatorial candidate in New Hampshire, appears to be headed in a different direction. The Portsmouth Herald:

It's encouraging news for former New Hampshire state Senate Majority Leader Maggie Hassan, who -- for now at least -- will remain the only Democratic contender in the race to replace retiring Democratic Gov. John Lynch. Two Republicans who are both running as conservatives -- 2010 Senate candidate Ovide Lamontagne and activist Kevin Smith -- are also in the race.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. The Virginia Senate race remains razor tight, President Obama sees some encouraging news in a new poll, Gary Johnson will leave the GOP race, Arizona maps move toward final approval and Joe Walsh is inspiring a lawmaker in Illinois -- but not for reasons he'd like. Here's today's rundown:

9) Gary Johnson will get out of the GOP presidential race and will run for the Libertarian nomination.

8) Spreading a little holiday spirit: A Democratic Illinois state lawmaker has introduced a bill that would prevent individuals who owe over $10,000 in back child support from running for office in the state. The bill's inspiration? Rep. Joe Walsh, R-Ill., who's in a child support battle with his ex-wife.

7) Half of Empire State voters approve of the job that Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, D-N.Y., is doing, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll released early Wednesday. That is down a tick from her high-water mark of 54 percent in June. But just 23 percent of voters disapprove of her job performance, which might explain why Republicans have struggled to find a top-tier challenger for the seat.

6) Federal judges hearing a case involving Maryland's redistricting map were skeptical on Tuesday that mapmakers intentionally diluted black voting power, the Baltimore Sun reports. The judges did not indicate when they would decide the case.

Late-night hosts on Tuesday celebrated the first night of Hanukkah by bringing back two of their favorite traditions: making fun of former President George W. Bush and playing a clip of Rick Perry looking silly.

Don't miss today's Must See Moment at 2:12 when David Letterman presents the viral video of the sitting Texas governor dancing the hora:

Take our late-night poll after the jump...

The House on Tuesday voted to block a Senate-backed compromise on a payroll tax cut extension, a move that's keeping Congress from finishing up its work before the holidays. But beyond the convenience of getting out of town, the debate over an extension is likely to play a role in several key races that could determine control of the upper chamber.

And the way Republican candidates are acting reveals a great deal about the strategic posturing over the issue. A closer look at the races where the debate is leaving a mark:

Massachusetts/Nevada: In the two states where Democrats see their best opportunities to make pickups, Sens. Scott Brown, R-Mass., and Dean Heller, R-Nev., both voted in favor of the temporary extension that passed in the Senate. They have been vocally lobbying for the House to pass the bill, a stand that puts them on Democrats' side and against the House GOP. That's not a bad thing for either candidate: The House/Senate spat over the payroll tax extension offers them an opportunity to appear more consensus builder than party loyalist - which will pay dividends in the general election.

Indiana: The one Republican Senate incumbent who faces a serious primary challenge right now finds himself at odds with his GOP opponent in the debate over the payroll tax cut extension.

If you're looking to run against Utah Republican Gov. Gary Herbert, you might want to get in line.

With two Republicans -- former state Rep. Morgan Philpot and state Rep. Ken Sumsion -- already running to his right, a new Democrat considering a challenge against the Republican incumbent has emerged.

Retired two-star Army General Peter Cooke tells the Salt Lake Tribune it's likely that he will jump into the fray.

"I would say it's very, very, very probable," Cooke told the paper, adding that an official announcement won't come until after the holidays. "I've been approached by many businessmen and a lot of my military veterans, and I'm very seriously considering it. There's a good chance I'm going to move forward with it."

Cooke ran for Congress once before in 1978, and has worked in government before. Other Democrats are also looking at a run, but Democratic Rep. Jim Matheson, who would have been a potentially formidable candidate, announced last week that he will run in the state's new 4th District as opposed to making a statewide bid.

Whoever the Democratic nominee, the general election will be a tough climb for the party in the red state.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. New polling shows a dead heat between Romney and Gingrich in the GOP presidential race, two new Democratic names pop up in the Texas Senate race, Cuomo is flying high in New York, and Brunner wants to debate in Missouri ... or does he? Here's today's rundown:

8) Mitt Romney stopped by Letterman to do the top ten list Monday night. Number 3: "I can do a lot, but even I can't fix the Indianapolis Colts."

7) There is an updated redistricting plan in Mississippi. The AP: "Federal judges on Monday released a plan to update Mississippi's four congressional districts, which decreases the number of split counties from eight to four, the secretary of state said. The judges say their plan preserves to core constituencies of each district."

6) According to state statute 8.03, Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis., could technically appear on the ballot for both vice president and his congressional seat.

The No. 1 thing Mitt Romney would like say to the American people?

"It's a hairpiece," Romney said after counting down the Top Ten Things Mitt Romney Would Like to Say to the American People on The Late Show with David Letterman on Monday.

Watch clips of his appearance below.

And don't miss today's Must See Moment at 1:10 when Conan O'Brien presents a look back at the life of Kim Jong Il:

Take our late-night poll after the jump...

If you haven't been following the events over the past few days surrounding the Indiana Democratic Party, you've missed some pretty good inside baseball politics -- but more importantly, in the scope of statewide races, also a bit about Indiana Democratic gubernatorial candidate and likely nominee John Gregg, who was right in the middle of everything. What you need to know about the whole thing:

The background: Last week, Dan Parker, who had served as chair for seven years, stepped down. Howey Politics reported that Parker had been asked to step down by Gregg so a chair could be installed who was closer to him.

Gregg initially wanted Tim Jeffers, a former aide of his, to become chair. But Jeffers reportedly did not have the votes he would have needed, so the race evolved into a two-person matchup between Joel Miller, backed by a base who is not exactly on the same page with the state party's leadership, and Sarah Riordan, who was Parker's choice. The Evansville Courier & Press has a great roundup of what happened next, including the effort to keep Parker on, which meant calling a vote among all 30 members of the state central committee, enough of whom opted to reverse Parker's resignation.

Gregg's involvement: Howey's story sums up a twist -- which was Gregg's decision to essentially do a 180:

What stunned observers was that governor candidate John Gregg was present and actually stated that Parker should be allowed to remain. Having set the process in motion that would see Parker resign, both the Marion and Lake County chairs were described as "furious" that Gregg would leave them "hanging" and that he would now aid efforts to save Parker.

The outcome: Some Democrats have expressed their displeasure with Gregg, and some have expressed their displeasure with Parker. Those are developments to keep in mind as the gubernatorial race moves forward.

Just about everyone with even a casual eye on North Carolina politics over the last year fully expects former Charlotte Republican Mayor Pat McCrory to seek a rematch against Democratic Gov. Bev Perdue next year. On Monday, he said with full certainty he will run, in an interview with the AP:

"I am convinced that now is the time to run for governor and bring the changes to a broken government and hopefully generate an environment that allows our economy to grow in North Carolina," McCrory said, adding "I just think it's important for me before the holiday season to let (the public) know I'm 100 percent committed to this effort."

Perdue is arguably the most vulnerable Democratic governor facing reelection in 2012. McCrory has been gearing up for a bid for months, raising money and hinting in video announcements to supporters that he intends to make a bid. Democrats are defending eight governor's mansions next year while Republicans are defending just three.

Perdue defeated McCrory by just three points in 2008.

2:53 p.m. CORRECTION: The previous version of this post incorrectly indicated the marital status of Christiana. He is engaged.

In a surprise move, Pennsylvania Republican state lawmaker Jim Christiana on Monday announced he will not run for Congress next year in one of the state's newly drawn congressional districts, telling supporters in a letter he didn't want to put his fiance through the rigors of a congressional campaign or leave his work unfinished in Harrisburg.

In his letter, Christiana, who also cited a desire to fight for a conservative agenda in state government, said after talking with "wiser voices," he determined a congressional campaign would put an "unreasonable strain" on his wife.

"I never want a professional life goal or personal ambition to trump my most important relationship," he wrote, in a letter obtained by Hotline On Call.

The Pittsburgh suburb native had strongly indicated for months that he planned to run, and his decision not to could throw a wrench in Republican plans to win back a favorable district in western Pennsylvania.

Christiana was expected to run in the state's newly crafted 12th District, which wraps around Pittsburgh and extends east into Johnstown, the late Rep. John Murtha's longtime political base. The redrawn lines, set for final approval in the Pennsylvania legislature on Monday, were meant to both pit two Democratic incumbents against each other in a primary - Reps. Jason Altmire and Mark Critz -- and give Republicans a strong chance to win in the fall.

It's official: ESPN analyst Craig James is running for Senate in Texas. Roy Bailey, a GOP fundraiser and friend of the former SMU football star, told the AP that James will officially file for the race on Monday.

Thanks to his celebrity in the sports world, James first foray into politics has generated a lot of buzz. But as Reid Wilson wrote earlier, James' success on the gridiron and as an announcer has not translated to wide name recognition in the state.

James now faces the challenge of raising enough money to compete in the April primary. His late entry into the race and the presence of three top tier Republican candidates -- Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, former Texas Solicitor General Ted Cruz and former Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert -- make James a long shot to capture the Republican nomination.

Dewhurst is considered the favorite in the Republican field. Retired Army Lt. Gen. Ricardo Sanchez dropped out of the race last week, leaving Democrats without a credible candidate.

There is striking overlap between those obsessed with politics and those obsessed with sports. If you enjoy the competition of the former, you're probably attracted to the competition of the latter. So when the two worlds combine, it attracts an inordinate amount of attention.

Well, don't start spilling ink on Craig James's behalf just yet.

The ESPN college football anchor and former standout running back at Southern Methodist University is contemplating a bid for Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison's, R-Texas, open seat. ESPN's announcement on Friday that James would take a leave to explore a bid has generated plenty of headlines, both in Texas media and on sports blogs around the country.

But with just over four months to go until the April primary, James is going to need to break a big run, and in a hurry.

That's because, despite the attention he's getting in the sports world, few Texans actually know who James is. A survey conducted in July by Mike Baselice, an Austin-based Republican pollster who knows Texas better than anyone, showed just 8 percent of Texas voters had a positive impression of James, while 8 percent had a negative view of him.

Baselice has polled for Texas Gov. Rick Perry and for Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, the front-runner in the Senate Republican field. A Baselice poll conducted for Dewhurst earlier this year showed him leading the GOP field by a huge margin.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Romney gets the backing of the Des Moines Register, Parker is back in as Indiana Democratic Party chairman, EMILY's List moves Bysiewicz up to full endorsement status, and "Choose or Lose" is replaced at MTV. Here's today's rundown:

7) Say goodbye to MTV's "Choose or Lose" and hello to "Power of 12."

6) Former Rep. Nick Lampson, D-Texas, will make his comeback bid official today according to a Democratic source, filing paperwork to seek the 14th District seat of retiring GOP Rep. Ron Paul. A casualty of last decade's redistricting, the former congressman's entrance gives Democrats a strong candidate in the Galveston district that picked up new African-American Democratic voters and part of his former district - but that was in the San Antonio court-drawn map that's now in limbo pending the Supreme Court hearing in early January. No one knows now what that district will ultimately look like.

5) EMILY's List is moving former Connecticut Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz from "On the List" to full endorsement status. As we've noted, the Nutmeg State Democratic race is the one contest dividing the DSCC, who's backing Rep. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., and the abortion rights group.

Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul appeared on The Tonight Show on Friday where he told Jay Leno what he thinks of the GOP field. Watch to see what he had to say.

Don't miss today's Must See Moment at 3:06 when Leno shows how President Obama's prestige has tarnished during his presidency:

Take our late-night poll after the jump...

What we at The Hotline learned this week:

-- Herman Cain was rightly criticized for using his White House bid as a vehicle for book sales. When Newt Gingrich takes the weekend off for a book signing at Mt. Vernon and a French horn concert just two weeks before the Iowa caucuses, it's hard not to compare the two.

-- Mitt Romney has played the expectations game masterfully since entering the presidential race this summer, but with Iowa looming and the nomination his for the taking, Romney's campaign is finally playing to win instead of playing not to lose. In the span of 24 hours leading into this weekend, Romney launched substantial ad campaigns in the first three nominating states - Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina - while his super PAC, Restore Our Future, made a massive $300,000 ad buy in the fourth primary state of Florida.

Romney is now playing for keeps in all four states, and the risk of that strategy - i.e., the media coverage of an under-performance in Iowa or South Carolina - is far outweighed by the potential reward of strong showings in all four January contests, which would give him a head of steam entering February. If that happens, it becomes academic: Nevada, Michigan and Arizona are February's three major contests, and Romney is favored to win all three states. We may not be in for a long slog, after all.

-- A new USA Today/Gallup poll released this week showed President Obama leading Romney by just 1 point among registered voters nationwide, while Obama's lead swelled to 6 points against Gingrich. But how predictive are election horse-race polls 11 months before voters cast their ballots for the next president? According to experts at a briefing for reporters hosted by Gallup on Wednesday in Washington, not very.

Temple University professor Christopher Wlezien has been studying the relationship between survey data, particularly trial heats and presidential approval ratings, and the eventual outcome of the election for decades. He said we are approaching a critical time: the polls become far more predictive during the first and second quarters of an election year. Wlezien urged reporters and consumers of these surveys to "think of the first 75 days" of 2012 as they monitor Obama's approval rating and his standing against the eventual Republican nominee.

-- If Gingrich hopes to win Florida, he'll have to overcome some challenges. Restore Our Future launched a $300,000 TV ad campaign in the state attacking the former House Speaker's record. Gingrich's campaign hopes his new state director, Jose Mallea will lift the former Speaker's profile in the state. Still, Gingrich can't seem to shake questions about his stance on Medicare, both in debate this week and on the campaign trail.

Coming out of the last debate before the Iowa Caucuses, the presidential race will again dominate the Sunday shows this weekend.

Former Massachusetts Republican Gov. Mitt Romney will make his first Sunday show appearance in almost two years as he appears on Fox News Sunday. Romney is beginning a much more aggressive media campaign, and also has planned appearances on Monday on MSNBC's Morning Joe and CBS's Late Show with David Letterman.

The 2012 talk will continue with South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, who just endorsed Romney, making an appearance on NBC's Meet the Press. Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., will also be on Meet the Press. CNN's State of the Union will have former Utah Republican Governor Jon Huntsman.

House Speaker John Boehner will be on Meet the Press and give an update on the budget battle going on in Washington.

ABC's This Week begins its series called "Great American Debates." Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wisc., and Washington Post's George Will will debate former Labor Secretary Robert Reich and Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass., over the issue "There is Too Much Government in My Life."

State of the Union will address the exit from Iraq with former Envoy to Iraq Paul Bremer and former Joint Chiefs Vice Chair retired General James Cartwright.

Check out the full listings after the jump.

A tentative agreement between Texas Democrats and Republicans has been struck to move the state's primaries from March 6 to April 3, presenting some intriguing implications for the GOP Senate primary.

Last week's Supreme Court decision to grant a stay on an interim redistricting map in the state thrust the primary calender into a state of uncertainty. Texas is slated to hold its primary early in the year and the fight over the new map threatened to disrupt the normal timetable, prompting speculation the primary could be split into two, with unaffected statewide primaries going in March and affected races going later, or, as now appears likely, everything being moved.

What does it all mean for the GOP Senate primary?

If the deal stands, it means another month for underdog candidates Ted Cruz and former Dallas Tom Leppert to build name ID and pick up more steam. But lengthening the race by a month also stretches out the TV battle. Frontrunning Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, who is flush with cash, has already gone up on the air (as has Leppert) while Cruz still hasn't. Dewhurst and Leppert are also both putting a substantial amount of their own money into their campaigns, something Cruz can't do.

So while Cruz -- whose strategy appears to be holding any buys until later in the race -- might not have to get up on TV as quickly as he planned, he'd also face another month during which time the two better-funded candidates could continue to raise their profile by staying on TV.

The deal also means the presidential primary will take place on the same day as all of the other primaries. Whether Gov. Rick Perry will still be in the race at that point is uncertain.

If there is a runoff -- which would be triggered if no candidate achieves over 50 percent in the primary -- it would be held on June 5.

Last week, my colleague Kevin Brennan took a closer look at Jeff Fitzgerald's Senate candidacy in Wisconsin. The Republican state Assembly Speaker is the lesser-known, but potentially formidable candidate in a field that includes a former governor and congressman. Part of Fitzgerald's strength lies in his close ties to Gov. Scott Walker and his involvement in the first round of recalls earlier this year. As the fight over the signature gathering process in the recall effort against Walker heats up, Fitzgerald is in the mix once again. The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel:

Jeff Fitzgerald also said Thursday he was introducing a bill to make it a felony to sign a recall petition more than once, though the bill would not affect the current recall effort against Walker. The crime would carry a fine of up to $10,000 and up to 31/2 years in prison.

Even though his bill won't affect the current recall effort, it shows a sense of involvement in the current battle. Look for Fitzgerald to pitch himself as a strong party loyalist as the recall process heats up.

"That's the message that I'm going to be putting forward," he told Hotline On Call last week. "That I'm the guy who just delivered. I'm the guy who helped Governor Walker get there."

Democrats have collected signatures at a very fast pace, all but assuring that a recall election will be triggered. But that does not mean a partisan battle over the validity of the signatures submitted won't happen first.

David Letterman last night joked about presidential candidate Ron Paul's recent surge in Iowa polls.

He said, "Remember when Mitt says, 'OK, my gloves are coming off'? And then Ron Paul said, 'Alright, well, my teeth are coming out.'?" Well, it's paid off. Letterman presented a segment, "Why Voters Are Turning to Ron Paul" explaining the surge.

And don't Miss Today's Must See Moment at 2:34 when Jimmy Kimmel presents "This Year in Unnecessary Censorship":

Take our late-night poll after the jump...

After months of the most volatile presidential nominating campaign in recent history, the first voting is nearly ready to begin. National Journal's Political Insiders on both sides of the aisle are predicting a Jan. 3 Iowa Caucus win by either former House Speaker Newt Gingrich or Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas. Few, however, believe either man will go on to capture the 2012 nomination.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Lots of kumbaya at the final Republican presidential debate before Iowa, a court upholds Illinois Democrats' congressional map, Dan Liljenquist inches closer to a Hatch challenge and Romney gets a big boost from Nikki Haley. Here's today's rundown:

9) Rep. Colleen Hanabusa, D-Hawaii, tells Roll Call she will not take sides in the Hawaii Democratic Senate primary.

8) EMILY's List has put two more female congressional candidates "On the List" -- Honolulu City Councilwoman Tulsi Gabbard in the open Hawaii's 2nd District and Bernalillo Count Commissioner Michelle Lujan Grisham in the open New Mexico's 1st District. While both are in safe Democratic seats, each face uphill fights in their competitive primaries.

7) Former Rep. Tom Perriello, D-Va., has a new gig: President and CEO of the Center for American Progress Action Fund.

6) While Wisconsin recall activists announced on Thursday that they had nearly collected enough signatures to trigger a recall election against Wisconsin GOP Gov. Scott Walker, the governor had an announcement of his own: he has raised over $5.1 million and has over $3 million in the bank.

5) According to the latest Allstate/National Journal Heartland Monitor poll, 44 percent say they approve of President Obama's job performance, while 49 percent disapprove.

A bit of encouraging news for the president in the survey: Thirty-eight percent say that the country is "significantly worse off because of the policies" Obama has pursued, while 11 percent say that the nation is "significantly better off." But another 43 percent say that while the country is not yet significantly better off because of his agenda, it is "beginning to move in the right direction."

Rep. Geoff Davis, R-Ky., announced Thursday evening he would not seek reelection in 2012, becoming the first Republican this cycle to retire outright rather than seek higher office.

"In order to devote more time to my family, I have decided not to seek re-election to the U.S. House of Representatives," Davis said in a statement. "I am grateful that I live in a country where a boy like me, growing up with little hope, could walk a path by God's grace that has allowed me to encounter His peace, the joy of true love, and service at the highest levels of our elected national government. Truly, we are blessed in this Republic."

In his fourth term, the 53-year-old Davis was elected in 2004 in closely-watched open seat contest that pitted him against Democrat Nick Clooney, a local columnist and commentator and the father of actor George Clooney. He won the seat by 10 points, and had been reelected easily since. He serves on the House Ways and Means Committee, where he is chairman of the Human Resources subcommittee.

Rep. Jim Matheson, D-Utah, will run in Utah's newly created 4th District, he announced on Thursday, a move that ends speculation over the possibility of a statewide bid.

"I am excited to announce I will be running for re-election in the 4th Congressional District. The political boundaries of the district may be arbitrary, but the people, the communities and their priorities are real and well-known to me," Matheson said in a statement.

Rumors have swirled over the past few months over whether Matheson would run in his own, re-carved 2nd district, which became more Republican after redistricting , run for governor, or run in the 4th.

In his announcement, Matheson blasted the partisan redistricting process as he explained his decision to move.

"Most of us watched with disgust the political games played during the redistricting process," he said. "When the Utah legislature completed its work, the Congressional District I have had the privilege of representing no longer exists, and its citizens are spread among all four new districts."

The new 4th Distinct includes southwestern Salt Lake, a populous area. State Rep. Carl Wimmer, who has already been endorsed by the Club For Growth, is the early frontrunner in the race. Wimmer wasted no time going after Matheson after his announcement on Thursday.

"Is 'Bail-out' Jim Matheson actually willing to carpet-bag in order to maintain power? I look forward to this race," he tweeted.

State Rep. Stephen Sandstrom, Saratoga Springs Mayor Mia Love and attorney Jay Cobb are also seeking the GOP nomination.

Organizers have collected over 500,000 signatures in the effort to trigger a recall election against Wisconsin GOP Gov. Scott Walker, the group spearheading the effort announced on Thursday.

United Wisconsin announced that it has collected 507,533 signatures in four weeks. 540,208 valid signatures must be submitted to the state to trigger a recall election.

"The people of Wisconsin are not buying [Walker's] lies and are moving at record pace to stop Walker's destruction and recall him from office," said United Wisconsin Executive Director Meagan Mahaffey.

The pace at which the group is collecting signatures all but ensures that a recall election will be triggered. Party organizers on both sides have been gearing up for a race, and Walker recently staffed up his campaign team in anticipation of a race. He's also been up on TV airing ads.

United Wisconsin also announced they are upping their signature collection goal to 720,277. One the Jan. 17 signature collection deadline passes, The state Government Accountability Board must verify all the signatures and collecting more than the 540,000+ needed will provide a cushion, as its a foregone conclusion that some signatures will be disqualified.

Sen. Ben Nelson, D-Neb., is experiencing a barrage of attacks from Republicans this holiday season aimed at tarring his record and deterring him from running for reelection.

Crossroads GPS is dropping more than $500,000 against Nelson in the state's two largest media markets. Americans for Prosperity has also purchased $120,000 on cable for ads between Dec. 14 and 25th. Adding fuel to the fire, Nelson's likely Republican opponent, Attorney General Jon Bruning, launched an ad of his own earlier this month, in which he contrasts himself with Nelson.

On Wednesday, the National Right to Life PAC and the Nebraska Right to Life PAC announced they will oppose Nelson for reelection in 2012. Nebraska Right To Life endorsed the Democrat in 2006.

Meanwhile, reinforcements from his allies, which poured in earlier in the year, have been in limited supply as of late. Majority PAC made a five figure buy on Nelson's behalf earlier in the month, but beyond that, he has not seen a wave of outside help.

And if that's not enough, buzz about a possible run from popular GOP Gov. Dave Heineman has also ramped up. That it has speaks to the relative weakness of the GOP field, but also to the potential that Nelson might have to run against a very formidable opponent.

Quite the lump of coal in Nelson's stocking.

Three separate polls released this week suggest congressional incumbents in key swing states and districts should be worried about their reelection prospects, less than eleven months from Election Day 2012. In particular, the data show troubling signs for GOP incumbents.

The latest poll from the Pew Research Center shows frustration directed not only at incumbents in general, but at respondents' own members of Congress as well.

Sixty-seven percent of adults said they do not want to see most representatives reelected while just 20 percent said they do, in the Pew poll. That 20 percent figure is very low: Consider that even in October of the wave election years in 2010 and 2006 the re-elect number was 35 and 34 percent, respectively.

Respondents were more generous when it came to their own representatives, but even there, cause for incumbent concern is in plain sight. Fifty percent said they want to see their own member reelected, while 33 percent said they do not. That's on par with an October 2010 survey showing 49 percent wanted to see their member reelected. Republicans netted 63 seats in last year's midterms.

While the poll shows frustration directed at the leadership in both parties, Republicans received more blame. Of the record high 50 percent who said the 112th Congress has accomplished less than others in the recent past, 40 percent said Republican leaders are more to blame while 23 percent said Democratic leaders are more to blame. Thirty-two percent said both are to blame.

According to the most recent United Technologies/National Journal Congressional Connection poll, only 31 percent of adults surveyed said the representative from their district is doing a good enough job to deserve reelection while 49 percent said it is time for someone new. Those numbers should raise alarm bells for any sitting member in a swing state or district.

North Carolina Republican congressional candidate Vernon Robinson is going up on air during tonight's debate with an ad airing on Fox slamming not just President Obama, but Mitt Romney as well, whom the ad calls a "cowardly sell-out."

Bemoaning liberal attacks on the family, the ad shows unflattering photos of Obama as well as a particularly disturbing image of what appears to be an Occupy Wall Street protestor defecating on an American flag.

"In three short years, this man has destroyed the national economy and driven the national debt to over $15 trillion," says the narrator. "Barack Obama has done to the Constitution what his filthy, liberal friends have done to the American flag.

"He's done it with the complicity of cowardly, sell-out Republicans like the one who said he hopes the moderates will control the Senate, not the Jesse Helmses," the ad continues, as a photo of Romney appears on screen.

Jon Stewart had a message for Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney on The Daily Show Wednesday.

"You're the guy who is so far to the left in his own party that this afternoon Fox News -- this is true -- accidentally used a photo of Barack Obama where a picture of you should go," Stewart said. "And let me tell you something, that's not because you guys look alike."

Don't Miss Today's Must See Moment at 2:27 where Herman Cain tells Barbara Walters which cabinet position he would like:

Take our late-night poll after the jump...

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Durant is shaking up his Senate campaign leadership in Michigan, Ohio Republicans and Democrats finally agree on a congressional map, EMILY's List endorses four more House candidates and Romney and Gingrich get ready to rumble one more time this evening in Iowa. Here's today's rundown:

8) Mike Castle and Christine O'Donnell finally agree on something!

7) Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Ore., and House Budget Chairman Paul Ryan, R-Wis., released a bipartisan plan to revamp Medicare on Wednesday, the New York Times reports.

It's a significant moment in the debate over entitlement spending and Medicare, which has been a hot button issue in 2011, with both parties trying to cast the other as enemies of the plan. Ryan's new plan is now very similar to Mitt Romney's proposal and Wyden's participation undermines the Democratic argument that GOP is trying to rob seniors of their health care.

6) EMILY's List announced it is endorsing four Congressional candidates. They are: Rep. Betty Sutton (OH-16); Tarryl Clark (MN-08); Elizabeth Esty (CT-05); and Dina Titus (NV-01). Sutton is only the second incumbent to be endorsed again by EMILY's List this cycle.

Sutton's campaign released the results of a poll conducted in October by Mike Bocian of GBA Strategies that showed Sutton and Republican Rep. Jim Renacci, who face a showdown in the new 16th District, tied at 45 percent among likely voters.

5) Good news for the NRCC: Democrats and Republicans finally struck a deal in the Buckeye State on Wednesday, avoiding a ballot referendum on a congressional map proposal Democrats did not like. The state also avoided the possibility of holding two primaries in 2012 and will now hold a single March 6 primary. The bill passed the House and the Senate and now goes to the governor for his signature. The Columbus Dispatch has the details: "The bill includes a new Republican-drawn congressional map that -- aside from 800 people shifted in Franklin County to place state Rep. Ted Celeste's Grandview Heights home into the new 3rd District -- is identical to the map that Democrats rejected in early November, when they said it did little to improve competitiveness."

It's worth noting that the Democratic signature collection process to trigger a referendum faced an uphill climb and relied solely on volunteers down the stretch, with not much time remaining to secure the requisite number of signatures.

New York City Council Speaker Christine Quinn has a slight edge among Democrats in her bid to become the Big Apple's first female mayor in 2013 -- if NYPD Commissioner Ray Kelly does not run -- according to a new Quinnipiac University poll released early Thursday.

Asked which candidate New York City voters would like to see as their next mayor, 24 percent say Kelly, while 18 percent choose Quinn, who would also become the city's first openly gay mayor, if elected. Thirteen percent prefer Brooklyn Borough President Marty Markowitz, and 7 percent choose former City Comptroller Bill Thompson, the Democratic nominee in 2009. Seven percent also favor embattled City Comptroller John Liu, with 6 percent for Public Advocate Bill de Blasio, and 5 percent for Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer.

Among registered Democrats -- the primary will be restricted only to those registered with the party -- Quinn leads with 21 percent of the vote, followed by Kelly and Markowitz, who are tied with 16 percent each. Thompson earned the support of 10 percent of Democrats.

When those who supported Kelly in the initial ballot are reallocated according to their second choices, Quinn leads with 23 percent of the vote (25 percent of Democrats). Markowitz is second with 16 percent (18 percent of Democrats).

In endorsing Quinn earlier this week, former Democratic Mayor Ed Koch said he had urged Kelly to run, but Kelly told him he would not be pursuing a mayoral bid.

It hasn't been the best week of press for Rob Cornilles, the Republican nominee in next month's special election in Oregon's 1st District.

On Tuesday the Portland Oregonian dug into the details of some hiccups Cornilles's sports marketing company has experienced, including a federal tax lien and legal questions he faced about the company's business model. On Wednesday, the Willamette Week published a story that quoted industry figures casting doubt on some of the claims he's made over the prominence of his business.

Cornilles hit back on Wednesday in a letter to supporters, calling out the Democratic nominee, former state Sen. Suzanne Bonamici, citing a report on a conservative blog that suggesting that a Bonamici consultant was calling Cornilles's employees.

"One of my opponent's tactics has been to call my current Game Face employees at work, pretending to be somebody they aren't, then dig for something they can feed to the Portland media. Their objective, seemingly, is to call into question why my business is leaner today than in the past. This would seem obvious, but let me explain because it further underscores that my opponent is totally oblivious to how the private sector really works," he wrote.

"Oregon voters just can't trust Rob Cornilles," said Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokeswoman Jennifer Crider. "Two independent media reports this week reveal that Rob Cornilles is dishonest about his business record from exaggerated and ever changing job creation claims to failing to pay taxes."

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has reserved over $1 million on cable and broadcast television through the end of January, signaling that they are taking no chances in the Democratic-leaning district. The election will take place on Jan. 31.

The Wisconsin Government Accountability Board has ruled that suspicious signatures in the movement to recall Wisconsin GOP Gov. Scott Walker won't be struck down without a challenge so long as they are correctly dated and include an in-state address. The AP:

Suspicious signatures will be noted when the Government Accountability Board reviews the petitions, but reviewers will look to see that signatures are accompanied by a Wisconsin address and are dated as having been signed during the circulation period, board elections specialist David Buerger said.

"We will flag them, but we will not strike them without challenge," Buerger said after being asked whether Mickey Mouse's signature would be counted. He noted that in previous recall petitions, Adolf Hitler's name was struck because the address given was in Germany, not because of the name itself.

Already, events in the recall effort against Walker suggest the potential for a nasty partisan fight early next year over the validity of submitted signatures. The state Republican Party has launched a website to serve as a resource for individuals to report suspicious signatures. And last week, one man claimed to have signed 80 petitions, sparking Republican alarm.

North Carolina Democratic Gov. Bev Perdue announced on Tuesday that she will appear with President Obama when he travels to Ft. Bragg later this morning, ending the uncertainty over whether she would be on hand for the visit to her home state.

"I look forward to joining president Obama tomorrow to honor our troops and thank them for their service to our country and our state," Perdue said in a statement, according to the Raleigh News & Observer.

The last time Obama made a swing through the state, Perdue was not present (she was overseas on a trade mission in Asia.)

North Carolina will be an important swing state for the president's reelection team and the Democratic National Convention will be held in Charlotte next year. So it's difficult to imagine how Perdue can, in any effective way, dodge the president. Opponents will tie her to the president no matter what she does, so she's best served to appear with him when she can, especially since he has a fighting chance in the state.

During a recent interview with the Des Moines Register, Republican presidential candidate Rick Perry stumbled over Supreme Court facts and called energy company Solyndra a country. If only he had checked out some books from the newspaper's library before the interview. Watch to see which books Jay Leno "noticed" were in the DMR's library behind the governor of Texas.

Don't miss today's Must See Moment at 1:23 when David Letterman presents a a highlight of President Obama's 60 Minutes interview:

Take our late-night poll after the jump...

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Christine O'Donnell backs Romney -- and he has some nice words for her as well. A new Pennsylvania congressional map shores up vulnerable Republicans, Texas Republicans and Democrats strike a deal over extending the filing deadline and Romney has some choice words for Gingrich in a new interview. Here's today's rundown:

9) I'm not a witch ... I'm a Mitt Romney supporter: Christine O'Donnell endorsed Romney late Tuesday. The most interesting thing about the endorsement was the Romney campaign's robust and warm response to the nod. "Christine recognizes that excessive government threatens us now and threatens future generations, and I am pleased to have her on my team," Romney said in a statement. It's a sign of the worry that he continues to be viewed skeptically by conservatives. O'Donnell still has some loyalists and any perceived slights against her would only hurt Romney's standing.

8) No other Republican Senate candidate has had to withstand the blistering, sustained criticism from the right more than former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson this cycle. But he's catching a break, as he's received the endorsement of Mike Huckabee, the popular former governor of Arkansas, whose conservative cache should help Thompson.

7) Former Libertarian presidential candidate and GOP congressman Bob Barr won't be seeking a comeback bid to the House. The AP reports that Barr has opted against challenging freshman Rep. Tom Graves, R-Ga., in a primary--- something he had openly entertained.

6) Retiring Rep. Dennis Cardoza, D-Calif., takes yet another dig at President Obama, blasting him as an arrogant "professor."

Republicans have said the name of their redistricting game in 2012 was to shore up vulnerable incumbents as much as endangering Democrats. And in Pennsylvania, Republicans drew a map that protects all of their vulnerable members.

The map draws Democratic-heavy cities in northeast Pennsylvania and Democratic-friendly parts of the Philadelphia suburbs into Democratic districts, making the seats of Reps. Jim Gerlach, R-Pa., Pat Meehan, R-Pa., Lou Barletta, R-Pa., and Tom Marino, R-Pa., more conservative. It merges the western Pennsylvania districts of Democratic Reps. Jason Altmire and Mark Critz, forcing them into a primary in a R +6 district Republicans believe they can pick up. Rep. Mike Kelly's northwestern Pennsylvania seat gets a little more Republican.

Barletta, one of the most vulnerable Republicans under the old map, benefits the most from the redistricting. His gerrymandered seat is now solidly Republican, and it would be tough for a Democrat to unseat him. Democratic Rep. Tim Holden picked the Democratic cities of Scranton and Wilkes-Barre from Barletta, which should shore up his competitive seat.

Gerlach and Meehan currently represent Democratic-leaning seats; the new lines would make both districts R+1 seats, according to GOP operatives. Meehan's southeastern 7th District becomes one of the most gerrymandered in the state in order to shore up his base, reaching out into Lancaster now while snaking through Chester County and into Berks County.

With both the legislature and the governor's mansion in GOP hands, the map is expected to easily move through the state House and Senate this week, and head to Republican Gov. Tom Corbett's desk for his signature.

After a year and a half in the anchor's seat, Christiane Amanpour will leave ABC's This Week, the Sunday political affairs show, she said in a statement on Tuesday. She will be replaced by her predecessor, George Stephanopoulos, according to a network spokesman.

Amanpour will return to international news, hosting specials for ABC in addition to a weekday global affairs program on CNN international. "This role is groundbreaking, bold and very different! I am thrilled and honored," Amanpour said in a statement.

ABC News President Ben Sherwood said that Amanpour "had a remarkable year" at This Week, noting that she will now act as Chief Global Affairs officer for the network, in addition to her duties at CNN. "We're thrilled to work out this arrangement," Sherwood said.

Amanpour's departure from the Sunday morning line-up was long expected, with the show's ratings in decline - This Week has increasingly fallen behind CBS's Face The Naion for its once-steady second-place spot during Amanpour's tenure. Rumors of her misery anchoring a domestic politics show were widespread. "I am looking forward to getting back into the field to report stories on global issues that matter greatly to the American people," Amanpour said in a statement.

Amanpour left CNN to take over This Week in March of 2010 after Stephanopoulos left to host Good Morning America. An ABC spokesman confirmed that Stephanopoulos will continue to host GMA during the week, in addition to his Sunday duties.

Amanpour's departure was first reported by the New York Times.

CBS News' Face The Nation will be expanding from 30 minutes to an hour beginning in April, host Bob Schieffer announced on Sunday. In an interview with Hotline On Call on Tuesday, Schieffer said that CBS may begin test driving the format beginning as soon as January.

Schieffer will be doing double duty during the upcoming presidential coming primary and caucus season. He'll be working with White House correspondent Norah O'Donnell in Iowa. Face the Nation will be broadcasting on location in New Hampshire on the Sunday before the Jan. 10 primary, where the program may be an hour long.

The show has improved its ratings over the past year, often running a close second to NBC's Meet The Press. Last week, Face the Nation tied Meet The Press in ratings and had a larger total audience, but Meet the Press is twice as long in its current format and re-airs episodes during the afternoon, so it's not a perfect apples to apples comparison.

Schieffer noted that Meet the Press was third in the ratings battle before becoming an hour long program in 1992 and it was "a matter of months before" that show became number one. He's hoping the expansion to an hour will help the show, which he has hosted since 1991.

ESPN college football analyst Craig James will file to run as a Republican by Thursday's filing deadline in the race to replace retiring Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, R-Texas, according to the Dallas Morning News.

James had flirted with a run for months, but few expected him to actually get into the race.

James starred on the football field as a running back for Southern Methodist University in the early 1980's. He played for the NFL's New England Patriots for five seasons and has worked in broadcasting since retiring from football.

It's hard to view James as anything but a long shot in a race that already features three established Republican candidates -- Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, former Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert and former state Solicitor General Ted Cruz.

But James will enter the race as a well-known figure to some Texas voters thanks to his football and broadcasting careers. In college, James teamed with Eric Dickerson to lead SMU's vaunted "Pony Express" rushing attack.

Some college football fans in Texas also might associate James with the 2009 firing of former Texas Tech head coach Mike Leach. One of the factors in Leach's firing was his alleged mistreatment of James' son, who was a wide receiver for the Red Raiders at the time.

Updated at 2:18 p.m.

It's not even 2012 yet, but several underdog GOP Senate challengers have an eye on an election taking place this afternoon that could foreshadow the power of the grassroots to upset the establishment.

The race to become Senate GOP Conference Vice Chair is a two-man competition between freshman Sens. Roy Blunt, R-Mo., and Ron Johnson, R-Wis. The two candidates' backgrounds are largely the reason Senate candidates are lining up behind Johnson. He's a former businessman and still new to politics. Blunt is ingrained in politics and Washington: He served in the House for over a decade where he was the GOP whip for six years.

The contest has become something of a rallying cry for conservatives -- with prominent figures like Erick Erickson and Sen. Jim DeMint, R-S.C., supporting for Johnson. Senate challengers are also weighing in.

In Michigan, Cornerstone Schools co-founder Clark Durant, who is running to the right of former GOP Rep. Pete Hoekstra, came out in support of Johnson on Monday.

"The Republican members of the U.S. Senate will send a clear message to every hard-working American that real change is coming to Washington by elevating Senator Johnson," he said in a statement.

Nebraska Treasurer Don Stenberg, who is trying to parlay support from DeMint and Sen. Mike Lee, R-Utah, into a stronger challenge to the right of Attorney General Jon Bruning, also expressed his support for Johnson on Monday.

"If I were a United States Senator today, I would vote for Senator Ron Johnson in the race for Vice Chairman of the Senate Republican Conference," Stenberg said.

Even more telling: The three GOP candidates running against Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill, would not back Blunt, even though he represents the Show-Me State. They are not backing Johnson either, but the implicit snub of Blunt says a great deal about the trajectory of that GOP primary.

During the Republican presidential debate on Saturday, Mitt Romney challenged Rick Perry to a $10,000 bet over the former Massachusetts governor's position on individual mandates.

"And Perry said, "'I'm not a betting man,'" Conan O'Brien said on Monday. "Perry also said, 'I'm not a spelling man, a reading man or an adding man.'"

Don't miss today's Must See Moment at 1:47 when David Letterman spoofs Perry's ad that goes after the "war on religion":

Take our late-night poll after the jump...

CORRECTION: The previous version of this post incorrectly indicated the number of members being targeted by the NRCC. Nine members will face robocalls or web ads.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Romney and Gingrich go after each other in New Hampshire, the NRCC targets Democrats in union-heavy districts over the Keystone XL pipeline, the latest United Technologies/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll shows some serious warning signs for congressional incumbents and Cain says Romney's $10,000 bet comment was not the end of the world. Here's today's rundown:

9) Don't worry, Mitt Romney. Herman Cain says the $10,000 bet comment wasn't "all that big of a gaffe."

8) Democrats have landed a top recruit to run for the seat of retiring Rep. Jerry Costello, D-Ill, in former St. Clair County Schools Superintendent Brad Harriman. Harriman had long been testing the waters, but will release a video to supporters today making his entrance official. Iraq War veteran Chris Miller is also seeking the Democratic nomination, and Republican Jason Plummer, the 2010 lieutenant governor nominee, and former Belleville Mayor Rodger Cook, are both seeking their party's nod in what could become a nasty fight. The district leans Democratic, but the GOP sees it as a top pick up opportunity.

7) Republican Jackie Walorski, who very narrowly lost in Indiana's 2nd District to Democratic Rep. Joe Donnelly in 2010 is making a second go at the seat in 2012. And she says the issue of debt in the district has nearly pulled even with unemployment as the most important issue in the race. "I would tell you that in the second district, the issue of debt is paralleling, at this point, the issue of unemployment," she told Hotline On Call in an interview on Monday. Walorski won't be facing Donnelly again, as he's running for the Senate. Walorski is likely to face Democrat Brendan Mullen in a district that has become more GOP-friendly following redistricting.

6) Missouri Republican Jacob Turk, who lost by nine points to Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver in 2010, will seek a rematch in 2012 in the redrawn 5th District.

5) North Dakota Senate Minority Leader Ryan Taylor made his gubernatorial bid official on Monday. He's the first Democrat in the race in which GOP Gov. Jack Dalrymple is the clear favorite.

4) The NRCC is hitting House Democrats in union-heavy areas, launching robocalls against nine members, urging them to vote in favor of the payroll tax/Keystone pipeline package. It's about jobs, say the calls. "This week, she has a chance to vote for a bipartisan jobs bill that would create up to 130,000 union-backed jobs at a pipeline that would bring oil from Canada to the U.S. However, Sutton's strongest ally in Washington, President Obama, is pressuring her to vote against bringing these jobs to America," says the call against Rep. Betty Sutton, D-Ohio. The members being targeted with calls: Jason Altmire (PA-04), Ben Chandler (KY-06), Mark Critz (PA-12), Dave Loebsack (IA-02), Michael Michaud (ME-02), Collin Peterson (MN-07), Nick Rahall (WV-03), Sutton (OH-13), and Tim Walz (MN-01). The members being targeted with web ads: Altmire (PA-04), Critz (PA-12), Peterson (MN-07), Rahall (WV-03), Sutton (OH-13).

As the bickering between Democrats and Republicans continues over a congressional redistricting map in Ohio, the AP reveals the influence wielded by House Speaker John Boehner in the map drafting process.

The National Republican Congressional Committee as well a representative for Beohner each had a notable say in the process. The money grafs in the AP story:

Documents obtained through a public records request by the Ohio Campaign for Accountable Redistricting show Tom Whatman, executive director of a congressional campaign effort called Team Boehner, legislative leaders, mapmaking consultants and the National Republican Congressional Committee participating in the process.

The correspondence includes a pledge by GOP Senate President Tom Niehaus to deliver "a map that Speaker Boehner fully supports." As the process kicked off this summer, William Batchelder, Republican speaker of the Ohio House, had said he expected Boehner to have a role -- though he also said he'd listen to U.S. Rep. Dennis Kucinich, a Democrat.

A September note from Whatman includes a reference to "someone important to us all":

"Guys: really really sorry to ask but can we do a small carve out down 77 in Canton and put Timken in the 16th district," Whatman wrote on Sept. 12. After the request is approved, Whatman replies, "Thanks guys. Very important to someone important to us all."

A map passed earlier this year in the state legislature was spearheaded by Republicans, and gives the GOP majorities in 12 out of 16 districts.

In November, Republicans tried to pass an alternate map with the help of some Democrats in the hopes of avoiding a ballot referendum. That proposal failed.

A debate isn't so bad. Once or twice, at least.

That's Texas GOP Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst's stance in the GOP Senate race.

"We are going to join our colleagues in one or two debates, and I look forward to it," Dewhurst told the Dallas Morning News. "The other candidates are all good people. They want to serve, and all are conservatives. But I am the one who has done it."

Former state Solicitor General Ted Cruz has challenged Dewhurst to five Lincoln-Douglas style debates. But don't count on Dewhurst giving Cruz any more than the minimum number of free statewide media opportunities.

Cruz needs to build his name ID, and his absence from the airwaves so far stands in contrast to Dewhurst and self-funding former Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert.

Dewhurst's move is smart: As the frontrunner, he can't afford to dodge debates altogether, otherwise that will become the story. But give Cruz -- whose national stock is on the rise despite his low profile in the state -- any extra chances to go toe to toe, and he risks creating free opportunities for the former solicitor general to tout his message in the state.

Updated at 12:31 p.m.

As Sen. Ben Nelson, D-Neb., takes time over the holidays to consider whether he'll run for a third term, he might want to avoid turning on the television.

Crossroads GPS, the outside group founded by former Republican National Committee chairman Mike Duncan and top GOP strategist Karl Rove, has reserved more than $500,000 on air time in Nebraska's two largest media markets. The three-month ad buy is apparently aimed at giving Nelson just a hint of the pressure to come, and maybe edge him out of the race.

"We want Ben Nelson to recognize that 2012 will be an extraordinarily grueling proposition in the case he decides to run," said Jonathan Collegio, a Crossroads spokesman, in confirming the buy.

Crossroads began the two-week blitz last week with a spot blasting Nelson's vote in favor of health care reform legislation. The ad will run through December 21. The group has reserved about $130,000 in broadcast and cable television time in Omaha and Lincoln over the next two weeks, according to a Republican source keeping tabs on the ad market.

After a break for the holidays, the ads will return in the middle of January, and Crossroads has purchased time through the end of March, the data show. In total, Crossroads has reserved $519,000 in ad time.

Dan Parker, who has been a fixture in Hoosier State Democratic politics for the last seven years is stepping down as chairman of the state party, he announced on Monday.

"I love the Indiana Democratic Party, and it has been my great honor to serve as its Chair for the past seven years," Parker wrote in a letter to state party central committee members.

Parker was elected to the post in 2004. This cycle, he was involved in the effort to garner support for Rep. Joe Donnelly in the Senate race and former state House Speaker John Gregg's campaign for governor.

He touted the party's achievements under his stewardship on Monday.

"We rallied back to control of the Indiana House and our Congressional delegation in 2006, and we'll never forget 2008: the first Democratic presidential victory in Indiana in 44 years," he said.

But lately, times have been tough for Democrats in the Hoosier state. While President Obama carried the state in 2008, he's very unlikely to win there again in 2012. What's more, Republicans controlled all offices selected by statewide election after November 2010 and picked up two congressional seats as well.

Rep. Mazie Hirono, D-Hawaii, leads former Rep. Ed Case by 18 points in the Democratic Senate primary, according to an internal poll conducted for the congresswoman's campaign last month.

Hirono leads Case 54 percent to 36 percent in the survey of likely Democratic primary voters. Just ten percent of respondents are either undecided or prefer another candidate.

Hirono has the clear support of the Democratic establishment, both in the state and in Washington. Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairwoman Patty Murray told reporters last week, "I'm supporting Mazie, and I believe she's going to win." Influential Democratic Sen. Daniel Inouye has said he is voting for Hirono.

Over the summer, Case released an internal poll of his own that irritated national Democrats. That survey, conducted by the Merriman River Group in late July, showed him leading Hirono by 16 points and performing better in a head-to-head matchup against the presumptive Republican nominee, former Gov. Linda Lingle. Case's poll showed Lingle beating Hirono but losing to the former congressman, in separate head-to-head matchups.

In Hirono's poll, respondents were asked the following question: "On a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 means it applies much more to Hirono and 5 means it applies much more to Case, which candidate would you say this phrase applies to more? Can beat Linda Lingle in the general election."

GOP presidential front-runner Newt Gingrich was the target of late-night jokes this weekend.

"Democrats in Hollywood now are starting to attack Republican front-runner Newt Gingrich," Jay Leno said Friday. "He makes millions of dollars for doing little work, he has ethical problems, he cheats on his wife with younger women. Why is Hollywood attacking him? He is Hollywood."

Don't miss today's Must See Moment 0:47 when David Letterman presents Gingrich's new ad in which he unveils the members of Herman Cain's team who have joined his campaign.

Take our late-night poll after the jump ...

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Romney blundered in Saturday's Iowa debate, the U .S. Supreme Court throws Texas redistricting into a state of flux, the Massachusetts Democratic field continues to shrink and Ed Martin isn't running for governor in Missouri. Here's today's rundown:

8) Keep an eye on this: Nothing is reportedly in the works yet, but Fox News is publicly signaling an interest in bringing Herman Cain on board.

7) Last week, the DCCC launched robocalls against ten GOP members over the payroll tax extension debate in Congress. The members targeted: Quico Canseco (TX-23). Jim Renacci (OH-16), Mike Coffman (CO-06), Jeff Denham (CA-10), Kristi Noem (SD-AL), Tom Latham (IA-03), Vern Buchanan (FL-13) , Joe Heck (NV-03), Dan Benishek (MI-01), Bobby Schilling (IL-17).

6) A Wisconsin man told News 12 in the state that he has signed as many as 80 petitions in the effort to recall GOP Gov. Scott Walker. The claim may or may not be true, but it's not a good headline for recall proponents. It's an example of the kind of thing Republicans will point to and seize on as they seek to challenge petitions signatures submitted to the Government Accountability Board.

5) It's starting to become a familiar story for Democratic Massachusetts Senate candidates not named Elizabeth Warren: State Rep. Tom Conroy is set to announce today that he is dropping out, the Boston Globe reports.

A substantial majority of Americans rate the honesty and ethical standards of members of Congress as either "low" or "very low" in a new Gallup poll released on Monday, rating members lower than telemarketers, lobbyists and car salesman, and tying a record for Gallup's honesty and ethics poll for any profession.

(PICTURES: Who Has Higher (And Lower) Approval Ratings?)

Sixty-four percent of Americans say they would rate members of Congress' honesty and ethical standards as "low" or "very low," with just 7 percent answering either "very high" or "high." Twenty-seven percent rated members as having average ethical standards.

Previous results from the poll showed that only 20 percent of registered voters would vote to reelect most members of Congress, and a Gallup poll earlier in November showed that just 13 percent of Americans approved of the job Congress was doing.

The 64-percent "low/very low" rating ties the worst score previously recorded: In 2008, 64 percent of Americans rated lobbyists as having "low" or "very low" ethical standards. The new rating for members of Congress is one point worse than the 63-percent score recorded for telemarketers in 2002 and car salespeople in 1988.

In the new poll, lobbyists continued to take a beating: 62 percent rated their honesty and ethics as either "low" or "very low." The next-worst were telemarketers, at 53 percent.

The profession rated highest: Nurses. Eighty-four percent rate the honesty and ethical standards of nurses as "very high" or "high," with just 1 percent rating them "low" or "very low."

And 26 percent of Americans rate the honesty and ethical standards of journalists as "very high" or "high," compared to 27 percent who say they are "low" or "very low" -- roughly in the middle of the pack of the professions tested by Gallup. Forty-six percent said journalists had average honesty and ethical standards.

The poll was conducted Nov. 28-Dec. 1, surveying 1,012 Americans. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percent.

Gallup has been testing the honesty and ethical standards of various professions since 1976 -- including an annual survey since 1990.

What we at The Hotline learned this week:

-- Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich's rise is for real. He leads comfortably in the three early primary or caucus states (Iowa, South Carolina, and Florida), and is giving former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney a run for his money in New Hampshire. He's got a broad base of support, from both the tea party activists and more establishment-minded voters. The compressed calendar plays into his hands as well, along with the fact that the two states after New Hampshire neighbor his home state of Georgia.

-- Romney and his allies are now beginning to throw the kitchen sink at Gingrich, and it may have its intended effect. Then again, the attacks are coming from his establishment surrogates -- the very people that grassroots conservatives outside of Washington mistrust greatly, in the first place. This upcoming week is a big one for Romney: if he can't dent much into Gingrich's lead, there's a good chance the former speaker will win Iowa, and have a credible shot at taking home the nomination.

-- Sen. Richard Lugar, R-Ind., can breathe a little easier this weekend. With wealthy auto dealer Bob Thomas poised to jump into the GOP primary in the Indiana Senate race, conservative voters looking to retire the six-term incumbent will have two choices: Thomas and state Treasurer Richard Mourdock. If Thomas and Mourdock both end up on the ballot, they could split the anti-Lugar vote and ensure a primary victory for the embattled incumbent.

-- When it comes to attacking Massachusetts Senate candidate Elizabeth Warren, it seems like Crossroads GPS hasn't settled on a strategy. The group's first ad attempted to tie the Democrat to Occupy Wall Street. The second ad, out this week, essentially accused her of being close with Wall Street. Warren hit back hard at the ad, calling it "Factually wrong and morally wrong."

-- A state where the GOP does seem to have a consistent strategy? Nebraska. Crossroads also released an ad this week targeting Sen. Ben Nelson, D-Neb., hitting him for being the "critical 60th vote" for President Obama's health care bill. And Attorney General Jon Bruning also just launched an ad calling Nelson "the deciding vote to pass Obamacare."

Democrats are preparing to spend over $1 million on TV time in Oregon's 1st District, hammering Republican nominee Rob Cornilles in the weeks leading up to the January 31, 2012, special election to succeed former Rep. David Wu, D-Ore.

According to a GOP source, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has reserved $1,038,105 on cable and broadcast television through the end of January. That's an amount that's increased steadily this week since Wednesday, when the DCCC made an initial buy of $124,280, but more than tripled that with over $439,000 through Dec.22. Their new buy gives them a reservation through the end of the election. Democratic nominee Suzanne Bonamici also went on TV this week, as did Cornilles, both with positive spots.

Democrats say the early ads shouldn't be seen as a sign of panic . In fact, both committees this year have taken their whippings in special elections -- Democrats lost former Rep. Anthony Weiner's, D-N.Y., Queens seat in a September special election, while Republicans were defeated in a May special election to replace former Rep. Chris Lee, R-N.Y.

The National Republican Congressional Committee took a lesson away from their loss in New York -- define your opponent early -- and they applied that to another special election the same day in Nevada's 2nd District. Even though it was seen as a relatively safe GOP seat, they began buying TV ads early there, hammering Democratic nominee Kate Marshall. And now, Democrats seem to be employing that same thought process in the approaching Oregon election. Another difference for the seemingly early buy -- both the holiday season, and the fact that with Oregon's all mail-in election, ballots will be sent out in mid-January, the window to reach voters is narrower than the calendar makes it seem.

So far, the two approaches in both elections are similar. While the DCCC's buy in Oregon is significant, TV time in Portland, especially around the holidays, is more expensive than the Reno market the NRCC had to buy in. So far, the DCCC has reserved 4,150 gross rating points in Oregon, while the NRCC bought 4,170 gross rating points in the Nevada contest.

This weekend the Sunday shows will react to Saturday's Republican presidential debate on ABC, less than a month away from the Iowa Caucuses.

Most of the shows are hosting a 2012 Republican candidate. NBC's Meet the Press will have Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, a week after placing second in the Des Moines Register poll. Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., will be on Face the Nation. Former Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pa., is on CNN's State of the Union. State of the Union will also host former New Hampshire Republican Gov. John Sununu, who as a former Massachusetts Republican Gov. Mitt Romney supporter, has had some very strong criticism of former Speaker Newt Gingrich. Texas Republican Gov. Rick Perry will go on FNC's Fox News Sunday as he tries to rejuvenate his campaign.

Iowa Republican Gov. Terry Branstad will be on Meet the Press and Rep. Steve King, R-Iowa., will be on Face the Nation.

The deadline to strike a deal the payroll tax cut extension is fast approaching. Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., and Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin will discuss whether a deal will be made before the expiration date on Meet the Press. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell will reflect on the Republican strategy for the payroll tax cut debate.

Remember to tune in to ABC on Saturday for the ABC News/WMUR-TV Republican Debate on ABC at 9 p.m.

Check out the full listings after the jump.

Here's the latest sign that a Wisconsin GOP Gov. Scott Walker is very likely to face a recall election campaign: He's putting together an experienced campaign team in anticipation of 2012.

Dan Blum, an experienced hand who previously worked on Sen. Rob Portman's, R-Ohio, 2010 campaign staff and the Republican National Committee prior to that will join the team as deputy campaign manager, Walker's campaign announced on Friday. Ciara Matthews, who worked for Sharron Angle's 2010 Senate campaign (curiously described in the release as having been a "senior member of the communications team for a top tier U.S. Senate race in 2010") will serve as communications director.

Tom Evenson and Andrea Boom, who both have experience in Wisconsin, will join the team as deputy communications director and finance director, respectively.

Keith Gilkes -- who managed Walker's 2010 campaign -- will work for Walker in an advisory role. Brian Tringali with the Tarrance Group will continue to poll for the governor.

The pace at which the recall signatures are being collected -- the movement had gathered nearly 300,000 in 12 days -- strongly suggests that a recall campaign is in the offing for next year.

For more on all of the moving parts in the recall effort, check out my primer from November.

While former Rep. Mark Neumann, R-Wis., and former Gov. Tommy Thompson have received most of the attention in the Wisconsin GOP Senate race, a lesser-known, and potentially equally formidable candidate is trying to make a splash.

State Assembly Speaker Jeff Fitzgerald, whose campaign has been overshadowed by his better-known rivals, rode a wave of conservative momentum into the race. While the Neumann/Thompson conservative/moderate battle rages, Fitzgerald has the potential to sneak out a win in the primary.

He faces some serious hurdles -- chiefly name ID and money -- but there are also several factors working in his favor. It's simply too early to call the Republican primary a two man race. Here's why:

Not Your Average Speaker: While Fitzgerald doesn't have the name ID of Thompson or Neumann, he has a higher profile than most state legislative leaders because of his involvement in the battle over Republican Gov. Scott Walker's controversial budget repair bill that curbed collective bargaining for public employees.

Fitzgerald and his brother, state Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald, played vital roles in shepherding Walker's agenda through the state legislature. During the protracted fight over collective bargaining, Fitzgerald became a regular on Fox News and a familiar voice on the influential conservative radio programs in the Milwaukee area.

A New Generation: One of the key planks of Fitzgerald's platform is this: He better represents the changing face of the Republican Party in Wisconsin.

Numerous polls have shown Americans' deep disapproval of the current Congress. The latest National Journal Congressional Insiders Poll shows members of Congress - especially Democrats - aren't feeling so great about themselves either. However, despite giving themselves low grades on the year, the survey also found that members on both sides generally agreed that deals on the payroll-tax holiday and unemployment benefits are likely to be stuck by the Christmas break.

Washington is getting into the holiday spirit, Conan O'Brien observes on Thursday. "The White House held its annual Hanukkah celebration," Conan says. "It was a traditional Jewish ceremony, except for the part where it was hosted by a black man from Hawaii."

And Jon Stewart graded footage from the speeches at the Republican Jewish Coalition Forum this week -- or, as he called it, the "tuches kiss-off."

Don't miss today's Must See Moment at 3:44 when Jimmy Kimmel presents "This Week in Unnecessary Censorship" featuring Herman Cain and Rick Perry:

Take our late-night poll after the jump...

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Romney's strategy shifts significantly, Perry faces more distractions and Elizabeth Warren fights back in Massachusetts. Meanwhile, Casey looks in good shape, Joe Walsh makes a big decision, and Curt Schilling just says no. Here's today's rundown:

10) Rep. Michele Bachmannn, R-Minn., says girls don't ask boys to prom; they have wait to be asked.

9) Curt Schilling isn't readying a run for Rep. Barney Frank's, D-Mass., seat.

8) Sen. Bob Casey, D-Pa., appears well-positioned for reelection, according to a new Muhlenberg College/Allentown Morning Call poll released late Thursday. Fifty-four percent of Pennsylvania voters feel Casey deserves to be reelected, a significant bump from August, when he was at just 41 percent (following the debt-ceiling fight in Congress). Casey's approval rating is 54 percent, running ahead President Obama in the key swing state; Obama's approval rating is 45 percent, up from 35 percent in August.

7) Rep. Joe Walsh, R-Ill., made it official: he'll switch back and run in his current 8th District, avoiding a primary with fellow GOP Rep.Randy Hultgren.

The brief potential showdown between the two contrasting freshmen had already brought out strong words, especially from Walsh. Illinois Republicans expect Walsh wasn't seeing good poll numbers, but he won't have a much easier task in his old district either, where two strong Democratic candidates -- Tammy Duckworth and Raja Krishnamoorthi are running.

Walsh noted in his announcement that NRCC Chair Pete Sessions had even encouraged him to run in the 8th and said the Republican would give them the best shot to keep the district, Walsh's demeanor and his ongoing child support dispute with his wife could end up giving Democrats an even better shot, though.

Walsh was also reportedly promised $3.5 million in general election fundraising help from House Speaker John Boehner.

More than three-in-four voters say most members of Congress don't deserve to be reelected in a new Gallup poll released early Friday, a sign that the volatility of the three most recent Congressional elections is likely to continue into 2012.

Just 20 percent say most members of Congress deserve reelection, a record low, while 76 percent say they do not deserve to be reelected, the highest percentage Gallup has measured in the 19 years since they began asking the question. Majorities of Democrats (68 percent), Republicans (75 percent) and independents (82 percent) think most members do not deserve reelection.

Voters remain more positive about their own member of Congress -- 53 percent say their representative deserves to be reelected, compared to 39 percent who don't -- but those numbers are historically low, Gallup reports. Last year, the percentage of voters who said their representative deserved to be reelected cratered at 49 percent, just one above the record low, in 1992.

Meanwhile, the percentage of Americans who say that President Obama deserves to be reelected remains historically low as well. Just 43 percent of voters say he deserves to be reelected, while 55 percent say he does not. In August, 47 percent said he deserved reelection, and half of voters said he did not.

The Gallup poll was conducted Nov. 28-Dec. 1, surveying 903 registered voters. The margin of error is +/- 3.3 percent.

Twitter has claimed its latest victims in the realm of politics.

Inappropriate tweets from the personal accounts of three aides to Rep. Rick Larsen, D-Wash., that were published on a center-right news website have prompted their firing, the congressman's spokesman confirmed Thursday afternoon.

NW Daily Marker published a story which included tweets from two of Larsen's legislative assistants and a legislative correspondent. The tweets were made between August and early December of this year.

Some of the more, ahem, interesting tweets:

-- "I'm pretty sure I couldn't pass a field sobriety test right now. Looking forward to a day in the office."

-- "Dear taxpayers -- I hope that you don't mind that I'm watching YouTube clips of Nirvana at my government job."

-- "So my drinking prowess is being called into question by @betsybites. Be careful what you wish for. #DSR."

-- "My coworker just took a shot of Jack crouching behind my desk. We have unabashedly given up on just abotu all things work related #D2R."

-- "Best walk of shame ever #FTW #D2R."

In a statement, Larsen spokesman Bryan Thomas confirmed that the three staffers have been terminated.

"Congressman Larsen and his staff became aware of the issue concerning the three staff members at noon EST. We became aware of the issue through a tweet referencing an article about the incident. Congressman Larsen immediately decided to fire the three staff members involved in the incident. The staff members were dismissed at 1:10 p.m. EST. Neither Congressman Larsen nor his other staff were aware of the actions by these three staff members before today. Congressman Larsen is disappointed by their actions and takes this very seriously. He has made it clear that he will not tolerate this kind of behavior," said Thomas.

Updated at 3:42 p.m.

Embattled former New Jersey Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine, whose stewardship of the now failed brokerage firm MF Global has prompted swift, widespread criticism is in Washington today, testifying before the House Agriculture Committee. His arrival has prompted extra coverage from the cable business news networks, which have been keeping tabs on the larger Corzine saga, but in noticeably different ways.

Bloomberg's coverage has focused on the intersection of the financial and political implications of the story and the dramatic reversal of Corzine's career.

Corzine "was trying to reclaim his legacy on Wall Street," Bloomberg TV's Margaret Brennan told Hotline On Call. "To see his fall from grace some would say is riveting the banking community. ... This is the first US institution to be a casualty of the Eurozone crisis."

Bloomberg TV is holding special broadcasts for the Corzine hearings. Brennan's show InBusiness, airing from Washington, D.C., had guests like Sen. Richard Shelby, R-Ala., and Rep. Peter Welch, D-Conn., and highlighted a significant divide in how to approach the scandal. Bloomberg TV will also have a profile airing later anchored by Lisa Murphy called Jon Corzine: Boom and Bust tonight as well.

Along with Bloomberg, FBN and CNBC are carrying coverage of the proceedings all day.

FBN's Charlie Gasparino has been covering the Corzine developments for several weeks after breaking the story of MF Global financial irregularities. He has focused on the legal, political and financial angles in the overall story.

Some very encouraging news for Sen. Richard Lugar, R-Ind.: Howey Politics reports that auto dealer Bob Thomas is preparing to enter the GOP Senate race. "I would say it will be a yes, based on everything I know," Thomas told the Hoosier State politics news website.

If Thomas does run, he'll join Lugar and Treasurer Richard Mourdock in the race. The potential for the anti-Lugar vote to be divided between Mourdock and Thomas would be a major boost for the longtime senator's primary chances. Thomas told Howey Politics he will make a final decision on the race by Jan. 2.

Thomas lost to now former-GOP Rep. Mark Souder in the 2010 GOP primary. He spent six-figures in the race.

Jay Leno said Wednesday that maybe the people of Illinois are on to something after their former Gov. Rod Blagojevich was sentenced to 14 years in prison for corruption.

"How lucky are the people in that state? Think about this. Look at all the money they're saving by not having to pay their former governors a pension," Leno joked. "Throw all the politicians in jail! We'd save a fortune."

Don't miss today's Must See Moment at 1:51 when Leno shows how Donald Trump has had an influence on presidential candidate Newt Gingrich:

Take our late-night poll after the jump...

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Democrats and Romney are starting to go after Gingrich more and more, Blagojevich is sentenced to 14 years in prison, Betty Sutton and Jim Renacci are on a collision course and Joe Walsh explains why he's a fan of Febreze.

7) "My office was invaded by the Occupy Protesters today & all I saw were $1000 laptops & vomit on the carpet. Thank God for #febreze" -- a tweet from Rep. Joe Walsh, R-Ill. (h/t Daily Caller) . Don't forget - the Tea Party favorite promises he'll announce tonight at 8 p.m. ET which district he's chosen to run in next year. Check back at Hotline On Call later this evening.

6) Former Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich was sentenced to 14 years in prison on Wednesday.

5) Former Maine Democratic Secretary of State Matthew Dunlap will officially launch his challenge against Sen. Olympia Snowe on Saturday. As we reported on Wednesday, Snowe's numbers are looking pretty solid right now.

4) Rep. Betty Sutton, D-Ohio, announced the she will run in the Buckeye State's new 16th District, which means a showdown against freshman Rep.Jim Renacci, R-Ohio. The matchup is expected to be competitive, although the redrawn district leans Republican.

Republicans are less enthusiastic about voting for president in 2012, according to a new Gallup survey released early Thursday, suggesting that the turnout advantage they enjoyed in last year's midterm elections may be waning.

Forty-nine percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting, compared to 44 percent who say they are less enthusiastic. In a mid-September survey, 58 percent of Republicans were more enthusiastic, while just 30 percent said they were less enthusiastic.

While the gap may be narrowing, Democrats' enthusiasm has not increased accordingly: 44 percent say they are more enthusiastic (compared to 45 percent in September), while 47 percent say they are less enthusiastic.

Gallup editor-in-chief Frank Newport posits that the closing of the enthusiasm gap -- from 13 points to 5 -- "could reflect the intensive and bruising battle" for the GOP presidential nomination and "the rapid rise and fall of various candidates" therein. But if enthusiasm among Republicans continues to decrease, it could have effects beyond the presidential election, potentially threatening the GOP's ability to take control of the Senate and maintain or increase its majority in the House.

Other surveys have showed a wider gap between the parties, including Quinnipiac polls also released early Thursday that showed registered Republicans more enthusiastic than Democrats about voting in Florida (by a 24-point margin), Ohio (27-point margin) and Pennsylvania (20-point margin).

The Gallup poll was conducted Nov. 28-Dec., surveying 437 Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, and 464 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. The margin of error for each sample is +/- 4.7 percent and +/- 4.5 percent, respectively.

Democrat Elizabeth Warren has pulled ahead of Sen. Scott Brown, R-Mass., in a new UMass-Lowell/Boston Herald poll released Wednesday night, as Bay State voters have begun to sour on the incumbent senator over the past few months.

Warren, a former White House adviser who helped set up the new federal Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, has a slight lead over Brown, 49 percent to 42 percent. Three percent of voters chose another candidate, and 9 percent were undecided. Brown trails Warren despite a 16-point lead among independent voters.

In late September, Brown held a scant, three-point lead over Warren, 41 percent to 38 percent.

The poll shows Brown's approval ratings among Massachusetts voters dropping sharply. In late September, 53 percent of voters approved of the job Brown was doing, while 29 percent disapproved. Now, just 45 percent of voters approve of Brown's job performance, and 36 percent now disapprove of Brown.

Brown's image also has taken a hit: 48 percent of voters have a favorable opinion of Brown, down from 52 percent in late September. The percentage who view him unfavorably has risen from 29 percent to 35 percent.

Warren's image has taken a slight hit, as well. The percentage of voters who have a favorable opinion of Warren has risen, from 30 percent in late September, to 34 percent now. But the percentage who have an unfavorable opinion has also jumped, from 18 percent in late September, to 27 percent now.

The poll was conducted Dec. 1-6 by N.J.-based Princeton Survey Research Associates, surveying 505 registered voters. The margin of error is +/- 4.3 percent.

If there was any doubt Democrats see former Sen. George Allen's controversial "Macaca" moment as a huge political liability, former Gov. Tim Kaine erased it during the first debate of the 2012 Senate contest Wednesday in Richmond.

Kaine said Allen was wrong when, in August 2006, he used the phrase to refer to an Indian-American tracker working for Democrat Jim Webb's campaign. Video of the incident, one of the first viral videos to have a dramatic impact on a major campaign, shows Allen welcoming the tracker, S.R. Sidarth, "to America and the real world of Virginia."

"There was no mistake about what those words meant," Kaine said at the debate, hosted by the Associated Press in Richmond. Allen, Kaine said, implied the tracker was "less of a Virginian, less of an American than you or me. ... It's part of the divisive politics that we've got to put behind in this country."

Kaine aides have never ruled out going back to the 2006 comment to hammer Allen. When asked about using the well-worn YouTube clip, Kaine adviser Mo Elleithee said a candidate's record "is fair game for discussion."

Allen and Kaine used their first debate to thrust and parry over themes that will become familiar in the next 11 months. Kaine offered ready rebuttals to Allen's criticisms and ready to use his own attacks. Allen touted his record on crime while emphasizing his support of coal and opposition to cap-and-trade energy policy, issues that could divide the candidates in the key Southwest region.

Updated 3:54 p.m. and at 4:22 p.m.

Anybody nervous?

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is buying television advertising in Oregon's First Congressional District, an indication that the race to sew up ex-Rep. David Wu's old seat may not be in the bag.

The Democratic ad attacks businessman Rob Cornilles (R) for alleged ties to the tea party movement, a theme that Democrats have been hammering throughout the special election. The ad buy will run beginning Thursday through the weekend, at a cost of $124,280 -- a significant investment in the Portland media market.

"In this environment, we're not taking anything for granted especially when the Republican is an untrustworthy self-funder who is trying to rewrite his extreme Tea Party positions," a DCCC spokeswoman said.

The Democratic nominee, former state Sen. Suzane Bonamici, is up with her own advertisement, a positive ad that features Bonamici meeting voters and railing against debt and subsidies for oil companies. Bonamici's ad was produced by Dixon Davis Media, the prominent Washington-based firm.

Cornilles ran advertisements before the November 8 primary, but he has not run ads in the last month or so.

Wu's old district should be a safe Democratic seat. The seat stretches from western Porland through the northern Willamette Valley, famous for Oregon's pinot noirs, and along the border with Washington State to the coastal towns of Astoria and Seaside. President Obama won 61 percent of the vote in the district, and it hasn't elected a Republican to Congress since Wendell Wyatt won his final term in 1972.

Cornilles, who ran against Wu in 2010, scored 42 percent of the vote, losing by about 38,000 out of 300,000 ballots cast. That was Wu's narrowest vote margin since he won election in 1998, by a 50 percent to 47 percent gap.

But special elections don't always follow the same rules normal elections follow. If the departed member who caused the special election left because of a scandal, the other party has a very good track record of picking up the seat. In recent years, ex-Reps. Eric Massa, D-N.Y., Chris Lee, R-N.Y., and Anthony Weiner,D-N.Y., have all resigned under ethical clouds, then watched their districts swing to the other party in the subsequent special election.

First district voters will get their ballots in the all-mail election early next month. They have until January 31 to turn those ballots in. Can Republicans win in deep-blue Oregon? The possibility, at least, is enough to force Democrats to spend some early money.

In today's Hotline Spotlight, we take a look at the left's new knight in shining armor. For the third presidential election cycle in a row, the liberal blogosphere has a candidate to rally around: In 2004, it was Howard Dean. In 2008, it was Barack Obama. Now, it's Elizabeth Warren.

What other Senate candidate has received as much attention as Warren has? She's already been profiled in Esquire, Vanity Fair, The New York Times and New York Magazine. Even the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette sent a reporter to Brockton. Marco Rubio? Not until he forced Charlie Crist out of the GOP primary. Jim DeMint? Not until he established himself in the Senate.

The only Senate contender who received so much attention is the man Warren is trying to beat, Republican Sen. Scott Brown. His win in a 2010 special election to replace the late Sen. Ted Kennedy inspired the right and gave them hope that the country, even liberal Massachusetts, was turning against President Obama.

And that's exactly the same reason Warren is becoming such an icon to those on the left: Depressed partisans have a candidate who gives them hope amid signs their party is still struggling.

To many liberals, Obama has fallen short of expectations. The war in Afghanistan rages on, the prison at Guantanamo Bay is still operational, and while he's made progress on gay rights, Obama himself has not embraced the concept of same-sex marriage, as liberals had hoped he might. Meanwhile, the administration helped bail out banks and the auto industry, while middle class Americans struggle to keep their homes or find a job. Obama's purported willingness to compromise with Republicans, at a time when liberals see a stubbornly unmoving GOP, is maddening, too.

And 2012 is only likely to frustrate liberals further. Faced with a choice between Obama and the eventual Republican nominee, liberal activists will mobilize to help their president win another term. But Obama will be positioning himself for the middle, rather than speaking clearly to liberal issues. Once he wins another term, liberal activists will have even less leverage over the White House.

At a pen-and-pad briefing with reporters on Tuesday, Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairwoman Patty Murray repeated a familiar refrain: Republican infighting in primaries will be detrimental to the GOP's overall chances of success in 2012.

But look more closely at this cycle's contested Republican primaries. What you'll find is that a GOP primary -- even a heated affair -- isn't always a bad thing. In some cases, it could turn out to be a net positive for the party.

Murray invoked 2010 as an example on Tuesday.

"That kind of division in their own party hurt them in the last election, and I fully expect it to hurt them in this election as well," the Washington senator said.

It's true that in several races in 2010, a tea party versus establishment primary dynamic wreaked havoc and cost Republicans seats. Delaware and Nevada are two prime examples. But it's not 2010 anymore. Even in races where the GOP field has been relatively weak (Missouri, Nebraska, Florida, Pennsylvania), there isn't a credible contender that can accurately be compared to Angle, Miller or O'Donnell.

It's true, Rep. Todd Akin, R-Mo., has been underwhelming, and has made his share of missteps. In Nebraska, Jon Bruning has been plagued by negative headlines, and the Florida field has struggled to the point that Republican Rep. Connie Mack decided to run even after he originally passed on the race. But none of the competitive candidates in the three races have done anything disqualifying and none are sure-thing losers in a general election a la O'Donnell.

Jimmy Kimmel on Tuesday presented a mock-campaign ad for Rick Perry in which the Texas governor and presidential candidate tries to appeal to supporters of Herman Cain.

"Now that Herman Cain has suspended his run for president, there's only one GOP candidate left who can keep us laughing," the faux ad's narrator says. "Rick Perry: Strong, dumb, Perry funny."

Don't miss today's Must See Moment at 2:51 when The Tonight Show plays an ad for T-Pain's new microphone. Guess who is already using it?

Take our late-night poll after the jump...

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Kaine and Allen face off in the first Virginia Senate debate this afternoon, Joe Walsh will announce where he is running on Thursday, Romney will appear on a Sunday show after a prolonged absence and Gingrich leads in another Iowa poll, but can he even make it onto the ballot in Ohio? Here's today's rundown:

9) Rep. Joe Walsh, R-Ill., will announce on Thursday which district he intends to run in next year.

8) Nearly 60 percent of Mainers think Republican Sen. Olympia Snowe should be reelected next year, according to a new Pan Atlantic SMS poll released Tuesday. Some tea party groups are seeking Snowe's ouster in a GOP primary, but pollsters report that the vast majority of Republicans think she should be reelected.

7) The Florida House released its first seven congressional redistricting draft maps on Tuesday. Most of the seven drafts would add a new east Orlando/Osceola district that could elect a Hispanic Democrat, the Orlando Sentinel reports. Last week, the state Senate released a single draft map, which, overall, was favorable to Republicans but imperiled GOP Reps. Allen West and Tom Rooney.

6) Mitt Romney will make his first Sunday show appearance since early 2010 (!) when he appears on Fox News Sunday this weekend. Romney's last appearance on a Sunday news show was on March 7, 2010.

5) This afternoon, former Democratic National Committee Chairman Tim Kaine and former GOP Sen. George Allen will debate for the first time. The Richmond Times-Dispatch has a good preview of the heavyweight showdown: Kaine is expected to attack Allen's record as a former senator and contrast it with his own record as governor, while Allen will tie Kaine to President Obama and attack his previous role as DNC chair.

Stay tuned to Hotline On Call for coverage of the debate, which begins at 1:30 p.m.

In a briefing with reporters Tuesday, Democratic Senatorial Committee Chair Patty Murray, accompanied by Rep. Shelley Berkley, D-Nev., and Rep. Tammy Baldwin, D-Wis., and Rep. Mazie Hirono, D-Hawaii, touted the female Democratic Senate recruits for 2012 and discussed the Senate landscape.

A few highlights from the briefing:

Hawaii: Murray made her support for Hirono, who is facing off with former Rep. Ed Case in the Hawaii primary, clear. "I'm supporting Mazie, and I believe she's going to win," said Murray.

That the DSCC is backing Hirono is no surprise. Back in August, DSCC executive director Guy Cecil accused Case of not "being honest" with a poll his campaign released.

Nebraska: All eyes are on Sen. Ben Nelson's, D-Neb., decision on whether to run again in 2012, which he has said will come before the end of the year. "I've known Ben a long time, and one thing I do know about Ben is that he is a fighter," said Murray. She said she couldn't predict what he'd decide.

Murray pivoted to a discussion of the North Dakota in answering a question about the Democratic options if Nelson chooses against a run.

"I want Ben Nelson to run," she added. "But in North Dakota when Kent Conrad told me he wasn't going to run, most people wrote that state off. We now are in a toss-up race there with Heidi and I believe she's going to win."

There are certainly differences between the two states, however: former Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp had long been mentioned as a potential Democratic candidate in North Dakota, while in Nebraska there are no obvious alternatives should Nelson bow out.

Why hasn't Sen. Ben Nelson, D-Neb., decided whether he's running for reelection yet?

After all, since we wrote in early November about the uncertainty he expressed in a local interview, Nelson's seen a couple of encouraging signs, including a poll that shows notable improvement in his standing. But the political outlook is only part of Nelson's calculus, those close to him say.

"I think it has always been two issues for him," said Nelson campaign manager Paul Johnson. "Does he stand a reasonable chance of being reelected? Our survey answers that in positive way."

"The second, which is much more amoeba-like, is do you want to serve another six years? And that's a much more personal issue."

Indeed, the internal poll released by the Nelson campaign, which is also the only recent publicly released live-caller poll on the race, showed some encouraging signs for Nelson: he was in a statistical tie with Republican Attorney General Jon Bruning after trailing by five points in a June survey. His favorability also ticked up to the point that a majority held a favorable opinion of him.

It's no coincidence. While Republican groups have been in the six-figures going after Nelson on the airwaves, it hasn't compared to the seven figures that have been spent on his behalf by allied Democratic groups over the past several months. No other endangered Democratic incumbent has seen anything like the reinforcements Nelson has enjoyed in Nebraska.

A Democratic win in Nebraska is pivotal to their prospects of holding onto the Senate. Not only would they hang onto one of their most vulnerable seats, but it would be an indicator that the controversial votes most Democratic senators took weren't as harmful as they were in 2010.

Everyone on late night was talking about Donald Trump's announcement that he will moderate a Republican presidential debate later this month.

"Well that should help end the criticism that [people] in the party are millionaires and billionaires," Jay Leno joked. "Bring Donald, the man of the people!"

And Conan O'Brien got his hands on some "exclusive footage" from the debate.

Don't miss today's Must See Moment at 4:30 where Jon Stewart presents the Pokemon line that Herman Cain should have quoted in his speech on Saturday when he suspended his campaign:

Take our late-night poll after the jump...

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Some pretty impressive numbers are out in South Carolina and Iowa for Gingrich, the Joe Walsh watch continues in Illinois, the Florida House will release a new redistricting map later today and Josh Mandel gets the National Review treatment. Here's today's rundown:

7) New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu was picked for a jury that will hear a murder case.

6) National Review takes a closer look at Ohio GOP Treasurer Josh Mandel, who was a pretty creative campaigner as a student at Ohio State, when he ran for president of student government. According to the piece, he once "rented a King Kong balloon, stuck a banner with his name on it, and inflated the beast to its 30-foot height on the Oval, which is OSU's central gathering area."

But the fact that the profile accentuates his youth - and his experience in student government -- may not be a good thing. Here's an excerpt from the lead: "As Mandel finished [speaking], Gary Joseph Wilson, a law student at Case Western, raised his hand. "How old are you?" he asked. Mandel turned the question around: "How old do you think I am?" Wilson thought about it for a second."Twenty-four?" he guessed. Mandel is 34, but the fact that an otherwise favorable profile can't get over his youthful appearance is going to a problem for him as he runs for one of a senior-heavy legislative body.

5) Keep an eye on Florida today, where the state House is expected to release redistricting proposals. The state Senate released its first map last week, and it was largely favorable for Republicans, but endangered Reps. Allen West, R-Fla., and Tom Rooney, R-Fla.

Colorado Democrats won a major victory on Monday as the state Supreme Court upheld a congressional map that set off a legal fight between the party and Republicans, who opposed the new lines.

In short, the map means Democrats have a new target against second-term Republican Rep. Mike Coffman in suburban Denver, who saw his once-safe district get seven points more Democratic. Freshman GOP Rep. Scott Tipton, who represents the Western Slope-based 3rd District, saw his already vulnerable seat get slightly worse, while freshman GOP Rep. Cory Gardner's district, once a target, got much better for Republicans.

A lower court judge had previously ruled in favor of the map, which Republicans appealed to the state's high court.

More bad news for Rep. John Tierney, D-Mass., as Daniel Eremian, Tierney's brother-in-law, was convicted in District Court on Monday of racketeering, racketeering conspiracy, and other charges.

The Boston Globe has the full details of the conviction.

I wrote last week that the controversy is nothing new, as negative headlines have been surrounding Tierney's wife and two of her brothers for some time. But as Jessica Taylor pointed out in her column last week (subscriber), Republicans have an outside shot at winning Tierney's district next year. It's the least Democratic seat in the state and Republicans already have a strong recruit in Richard Tisei, a moderate who has run statewide before.

Even though he is not accused of any wrongdoing, Tierney could face political problems off of his extended family's legal issues.

The short-lived speculation over whether Pennsylvania Senate Majority Leader Dominic Pileggi would challenge Democratic Sen. Bob Casey has come to an end, with the Republican state legislator announcing on Monday that he is not running.

"After a great deal of careful consideration, I have decided not to enter the race for the United States Senate," he said in a statement on his Facebook page. "I will continue to focus on my service as Senate Majority Leader, working for positive change in state government. I thank those who encouraged me to run, and everyone who has offered kind words of support."

Had he run, Pileggi would have been a credible candidate with the potential to stand out in a crowded GOP field which right now, lacks a clear-cut favorite. He said last week he had been approached by a number of people about the possibility of a run. National Republicans, meanwhile, never really expected him to make a bid.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Cain's out, and Gingrich is trying to capitalize on his success in Iowa with a new ad. Meanwhile, Kasich looks to oust his own party chairman, while national Republicans try to coax Gov. Heineman into a Senate bid in Nebraska. Here's today's rundown:

9) Forget flavor of the week, month or year. Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, says he's the flavor of the decade. He also was one of the few Republican presidential candidates (along with Jon Huntsman) to blast the Donald Trump-moderated debate.

8) Wisconsin Democratic state Sen. Tim Cullen is giving serious consideration to a recall run against Republican Gov. Scott Walker.

7) There is an intra-party battle going on in Ohio, where GOP Gov. John Kasich and state House Speaker William Batchelder are trying to dump state GOP chair Kevin DeWine.

6) As we noted on Saturday, the New York Times reported that national GOP leaders are reaching out to Nebraska Gov. Dave Heineman in attempt to convince him to run for the Senate. It means the GOP still takes very seriously the idea that Democratic Sen. Ben Nelson will run for reelection and also serves as yet another indication of the relative weakness of the current GOP field.

A senior Senate Democratic aide told Politico that party leaders want Nelson to announce his decision before Congress adjourns this month, meaning a decision could come within the next two weeks.

5) Herman Cain suspended his presidential campaign on Saturday, and while he continued to deny the allegations against him, he said the "cloud of doubt" they have created left him unable to continue the campaign.

There is a notable difference suspending versus ending his campaign: he can accept money to pay for his campaign thus far and potentially pay for his upcoming plans to travel the country promoting his tax and foreign policy plans, the New York Times notes.

Saturday Night Live's cold open this weekend starred Fred Armisen as a deflated President Obama coming to terms with his lack of power.

"I used to think that being president meant you had a lot of power," Armisen's character said, speaking from the Oval Office. "But now I know it's more of a ceremonial position, a majestic figurehead whose main duties are shaking the hands of this year's WNBA champions and nodding and smiling when Chinese dignitaries ask if they can touch your hair."

Don't miss today's Must See Moment at 4:10 when Herman Cain makes an appearance on Weekend Update with Seth Meyers to talk about his decision to suspend his campaign:

Take our late-night poll after the jump...

What we at The Hotline learned this week:

-- Looking for signs that Sen. Ben Nelson, D-Neb., is going to run for reelection after all? Majority PAC is airing ads on his behalf, something they wouldn't do if he has already thrown in the towel. National Republicans, meanwhile, are trying to coax Gov. Dave Heineman to run, anticipating a competitive race if Nelson runs.

-- Sure, fiercely-contested Senate primaries can sometimes hurt a party's eventual nominee. But one side benefit is that it often discourages the opposite party from launching full-bore attacks against many of those candidates. For instance, in this cycle, Democrats haven't spent too much ammunition trying to define early the various Republican Senate candidates in Florida, Michigan, Missouri, Nebraska, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin. Compare that to the rough treatment Republicans like Josh Mandel, George Allen, and Denny Rehberg have already received.

-- If former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson prevails in the GOP primary in the state's Senate race, it won't because of a lack of opposition. Thompson's official announcement this week set off a flurry of statements from conservative groups criticizing the former governor. The Club for Growth, which is backing former Rep. Mark Neumann in the primary, released a six-page report tying Thompson to a group that supporters President Obama's health care reform bill. Sen. Jim DeMint, R-S.C., officially announced his endorsement of Neumann -- and sent out an email to supporters bashing Thompson for good measure. Few GOP campaign rollouts have been met with such scorn from the right.

-- Iowa is having a good week. Between Mitt Romney's ad buy and Newt Gingrich opening up campaign headquarters in the state for the first time, the increased focus on Jan. 3 caucuses is upon us, finally -- after months where national debates consistently overshadowed the first-in-the-nation caucus state.

-- While Gingrich won Herman Cain supporters after the businessman's downward spiral in the polls, he also seems to have won some of the same problems. Like Cain, Gingrich's state infrastructure in Iowa and New Hampshire looks like a big hurdle the former House Speaker will have to overcome if he has any hopes of beating Romney.

The three candidates focusing on Iowa right now will dominate on Sunday, with Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, appearing on State of the Union, former Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pa., stopping by This Week and Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., doing double-duty on State of the Union and Fox News Sunday.

Kahlil Byrd, the CEO of Americans Elect will also be on Fox News Sunday. Former Louisiana Gov. Buddy Roemer announced earlier this week that he is seriously considering running under the centrist party, which has already qualified for the ballot in 9 states and has petition-verifications pending in 3 others.

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee is hosting a Republican presidential forum on his Fox News show, Huckabee, on Saturday. The two hour live forum, which begins at 8 p.m. EST, will feature a discussion on domestic issues with six of the Republican candidates: Bachmann, Paul, Santorum, former Speaker Newt Gingrich, Texas Gov. Rick Perry, and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

Republican Attorneys General Pam Bondi, of Florida, Ken Cuccinelli, of Virginia, and Scott Pruitt, of Oklahoma, who are leading the charge against President Obama's health care bill will moderate alongside Huckabee. They are expected to quiz the candidates on EPA regulation, labor, education, immigration, social issues and, of course, health care. Aside from the candidates who will be hoping to bolster their social conservative credentials with Huckabee ahead of the Iowa caucuses, Cuccinelli, who just announced a bid for governor in 2013, could be the one to watch.

Check out the full listings after the jump.

In the 2013 Virginia governor's race, forget about grand rolling out ceremonies: GOP Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling is going straight for the jugular of his primary opponent Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli.

Bolling released a statement on Dec. 1, saying he was "very disappointed by Mr. Cuccinelli's decision to run for Governor in 2013. During the 2009 campaign, and since taking office in 2010, Mr. Cuccinelli had repeatedly stated that he intended to seek re-election as Attorney General in 2013 and that is what I and other Republican leaders had expected him to do. Unfortunately, he has now decided to put his own personal ambition ahead of the best interests of the Commonwealth and the Republican Party."

Bolling then cited his own history of deferring the 2009 race to then-Attorney General Bob McDonnell, seeking re-election instead.

"Unlike Mr. Cuccinelli, I set aside my personal ambition and did what was right for the Commonwealth and our party," said Bolling. He later added, "I have consistently stated my intention to run for Governor in 2013, and Mr. Cuccinelli's announcement will not alter my intended course."

In his own statement, McDonnell made his preferences clear.

"While I do prefer a scenario in which both men continue to serve in statewide office together going forward, I certainly respect the right of the attorney general to make his own decision regarding future races. Since early 2008, I've been clear that I will strongly support Bill Bolling for Governor in 2013," said McDonnell.

There are several reasons why this campaign will be remarkably different than past races.

First is timing. Most Virginia races don't kick off two calendar years before the election.

Second, by directly attacking Cuccinelli, Bolling is setting the groundwork for what could become a nasty 1.5 year squabble. While gubernatorial primaries do get heated -- see Brian Moran's reaction to Terry McAuliffe during the 2009 race -- bad blood usually does not spill out into public until at least a few months before voting.

Cuccinelli also said in a statement that he "will not resign as attorney general to run for governor."

The elected attorney general in Virginia has run for governor every four years since 1993. However, all of them resigned from office during their final year: McDonnell on March 29, 2009; Jerry Kilgore on Feb. 1, 2005; Mark Earley on June 4, 2001; Jim Gilmore on June 11, 1997; and Mary Sue Terry on Jan. 29, 1993.

Kilgore, Bolling and McDonnell faced intra-party opposition in 2005 though only Cuccinelli did in 2009. The difference for Bolling since 2005 is former Prince William Board of County Supervisors Chairman Sean Connaughton, a Republican, was much more of a congenial moderate compared to the conservative firebrand Cuccinelli. In fact, McDonnell appointed Connaughton secretary of the Virginia Department of Transportation.

The race to the right is on in Utah, where GOP Gov. Gary Herbert, who has angered many conservatives, finds himself running against two other Republicans -- both of whom are making early moves to position themselves as figures who will stand up to the federal government. Morgan Philpot, the 2010 Republican challenger to Democratic Rep. Jim Matheson, in particular, is using some pretty strong language. The Salt Lake Tribune:

Philpot advocated litigation, nullification of federal laws and flat defiance of demands he deemed unconstitutional -- even if it means his arrest.

"Am I going to jail if I do? If that's what it's going to take. Does the federal government need to come down and throw some handcuffs on the governor of Utah?" he asked, to applause from his supporters.

The other Republican challenger to Herbert is state Rep. Ken Sumsion, who is also making his feelings on the federal government known:

"As governor, no more compromising, no more trading.... we're not taking another monument," he said, adding, nor should the federal government be allowed to close roads across federal lands -- even if that means showdowns between state and federal law enforcement.

Watch to see, if heading towards next spring's convention, one of the two challengers emerges as the conservative standard-bearer, or if support is split between the two.

The Gingrich Moment has yet to catch on with National Journal's Political Insiders. Despite former House Speaker Newt Gingrich's surge in the Republican presidential nomination contest, overwhelming majorities of both Democratic and Republican Insiders still say former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney has the better shot at beating President Obama in 2012.

Even when it's not the economy, it's still the economy, stupid. It is widely accepted that jobs and the economy will dominate the elections of 2012, but what other issues will have a serious impact? According to this week's National Journal Political Insiders Poll, the budget deficit and taxes head the list, in part because voters associate those issues with the economy.

Jon Stewart has discovered that Mitt Romney also has a mistress who is threatening his presidential campaign.

"Just like Herman Cain, Mitt Romney has an embarrassing person in his past who he is desperately trying to hide," The Daily Show host joked on Thursday. "For Herman Cain, it's a woman named Ginger White. For Mitt Romney... it's Mitt Romney."

Don't miss today's Must See Moment at 2:20 when Jay Leno gets Rick Perry's reaction to the moment when the Republican presidential candidate flubbed the voting age and election date:

Take our late-night poll after the jump...

The unemployment rate dropped to 8.6 percent in November, the lowest level since March 2009, the Labor Department reported on Friday.

The economy added 120,000 new jobs in November, in line with economists' expectations of an increase of 122,000, according to Reuters. That's just shy of the 125,000 most economists say the labor market needs to gain to keep the unemployment rate steady. Bringing the rate down a percentage point over a year would take closer to 200,000 new jobs each month.

Read the complete story on NationalJournal.com.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Gingrich is confident he'll be the GOP nominee, Cain's support in Iowa takes a dive, Cuccinelli confirms he's running for governor, and Republicans still have their doubts about Mitt Romney. Here's today's rundown:

7) Rep. Roscoe Bartlett's, R-Md., chief of staff, Bud Otis, has resigned amid reports he was securing support to run for Bartlett's seat next year. Despite weak fundraising and a daunting new district, the 85 year-old congressman has said he'll seek an 11th term.

6) Virginia GOP Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli confirmed on Thursday what several outlets had reported the previous day -- that he is indeed running for governor in 2013.

5) Some Virginia tea party activists and groups are taking issue with former Sen. George Allen's, R-Va., campaign, which they say either put them on a list of endorsers, even though they did not endorse the GOP frontrunner or mischaracterized groups.

4) Ohio Republican Treasurer Josh Mandel takes to the pages of the Wall Street Journal to hit Democrats over drilling restrictions in Ohio.

Former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson officially launched his Senate campaign on Thursday, releasing a two-and-a-half minute web video laying out the reasons why he is running. He also offers up word of caution to supporters.

"You can count on the mudslinging from Washington, the lies from special interest groups. That's not the Wisconsin way. And it's certainly not my way," he says in the video.

The Club for Growth has been hammering Thompson for months, and they have endorsed his GOP opponent, former Rep. Mark Neumann, in the race. Sen. Jim DeMint, R-S.C., has also endorsed Neumann and has also warned against the prospect of Thompson winning the nomination. For someone not officially in until today, he's certainly taken a lot of heat from the right.

"I'm running for United States Senate because America's in deep trouble," Thompson also says in the video, adding, "I'll focus on job creation, so we can get families back to work."

Thompson had previously filed paperwork with the Federal Election Commission to raise money and his team has been sending releases and other emails with a camapign logo for weeks. He filed just after the end of the third quarter fundraising period, so he'll have a full quarter under his belt when the fourth quarter numbers come out at the end of the year.

Multiple outlets are reporting that Virginia Republican Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli is planning to seek the Republican nomination for governor in 2013. And while some Democrats may be tempted to celebrate the news and proclaim that Cuccinelli is considered by some to be too far to the right to win, they do so at their own peril.

He proved an ideological conservative can win in heavily-Democratic Fairfax County, where one out of every seven residents of Virginia lives, during his two state Senate campaigns in 2003 and 2007.

After just barely winning reelection by about 100 votes, he topped a Fairfax County Democrat, former Del. Steve Shannon, in the 2009 attorney general's race by 15 points. He actually picked up over 17,000 more votes than GOP Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling did in his re-election run. Bolling is considered Cuccinelli's main potential GOP opponent for governor.

A run by Cuccinelli is not unexpected, as he's long been looking at higher office. And word of his pending announcement -- said to be within days -- comes just before Cuccinelli is set to receive national air time on Saturday.

Conan O'Brien on Wednesday presented Herman Cain's new campaign ad in which he fights back against charges of infidelity.

"Jimmy Carter never cheated on his wife and we had 7 percent unemployment," the narrator in the fake ad says. "Bill Clinton cheated on his wife every chance he could get and we had only 4 percent unemployment, 1 percent inflation and a balanced budget. Herman Cain: Because when presidents get laid, you get paid."

Don't miss today's Must See Moment at 3:30 when Conan presents video of the former presidents who attended the Victoria's Secret fashion show:

Take our late-night poll after the jump...

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Cuccinelli will run for governor of Virginia in 2013, while Cain hints he could be leaving the presidential race. Meanwhile, Gary Herbert gets a second GOP challenger, Ben Nelson gets more reinforcements, and Iowa viewers get their first TV ad from Romney. Here's today's rundown:

9) The argument, in South Carolina politics, over whether it is indeed a great day or not.

8) Democratic allies keep tacking on help on behalf of Sen. Ben Nelson, D-Neb.: Majority PAC , the super PAC spending money to help Senate Democrats get elected, is up this week with a small ad buy on his behalf.

Nelson has indicated he could retire after this term, but the fact that a top Democratic group is still putting money behind his re-election suggests they think he's sticking around.

7) More bad news for former New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson: The Wall Street Journal reports he is being investigated by a federal grand jury over possible campaign-finance violations stemming from his 2008 White House bid, including allegations that he arranged for supporters to pay off a woman who planned to say they had engaged in an extramarital affair.

6) Utah Republican Gov. Gary Herbert, who is disliked by many tea party activists in the state, now has a second GOP challenger: Morgan Philpot, who challenged Democratic Rep. Jim Matheson in 2010. GOP State Rep. Ken Sumsion was the first to announce his challenge against Herbert.

Last year, Philpot took 46 percent of the vote against Matheson, who represents a conservative Salt Lake City-area district.