The Reasons for Democratic Optimism in Wisconsin
On Wednesday, I took a closer look at the reasons Republicans should be optimistic about the chances that GOP Gov. Scott Walker will survive a recall effort. Today, a glance at the reasons Democrats should be bullish about the prospect of unseating the first-term governor:
The Energy Level: After the summer recalls ended with Democrats falling short of their oft-repeated goal of retaking control of the state Senate, many were left wondering if the wind was potentially taken out of the sails of a Walker recall effort, and whether such a push would even be launched at all.
You don't have to look any further than the signature collection process right now to get a better sense of how energized activists are. With about a month left to get the requisite 540,000, Democrats nearly reached the target 540,000 signatures with a month still left to go on the clock.
Granted, not everyone who takes the 30 seconds to sign a petition would ultimately vote against Walker, but the speed of the collection process should concern GOP strategists.
A Walker Recall Election Likely Won't Be The Only Recall Election: Overlooked in the effort to get Walker's name on the ballot next year is the fact that Democrats are targeting four GOP state senators as well. Activists say they are on pace to trigger recalls in the four districts; if they do, it will mean another opportunity to put control of the state's upper chamber in the hands of voters (Republicans currently hold a slim 17-16 advantage)
Democratic strategists note that the districts recall efforts are being waged in are higher in Democratic performance than the two seats the party picked up over the summer.
Here's one possibility: Walker survives a recall election, but Democrats pick up at least one seat in the state Senate. Then, the overall effort will be viewed as at least a partial victory. Moreover, Democrats can rally their base by raising the possibility of control of the state Senate and the governor's mansion.
Success Elsewhere: With a presidential election on the horizon, and millions spent on the summer recall effort which fell short of the big prize, labor is faced with big spending decisions. But a resounding victory in Ohio to overturn a controversial law that curbed collective bargaining for public employees -- which was similar, in many ways, to the Wisconsin law Walker signed that triggered the first round of recalls -- gave new life to labor, which could be tempted to keep its momentum going in Wisconsin.
It's A Presidential Year: While the recalls will take place much earlier than the November general election, the thinking goes that since it is a presidential year, more people will be paying attention to politics, and turnout will likely be higher than it was this year.
This could, of course, work to the advantage of Republicans too, in the purple state. But Wisconsin has voted for the Democratic nominee for president the last six times, so there is precedent to suggest a potential upside for Democrats.
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