What We Learned: Book Smart
What we at The Hotline learned this week:
-- Herman Cain was rightly criticized for using his White House bid as a vehicle for book sales. When Newt Gingrich takes the weekend off for a book signing at Mt. Vernon and a French horn concert just two weeks before the Iowa caucuses, it's hard not to compare the two.
-- Mitt Romney has played the expectations game masterfully since entering the presidential race this summer, but with Iowa looming and the nomination his for the taking, Romney's campaign is finally playing to win instead of playing not to lose. In the span of 24 hours leading into this weekend, Romney launched substantial ad campaigns in the first three nominating states - Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina - while his super PAC, Restore Our Future, made a massive $300,000 ad buy in the fourth primary state of Florida.
Romney is now playing for keeps in all four states, and the risk of that strategy - i.e., the media coverage of an under-performance in Iowa or South Carolina - is far outweighed by the potential reward of strong showings in all four January contests, which would give him a head of steam entering February. If that happens, it becomes academic: Nevada, Michigan and Arizona are February's three major contests, and Romney is favored to win all three states. We may not be in for a long slog, after all.
-- A new USA Today/Gallup poll released this week showed President Obama leading Romney by just 1 point among registered voters nationwide, while Obama's lead swelled to 6 points against Gingrich. But how predictive are election horse-race polls 11 months before voters cast their ballots for the next president? According to experts at a briefing for reporters hosted by Gallup on Wednesday in Washington, not very.
Temple University professor Christopher Wlezien has been studying the relationship between survey data, particularly trial heats and presidential approval ratings, and the eventual outcome of the election for decades. He said we are approaching a critical time: the polls become far more predictive during the first and second quarters of an election year. Wlezien urged reporters and consumers of these surveys to "think of the first 75 days" of 2012 as they monitor Obama's approval rating and his standing against the eventual Republican nominee.
-- If Gingrich hopes to win Florida, he'll have to overcome some challenges. Restore Our Future launched a $300,000 TV ad campaign in the state attacking the former House Speaker's record. Gingrich's campaign hopes his new state director, Jose Mallea will lift the former Speaker's profile in the state. Still, Gingrich can't seem to shake questions about his stance on Medicare, both in debate this week and on the campaign trail.
--There is a reason Democrats have had very limited success statewide in Texas: it's very difficult for the party to win there. And when you can't raise any money and are not active on the trail it makes a difficult task near impossible. Democrat Ricardo Sanchez dropped out of the Senate race this week, following a stretch during which time he could do neither well. We've come a long way since his buzzy entrance into the race when the DSCC was pumping up the party's chances in the red state.
-- This week saw some action in the Beehive state, and while Republican Gov. Gary Herbert may be feeling good after Democratic Rep. Jim Matheson decided to pass on a challenge against him, Republican Sen. Orrin Hatch, can't be too excited to hear state Sen. Dan Liljenquist resigned. Hatch got lucky when GOP Rep. Jason Chaffetz passed on the race, but it looks like he won't be so lucky this time. The state lawmaker, widely expected to enter the Senate race early next year, is popular with tea partiers and also hoping to command some establishment support.
-- For the GOP, the name of the redistricting game has been more about protecting vulnerable members than creating new opportunities to pick up more seats. That's why Republicans were celebrating over their early Christmas present, a map in Pennsylvania that could land the party as many as 13 of 18 seats. It's possible that GOPers will end up protecting more seats in the state (as many as six) than they'll end up gaining in North Carolina (as many as 4). That's all the more impressive, given that Pennsylvania is a Dem-leaning state.
-- The Supreme Court, by choosing late last week to hear a case staying the court-drawn redistricting map in Texas, has guaranteed itself its biggest role in an election since 2000. If the voting is close, the particulars of Texas's map could swing control of the House. Plus, between Citizens United and the upcoming decisions on redistricting and the health care lawsuit, each party's presidential nominee will likely have a lot to say about the Court, and why he needs to be the one picking its next justice.
-- Combined with Republicans winning a heated battle over new maps in Ohio, and the Supreme Court overturning a Dem-friendly map in Texas, it's been a very good week on the redistricting front for the GOP. It means that many of its once-vulnerable members are in a better position to withstand an electorate which views Congress and many of its members very unfavorably.
-- Recall organizers in Wisconsin generated a lot of buzz on Thursday with the announcement that they have collected more than 500,000 signatures, making it very likely that Republican Gov. Scott Walker will face a recall election next year. But another equally important number also surfaced Thursday: Walker, who has already started running TV ads defending his record, has raised $5 million for his campaign since July. Recall organizers might not have any problem collecting enough signatures to force an election, but actually defeating the deep-pocketed Walker may not be so easy.
Join the Discussion
The National Journal Group has the right (but not the obligation) to monitor the comments and to remove any materials it deems inappropriate.
Comments powered by Disqus