January 2012

Updated at 11:25 p.m.

Democrat Suzanne Bonamici will be the next member of Congress from Oregon's 1st District, filling the seat previously held by former Democratic Rep. David Wu.

The Associated Press has called the all-mail special congressional election for Bonamici. With 68 percent of precincts counted, Bonamici, formerly a state senator, led Republican Rob Cornilles 54 percent to 39 percent.

Though the campaign was rocky at times and negative for long stretches, victory was rarely in doubt for Bonamici. Democrats hold a significant registration edge (42 percent to 30 percent Republican, with the remainder unaffiliated with either major party) in the district and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee invested over $1 million in the race to avoid another special election surprise along the lines of last year's upset GOP victory in New York's 9th District, Anthony Weiner's old seat. The National Republican Congressional Committee never offered similar support to Cornilles.

A Cornilles internal poll two weeks ago showed the Republican pulling closer to Bonamici, but public polling suggested the Democrat was maintaining a healthy lead on her rival. That perception was reinforced last week when Cornilles went negative, and Bonamici went positive, in their final television ads.

"Congresswoman-elect Suzanne Bonamici is a champion for Oregon middle class families, consumers, and seniors and House Democrats look forward to welcoming her to Congress," said DCCC Chairman Steve Israel in a statement. "She will solve problems and stand up for the middle class instead of billionaires and Big Oil and help reignite the American dream."

The special election was triggered in August when Wu resigned from Congress following a string of revelations about erratic behavior, capped by allegations of sexual misconduct from the teenaged daughter of a Wu campaign donor. Cornilles, who ran against Wu in 2010, and Bonamici won the ensuing primaries by commanding margins and immediately set into each other with barrages of attacks.

Updated at 7:51 p.m.

Hours before the polls were set to close in Florida's GOP presidential primary, the Sunshine State's congressional politics grabbed headlines with a major shakeup that reshapes three House races and affects the GOP Senate race.

The tension caused by the Florida Legislature's congressional redistricting maps sprang loose, as Republican Reps. Allen West and Tom Rooney decided to run for reelection in new districts, prompting Republican Senate hopeful Adam Hasner to move toward running in West's current 22nd District.

Rooney announced on Tuesday afternoon that he will run in the new 17th District, closely followed by West saying that he will run in Rooney's new 18th District.

Though West and Rooney are moving, the new 17th and 18th Districts are not entirely foreign to either. Thirty-seven percent of Rooney's current constituents will fall in the new 17th District while 23 percent of West's constituents will fall into the new 18th.

Rooney's chosen district contains much of the inland South Central region that he currently represents. However, those counties were severed from Rooney's home along the Atlantic coast, in Tequesta, by redistricting -- under Florida's Fair Districts law, legislators had to make congressional districts more compact this year, and Rooney's old district wound from west to east across the state, sometimes through corridors only miles wide. By taking the 17th District, Rooney is sticking with the GOP base of his old seat: The new 17th gave almost 56 percent of its presidential vote to John McCain in 2008.

A review of new polling data released this week reveals some signs of trouble for Democrats trying to hold Senate seats for their party in New Mexico and Montana.

A bipartisan survey of registered voters conducted at the beginning of the month by Republican firm Public Opinion Strategies and Democratic firm Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz & Assoc. showed matchups between the likely nominees within the margin of error in both places.

In New Mexico, Democratic Rep. Martin Heinrich leads former Republican Rep. Heather Wilson by one point -- 45 percent to 44 percent -- in the survey.

It's the first non-automated public poll of the matchup between the two frontrunners. Both face competitive primaries but neither of their respective challengers has proven to be much of a force thus far.

Scott Walker isn't the only Wisconsin Republican facing the threat of a recall election, and Democrats are moving swiftly forward with their plans for other races where a recall is likely in the offing.

Wisconsin Democrats announced three candidates for the anticipated slate of state Senate recall elections. Some names to get to know, per the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel:

In its announcement, the state Democratic Party did not announce a challenger to state Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald, the highest-profile Republican under threat of a recall.

Democrats picked up two seats in last year's recall, narrowing the GOP edge in the upper chamber to 17-16, and falling just short of claiming the majority, a publicly-indicated goal.

But even if Democrats win back control of the upper chamber in this year's recalls, it won't be voters' last word in 2012: In November, about half of the chamber will face general elections.

The list of Democratic options to replace Gov. Bev Perdue in North Carolina is being pared down in a hurry.

And that may not be a bad thing for Democrats.

Rep. Heath Shuler announced on Tuesday that he will not be running. His announcement came just hours after Charlotte Mayor Anthony Foxx said that he won't run, joining high profile Attorney General Roy Cooper, who said last week that he is not making a bid.

"I will not be running for governor of North Carolina in 2012. It is an honor to even be discussed as a potential candidate for such an esteemed office, but now is not my time," was all Shuler said in a statement.

The buzziest remaining possibility is Erskine Bowles. Bowles, the former University of North Carolina president who chaired the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility, stacked up better than other Democrats against presumptive Republican nominee Pat McCrory in an automated poll conducted by Democratic pollster PPP that was released on Monday. Bowles has run statewide twice before -- for the Senate in 2002 and 2004 -- but came up short on both occasions as his party's nominee.

The last thing Democrats want to see is a contentious, crowded, chaotic primary without clear frontrunners.

But even if more names take themselves out of the running, there is already an active primary in the works: both Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton and State Rep. Bill Faison are running. So it doesn't look like Democrats will be able to avoid competition altogether, even if Bowles or another high-profile name jumps in.

It won't be Charlotte Mayor versus (former) Charlotte Mayor in North Carolina this year.

Current Democratic Mayor Anthony Foxx won't run for governor, he announced on Tuesday morning.

Foxx's full statement:

Foxx is popular in Charlotte; he won reelection last November with an overwhelming 67 percent of the vote, which according to the Charlotte Observer is the largest winning margin in a mayoral race since 1999.

Former Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory is kicking off his Republican bid today. McCrory served as mayor of Charlotte from 1995-2009. While McCrory should cruise to the GOP nomination, the Democratic race is in flux, following Gov. Bev Perdue's announcement last week that she will retire rather than run for reelection this year.

Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton and state Rep. Bill Faison have said they are running. Along with Foxx, Attorney General Roy Cooper has said he is not. Meanwhile, a host of other potential names has surfaced. The list of maybes includes Erskine Bowles, former Rep. Bob Etheridge, Rep. Brad Miller, and Rep. Heath Shuler, among others.

-- Updated at 11:35 a.m.

CORRECTION: The previous version of this story incorrectly stated the number of House Democrats who are retiring outright. That number is 11.

Rep. Dan Burton, R-Ind., announced Tuesday on the Indiana Statehouse floor that he will not run for reelection to Congress and will retire at the end of the current session.

"I wanted to come here today to tell you that this will probably be the last time I will be addressing you folks, because I'm planning to not run for Congress again this year and I wanted to in effect end my career where I started because I love this place," Burton said on the Statehouse floor on Tuesday morning. Burton served in the state legislature before he was elected to the U.S. House.

Burton was first elected in 1982 but was facing another serious primary challenge: A poll earlier this month showed Burton narrowly leading a GOP primary field, but only pulling 29 percent support. Burton won a five-way primary in 2010 with just 30 percent of the vote.

The January survey, conducted by the Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research (R) for the Campaign for Primary Accountability, showed Burton at 29 percent, former Rep. David McIntosh at 20 percent, 2010 candidate John McGoff at 14 percent, Jack Lugar at 11 percent and former U.S. Attorney Susan Brooks at four percent.

The Indiana primary will be held on May 8.

Burton serves on the House Foreign Affairs Committee and chairs the Europe and Eurasia subcommittee. He also serves on the Oversight and Government Reform Committee.

House Race Hotline (subscriber) takes a closer look at the anticipated outcome in Oregon's 1st District, where ballots are due today in the all-mail special election.

After late, underdog surges in the New York specials last year, Democrats received a mild scare two weeks ago when Rob Cornilles's campaign released a poll showing the Republican within the margin of error, though still behind. But most everything since then points to a snoozer when balloting closes Jan. 31.

-- Yes, the National Republican Congressional Committee went up with a coordinated expenditure for Cornilles soon after the poll, but that was its only involvement in the campaign, and it was limited. The real money came from uncapped independent expenditures, like the $1 million+ the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spent to boost Suzanne Bonamici. The NRCC never indicated a willingness to make that kind of investment.

-- Last week, each campaign released closing TV ads, and it's not hard to see who's ahead based on their messages. Cornilles attacked Bonamici's connections to former Rep. David Wu, a tactic he bypassed earlier. Meanwhile, Cornilles didn't feature in Bonamici's last, purely positive ad.

-- Ballots went out Jan. 13 for the all-mail election, and over 30 percent were returned by this past weekend. Bonamici's campaign said last week that Democrats have a 16-point edge ballot returns, compared to an 11-point registration edge. That gap will drop as rural, GOP-leaning counties tally more ballots, but Democrats may end up over-represented in the final tally, a great sign for Bonamici.

Not every special election was made equal. This one started to look exciting a few weeks ago, but House race junkies will have to wait until the special election to fill Rep. Gabrielle Giffords's, D-Ariz., seat for more intrigue. Oregon 1st District is playing to its Democratic-leaning type.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. The campaigns of Romney and Gingrich move to re-frame the race ahead of an expected Romney win in Florida tonight while Rob Cornilles makes a plea for the "Colbert bump" ahead of an expected loss in Oregon. Meanwhile, John Brunner spends a lot of his own money on the campaign, but is absent from yet another debate. And about that Warren/Brown super PAC agreement: there are gaps that one group is already exploiting. Here's today's rundown:

8) Second-year Republican governors are striking more moderate poses in 2012, the New York Times reports.

7) As Erskine Bowles mulls a North Carolina gubernatorial bid, here's a colorful quote from the Democrat last year worth keeping in perspective: "I have empirical data that I was a terrible politician," he said, referring to his two unsuccessful runs for U.S. Senate.

6) CREDO Mobile has launched a super PAC that is targeting Republican members of the House including Reps. Sean Duffy, R-Wis., Steve King, R-Iowa, Allen West, R-Fla., Joe Walsh, R-Ill., Frank Guinta, R-N.H., and Chip Cravaack, R-Minn.

CREDO is in the if-you-can't-beat-'em-join'-em camp. It's president says "we'd shut down every Super PAC in a minute if we could" and the group supports repeal of "Citizens United." But the decision for the group to form a super PAC is illustrative of the political realities of the current environment.

5) Businessman John Brunner raised $230,000 and pitched in over $1 million of his own money for the Missouri Senate race. It's a sign that he's serious about running and his money will make him a threat. His high initial burn rate is worth flagging (he is the only Republican who has already gone up on TV, so that explains some of the money spent): he finished the quarter with just $209,000 in the bank.

4) Meanwhile, Rep. Todd Akin and former Treasurer Sarah Steelman debated on Monday. Brunner, once again, did not participate, and Steelman criticized him for his absence.

Some fundraising news, just one day away from the Jan. 31 deadline:

Senate:

-- Former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson brought in $656,000 in in his first three months raising money for his Senate bid, his campaign announced on Monday. Thompson finished the year with around $544,000 in the bank.

On the surface, Thompson posted a solid number for his first quarter in the race. But considering his long history and deep connections in Wisconsin and DC, the haul isn't overly impressive. Former Rep. Mark Neumann raised $518,000 in the fourth quarter. State House Speaker Jeff Fitzgerald, the third major candidate seeking the GOP nomination, has not released his fundraising numbers yet.

-- Sen. Maria Cantwell, D-Wash., raised $1.45 million in the fourth quarter and has more than $4 million in the bank. It's a very respectable haul, and she appears to be in good shape for her reelection campaign: her opponent, Republican state Sen. Michael Baumgartner, raised just $120,000 during his first quarter in the race.

-- Former WWE CEO Linda McMahon announced raising $326,000 during the fourth quarter. The number isn't impressive, but McMahon spent $50 million on her 2010 Connecticut Senate bid, and could self-fund again to whatever extent she wants. She is fundraising in order to build a grassroots network, not because she actually needs to money to run. And her primary opponent, former Rep. Chris Shays, raised just $422,000 -- falling far short of the $1 million goal he had set for himself.

House:

-- New Jersey Democratic Reps. Bill Pascrell and Steve Rothman both filed their year-end FEC reports today, and Pascrell "won" the fourth quarter: He raised over $190,000 and finished the year with over $850,000 raised and almost $1.5 million cash on hand. Rothman raised just under $99,000 in the fourth quarter, over $500,000 for the year, and $1.7 million cash on hand.

-- Though Pascrell outraised Rothman, they weren't actually in competition during the fourth quarter. Their incumbent-versus-incumbent match-up didn't materialize until the very end of December, when almost all donations were already in hand. So Pascrell's camp can celebrate their bigger fourth quarter (and yearly) haul, and Rothman's team can celebrate their greater cash on hand, but we won't really know how the two congressmen are competing in the money race until April.

With the state of the economy on everyone's minds this year, social issues have largely been on the back burner in Senate and gubernatorial races across the country. But in both Washington state's Senate and governor's contests, social issues -- specifically, marriage-related issues -- have cropped up recently.

In December, Democratic Sen. Maria Cantwell's challenger, Republican state Sen. Michael Baumgartner, caused controversy with a press release responding to Cantwell's support for non-prescription access to emergency contraception for girls under the age of 17. The release contained the line, "Baumgartner noted that Cantwell, who is unmarried, has frequently voted to undermine the role of parents in child-rearing."

The press release caused some controversy, and Baumgartner later told Hotline On Call it was "apparently poorly written."

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. An under-the-radar Congressional special election wraps up tomorrow, as the date for a closely-watched one has been set. The Republican establishment rallies around a Casey challenger, but Pennsylvania Republicans aren't united yet. And Romney surges in Florida ahead of Tuesday's primary. Here's today's rundown:

11) The New York Times scrutinizes the last-minute pardons issued by former Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour and finds "a significant share contained appeals from members of prominent Mississippi families, major Republican donors or others from the higher social strata of Mississippi life."

10) A brewing scandal for Rep. Michael Grimm, R-N.Y.? The freshman congressman raised over a half-million dollars last cycle with the help of a rabbi, who is now being investigated for embezzling millions from his congregation.

9) Arizona Republican Gov. Jan Brewer has slated April 17 for the date of the special primary election for former Democratic Rep. Gabrielle Giffords's, seat, with a special general election on June 12.

Meanwhile, election results will be tallied tomorrow night in the special election to succeed former Rep. David Wu, D-Ore. Democrat Suzanne Bonamici is the favorite to defeat GOP businessman Rob Cornilles, who lost to Wu in 2010.

8) The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and National Republican Senate Committee have tapped two familiar hands to direct their independent expenditures efforts this cycle - former DSCC political director Martha McKenna and the NRSC's Mike DuHaime, who led the committee's IE strategy last cycle.

7) Businessman Steve Welch won a big victory on Saturday, earning the endorsement of the Pennsylvania Republican Party in the GOP Senate race. Welch, a former Democrat who voted for President Obama in 2008, was favored to snag the backing in the lead-up to Saturday's meeting and had earned the endorsement of Gov. Tom Corbett.

In 2008, President Obama won the state of North Carolina by just over 14,000 votes out of over 4.2 million cast, marking the first time since 1976 that a Democrat carried the Tar Heel State in the presidential race. Four years later, Obama and national Democrats are making a hard push there, electing to hold the Democratic National Convention in Charlotte and preparing to invest significant resources in one of 2012's premiere battlegrounds.

But as the party gears up for a full court press in North Carolina as it seeks to repeat wins at the presidential level and in the gubernatorial race, it will have to overcome several obstacles, as illustrated by developments in the state in the years since Obama's victory.

Gov. Bev Perdue's Thursday announcement that she is retiring illustrates one the main challenges Democrats face in the state, holding onto the governor's mansion. First elected in 2008, Perdue was hamstrung by poor approval ratings and faced multiple PR setbacks during the last year. Her 2008 Republican opponent, now former Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory, has spent much of the past year gearing up for a rematch and has put up impressive fundraising numbers.

"I've always thought her problems were personality based, which is very problematic when you are on the wrong side of that," said veteran North Carolina Republican strategist Paul Shumaker, of Perdue's struggles.

Perdue's tight 2008 victory (she won by 3 percent) can be attributed to several factors. One, Obama's presence on the ticket was a boost down ballot. According to the Almanac of American Politics, Obama received 40 percent more votes than Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., did in 2004, while Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., only upped George W. Bush's total by nine percent.

What we at The Hotline learned this week:

-- This was the week former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney will probably point to if he wins Florida and locks up the GOP nomination. Between a more aggressive debate performance, renewed attacks on former Speaker Newt Gingrich, and a somewhat more forward-looking stump speech, Romney got past his disappointing South Carolina finish, and could win the Sunshine State by double-digits, if his trajectory holds.

The big question for Romney going forward is whether his primary opponents will eventually rally around his campaign and how damaged he emerges from the primary. It's looking like the damage is relatively minimal. An NBC/WSJ poll showed Romney's fav/unfav at 31/36, with a lot of voters still forming their opinion of him. For comparison's sake, Bill Clinton's fav/unfav at this point in 1992 were underwater, and his fav/unfav was 34/46 as late as April 1992.

-- Gingrich has spent a lot of time this week hurling insults at his chief rival - capping off Friday assailing Romney's character in a new hard-hitting attack ad. The new line is a shift for the former Speaker, marking the first time Gingrich has questioned Romney's moral code. Releasing such a personal attack against Romney is a gamble for Gingrich. While it is possible Florida voters will respond to the allegations, the move only amps up the stakes for the Jan. 31 primary.

-- It's looking more and more like there will be a Democratic primary in the anticipated recall election of Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker It's hard not to see a primary as a negative for Democrats' hopes of ousting Walker. The prospective candidates are mostly unknowns. They likely will spend weeks beating up on each other in the primary, while Walker continues to flood the airwaves with ads touting his legislative record. If Democrats could recruit a field-clearing, high profile candidate (paging Sen. Herb Kohl), they'd be in better shape.

-- On the surface, the 2012 North Carolina governor's race mirrors the 2007 Louisiana governor's race - A female Democratic governor retires after a single term, rather than face a rematch against a Republican she narrowly beat 4 years earlier. But Pat McCrory can hardly expect to waltz into the governorship with the same ease that Bobby Jindal did. Fundamentally, Louisiana is a much more Republican state than the Tarheel State, giving John McCain 59 percent of its votes in 2008, compared to just 49% in North Carolina. And by 2007, Louisiana Republicans had started their march towards capturing every constitutional office in the state, while Democrats today still control 8 of the 10 state offices in North Carolina.

Here's your end of day FEC wrap, complete with several news dumps from some campaigns looking to unload some poor figures heading into the weekend:

Senate:

-- Former Rep. Heather Wilson: The Republican Wilson raised an underwhelming $375,000 and finished with $1.1 million in the bank. That's likely better than Lt. Gov. John Sanchez, who has struggled to raise money, but it's a bit behind the pace set by Democratic Rep. Martin Heinrich, who pulled in $483,000 raised and banked almost $1.4 million. Wilson's numbers are not disastrous, but they are nothing to write home about, either.

-- Indiana Treasurer Richard Mourdock: Mourdock has struggled to raise money and the latest report is no exception. He raised just $386,000 and banked $362,000. He had about $291,000 in the bank at the end of the third quarter. Sen. Richard Lugar has $4 million in the bank, so the disparity is glaring. If Mourdock wants to prove his worth to national conservative leaders in the hopes of winning their support. his latest report isn't going to help very much on that front.

-- Former North Dakota Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp: Heitkamp had a good second quarter, raising $500,000 in her first period as a Senate candidate. But she has some catching up to do: Berg finished with over $1 million in the bank at the end of the third quarter.

-- Former Connecticut Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz: Bysiewicz has struggled to raise money throughout her campaign. She announced raising just over $273,000 during the fourth quarter, finishing with $890,000 in the bank. By comparison, Rep. Chris Murphy raised $720,000 and entered 2012 with $2.5 million in the bank.

-- Nebraska state Sen. Deb Fischer: Fischer is running against Attorney General Jon Bruning and Treasurer Don Stenberg in the GOP race but while the other two announced six-figure hauls, Fischer raised just under $67,000. She does, however, notably have more money in the bank than does Stenberg.

House:

-- The National Republican Congressional Committee raised $2.7 million in December, finishing the year with $54.1 million raised and $15.2 million cash on hand. That puts the NRCC on a stronger footing than at this time two years ago. But the GOP is in the majority now, and the majority House campaign committee has outraised the minority by about $20 million each of the last three cycles. This year, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee raised $61.5 million, over $7 million more than the NRCC. The NRCC has a cash on hand advantage (the DCCC has $11.6 million in the bank), but the off-year fundraising is a small victory for the DCCC. It's also a reminder of the value holding the White House has across the Democratic Party.

Virginia is shaping up to be one of the lynchpin states for both parties in their pursuits of the White House and control of the Senate this November, and a new poll shared with Hotline On Call shows the two races at the top of the ticket deadlocked less than 10 months before Election Day.

The poll, conducted in mid-January by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research for a private client, shows President Obama and Mitt Romney neck-and-neck, while former Sen. George Allen, R-Va., and former Democratic Gov. Tim Kaine run dead even.

Obama leads Romney in the race for the commonwealth's 13 electoral votes by only one point, 45 percent to 44 percent, well within the poll's margin of error of +/- 3.9 percentage points. Eleven percent of likely voters are undecided. Romney leads by five points among independents, but Obama hoards 89 percent of Democrats to inch in front of the former Massachusetts governor.

While Romney runs virtually even with Obama, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich trails the president by a double-digit margin, 49 percent to 38 percent, with 13 percent undecided. Obama also leads Gingrich by 11 points among independents.

Just two days before the Florida primary, the Sunday Shows are focused on the Sunshine State this weekend.

Face the Nation will broadcast live from Miami, FL, for its first one-hour episode this weekend, finally joining its peers after years of lobbying for a longer time slot. Host Bob Schieffer will be joined by Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., who will talk about the Republican presidential race, as well as her own reelection campaign, as well as Republican National Committee chairman Reince Priebus and Democratic National Committee chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz who will talk about 2012.

Former Speaker Newt Gingrich will make two television appearances on Sunday, stopping by both This Week and Fox News Sunday, where he'll be joined by Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis. The latter appearance could prove particularly interesting; Gingrich has taken hits from his Republican challengers for criticizing Ryan's budget plan as "right-wing social engineering" in an appearance on Meet the Press last year.

Former Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pa, will be on Meet the Press, followed by Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., who is backing Mitt Romney's campaign, and former Sen. Fred Thompson, R-Tenn., who is backing Gingrich. Florida Gov. Rick Scott will also talk about the Republican race in his home state on State of the Union.

Pres. Obama's State of the Union speech will also be a major topic on Sunday, with Obama adviser David Axelrod stopping by Meet the Press and House Speaker John Boehner responding to the president's call for compromise on This Week.

Check out the full listings after the jump.

In the early stages of the Pennsylvania Senate race, the field of Republicans vying to challenge Democratic Sen. Bob Casey has been described as crowded and without any clear frontrunner. But that could change this weekend when the Pennsylvania GOP state committee meets to decide on an endorsement on Saturday. In the aftermath of the official party selection, three GOP candidates will be left as relevant factors in the race to take on Casey:

The Establishment Choice: GOP operatives in Pennsylvania, including those working for rival campaigns, expect businessman Steve Welch to win the party nod on Saturday. Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Corbett, the de facto leader of the Republican Party in the state, endorsed Welch last week, and his political team has been lobbying state committee members on Welch's behalf.

Receiving the backing of the party would automatically vault Welch into the top tier in the GOP field, but the endorsement does not guarantee him the nomination. He faces two major problems moving forward in the primary. First, having never held elected office, Welch is an unknown entity to most Pennsylvania Republicans.

More importantly, Welch switched his party registration to Democrat in 2005, donated money to former Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak in 2006 and voted for President Obama in the 2008 Democratic primary. While an endorsement from the state party would provide some cover for Welch, his opponents are still licking their chops at the chance to use Welch's past in campaign ads. Welch will also need to raise enough money -- or spend enough of his personal fortune -- to raise his profile in the state.

If the state party endorses anyone other than Welch this weekend, it would likely be Tim Burns, who mounted an unsuccessful congressional bid last year in the state's 12th congressional district. If Burns were to win the endorsement, he would likely occupy the establishment candidate space moving forward. (Burns and Welch have both indicated they will likely drop out of the race without the party endorsement). But at this point, few expect Burns to get the nod, and Corbett's team has been pressuring him to make another run in the 12th.

The Self-Funder: Tom Smith has earned himself a spot in the top tier thanks to his willingness to pour his own money into the race. The wealthy former coal executive has already put $5 million of his own cash into his bid. He has also earned positive reviews from local conservative groups.

One Democratic name to keep an eye on the all-but-certain Wisconsin recall election: Rep. Ron Kind, who is leaving the door open to a possible run and is hinting he will zero in on a decision soon. The LaCrosse Tribune:

Kind is from the western part of the state, a more moderate area that is different from Madison and Milwaukee, something that would make him an intriguing general election candidate. Given that his district is becoming more favorable following redistricting, Kind would be giving up a lot by abandoning a House reelection bid. That, after all was one of the reasons most observers didn't expect him to make a Senate run.

An attorney for the state Government Accountability Board predicted earlier this week that late June could be the earliest an election could be held. The uncertainty centers on how long it will take to certify petition signatures and whether there will be a contested Democratic primary.

That's especially significant for Kind because the filing deadline to run for Congress is June 1 in Wisconsin.

A primary would be held four weeks before a general election and six weeks after the board certifies petition signatures.

A Kind spokesperson did not immediately respond to a message seeking comment.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Romney performs well in the latest debate, and sees some encouraging news in the latest Q poll of Florida. Meanwhile, the race to replace Bev Perdue is on in North Carolina, but Roy Cooper won't be in the mix. Here's today's rundown:

9) Round two of Bill Maloney versus Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin is officially underway in West Virginia, as Maloney, the 2011 GOP nominee, announced his campaign on Thursday.

8) House Democrats like President Obama's confrontational posture toward congressional Republicans.

7) Americans Elect has gained ballot access in Maine, the 15th state in which the group has been granted access.

6) Daily Caller's Matt Lewis spotted a number of errors in a Reuters piece on Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla.

5) According to the latest Suffolk University/7NEWS poll of the Florida Senate race, Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson leads Republican Rep. Connie Mack 42-32 percent, former state House Majority Leader Adam Hasner 47-23 percent, former Sen. George LeMieux 46-22 percent and former Army Col. Mike McCalister 45-26 percent.

4) With just over a month to go until the filing deadline closes in North Carolina, the scramble to replace retiring Democratic Gov. Bev Perdue on the ticket in North Carolina has begun. Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton is running, and Attorney General Roy Cooper -- who many viewed as a top prospect -- is not.

Then there are a whole host of maybes, including: Former Rep. Bob Etheridge, state Rep. Bill Faison, Charlotte Mayor Anthony Foxx, Rep. Mike McIntyre and former state Treasurer Richard Moore.

Progressive Change Campaign Committee is pushing for Rep. Brad Miller, who announced on Thursday that he is not running for reelection. Rep. Heath Shuler is also considering a run. Bottom line: There is no consensus favorite right now, meaning a competitive primary could ensue. That stands in contrast to the GOP side, which has already rallied behind Pat McCrory.

Jon Stewart on Thursday lampooned Newt Gingrich's campaign promise to colonize the moon.

Gingrich "realized the Earth is very sick and now he wants to leave it for a younger planet," Stewart joked.

And don't miss today's Must See Moment at 1:45 when Jimmy Kimmel presents the "Jersey Shore" edition of the latest Republican debate:

Some notable House/Senate fundraising news from Thursday as we approach Jan. 31:

House:

-- Rep. Tom Latham, R-Iowa, released robust fourth quarter campaign numbers today: $345,000 raised and over $1.9 million cash on hand to start 2012. Latham's campaign is touting the cash on hand number as an Iowa off-year record, but most importantly, it dwarfs that of Democratic Rep. Leonard Boswell, his likely opponent. Boswell has yet to release fourth quarter numbers, but his cash on hand was under $400,000 after the third quarter.

-- Matt Doheny, a Republican running in New York's 23rd District, posted a very good initial quarter of fundraising. He raised over $300,000, which goes a long way in the Watertown and Plattsburgh media markets.

Senate:

-- Sen. Claire McCaskill, D-Mo., raised $1.4 million and ended 2011 with nearly $5 million in the bank. It's another solid haul for the vulnerable incumbent. Nearly two-thirds of McCaskill's donors gave less than $100. None of McCaskill's GOP opponents have released thier numbers yet.

It hasn't been Tommy Thompson's best week. But it wasn't without a silver lining.

My colleague Kevin Brennan noted on Tuesday that the former governor ran afoul of some the positions espoused by the current governor, who faces a very likely recall election this year.

Not a smart move; especially when you face an active GOP primary with the Club For Growth and Sen. Jim DeMint already actively working to defeat you.

Then, on Wednesday, Thompson was endorsed by Dick Morris, the controversial onetime Bill Clinton aide whose backing isn't exactly going to win him some much-needed good will from conservatives.

But the news wasn't all bad for Thompson. Despite all of the negative things said and written about the former governor, a Marquette Law School poll released this week showed that 49 percent of Wisconsin voters have a favorable opinion of him, while just 31 percent have an unfavorable opinion.

A review of the closing TV spots from the two candidates running in Oregon's 1st District special election tells you about all you need to know about the race's likely outcome. Republican Rob Cornilles released an ad on Wednesday that sought to tie Democrat Suzanne Bonamici to disgraced former Rep. David Wu; something of a Hail Mary pass. Bonamici, on the other hand released a TV ad on Thursday that is strictly positive.

"She'll vote to end the Bush tax breaks for millionaires and billionaires. Trim the deficit. And create jobs as a result," says an announcer in the ad. One word -- "Cornilles" -- is noticeable only in its absence.

Maybe Ed Martin will finally find his bowl of porridge that is just right.

The Show-Me State Republican who began the cycle as a Senate candidate then switched to the race in Missouri's 2nd District has switched once again, this time opting to run for attorney general. And the timing of his announcement is none too coincidental. The St. Louis Post-Dispatch:

Politically, it's not surprising. Martin was up against a very imposing opponent, former Ambassador Ann Wagner, who has run an impressive campaign so far and has put up some head-turning fundraising numbers.

Updated at 12:27 p.m.

North Carolina Gov. Bev Perdue, widely viewed as the cycle's most vulnerable Democratic incumbent governor, will not seek reelection in 2012, she announced on Thursday.

"I have spent my tenure in office -- and, in fact, my adult lifetime -- fighting for things that I care deeply about. And as anyone who knows me will tell you, I do not back down from tough fights," Perdue said in a statement. "But I understand this: We live in highly partisan times, where some people seem more worried about scoring political points than working together to address the real challenges our state faces. And it is clear to me that my race for re-election will only further politicize the fight to adequately fund our schools. A re-election campaign in this already divisive environment will make it more difficult to find any bipartisan solutions."

Perdue has been plagued by high disapproval ratings. An Elon University poll conducted in late September showed that 51 percent of North Carolina adults disapproved of the job Perdue was doing. Polling earlier in 2011 showed equally weak approval numbers.

Perdue was elected in 2008 in a close race against Republican Pat McCrory, the now former mayor of Charlotte who spent much of 2011 gearing up for a rematch. He announced in December that he will make second bid to become governor.

Lately, Perdue's luck hasn't been good. She was outraised during the second half of 2011 by McCrory and her office's handling of the release of unemployment figures has prompted congressional scrutiny.

With Perdue in the race, Democrats were faced with a tall task. Now, the party must find a candidate capable of taking on McCrory, who has been in campaign mode for many months. Some Democrats see Perdue's decision as an opportunity to make the race about the former mayor.

"My message has been and will continue to be that we must fix our broken government and broken economy and put our North Carolina resources back to work. That's why next week I plan to announce my intentions to seek the honor of serving as North Carolina's next Governor," McCrory said on Thursday afternoon.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Romney's winning the electability argument in Florida, Josh Mandel's absence from state Deposit Board meetings is attracting attention, Tester raises $1.2 million, it's not Miller's time in North Carolina and Gingrich has his sights set ... on the moon. Here's today's rundown:

10) New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie has carefully navigated social issues as governor -- an attribute that could make him an attractive VP choice.

9) Speaking of VP buzz, Sen. Marco Rubio, whose name will remain atop the speculation short list regardless of the GOP nominee, has some financial issues which could be raised during the vetting process. Reuters:

It could cut both ways. Many homeowners have struggled during the economic downturn to keep up with their own payments and Rubio's situation could inspire some empathy. However, as Reuters notes, Rubio has a reputation as a spending watchdog. These tidbits could cut against the grain of that image.

But it's also problematic for the Republican because his income - unlike many struggling Americans - is in the six figures and should sufficiently cover his expenses, including mortgage and loan payments.

8) Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu leads the Republican pack in his own poll of Arizona's Fourth District GOP race. The Public Opinion Strategies survey, conducted Jan. 18-19 shows Babeu at 31 percent, Rep. Paul Gosar at 23 percent and state Sen. Ron Gould at 19 percent.

7) Another productive quarter for Sen. Jon Tester, D-Mont., who raised nearly $1.2 million during the fourth quarter and finished the period with $3.8 million.

6) Ohio Treasurer Josh Mandel hasn't been to a single monthly meeting of the state Board of Deposit, the AP finds. More:

Mandel's fundraising numbers have been among the most impressive of any challenger, but his absence from his official duties and his lack of a campaign trail presence will only lead critics to continue to suggest that his focus has been solely on raising money, at the expense of his government responsibilities.

President Obama was a tax-cutting Oprah during his State of the Union address, Jon Stewart said on Wednesday as he reviewed the president's annual address. He wasn't too impressed -- especially by the way the president chose to start his speech.

"You open with, 'I killed bin Laden'?" Stewart asked in outrage. "Does Rick Springfield open with 'Jessie's Girl'? No!"

And don't miss today's Must See Moment at 1:00 when Jimmy Kimmel shows how one member of Congress responded to Obama's lead balloon of a joke:

Updated at 11:16 a.m.

Rep. Brad Miller, D-N.C., will retire rather than run against fellow North Carolina Democratic Rep. David Price in a new, merged district, he announced on Thursday morning.

"Because David has represented Wake County and I have represented none of Orange or Durham, I would be the underdog in a primary with David. I have begun campaigns in the past as the underdog, and campaigned with great energy, enthusiasm and joy," Miller said in a statement. "There would be no joy in this campaign."

Miller added that he does "not have an agreement with David to step aside now and run in two years when he retires, as has been widely rumored, nor have I tried to strike any deal. The reality is that if I sat out a term and returned to Congress, I would be starting over for most purposes."

Miller was first elected in 2002. North Carolina's Republican-controlled redistricting process put both Miller and Price in the same district, but Miller said Wednesday he didn't want to put the Democratic Party through a "divisive" primary.

An internal poll from the Price campaign showed Price 21 percentage points ahead of Miller in October. Miller and Price had taken light jabs at each other in the media. Miller had until Feb. 29 to officially file for the seat, but after speaking with supporters recently, Miller decided he couldn't got through with a primary against an old friend.

Miller played a strong role in drawing his current district as a member of the North Carolina state Senate, where he was chairman of the redistricting committee after the 2000 census. The new Democratic-leaning 4th District, in which Miller was contemplating a challenge to Price, reaches from Raleigh northwest to Durham and then takes a sharp turn south and snakes narrowly down to Fayetteville, its southern terminus. It cut away GOP-leaning areas of Miller's old constituency but also parts of his Wake County base, while leaving a little more of Price's old constituency intact.

"His decision today will avoid a divisive primary in the Fourth District if the unfair and illegal maps drawn by General Assembly Republicans are allowed to govern this election. I will continue to fight -- with Congressional and General Assembly colleagues -- to overturn them in court," Price said in a statement.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee raised $5.3 million in December, capping off $61.4 million of fundraising in 2011, according to figures given to The Hotline. The DCCC finished the year with $11.6 million cash on hand, and it retired its post-2010 campaign debt, which totaled $19 million at the start of the year.

The National Republican Congressional Committee, which has not yet released December numbers, had raised $51.8 million by the end of November and had $14.5 million cash on hand at that time.

A couple of notable Senate fundraising figures from the day as the numbers keep trickling in ahead of next Tuesday's deadline:

-- Linda Lingle: The former Republican governor put up a huge $1.76 million figure in Hawaii. Lingle, who is known for her strong fundraising ability, easily outpaced the Democratic frontrunner, Rep. Mazie Hirono, who raised $624,000 during the fourth quarter. (It's worth noting that Hirono has $1 million in the bank while Lingle has not released her cash on hand figure).

Expect outside groups on both sides to play in this race, bringing parity to the money chase. But Lingle's early haul is an awfully impressive show of strength.

-- Jon Bruning: Bruning raised over $400,000 and finished the period with $1.7 million in the bank. It's likely to be the best haul in the GOP field, but it's far from impressive. Treasurer Don Stenberg's anemic five-figure fundraising saw a huge boost (he raised about $250,000 in the fourth quarter) after Sen. Jim DeMint's, R-S.C., PAC endorsed him.

Bruning has a huge leg up in the cash on hand race, but his burn rate -- he only raised his cash on hand total from the last quarter by $100,000 despite raising $400,000 during the quarter -- isn't ideal. Still, unless former Democratic Sen. Bob Kerrey runs, if Bruning emerges from the primary, he'll be all but assured a spot in the 113th Congress.

If the primary election was held today, it looks like Tammy Duckworth would cruise to the Democratic nomination in Illinois's 8th District. Since it's actually in less than two months, she probably will anyway.

Duckworth, a former Veterans Affairs assistant secretary, holds a massive 42-point lead -- 59 percent to 17 percent -- over former Illinois deputy treasurer Raja Krishnamoorthi, according to a Normington Petts poll conducted for her campaign. The poll surveyed 400 likely Democratic primary voters from Jan. 10 to Jan. 12, with a margin of error is 4.9 percent.

The Illinois primary is scheduled for Mar. 20. From the polling memo:

Krishnamoorthi probably will be able to communicate his message in the closing months of the primary campaign, as the memo notes. Though Duckworth outraised him in the fourth quarter, Krishnamoorthi has fundraised well, bringing in over $1 million for the year, and had nearly twice Duckworth's cash on hand at the end of the third quarter. (Fourth quarter cash on hand figures are not available yet.) But as David Axelrod says in the polling memo, "I have never seen anyone overcome a 42-point deficit this late in the race."

Texas Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst is maintaining his huge lead in the Republican primary race to replace retiring Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, according to a new poll conducted for the Dewhurst campaign.

The survey of 600 Republican primary voters, which was conducted from Jan. 9 through Jan. 11, shows Dewhurst at 50 percent, more than 40 points ahead of former Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert, who received 9 percent. Former Texas Solicitor General Ted Cruz, the favorite among some conservative activists and tea party groups, received 5 percent in the poll. Former ESPN analyst Craig James and funeral home director Glenn Addison finished with 3 and 1 percent, respectively. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent.

Results of the poll were first published by the Austin American-Statesman.

The new poll pushes back against an automated survey released earlier this month that showed Cruz registering in the high teens. Automated polls do not meet National Journal's standards for publication.

Marquette Law School has released the results of a poll in Wisconsin which tests potential gubernatorial candidates and matchups in advance of an all-but-certain recall election later this year. Here are three takeaways from the survey -- the first live caller poll this year to test Walker against potential Democratic opponents -- worth flagging:

-- There is a strong opportunity for Walker to define his opponent: Former Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk, who announced her campaign the day after Democrats submitted over a million petition signatures in the effort to recall Walker, isn't a household name: Less than half of voters (44 percent) had an opinion of her. State Sen. Tim Cullen, who has also announced that he is running, has just 18 percent name ID.

Tom Barrett, the mayor of Milwaukee who is also mulling a bid, is the best known Democrat in the survey: Sixty-one percent could give an opinion of him. He's served in Congress and run for governor twice -- including in 2010 against Walker -- and is still unknown by a significant chunk of the electorate.

Walker's already raising money at a very impressive clip and will be able to hit his eventual opponent in TV ads over and over again. The prospect of a bloody Democratic primary could also raise the negatives of the eventual nominee.

-- There is no clear most electable Democrat: Barrett, Falk, Cullen and former Rep. David Obey run comparably head-to-head against the governor. Walker leads Barrett 50-44 percent, Falk 49-42 percent, Obey 49-43 percent, and Cullen 50-40 percent. One argument that can be used against Falk -- who is expected to secure major labor endorsements -- is that her candidacy plays right into the hands of Walker's campaign, which wants to cast his opponent as a puppet of organized labor. So far at least, she does not appear to be running too far behind Barrett, viewed as a candidate with more cross-party appeal.

Correction: The original version of this post misstated the recipient of a coordinated expenditure from the National Republican Congressional Committee.

With less than a week to go, underdog Republican Rob Cornilles is pulling out all the stops in his bid to upset Democrat Suzanne Bonamici in Oregon's 1st District special election, launching a new TV ad that ties allies of Bonamici to disgraced former Rep David Wu, whose 2011 resignation triggered the current race.

"The same people who covered up for David Wu are now deceiving you about Rob Cornilles," begins the announcer of the 30-second ad, which features a still image of Bonamici, with Wu in the background.

When asked, the Cornilles campaign declined to disclose the size of the ad buy.

At no point does the ad directly tie Wu to Bonamici and the rest of the spot is dedicated to blasting Bonamici's record and touting Cornilles, but the tactic is still striking.

In an interview earlier this month with KATU published on Jan. 9, Cornilles sought to connect Wu to Bonamici. "The voters need to know that she has been in the center of the establishment that's covered up for David Wu," he said. His new ad marks the first time he's taken to the airwaves with his argument.

Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., will run for a fourth term in the House, she told the AP in an interview on Wednesday.

"I'm looking forward to coming back and bringing a strong, powerful voice to Washington, D.C.," she told the AP.

Bachmann spent most of the last year running for president. She officially announced her national campaign in June in Waterloo, Iowa, the city of her birth. She skyrocketed to the top of the polls in the first-in-the-nation caucus state and won a high-profile Hawkeye State straw poll in August, but her momentum was slowed by Texas Gov. Rick Perry's entrance into the race.

The congresswoman's campaign struggled through much of the fall in the lead-up to the Iowa caucuses. She finished a disappointing sixth place there on Jan. 3, and suspended her campaign on the following day.

Bachmann was reelected with 53 percent of the vote in the suburban Twin Cities sixth district in 2011 but her district needs to shrink following redistricting and an active standoff over the new map makes her future political outlook unpredictable.

Bachmann's 2010 Democratic opponent, Tarryl Clark, has opted to challenge freshman Republican Rep. Chip Cravaack.

Bachmann was first elected to the House in 2006. She's been a prominent fundraiser and a favorite of conservatives, but has struggled in her attempts to move up the leadership ladder.

She ran for GOP Conference chair in 2010, but dropped her bid against Texas Rep. Jeb Hensarling, who won the post.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. We officially have a race in the Sunshine State, where Romney and Gingrich are running neck-and-neck. Meanwhile, Stenberg's fundraising improves in Nebraska, Rubio comes to Romney's defense and Elizabeth Warren handicaps the Super Bowl. Here's today's rundown

9) Elizabeth Warren's Super Bowl prediction: "The Pats are going to spank the Giants. It's just reality."

8) Republican Jesse Kelly, who lost a very close race to Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, D-Ariz., in 2010 filed on Tuesday to run for the seat that the Democrat, who is still recovering from a tragic shooting that nearly took her life a year ago, is resigning.

An emotional moment as Giffords attended President Obama's State of the Union address on Tuesday in one of her final acts as a member of Congress to spontaneous cheers, from the floor to the rafters of "Gabby. Gabby. Gabby."

7) The out of state money continues to roll into the campaign account of Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker: An AP analysis of campaign finance reports shows more than 60 percent of his money raised over the past five weeks came from outside the Badger State. The stakes will be national for both sides in the all-but-certain recall election; this is just the latest sign of that.

Walker will deliver his second state of the state address on Wednesday.

6) Former Democratic National Committee Chairman Tim Kaine's cash on hand advantage over former GOP Sen. George Allen is $1.3 million, following a quarter in which he outraised the Republican $1.65 million to $1.1 million. That's a pretty striking disparity between two heavyweight contenders.

Former Texas Solicitor General Ted Cruz's $1.1 million dollar fourth quarter haul wasn't far behind Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst's $1.5 million. Cruz has $2.8 million in the bank; Dewhurst has not yet released his cash on hand total. Remember too, that Dewhurst has the ability to self-fund.

Audience members at the Republican presidential debate in Florida this week were asked to remain silent in response to candidates' answers. What if candidates had to stay quiet, too?

Jimmy Kimmel presented this imagined scenario on Tuesday. Taking a cue from the recently Oscar-nominated film "The Artist," his late-night show played a silent-film version of the Tampa debate.

"If you've seen the movie, you know just how intense something -- in this case, a debate -- can be, even without words," Kimmel said.

Don't miss today's Must See Moment at 3:03 when Conan O'Brien dons a white-haired wig and red lipstick to impersonate Callista Gingrich alongside his sidekick Andy Richter's imitation of Newt:

Nearly half of New York voters say they are unsure about reelecting Democratic Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, according to a new NY1/YNN-Marist poll released Tuesday night, but Republicans' efforts to recruit a top-tier candidate for the race hit a roadblock this week.

Just 38 percent of voters will definitely vote to reelect Gillibrand, according to the poll. Only 18 percent definitely plan to vote against her, but 44 percent of voters are unsure about reelecting Gillibrand. Among voters unaffiliated with the two parties, 48 percent are unsure about reelecting Gillibrand.

Gillibrand's job performance ratings underscore the lukewarm feelings -- either positive or negative -- New York voters have for her. Forty percent of voters give her an "excellent" or "good" rating, and 41 percent rate her as "fair" or "poor."

But a look inside those numbers shows a lack of intensity on both sides: Just 6 percent of voters gave Gillibrand a job rating of "excellent," while only 12 percent rate her as "poor."

In contrast to Gillibrand, 56 percent of voters rate Democratic Sen. Chuck Schumer as either "excellent" or "good."

Today's United Technologies/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll showed Democrats with an 11-point lead over Republicans in a generic ballot question asked to registered voters. When asked if they would "rather see the Republicans keep control" of the House or see "the Democrats win enough seats to take over control of the House," 48 percent chose the Democrats, and 37 percent chose the GOP.

At a press conference last week, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Steve Israel was asked, essentially, if President Obama was going to be a drag on Democratic efforts to take back the House of Representatives. Israel argued that House elections would be fought on independent terms. "We are creating our own climate, our own battle spaces," he said. That may change when the campaign swings into gear and Republicans and outside groups try tying Democrats to the president again, but for now, that independent climate is why Democrats hold a big generic ballot lead less than 10 months out.

Obama also has an eight-point generic ballot lead in the poll, but House Democrats stretched that advantage by playing close to equal or even ahead of House Republicans among some key groups that are cool to the president. Where Obama loses whites to a generic GOP presidential candidate 49-38, the GOP advantage among whites shrinks to just two points, 43-41, in the House generic ballot.

In particular, House Democrats managed to beat the GOP among white men. Obama loses white, college-educated men by 16 points and white non-college men by 11. House Democrats run even with House Republicans among college-educated white men, 45-45, and actually beat the GOP 44-41 among non-college white men. That couldn't be more different than 2010, when House Republicans won 62 percent of the white male vote, according to exit polls.

At a rally for embattled Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker this weekend, former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson, who is running in a three-way GOP Senate primary, heaped praise on the controversial governor while addressing the crowd of more than 1,000 Walker supporters. But Thompson took a noticeably different tone when discussing Walker's record at an event on Monday, prompting criticism from some conservatives.

"The only thing better than Scott Walker winning the first time is Scott Walker winning the second time," Thompson told the rally attendees, according to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. After showing off a coat with a red University of Wisconsin "W" on it, Thompson told the crowd: "W is for Win, W is for Walker and W is for Wisconsin."

But just two days later, Thompson's affection for Walker seemed less enthusiastic. Speaking at the Milwaukee Press Club on Monday, Thompson distanced himself from some of the policies that made Walker the target of an unprecedented recall drive -- and a cause celebre among conservatives in Wisconsin and across the country.

When asked about Walker's controversial budget repair bill, which restricted the collective bargaining power of public employees, Thompson said he didn't want to second-guess Walker. But he didn't exactly offer a full-throated endorsement of the law, which has drawn praise from conservatives and scorn from labor groups and their supporters.

"I was not there when he was making his decision based on the facts and evidence that he had. I'm not going to come now and Monday (morning) quarterback and say I would have done it different," Thompson said, according to the Journal Sentinel. "Probably would have, but I don't know."

The primaries on both sides have heated up recently in the Connecticut Senate race, with former Republican Rep. Chris Shays and former Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz knocking the leaders in their respective primary contests. But while both underdogs have ramped up their attacks, they don't yet have the money to really cut into the frontrunners' leads.

Shays has been aggressively hitting 2010 Senate nominee Linda McMahon on her time as CEO of World Wrestling Entertainment. "She's basically in the soft porn business, that's what her business is," he said in an interview with the Associated Press last week.

More Shays, per Greenwich Time: "Let's think about it: She's got over 41 people 50 years and younger who've died in her jobs. That's quite a job record that she's created."

And over on the Democratic side, Bysiewicz is ramping up attacks on Rep. Chris Murphy, D-Conn. Bysiewicz, in a statement released Monday, accused Murphy of voting against closing tax loopholes that benefit wealthy Americans: "On May 28, 2010 Congressman Chris Murphy voted against a measure that would have closed the tax loophole that treats the income from investments made by the executives of private equity funds and Mitt Romney differently than ordinary income -- the typical income type of middle and working class families."

Bysiewicz also scheduled a conference call for Wednesday to talk about "Murphy's support for Mitt Romney's 15% Tax Rate."

Connecticut is one of the few Senate races in which both sides host primaries with more than one credible contender. But Bysiewicz has consistently lagged behind Murphy in fundraising -- she has yet to release her fourth quarter haul, but at the end of the third quarter had $843,000 in her campaign coffers. Murphy finished the year with about $2.5 million in the bank.

And Shays raised $422,000 in the fourth quarter, his first in the race -- falling far short of his goal, set in October, of raising $1 million by the end of the year. McMahon has yet to disclose her year-end total, but has the option of self-funding, something she did to the tune of $50 million in 2010.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. In today's edition: Brown and Warren agree to a cease-fire of sorts, Romney releases his taxes, Gingrich gets a little help from his friends, and is the former Speaker a Clinton clone? All that, and more in today's political rundown:

8. Sen. Mark Kirk, R-Ill., faces a potentially long recovery from a stroke he suffered Saturday, which could leave him partially paralyzed on his left side, the Chicago Tribune reports.

Doctors said Kirk's long-term prognosis is good, and that he was likely to make a full mental recovery, but he may not regain use of his left arm and could have some paralysis on the left side of his face. "Due to his young age, good health and the nature of the stroke, doctors are very confident in the Senator's recovery over the weeks ahead," a Kirk spokesman said.

Best wishes to Kirk for a full and speedy recovery.

7. Former Democratic Rep. Artur Davis, once on the short list to be President Obama's Attorney General, is continuing to turn on his party. In a National Review editorial today, he calls on Republicans to draft Jeb Bush into the race for president, while effusively praising the reform-oriented former Republican governor

6. Sen. Scott Brown, R-Mass., and his Democratic opponent Elizabeth Warren reached an agreement seeking to prevent ads from outside groups in the closely-watched Senate race. The agreement, which was Brown's idea, would call on candidates to donate money to charity of each other's choosing when a super PAC airs an ad either for or against them.

But there's little guarantee that other outside groups will abide by the deal. Already the group American Crossroads, which has aided Brown, declined to back the ban, noting there were loopholes in the agreement that would allow unions and liberal groups to aid Warren.

5. Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.V., raised $495,000 in the fourth fundraising quarter - a respectable total as he prepares for re-election. Manchin will be facing a rematch against Republican businessman John Raese.

4. Mitt Romney is releasing his tax returns from 2010 and 2011 today: Early analysis of the returns show that Romney reported $21.7 million in income in 2010, and paid $3 million in federal taxes. He also gave $2.98 million in charitable donations, including over $1.5 million to the Mormon church.

Is Newt Gingrich a Washington outsider as he has recently been claiming?

Jon Stewart isn't buying it. "You, the former speaker of the House and Freddie Mac-consulting millionaire are THE Washington insider," he said on The Daily Show Monday. "When Washington gets its prostate checked, it tickles you."

Don't miss today's Must See Moment at 0:34 when Stewart runs down all of the Mitt Romney puns that he has planned for the general election:

Your day-end wrap of notable Senate/House fundraising news:

House:

-- Florida GOP Rep. Allen West's campaign announced on Monday that he raised more than $1.75 million in the fourth quarter and finished 2011 with over $2.7 million cash on hand. That's going to me among the highest, if not the highest, fourth quarter fundraising total of any House candidate, and it comes on the heels of a third quarter in which West also finished first in the fundraising race with $1.9 million.

That puts his Democratic challengers' totals in perspective a bit. Lois Frankel and Patrick Murphy each raised over $300,000 last quarter, very respectable totals for non-incumbents. But even if they improve the pace, they are more or less guaranteed to be swamped by West in the fundraising race.

Senate:

A couple of notables from late last week:

-- Sen. Olympia Snowe's, R-Maine, campaign raised over $629,000 in the fourth quarter and finished with $3.4 million in the bank at the end of the year. Snowe has not attracted a GOP priamry opponent that is a major threat yet, and with another solid period in the books, there isn't further financial incentive for one to jump in now.

-- Former Rep. Chris Shays, R-Conn., raised just $422,000+ in the fourth quarter, which leaves him short of the $1 million year-end goal he set for himself. He has just $316,000 in the bank. That's all troubling enough on its own, but when your primary opponent is someone who spent $50 million on her last Senate race, it's even worse.

After a prolonged game of political poker, Sen. Scott Brown, R-Mass., and Harvard professor and consumer advocate Elizabeth Warren have signed an agreement seeking to curb the influence of third party advertising in their high stakes Bay State Senate race. Here's what you need to know about the agreement, and how it will and won't matter:

The background: On Jan. 13, Brown penned a letter to Warren urging her to join him "in calling for an end to all spending by third party groups." Warren responded on the same day in a her own letter, writing "my campaign manager is prepared to meet with your representative to begin immediately to craft an enforceable agreement."

After some more posturing from both sides, Warren's campaign rejected Brown's proposal, charging that "the proposal he has put forward still includes loopholes that Karl Rove could drive a tank through." On Monday, however both sides struck an agreement, as each sought the higher ground.

"I appreciate Scott Brown's quick and affirmative response to my proposal this morning. With our joint agreement we have now moved beyond talk to real action to stop advertising from third party groups," Warren said in a statement.

"I'm pleased Professor Warren has joined with me in signing my People's Pledge" said Brown. "This is a great victory for the people of Massachusetts, and a bold statement that puts Super PACs and other third parties on notice that their interference in this race will not be tolerated."

The Massachusetts race has already seen an influx of advertising from outside groups, to the tune of millions of dollars being spent. Allies of both candidates have entered the fray, making the issue especially relevant in the Bay State race.

What the agreement says: In a nutshell, the candidates' campaigns agreed to make a monetary contribution to a charity of the opponent's choosing when third party groups air independent expenditure ads (broadcast, cable, online, radio, or satellite) that support or promote (when it comes to their own campaign) or opposes or attacks (when it comes to the opponent) a named or referenced candidate. The monetary contribution will amount to 50 percent of the ad buy price.

State Sen. Michael Baumgartner, the first-term legislator who has launched a long-shot Republican challenge against Sen. Maria Cantwell, D-Wash., acknowledges that a controversial press release his campaign sent out last year about emergency contraception was a mistake.

The December 15 press release, sent in response to Cantwell's support for access to emergency contraception without a prescription for girls under the age of 17 (something the Obama administration came out against): "Baumgartner noted that Cantwell, who is unmarried, has frequently voted to undermine the role of parents in child-rearing."

In an interview with Hotline On Call on Monday, Baumgartner called the press release "apparently poorly written."

"I take responsibility for it," he said. "I mean to me, when I read it, it says she's to the left of President Obama."

Baumgartner faces an uphill climb in his race against a the popular incumbent during a presidential year in a decidedly blue state. His press release misstep is just one of the reasons he faces long odds.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Gingrich's South Carolina win resets the Republican race -- and forces the hand of Romney, who will release his taxes on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Rep. Gabrielle Giffords will step down in Arizona, Case is set to hit the airwaves in Hawaii and Neumann's on the... gubernatorial campaign trail. Here's today's rundown:

6) Mary Kaye Huntsman and Anita Perry formed a close friendship during the time their respective husbands were presidential candidates. "I'd see her at the debates. We were there to comfort one another. We texted every day," Huntsman told the Salt Lake Tribune.

5) Former Rep. Ed Case has released a look at his first TV ad, a positive spot in which he casts himself as an effective leader. Case remains an underdog against Rep. Mazie Hirono, the Democratic frontrunner in the Senate race who had an impressive fourth quarter fundraising period. Case has not yet released his fourth quarter figures.

4) "Scott Walker is my governor, Scott Walker is your governor, Scott Walker is our governor. stand with Scott Walker" -- that's from Senate candidate and former Rep. Mark Neumann at a pro-Walker rally over the weekend. Yep, same Neumann who challenged Walker in the governor's race in 2010, irking some Republicans in the closing stages of the race. It's yet another sign of the extent to which the Republican Senate candidates are trying to align themselves with the governor in advance of the all but certain recall election he will face this year.

3) Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, D-Ariz., will resign from Congress this week, almost a year after a tragic shooting that nearly took her life. "I have more work to do on my recovery, so to do what is best for Arizona, I will step down this week," Giffords said in a video announcing her decision. Giffords will attend Tuesday's State of The Union speech as one her last acts as a congresswoman.

My colleagues have the full details over on NationalJournal.com regarding what will happen, election-wise, after Giffords steps down this week:

Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, D-Ariz., is stepping down from Congress this week, almost exactly one year after she was shot at close range at a campaign event, she said in a video posted to YouTube on Sunday.

"Thank you for your prayers and for giving me time to recover. I have more work to do on my recovery, so to do what is best for Arizona, I will step down this week," Giffords said in the video, posted to her official YouTube channel. "I'm getting better. Every day my spirit is high."

For more coverage of this story, visit National Journal.

What we at The Hotline learned this week:

-- The fact that President Obama's first campaign ad comes in response to an attack from a third-party group, and almost exactly two years to the day since the Supreme Court ruled on Citizens United v. FEC, is a reflection of the dramatically altered political landscape. Mitt Romney won't be the single biggest threat to Obama's re-election; outside groups with millions to spend will be.

-- Rick Perry endorsed Newt Gingrich after he dropped out of the race, but not all of his backers did. Nevada Gov. Brian Sandoval, Henry Barbour and Bobby Jindal are staying out of the race. Former Ambassador David Wilkins and Perry's top K street backer, National Association of Wholesaler-Distributors President Dirk Van Dongen went to Mitt Romney. Meanwhile, Romney was able to gain the support this week of both Sen. Rob Portman, R-Ohio, and Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell.

-- A day after Wisconsin activists submitted over a million signatures in the effort to recall Republican Gov. Scott Walker, Kathleen Falk became the first big-name Democrat to officially announce a challenge to the controversial first-term Republican. But she likely won't be the last. The former Dane County executive is a favorite of labor. The same cannot be said of Tom Barrett, another possible well-known Democrat who could jump in the race. If he runs, expect a nasty primary and some unhappy union figures who don't like Barrett -- all welcome news for Walker.

-- The four most competitive gubernatorial races in 2012 are all held by Democrats, and history may be working against them in each case. Montana hasn't elected two Democratic governors back-to-back since 1980, and in New Hampshire, it hasn't happened since before the Civil War. Conversely, the lengthy Democratic winning streaks in North Carolina and Washington may finally hand those seats to Republicans. The GOP hasn't won gubernatorial races there since 1988 (N.C) and 1980 (Wash.).

Updated at 7:28 p.m. on 1/21:

The morning after polls close in South Carolina, the Sunday shows will focus on the transition from the first in the south primary, to Florida. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who could pull off a victory in the Palmetto state Saturday night, will be on Meet the Press, State of the Union, and Face the Nation on Sunday morning. Gingrich was originally scheduled to appear solely on ABC's This Week, but was removed from the guest list on Friday afternoon. A spokeswoman for ABC, which released a controversial interview with Gingrich's ex-wife on Thursday, declined to comment on the change. Gingrich was added to both the CBS and CNN shows some time on Saturday, according to spokeswomen for both networks.

Former Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pa., who trails South Carolina, will join Gingrich on State of the Union and will also drop by This Weekand State of the Union to discuss whether his campaign can move forward. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney will be on Fox News Sunday. His campaign will also be represented by New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who will stop by Meet the Press.

All the major networks will be live on Saturday with on the ground updates from South Carolina. MSNBC, CNN, Fox News and Fox Business will all carry election results live beginning at 6 p.m. C-SPAN will be airing live shots throughout the day, including candidate speeches and results.

Fox News' Neil Cavuto will host a live, two-hour special Saturday morning, beginning at 10 a.m., which will feature interviews with Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, Sen. Jim DeMint, R-S.C., businessman Herman Cain and South Carolina Attorney General Alan Wilson. Later in the day, MSNBC will also air a special two-hour edition of Daily Rundown at 4 p.m.

Check out the full listings after the jump.

If frontrunner Mitt Romney survives the Republican primary process and becomes the party's presumptive nominee, a majority of Democrats surveyed in this week's National Journal Political Insiders Poll say he will enter the general election campaign a weaker candidate than when he began his run. But by an overwhelming margin, Republican Insiders feel the primary campaign has been a benefit, leaving Romney stronger and more prepared to take on President Obama.

President Obama's decision to reject a proposal to build the Keystone XL pipeline has placed him at odds with Democratic Senate candidates in the Great Plains. The decision has spurred the candidates to put distance between themselves and the administration while Republican opponents are working feverishly to tie them to the president.

Heidi Heitkamp, the former North Dakota attorney general who is running for retiring Democratic Sen. Kent Conrad's seat, released a scathing statement on Wednesday blasting the president for his decision. And on Friday, she penned a letter to Obama urging him to reverse course.

"The Keystone pipeline would mean billions of dollars invested in our economy when we need it most, and tens of thousands of well-paid construction jobs at a time when too many Americans are out of work. It would bring new business opportunities for small businesses that would support this huge construction project, from gravel pits to Main Street diners," Heitkamp writes in her letter.

The United States Supreme Court ruled on Friday morning that an interim redistricting map drawn by a District Court must be discarded because a map approved by the state's Republican-controlled legislature was not adequately taken into account in the draft process. The decision is a blow to Democrats who stood to gain under the interim map and it does not move the state any closer to a final resolution as the fast-approaching spring primary, already once-delayed, grows near.

"Because it is unclear whether the District Court for the Western District of Texas followed the appropriate standards in drawing interim maps for the 2012 Texas elections, the orders implementing those maps are vacated, and the cases are remanded for further proceedings consistent with this opinion," the high court said in its ruling.

Following redistricting, Texas stands to gain four House seats. The Republican-controlled legislature passed a map last year that required pre-clearance by either the Department of Justice or the D.C. District Court, in order to ensure that it was consistent with the requirements set forth by the Voting Rights Act. The map was submitted to the District Court and hasn't yet been granted pre-clearance. Separately, Democrats appealed the map on the grounds that it discriminated against Hispanics and African-Americans. That case has also not been resolved.

Thus, the District Court drafted an interim plan more favorable to Democrats than the plan drafted by the legislature. That plan was struck down by the Supreme Court on Friday.

So what happens now? As redistricting expert and former Texas Democratic Rep. Martin Frost says, "There's no normal here." The D.C. District Court's involvement adds an unusual level of uncertainty because typically the Justice Department handles pre-clearance. But Texas did not want to put its maps in the Obama administration's hands, which makes sense: The Justice Department has since filed briefs against the legislative plan in the D.C. court.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Thursday night's debate capped a day of upheaval in the GOP presidential race, Elizabeth Warren raises more in a day than many candidates will raise this quarter, Rehberg gets a primary and Bob Kerrey is still thinking about a Senate run of his own. Here's today's rundown:

9) Florida Republican underdog Senate candidate Craig Miller, the former CEO of Ruth's Chris Steakhouse will run an ad on Fox News starting on Sunday that features Herman Cain. By the way, if you didn't catch it on Thursday, Cain made an endorsement in the GOP presidential race: "The American people."

8) "No decision yet," on the Nebraska Senate race, former Democratic Sen. Bob Kerrey tells WOWT.

7) Rep. Denny Rehberg's, R-Mont., Senate campaign is getting a primary challenge. Dennis Teske is a political newcomer and will run to Rehberg's right.

6) Former North Dakota Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp is holding a conference call this morning to urge President Obama to reverse his rejection of the Keystone XL pipeline. His decision puts her in a tough position in the Senate race: North Dakota is a major energy producer and that part of the country is pro-pipeline. She is breaking with the president on the issue in no uncertain terms, which could help her make her case that is an independent voice. But headlines about Obama's decision to reject approval in Great Plains papers is bad news for Democrats in the region.

5) Former Pennsylvania state Rep. Sam Rohrer raised $122,000 during an abbreviated fourth quarter (he launched his Senate campaign in late November) but finished with about $69,000 in the bank. That pales in comparison to $5 million that Tom Smith loaned his campaign in the fourth quarter and the million bucks Steve Welch loaned himself. So Rohrer faces a steep uphill climb. Rohrer is set today to come out against the state GOP's endorsement process endorsement process.

A lot of very qualified, potentially strong Senate candidates raised less than $1 million over the last three months. Massachusetts Senate contender Elizabeth Warren has raised that much in the last 24 hours.

Warren's campaign said it had broken the seven-figure mark on its first money bomb around 9 p.m. this evening. Just 20 minutes later, they're close to $1.1 million, according to a running tally on her website.

There aren't many candidates who can muster that kind of support in a money bomb. One of them, though, is Warren's opponent: Almost exactly two years ago, when Republicans started to think they had a real shot at winning the seat, Sen. Scott Brown raised more than $1 million a day, three days in a row.

Warren and Brown are jockeying back and forth on the best method of keeping outside groups out of their race. Here's a novel concept: Both candidates could just buy up all the television air time themselves. After all, based on their ludicrous fundraising pace, it looks like they'll be able to afford it.

Joseph P. Kennedy III's decision to explore a run for retiring Rep. Barney Frank's, D-Mass., seat has brought a flurry of attention from media outlets in Massachusetts and D.C. eager to document the rise -- or fall -- of the newest scion of the Kennedy clan.

But some of the harshest words to date lobbed at the young Kennedy came from an unexpected source: Rep. Connie Mack, R-Fla., who is running in the GOP primary to take on Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson. What's more, Mack attacks Kennedy's family ties, a criticism that could be used against the Florida Republican in his own run.

Mack sent out a strongly-worded press release on Thursday blasting Kennedy's father, former Rep. Joseph P. Kennedy II, for acting as "a paid apologist for the repressive dictatorship of Hugo Chavez."

Mack issued a challenge to the younger Kennedy: "I have a simple question for you Mr. Kennedy -- Do you support your father's positions or denounce them?"

This week in Wisconsin, two things became clear. First, after activists submitted over one million petition signatures in the effort to recall Gov. Scott Walker -- far more than the requisite 540,000+ required to trigger an election -- it's a near certainty that Walker will be on the ballot once again, less than two years into his first term.

Second, former Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk's announcement that she will challenge Walker makes a contested Democratic primary look ever more likely. She isn't the first candidate to say she is running and there are a whole host of other might-runs that have yet to declare their intentions.

The second development is worthy of closer attention, as it's a departure from last year's state Senate recalls, in which Democrats coalesced around nominees in each race without contested Democratic primaries (save for primaries triggered by Republicans running as fake Democrats).

The state Democratic Party has professed its neutrality in a contested gubernatorial primary. After the jump is a closer look at some of the major names being mentioned as possible candidates (or in some cases, as actual candidates who have already entered the race). It's by no means an exhaustive list, but a rundown of candidates who each, for different reasons, could be intriguing choices for the party:

Three dozen races make up the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's list of top targets among open and Republican-held House seats. But the contests are better thought of not as a single list but as three groups. Almost all of the races and candidates are emblematic of similar patterns, but each group of "Red to Blue" races highlights a different aspect of the puzzle that national Democrats are trying to put together as they attempt to take back the majority:

Open seats: Thirteen of the 36 Red to Blue races are for open seats -- five Democratic, three Republican, and five new seats created by redistricting. For the most part, these contests demonstrate how this cycle's redistricting process has not been the horror story many predicted for Democrats. All five of the new seats (four California districts and the new 10th District in Washington) are majority-minority, and former Reps. Nick Lampson, D-Texas, and Ann Kirkpatrick, D-Ariz., saw their southwestern targets get much friendlier when the maps were redrawn (subject to various court cases in the instance of Texas). Redistricting obviously boosted Republicans in many states, but Democrats have had their wins too, and several are on display in this category.

Freshmen: Another 16 districts on the list currently belong to first-term Republicans. Democrats' clearest way back to a House majority is through the areas represented by the GOP's enormous freshman class, and the DCCC is clearly confident that the party can march back into some of those districts as the Republican wave of 2010 recedes. President Obama won most of these districts -- to name a few, Rep. Robert Dold's and Rep. Joe Walsh's suburban Chicago seats and Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick's suburban Philadelphia seat -- in 2008, demonstrating Democratic viability.

Republicans argue that Democrats hit their high water mark in these areas in 2008 and that the president and his party are less attractive there now. On the other hand, many of these districts have seen rapid growth in Democratic-friendly demographics (minorities and college-educated whites) in recent years, which helped elect a number of Democrats to the House in 2004, 2006, and 2008. The question is whether 2010 represented a reversion to a GOP-leaning norm or merely a hiccup for Democrats. Judging from the Red to Blue list, the DCCC subscribes to the hiccup notion. The answer, as always, is probably somewhere in between.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. President Obama releases his first ad while Romney takes heat over his personal finances in the lead up to the final South Carolina debate. Meanwhile, Welch lands the backing of a major figure in Pennsylvania while Kyrillos will challenge Menendez in the Garden State. Here's today's rundown:

9) David Axelrod says the 2012 presidential race will be his last campaign. He plans to lead a new, nonpartisan Institute of Politics at the University of Chicago after the election.

8) Influential Utah tea party activist David Kirkham made his gubernatorial bid official on Wednesday, joining a primary in which Republican Gov. Gary Herbert already has two challengers. Kirkham vowed to repeal a guest worker bill Herbert signed but as the Salt Lake Tribune notes, the powerful LDS Church supports the measure, making it difficult for opponents to assume too critical a posture.

7) Joe Monahan has some New Mexico Senate FEC numbers: Democratic Rep. Martin Heinrich's, fourth quarter tally: $483,000 raised and nearly $1.4 million in the bank. Auditor Hector Balderas is lagging behind with just $465,000 in cash at the end of December.

6) North Dakota Democratic Senate candidate Heidi Heitkamp is distancing herself from President Obama on the issue of the Keystone XL pipeline.

"The President's decision to reject the Keystone XL pipeline was the wrong one, plain and simple. Building the Keystone Pipeline will create North Dakota jobs as well as drive down costs of fuel for small businesses and North Dakota families. There is no time to wait," she said in a statement on Wednesday following the president's decision to reject the pipeline that would carry oil from Canada to the Gulf Coast. It's a smart move for Heitkamp, who is running in a red state where Republicans want to paint her as an Obama loyalist.

5) New Jersey Republican state Sen. Joseph Kyrillos, a friend of Gov. Chris Christie, will run against Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez.

Jon Stewart on Wednesday joined the chorus of critics of Mitt Romney's characterization that his $374,328 in earnings form speaker's fees is "not very much" money.

And don't miss today's Must See Moment at 0:57 when David Letterman presents another surprise from Mitt Romney's tax return:

Take our late-night poll after the jump...

Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, leads Republican Josh Mandel in a new poll released early Thursday that shows Mandel, the young state treasurer and prolific fundraiser, remains little-known among the state's voters.

Brown leads Mandel, 47 percent to 32 percent, in the poll, conducted by Quinnipiac University. One percent of registered voters volunteered that they would vote for another candidate, two percent wouldn't vote, and 18 percent are undecided.

That is equal to Brown's 15-point lead in the previous poll, conducted in mid-October. In fact, in all five Quinnipiac surveys testing a head-to-head Brown-Mandel matchup since last May, Brown's lead has been between 13 and 15 points. In each survey Brown has flirted with the crucial 50-percent threshold but has yet to reach it.

Brown runs the table among Democrats, according to the poll, leading Mandel, 86 percent to 2 percent. Among Republicans, Mandel leads Brown by a wide margin, 76 percent to 10 percent. Brown leads among independents, 44 percent to 27 percent.

Brown retains a positive image in the state. Forty-seven percent of voters approve of the job he is doing as Senator, while only 34 percent disapprove. And 42 percent say they have a favorable opinion of Brown, compared to 26 percent who have an unfavorable opinion. Still, 30 percent of voters -- and 35 percent of independent voters -- say they haven't heard enough about Brown, who was first elected in 2006.

The recall effort against Wisconsin Republican Gov. Scott Walker has the GOP's U.S. Senate candidates racing to cast themselves as party loyalists, with each touting the support they've lent to Republicans facing the possibility of being booted from office. The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel:

It's also a reason why, as we've written before, Jeff Fitzgerald, the state Assembly speaker whose brother, state Sen. Scott Fitzgerald also faces the prospect of a recall election, could be well-positioned to capitalize on gubernatorial tussle. He's been a staunch Walker ally who has also introduced a bill to impose strict penalties for signing petitions more than once.

Watch to see if involvement by the GOP Senate candidates turns into a game of anything-you-can-do-I-can-do-better. And don't lose sight of Democratic Rep. Tammy Baldwin's involvement; she doesn't have a primary but has been weighing in on the recall as well.

The risk for each of the Senate candidates -- Democratic or Republican -- in getting deeply involved in the race is the uncertainty of the outcome. If Walker is unseated, his surrogates must admit some degree of defeat, and vice versa.

The House Race Hotline spotlight is our take on the day's House race news for subscribers:

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is out with an ambitious list of 36 races that Democrats hope will put them back in the majority, including 18 Democratic candidates and 18 districts that are playing host to competitive Democratic primaries. "Our Red to Blue candidates reflect the values of the middle class," said DCCC Chair Steve Israel at a briefing on Wednesday. "They are products of the middle-class." They are also, largely, products of districts with similar demographics to ones the Democrats lost in 2010.

-- Even after the GOP wave of 2010, Democrats still hold a solid advantage in majority-minority districts. Similarly, the GOP held an edge in seats that were over 80 percent white even after the big Democratic victories of 2006 and 2008.

-- The GOP won across the board in 2010, but it delivered the decisive blow to Democrats in districts that were diverse, but still majority-white. Previous National Journal analysis (subscriber) shows that Democrats lost nearly 30 seats in the 50 percent-80 percent white band of districts, and that is where the current crop of Red to Blue districts is concentrated.

-- Of the 20 Red to Blue races that had demographic data for new districts available this afternoon, 11 fall into that 50 percent-80 percent white range. An additional six are majority-minority.

Israel said at the Red to Blue rollout that the independents who abandoned Democrats in 2010 occupy his thoughts all day -- and most of some nights. Democrats already have a hold on majority-minority districts, and Republicans on the most heavily white districts. It's the diverse middle -- where many highly educated independents are found -- where the House will be won. The first round of Red to Blue types are squarely in that band.

Updated at 4:02 p.m.

Rep. Maurice Hinchey, D-N.Y., who recently completed treatment for colon cancer, will announce on Thursday he plans to retire at the end of this year after 10 terms in the House, according to his office.

An advisory put out by his office says Hinchey will formally make the announcement in Kingston, N.Y., at 1 p.m. Thursday.

The announcement said Hinchey has been declared cancer free by his doctors, but says his office would have no further comment.

The news is catching many by surprise, including his home county Ulster County Democratic Committee chairman Julian Schreibman, who said earlier today he believed Hinchey would run again. He said it would be unusual for Hinchey to announce he is leaving before New York state completes its redistricting process.

After learning later of Hinchey's decision, Schreibman said, "Obviously, he has health issues, and the truth is nobody has put in more time in terms of public service than he has." Hinchey had previously represented portions of the upper Hudson Valley in the New York state Legislature.

Schreibman also said there are no Democrats, as yet, lined up or who have even talked to him about running for the seat.

"And I can't imagine anyone being definitive on that yet," he said, pointing to redistricting that still leaves the shape up of the new district up in the air. As it stands, the district is an unusual blend of rural areas and some of up upstate New York's largest university of college communities. How the new district might turn out is a "black box" as New York official continue to draw new lines, said Schreibman.

At the same time, New York state is intending to move up its primary date this year, from what has been September to either June or August.

The short-lived speculation that Sen. Kent Conrad, D-N.D., might take over for Jack Lew as head of the Office of Management and Budget has come to an end. The Fargo Forum:

Given that Republican Gov. Jack Dalrymple would have the power to appoint a replacement if the retiring Democrat left office, the potential political cost of tapping Conrad made the possibility unlikely to begin with.

A day after activists delivered over a million petition signatures in the effort to recall Wisconsin Republican Gov. Scott Walker, former Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk announced her candidacy on Wednesday morning.

"Hope has inspired this movement and the people of this movement inspire me," the Democrat said in a video released on her campaign website. "That is why I have decided to run for governor, and will be making a formal announcement soon."

While she mentioned the issue, Falk underscored themes beyond collective bargaining for public employees, a subject which sparked the initial outcry against Walker. That's a tactic Democrats running in last summer's recall election utilized as well.

"As your governor, I will make different choices than Scott Walker. I know Wisconsin is a place where we can have good playing jobs, a clean environment, successful schools, affordable health care," Falk added.

Falk has run statewide before, for governor in 2002 and attorney general in 2006, and is perceived to be an early favorite to earn the backing of influential labor groups in the state.

"As far as I know, no labor group has put out any overt statement saying they support her. But the widespread understanding is that she is labor's first choice," said Charles Franklin, a visiting professor and polling director at Marquette University Law School, in an interview conducted in advance of Falk's announcement.

Updated at 11:40 a.m.

Sen. Jim DeMint, R-S.C., through his political action committee, Senate Conservatives Fund, today launched a $500,000 television ad buy in Texas to support former state Solicitor General Ted Cruz's bid for the GOP Senate nomination, according to Matt Hoskins, a spokesman for the PAC.

In an email to PAC members on Wednesday, DeMint said the commercial that will run through the end of January.

The "ad highlights Ted Cruz's conservative record and lets voters in the Lone Star State know there is an alternative to the Republican establishment," the email says.

The move indicates DeMint, despite declining to endorse in the presidential race, is sticking to his pledge to work to elect conservatives to the Senate. DeMint vows to repeat his effort in the 2010 cycle when he irked national Republicans by backing tea party candidates rather than candidates favored by the National Republican Senatorial Committee.

"This shows how committed DeMint is to electing strong conservatives to the Senate," Hoskins said.

DeMint has endorsed Senate candidates, including Cruz, in four GOP primary races, and plans further endorsements.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. A Florida congressional map takes another step closer to passage, Spence chips in $2 million of his own money in Missouri, Romney says he pays a tax rate approaching 15 percent and in Wisconsin a contested Democratic gubernatorial primary appears to be in the offing. Here's today's rundown:

8) Bielat's back: Republican Marine Corps reservist Sean Bielat, who challenged Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass., in 2010 is running again. He had some select words on Tuesday for Joseph Kennedy III, even though he did not mention the Democrat -- who is exploring a run for the retiring Frank's seat -- by name. The Boston Globe:

7) We're beginning to get an idea of the extent to which Missouri Republican Dave Spence is willing to self-fund his gubernatorial campaign: From Nov. 23 through Dec. 31, Spence raised $2.3 million, a haul which includes $2 million of his own money.

6) In Arizona, the Independent Redistricting Commission passed a map that creates four GOP districts, two Democratic districts and three tossup districts. Now it's up to the Justice Department to sign off.

David Letterman on Tuesday discovered an interesting fact about Mitt Romney's past while looking through his tax return: He really is the guy from underwear ads.

It turns out that Romney "earned $5,000 in residuals from a 1984 photo shoot he did for a JCPenney circular."

Don't miss today's Must See Moment at 1:45 when Jimmy Kimmel presents a revised Jon Huntsman ad that originally targeted Mitt Romney, but now endorses him:

Take our late-night poll after the jump...

Your roundup of Tuesday's top Senate/House fundraising news:

Senate:

-- Sen. Debbie Stabenow, D-Mich.: Stabenow raised over $1.2 million in the 4th quarter and finished with $5.9 million in the bank. It's respectable haul for an incumbent and Stabenow's big war chest will be tough for Republicans to match, but former Rep. Pete Hoekstra's million dollar fourth quarter haul did not lag too far behind Stabenow's. Hoekstra has not released his cash on hand total yet.

-- Texas Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst: Dewhurst raised over $1.54 million during the fourth quarter. He was one of the biggest winners of the third quarter, when he raised a very impressive $2.64 million. His pace slowed a bit this quarter, but it's still a respectable sum. Dewhurst loaned himself $2 million last quarter but his campaign says he did not loan himself anything this time around. He hasn't released his cash on hand total yet, so we don't know what his burn rate looks like quite yet.

House:

-- Rep. Vern Buchanan, R-Fla., raised more than $321,000 in the 4th quarter, finishing with $1.1 million in the bank, while former Democratic state Rep. Keith Fitzgerald pulled in about $223,000. It's a good start for the Democrat, who has come under scrutiny for alleged campaign finance violations.

Updated at 4:00 p.m.

Rep. Todd Platts, R-Pa., announced on Tuesday afternoon that he will retire at the end of this year, his sixth term in Congress.

"I have long believed in the importance of term limits and have sponsored twelve-year term limit legislation each term since first being elected to Congress," Platts said in a statement. "As such, I will not be seeking re-election to Congress and will leave office at the end of this year -- my twelfth year as Congressman for the 19th District."

York County, Pa., Republican Committee Chairman Bob Wilson said that the congressman gave him notice of his decision in a telephone call on Tuesday afternoon. Wilson said Platts decision leaves him "shocked and surprised. I don't know if anyone saw this coming."

But he said Platts described his decision as being based on family reasons, "a decision he made with his wife and his children."

"I cannot emphasize enough that my dedication and commitment to the people of the 19th District has been a dedicated, family commitment. Although coming home to York every night certainly has allowed me to maintain a very close and personal engagement with my family, there have been plenty of family dinners, kids' ballgames, and other school or family events that I have had to miss due to the demands of my office," Platts said in his statement.

Updated at 3:38 p.m.

Wisconsin Republican Gov. Scott Walker is virtually certain to face a recall election following an announcement from the state Democratic Party that over a million signatures will be filed on Tuesday afternoon with the aim of putting the first term governor on the ballot this year.

"The collection of more than one million signatures represents a crystal clear indication of how strong the appetite is to stop the damage and turmoil that Scott Walker has caused Wisconsin," said Ryan Lawler, board member for United Wisconsin, the group spearheading the signature gathering process.

Just over 540,000 valid signatures are required to trigger a recall election. Activists had 60 days to collect the signatures, during which time they brought in nearly double the requisite amount.

The National Republican Congressional Committee will begin airing a 30-second television advertisement in coordination with Republican Rob Cornilles's campaign on Wednesday, marking the first time a GOP-aligned outside group has purchased air time in the Oregon special election.

The ad goes after Democratic candidate Suzanne Bonamici for attacking Cornilles and slams her as a Medicare-cutting, tax-raising politician "with no record of job creation" before touching on Cornilles's experience as a businessman.

The coordinated ad comes on the heels of a Cornilles campaign poll, released over the weekend, that showed the Republican trailing Bonamici by only four points, 46-42 percent. The most recent public polling in the district had Bonamici ahead by double digits.

Coordinated expenditures between campaigns and independent committees are limited, so the buy does not represent a huge commitment by the NRCC, especially in comparison to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which has spent over $1 million in the special election.

The ad is the first sign that national Republicans are taking serious interest in the race. National Democrats, on the other hand, have already invested money on advertising, as several groups have already hit the airwaves. In addition to the DCCC, EMILY's List and Planned Parenthood have gone on the air and the Democratic-aligned House Majority PAC has reserved air time for the stretch run of the race.

Oregon's elections are conducted entirely by mail. Voters in the district have already begun to receive ballots for the Jan. 31 election.

Check out the full script of the ad and video of the spot after the jump.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Romney is able to thwart attacks during Monday's debate, the ad war heats up in the Indiana Senate race, Carmona raises $570,000 in Arizona while Brown and Warren call for a cease-fire. And we're reminded that North Dakota is quite the small state -- all in today's rundown:

10) Sen. Scott Brown, R-Mass. has taken a page out of Newt Gingrich's playbook, calling for a ban on all outside advertising in the Senate race against Democrat Elizabeth Warren. For her part, Warren is all for it.

It's worth remembering that Brown has been getting significant help from outside groups too, with American Crossroads pouring in big bucks attacking Warren's record. If anything, Warren has an advantage if there wasn't any outside money pouring in, since she has an impressive, reliable source of outside funding to her own campaign from individuals across the country excited about her candidacy.

9) Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu raised about $263,000 during the fourth quarter, finishing the period with about $235,000 in the bank. Babeu is facing off against Rep. Paul Gosar in the new 4th District Republican primary.

8) An internal poll conducted for Republican businessman Rob Cornilles has him down just four points to Democrat Suzanne Bonamici in Oregon's 1st District special election. The question is whether the numbers are enough to get national Republican groups off the bench to lend Cornilles a hand during the stretch run of the race leading up to Jan. 31. Remember, it's an all-mail election and some voters have already cast ballots, limiting the extent to which the needle can be moved as the end of the month approaches.

7) Virginia Republican Del. Bob Marshall made it official on Monday; he's in the Senate race. "I can beat Tim Kaine," he said. His more immediate worry, however, will be running against former Sen. George Allen, the GOP frontrunner.

6) Richard Carmona, the former surgeon general that national Democrats -- including President Obama himself -- recruited into the Arizona Senate raised $570,000 in the 4th quarter during six weeks. It's a respectable haul, given Carmona's limited time in the race. We'll get a better sense of his full fundraising capability during his first full quarter (from January-March 2012).

5) Here's something to keep an eye on in North Dakota: Retiring Democratic Sen. Kent Conrad's name has been getting some OMB buzz following Jack Lew's reassignment to the role of White House chief of staff.

If Conrad does end up leaving to become the new director, the governor -- Republican Jack Dalrymple -- would appoint a replacement. Small world: Conrad beat Dalrymple in the 1992 special Senate election.

Jon Huntsman bowed out of the Republican presidential race, but that's not the only reason he's having a tough week.

"Earlier this week, he found out he was not really a Kardashian," David Letterman joked on Monday.

Don't miss today's Must See Moment at 0:24 when Letterman presents a preview for Oprah's interview with New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie.

Take our late-night poll after the jump...

Businessman Rob Cornilles, the Republican running to replace disgraced ex-Rep. David Wu, D-Ore., is just four points behind the Democratic front-runner, according to a survey taken for his campaign.

Former Democratic state Sen. Suzanne Bonamici has a 46 percent to 42 percent lead over Cornilles, according to the survey conducted by Moore Information, a Portland-based Republican pollster.

The survey, conducted Jan. 11-12 of 300 likely voters, had a margin of error of plus or minus 6 percent. Bonamici was underperforming among a sample that was nearly half Democratic; 48 percent of respondents identified themselves as Democrats, while just 35 percent said they were Republicans.

Updated on January 15 at 10:40 a.m.

What we at The Hotline learned this week:

-- When examining South Carolina's political landscape heading into next Saturday's Republican primary, keep in mind two important numbers that could go a long way toward determining the fate of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and his rivals: 5.5 and 9.9.

When John McCain won South Carolina's GOP primary in 2008, the state's unemployment rate was 5.5 percent. Four years later, that number is 9.9 percent. In 2008, only 40 percent of South Carolina voters listed the economy as their top priority, according to exit polls. Look for that number to be much higher this time around, and look for Romney -- who has dominated that fiscal-focused voting bloc in the first two nominating states -- to reap the benefits.

-- The number of potentially competitive Senate races seems to be inching up, compared to where they were just a few months ago. Although not in the toss-up category, polls now suggest that Democrats may be competitive in North Dakota and Arizona, while Republicans may have a shot in Florida and Michigan. And while hardly competitive, at least the parties are now fielding challengers -- who cannot be dismissed as nuisance candidates -- to Sens. Olympia Snowe (R) and Joe Manchin (D).

-- Talk about Senate races in Washington State long enough, and the discussion will inevitably turn to Republican Rep. Dave Reichert, who high-profile Republicans have had on their recruitment wish list for some time. Each cycle his name comes up, and each cycle he opts to run for reelection to the House. Don't expect anything different in 2012, with an 8th District that gained some GOP-friendly turf east of the Cascades following redistricting. The latest sign of Reichert's strong standing at home: His 2010 Democratic opponent just joined his opponent from 2006/2008 in the 1st District race.

-- 2012 is looking like 2011 in West Virginia, with Raese/Manchin and Tomblin/Maloney rematches cooking up. To say Manchin and Tomblin have both won by keeping President Obama at arm's length would be an understatement. In 2011, Tomblin wouldn't even commit to voting for the president; and Manchin's most famous advertisement from 2010 features him shooting the cap and trade bill. The president will lose the state by a substantial margin, so Manchin/Tomblin - still the early favorites to win reelection - could have to outrun their party's leader by 15 points or more in the Mountain State.

With the exception of Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, the Republican presidential contenders will appear on a special edition of FNC's Huckabee titled "Forum 2: South Carolina Undecided." Former Arkansas Republican Governor Mike Huckabee will be joined by Rep. Tim Scott, R-S.C., and the candidates will field questions from an audience of undecided South Carolina voters.

Former Speaker Newt Gingrich will be appearing on Face the Nation and Meet the Press. Rick Tyler, adviser to the pro-Gingrich super PAC Winning Our Future, a group supporting Gingrich, will be on Fox News Sunday as the group launched a 28 minute ad attacking Romney's business record. Former Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pa., will be on both Face the Nation and Fox News Sunday. Texas Republican Gov. Rick Perry will be on CNN's State of the Union and ABC's This Week. Club for Growth President Chris Chocola will discuss 2012 on Fox News Sunday.

The presidential race has a new twist as Comedy Central's Stephen Colbert will appear on This Week following his announcement that he is launching an exploratory committee to run for president, even as the South Carolina filing deadline has passed.

Palmetto State pols dominate the Sunday show circuit as Meet the Press hosts Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., and Rep. Tim Scott, R-S.C. while Sen. Jim DeMint, R-S.C., will be on Face the Nation.

South Carolina Baptist Convention President Rev. Brad Atkins and Bob Jones University Chancellor Bob Jones III will be on State of the Union. Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., will also be on State of the Union.

President Obama and the Democrats' 2012 prospects will be the subject of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's appearance on Meet the Press and Obama adviser David Axelrod's appearance on State of the Union.

This weekend on the OWN Network, Oprah Winfrey's new primetime series Oprah's Next Chapter will feature an interview with New Jersey Republican Governor Chris Christie on Sunday night at 9 pm. He'll share his thoughts on the campaigns of Obama and Romney and provide details of his own personal struggles.

Check out the full listings after the jump.

There is still much to learn about what type of Senate candidate Craig James will end up being, but on his first day meeting the media -- and the other GOP candidates, in a debate on Thursday night -- we learned that he's pretty quotable. Some gems from the Houston Chronicle, Dallas Morning News and Austin American-Statesman stories:

-- He believes that "right is right; wrong is wrong. It's never right to do wrong."

-- "I will not go up there and be soft," he said. "When I go to Washington, D.C., you can rest assured that I'm going up there to kick the skunks out of the bushes."

-- "Just look to the Constitution, look to the playbook."

James also said he accepted "an insignificant amount" of gifts from boosters when he was a college running back. Not exactly an ideal subject for day one of a statewide bid.

Republican John Raese's entrance into the West Virginia Senate race gives Republicans a candidate with the ability to self-fund against Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin. But perhaps Manchin can save money by recycling old television advertisements from his 2010 matchup with the businessman.

Raese's initial step into the race won't do anything to help rid him of the perception -- pushed aggressively by Manchin in 2010 -- that he's a wealthy, out-of-touch Floridian. The Charleston Gazette, on Raese filing to run for Senate Thursday:

Back in the 2010 race, Manchin and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee focused their fire on the Florida issue in the days before the election. And it proved to be an effective tactic.

Democratic and Republican Insiders are sharply divided over the impact of super PACs on the political process. While almost all of the Democratic strategists surveyed in this week's National Journal Political Insiders Poll said super PACs are negatively impacting the political process, nearly 60 percent of Republicans defended the influence of the committees.

The Pennsylvania GOP Senate field is muddled right now, but by the end of the month, the picture could grow considerably clearer.

The field could shrink by at least two candidates if the state Republican Committee makes an endorsement following its upcoming meeting at the end of the month. Buried in an AP story are indications from the campaigns of businessmen Tim Burns and Steve Welch that both will call it quits if they don't earn the state party's backing:

The state party will meet on Jan. 28 to decide whether to endorse a candidate. And in a field with several political outsiders and self-funders, it's anyone's guess who will win.

In a sign that labor is beginning to take sides in a hotly-contested member-versus-member Democratic primary, Rep. Mark Critz, D-Pa., will roll out the first union endorsement of his race against fellow Pennsylvania Democratic Rep. Jason Altmire in the new 12th District, with more endorsements to come soon.

Critz won the backing of the United Mine Workers, who traditionally gave the first union endorsement of each cycle to the late Democratic Rep. John Murtha, Critz's old boss. "Mark has been a steadfast friend of the United Mine Workers and all working men and women, and he merits the opportunity to continue that work," Edward Yankovich, the UMW International District 2 vice president, said Friday. "We'll do everything we can to help Mark win the primary and then the general election."

A Democratic strategist close to Critz said that more labor unions will be coming out in support of the second-term Democrat soon, marking the second stage of the endorsement race, a critical one for Critz. Last week, the two candidates trumpeted support from local Democratic elected officials and party officials.

Union endorsements are a key part of Critz's strategy in the primary against Altmire, who represented more of the current district's population than Critz before the two were drawn inside the same lines by Pennsylvania's redistricting last year. Though the 12th District leans Republican in national politics -- Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., won 54 percent of the vote there in the 2008 presidential election -- many of the white working class voters who have deserted the Democratic Party at the presidential level are still open to voting for socially conservative Democrats, like Altmire and Critz, locally. And in Western Pennsylvania, many of those white working-class voters are union members.

But Altmire has had a troubled relationship with unions in the last few years. The labor community made its displeasure known to Altmire after the congressman publicly went back and forth on health care reform in early 2010 before eventually voting against the legislation.

Democrats have long had their eye on Rep. Dave Reichert's, R-Wash., 8th District seat, running two very competitive candidates against the former King County sheriff during the last three cycles. But Darcy Burner, Reichert's 2006 and 2008 opponent, has already announced she is running in the new 1st District this cycle. On Thursday, Reichert's 2010 opponent, former Microsoft executive Suzan DelBene, announced she will join Burner in the 1st District contest.

"The 1st Congressional District is a diverse district that has been hit hard by the Great Recession. It needs a representative in Congress who has the experience and the innovative ideas that will get our economy back on the right track and create jobs, and I believe I offer those qualities," DelBene said in a statement. DelBene's home landed in the 1st District under the new map.

Following redistricting, the new 1st District will look a lot like Democratic Rep. Rick Larsen's old 2nd District, but with the Democratic-leaning coast sliced off. Democrats appear to have the early edge there, but Republican redistricting commissioner and former GOP Sen. Slade Gorton said the district could be the most closely divided in the country this year. The 1st District race is already a crowded affair.

Look for the roller-coaster ride of the Republican presidential nominating contest to pull into the station by the end of the month. And much like a roller coaster, it's likely to end right where it started -- with Mitt Romney at the top. That's the view of roughly three-quarters of the strategists and experts surveyed in this week's National Journal Political Insiders Poll.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Dewhurst's opponents pile it on during the first Texas Senate debate, Romney takes to the airwaves to defend himself over Bain criticism in South Carolina, Berkley and Heller are running even in the money chase and Parker Griffith is ready for a rematch. Here's today's rundown:

7) Should it be easier to get married on a whim in New Jersey? Your call, Gov. Chris Christie.

6) A Florida congressional map that shores up the Republican advantage took a step closer to passage this week.

5) Rematch in Alabama: Former Parker Griffith will run in the GOP primary once again against freshman Rep. Mo Brooks in the 5th District.

4) Rep. Shelley Berkley, D-Nev., raised $1.1 million during the fourth quarter, finishing 2011 with $3.75 million in the bank. The money race at the end of the year in Nevada was pretty even: GOP Sen. Dean Heller finished with $3.65 million in the bank.

Stephen Colbert on Thursday handed over control of his Super PAC to fellow late-nighter Jon Stewart before announcing that he's exploring a presidential run in South Carolina.

"For over a day now, the people of South Carolina have been crying out for someone who can restore our nation's former greatness to its current perfect," he said. "Well, America, that someone is now."

Don't miss today's Must See Moment at 2:04 when David Letterman presents a tribute to Hostess, which recently filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy.

Take our late-night poll after the jump...

CORRECTION: The previous version of this post incorrectly stated the ballot overlap between Obama and Manchin. They both appeared on the ballot in West Virginia in 2008.

2012 is beginning to look a lot like 2011 and 2010 in West Virginia.

First, Republican businessman Bill Maloney announced he would likely challenge Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin, setting up a rematch of their 2011 contest. And on Thursday, GOP sources confirmed that Republican businessman John Raese filed paperwork for a Senate run, triggering a rematch with Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin.

Raese will be making his fifth run for statewide office -- he previously ran in 1984, 1988, and 2006 as well as in 2010, when he faced Manchin. Manchin defeated him by ten points after a tough campaign in which Raese tried to tie the then-governor to President Obama, who is very unpopular in the state. Manchin, meanwhile, successfully cast Raese as a carpetbagger who was out of touch with West Virginians. On Thursday, Democrats were quick to use the same line of attack.

Your Thursday Senate race fundraising roundup: Heller improves on his poor third quarter showing, Hoekstra turns in a second straight seven figure outing and Murphy keeps trucking along in Connecticut:

-- Sen. Dean Heller, R-Nev.: Heller's campaign announced it has raised more than $1.1 million in the fourth quarter. It's a major improvement over the third quarter, when Heller lagged well behind Democratic Rep. Shelley Berkley, taking in just $673,000 to her $1.2 million. Berkley has yet to release her fundraising numbers, but she raised approximately $1.2 million in each of the previous two quarters. The fundraising race between the two is expected to be very tight.

-- Former Rep. Pete Hoekstra, R-Mich.: Hoekstra raised $1 million, enjoying his second straight seven figure quarter and further silencing critics who have raised doubts about his ability to raise money. His main Republican opponent Clark Durant's fundraising slowed a bit in the fourth quarter, making Hoekstra's look even better. But Durant still brought in $600,000 without any self-funding, which means he's not going away, at least in the money chase.

-- Sen. Bill Nelson, D-Fla.: Nelson announced a haul of $1.4 million during the fourth quarter, a bit of a tick down from his $1.9 million take in the third quarter. But more importantly, he has built up a very substantial warchest of $8.5 million, and no one in the GOP field is even close.

A new system that supposedly takes the politics out of California's decennial redistricting process has now claimed a third victim after Rep. Jerry Lewis said Thursday he will end his three-decade tenure in Washington.

Lewis joins Reps. Elton Gallegly and Wally Herger, two other long-tenured Republicans who have decided not to seek re-election in 2012.

And the fallout won't end with those three. The two remaining scenarios include one that will make Republicans happy and one that will help Democrats.

Lewis's departure likely means the GOP will avoid a costly and ugly internal war between Reps. Ed Royce and Gary Miller, two Inland Empire Republicans who find themselves drawn into the same seat. Lewis had the option to run in either the 8th District or the 31st. Now, Miller will run in the 31st, with Royce seeking the neighboring 39th District.

Seventy-seven-year-old Rep. Jerry Lewis, R-Calif., announced that he will retire at the end of his current term on Thursday, bringing the number of Republicans retiring from the House outright this cycle to five. National Journal's Shane Goldmacher:

Following the 2010 election when Republicans won back control of the House, Lewis competed for his old post as chairman of the powerful Appropriations Committee in a three-way race that included Reps. Jack Kingston, R-Ga., and Hal Rogers, R-Ky., who won the post.

"Jerry Lewis is a steadfast public servant whose commitment to job creation and opportunity for California families and businesses empowered his accomplished congressional service," said National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Pete Sessions.

Lewis joins Reps. Herger, Gallegly, Steve Austria, R-Ohio, and Geoff Davis, R-Ky., on the list of House Republicans retiring outright. Six other Republicans are leaving the House to pursue other offices.

Lewis was elected to the House in 1978.

Virginia Republican state Del. Bob Marshall is preparing to enter the GOP Senate primary, telling Hotline On Call that he will announce his candidacy "soon." Marshall's candidacy will mean a headache for former Sen. George Allen, the frontrunner for the GOP nomination.

When asked about a rumor that he was planning to declare his bid on Friday, Marshall said, "No, that's not true. It will be soon but not Friday."

When asked to clarify that he does, in fact, plan to announce his candidacy, Marshall replied, "Yes, correct." He said he is "not 100 percent sure" where he will announce his bid.

Marshall added, "I'm doing everything a person would do to run," which includes seeking signatures across the commonwealth so he gains access to the Virginia primary ballot for the June 12 contest.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. President Obama and the DNC raise a combined $68 million in the fourth quarter of 2011, while Mazie Hirono doubles up her previous quarterly haul. Meanwhile, Donna Edwards catches a break in Maryland while in Texas, an important debate will take place tonight. Here's today's rundown:

8) Missouri Republican Dave Spence's economics degree turned out to be a home economics degree, and now, his long-shot GOP gubernatorial opponent is having a little fun, releasing all of his own transcripts from Harvard Law School, Baylor University, and Southwest Baptist University.

7) Barry Ellsworth, the founder of a renewable energy company plans to challenge Rep. Shelley Berkley, D-Nev., in the Senate race. He's also a Democratic donor, and has given to, among others, Berkley.

6) Rep. Mazie Hirono, D-Hawaii, picked up her fundraising pace during the fourth quarter of 2011, bringing in $624,000 and ending the year with over $1 million in the bank for her Senate campaign. She more than doubled her third quarter haul.

5) Rep. Donna Edwards, D-Md., caught a big break on Wednesday when Glenn Ivey announced -- just hours before the filing deadline -- that he is pulling out of the race in the 4th District. The Baltimore Sun:

Edwards recently landed the endorsement of Democratic Sen. Barbara Mikulski.

Jon Stewart dissected the results of the New Hampshire primary on The Daily Show Wednesday.

"It was an historic win for Romney, as he became the first Republican non-incumbent to win both Iowa and New Hampshire while still having no one like him," Stewart quipped.

Don't miss today's Must See Moment at 2:42 when David Letterman presents an ad for the only candidate who can take on Romney, Rewt Santingrich:

Take our late-night poll after the jump...

Herman Cain is back in the political mix!

He's headed to Florida for an event with another Republican who spent his career in the restaurant industry, Craig Miller, the former CEO of Ruth's Chris Steakhouse who is running for the Senate in Florida. The Tampa Bay Times:

Miller could use the publicity -- he's registering in the single digits in the live caller polling on the race that has been released publicly.

Sen. Richard Lugar, R-Ind., raised $750,000 during the fourth quarter of 2011, finishing the period with $4 million in the bank, his campaign tells Hotline On Call.

In total, Lugar raised over $3.3 million in 2011. His fourth quarter haul represents a drop-off from the second and third quarters of last year, when he raised $911,000 and $843,000, respectively.

When asked for GOP state Treasurer Richard Mourdock's fourth quarter numbers, his campaign declined to provide them.

Fundraising has been a major question mark for Mourdock, who ended the third quarter with just $291,000 in the bank, after raising $438,000, including $100,000 of his own money during the period.

Lugar's numbers are not terrific, and he's been spending money, but given the warchest he's built and Mourdock's struggles, he's in credible shape. He already has a fundraiser with Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels on the calendar this year.

The results of latest Quinnipiac University Florida poll show some troubling signs for both President Obama and Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson. But a closer look at the two Democrats reveals that voters in Florida aren't viewing them the same way.

As Republicans try to link Nelson to Obama at every turn, strategists in the state in both parties concede that he has cultivated a reputation as a noncontroversial figure, distinct from national Democrats. That's a reason he can win in Florida, even if Obama can't.

"Nelson is one of the few Democrats with a statewide identity, and that really distinguishes him from everybody else, who is generally going to be tied to a national trend line," said Democrat Dan Gelber, a former state House minority leader.

"Barack Obama is a polarizing figure in Florida. Bill Nelson is not," said GOP strategist Ana Navarro.

Polling backs that argument up. In the newly-released Quinnipiac survey, Obama's approval rating is under water: just 42 percent of voters approve of the job he is doing while 54 percent disapprove. Nelson's numbers are better: Forty-seven percent approve of the job he is doing while 30 percent disapprove.

Obama is struggling among seniors, which make up a major part of the state's electorate. While his approval rating is 47 percent among voters aged 18-49, it falls to just 39 percent among voters over 50. Nelson performs considerably better among seniors. His approval rating among voters aged 18-49 is, like Obama's, 47 percent. But 46 percent of voters aged 50-64 and 49 percent of votes over 65 approve of the job Nelson is doing.

"The problem for Obama is that those over 50 make up 62 percent of the electorate, compared to the 35 percent who are under 50," said Quinnipiac pollster Peter Brown.

One of the reasons Nelson does well among older voters is that he is a familiar face, having served as insurance commissioner, and in the state House and U.S. House before he was elected senator.

"He's won when George Bush has been on the ballot, and he's won when Bill Clinton has been on the ballot," said Florida Democratic strategist Todd Wilder.

Another eye-popping fundraising period from Democrat Elizabeth Warren in Massachusetts: $5.7 million raised during the fourth quarter of 2011 with a cool $6 million in the bank to end the period.

Warren's campaign said the average contribution was $64 and the number of Massachusetts contributors increased to about 23,000.

The Boston Globe first reported Warren's total.

Warren's fourth quarter total becomes the undisputed standout of the cycle so far: No non-self-funders have topped her mark in one quarter in any other Senate race so far.

Republican Sen. Scott Brown has a healthy $12.8 million in the bank after a productive $3.2 million fourth quarter. But in just two fundraising periods, Warren has achieved about half of Brown's impressive cash on hand total. That's the sign of a campaign with a lot of enthusiasm behind it.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Romney wins in New Hampshire, but he'll face his toughest challenge yet in South Carolina. Meanwhile, McCrory will kick off his gubernatorial bid at the end of the month while Obama's numbers in Florida should concern Democrats. Here's today's rundown:

6) Here's something that will surely surface again, if Haley Barbour decides to make a run at national office down the road: On Tuesday, his last day as governor of Mississippi, Barbour granted 193 pardons. In total, he granted 203 full pardons including 17 to convicted murderers, according to the New York Times.

5) Former Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory plans to formally kick off his GOP gubernatorial campaign on Jan. 31.

4) Bad news for President Obama in Florida: His approval rating is upside down, according to the latest Quinnipiac University poll. Just 42 percent of voters approve of the way he is handling his job while 54 percent disapprove. That is unchanged from late Nov./early Dec. Obama trails Mitt Romney 46 percent to 43 percent in the poll.

Late-night hosts took full advantage of mocking the first-in-the-nation primary that begins with voting in a town called Dixsville Notch.

"I do have the latest from the New Hampshire primaries," Conan O'Brien said. "A white guy's in first with two white guys trailing."

Don't miss today's Must See Moment at 3:37 when Jay Leno shows the woman behind Newt Gingrich's debate performances:

Take our late-night poll after the jump...

Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson and Republican Rep. Connie Mack remain locked in a neck-and-neck race in Florida's Senate race, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll released early on Wednesday.

Nelson leads Mack by a single point, 41 percent to 40 percent, well within the poll's margin of error of +/- 2.6 percent. Nineteen percent of voters said they were undecided, preferred another candidate or would not vote.

That is virtually unchanged from late October and early November, shortly after it was reported that Mack had reversed course and intended to challenge Nelson, when the incumbent led Mack by just two points.

Nelson wins 77 percent of Democrats in the latest poll, while Mack holds 82 percent of Republicans. Independent voters tilt to Nelson, 44 percent to 33 percent.

(The poll surveyed slightly more Republicans (32 percent of the total sample) than Democrats (29 percent). In the 2010 midterm elections, the percentages of Republicans (36 percent) and Democrats (36 percent) were equal, according to exit polls. Exit polls from the 2008 election show Democrats with a three-point edge in party identification over Republicans.)

Mack is miles ahead of the rest of the GOP field in the primary, though he remains under the critical 50-percent threshold. Thirty-nine percent of registered Republicans say they would vote for Mack in the primary, while no other candidate break double-digits: Former Sen. George LeMieux and retired Army Col. Mike McCalister, each with 6 percent, lead the GOP also-rans.

Given that the economy is the top issue in just about every statewide race right now, it's only natural for a candidate to tout his or her credentials on the subject.

If, say, you have an economics degree, it would be prudent to point that out -- as Dave Spence, Republican candidate for governor in Missouri does.

"After high school, Dave attended University of Missouri-Columbia and earned a degree in Economics," says the biography on his campaign website.

Not a bad idea to include that information ... unless it's not completely accurate, as the St. Louis Post-Dispatch finds:

Buried at the bottom of a weekend story in the Omaha World-Herald lies an important nugget that could persuade former Democratic Sen. Bob Kerrey to wait a little bit longer before making a decision on the Senate race:

As Daily Kos Elections points out, Heineman and Democrat Steve Lathrop (two others mulling the race as well), both being incumbents, have less time than Kerrey to decide. If Kerrey waits a bit, he can see whether he would be facing a potentially stronger Republican field and/or a Democratic opponent (Kerrey says publicly that what Heineman does won't impact his own decision).

It's akin to being in a position to play offense second in overtime of a college football game because you want to know exactly what you have to do to win or tie (Or, to use DKE's analogy, it's like a golfer hitting second off the tee.)

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Romney is forced to play defense, even as he's headed toward a victory in New Hampshire, Fortenberry and Terry say no thanks to a Nebraska Senate bid, Allen raises a little over $1 million and Rick Scott's approval rating ticks up to its high water mark -- just 38 percent. Here's today's rundown:

8) David Dreier for Senate? House Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif, suggested that Rep. David Dreier, R-Calif., would be a compelling candidate against Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif. After redistricting in California, Dreier doesn't have a favorable district to run in - and could have a better shot at the Senate.

Feinstein hasn't faced a competitive re-election since 1994, though public polls have shown her approval rating at all-time lows. (A September Field poll pegged it at 41 percent, with 39 percent disapproving.) That said, California has been a safely Democratic state, and well-funded businesswoman Carly Fiorina lost badly in 2010 to Sen. Barbara Boxer, D-Calif. - in an otherwise favorable year for Republicans.

McCarthy told the Bee: "I look at the numbers; her numbers are not where they should be."

7) A 47 percent plurality of Florida voters approve of the job that Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson is doing, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll out early Tuesday, equal to his approval rating in a November survey.

Nelson is seeking reelection this year against a GOP field currently led by GOP Rep. Connie Mack. The poll also shows a slight uptick for GOP Gov. Rick Scott, whose approval rating is now up to 38 percent, the highest of his one-year stint in office; half of voters still disapprove of Scott's job performance. Republican Sen. Marco Rubio remains popular, with an approval rating of 50 percent, with just 29 percent of Sunshine State voters disapproving of how he is handling his job.

6) Businessman Marc Cenedella, a potential challenger to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, D-N.Y., will meet with top Erie County Republicans this weekend.

5) Former Sen. George Allen, R-Va., raised nearly $1.1 million during the fourth quarter of 2011, finishing the period with $2 million in the bank.

The Daily Show on Monday tackled the back-to-back Republican presidential debates this weekend in New Hampshire, using Newt Gingrich's "pious baloney" remarks against the former House speaker.

And don't miss today's Must See Moment at 1:57 when Jay Leno shows how Rick Santorum will stop at nothing to appeal to evangelicals:

Take our late-night poll after the jump...

Updated at 2:05 p.m.

Rep. Wally Herger, R-Calif., who has served in the House since 1987, will retire at the end of his current term, he announced on Tuesday.

"I have been blessed with the privilege of serving my community, district, state and country for 35 years and being part of some of the most important events in our nation's history," Herger said in a statement. "That privilege came with many sacrifices, the foremost of which was all the time spent away from my family and my home here in Northern California. I want to focus on my family and enjoy spending time with my grandchildren before they grow up."

Herger is 66 years old. He won reelection in the safely Republican second district, which includes Redding and Chico, in 2010 with 57 percent of the vote. Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., won there with 55 percent of the vote in 2008. Following redistricting, Herger would be placed into the new first district, which is still a safe Republican seat.

Herger serves as chairman of the Ways and Means Committee's Health subcommittee, and has been an outspoken critic of President Obama's health care reform law.

In announcing his retirement, Herger threw his support to Republican state Sen. Doug LaMalfa, who is running to succeed him.

"My most important concern when making the decision to retire from Congress was that the North State continue to be represented by a conservative who fully understands, and appreciates, our agricultural and natural resources-based economy and who has the proven ability to represent such a vast and unique area. That's why I asked local farmer and State Senator Doug LaMalfa to consider running and am happy that he has agreed," Herger said. "Doug has my endorsement and full support."

Herger is the fourth House Republican to retire outright this cycle, joining Reps. Elton Gallegly, R-Calif., Steve Austria, R-Ohio, and Geoff Davis, R-Ky. Six other Republicans are leaving the House to run for other offices.

The most memorable gaffe of Martha Coakley's failed 2009-2010 Senate campaign ("As opposed to standing outside Fenway Park? In the cold? Shaking hands?") is not lost on Elizabeth Warren, whose campaign tweeted this photo over the weekend of the Democrat standing outside Fenway Park, shaking hands with voters:

(h/t Mother Jones)

Warren's account tweeted the photo at 6:57 p.m. on Saturday. At 6:54 p.m. at Logan Airport, it was 52 degrees on Saturday; so not a frigid day in Boston. But you get the idea.

Mike Huckabee endorsed Texas Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst's Senate candidacy on Monday, putting him at odds with the Club For Growth in a Senate race for the second time this cycle.

It's no secret that Huckabee and Club have had a tense relationship over the years. In 2006, when Huckabee, as governor of Arkansas, signed a minimum wage increase into law, the Club was critical of the move, and Huckabee, in turn, was reproachful. In 2008, the group continued to blast Huckabee during his presidential run.

Last spring, Huckabee defended Donald Trump against the Club's criticism, saying, "according to that group, I'm also a tax-loving socialist. During the 2008 election they cherry-picked some factoids out of context from the deals I had to make from a ninety percent Democratic Arkansas legislature."

This cycle, Huckabee has also endorsed former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson's Senate candidacy. The Club has been very critical of Thompson, even running a TV ad against him during the off year in 2011. The Club is behind Mark Neumann, the former congressman. Sen. Jim DeMint, R-S.C. has also endorsed Neumann.

Lots of action in Utah politics over the past few days, with Utah tea party leader David Kirkham all but announcing a primary challenge to GOP Gov. Gary Herbert and GOP state Rep. Chris Herrod jumping into the race for Sen. Orrin Hatch's seat.

But the two challengers have more in common than a desire to run for statewide office and conservative platforms. In addition to the usual tea party-friendly themes, both men also invoked something more unusual: fears of the United States turning into something like communist Europe. From the Salt Lake Tribune:

And here's the Salt Lake Tribune again, on Kirkham:

The Supreme Court grappled inconclusively for 70 minutes on Monday with a challenge by Texas to a federal appeals court's effort to substitute "interim" electoral maps that favor Democratic and Hispanic candidates for the maps drawn by the state legislature, which favor Republicans.

The potentially momentous case could deliver three of the state's new congressional seats from Republicans to Democrats if the state loses, possibly even helping Democrats gain a House majority.

But the battery of questions and comments by eight of the justices today pointed to no clear majority consensus about any of the case's most important aspects.

The proceedings are unfolding amid extraordinary time pressure to come up with acceptable voting districts in a hurry, with the state's primary elections now set for April 3. Postponing the primary until as late as June was one possibility explored by some justices.

The case grows out of a tangle of lawsuits challenging the legislature's maps for redistricting the Texas legislature itself as well as the state's congressional delegation.
The state has already met partial setbacks in two different three-judge federal courts, the appeals panel sitting in San Antonio and a special three-judge federal district court sitting Washington, D.C.

But on December 9, when the Supreme Court agreed to hear the case on an expedited basis, it suspended for the time being the Democrat-friendly "interim" maps for the 2012 elections that were chosen in November by a 2-1 vote of the San Antonio panel.

It's been a cold winter so far for North Carolina Gov. Bev Perdue.

The first-term Democrat released her fundraising total for the second half of 2011 late last week: She brought in $1.3 million, which is less than the $1.5 million former Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory -- the very likely Republican nominee -- raised during the same period.

The two ended 2011 with very even fundraising numbers: Perdue raised $2.6 million, McCrory $2.5 million. Both finished the year with over $2 million in the bank.

But it's not a good sign for an incumbent to be running neck-and-neck in the money chase against her likely challenger. Perdue is generally regarded by strategists in both parties to be 2012's most vulnerable Democratic governor up for reelection.

"Pat McCrory has spent an entire year running around the state from fundraiser to fundraiser ... being a full-time candidate (or "non-candidate") for Governor. During the same period of time, Governor Perdue's #1 priority has been being Governor," said Perdue campaign manager Fiona Conroy.

Sen. Scott Brown, R-Mass., announced raising more than $3.2 million during the final fundraising quarter last year, a substantial haul that the campaign says left them with about $12.8 million in the bank.

It's likely to be among the biggest hauls of any Senate campaign, in what is expected to be an extremely expensive Senate race. Outside groups have already begun pouring money into the contest on both sides.

Brown's likely Democratic opponent, Elizabeth Warren, has quickly shown her fundraising prowess as well, raising close to $3.2 million herself in the third quarter last year, despite only officially entering the race in September. Warren has yet to release her fundraising haul from the fourth quarter.

"Despite our success, we also know that our opponent is getting lots of financial support from extreme liberal special interests and she will likely surpass our numbers," Brown's finance director John Cook wrote in a note to supporters.

Another Republican sounds ready to challenge GOP Gov. Gary Herbert in a Utah race that already includes two other Republican challengers.

David Kirkham, the leading tea party activist in the state, told the Salt Lake Tribune he is "99.99 percent" sure he will run and could make a decision "any second."

Kirkham would join a field that includes Morgan Philpot (who ran against Democratic Rep. Jim Matheson in 2010) and state Rep. Ken Sumsion, who have both been staking out ground on Herbert's right. How strong is the animosity against Herbert on the right in Utah? Kirkham put it this way to Hotline On Call in an April interview:

In another state, the long-term prognosis of a primary with multiple challengers might seem encouraging for an vulnerable incumbent; the prospect of an anti-incumbent vote split could open the door a to a plurality win. But in Utah, the April convention nomination process means a different scenario.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Romney's Bain background gets a closer look, as Gingrich is getting millions in backing for South Carolina. Meanwhile, Bob Kerrey gives the Nebraska Senate race a closer look, Hatch/Liljenquist get company in the Utah Senate race, and Carl Paladino lends Gingrich a helping hand ... or something. Here's today's rundown:

11) The Supreme Court will hear oral arguments today in the standoff over the redistricting map in Texas. Already, the spat has caused the state's primary elections to be pushed back from March to April.

10) Rep. Elton Gallegly, R-Calif., announced on Saturday that he won't run for a 14th term. The biggest takeaway from his decision: It avoids a messy intraparty battle between Gallegly and House Armed Services Committee Chairman Buck McKeon.

9) The Oregonian endorsed Democrat Suzanne Bonamici in the OR-01 special election.

8) The Republican-controlled Tennessee state legislature's proposed congressional map that was released on Friday alters the third and fourth districts and could mean trouble for Republican Rep. Scott DesJarlais.

7) Carl Paladino tried to lend Newt Gingrich a helping hand in New Hampshire, even though a Gingrich spokesman said Paladino was not officially involved in the campaign. Reading this tidbit from the New York Times, it's not difficult to see why:

Saturday Night Live presented a message from Rick Santorum (played by Andy Samberg) this weekend, poking fun at the former Senator's Google problem.

"This is about the country," the faux Santorum said. "A country that has given so much to me and to which I want to give something in return, so that maybe, one day long after I'm gone, my grandchildren can look me up on Google and find there's something, you know, different from what's there now."

And don't miss today's Must See Moment at 3:24 when Michele Bachmann blinks for the first time since she launched her presidential campaign:

Take our late-night poll after the jump...

What we at The Hotline learned this week:

-- Mitt Romney continues to stay one step ahead of his opponents. After hitting the campaign trail hard in New Hampshire for two days following his Iowa victory, Romney left his competitors alone in the Granite State on Thursday, detouring for 24 hours to South Carolina, home of the next nominating contest. Jon Huntsman pounced, claiming Romney's move showed he was taking New Hampshire for granted. But the criticism won't stick -- just as it didn't last week when Romney departed Iowa for an afternoon of campaigning in New Hampshire.

Romney realizes the risk of some negative press in New Hampshire is outweighed by the reward of having South Carolina -- and its media attention -- to himself. For that reason, look for Romney to follow up his New Hampshire victory next week with plenty of campaigning in South Carolina -- and a healthy dose of Florida, too.

-- Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., is out of the presidential race. Now what? No one knows yet, and Bachmann herself may not even be so sure. She could run for reelection to the House, but she's not going to make big strides in leadership anytime soon. Toss in the complications that could be caused by redistricting, and you could make a convincing case for Bachmann to opt against a reelection bid.

So, then what? Challenge Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar? Klobuchar is very popular, so that might not be the best option. What about a challenge in 2014 to Al Franken? That's also a possibility. If Bachmann wants to be a player at the forefront of the national conversation, the House may not be the best venue to do it from. Cable News, on the other hand, could be a natural point forom which she can continue to maintain a high profile.

-- The Bob Kerrey speculation in Nebraska is more than just a show. He's going to be visiting Nebraska next week as he zeroes in on a final decision on whether to enter the race. But therein lies the problem for Kerrey -- the word "visiting." He's spent a decade in New York, something Republicans will remind voters about over and over again if he runs. Still, Kerrey's name ID ensures he's the best -- and really, only -- candidate Democrats can run with a real shot at holding onto the seat.

CORRECTION: An earlier version of this blog post misstated the year in which ex-state Sen. Jonathan Paton lost the Republican primary in the 8th district. That year was 2010.

Freshman Arizona Republican Paul Gosar will move out of his Flagstaff home to run for re-election in a neighboring congressional district that leans more toward Republicans, he said Saturday morning.

Gosar, who defeated Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick in 2010, represents the swing First District that stretches from Pinal County southeast of Phoenix north to Flagstaff and the Four Corners. Newly redrawn boundaries would have given Democrats a nine-point voter registration advantage in that seat.

Instead of running an uphill bid for re-election, Gosar will run in the neighboring Fourth District, which runs along the border with Nevada and California following the Colorado River. The new district includes parts of Pinal and Yavapai Counties and all of Gila County, which Gosar represents under the old district lines.

Gosar told local Republicans he would buy a second home in Prescott, in Yavapai County, the Prescott News reported.

Rep. Elton Gallegly, R-Calif., announced he won't be running for a 14th term Saturday, a decision that allows Republicans to avoid a messy intraparty battle between two veteran members of Congress.

"The decision to step aside at this time did not come lightly. But in the end, Janice and I decided now was the right time to begin the next chapter in our lives. We are truly blessed to have our health, our family, and so many, many friends that we look forward to spending more time with," Gallegly said in a statement.

Gallegly drew a very unfavorable map after redistricting, with his Ventura County-based district growing more Democratic, and his Simi Valley home drawn into the seat of Rep. Buck McKeon, the House Armed Services Committee chairman. Gallegly had entertained the option of challenging McKeon, but he would have started out at a significant disadvantage. McKeon outraised Gallegly significantly ($250,000 to $83,000) in the third fundraising quarter.

Gallegly's decision paves the way for Republican state senator Tony Strickland to run for thenewly-drawn Ventura County based seat, according to California Republican analyst Jon Fleischman. Fleischman reported that Strickland is making plans to run on Flash Report, a California political news website.

An immigration hardliner in Congress, Gallegly mulled retirement in 2006 but Republican leadership persuaded him to stick around at the time, not wanting to defend a potentially-competitive seat.

New Hampshire will hold its presidential primary on Tuesday and the Sunday shows are going full speed into the Granite State this weekend. Two debates, one hosted by ABC News/Yahoo! News/WMUR-TV on Saturday and another that will air on on Meet the Press on Sunday will feature the six remaining candidates making their closing pitches headed into the primary. ABC's Diane Sawyer and George Stephanopoulos will moderate the ABC debate while NBC's David Gregory will host the Meet the Press debate.

Stephanopoulos will begin his second tour as host of This Week and will discuss the debate the night before. Former Arkansas Republican Governor Mike Huckabee and President Obama's strategist David Axelrod will join him to talk about the White House race. The 2012 debate continues with Republican National Committee chairman Reince Priebus and Democratic National Committee chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz on FNC's Fox News Sunday. On State of the Union, House Minority LeaderNancy Pelosi will analyze Democrats' 2012 prospects.

Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, will appear on Fox News Sunday while CNN's State of the Union will host former Utah Republican Gov. Jon Huntsman. State of the Union will also feature a debate between rival campaign surrogates. Former Rep. Bob Walker, R-Pa., a Newt Gingrich supporter, and former New Hampshire Republican Gov. John Sununu, a Mitt Romney supporter, will do battle on CNN.

Along with the latest 2012 developments, Face the Nation will cover another major event from the previous week. Obama announced significant changes to the size of the U.S. military. Leon Panetta makes his Sunday show debut as secretary of defense and he'll talk about the changes. Joint Chiefs chairman General Martin Dempsey and Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., will offer their input on the changes as well.

Check out the full listings after the jump.

Candidates have been rising and fading ever more quickly in the Republican presidential race. But this afternoon, a (now-former) congressional candidate seems to have demonstrated the maximum speed of a political free-fall.

GOP state Rep. Thad Viers, who was vying for the Republican nomination to run for Congress in South Carolina's 7th District, has left the race after being arrested in Myrtle Beach, S.C. Friday afternoon. Viers was charged with harassment by a woman who used to date him, according to the local police. The Myrtle Beach Sun News:

Mitt Romney may be the prohibitive favorite for the Republican presidential nomination, but National Journal's Political Insiders think Romney's team should keep an eye on Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich. According to the results of this week's Political Insiders Poll, the former Pennsylvania senator and former Speaker of the House are the toughest of the competitors Romney still must dispatch.

Updated at 3:44 p.m.

Cornerstone Schools co-founder Clark Durant's Michigan Senate campaign announced on Friday that the Republican raised $600,000 during the fourth quarter of 2011, a figure that represents a drop-off from the pace he set in the previous quarter.

The Durant campaign raised $600,000 during the months of October-December of 2011. In the previous quarter, during an abbreviated period (Durant filed with the Federal Election Commission on Aug. 18), Durant raised $750,000, a very impressive figure, especially considering that he did not loan himself any personal funds. He did not loan himself any money in the fourth quarter, either.

Durant's campaign did not disclose its year end cash on hand figure on Friday. Durant's number isn't bad, but he set a pretty high standard with his impressive third quarter figure.

"Looking ahead, our team will raise more than $600,000 in the next quarter. If the people elect him, Clark will be a constitutional catalyst for change in Washington," said Durant finance chairman Bob Lutz in a statement.

West Virginia state lawmakers are asking the Supreme Court to step in and overrule a decision a lower court panel reached last week which struck down a plan because it wasn't in line with population distribution requirements.

It's important to point out that at the very least, the move buys lawmakers more time to formulate a new map that satisfies population distribution requirements. The Charleston Daily Mail:

I noted earlier this week that the dispute isn't a partisan squabble, and the map the legislature approved only marginally alters the old map. Rather, the issue is that the Second District exceeds the mean congressional district population.

The economy added 200,000 jobs in December and the unemployment rate fell to 8.5 percent, the lowest level in nearly three years, the Labor Department reported on Friday.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg ahead of the release expected payrolls to add 155,000 jobs and the unemployment rate to rise to 8.7 percent. It takes about 90,000 new jobs every month just to keep pace with population growth.

Employers added 100,000 jobs in November, a 20,000-job downward revision from earlier reports. The surprising drop in unemployment from 9.0 to 8.6 percent in November was partly due to job seekers becoming discouraged and no longer looking for work. Last month's unemployment rate was the lowest since February, 2009.

Read more on NationalJournal.com.

Jay Leno on Thursday noted that the new director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau looks an awful lot like a character on NBC's 30 Rock.

"Of course, yes! It's Kenneth the page!" Leno exclaimed.

Don't miss today's Must See Moment at 1:36 when the Secret Service overreacts to a tender moment between President Obama and an overly friendly baby.

Take our late-night poll after the jump...

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. The Santorum scrutiny has kicked up a notch, Mack's fundraising isn't all that impressive, Stabenow leads Hoekstra in a Democratic poll, and Bruning pushes back against Democratic criticism of a grant he awarded. Here's today's rundown:

8) "Study Says Looks Matter as TV Covers Congress" -- NYT. The top five best-looking politicians on TV in 2007, according to the study: Reps. Marsha Blackburn, R-Tenn; former Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, D-S.D., Sen. Saxby Chambliss, R-Ga., Florida Senate candidate/Rep. Connie Mack, R-Fla.; and Sen. John Thune, R-S.D.

7) A Democratic poll conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research for the Michigan Democratic Party shows Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow leading former GOP Rep. Pete Hoekstra 52 percent to 42 percent. The survey was conducted from Dec. 15-19.

6) Montana Democratic Attorney General Steve Bullock continues to lead the money chase in the gubernatorial race. He brought in $549,000+ for his campaign through Dec. 31 and banked $279,667. Former Rep. Rick Hill leads on the GOP side, raising a total $462,000+ and banking $283,000+.

5) Rep. Connie Mack, R-Fla., Senate campaign reported on Thursday that it might have exceeded its goal of raising more than $500,000 during the fourth quarter of 2011, the Orlando Sentinel reports. Mack did not have a full quarter to raise money, but Florida is an expensive state, and it's not a figure that is going to blow anyone away.

Washington Democratic gubernatorial candidate Jay Inslee's meeting with Seattle's left-leaning alt-weekly The Stranger's editorial board did not leave a particularly positive impression with the paper when it comes to the issue of balancing the state budget:

This morning, Wisconsin Republican Gov. Scott Walker appeared at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank in Washington, where he defended his controversial budget repair bill and discussed the recall effort against him that is well underway. The main takeaways from his discussion, which offer clues about the way he will frame his candidacy in the coming election that will almost certainly be triggered:

Walker anticipates a recall election: "I assume they will get well over the 540,000" signatures needed to trigger an election, Walker said, adding that "In all likelihood, after the review [of the petition signatures], it will probably be an election sometime in June."

Walker's team has been gearing up for some time, raising money and airing positive ads. He's been staffing up on the campaign side as well. The signature collection pace is proceeding very quickly; so much so that if an election is not triggered, it would be a surprise. Of course, if you are Walker, it's also a good political move to pump up the chances that a recall is going to happen; on the off chance it does not, it will appear an even bigger disappointment for Democrats.

Sen. Jim DeMint's, R-S.C., Senate Conservatives Fund (SCF) has launched a $210,000 television ad on behalf of Nebraska Treasurer Don Stenberg, a Republican running for retiring Democratic Sen. Ben Nelson's seat, giving a candidate with nearly no money a sizable boost. The spot is slated to run statewide between Jan. 3 and Jan. 23.

A major Stenberg weakness: his fundraising has been an embarrassment. Stenberg had a meager $24,000 in the bank at the end of the third quarter of 2011 and DeMint's financial help is just the shot in the arm Stenberg needs if he's to have any chance at upsetting frontrunning GOP Attorney General Jon Bruning. Bruning already went on the air in December.

Stenberg's campaign sent out an email from DeMint during the last week of December touting the spot, but at the time it was unclear whether it would actually air on television/ DeMint wrote in the email that "With your help, we can run this ad statewide on cable and network television."

The email also sought to capitalize on Nelson's decision to retire as a reason to support Stenberg. Without having to worry about beating Nelson in the general election, the GOP can afford to nominate a conservative candidate like Stenberg, the argument goes.

Joseph P. Kennedy III, grandson of Robert Kennedy, will leave a Massachusetts prosecutor's office to pursue a bid for the congressional seat vacated by the retirement of Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass., sources close to Kennedy told National Journal.

Kennedy, 31, would enter the race with the unmatchable family name and tenuous ties to the district, meeting a still-nebulous field taking shape slowly following Frank's November announcement that he would not seek re-election this year.

Kennedy will form an exploratory committee around the 4th Congressional district seat, sources said.

Kennedy, whose father, Joseph P. Kennedy II, represented a different Bay State district in Congress from 1987 to 1999, had joined the political incubator Middlesex County district attorney's office earlier this year, after working as a Cape and Island prosecutor and flirting briefly with a run for the House seat in that district.

A Stanford University and Harvard Law School graduate, Kennedy served in the Peace Corps and spent two years as a Cape and Islands assistant district attorney before moving to the Middlesex branch in August.

In November, just after Frank's announcement, Kennedy made clear to the Boston Herald that he was open to running for office.

"I just haven't had the time to give it any thought, the type of careful consideration that it requires," Kennedy told the paper. "I've always thought politics is an honorable profession. It demands that you give it careful thought before you jump into it. When I get the time to do that, I'll think about it, but we're not there yet."

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. A day after Iowa, Romney gets the frontrunner treatment, as he goes up on the air in South Carolina attacking Obama's closeness with labor Meanwhile, a Santorum super PAC appears ready to close up shop while Perdue may get a credible primary challenge. Here's today's rundown:

7) After a year in which social issues brought him the most headlines, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo says economic development is the focus of year two. Cuomo's approval ratings have been awfully impressive.

6) North Carolina Democratic state Rep. Bill Faison sure knows how to keep speculation alive that he is going to run for governor. WRAL:

5) The Republican Governors Association raised an impressive $44.1 million dollars in 2011 and finished the year with $26.6 million in the bank -- a figure that is higher than the cash on hand total for any party committee in the country. The RGA doubled up the Democratic Governors Association's 2011 total.

Jon Stewart on The Daily Show Wednesday lampooned the Republican candidates' Iowa speeches.

"Even in victory, Mitt Romney's self-described ordinary guy persona feels like it came from an ordinary guy kit that he got at Hammacher Schlemmer for $14 million," Stewart joked.

After playing a clip of Rick Santorum's Iowa speech, Stewart said: "Oh my god, I just realized something terrible for Romney: Rick Santorum is actually the guy Romney is pretending to be."

Don't miss today's Must See Moment at 3:58 when Jimmy Kimmel shows a clip of Newt Gingrich trying to tap into Santorum's sweater-vest magic:

Take our late-night poll after the jump...

Hard to say how much this one actually helps the chances of Republican gubernatorial candidate Ovide Lamontagne: Jack Kimball, the tea party-backed former chairman of the state GOP, who was ousted in 2011 after a very rocky tenure, is backing him. The New Hampshire Union Leader:

On the one hand, Kimball is far from a revered figure following a 2011 that many influential Granite State Republicans would like to forget. But remember that Lamontagne is running against Kevin Smith, a conservative activist, and wants to avoid getting outflanked on his right. Kimball, whose initial support came from tea party Republicans, could boost Lamontagne's cred among primary voters on the right. Watch to see how active Kimball is in the race.

Updated at 6:23 p.m. with a quote from Walker's spokeswoman

The recall effort is over in Wisconsin. No, it's not what you think.

Recall season wouldn't be complete without a few strange developments. During the 2010 state Senate recalls in Wisconsin, one of the more bizarre developments arrived when Republicans ran fake Democrats in primaries to give their own incumbents more time to prepare.

Now, GOP Gov. Scott Walker is headed for a near-certain recall election this year, as Democratic activists are collecting petition signatures at a swift pace. But a lesser-known, separate recall effort launched on Nov. 4 -- by a Republican donor -- ended today with little fanfare. The effect of that recall -- even if not the intended purpose -- has some Democrats raising their eyebrows. The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel:

Walker spokeswoman Ciara Matthews notes: "The Walker campaign did not start fundraising as a result of the recall effort until United Wisconsin filed recall paperwork on November 15th. Also, we did not organize, collaborate or work with in any way the gentleman who filed the recall paperwork."

Writes Wisconsin Democratic Party spokesman Graeme Zielinski, in a memo to reporters:

Just another day in what promises to be a recall season filled with unexpected twists.

Updated at 12:04 p.m.

Sen. Orrin Hatch, R-Utah, is getting his first official primary challenger, as state Sen. Dan Liljenquist has announced that he will run against the longtime senator.

"I'm running for the United States Senate because it's time," Liljenquist says in a video released on Tuesday. "It's time for a new generation of leaders to step up and take on the challenges of today."

Liljenquist sat down with Hotline On Call last November. He's a 37-year-old rising star in Utah politics who has built a reputation around entitlement spending, an issue he references in his announcement video.

"It's time for us to live within our means as a country and to balance our budget. It's time to tackle the entitlement spending that threatens us all," he says.

Hatch spent 2011 bracing for a challenge from the right as he reached out to tea party activists and even recruited one to join his team as a paid staffer. Most observers expected Rep. Jason Chaffetz to challenge Hatch, but he surprisingly passed on a bid last year.

There's a new Senate self-funding pace-setter in 2012.

Pennsylvania Republican businessman Tom Smith's campaign announced on Wednesday that he loaned himself a whopping $4.25 million dollars in the 4th Quarter and finished the period with $4.4 million in the bank.

That should put him in the same ballpark as Democratic Sen. Bob Casey, who at the end of the 3rd quarter had $3.7 million in the bank. And Smith's personal money quadruples the $1 million fellow Republican Steve Welch pitched into his own effort last quarter.

"Tom Smith has again demonstrated that he has the organization, message, and resources to defeat Bob Casey in November," Smith campaign manager Jim Conroy said in a statement.

As we've stressed before, it's often unwise to read too much into candidate fundraising, especially with the projected outsize influence of outside groups this cycle. But the big contribution is worth noting because it signals that Smith is serious about devoting whatever resources necessary to make himself viable. He's already gone up with a TV ad -- the only GOP candidate in the race to do so thus far -- and loaned himself $750,000 in the 3rd quarter.

Smith's major commitment is also another sign that the Pennsylvania Republican primary is becoming a tale of self-funders, with Smith and Welch spending big and Tim Burns having the capacity to pitch in at least some personal money.

For further context, consider how Smith's personal money stacks up against some of the cycle's other big-spending self-funders. Texas Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst padded his $2.64 million third quarter haul with another $2 million of his own money, a significant sum, even in the expensive Lone Star State. Former Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert loaned himself $2.6 million through the end of the third quarter.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Romney ekes past Santorum in Iowa in the closest-ever Republican nomination contest. Meanwhile, Gingrich promises to fight on while Perry looks like he'll drop out. Elsewhere, Todd Akin enlists his son to run his campaign while Sherrod Brown won't appear with President Obama today. Here's the rundown:

8) One Democrat who will be absent from President Obama's speech in Cleveland today: Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio.

7) This morning, Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu officially announced his candidacy as a Republican in Arizona's 4th District. Babeu had previously formed an exploratory committee for a run.

6) Former Charlotte Republican Mayor Pat McCrory raised over $1.5 million during the second half of 2011 and banked more than $2 million. Pretty impressive haul for the almost certain GOP nominee against North Carolina Democratic Gov. Bev Perdue.

5) I reported on Tuesday that three top aides on Rep. Todd Akin's, R-Mo., campaign -- including his campaign manager -- had left the operation in December. Akin told the St. Louis Beacon on Tuesday that his son -- former Marine Perry Akin -- is taking over the campaign and should start by Feb. 1.

Late-night comedians on Tuesday rang in the first contest of the Republican nomination process by dissecting the candidates' performances leading up to Iowa.

What super power did Rick Santorum possess? His sweater vest, of course.

"Yes, fear the vest. In Iowa, that look is fierce," Stephen Colbert joked on The Colbert Report. "Plus, we all know throughout history, electoral power has hinged on partial-coverage torso clothing. Remember Eisenhower's cummerbund, Woodrow Wilson's rainbow suspenders and Theodore Roosevelt's tube top."

And don't miss today's Must See Moment at 2:17 when Rick Perry's wife talks about why her husband's campaign faltered:

Take our late-night poll after the jump...

Thinking about running for the Senate as a Republican in Pennsylvania? How much money do you have?

There is more than one candidate with an ability to reach into his own pocket in the race, in which no clear frontrunner has yet emerged.

Wealthy businessman Steve Welch announced on Tuesday that he loaned himself $1 million during the 4th quarter of 2011.

He's not the only candidate pouring personal money into his campaign. Tom Smith, another businessman, has already gone up on TV statewide and has self-funded to the tune of $750,000 through the end of the 3rd quarter of last year. Tim Burns, another businessman who ran in the 12th District in 2010 before launching his statewide bid last fall, demonstrated an ability to self-fund a portion of his special election bid.

When it comes to Welch flexing a little financial muscle at this point in time, there may be more to it than meets the eye, as PoliticsPA astutely observes:

If West Virginia state lawmakers don't redraw the state's three congressional districts in the next 14 days in order to more evenly distribute the state's population, a federal court will take up the task, a panel of judges ruled on Tuesday.

At issue is this: the population of the 2nd District exceeds the mean congressional district population by almost 3,200 voters. The Charleston Daily Mail:

The new map that was approved by lawmakers hardly changes the old map. The one tweak: Mason County, formerly in the 2nd District, moved down into the 3rd District.

It's important to underscore that this is not a political dispute, like what's transpiring in Texas. The task of state lawmakers the next couple of weeks will be to bring the population distribution in line with the "one person, one person vote" standard.

From the ruling:

Missouri GOP Rep. Todd Akin's Senate campaign staff is undergoing major changes, with several key aides having parted ways with Akin during the month of December. It's the latest sign of turmoil in a struggling operation that has yet to leave a major mark on the Republican race.

Akin's campaign manager, Karl Hansen, his general consultant, Chris LaCivita and his finance director, Heather Grote have all left the campaign in recent weeks, LaCivita confirms to Hotline On Call. LaCivita did not provide further explanation for why the two sides parted ways and said that he, Grote and Hansen left the campaign separately.

Hansen did not immediately return a telephone message left for him.

But Akin's campaign has broken little, if any, new ground during the past several months. If anything, he's received more attention for the negative headlines he's attracted. His team botched the rollout of praise, but a non-endorsement from House Budget Chairman Paul Ryan, R-Wis., last month. And Akin himself has been gaffe-prone. For example, over the summer, he said that "at the heart of liberalism really is a hatred for God."

Akin's fundraising hasn't been bad -- he ended the third quarter with over $1.2 million in the bank, but his burn rate has raised eyebrows. By comparison, former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman's numbers have been downright bad and we'll get a better sense of just how much money businessman John Brunner is willing to commit when his first FEC report is released.

The Missouri GOP field has been among the weakest in any of the tossup Senate races. Steelman can't raise money and Brunner's rollout was unsteady, his own company has suffered layoffs (not the image a candidate who is running as an outsider/businessman wants) and he is dodging debates.

Last month, it appeared that Sen. Richard Lugar, R-Ind., had caught a break when auto dealer Bob Thomas said he was preparing to enter the GOP Senate race, thus raising the possibility of the anti-Lugar vote being split between 2010 House candidate and state Treasurer Richard Mourdock. But it turns out he's not running after all.

"We have looked at this thing from every which way. It doesn't make sense to get in. We don't see a chance to win. I don't want to be a second candidate against an incumbent," Thomas told Howey Politics Indiana on Monday.

It's clearly a good day for Mourdock, whose fundraising woes have given him enough to worry about in the campaign without the threat of another challenger.

There doesn't appear to be anyone else looming on the horizon as a possible high impact candidate in the GOP race. And with a filing deadline that opens on Jan. 11 and closes in early February, the clock is ticking for anyone new who wants to jump in the mix and collect the 500 signatures from each congressional district that are required to get on the ballot.

But don't wait around for Thomas to endorse Mourdock (not that it would matter all that much). He took a shot the Lugar challenger on his way out of the Senate discussion, telling Howey Politics, "I cannot get excited at all about Richard Mourdock. Why elect someone to higher office when he's not doing a very good job in the one he's in right now?"

Welcome to phase two of the Texas Senate race.

The Lone Star State will host one of this year's earliest Senate primaries (April 3), and just three days into 2012, Texas Gov. Rick Perry is involving himself in the contest, as is one of former state Solicitor General Ted Cruz's most prominent national allies, the Club for Growth.

On Monday night, Perry voiced his support for frontrunning GOP Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, who joined the governor at a presidential campaign event in Iowa. The Austin American-Statesman:

An official -- or even intentional -- endorsement? Hard to say. But make no mistake, it's a clear boost for Dewhurst. Perry may be struggling in the polls nationally, but he's still a household name in Texas -- even more so in GOP circles -- where he was elected to a third term in 2010.

Meanwhile, the underdog Cruz still hasn't hit the airwaves, even as Dewhurst and former Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert each have. But the Club, which has endorsed Cruz's candidacy, is hitting Dewhurst in two new 15-second TV ads which cast the lieutenant governor as a moderate, saying he pushed for tax raises and expanding Texas's participation in federal government sponsored health care.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Iowa Republicans head to the caucuses tonight as Romney looks to score a surprise victory. Meanwhile, Snowe may get another Democratic challenger, the DGA raises $20 million in 2011 and Scott Brown emphasizes (again) his bipartisan credentials. Here's today's rundown:

7) May the vest man win? Rick Santorum's sweater vests have inspired their own Twitter feed, a website and a music video, the New York Times notes.

6) Democratic state Sen. Cynthia Dill is considering challenging Sen. Olympia Snowe, R-Maine. Two other Democrats are already in the race.

5) Sen. Scott Brown, R-Mass., tells the AP he's "the most bipartisan senator in the delegation. And if not the most, one of the most bipartisan people in the entire Senate." Brown has been speaking in interviews about his re-election and Democrat Elizabeth Warren of late, and he's trying to stake out ground firmly in the middle.

4) The Democratic Governors Association raised over $20 million in 2011; by comparison, the committee raised $12.7 million in 2007. But remember, that's still less than the massive $22.1 million haul the Republican Governors Association brought in during the first half of 2011 alone.

An aide to a first-term Republican governor distributes talking points to his staff touting the governor's year one accomplishments: Nothing out of the ordinary. But when the talker also includes criticism of other first-term GOP governors, as well as former GOP governors, well, then it's likely to ruffle a few feathers.

That's the situation facing Pennsylvania Republican Gov. Tom Corbett. The Patriot-News gets its hands on an internal memo from Corbett's deputy chief of staff, which includes comparisons of Corbett's first year to that of Republican governors Scott Walker (Wis.), John Kasich (Ohio), Nikki Haley (S.C.), Rick Snyder (Mich.), Paul LePage (Maine) and Rick Scott (Fla.).

"Pushed through controversial collective bargaining law similar to Wisconsin," reads one bullet point under Kasich. "Issue was put on ballot and was resoundingly defeated," reads another.

Happy New Year and welcome back to Hotline Sort. The center of the political universe is Iowa for the next two days, where the latest Des Moines Register poll shows Romney and Paul atop the field, with Santorum surging. Elsewhere, Fudge avoids a primary in Ohio and President Obama will step up his offensive game against Congress this year. Here's today's rundown:

9) To get a good sense of the dysfunction within Rick Perry's once frontrunning and now struggling campaign, take a look at Politico's story on the internal battle that has raged between Perry's Texas inner circle and the national consultants the campaign later brought on. "There has never been a more ineptly orchestrated, just unbelievably subpar campaign for president of the United States than this one," said a senior Perry adviser in the story. Pretty damaging stuff to be saying, even on background, just days before the Iowa Caucuses. It also seems to telegraph that even many members of Perry's team see virtually no shot for him in the state, and want to get their side of the story out there in advance of a loss.

8) What's President Obama's reelection campaign going to look like? A major component, it appears, will be going on offense even harder against an unpopular Congress. The New York Times:

7) Could there be no white Democrats from the Deep South in the House when the next Congress is sworn in? It is certainly possible, as Roll Call points out in a story that takes a closer look at criticism from some Democrats that Republicans controlling the redistricting process have used the Voting Rights Act to speed up this trend by drawing reliably Democratic African-American voters into "black-max" districts. The outspoken South Carolina Republican Democratic Party chairman Dick Harpootlian had this to say: "I think the Republicans have gone on a racial jihad to black max and pack blacks into districts. And many African-Americans agree with me."

As we flip the calendar to 2012, here at The Hotline, we've all made our lists of New Year's resolutions. But who wants to read those? Instead, we imagined what some of your favorite political figures might resolve to do in 2012. Here's a sampling of our list (Hotline subscribers can check out the complete list here):

Former Democratic National Committee Chairman Tim Kaine: "Most people would opt to separate from their conjoined twin. Me? I'm sticking with mine. Obama 2012!"

Former Sen. George Allen, R-Va.: "I vow to make access to athletic scholarships a top priority of my campaign in 2012 so that everybody has a chance to pursue his or her favorite game at the highest level."

Consumer advocate/Harvard professor Elizabeth Warren: "Never use the words 'intellectual' and 'foundation' in the same sentence again.

Sen. Scott Brown, R-Mass.: "Avoid references to Elizabeth Warren taking her clothes off."

Ohio Republican Treasurer Josh Mandel: "I'm going to try to grow facial hair."