GOP Field Against Bob Casey to Be Narrowed this Weekend
In the early stages of the Pennsylvania Senate race, the field of Republicans vying to challenge Democratic Sen. Bob Casey has been described as crowded and without any clear frontrunner. But that could change this weekend when the Pennsylvania GOP state committee meets to decide on an endorsement on Saturday. In the aftermath of the official party selection, three GOP candidates will be left as relevant factors in the race to take on Casey:
The Establishment Choice: GOP operatives in Pennsylvania, including those working for rival campaigns, expect businessman Steve Welch to win the party nod on Saturday. Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Corbett, the de facto leader of the Republican Party in the state, endorsed Welch last week, and his political team has been lobbying state committee members on Welch's behalf.
Receiving the backing of the party would automatically vault Welch into the top tier in the GOP field, but the endorsement does not guarantee him the nomination. He faces two major problems moving forward in the primary. First, having never held elected office, Welch is an unknown entity to most Pennsylvania Republicans.
More importantly, Welch switched his party registration to Democrat in 2005, donated money to former Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak in 2006 and voted for President Obama in the 2008 Democratic primary. While an endorsement from the state party would provide some cover for Welch, his opponents are still licking their chops at the chance to use Welch's past in campaign ads. Welch will also need to raise enough money -- or spend enough of his personal fortune -- to raise his profile in the state.
If the state party endorses anyone other than Welch this weekend, it would likely be Tim Burns, who mounted an unsuccessful congressional bid last year in the state's 12th congressional district. If Burns were to win the endorsement, he would likely occupy the establishment candidate space moving forward. (Burns and Welch have both indicated they will likely drop out of the race without the party endorsement). But at this point, few expect Burns to get the nod, and Corbett's team has been pressuring him to make another run in the 12th.
The Self-Funder: Tom Smith has earned himself a spot in the top tier thanks to his willingness to pour his own money into the race. The wealthy former coal executive has already put $5 million of his own cash into his bid. He has also earned positive reviews from local conservative groups.
As a result, Smith adviser Mark Harris, who managed Sen. Pat Toomey's successful Senate campaign in 2010, wrote a memo last week arguing that his candidate is the clear frontrunner in the race. Harris's argument is hard to quibble with, considering Smith's current financial advantage. He is the only candidate already running television ads in a race without any particularly well-known candidates.
That said, Smith brings his own vulnerabilities to the contest. Like Welch, he enters the race as an unfamiliar name -- but a constant stream of TV ads could fix that.
And Smith has his own history as a member of the Democratic Party. While opponents will try to challenge his conservatism as a result of this, Smith will have an easier time dodging the charge than Welch. He has a long history of donations to conservative candidates and isn't saddled with Welch's controversial vote for Obama.
The Conservative Alternative: While his chances of actually winning the nomination are a long-shot, former state Rep. Sam Rohrer will remain relevant in the primary campaign because of his popularity with grassroots conservatives. Rohrer ran against Corbett in the 2010 gubernatorial primary, finishing with 31 percent of the vote. Thanks to that statewide run, he enters the Senate race with a built-in core group of supporters.
Rohrer also has an obvious message to sell to the state's Republican voters. A favorite of many tea party groups in the state, Rohrer likely will argue that he is the only reliable conservative with a realistic shot of winning the nomination. This case becomes easier to make if his two main opponents are Welch and Smith, both of whom have past ties to the Democratic Party.
But Rohrer's upside is limited by what will likely be a severe disadvantage in fundraising. Smith and, to a lesser extent, Welch (he loaned his campaign $1 million) already have demonstrated a willingness to spend their own money on their campaigns. Rohrer, who finished last year with less than $70,000 in the bank, will struggle to keep up with his deep-pocketed rivals, making a primary victory very unlikely.
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