Hotline Sort: The Show-Me Debate
Welcome back to Hotline Sort. The campaigns of Romney and Gingrich move to re-frame the race ahead of an expected Romney win in Florida tonight while Rob Cornilles makes a plea for the "Colbert bump" ahead of an expected loss in Oregon. Meanwhile, John Brunner spends a lot of his own money on the campaign, but is absent from yet another debate. And about that Warren/Brown super PAC agreement: there are gaps that one group is already exploiting. Here's today's rundown:
8) Second-year Republican governors are striking more moderate poses in 2012, the New York Times reports.
7) As Erskine Bowles mulls a North Carolina gubernatorial bid, here's a colorful quote from the Democrat last year worth keeping in perspective: "I have empirical data that I was a terrible politician," he said, referring to his two unsuccessful runs for U.S. Senate.
6) CREDO Mobile has launched a super PAC that is targeting Republican members of the House including Reps. Sean Duffy, R-Wis., Steve King, R-Iowa, Allen West, R-Fla., Joe Walsh, R-Ill., Frank Guinta, R-N.H., and Chip Cravaack, R-Minn.
CREDO is in the if-you-can't-beat-'em-join'-em camp. It's president says "we'd shut down every Super PAC in a minute if we could" and the group supports repeal of "Citizens United." But the decision for the group to form a super PAC is illustrative of the political realities of the current environment.
5) Businessman John Brunner raised $230,000 and pitched in over $1 million of his own money for the Missouri Senate race. It's a sign that he's serious about running and his money will make him a threat. His high initial burn rate is worth flagging (he is the only Republican who has already gone up on TV, so that explains some of the money spent): he finished the quarter with just $209,000 in the bank.
4) Meanwhile, Rep. Todd Akin and former Treasurer Sarah Steelman debated on Monday. Brunner, once again, did not participate, and Steelman criticized him for his absence.
3) Here's an example of why the Elizabeth Warren/Scott Brown agreement to curb the influence of outside groups on the air in the Massachusetts Senate race is isn't going to stop all groups from advertising: A pro-Warren group that said it would abide by the agreement is taking advantage of loopholes in the document.
2) Ballots are due in the all-mail special election in Oregon's 1st District and little is in doubt today: Democrat Suzanne Bonamici is expected to keep the seat in Democratic hands and defeat Republican Rob Cornilles.
So far, 36 percent of ballots have been returned, and the news is good for Bonamici. The Oregonian:
Clatsop County, the smallest county in the district, could not provide any breakdown of returns by parties. But in the other four counties -- which account for 94 percent of the ballots returned -- Democrats have returned more than 67,000 ballots, compared to just over 50,000 for Republicans and about 25,000 for non-affiliated and minor-party voters.
All told, just over 47 percent of the ballots returned have been from Democrats.
Ballots are due by 8 p.m. PT. Stay tuned to Hotline On Call for results. Until then, check out Cornilles's effort to get the Colbert bump.
1) Mitt Romney is a significant favorite to win in Florida today over Newt Gingrich. But what next? In advance of the final results, the campaigns are already spinning the next stage of the race. Gingrich's camp is trying to assuage donors by pointing to proportional delegate allocation in the upcoming races and the Super Tuesday states of Georgia, Tennessee and Oklahoma, where Team Gingrich thinks he will do well.
Romney's aides believe the ex-governor could face his last real threat in Florida. His financial and organizational muscle will be hard for Gingrich to keep pace with following an expected victory tonight.
The Wall Street Journal has the full rundown here.
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