OR 01: GOP Poll Has It Close On The Coast
Businessman Rob Cornilles, the Republican running to replace disgraced ex-Rep. David Wu, D-Ore., is just four points behind the Democratic front-runner, according to a survey taken for his campaign.
Former Democratic state Sen. Suzanne Bonamici has a 46 percent to 42 percent lead over Cornilles, according to the survey conducted by Moore Information, a Portland-based Republican pollster.
The survey, conducted Jan. 11-12 of 300 likely voters, had a margin of error of plus or minus 6 percent. Bonamici was underperforming among a sample that was nearly half Democratic; 48 percent of respondents identified themselves as Democrats, while just 35 percent said they were Republicans.
But Democrats still have a big advantage in Oregon's First District, which stretches from Portland through Beaverton, Washington County, the northern Willamette Valley and out to the Pacific Ocean. Oregon conducts its elections by mail, meaning turnout is likely to be significantly higher than it would be if voters had to head to a polling place. Ballots have already hit mailboxes, and residents have until Jan. 31 to cast their votes.
The district is a diverse mix of rising and falling industries. Nike, Columbia Sportswear and Intel have major facilities in the near-Portland suburbs, while the logging industry along the coastal mountain range has been sagging in recent years. The area is still a Democratic stronghold; President Obama won 61 percent of the vote there in 2008, and no Republican has held the seat since Wendell Wyatt retired in 1974.
But that's not to say Democrats aren't at least a little bit worried about saving Wu's seat after he resigned amid allegations of inappropriate behavior last year. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has spent more than $387,000 on advertisements targeting Cornilles as a Tea Party conservative, and the House Majority PAC, run by former DCCC operatives, has reserved air time in the race's last two weeks.
Republicans have been less bullish about the district, given the area's Democratic lean. The National Republican Congressional Committee hasn't spent any money on independent expenditures, according to reports filed with the Federal Election Commission, though House Speaker John Boehner did say on Sunday he had cut Cornilles a $5,000 check.
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