February 2012

Reacting to Sen. Olympia Snowe's, R-Maine, decision not to seek reelection, Sen. Orrin Hatch, R-Utah, said his colleague "will be missed" in the Senate. But Snowe's retirement also means Hatch will be missing one of the arguments he's been making on the campaign trail for his own reelection bid. The Salt Lake Tribune:

Sen. Scott Brown, R-Mass., leads Democratic challenger Elizabeth Warren by 10 points in a private Massachusetts Senate race poll.

The poll, conducted by Opinion Dynamics for Boston-based consulting firm Mass Insight Global Partnerships, shows Brown winning 52 percent to Warren's 42 percent, the second poll in two weeks giving Brown a wide lead. A Suffolk University poll released Feb. 16 put Brown up 9 points, 49 percent to 40 percent, departing from earlier surveys that portrayed a narrow lead for Warren.

A Mass Insight poll in October showed Brown with a five-point edge over Warren, 44 to 39.

The new poll does not reflect the weeks of controversy around Brown's co-sponsorship of legislation permitting employers to restrict access to contraception insurance coverage on religious grounds. Brown has sparred with former Rhode Island Democratic Rep. Patrick Kennedy, who challenged the senator's assertion that the policy echoed the late Sen. Edward Kennedy's, whom Brown succeeded in a 2010 upset election.

Warren, the consumer advocate and Harvard Law School professor whom President Obama passed over to lead the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau she helped design, has seized on the issue, framing it as a threat to women's health care.

House Democrats want to take back the majority in 2012. They also want President Obama reelected. But history shows the two may not be compatible.

In every presidential election year since 1972 when the incumbent was reelected to a second term in the White House, the party balance of the House did not shift in a major way. And in none of those years did the election produce a swing of 25 seats, which is what Democrats need this year to retake the majority.

In 2004, when George W. Bush was reelected, the Republican party added three seats to its majority. In 1996, when Bill Clinton won a second term, the new Republican majority lost just four seats.

Even if House Democrats are able to replicate the gains that House Republicans made in 1984 as the minority party, when Ronald Reagan won a decisive national victory, they would only net 16 seats, not enough to retake control.

In 1972, when Richard Nixon was awarded another term, the Democratic majority was reduced by 13.

"One (reason) is that when voters reelect a president, they tend to reelect incumbents, because when you reelect a president, you are kind of happy," said former National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Tom Davis.

But the unprecedented succession of wave elections in 2006, 2008, and 2010 have put the current cycle in uncharted political terrain. None of the above years were preceded by the to-and-fro tumult we've seen in the last three elections.

Former Democratic Sen. Bob Kerrey officially announced on Wednesday that he will run for retiring Sen. Ben Nelson's, D-Neb., seat, giving Democrats a second life in a race that had been written off earlier this month when Kerrey initially declined to run.

"Doing things the conventional way has never been my strong suit," Kerrey said in a statement on Wednesday. "This afternoon, I will file to become a candidate for the United States Senate in Nebraska. I came to realize that my previous decision was the easy one, not the right one. My commitment to serve Nebraska and America, and to be part of the debate about the challenges we face was too strong to dismiss. My family supports this decision 100%. I look forward to seeing you in the coming weeks. We have a lot of work to do."

That's a complete about face from a Feb. 7 statement in which Kerrey said "in the end I choose to remain a private citizen."

Maine Sen. Olympia Snowe's retirement announcement leaves her party's leadership with the unenviable task of scrambling to find a candidate for a race they weren't even thinking about just 24 hours ago.

Surprising? Yes. Unprecedented? No.

Two years ago this month, another moderate who derided the Senate's partisanship, Democrat Evan Bayh of Indiana, opted to step aside at the eleventh hour as well, infuriating national Democrats who were caught off-guard by his announcement.

Bayh's seat fell into Republican hands in the wave election of 2010, and Democrats vowed never to be caught off guard that way again this cycle.

Republicans were similarly caught flat-footed by Snowe on Tuesday. A senior Republican source said she did not inform Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell or National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman John Cornyn until Tuesday afternoon -- just hours before she announced her decision publicly.

The timing of Snowe's decision, like Bayh's in 2010, leaves her party racing against the clock to find a replacement (the filing deadline is March 15) in a cycle when control of the Senate is up for grabs.

Sen. Olympia Snowe, R-Maine, decided to retire from the Senate because of the partisan rancor that had disrupted the legislative process, she said in a television interview Wednesday.

Snowe made her decision to quit over recess, when she hit a milestone by turning 65 years old. She said she gained focus at that time and was no longer prepared to commit another six years to the Senate.

"I made the decision not to run for re-election of the Senate and to pursue other opportunities outside the Senate that perhaps I can give voice to the frustrations that you know, exist with the political system here in Washington, where it's dysfunctional, and the political paralysis has over taken the environment to the damaging of the good of the country," she said on MSNBC's Andrea Mitchell Reports.

Updated at 3:38 p.m.

Former Wisconsin Republican Gov. Tommy Thompson is launching his first TV ad in the state's Senate race, a 30-second spot that casts him as a job creator who will take a stand against President Obama's health care law, which is a vulnerability for him in the campaign.

"I know we can restore America with bold ideas and new solutions," Thompson says in the ad. "We did it here in Wisconsin. We created jobs, ended welfare, cut taxes, and saved taxpayers billions. But America is in trouble, and I can't sit by any longer. I'll repeal Obamacare and stop Washington from busting the budget."

Thompson critics have called him out for supporting an early version of Democrats' health care overhaul that passed the Senate Finance Committee in 2009.

Thompson's ad represents a new level of engagement in the race. His campaign has slowly begun to take shape, and despite taking hits from the Club for Growth and opponents, his standing isn't all that bad.

A source familiar with the buy size relayed that it is a Fox News buy in Milwaukee for 8 days beginning on Wednesday for just over $15,000.

A Marquette Law School poll conducted Feb. 16-19 showed him leading Democratic Rep. Tammy Baldwin 48-42 percent. His 44 percent favorability rating was higher than any of the other Republican candidates in the survey (but so was his 34 percent unfavorable rating). A major reason for that is Thompson is the better-known candidate in the field right now, owing to the 14 years he served as governor.

Former Hawaii Gov. Linda Lingle released a statement Wednesday making an argument you won't hear from many GOP Senate candidates this cycle: Elect me, and I'll be the next Olympia Snowe!

Lingle, who is running for retiring Sen. Daniel Akaka's (D) seat, heaped praise on Snowe and indicated that, like Snowe, she would seek compromise with Democrats in the Senate.

"The American people deserve elected leaders, like Olympia Snowe, who are dedicated to finding a common purpose to build a stronger future for our country," Lingle said in the release. "If elected to the U.S. Senate, I will be committed to finding common ground with my colleagues on both sides of the aisle and, most importantly, will always put the people of Hawaii first in everything I do."

While Lingle's promise to serve as a moderate voice is rare among Republicans running for Congress, it makes sense given her specific state. Seeking to become the first Republican elected to the Senate from Hawaii since 1970, Lingle needs to appeal to independents and moderate Democrats, while making the argument that Rep. Mazie Hirono, the likely Democratic nominee, is to the left of the mainstream, even in Hawaii.

With a March 1 filing deadline looming, former Democratic Bob Kerrey has just two days left to officially file for the Senate race. He moved closer to a run on Wednesday morning by registering to vote in the state.

Douglas County Election Commissioner Dave Phipps confirmed to Hotline On Call that Kerrey, who has spent the last decade living in New York, has registered to vote in the Cornhusker State from an address in Omaha.

A White Pages search of the address the commissioner provided yields a listing for Jessie Rasmussen, who is Kerrey's sister.

(h/t to Omaha World-Herald reporter Robynn Tysver, who first flagged this on Twitter).

Rep. David Dreier, R-Calif., the chairman of the House Rules Committee, on Wednesday announced on the House floor that he is not running for reelection.

The departure represents more bad news for California. It's the seventh House retirement from the delegation this election cycle leaving the Golden State with much less seniority to fight for a shrinking pie of discretionary spending.

NationalJournal.com has the full story here.

Dreier is serving his 16th term and is chairman of the House Rules Committee. His departure further highlights the major trend in California this year: The state's independent redistricting commission is bleeding away its congressional seniority, especially among Republicans. California's four Republican retirees - Dreier, Elton Gallegly, Wally Herger, and Jerry Lewis - all had between 13 and 17 terms of service. Lewis was a senior member of the Appropriations Committee.

Dreier's San Dimas hometown was drawn into the heavily Democratic 32nd District, and surrounding territory was quickly occupied by other Republican incumbents scrambling for safer ground after the legislature's old, gerrymandered districts were blown up.

To update Yeats, the center is not holding.

Sen. Olympia Snowe's, R-Maine, decision not to seek another term continues a mass exodus of those who occupy the middle ground on Capitol Hill. Once the 113th Congress convenes next January, the ranks of those who make their living through compromise will be slashed even farther.

The center of the Senate will shift markedly after this year. Snowe held the title of second-most liberal Republican in National Journal's annual vote ratings. Sen. Ben Nelson, D-Neb., the most conservative Democrat in the upper chamber, and Sen. Joe Lieberman, I-Conn., the third-most conservative senator to caucus with Democrats, are also retiring.

In announcing their departures, all three cited the increasing partisan rancor in the traditionally staid upper chamber. "I do find it frustrating ... that an atmosphere of polarization and 'my way or the highway' ideologies has become pervasive in campaigns and in our governing institutions," Snowe said in a statement Tuesday.

Politics threatens those who are left. Sens. Claire McCaskill, the fourth-most conservative Democrat, and Scott Brown, the third-most liberal Republican, both face tough re-election bids.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Romney wins a tight race in Michigan but blows away the field in Arizona, Snowe sets off a race against time in Maine, President Obama takes on his critics over the auto bailout and Scott Walker teams up with an unlikely ally. Here's today's rundown:

7) The Chicago Tribune has a picture of Rahm Emanuel rocking a 'fro 1977. Enough said.

6) Wisconsin GOP Gov. Scott Walker and Minnesota Democratic Gov. Mark Dayton are joining forces in the pages of Roll Call with an op-ed lobbying the House to act so that a bridge project can happen.

5) Mike Huckabee will host his third presidential forum on Saturday, and all but Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, have committed to attending.

4) A preview of things to come: President Obama took on Mitt Romney directly on Tuesday, auto bailout, calling the former governor's criticism of the bailout "a load of you-know-what."

Mitt Romney won the Michigan Republican primary, despite the fact that "Romney kept putting his foot in the mouth he hired so his own mouth doesn't get feet in it," Jon Stewart joked on Tuesday.

And don't miss today's Must See Moment at 2:26 when David Letterman presents the new star of the upcoming Dr. Seuss movie, The Lorax:

A second poll in as many days shows Sen. Robert Menendez, D-N.J., with a solid lead over Republican state Sen. Joe Kyrillos, with the new survey, from Quinnipiac University, showing Menendez at his highest-ever approval rating and approaching the critical 50-percent threshold among registered voters.

Menendez leads Kyrillos, 49 percent to 34 percent, according to the Quinnipiac poll, which was released early Wednesday. Fourteen percent of voters are undecided. Among the crucial bloc of independent voters, Menendez leads, 44 percent to 33 percent.

A Rutgers-Eagleton poll released Tuesday showed Menendez doubling up Kyrillos, 44 percent to 22 percent. In that survey, 26 percent of voters were undecided.

The Kyrillos camp touted the results of the Rutgers-Eagleton poll Tuesday, calling Menendez's 44-percent plurality in that poll "Jon Corzine territory," a reference to the Garden State's former Democratic governor, who struggled to budge his poll numbers from the mid-40s before losing to Republican Gov. Chris Christie, a Kyrillos ally.

Maine Sen. Olympia Snowe's surprise decision to retire at the end of her term sent shockwaves to the 2012 election landscape, putting Democrats in fighting position to hang onto their slim majority.

It's a stark difference from the beginning of the election cycle, when Democrats were facing long odds to keep control of the upper chamber. Fresh off suffering a landslide midterm defeat, Democrats found themselves defending 23 of the 33 seats up for grabs in 2012. Republicans only needed to win back four of them, and many of the races were taking place in conservative states like Montana, Missouri, North Dakota and Nebraska.

But Democrats have clawed their way back. Republicans are still well-positioned to pick up the North Dakota and Nebraska seats, but Democrats have aggressively recruited on the tough turf, regardless. The DSCC landed former state Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp, who has been running a competitive campaign against Rep. Rick Berg, R-N.D., so far. And if former Sen. Bob Kerrey opts to run in Nebraska, he could at least make it a race worth watching.

And in two of the states Republicans are defending -- Massachusetts and Nevada - Democrats are competitive. Democrats recruited Elizabeth Warren to run against Sen. Scott Brown, R-Mass. She has been an imposing candidate, posting eye-popping fundraising numbers, ginning up the liberal base and polling neck-and-neck against the freshman senator in a state Obama is expected to win. In Nevada, Democratic Rep. Shelley Berkley is keeping pace with Republican Sen. Dean Heller.

Meanwhile, Republicans are facing tough challenges in battleground states against Sen. Bill Nelson, D-Fla., and Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio -- states GOP Senate candidates comfortably won in 2010. Brown and Nelson are still anticipating competitive races, but their standing has stabilized in recent months, according to statewide polls.

The species known as the moderate Republican seemed to move one step closer to extinction on Tuesday when Sen. Olympia Snowe, R-Maine, announced that she will not run for reelection this year.

"After an extraordinary amount of reflection and consideration, I am announcing today that I will not be a candidate for reelection to the United States Senate," Snowe said in the statement on the Maine Republican Party's Facebook page.

Snowe's surprise announcement that she will not seek a fourth term in the U.S. Senate has dramatic resonance. As one of the last of the truly moderate Republicans, Snowe is part of a breed that's disappearing from Congress. Her vacating a seat in a state that has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 1992 greatly strengthens the Democrats chances of holding on to the Senate and give strategists at the Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee reason to cry in their beers.

Read more on NationalJournal.com.

For months, public polls in the Virginia Senate race have shown a neck-and-neck race between former Democratic National Committee Chairman Tim Kaine and former Republican Sen. George Allen, so a new Roanoke College poll released on Tuesday showing Allen leading by eight points is either a break in the dam, or an outlier.

Allen leads Kaine among all adults in the poll, 45 percent to 37 percent. Nineteen percent of Virginians are undecided. Among only those poll respondents who are registered to vote, Allen leads Kaine by the same margin, 46 percent to 38 percent, with 16 percent undecided.

Other public surveys conducted this year have shown a tied race: Allen led by two in a Christopher Newport University poll conducted for the Richmond Times-Dispatch earlier this month, an early-Feburary Quinnipiac University poll put Kaine up by one point, and a Mason-Dixon Polling & Research poll shared with Hotline On Call in January showed the two candidates running dead-even.

Harry Wilson, director of the Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research, defended the results of the poll, pointing out that, though the Senate race showed a net-five-point gain for the Republican since September, when Allen led Kaine by three percentage points, President Obama's poll numbers had improved over that time, and GOP Gov. Bob McDonnell saw a slight decline in his approval rating. Obama also runs stronger against former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney -- whom he trails by a single point -- and Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, than he did in September.

It's not often that national Republicans salivate over their prospects in a solidly-Democratic state where a GOP candidate hasn't been elected governor in 32 years and President Obama is expected to cruise to victory.

But that's what's happening in Washington state, where GOP Attorney General Rob McKenna, who is off to a strong start to his campaign, is trying to do what many have tried and failed. The gubernatorial candidate faces several significant hurdles, not the least of which is the barrage of Democratic attacks he'll face, which so far, have been centered on portraying him as a partisan who is rightward of the state's electorate.

"I was hired by a ten percent margin. I was rehired in 2008 by 19 points, with Obama on the ballot. I think people are rewarding me for doing a good job as AG," McKenna said in an interview with Hotline On Call on Monday.

Democrats hope to paint him as too conservative for the Evergreen State. The state Democratic Party took out a newspaper ad last year tying McKenna to Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker. They've attacked him for attaching himself to a lawsuit over Obama's health care law that has become an effort that threatens the entire measure. And they've shown no signs of backing down.

But given the language McKenna uses, and the profile he has crafted in the state as a moderate, their task is shaping up to be a difficult one.

Updated, 2:43 p.m.

More than a dozen Senate Democrats have called former Sen. Bob Kerrey, D-Neb., to urge him to enter the race to replace retiring Democratic Sen. Ben Nelson, Sen. Tom Carper, D-Del., said Tuesday.

The encouragement appeared to come at the behest of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev. It indicates that while Kerrey, according to Democratic sources, has told Reid he is strongly considering jumping into the race ahead of a pending filing deadline, he remains undecided.

The Omaha World-Herald on Tuesday quoted Paul Johnson, a consultant for Kerrey's two successful Senate bids, who said Kerrey had not made up a his mind but is "seriously" considering a run.

Kerrey has a reputation for agonizing over whether to enter races. He took long looks at a second presidential bid in 2000 and a Senate bid in 2008 before declining to run.

Republicans would remain favored to pick up the Nebraska seat even if Kerrey, who has long lived in New York City, enters the race. But Democrats believe the former senator would greatly improve their chances there, at least force the GOP to use more resources in the state and improve odds Democrats retain control of the Senate.

Carper said he "tried to use reverse psychology" on Kerrey in a conversation Tuesday morning, telling him to stay at home with his family because the country "doesn't need you"

Would resigning from Congress to focus full time on his gubernatorial race help Rep. Jay Inslee, D-Wash? It could. He'd have more time to campaign in the state that lies over 2,000 miles from the nation's capital. In 2010, two members of Congress quit to run for governor, and it worked out for both. The Seattle Times:

Of course, leaving office early would also open Inslee up to criticism.

A pair of Democratic senators in the northeast lead their largely unknown Republican challengers comfortably, according to new polling data released on Tuesday.

In New Jersey, Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez leads Republican state Sen. Joe Kyrillos 44-22 percent in a new Rutgers-Eagleton survey.

Kyrillos is a close friend of Republican Gov. Chris Christie. Christie endorsed Kyrillos's candidacy earlier this month.

But his friendship with the high-profile governor doesn't mean many people know who Kyrillos is: 80 percent of voters surveyed either have no opinion or are unsure about him.

Thirty-seven percent said they hold a favorable impression of Menendez while 24 percent said they hold an unfavorable impression.

"Menendez's favorability numbers crept up slightly early last year, but for an incumbent, he has a very low profile," said poll director David Redlawsk.

After being redistricted out of his suburban St. Louis seat, Rep. Russ Carnahan, D-Mo., has decided to run against Democratic Rep. William Lacy Clay, making Clay the third member of the Congressional Black Caucus this cycle facing off against another member of Congress. The AP:

As House Race Hotline (subscriber) noted earlier this month, while Carnahan is following a plurality of his constituents to the 1st District, the majority-minority makeup of the 1st is advantageous for Clay.

Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Steve Israel said at a briefing with reporters on Tuesday morning that he hasn't spoken to Carnahan yet about his decision.

"Russ called me yesterday, I haven't been able to get back to him," said Israel.

For months, Carnahan mulled his options in the wake of redistricting, which included running for lieutenant governor or in the more GOP-friendly 2nd District, against likely GOP nominee Ann Wagner, a move national Democrats would have preferred to see.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Romney and Santorum square off in Michigan while Sheldon Adelson pours in more money for Gingrich. Meanwhile, Schock backs Kinzinger over Manzullo, Alabama wrestles with an ultrasound bill and one Democrat is steamed by Bob Kerrey's apparent about-face in Nebraska. Here's today's rundown:

7) Rep. Aaron Schock, R-Ill., is backing freshman GOP Rep. Adam Kinzinger over veteran Republican Rep. Bob Manzullo in Illinois' new 16th District primary. Illinois voters got to the polls on March 20.

6) Sen. Bob Menendez, D-N.J., leads state Republican state Sen. Joe Kyrillos 44-22 percent in a new Rutgers-Eagleton poll of registered Garden State voters conducted from Feb. 9-11. Kyrillos is the GOP frontrunner and was recently endorsed by Gov. Chris Christie.

5) How's this for a little irony: Mormons were no friend of the Republican Party in its early days, even as 75 percent of Mormons tilt toward the GOP. The Salt Lake Tribune:

4) Virginia is not the only state wrestling with controversial abortion-related legislation right now. In Alabama, a Republican state senator said he plans to rewrite an abortion bill to specify that it is the woman's choice whether she wants an internal of external ultrasound before getting an abortion. The prior version of the bill would not let the woman choose. The Birmingham News has the full story here.

Updated at 2:15 p.m.

National Journal's yearly vote ratings always inspire a fair amount of discussion and pushback. This year was no different, and the collection of brewing member-versus-member primaries added an extra dash of intrigue. One of those primaries is in Arizona's 6th District, where freshman GOP Reps. Ben Quayle and David Schweikert are locked in fierce competition to be seen as the strongest conservative in a strongly conservative district.

Quayle tied for first in NJ's conservative ratings, while Schweikert came in at 66th -- still at the rightward edge of the Republican conference, but without the vaunted title "most conservative," one that's likely to show up in Quayle's campaign. Schweikert, a tea party favorite, argues that he's the true conservative in the race. A look at two votes that accounted for most of the men's separation in NJ's rankings cuts to the core of an argument over the very meaning of "conservative."

On The Daily Show Monday, Jon Stewart mocked Rick Santorum's comment that President Obama is a snob for calling on Americans to go to college.

"Oooh, look who's educating his children!" Stewart quipped. "I guess someone's too good for not knowing things."

And don't miss today's Must See Moment at :59 (and 3:10) when Jimmy Fallon and Brian Williams slow jam Super PAC news:

History has shown that the outcome of governor's races do not portend very much about how a presidential candidate of either party will do in a given state. There's s conspicuously weaker connection between state contests and the White House race than there is between congressional races and the presidential election in the same state.

But with Republicans playing a lot of offense in gubernatorial races this year, contesting several states where the president is likely to lose in November, the head of the Republican Governors Association is advising Republican candidates to tie their Democratic opponents to the White House.

"What people want is, give me the uplifting vision for what you can do for my state," said RGA Chairman Bob McDonnell in a briefing with reporters on Monday afternoon. "But also, because there is a president at the top of the ticket and he will be on the ballot in every state is, if he's got policies that are bad for your state like card check and cap and trade were for my state, I can virtually be certain that our candidates running for governor in those state are going to be talking about those federal issues, tying their Democratic opponent to those issues."

Republicans are contesting Democratic-held seats in three states -- New Hampshire, Missouri, Montana where President Obama's approval rating among adults in 2011 was under 40 percent, according to aggregate Gallup Daily tracking data. They are also looking to make pickups in two states -- West Virginia and Indiana -- where Obama won't be competing this year.

Updated at 6:27 p.m.

In a surprising reversal, former Sen. Bob Kerrey, D-Neb., has decided to run for the Nebraska Senate seat opened by Sen. Ben Nelson's decision not to seek reelection, a Democratic source with knowledge of his decision said.

The news was first reported by The Fix.

A Democratic source said Kerrey is expected to make an announcement soon on his plans.

Kerrey's decision -- an about face from an announcement earlier this month that he would not run -- improves Democrats' chances of hanging onto the seat, and control of the upper chamber, where Republicans need to pick up four seats to take over in November.

Republicans had already begun preparing for a Kerrey candidacy when his name surfaced as a possibility after Nelson announced his retirement late last year. Count on them hitting him over the time he has spent living New York City during that past decade and comments he has made about cap and trade and health care that they will seek to portray as out of step with Nebraska.

Updated at 6:24 p.m.

The Wisconsin Democratic Party is pulling no punches against Republican Gov. Scott Walker right out of the gate with its first TV ad, likening him to Richard Nixon in a rough spot debuting on Monday.

The 30-second spot is a rapid-fire splicing of reporters discussing the John Doe investigation into former and current Walker aides and reporters from decades ago discussing the Watergate scndal that led to Nixon's resignation.

The party would not comment on the size of the ad buy, but a source tracking the buy said it was for cable.

During 2011's state Senate recalls, Democrats introduced arguments into the campaign that were broader than those just involving Walker's controversial budget repair bill that curbed collective barganing for public employees. This ad signals they are ready to put more paid advertising toward more of the same in the recall campaign against Walker.

The ad comes the same day that the Walker campaign announced that it would not challenge any of the recall signatures that were submitted to the state, a decision Democrats immediately seized on.

"The Democrat Party and the big-government union bosses funding them are using lies and distortions in their negative attack ad to discredit Governor Walker in an attempt to take Wisconsin back to the failed days of billion-dollar budget deficits, double-digit tax increases, and record job loss," said Walker spokesman Tom Evenson.

While introducing Christian Bale during the Academy Awards on Sunday, host Billy Crystal took a shot at the Republican presidential field.

"A dark knight, an American psycho, a charismatic crack addict," Crystal said. "You'll get to choose one on Super Tuesday."

Don't miss today's Must See Moment at 1:13 when Jay Leno rates Mitt Romney on a regular-guy to rich-guy scale:

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Wisconsin Democrats are taking to the airwaves against Scott Walker, Michael Grimm is hit with another tough headline, Romney shows some confidence heading into Tuesday and Eliot Spitzer is back on the fundraising circuit. Here's today's rundown:

7) Police were called to break up a protest at the opening of Rep. Ann Marie Buerkle's, R-N.Y., campaign HQ over the weekend.

North Dakota Democrat Tom Potter is ending his Senate bid against former state Democratic Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp.

6) Here's something Republicans will have fun with: Eliot Spitzer is hosting a fundraiser for Rep. Jay Inslee, D-Wash., who is running for governor.

5) Former Rep. Patrick Kennedy, D-R.I., is hitting back against Sen. Scott Brown, R-Mass., who has been comparing himself to the late Sen. Ted Kennedy when it comes to his position on a proposed conscience exemption on health care. Brown says he won't take down a radio ad referencing Kennedy, even though the younger Kennedy has asked him to do so.

Keep an eye in the coming days on how robust the push back from Democrats is against Brown's Kennedy claim. This could be just the beginning.

On the sidelines of the National Governors Association Winter Meeting in Washington that wraps up on Monday, Republicans are skeptical that the reemergence of social issues in the political landscape is net positive for the party, and it's clear they're more comfortable steering the discussion toward the economy.

"Anything that distracts the campaign from President Obama's policies and the effect of those policies is less beneficial than when we are talking about [them]," said former Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour.

Even as the economy remains the primary political focus of both Democrats and Republicans, in recent weeks, social issues have reemerged in state and national politics.

The standoff between President Obama and social conservatives over a controversial contraception mandate earlier this month led to the administration amending its posture that required certain religious institutions to offer contraceptive coverage to employees, shifting the responsibility to insurance companies.

If Utah Republican Gov. Gary Herbert isn't reelected this year, it would be akin to a college football team firing a national championship-winning coach, according to the governor's own assessment.

"You've won the national championship, why would you want to change the coach," Herbert said in an interview on Sunday with Hotline On Call on the sidelines of the National Governors Association Winter Meeting in Washington.

Herbert's main campaign argument is that the Beehive State's economy has improved under his watch. His sports analogy is a reference to the state's economic health and Forbes Magazine naming Utah the best state for business two years in a row.

"My argument could be, we're doing very well economically, we're growing the economy at three times the national average, we're creating jobs at a after rate than anywhere in America except North Dakota, which is going through a significant oil boom," said Herbert, who also pointed to the state's declining unemployment rate.

Some conservatives in the Utah would disagree with Herbert's rosy assessment of his tenure. The governor has already drawn three Republican opponents ahead of the April convention at which a candidate must top the 60 percent threshold to avoid a top-two primary.

David Kirkham, the leading tea party figure in Utah and an outspoken critic of Herbert, is challenging the governor, as are Morgan Philpot, a former state representative and congressional candidate, and state Rep. Ken Sumsion.

Sumsion and Philpot have already advocated taking a strong stand against federal regulations. And while Herbert wants to points to his economic record, Kirkham has highlighted a guest worker measure signed by Herbert as a point of contention.

"It's pretty hard to criticize me on my economic record," responded Herbert, when asked about his critics and opponents. "I think some of the criticism has to do with style. 'We don't like his style. We wished he was a little more bombastic or whatever.'"

Herbert, who was former Gov. Jon Huntsman's lieutenant governor, took office in 2009 after Huntsman was tapped by President Obama to become ambassador to China.

Virginia is the only state in the nation that limits its governor to a single four-year term. Gov. Bob McDonnell is starting to think that's not enough time.

In an interview on Sunday morning at the National Governors Association meeting here in Washington, McDonnell said he is beginning to support the idea of lengthening a governor's tenure in order to strike a new balance.

"The problem is, there's a lack of continuity. After two years in office, I've already got people in the press worried about the next chase, the next election. And I'm saying, 'Hey, I'm not dead, I'm not gone,'" McDonnell said. "It also cedes more power to the state establishment, if you will, as opposed to the legislature or the executive branch. So I honestly thing the right formula would be to maybe slightly tweak the balance of powers between the legislative and executive branch and then allow a two-term governor."

"I think the real problem is that half the legislature wants to be governor and they don't want their chances cut in half," he added with a laugh.

And McDonnell knows something about being forced off the stage: The battle to replace him is already underway, even though the general election is 20 months away. Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli said late last year he will run for governor, an announcement that forced Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling to move up his own announcement and setting the stage for a Republican primary already filled with animosity. McDonnell, who as attorney general leapfrogged Bolling to claim the governor's mansion in 2009, supports his lieutenant this year, though he has warned both camps to focus on the more pressing election this November, rather than next year's primary.

"I've told them all I don't want to hear a word about it," McDonnell said. "I don't want any political energy spent on 2013 until we win this year."

But McDonnell, who heads the Republican Governors Association and is atop the list of potential vice presidential nominees should Mitt Romney lock down the GOP nomination, has made the most of his single term. He's not ready to discuss his possible legacy yet ("I really don't worry about that. My staff does and reporters do," he said), but he takes credit for cutting Virginia's deficit, balancing the budget and working to end teacher tenure.

The slow but steady progress of the nation's economy has bolstered Democrats' standing, Democratic Governors Association Chairman Martin O'Malley says.

"We're in a much better place than we were in October and I think a number of things happened since that time but none of them more important than the fact that we've now gone 23 months in a row of positive job creation," O'Malley, the governor of Maryland said in an interview on Saturday.

Following the Virgina legislature's decision to table a so-called "personhood" measure for the year, the next leg of the battle social conservatives are waging will likely take place in Oklahoma, where the state's Republican governor is treading carefully in advance of final legislation.

"It's early in the legislative session," said Oklahoma Republican Gov. Mary Fallin on Saturday at the National Governors Association meeting in Washington. "There are several bills that deal with when does the start of life begin, and we'll debate those issues in the legislative session. It's still too early for me to make a judgment call on whether I'll sign it because it, because it will change between now and the end of session, but in general, I am a pro-life governor."

The Oklahoma state Senate passed a "personhood" measure earlier this month, moving it a step closer to becoming law in the state. It must still pass the state House and be approved by the governor.

"Personhood" measures are anti-abortion proposals which define birth as beginning at the time of conception. No such measure has been passed in any state yet, but it hasn't been for a lack of effort from proponents. In the overwhelmingly conservative state of Mississippi, voters rejected a "personhood" measure at the polls in 2011. Voters in Colorado have twice rejected "personhood" amendments.

All of this suggests that the issue isn't a political winner for Republicans, even in very red states likes Mississippi. But keep an eye on Oklahoma, also a deeply conservative state.

-- Next Tuesday's Michigan Republican presidential primary has brought the rescue of the U.S. auto industry by the Bush and Obama administrations back to the forefront this week, and each side can point to public polling to bolster their position. A new Pew Research Center poll released Thursday showed a majority of Americans think the program was a good thing for the U.S. economy, while a Gallup poll also released Thursday had a slight majority who said they disapprove of this action.

But the polls aren't contradictory -- and they both offer important rhetorical lessons for each party. The Pew poll asked respondents if they thought "loans to General Motors and Chrysler" were good or bad for the economy, while the Gallup poll asked if respondents approved or disapproved of "the financial bailout for U.S. automakers." But in Michigan -- which Republicans hope to put in play in November -- they are more attuned to the issue: In an NBC News/Marist poll released this week, the vast majority of all voters think the program was a good idea, even with the word "bailout" in the question.

-- The White House continues to talk about its ability to contest Arizona, but polling data suggest otherwise -- and underscores the fact that immigration right now is a losing issue for President Obama and Democrats. A NBC News/Marist poll in the state showed over two times as many voters in Arizona were "more likely" to support a candidate that backed the state's hardline anti-illegal immigration law as those who would be less likely to do so. While the Hispanic growth in the state is significant, the percentage of those who are registered is relatively low - and there have been few signs of any significant uptick in political participation.

The numbers also provide a cautionary tale to the party's likely Senate nominee, Richard Carmona, who is an attractive recruit because of his Hispanic heritage, but could lose support from white voters over his opposition to SB 1070. Remember: the law was the driving force behind Gov. Jan Brewer's political success - she looked like a sure loser after ascending to the post, but ended up winning election comfortably by a 12-point margin. There was a good reason why Janet Napolitano didn't run for Senate -- her involvement in the White House's lawsuit against the state immigration law would have handicapped her campaign from the start.

-- The issue of abortion is a balancing act for the GOP in Virginia. Delegate Bob Marshall's so-called "personhood" bill was tabled by the Senate, with the help of some Republican senators, until 2013 so it can be studied more. The controversial ultrasound bill was amended after complaints about the physically invasive nature of the original bill. The political problem for Gov. Bob McDonnell and Lieutenant Gov. Bill Bolling -- both of whom play central roles in the debate on both bills -- is that any time the focus is not on the economy, the Republicans are stepping away from what propelled the GOP to victory in 2009, 2010 and 2011. As Tim Kaine proved during the last two weeks, Virginia Democrats are willing to go on offense over social issues too, changing the dynamic from the days of old.

Correction: This post incorrectly identified the type of organization the NGA is. It's a 501(c)(3) organization. Further, this post insufficiently described corporate logos on view at this weekend's NGA meeting. Those logos were not on NGA-produced signs.

The prospect of major corporations or single donors with extreme agendas writing big checks to influence an election has outraged Democrats. Privately, even many Republicans worry that recent Supreme Court decisions allowing corporations and unions to spend unlimited amounts of money on political activities could open a pandora's box for which the party is unprepared.

And yet the new reality shouldn't surprise anyone, because it's old news. This weekend in Washington, as the nation's governors meet just blocks away from the White House, the influence corporations already wield in politics is on full display.

Federal campaign finance law does not allow corporations to contribute directly to a candidate or a political party. But each state regulates campaign finance rules for non-federal candidates differently. That means the three major committees focused on governors -- the Democratic Governors Association and the Republican Governors Association -- must organize themselves under section 527 of the IRS code (The bipartisan National Governors Association is organized under section 501(c)(3) of the tax code).

Those 527 groups, the fore-runners of today's super PAC, are legally allowed to solicit and accept contributions from corporations in any amount they wish. While President Obama and good-government groups fret over new rules that allow corporate money into federal politics, Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley, head of the DGA, and Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell, who heads the RGA, are actively seeking contributions from corporations across the country.

Regardless of the outcome of the all-but-certain recall election Wisconsin Republican Gov. Scott Walker is facing this year, Democratic Governors Association Chairman Martin O'Malley says Walker can't win.

"I think in many ways, Scott Walker's already lost," O'Malley said in an interview on Saturday with Hotline On Call at the National Governors Association Winter Meeting in Washington. "He took the state into such a hard right turn, going after the rights of workers to be able to organize and to collectively bargain ... I can't imagine him having a very effective run, win or lose."

O'Malley's response raises an interesting question to ponder: If Walker wins, how do Democrats spin it? Republicans will proudly proclaim that the public has accepted Walker and his policies. And that will be a hard line to argue against. But Democrats would likely offer a response similar to what O'Malley is saying: Walker's policies have already been damaging for working class Wisconsinites.

It's all another reminder of the politically risky calculation to move toward a recall in the first place; if Democrats don't unseat Walker, they won't be in the same place they were before the whole process began.

Indiana Republican Gov. Mitch Daniels says the flap over Sen. Richard Lugar's residency won't ultimately be a major issue in his reelection bid.

"I think most folks saw it as a non-issue. And then it was resolved in his favor. I don't think it will figure in, really," Daniels told Hotline On Call on Saturday at the National Governors Association Winter Meeting.

Daniels is backing Lugar, who this week received a bit of a boost when the state attorney general's office and the Election Commission both issued opinions finding no fault with the senator's residency status.

Lugar lives in Northern Virginia and sold the home he owned in Indianapolis in 1977. However he is still registered to vote from the Indianapolis address.

But Lugar's opponents -- both Democrat and Republican -- have seized the issue and are trying to paint the incumbent as out of touch with Hoosier voters.

Daniels says he's encouraged by Lugar's navigation of the race ahead of the May 8 primary.

"I think he's doing well. I can't tell what is going to happen, but my sense is the last few innings have been strong ones for him," he said.

If term-limited Montana Democratic Gov. Brian Schweitzer is giving a 2014 Senate run some consideration, he sure isn't showing it by expressing any love for the legislative branch.

"I think by my comments, you've probably gleaned that I don't think a great deal of the workings of Congress," Schweitzer said in a brief interview on Friday after a Democratic Governors Association panel discussion on the economy.

Governors from across the country are in Washington this weekend for the National Governors Association's Winter Meeting.

"I'm a doer not a talker, and the United States Senate is for talkers," he said.

Democratic Sen. Max Baucus is up for reelection in 2014 and there is speculation that Schweitzer could challenge him. When asked if Baucus's reelection calculus affects his own plans, he responded simply, "no, not at all."

As gas prices go up, Democratic Party prospects go down. That, at least, is the general consensus of the Democratic and Republican strategists surveyed in this week's National Journal Political Insiders poll. Nearly eight-in-ten Democratic Insiders said rising gas prices would hurt their party politically, while a full 96 percent of Republican respondents said the increases would be helpful to the GOP.

The weekend before Michigan and Arizona are holding primaries, two presidential candidates and several governors are making appearances on the Sunday shows.

Former Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pa., will be live in the Meet the Press studio and he'll also be on This Week. Former Massachusetts Republican Governor Mitt Romney will be on Fox News Sunday.

Governors from across the country are in Washington this weekend for the National Governors Association Winter Meeting and the Sunday shows will feature several for a discussion of the economy and the 2012 landscape. Arizona Republican Gov. Jan Brewer and California Democratic Gov. Jerry Brown will appear on Meet the Press. New Jersey Republican Gov. Chris Christie and Maryland Democratic Gov. Martin O'Malley will be on Face the Nation. Michigan Republican Gov. Rick Snyder and Massachusetts Democratic Gov. Deval Patrick will be on This Week. Colorado Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper and Wisconsin Republican Gov. Scott Walker will be on State of the Union.

Former White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs will discuss the presidential race, the economy, and the recent fights with Congress on State of the Union. Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C. and former Shell Oil President John Hofmeister will also be on State of the Union talking about the crisis in the Middle East, the economy and 2012.

Tune in on Saturday at 3 p.m. for Fox News Channel's War Stories with Oliver North: Deadlines on the Battlefield, a special program from 2004 as a tribute to journalist Marie Colvin and other war correspondents. The one-hour program features an interview with Marie Colvin in which she recounts the violence she observed and endured saying, "war correspondents have to be able to deal with absolutely everything." Additionally, the previous special delves into the history of war reporting in interviews with Pulitzer Prize winners Eddie Adams and Nick Ut, as well as News Corporation Chairman and CEO Rupert Murdoch on his father's involvement in WWI.

Check out the complete listings after the jump.

Here's some good news for Rep. Mike Pence's, R-Ind., gubernatorial campaign. The Evansville Courier & Press:

Between Democrat John Gregg's rough month following comments he made about right-to-work that rankled labor leaders and this development, it's been a good stretch for Pence.

The Indiana Election Commission unanimously denied a challenge to Sen. Richard Lugar's, R-Ind., electoral eligibility on Friday, clearing the way for the longtime Republican's name to appear on the May 8 primary ballot.

The Commission voted 4-0 in favor of denying the challenge, was made on the grounds that Lugar's residency situation is problematic.

Lugar is registered to vote in Indiana at the address of an Indianapolis home he sold in 1977. He lives in northern Virginia. Both Treasurer Richard Mourdock and Democratic Rep. Joe Donnelly have called attention to Lugar's residency situation in the state following a report late last month calling attention to the matter.

In 1982, the state attorney general issued an opinion to Lugar indicating that members of Congress are allowed to maintain their state residency for voting purposes, even upon leaving the state. The current attorney general judged on Thursday that decades-old the opinion is still valid.

From a legal standpoint, it's been a good week for Lugar. Between the attorney's general's opinion and the commission's Friday decision, he has cover on multiple fronts.

But politically, the continued focus on Lugar's residency is more problematic. It distracts from other issues he would rather talk about and puts him on defense. And it's given more fodder to opponents who are looking to unseat him.

Even in the absence of legal recourse, opponents can still continue to try to cast Lugar as out of touch with Indiana voters, an argument they have already used regularly.

Endorsements are often over-hyped in races, but when someone pulls one back, it's worth taking notice.

Former Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, D-Ariz., is shifting her stance in the Arizona Democratic Senate primary. Kirkpatrick, who had formerly backed Don Bivens in the race, is changing her position to neutral.

"Ann has decided to be neutral in the Senate primary, but she looks forward to seeing an Arizona Democrat win this seat in the general election," Kirkpatrick spokeswoman Jennifer Johnson said in a statement on Friday.

The turnabout looks more like a recognition of the strength of former Surgeon General Richard Carmona's candidacy than anything else. Kirkpatrick endorsed Bivens before Carmona entered the race. Carmona has since outraised Bivens and has the backing of national Democrats. He was encouraged by President Obama to run for the Senate.

Kirkpatrick is making a bid to return to Congress, and is running in the 1st District, so she also has to worry about her own standing, relative to the political power structure in the state.

National Journal's 2011 vote ratings are out this morning, and there are a few interesting findings when it comes to senators facing reelection this year:

-- Sen. Scott Brown, R-Mass., is the third most liberal Republican, placing 56th overall and just behind Maine Republican Sens. Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins, who rank as a slightly more liberal.

-- Sen. Claire McCaskill, D-Mo., ranks as more conservative as than Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va. McCaskill is the 51st most conservative member of the Senate, while Manchin is two spots behind at 53.

-- Last year, Sen. Debbie Stabenow, D-Mich., finished in a ten-way tie for the title of most liberal senator. In 2011, Stabenow is number 22. That's in line with where she was in the 2009 vote rankings, when she was the 21st most liberal member of the Senate.

-- Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, is no longer the most liberal member of the Senate, a title Republicans in Ohio love to remind voters about. But he didn't move too far in the other direction, finishing in a tie for fifth.

-- Sen. Orrin Hatch, R-Utah, was the 15th most conservative member of the Senate in 2011. He was 17 last year.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. A bill legalizing gay marriage passes the Maryland Senate, while a 'personhood' measure is struck down in Virginia. Meanwhile, the battle over contraception rages on between Brown/Warren in Massachusetts while National Journal releases its 2011 vote ratings. Here's today's rundown:

9) Never a good headline for a politician: "Lap Dance Won't End Candidacy" -- Albuquerque Journal

8) Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., will raise money for Ohio Treasurer Josh Mandel's Senate campaign on March 12.

Rubio's name is popping up more when it comes to fundraising for Senate candidates (he is also raising money for Sen. Scott Brown, R-Mass.)

7) Former Wisconsin Republican Gov. Tommy Thompson tells his GOP Senate opponents to "Get the hell out of my way."

6) The Michigan Republican Senate candidates are trotting out dueling national conservative endorsements. Herman Cain stumped with former Rep. Pete Hoekstra, R-Mich., on Thursday while on Friday morning, Redstate.com editor Erick Erickson announced his support for Clark Durant.

5) The battle over social issues continues to rage in Massachusetts where on Thursday, Brown and Democrat Elizabeth Warren released dueling radio ads on contraception, while this morning, both are out with op-eds in the Boston Globe (Brown's, Warren's).

Jon Stewart on Thursday mocked the most recent Republican debate, pointing out how Mitt Romney missed the mark while attempting to reference Seinfeld.

And Conan O'Brien joined in on the debate-bashing, saying about the discussion over illegal immigration and birth control: "I think Ron Paul got confused 'cause he said that we should build a fence around women and pull out of Mexico."

Don't miss today's Must See Moment at 2:16 when Jimmy Fallon sheds light on why Romney might struggle to connect to fellow humans:

Watch the entire debate segment from The Daily Show after the jump.

The National Governors Association meets in Washington this weekend for a semi-annual policy fest filled with best practice seminars and expert panels. But on the sidelines, Republicans will be plotting to take advantage of a rosy electoral climate while Democrats work to keep their seats safe.

Democrats are defending twice as many seats -- 8 to Republicans' 4 -- this cycle. On a national level, they'll defend those seats with less money; the Republican Governors Association more than doubled the fundraising haul of their Democratic counterpart last year.

And Democrats will spend most of their money on defense. Of the Republican seats up in November, Indiana is the only realistic pickup opportunity for the blue team. Democrats recruited John Gregg, a former state House Majority Leader who has worked to craft a moderate profile against conservative Rep. Mike Pence, the likely Republican nominee.

But Gregg has had his share of struggles, angering labor organizers and others on the left with comments he made about why it was "time to move beyond" the issue of right-to-work. Republican Gov. Mitch Daniels signed a right-to-work bill into law earlier this year.

The backlash against Gregg's comments forced him into damage control mode, explaining his comments to the party base. And consider that Gregg is trying to compete in a traditionally red state where the president is not likely to compete.

In North Carolina, where Gov. Bev Perdue looked like the most vulnerable Democrat up for re-election this year, her decision to drop her bid for a second term turned out to be a welcome sign for many Democrats who felt she would drag down the ticket in the crucial swing state.

But Perdue's exit is only an opportunity for Democrats if they could find a strong alternative, and in the weeks since her announcement, more prominent Democrats -- Erskine Bowles, Anthony Foxx, Heath Shuler, among others -- have passed on a chance to run than have entered the race. The three-man Democratic field is headlined by former Rep. Bob Etheridge and Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton, who Republicans believe they can tie to Perdue.

When it comes to consistent messaging, one hallmark of former GOP Sen. George Allen's campaign is the persistent use of the phrase "Chairman Kaine" whenever identifying Democratic frontrunner Tim Kaine.

Allen spokesperson Katie Wright said it most recently in a statement released on Feb. 22 and as far back as Kaine's entry into the race in April 2011.

The Republican's consultant Dan Allen (no relation) got the message too as did Allen's other spokesperson Bill Riggs.

The link goes back to Kaine's days as chairman of the Democratic National Committee. That was the last national office he held, which he ran from 2009 until 2011, until when he resigned to run for the open Senate seat.

Yet Allen's messengers don't refer to their candidate as "Chairman Allen," a title he carried during the 2004 cycle when he helmed the National Republican Senatorial Committee.

Across the Senate landscape, Republicans in competitive races have been going on offense on social issues, following the much-publicized standoff between President Obama and conservatives over a controversial contraception mandate. But there's a notable contest in which the Democrat is seizing the moment to elevate social issues in the race.

And he's doing it in a state where not too long ago, talking about social issues wouldn't be part of a winning formula for most Democrats.

Former Democratic National Committee Chairman Tim Kaine held a conference call on Wednesday to draw attention to two divisive pieces of legislation the state legislature has taken up and to invite former Sen. George Allen to join him in opposing the measure that would require women to undergo an ultrasound procedure before getting an abortion.

"What we're seeing in Richmond now is not what Virginians expect from their leaders. What's happening in Richmond right now is bad for Virginia women, it's bad for Virginia's image, and it's bad for Virginia's businesses," Kaine said.

Kaine criticized Allen for supporting "personhood" legislation that would define life as beginning at conception.

He also discussed the ultrasound measure, which has prompted protests and anger from women's groups and abortion rights activists.

The Indiana Attorney General's office has found that a three-decade old advisory letter issued to Sen. Richard Lugar, R-Ind., indicating that members of Congress are allowed to maintain their state residency for voting purposes even upon leaving the state is valid, bolstering the Republican's argument that he has not violated any residency requirements.

"The analysis and conclusions in the 1982 advisory letter remain valid. Members of Congress do not lose their residency for voting purposes when they leave the state so that they may fulfill their duties," writes Matthew Light, chief counsel in the office's advisory division.

Following a report late last month, Lugar's residency has become a focal point in the campaign, with opponents in both parties criticizing him for not physically living in Indiana.

Lugar lives in Northern Virginia and sold the home he owned in Indianapolis in 1977, but is still registered to vote from that address.

This isn't the last time this story will have legs this week; the state Election Commission will meet on Friday morning to discuss, among other things, a challenge to Lugar's appearance on the ballot.

Even if Lugar faces no legal threat to his status, the damage has already been done, as opponents have seized on the issue, shifting the discussion in the race away from other topics like the economy.

Freshman Rep. Joe Heck, R-Nev., distanced himself this week from comments Mitt Romney has made about letting the foreclosure process "run its course and hit bottom." The Las Vegas Sun's Jon Ralston:

Last October, Romney told the Las Vegas Review-Journal's editorial board this: "As to what to do for the housing industry specifically and are there things that you can do to encourage housing: One is, don't try to stop the foreclosure process. Let it run its course and hit the bottom."

CORRECTION: The original version of this story incorrectly referred to John Brunner's participation in candidate debates. Brunner participated in a Saturday debate.

Sen. Claire McCaskill's worst enemy right now isn't even a candidate in the Senate race. And she's taking notice.

It's always worth a look when an incumbent first goes up on television, as the timing of flight can say a lot about the shape of a race. McCaskill is taking to the airwaves today with her first television spot, a 30-second commercial intended to push back against on onslaught of early attacks from outside groups.

"They're not from around here. Spending millions to attack and attack. But what they are doing to Claire McCaskill is nothing compared to what their special interest agenda will do to you," says the narrator of the ad.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Santorum gets rough reviews in what could be the final debate of the primary season Meanwhile, McCaskill hits the airwaves to push back against outside attacks, Huckabee enters the Missouri Senate fray, Brown heads south to raise money for Rubio and add another name to the list of maybes in the Wisconsin Senate recall race. Here's today's rundown:

9) Add former Wisconsin Secretary of State Doug La Follette to the list of possible Democratic challengers to Republican Gov. Scott Walker. He did not say for sure that he is running, but he's filing paperwork to make it possible.

Democratic strategists in the state don't view La Follette as a top-tier candidate on par with Kathleen Falk or Tom Barrett (who is still mulling a bid).

8) New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie will raise money for Sen. Scott Brown, R-Mass., on March 5.

Brown, meanwhile, is in Florida today raising money for Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla.

7) The Arizona Attorney General's Office on Wednesday designated Solicitor General Dave Cole as the head of an investigation into allegations of abuse of power against Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu, per the Arizona Republic. Attorney General Tom Horne recused himself because of a political connection to Babeu.

6) Sen. Claire McCaskill, D-Mo., is pushing back against attacks from outside groups with launching of her first TV ad. She's been targeted by Crossroads, including in a recent ad by the GOP-aligned group.

Mike Huckabee is wading into the Missouri Senate race; his PAC is backing Rep. Todd Akin, putting him at odds with Sen. Mike Lee, R-Utah, who is backing Sarah Steelman.

But don't forget about state Auditor Tom Schweich: He's been talking about federal issues and is considering entering the Senate race against McCaskill.

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Republican presidential candidate Rick Santorum celebrated Mardi Gras this week.

And famously Mormon Mitt Romney had ash on his head on Wednesday. Why, you ask? Jay Leno has the scoop.

Don't miss today's Must See Moment at 3:20 when Ron Paul, taking inspiration from President Obama singing "Sweet Home Chicago," breaks out some new dance moves:

For Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu, navigating the waters of Arizona's 4th District race have been complicated by a report last week in which a former lover made some dramatic allegations and prompted Babeu to publicly acknowledge that he is gay, raising many questions from many different people.

But Babeu's fate may well rest on how two main issues play in the race: One is the state attorney general's investigation into allegations that Babeu threatened to deport his former lover -- allegations Babeu adamantly denies. The second is the revelation that he is gay.

On the latter point first: Babeu is running in the state's most conservative congressional district, in which the rural counties supported the "one man, one woman" ballot measure at rates higher compared to the rest of the state. As House Race Hotline (subscriber) notes, in Pinal County, Babeu's base, voted 61.3 percent in favor for the measure - higher than the overall state percentage.

"Whatever people's views are of marriage, it's not going to translate to opposition to the sheriff," his campaign manager Chris DeRose said.

But Babeu will continue to be asked the question CNN's Wolf Blitzer posed on Monday: Whether gay men and women should have the right to marry. Babeu's answer was general enough to allow it to come up again in the future.

"This is where it falls to the states," responded Babeu, adding "Arizona has made a decision. That's the law of the land. I enforce the law."

"The government shouldn't tell those faiths and those religions that they have to. At the same time, I don't believe they should tell other faiths that they can't. And this is where our government needs to get the heck out of the way. And if it's not harming someone else, then what does it matter? And you can't legislate love," he also said.

On the former point, the investigation -- which Babeu requested himself -- is problematic in that it will continue to stay in the news until it wraps up. Even if he is cleared of any wrongdoing at the conclusion, he will have to withstand headline after headline referencing an investigation of possible violations made by and against him.

Oklahoma's Tom Coburn is the most conservative member of the Senate, while New Yorker Kirsten Gillibrand and Oregon's Jeff Merkley share the title of top liberals, according to National Journal's 2011 Congressional Vote Ratings.

Coburn jumped eight spots to snag the most conservative label this year, and it's Gillibrand's second consecutive appearance in the list of top ten most liberal members.

(PICTURES: Most Liberal Senators | Most Conservative Senators)

For the past three decades, National Journal has rated members of Congress based on selected roll-call votes from the previous year to create an ideological scale for Congress. This year, National Journal examined all 949 roll call votes in the House and each of the 235 cast by the Senate, pulling out those that demonstrate clear ideological gaps.

Many votes don't make the cut -- those that involve noncontroversial issues or that fall along regional lines, for instance. This year, 105 House votes and 97 Senate roll calls made the cut in our as economic, foreign or social policy categories.

After the jump, take a look at the full list of the ten most conservative and ten most liberal members of the Senate. And stay tuned to NationalJournal.com as we roll out the annual ratings.

Andrew Ian Dodge, a long-shot primary challenger against Sen. Olympia Snowe, R-Maine, announced that he will exit the GOP race and will pursue a run as an independent.

Dodge cited the state party's recent handling of the Maine presidential caucuses as the reason for his exit. The Central Maine Morning Sentinel:

Dodge's exit leaves the GOP race to Snowe and Scott D'Amboise, who is a considerable underdog.

Despite the buzz at the outset of the cycle that Snowe would be vulnerable to a primary challenge from the right, the senator has not attracted any formidable opponents so far.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Boxer's backing Berman over Sherman, McDonnell shifts his stance on a controversial abortion measure, and all eyes are on Arizona, where the GOP presidential candidates will debate for the last time in advance of next Tuesday's primaries in Arizona and Michigan. Here's today's rundown:

7) Sen. Barbara Boxer, D-Calif., is backing Rep. Howard Berman against fellow Democratic Rep. Brad Sherman following a mailer from Sherman's campaign that linked a pro-Berman super PAC to a 2010 pipeline explosion.

6) A new Marquette Law School poll shows former Wisconsin Republican Gov. Tommy Thompson leading Democratic Rep. Tammy Baldwin 48 to 42 percent. Baldwin leads Mark Neumann, 44 percent to 40 percent, and state Assembly Speaker Jeff Fitzgerald, 45 percent to 37 percent.

We'll have more from the survey later this morning.

5) The Wall Street Journal reports that the Obama administration will propose lowering the top income-tax rate for corporations to 28 percent from 35 percent but would raise overall tax revenue by eliminating some deductions.

4) Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell is no longer committing to signing a controversial measure mandating women to have an ultrasound before getting an abortion if the bill makes it to his desk (though an aide tells the Washington Post he will review it if it makes it that far). McDonnell is a national figure, as chairman of the RGA and someone who is generally considered to be on the short list of potential VP nominees -- this looks like a move with an eye on his national standing.

The Daily Show on Tuesday went after Virginia legislation that would require any woman who had an abortion to first have a transvaginal ultrasound.

To Gov. Bob McDonnell, who previously spoke out against full-body pat-downs at the airport, Jon Stewart said: "Women might consider this bill a TSA pat-down inside their vagina."

Don't miss today's Must See Moment at 2:56 when Stewart impersonates Ronald Reagan:

CORRECTION: An earlier version of this story misstated the sample size and margin of error of the Michigan poll. The poll surveyed 3,149 registered voters with a margin of error of plus-or-minus 1.8 percentage points.

Sen. Debbie Stabenow, D-Mich., holds a commanding lead over the top Republican seeking her seat, former Rep. Pete Hoekstra, while Rep. Jeff Flake, R-Ariz., is the leading contender to succeed Sen. Jon Kyl, R-Ariz., according to new polls released early Wednesday.

In Michigan, Stabenow leads Hoekstra, 53 percent to 32 percent, with 15 percent of voters undecided. Meanwhile, in Arizona, Flake leads former Surgeon General Richard Carmona, who is running as a Democrat, 42 percent to 29 percent. Twenty-eight percent of voters in that race are undecided.

The NBC News/Marist polls were conducted primarily to survey likely Republican primary voters in the two states ahead of their contests next Tuesday. But each poll also included a question on the states' respective Senate elections, posed to all registered voters.

Stabenow's lead in Michigan is bolstered by a 12-point edge among independent voters, 46 percent to 34 percent. She leads by 12 percentage points among men, but doubles up on Hoekstra among women, 56 percent to 28 percent.

Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., will remain in the 6th District, where she'll run for reelection, even as a new congressional map unveiled by a redistricting panel on Tuesday draws her home into Democratic Rep. Betty McCollum's 4th District.

"I refuse to allow the courts to arbitrarily determine who my friends, neighbors, and constituents are, and I will take every necessary step to correct this injustice. I have therefore decided to campaign for re-election in the new sixth district, where a majority of my constituents remain," Bachmann said in an email to supporters on Tuesday afternoon.

Bachmann currently represents the 6th District, which stands to become a bit more GOP-friendly under the new map. There is no law preventing Bachmann from running in the 6th even though her home isn't located there under the new map.

Elsewhere, the new map does not propose any dramatic changes. The Minneapolis Star-Tribune:

Check out the complete map here.

Democrat Alex Sink, who lost to Florida Republican Gov. Rick Scott by 1.2 percent (61,550 votes) in the open 2010 race leaves the door open to a 2014 rematch in an interview with the Tampa Bay Times:

More:

(h/t Daily Kos Elections)

The race is heating up in Illinois's new 16th District, where a veteran-versus-freshman GOP primary matchup will be decided in less than a month.

Freshman Rep. Adam Kinzinger and Rep. Don Manzullo, who has served in Congress since 1993, released dueling TV ads this week that go after one another on the same issue: spending.

"Who's he kidding? In just the last year Congressman Adam Kinzinger voted to spend $209 billion more than Don Manzullo did," the narrator of Manzullo's spot says.

Kinzinger addresses the camera directly in his own spot, casting Manzullo as the "King of Earmarks."

Kinzinger's latest ad, released on Monday, is his third spot: His first, released last month, was a positive, introductory ad. He released a second ad last week that went after Manzullo on the issue of debt.

Manzullo has released ads before, but his latest commercial is the first one that directly goes after Kinzinger.

A redistricting map spearheaded by Democrats prompted Kinzinger to challenge the veteran GOP member in the 16th District.

The primary will take place on March 20 and this evening, the two candidates will debate for the first time. Kinzinger outraised Manzullo by $116,000 during the fourth quarter and also had more money in the bank at the end of the period.

Check out both spots below the jump.

9-9-9 has a new ally.

It's former Michigan Republican Rep. Pete Hoekstra, whose Senate campaign has the backing of Herman Cain. On Monday, Cain's PAC touted Hoekstra's support of the former GOP presidential candidate's much-publicized economic plan.

"I'm delighted to have Pete on board with '9-9-9' The Revolution," Cain said.

Cain's hitting the campaign trail with Hoekstra later this week.

It may seem counterintuitive to tout Cain and his policies in a swing state race against a Democratic senator, but Hoekstra's move appears keyed toward firing up a base whose financial and electoral support he will need in the short-term.

There are fresh signs that Sen. Richard Lugar, R-Ind., who avoided tough scrutiny for much of the primary campaign, is losing ground as he tries to fend off a challenge from state Treasurer Richard Mourdock on May 8.

Here's why:

-- Lugar's hitting Mourdock on TV: For the first time, Lugar is criticizing Mourdock on the air. He released radio and TV ads on Tuesday hitting back against the challenger.

"Typical, desperate 11- time candidate, Richard Mourdock is obviously throwing mud to hide his own disastrous record," says an announcer in the TV commercial.

Until now, Lugar has stuck to positive ads aimed at improving his image. Sooner or later, a nasty ad war was bound to happen (Mourdock has already hit Lugar in limited TV buys). The beginning of that war has arrived and it signals the Lugar camp's concern about the threat presented by Mourdock.

-- Club For Growth standing with Mourdock: As I wrote last week, the fact that the Club waited until the 11th hour to get behind Mourdock speaks volumes about the weakness of the challenger's campaign. But with the Club's belated support, Mourdock's anemic fundraising should see a boost.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. A Romney adviser dials down Michigan expectations, Paul Babeu says he will press on despite the allegations against him, Lugar's still defending his Hoosier residency, and a new map will be released this afternoon in Minnesota. Here's today's rundown:

9) Mark Leibovich's Monday profile of David Plouffe is worth a read and includes some colorful nuggets:

8) Sen. Claire McCaskill, D-Mo., pushes back against radio ads against her with matching radio buys of her own.

7) Keep an eye on Minnesota this afternoon, when a panel will release an updated congressional redistricting map.

6) Not a good weekend for Rep. Connie Mack, R-Fla., who was forced to confront this Miami Herald headline: "Connie Mack preaches penny-pinching on campaign trail, but has past of debt and liens.

5) Straight from the department of unenthusiastic endorsements comes the Cleveland Plain Dealer's backing of Josh Mandel in the Ohio GOP Senate primary:

Maya Rudolph on Saturday spoofed Michelle Obama's recent TV blitz by introducing a new sitcom promoting her "Let's Move" initiative -- The Obama Show, modelled off of The Cosby Show.

Rudolph donned a pencil skirt to play a rice-cake toting first lady in the inaugural episode in which Joe Biden gets to borrow the car when he takes responsibility for President Obama's hoagie.

Don't miss today's Must See Moment at 1:53 when Stephen Colbert gets "Trumped":

Rahm Emanuel hasn't lost his fastball.

Since his rise to prominence as a senior aide to Bill Clinton, Emanuel's outbursts and cantankerous relationships with the press, political foes and coworkers alike have become the stuff of legend.

When The Promise, Jonathan Alter's in-depth account of the first year of the Obama White House, was released in 2010, the documentation of Emanuel's antics received as much coverage as the inner-workings of the administration's push for health care reform. The objects of Emanuel's rage ranged from Clinton, his old boss, to Bo, his new boss's dog.

When Emanuel left the White House last year to run for mayor of Chicago, the Beltway lost one of its most colorful characters. But Emanuel fans will be glad to know that his return home doesn't seem to have softened him much at all. The Chicago Tribune posted a transcript this week of a recent interview with the mayor -- and it is loaded with quintessential Rahm-being-Rahm moments. Here are a few things we learned perusing the transcript:

Emanuel is not a fan of Chicago Tribune reporter David Kidwell:

At the very beginning of the Feb. 8 interview, Emanuel playfully (we think) tells Kidwell: "I hate you."

But the mayor was just getting warmed up. A bit later, Kidwell prefaced a question by saying, "With all due respect." Emanuel shot back: "I don't think you have any respect for me so don't worry about it."

What we at The Hotline learned this week:

-- The ABC News/Washington Post poll last week was not an outlier after all, we learned this week. Three other national polls (CBS/New York Times, CNN/ORC and Pew) all showed President Obama gaining ground -- and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney ceding it. The CNN poll showed Obama's approval hitting 50 percent among all adults, and his lead over Romney among registered voters is now five points (up from a one-point Romney lead a month ago). Obama also hit the 50-percent mark in the CBS/NYT poll, and he also netted six points in a matchup with Romney among all voters, breaking a tie from a month ago. In the Pew poll, Obama again gained six points over the past month against Romney, turning a two-point lead into eight.

But Romney's problems start well before the general election. He ended the week trailing former Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pa., in the Gallup tracking poll by four points, and the three national polls also show Santorum edging in front of Romney. Romney finds himself boxed in: The most conservative voters in the GOP primary still aren't buying him, and the crucial swing voters in the general election are souring on his candidacy. What we learn about Romney over the next week leading up to Arizona and Michigan on Feb. 28 may dictate his chances of being the nation's next president.

-- Obama made his first visit to Wisconsin in over a year this week, and we were reminded of why he's been absent for so long. Last year's dispute over collective bargaining triggered a series of state Senate recalls in the Badger State -- but in districts Republicans won in 2008, even as Obama carried the state by double digits. So his presence would not have been helpful.

But next up is a different type of recall, a statewide affair in which turnout will matter, regardless of where in the state it comes from. Obama will have a decision to make about how closely he wants to tether himself to the Democratic nominee in the near-certain recall. And how close he stays will say a lot about what the White House thinks the chances of defeating Gov. Scott Walker look like.

-- It's been over a week since Obama reversed course on a controversial contraception mandate that caused an uproar from conservatives and the Catholic Church. But his proposed compromise hasn't done much to quell Senate Republicans' anger. Sen. Scott Brown, R-Mass., is tethering himself to Sen. Roy Blunt's amendment while Sarah Steelman and Crossroads GPS are going on offense with the issue in Missouri. Using the issue as a contrast point isn't without risk: Brown, in particular risks alienating the middle in the Bay State.

-- In two major statewide races still waiting on official election dates, the delays are having opposite effects on the frontrunners' campaigns. In Texas, Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, the heavy favorite in the Republican Senate race, watches as his invincibility takes a hit with each new delay of the Lone Star State's primary date. A drawn-out primary battle means more time for his chief opponents, former state Solicitor General Ted Cruz and former Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert, to raise money, boost their name ID and chip away at Dewhurst's commanding lead in the polls.

But Wisconsin's Walker is looking to extend the delay in the Wisconsin's recall process as long as possible. Due to a quirk in the state's campaign finance law, Walker can raise unlimited funds until the date of the election is set, allowing him to further bolster his already massive campaign warchest.

Arizona's Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu may be gay, but he does not shy away from conservative talking points and brags about being the first Republican ever to get elected in a traditionally Democratic stronghold.

Until his shocking admission about his sexual orientation on Saturday, he looked like he was going to slide easily into elected office representing Arizona's new 4th congressional district. He was 10 points ahead of his GOP opponents, who will face off in an August primary. He said he is determined not to back away from the congressional campaign, although the climb will be much steeper now.

Babeu's explanation about his landslide win to become Pinal County sheriff becomes all the more poignant now that his sexual orientation is out.

Speaking to National Journal a few weeks ago about his primary campaign issue, immigration and border security, he had this to say: "I took away what has been nationally a portrayal of this issue about race, color, and national origin. It has nothing to do with that. It has everything to do with enforcement of the law and being fair and equal."

"Fair and equal" means different things to different people, and Republicans have not been known for their kindness toward gay people, a fact Babeu acknowledged in a press conference Saturday. He has said been threatened to be outed for years, to the point where the revelation almost came as a relief.

Babeu managed to win over Pinal County a few years ago, so in theory he just has to keep doing what he's doing to keep their faith. Right? His men admire him. Lt. Matthew Thomas, a member of the Pinal County SWAT team, said the county cops were nervous when he became their boss, but they quickly learned that Babeu was their biggest supporter.

Personal identity is obviously something that Babeu thinks about a lot. He told National Journal that his campaign to secure the border comes in part from a potent feeling of discrimination against the cops who patrol it. "Who are the bad guys? Law enforcement. My brothers and sisters in law enforcement have been villainized by our president. We're the bad guys," he said. "Our heroes have been villainized through this process, and it's hard for me to swallow."

Babeu is nothing if not passionate about shutting down the U.S./Mexico border through which he says there has been seemingly endless drug running through his county. He scoffed at Department of Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano for saying that Congress won't be able to fund the 700 mile, $4 billion border fence he wants to build. He accused Nogales Mayor Arturo Garino, a Democrat, of "drinking the Kool-Aid of Janet Napolitano" for saying the border is secure. Garino, who represents the biggest border town in Arizona, shot back that Babeu can't call himself a border sheriff when he's 70 miles in.

On the national scene, Babeu said that he's ready to take on House GOP leaders and their budget-cutting zeal. He certainly has the energy for it. He said he is in a unique position to fight for the border in Congress. He has practical experience as tactical commander for the Yuma border sector in 2006, where crossings were reduced by 75 percent. Now he wants 6,000 troops and 5,000 more border patrol agents along the southern border.

Yet Babeu insisted he was a fiscal conservative. He said the government should shift money away from the Iraq and Afghanistan and put it onto border security. "Here's the thing. Prioritize spending," he said. "How can we spend, through Bush and Obama, regardless of their operations politically about Iraq and Afghanistan, how can we spend the sums of money and the lives of our sons and daughters on this when we're not even protecting our own border?"

An Arizona sheriff who became the face of Sen. John McCain's stand against illegal immigration threatened his boyfriend, an illegal immigrant himself, with deportation if news of their relationship ever leaked out, an alternative newspaper in Arizona reported Saturday.

Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu, the star of the 2008 advertisement in which McCain says he wanted to "complete the danged fence," denied the report in a press conference on Saturday. Babeu, who is running for a newly drawn House seat that stretches from the Phoenix exurbs north and west to the Nevada border, admitted he is gay but called the allegations that he threatened his boyfriend with deportation "completely false," according to the Arizona Republic.

The Phoenix New Times first reported the threats early Saturday after interviewing the boyfriend, a 34-year old Mexican man, and his lawyer. The boyfriend alleges Chris DeRose, Babeu's campaign manager, demanded he sign a confidentiality agreement; if the relationship became public, the boyfriend says DeRose hinted it would focus attention on the boyfriend's immigration status.

Super PACs and other outside groups have garnered a lot of attention this election cycle. The organizations have dramatically affected the course of the GOP presidential race and President Obama's -- a vocal opponent of the Supreme Court's Citizen United ruling -- campaign is publicly supporting fundraising for an allied group.

But a new study shows that party committees, which have often been overshadowed by outside groups like American Crossroads and Priorities USA, are still notable financial forces in electoral politics.

The study, performed by the nonpartisan Campaign Finance Institute, shows that the six major party committees raised a combined $404 million in 2011, outpacing previous off years.

The DNC's fundraising was also ahead of the RNC's fundraising in 2005 and 2003 -- $105 million and $108 million respectively -- both years when George W. Bush was president. The DNC's 2011 pace, the study found, was a major reason for the six-committee increase:

A couple of other notable findings from the study: The DNC was much reliant on large donors, while the RNC relied on smaller donors more heavily than the other five committees. More than a third of the DNC's money came from large donors.

Former Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pa., who pulled even with frontrunning Mitt Romney in national polls this week, will appear on CBS's Face the Nation to talk about the presidential race. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich who is hoping to resurrect his campaign, will appear on Fox News Sunday while Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, will discuss strategy on CNN's State of the Union.

Rep. Chris Van Hollen, D-Md., and Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis., will appear on NBC's Meet the Press and House Majority Leader Eric Cantor will be on Fox News Sunday to discuss the president's budget proposal. Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., and former White House press secretary Robert Gibbs will talk about President Obama's electoral prospects on ABC's This Week. Indiana Republican Gov. Mitch Daniels and Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz will be on State of the Union to offer perspectives on the economy and 2012 landscape.

Foreign policy is also on the agenda on State of the Union as former CIA Director Gen. Michael Hayden and former Ambassador Edward Walker will be on to discuss the latest on Iran.

Be sure to tune in this weekend to MSNBC's debut program Melissa Harris-Perry at 10 a.m. on Saturday and Sunday. On both editions Melissa Harris-Perry, cable news' only PhD host, will discuss a wide range of issues from the evolution of the Republican Party to poverty in America.

On Saturday at 10 p.m. on Fox News Channel, Shepard Smith will host a special: Glen Campbell Fights Alzheimer's. On the one hour program, musician Glen Campbell will offer an in-depth look at the Alzheimer's disease. Smith will interview Maria Shriver about her own father's struggle and Vice President Joe Biden will discuss raising awareness about the disease.

Check out the full listings after the jump.

Sometimes, you have to take the bad with the good.

On its face, the new Suffolk University/WHDH-TV poll released late Thursday night is good news for Sen. Scott Brown, R-Mass., who leads his chief Democratic rival, Harvard University professor and consumer advocate Elizabeth Warren, by nine percentage points. Other public surveys show Warren -- at worst -- running even with Brown, including a separate poll released earlier this week.

But the new Suffolk poll also shows some longer-term slippage for Brown on other questions, including a slight decline in both his personal popularity and the percentage of Massachusetts voters who believe he deserves to be reelected.

The poll represented Boston-based Suffolk University's first survey in Massachusetts since last April, so they had never tested a Brown-Warren matchup. In the previous poll, 58 percent of voters said they had a favorable opinion of Brown. In the new poll, Brown's favorable rating has slid to 52 percent, dropping from 41 percent to 32 percent among Democrats and slipping from 65 percent to 60 percent among independents. The percentage of voters who have an unfavorable opinion of Brown has risen accordingly, from 22 percent last April, to 28 percent now.

Brown's reelect numbers have suffered a similar decline, according to Suffolk's data. Now, 45 percent of Bay State voters say Brown deserves to be reelected, while 39 percent say it is "time to give someone else a chance." Last April, 55 percent of voters said Brown deserved reelection, while only 29 percent said he did not.

Brown has bled support among Democrats: The percentage of Democrats who say Brown deserves reelection has declined from 38 percent last April, to 20 percent now. His decline among independents -- from 62 percent to 54 percent -- has not been as steep.

The debate over employer coverage of contraception shows no signs of slowing, and the divided results from this week's National Journal Political Insiders Poll may help explain why. Insiders in both parties are overwhelming convinced that the issue is a winner for their respective sides.

Updated at 6:44 p.m.

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee raised $5 million in January and has $15.4 million in the bank, the committee announced on Friday, meaning it outraised the National Republican Senatorial Committee and finished with more money in the bank.

The DSCC has raised $47 million so far this cycle. The committee is debt free.

The NRSC raised $4.19 million and ended the month with 13.4 million in the bank, with no debt.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee outraised the National Republican Congressional Committee in January, but the NRCC has more money in the bank, according to filings the two committees will hand over to the FEC today.

The DCCC brought in $6.02 million last month, while the NRCC pulled in $4.8 million.

The DCCC had its best January ever and the NRCC enjoyed its best January since 2007 and its best opening month ever in an election year.

Both committees have paid off all their debt from the 2010 cycle. The DCCC has $13.05 million left in the bank, while the NRCC has $17.6 million on hand.

In the clearest sign to date that Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett is considering jumping into the Democratic primary in Wisconsin's likely gubernatorial recall election, Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel is scheduled to headline a fundraiser for Barrett in late March.

Barrett, who lost to Republican Gov. Scott Walker in 2010, has played coy when asked about his desire to launch another gubernatorial bid, saying he is focused on his mayoral reelection campaign. Walker is likely to face a recall election this summer.

Tom Bowen, a spokesman for Emanuel, told Politico the fundraiser does not reflect a preference in the recall primary. He said Emanuel is just helping a fellow Democratic mayor's reelection bid.

But the timing is interesting. The event is slated for March 28, less than a week before the April 3 general election in Milwaukee. That's pretty late in the game for a mayoral fundraiser. What's more, the state is still in the process of verifying recall petition signatures for the gubernatorial race. The process is subject to further delays, so no one knows for sure when the process will end, but it could wrap up in late March, just before Barrett's scheduled fundraiser.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. It's on in Michigan, where Santorum took a swipe at Romney in Detroit on Thursday. Meanwhile, Brown pens an op-ed in which he continues to press for the Blunt amendment, Durant releases a new TV ad, and Herman Cain will stump for Pete Hoekstra. Here's today's rundown:

9) Illinois Democrat Brad Schneider has released an internal poll showing him leading the pack in the 10th District primary race, with 29 percent support, compared to Ilya Sheyman who is at 14 percent, John Tree who is at 4 percent and Vivek Bavda who is at 2 percent. The primary is on March 20. The Chicago Sun-Times has the release from the Schneider campaign, and reaction from Sheyman here.

8) Herman Cain will stump for former Michigan Republican Rep. Pete Hoekstra next week, the Grand Rapids Press reports.

7) Clark Durant, meanwhile, released his second TV ad in the Senate race on Thursday, a spot that assails Hoekstra for voting for TARP. "Only a Washington politician calls himself PeteSpenditNOT, when his record proves he's PeteSpendsALOT," says the announcer of the ad.

6) New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie endorsed and appeared with state Sen. Joe Kyrillos on Thursday. The two are good friends; Kyrillos chaired Christie's 2009 gubernatorial campaign.

Jon Stewart on Thursday picked apart Mitt Romney's ad in which he waxes nostalgic about his memories of his early life in Michigan.

"That photo in the ad of Romney and his dad at the Detroit Auto Show is actually of him and his dad at the 1964 New York World's Fair," Jon Stewart said. "And you won't be surprised, he wasn't actually driving, he was...being driven."

Don't miss today's Must See Moment at 1:43 for "This Week in Unnecessary Censorship":

Sen. Scott Brown, R-Mass., leads Democratic challenger Elizabeth Warren by nine points, riding a dominant advantage among independent voters, according to a Suffolk University/WHDH-TV poll released Thursday night.

Brown carries 49 percent to Warren's 40 percent of the overall vote, and laps her among the independent voters who comprise a majority of the Massachusetts electorate, 60 percent to 28 percent.

The poll, taken as Brown has been shelled by Democrats for co-sponsoring legislation permitting employers to restrict access to contraception coverage on religious grounds, is a departure from other recent surveys that have shown Warren with a small lead.

Warren, the consumer advocate President Obama passed over to helm the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau she helped design, has quickly consolidated support among Massachusetts Democrats, overcoming concerns that voters and the state's political establishment would resist a candidate born in Oklahoma and encouraged to run by Senate Democrats in Washington.

When the poll asked likely Democratic voters whether they preferred Warren or two other Democrats running, Marisa DeFranco and Jim King, the underdogs' support was negligible.

But the independents who sway elections in Massachusetts have been reluctant to leave Brown. Independents account for almost 52 percent of registered voters in the Bay State, and were pivotal to Brown's shocking victory there in 2010.

That dynamic explains why Brown's stance on the contraception is so tricky for him.

Democratic Rep. Brad Miller, D-N.C., won't run for governor of North Carolina, he said in a statement on Thursday afternoon.

"After much consideration, I have decided not to run for Governor," he said.

"My mother struggled as a widowed bookkeeper to make sure I had the opportunity for an education that was denied her and my father. We need a Governor who will fight the efforts of Republicans in the legislature to close those doors of opportunity by their assault on public education," Miller continued. "But the issues I have worked on in Congress for a decade are the injustice and dysfunction in our nation's economy."

Last month, Miller announced that he would retiring from the House instead of running against fellow Democratic Rep. David Price in a merged district.

On the same say, Democratic Bev Perdue announced her retirement, stoking speculation that Miller, among others might jump into the open race.

Miller was a favorite of the left; the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, for example, was bullish about Miller as a prospective gubernatorial candidate.

While he won't be a candidate for governor, Miller kept the door open to the possibility of a future run for political office.

One might think a former FBI agent and U.S. Marine would be the last person to find himself in the midst of uncomfortable ethical reports. But that's the position Rep. Michael Grimm, R-N.Y. finds himself in.

Grimm has been replaced as one of Mitt Romney's presidential delegates in New York, sparking speculation that the ethical questions encircling him could be taking their toll on the freshman congressman.

Last month, the New York Times detailed alleged fundraising violations committed by Grimm's 2010 campaign, accusing the former FBI agent of, among other things, skirting fundraising limits and accepting $5,000 in cash in an envelope.

The New York Times ran another story on Thursday highlighting Grimm's checkered business record. According to the piece, Grimm entered into a business partnership with a fellow former FBI agent who was indicted on charges of racketeering and fraud. Grimm also once owned a Manhattan restaurant that "has been accused in a lawsuit of cheating its workers and fined by the state for failing to carry workers' compensation."

He has also faced questions over his backing of a natural gas pipeline in Queens and subsequently accepting campaign donations from the pipeline's supporters. And last year, a piece in the New Yorker contained an anecdote suggesting that, during his time with the FBI, Grimm abused his power during a conflict at a nightclub.

In advance of a near certain recall election, a national ally of Wisconsin Republican Gov. Scott Walker is taking to the airwaves with a new TV ad aimed at bolstering the image of Walker's controversial budget repair law, and features state workers touting the measure's reforms.

Americans for Prosperity Foundation, the 501(c)3 sister origination of Americans for Prosperity, is launching a new minute-long spot featuring state workers praising the reforms enacted by Walker's controversial law, which curbed collective bargaining for public employees.

"I'm a state employee. And while I'm paying some of my insurance and retirement costs now, I know I have better benefits than most," says a man named "Shannon," who is identified as a state employee in the spot.

The ad is part of a previously disclosed $700,000 ad buy. Approximately half of the $700,000 total buy is being spent on the new spot, AFP spokesman Levi Russell said.

A suspended sentence for the man who managed former Maryland Republican Gov. Bob Ehrlich's 2010 gubernatorial campaign and was convicted for an improper robocall that prosecutors said was designed to suppress the black vote. The Baltimore Sun:

Rep. John Garamendi, D-Calif., has already hit the airwaves to introduce himself to voters in his newly redrawn, and more competitive, district. But one of his ads isn't so new. In fact, it's almost an exact replay of a commercial he ran six years ago -- for an entirely different office.

The original ad, which features Garamendi riding a horse and milling about his family ranch, was for his 2006 campaign for lieutenant governor.

It concluded with tagline "Can't be bought. Won't back down."

This year's rendition: "A leader we can be proud of."

It makes sense that Garamendi would run a spot very similar to the ad he ran in 2006, a commercial that was positive and introductory. Garamendi's running in California's new 3rd District, over three quarters of which is outside his current 10th District. Despite being an incumbent member of Congress, Garamendi is facing the same challenge he faced when he was running for a new office.

Garamendi is one of the grizzled veterans of California politics, having run for governor three times and served in various offices, from insurance commissioner to lieutenant governor, since his election to the Legislature in the 1970s.

So he's got plenty of campaign commercial footage in the bank. In the latest ad, he uses all the same footage, but tweaks his message slightly for these tough economic times. Six years ago, Garamendi pledged to protect "the environment and I'll fight for quality health care."

This year? He wants "to bring new jobs to our area."

After the jump, check out Garamendi's 2006 ad.

Nearly a week after President Obama reversed course on a policy mandating certain religious organizations provide contraceptive coverage, the issue remains a dividing line in several key Senate races, with some Republicans wagering that it's still smart politics for them to go on offense with the dispute.

In Missouri, underfunded former Republican state Treasurer Sarah Steelman is launching a cable TV ad that goes after Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill over the administration's position. Steelman, low on cash, is wagering that she can fire up conservatives with a targeted buy reaching a limited audience.

Crossroads GPS, the 501(c)(4) arm of the Karl Rove and Ed Gillespie-backed American Crossroads is taking to the radio airwaves on Thursday with a $65,000 buy aimed at dinging McCaskill over the contraception controversy.

On Friday, Obama announced an amendment to his administration's original policy, shifting the responsibility for covering contraceptive services from religious organizations to the insurance companies, something McCaskill called a "win-win."

"The facts: Claire believes women should have access to birth control, which would prevent abortions across Missouri, and she feels strongly that religious freedoms should be respected," said Missouri Democratic Party spokeswoman Caitlin Legacki.

McCaskill has not shied away from siding with Obama, cognizant of the fact that Republicans are going to tie her to him no matter what she does. Her positioning on this issue is consistent with that and allows her to maintain her support from women and social liberals.

While Obama's about face brought him some praise, it hardly quelled the backlash on the right and among Catholic leaders.

Earlier this week, the top U.S. Catholic bishop vowed challenges to Obama's ruling after deeming it unacceptable. Sen. Roy Blunt, R-Mo., meanwhile, has introduced an amendment that would exempt health care providers from pieces of the health care law violating their conscience. Among the co-sponsors of the measure: Sen. Scott Brown, R-Mass.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Rick Snyder is backing Romney in Michigan, as the former Bay State governor and his allies are blanketing the airwaves in the state. Meanwhile, McCaskill takes heat from multiple sides over the Obama Administration's contraception ruling, the actress in the controversial Hoekstra ad says she's sorry, and EMILY's List gets behind Kathleen Falk in Wisconsin. Here's today's rundown:

8) The actress in former Rep. Pete Hoekstra's controversial TV ad has apologized in a posting on her Facebook page, writing, "I am deeply sorry for any pain that the character I portrayed brought to my communities."

7) Republican Sarah Steelman has launched her first TV ad in the Missouri Senate race. The topic of the ad is the controversial contraception coverage mandate that roiled the political sphere for much of last week -- and was amended by the administration on Friday to assuage concerns. Steelman uses the issue to tie Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill to President Obama. McCaskill called the amended rule -- which shifts the respectability of covering contraception from certain religious-affiliated institutions to the insurance companies -- a "win-win" last week.

Steelman's ad will air on Fox News. She hasn't raised very much money; this spot is intended to fire up social conservatives in the hopes of giving her an edge in the primary.

Meanwhile, Crossroads GPS is hitting McCaskill in a $65,000 radio buy over the issue.

6) Missouri is not the only place the administration's mandate remains an issue: In Massachusetts, Republican Sen. Scott Brown and Elizabeth Warren are also ramping up their attacks on the issue.

That the ruling remains an issue in two key Senate races nearly a week after the president sought to quiet criticism indicates that it still will be a potent issue in many 2012 battleground races.

5) Today, EMILY's List is endorsing Kathleen Falk in the near-certain Wisconsin gubernatorial recall election. Falk is the only major candidate in the Democratic field right now, but the former Dane County executive could get some company. The name everyone in Wisconsin is watching: Tom Barrett, the mayor of Milwaukee. Falk is expected to unite labor support under her campaign's umbrella (labor is no fan of Barrett) and with EMILY's List on her side, Barrett could find himself up against multiple influential organizations on the left if he runs.

Jon Stewart skewered members of Congress allegedly trading stock based on non-public information they learn on the job.

On proposed legislation that would make Congress obey the same insider-trading laws as everyone else? "I believe that was in the No Sh*t, Sherlock Act," Stewart joked.

On "honest grafts" that members engage in: "It's our system of checks and balances," he said. "They deposit checks; it increases their balances."

Watch:

President Obama returned to Wisconsin on Wednesday for the first time in a year, where he delivered an address on jobs. But as notable about the address' timing was the fact that this was his first visit to the state in over a year, despite its standing as a leading battleground in the 2012 elections. The president's avoidance of the state coincides with the polarizing fight labor unions have waged against Republican governor Scott Walker, prompting a recall campaign against him over his budget reform law.

The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel noted a telling statistic: In the seven months before Walker announced the details of his controversial budget repair bill which curbed collective bargaining for public employees, Obama visited the swing state five times, while in the year since, his only visit was the one he made on Wednesday.

Obama's visit to Wisconsin on Wednesday was an official one, not a campaign trip, and he did not mention the recall campaign against Walker, who greeted the president upon his arrival, but citing illness, did not appear with him at his speech. Asked by the Journal Sentinel if the state's political tensions kept Obama away, a White House spokeswoman responded that Obama was in Wisconsin on Wednesday to discuss "bringing manufacturing jobs back home."

But the president has weighed in before, about a year ago, when he reacted to the then-active protests in Madison following the unveiling of Walker's bill.

"Some of what I've heard coming out of Wisconsin, where you're just making it harder for public employees to collectively bargain generally seems like more of an assault on unions," Obama told WTMJ in February of 2011.

For the past year, former Texas Solicitor General Ted Cruz has been playing a lot of offense in the open seat Senate race: He consistently tried to make the case that Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst is not sufficiently conservative and accused him of dodging candidate forums. But the underdog conservative could soon find himself playing more defense -- and not against Dewhurst.

The Dallas Morning News highlights a release from the campaign of Glenn Addison, a funeral home director waging a long-shot bid. Addison attacks Cruz's campaign for allegedly posting "vicious" attacks on Cruz's opponents in the comments section of news reports and political blogs. The release also includes an attached document that, among other things, contains photos of the "Cruz estate" -- a large house that Cruz and his wife reportedly used to own.

This isn't the first time Addison has taken a shot at Cruz, according to the Dallas Morning News:

Addison won't be more than a bit player in the GOP nomination fight, but his attacks on Cruz point to what could be a new problem for the campaign. Up until this point, Cruz, who is making his first run for political office, has been faced with two main objectives: To make the case that Dewhurst is not a true conservative and to introduce himself to Texas voters. But soon the Cruz campaign may be faced with another task: fending off attacks leveled at him.

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker wasn't at President Obama's visit to Master Lock in Milwaukee on Wednesday, but he did greet the president at the landing of Air Force One. From the Washington Post's David Nakamura's White House pool report:

"Governor Walker will be greeting the President on the tarmac but he will not be attending the event at Master Lock. The Governor is still recovering from a nasty case of the flu," Walker spokesman Cullen Werwie said in advance of the president's landing in Wisconsin.

PHOTO: Susan Walsh/AP

This Tuesday development from Texas is stands to make life a little more difficult for Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, the frontrunner in the Texas Senate race. The AP:

No one's surprised that the primary is likely to be pushed back a second time (it was originally slated for March). A Senate primary that coincides with a presidential primary that matters would mean higher turnout, benefiting the frontrunner in the Senate race. If the state holds its primary after the GOP White House race is decided, turnout will be lower, something that would likely help underdog Ted Cruz. It also gives Cruz more time to build his name ID.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. President Obama makes his return to Wisconsin after a long absence, Sheldon Adelson appears ready to take on Santorum, and Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa is raising his profile. Here's today's rundown:

7) Today, Democratic National Committee Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz will nominate Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa to chair the 2012 Democratic National Convention.

6) Here's an electoral development in Utah you don't see every day. The Salt Lake Tribune:

5) A judge has dismissed a sexual harassment lawsuit against Rep. Alcee Hastings, D-Fla.

4) In his Against the Grain column today, Josh Kraushaar takes a closer look at the role of super PACs -- which actually help level the playing field for challengers and upstart candidates trying to keep pace with well-funded incumbents.

Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney all said they would eliminate porn if elected president, Conan O'Brien said on Tuesday.

"In a related story, President Obama has already been reelected," Conan joked.

Don't miss today's Must See Moment at 2:56 when you can listen to Gingrich's new loony campaign soundtrack.

Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, leads Republican Treasurer Josh Mandel 48-35 percent in a new Quinnipiac poll of the Ohio Senate race released on Wednesday morning.

Brown has held a consistent double-digit advantage in Quinnipiac's surveys of the race dating back to May of 2011, when he led Mandel 45-31 percent. In the previous poll, conducted in January, Brown led Mandel 47-32 percent.

Mandel, the 34-year-old Republican, has turned heads following a string of impressive fundraising quarters, but he is still largely unknown to Ohio voters. HIs fav/unfav split is 16/12 percent, with 71 percent saying they have not heard enough about him to form an opinion. Brown's fav/unfav split is 41/26 percent.

Forty-seven percent of voters approve of the job Brown is doing as senator while 34 percent disapprove. Brown's high water mark came in September of 2011, when 52 percent approved and 31 percent disapproved.

While Brown's approval rating is identical to President Obama's in the poll, 48 percent of voters disapprove of the job Obama is doing as president.

The poll of 1,421 registered voters was conducted from Feb. 7-12 and carries a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points.

Republican Attorney General Rob McKenna leads Democratic Rep. Jay Inslee 45 percent to 36 percent in a new Elway Poll of the Washington governor's race.

McKenna, who has carefully cultivated a moderate profile in the blue state, also leads Inslee among independents, 49 percent to 24 percent. McKenna flexes a little cross party-appeal in the poll as well, taking the support of 13 percent of Democrats to Inslee's 3 percent GOP support.

Washington has not elected a Republican governor since 1980, and given the decidedly Democratic tilt of the state as a whole, winning during a presidential year is going to be an uphill climb for the Republican. But McKenna represents the best chance in years for a gubernatorial upset and even outpaced President Obama in the state in 2008, when he was running for reelection as attorney general.

There is still plenty of time for each side to define one another. Pollster Stuart Elway notes in the polling memo that the candidates were "less well-known than expected," with 56 percent of voters having an impression of McKenna and 51 percent having an impression of Inslee.

The poll of 405 registered voters was conducted from Feb. 7-9 and carries a margin of error of +/- 5 percent.

I wrote on Monday that the back-and-forths over outside spending we're seeing in several races can be easily broken down along the lines of self-interest. A glance at the cross-tabs of a new poll out on Tuesday provides some more evidence that such strategic plays are not intended to move the needle in the electorate, and are merely maneuvers to gain the high-ground, financially.

Despite all of the noise about the influence of outside groups and the agreement Republican Sen. Scott Brown and Democrat Elizabeth Warren signed in Massachusetts, likely voters in the latest MassINC poll don't feel that if groups supporting their preferred candidate are running ads, it would make them more or less likely to support that candidate.

When asked about the impact of third party groups that are supporting their preferred candidate running negative ads, majorities of both Brown and Warren supporters said it would make no difference. Sixty-seven percent of Brown supporters and 61 percent of Warren supporters said it wouldn't have an impact on their vote while only about a quarter of the supporters of each said it would make them less likely to support their preferred candidate.

Sometimes, the lack of an endorsement says more than an affirmative one.

That was the case in Indiana for many months, as the Club For Growth, a devoted opponent of Republican Sen. Richard Lugar, refused to get behind his only declared Republican opponent, state Treasurer Richard Mourdock. That changed on Tuesday when the fiscally conservative group finally got behind the challenger, exactly 12 weeks before the May 8 primary.

In a National Review piece published on Tuesday, Club President Chris Chocola, a former congressman from Indiana, blasts Lugar's record on spending and announces the endorsement of Mourdock, whom he barely mentions.

"Thankfully, there are very few Republicans left who still support earmarks. Regrettably, one of the remaining few is 35-year Indiana senator Richard Lugar," writes Chocola. "He continues to stand in favor of earmarks to this day. Recently, Lugar was one of only thirteen Republicans to join Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid in voting against a permanent ban on earmarks. That was the final straw for the Club for Growth PAC, which has now endorsed Lugar's conservative challenger, Indiana state treasurer Richard Mourdock."

The Club had already been advertising on television against Lugar, but until now, hasn't embraced Mourdock. It's not difficult to see why. Mourdock has yet to prove that he can be a formidable challenger against Lugar. Quarter after quarter, his fundraising his been lackluster, forcing him to rely on small, targeted cable TV buys.

Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney loves Valentine's Day so much, David Letterman joked, "he sent a dozen long-stem roses to his money...that's right, his money."

Don't miss today's Must See Moment at 2:02 when Jay Leno presents the worst haircuts in Congress:

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Romney and his allies begin a big push in Michigan, while Santorum will pitch his economic message there. Meanwhile, another poll shows a tight race in Massachusetts, while Republicans look like they have their man to run for governor of New Hampshire. Here's today's rundown:

7) Proposals to curb the influence of outside groups have surfaced in yet another race: Illinois' 8th District Democratic primary, where Tammy Duckworth and Raja Krishnamoorthi traded challenges.

6) And how's this for some irony: Huffington Post reported that a letter in Massachusetts from Sen. Scott Brown proposing an agreement to curb outside groups' influence over the airwaves which was sent out to reporters as a Microsoft Word document, was authored by Sean Cairncross, an NRSC lawyer, according to the electronic signature.

5) And it's a close race in the Bay State: Sen. Scott Brown, R-Mass., and his well-financed Democratic challenger, Elizabeth Warren, are neck-and-neck in a new poll commissioned by Boston-based WBUR-FM. According to the poll, conducted by MassINC, Warren leads Brown, 46 percent to 43 percent, within the poll's margin of error. That's worrisome news for Brown, not just trailing his challenger early but only hitting 43 percent in the survey - well below the 50 percent mark.

Brown remains popular in the heavily-Democratic commonwealth, boasting solid approval ratings. Ultimately, that may not be enough.

4) Republican John Stephen, the 2010 nominee against Gov. John Lynch won't run in the open seat gubernatorial race this year. Neither will State Board of Education Chair John Lyons.

That leaves the GOP race -- for now at least -- to Ovide LaMontagne and conservative activist Kevin Smith. LaMontagne is a significant favorite in this race, which with the absence of a more centrist Republican in the field, could turn into a heated battle of which candidate can out-conservative the other.

12:57 p.m. CORRECTION: The previous version of this post incorrectly identified Scott Beason's elected position. He is a state senator.

A new primary poll from Alabama's 6th District shows Republican Rep. Spencer Bachus ahead in the first leg of his reelection race. But the poll also reveals the House Financial Services Committee chairman's vulnerability to his banking industry connections and recent insider trading allegations.

Bachus leads his closest Republican challenger 63 percent to 17 percent, according to the survey conducted on behalf of the Campaign for Primary Accountability, an anti-incumbent super PAC. Yet a follow-up question suggests Bachus's support is soft one month before Alabamans go to the polls.

Days before an ethics investigation into possible insider trading offenses by Bachus hit the headlines, callers read two statements to poll respondents about the veteran congressman, highlighting his connections to Wall Street. After respondents heard those statements, Bachus's primary support dropped under the halfway mark, to 44 percent, while GOP state Sen. Scott Beason bumped up to 21 percent, with 23 percent undecided. The statements:

The drop in Bachus's numbers after respondents heard those statements does not represent the current state of the race, but it is a successful message test for his opposition. The insider trading investigation was not specifically tested in the statements -- the poll was conducted before news of the ethics investigation broke -- but it hardly matters. Replacing the allegation that Bachus enriched his campaign account via banking connections with the allegation that he enriched himself won't do Bachus any favors as the Republican primary enters its stretch run.

The Indiana GOP Senate primary will take place exactly 12 weeks from tomorrow. Treasurer Richard Mourdock has yet to make a major dent in the race against Sen. Richard Lugar, but the contest is far from decided with three months left on the clock. Here are three developments from the day that are worth a closer look:

-- New numbers from Lugar: The Lugar campaign released the results of an internal poll, conducted by National Research Inc., that showed the incumbent leading Mourdock 55 percent to 30 percent.

The survey of 600 likely GOP primary voters was conducted from Feb. 8-9 and carries a margin of error +/- 4.0 percentage points.

-- Personnel Change: The poll release was noteworthy for the more than just its numbers. As Politico notes, the Lugar campaign had formerly been using American Viewpoint and is now using National Research. Interestingly, National Research has also done polling before for the Club for Growth, which is no Lugar fan. Lugar adviser David Willkie did not immediately respond to request for comment about the change in pollsters.

-- Another small buy from Mourdock: Mourdock is spending just $45,000 on a Fox News cable buy to run his latest TV ad during the next two weeks. The 30-second spot casts the incumbent as a wasteful spender.

Mourdock continues to make smaller-scale, targeted buys when it comes to doing TV. A large part of that is his underwhelming fundraising. He doesn't have the resources to make huge statewide buys given the struggles he's experienced raising money.

It's been a rocky few weeks for North Carolina Democrats with an eye on the seat being vacated by Gov. Bev Perdue. Several potentially formidable candidates (Roy Cooper, Erskine Bowles, Heath Shuler) took their names out of the running and former Rep. Bob Etheridge's campaign got off to a bumpy start. Now, a story about candidate and state Rep. Bill Faison's messy divorce has landed in the Raleigh News & Observer (note that Faison is not considered by most observers to be an upper tier candidate):

The next time you hear a candidate talk about shifting his or her posture toward the influence of outside groups, it's a pretty safe bet that, like most things in politics, the calculation is rooted much more heavily in self-interest than scrupulousness.

Take the game of one-upmanship going on in Montana right now. Democratic Sen. Jon Tester, armed with an almost 2-1 cash advantage over Republican Rep. Denny Rehberg, proposed an agreement last week to curb the influence of outside groups, even offering to abide by cash penalties in instances where allied groups boost their preferred candidates or slam the opposition in an ad.

In addition to his cash advantage, Tester is familiar with the influence wielded by powerful GOP-aligned outside groups like American Crossroads, which have been raising and spending money at a clip outpacing its Democratic counterparts so far this cycle.

Rehberg, meanwhile, returned serve with a counteroffer that raised the stakes a step further, decrying the influence of out of state donors, including PACs and lobbyists. The biggest recipient of lobbyist cash in the Senate? Tester, according to the Center for Responsive Politics.

The Montana proposals weren't even the first of their kind. In Massachusetts, a race where heaps of outside money had already begun pouring in last year, Republican Sen. Scott Brown and Democrat Elizabeth Warren both signed onto an agreement that seeks to curb the influence of outside group advertising. Brown made the first move, issuing a call to come to an agreement just two days after Warren dominated the news cycle, announcing her whopping $5.7 million fundraising haul in the final quarter of 2011.

State Sen. Steve Lathrop, whose name was floated by Democrats following former Sen. Bob Kerrey's decision not to run for retiring Democratic Sen. Ben Nelson's seat, announced on Monday that he won't run for the Senate either.

"I appreciate the encouragement I have received over the past several weeks from Nebraskans throughout the state," Lathrop said in a statement. "I gave this decision serious thought and based it on discussions with my family and on how I can best serve the people of Nebraska. After much consideration, I have decided to continue to focus on finding solutions to the problems facing our state."

For now at least, Lathrop's decision means the Democratic field features only Chuck Hassebrook, who sits on the University of Nebraska Board of Regents and is the executive director of the Center for Rural Affairs. Hassebrook would be a major underdog against either Republican Attorney General Jon Bruning or Treasurer Don Stenberg.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Romney wins a straw poll and a caucus but is forced to confront some tough headlines this morning. Meanwhile, a new poll shows Mazie Hirono is in control of the Hawaii Senate race, Ben Chandler catches a break in Kentucky, and Democrats land a candidate in the Nebraska Senate race. Here's today's rundown:

9) Rep. Donald Payne, D-N.J., is being treated for Colon Cancer. He said he expects a full recovery.

8) There is good news for Democratic Rep. Ben Chandler in the new congressional map signed by Gov. Steve Beshear (D) on Friday. The Lexington Herald-Leader:

7) Democrats will have a candidate -- albeit not a very high-profile one -- in the Nebraska Senate race: Chuck Hassebrook, who sits on the University of Nebraska Board of Regents and is the executive director of the Center for Rural Affairs, is running, the Omaha World-Herald reports. The paper also reports that state Sen. Steve Lathrop said he expected to make a decision on the race by today.

6) A new Hawaii Senate poll conducted by Ward Research shows Rep. Mazie Hirono in control of the Democratic primary. Hirono leads former Rep. Ed Case 56-36 percent. Former GOP Gov. Linda Lingle trails Hirono 57-37 percent in hypothetical general election matchup. The former governor trails Case 56-36 percent.

Saturday Night Live this weekend covered Mitt Romney's primary defeats, Arianna Huffington's thoughts on Rick Santorum's comments on women in combat and the controversial Chrysler commercial that had everyone talking after the Super Bowl.

"During Mitt Romney's speech following Tuesday's caucuses, he attempted to highlight his family's humble roots by emphasizing that his father was a carpenter," Seth Meyers said. "In fact, I believe that Romney's father actually built Mitt in his wood shop."

Don't miss today's Must See Moment at 1:21 when it's half time in America:

What we at The Hotline learned this week:

-- The Obama administration's about face over a controversial contraception mandate came after an outcry not only from the right and the Catholic Church, but from voices within the president's own party, as well. The writing was on the wall earlier in the week, when key Democratic Senate candidates were breaking with the White House over the issue. Senators up for reelection often serve as an early-warning system for presidential candidates, having an instinct of their constituents' feelings on hot button issues.

-- With former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum essentially conceding Arizona's Feb. 28 primary to former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, the former senator is left with only one opportunity -- Michigan's primary on the same day -- to pick up momentum (and delegates) heading into the Super Tuesday contests of March 6.

Michigan is Romney's home state, and therefore considered tough sledding for his opponents. But unlike Arizona, Michigan awards its delegates proportionally, so there is an incentive for Santorum to seek a strong second place finish. Michigan awards two delegates to the winner of each of the state's 14 congressional districts, and two more to the overall winner, for a total of 30. Romney should win at least 20 of those, but Santorum could claim a moral victory by walking away with 10. To do that, he'd need to win the socially conservative districts on the state's west side (MI-02, MI-03, MI-06) and the blue-collar districts in northern Michigan (MI-01, MI-04).

-- As Santorum and Romney battle it out in Michigan, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich has ceded to Santorum his position as the Romney alternative -- at least temporarily. Coming off a renewed surge by Santorum, Gingrich reiterated his plans at winning delegates during Super Tuesday spending this week campaigning in Ohio. Still, performing well in the state may be a tall order for Gingrich. The political landscape of the Buckeye state usually requires political hopefuls to make decisions based on geography and strong organization, and the expensive media market favors candidates with large campaign coffers. In manufacturing jobs, Ohio trails only California and Texas, but has 500,000 fewer manufacturing jobs than in its peak year of 1969 -- something that also favors Romney and Santorum over Gingrich.

Santorum's surprise sweep of three states on Tuesday coupled with Gingrich eying Super Tuesday will likely mean February, in addition to being a good month for Mitt Romney, is also shaping up as the month Santorum pulled ahead of Gingrich in the Romney-alternative stakes. Santorum will also have the opportunity to capitalize on his momentum this weekend, when he makes three Sunday show appearances.

-- It won't be surprising if additional Democratic Senate candidates outside Massachusetts and Montana try to strike agreements that limit outside ad expenditures. But it's worth noting that many Democrats elected in 2006 and 2008 actually owe their victories to independent expenditure campaigns, when the DSCC (under Chuck Schumer) was flush with cash and a great landscape. Senators Jon Tester, Jim Webb, and Claire McCaskill in 2006, and Mark Begich, Al Franken, and Jeff Merkley in 2008 each won narrow victories following a slew of tough DSCC TV ads run against the GOP senators they were challenging those years.

At a conference filled with speeches from the GOP presidential candidates and congressional leaders, it was a man who is fighting to keep his job as a state executive this year who delivered a campaign-mode keynote address on Friday night in Washington.

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, a polarizing national figure, spoke at the Conservative Political Action Conference's Ronald Reagan Banquet. He defended his barely year-old record -- which will be under heavy scrutiny in a nearly certain recall election later this year -- and warned that the stakes of his all-but-certain race will have national implications that will extend years into the future.

"If we fail -- and I'm not planning on it -- but if we were to fail, I think this sets aside any courageous act in American politics for at least a decade, if not a generation," Walker said.

Walker, the former county executive of Milwaukee, took office in early 2011, and shortly thereafter, unveiled his "budget repair bill," a measure that, among other things, curbed collective bargaining for public employees. Walker's legislation triggered protests by labor organizers, Democrats and liberal activists that shook Madison for weeks. The bill ultimately passed the Republican-led legislature and was signed into law by Walker later in the year.

"Collective bargaining is not a right. In the public sector, collective bargaining is an expensive entitlement," Walker said on Friday.

Updated at 8:10 p.m.

Rep. Mike McIntyre, D-N.C., won't run for governor, he announced in a statement on Friday. He will run for reelection to the House instead.

McIntyre's full statement:

McIntyre joins of sizable list of prominent Democrats who considered a bid, but ultimately opted not to run, including Attorney General Roy Cooper, Erskine Bowles, Rep. Heath Shuler and Charlotte Mayor Anthony Foxx.

White House Chief of Staff Jacob Lew will make his Sunday show debut in his new role: he'll be discussing President Obama's shift on contraception as well as the upcoming unveiling of the new budget with a "Full Ginsburg" of appearances on all the shows. Meanwhile, Face the Nation will host Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wisc., will be appearing on This Week to talk budget.

Former Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pa., will appear on three shows in the wake of CPAC. He'll be on Meet the Press, This Week and State of the Union. Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas will be making an appearance on Face the Nation. Former Alaska Republican Gov. Sarah Palin is heading over to Fox News Sunday.

On State of the Union, Sen. Joe Lieberman, I-Conn., will be on to talk about the developments in Syria.

Check out the full listings after the jump.

Tim Kaine broke with the Obama administration over the original version of its contraception mandate because of disagreement over the scope of the exemption policy, which Kaine said he saw as too narrow. The White House's Friday announcement that insurance companies will pay for contraception if religious employers object to paying for them brought praise from Kaine. It should have, as it relieves a tension point between Obama and Kaine and other Democratic Senate contenders. Kaine's statement:

2010 was a good election for conservatives. But 2012 needs to be even better.

That was the message Rep. Allen West, R-Fla., carried with him to the Conservative Political Action Conference on Friday. Known for his fiery speeches, the controversial Republican freshman's CPAC address was no exception.

"A new battle looms large in 2012," West said. "And now it is no time to sit back on our laurels feeling good about what we did on 2010."

Faced with a tough reelection bid of his own in Florida's 22nd District, West recently announced that he is switching to the new 18th District. Democratic businessman Patrick Murphy, who was running against West in the 22nd, followed West to the new 18th. In his speech, West kept the focus on broader principles, and didn't mention his own contest.

"Our goal this time must be even bigger -- to keep the House, to take the Senate and occupy the White House with conservatives," he said.

West has been a prolific fundraiser, consistently pulling in quarterly hauls that would make many Senate candidates jealous. He had $2.7 million in the bank at the end of 2011. Impassioned addresses like the one he delivered at CPAC keep his national donor base fired up.

Politics is personal? No, never.

A Senate majority means many things. For National Republican Senatorial Committee Vice Chair Carly Fiorina, the outcome of November's election could hit close to home.

"You know who the chairperson of the Environment and Public Works Committee is?" Fiorina asked the crowd during her Friday speech at the Conservative Political Action Conference.

The answer is Sen. Barbara Boxer, D-Calif., who defeated Fiorina by ten points in 2010.

"I couldn't beat her, but we could get her out of her chairmanship and get this gentleman in the chairmanship," Fiorina said, referring to Sen. Jim Inhofe, R-Okla., the committee's ranking Republican.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Day two of CPAC is set to kick off, with speeches by Romney and Walker in the works. Meanwhile, Hoekstra takes down his controversial ad from his website while Menendez wades into the Obama administration's controversial contraception decision. Here's today's rundown:

6) Former Rep. Pete Hoekstra's campaign has removed his controversial ad from his website.

5) Rep. Denny Rehberg, R-Mont., is co-sponsoring a bill that would immediately approve construction of the Keystone XL Pipeline, the Billings Gazette reports. In Montana, it's a smart political play, even if the bill does not ultimately pass.

4) Today is day two of CPAC, and Hotline On Call will continue to provide dispatches from the conference. Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker will headline the evening session with a 7:30 speech. The governor, who faces an all-but-certain recall election is expected to receive a very warm reception -- and the speech is another opportunity for him to pitch his policies before a national audience.

Late-night hosts were on the same wavelength on Thursday as both Jay Leno and David Letterman gave political figures mustaches. Watch to see who wore it better.

Meanwhile, Leno continued to rail against Mitt Romney's upset in primary contests this week. "Things are so bad for Mitt Romney -- he's now thinking about starting to talk to poor people!"

And don't miss today's Must See Moment at 2:27 when Newt Gingrich double downs on his moon colony plans.

Behind the paywall, we're taking an in-depth look at the races that will decide who controls the Senate next year, based on exit poll data from 2006, 2008 and 2010 -- including unreported breakdowns specially provided to Hotline by Edison Research.

The analysis found, as I wrote in National Journal last week, that two divergent forces are driving the race for the upper chamber: On one hand, Democrats will benefit because of higher minority turnout driven by the presidential race (senators running for re-election this year didn't have the presidential race at the top of the ticket in 2006). On the other hand, Republicans will benefit because white voters -- particularly those with college educations -- broke hard away from Democrats in 2010, and they still have a largely unfavorable view of President Obama.

That's thanks almost completely to the surge of minority voters who turned out to elect Obama. In 2006, minorities made up 21 percent of the electorate, according to Edison Research data. By 2008, when Obama's campaign poured millions into the state to turn out new or irregular voters, minorities made up 30 percent of the electorate -- a 9-point increase. Only Texas saw a larger increase in the influence of minority voters between 2006 and 2008.

Of course, 2012 is not 2008, and neither Democrats nor Republicans believe minority turnout will be as high as 30 percent of the electorate this year. But it could be close, and Allen's dismal performance among minority voters in 2006 should worry the GOP.

Virginia also showed a big education gap, a divide among white voters who graduated from college and those who didn't. In 2006, Allen beat Democrat Jim Webb by a small 53 percent to 47 percent margin among college-educated white voters. Allen stomped Webb among white voters without a college education by a much wider 66 percent to 34 percent margin.

A Quinnipiac University poll released this week shows largely the same story: Allen and Kaine are running close among college-educated white voters (Kaine leads by a statistically insignificant 47 percent to 45 percent), Allen is winning by 30 points (59 percent to 29 percent) among non-college whites, and Kaine is leading among non-white voters by an overwhelming margin (68 percent to 18 percent).

Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli gave a packed house at the Conservative Political Action Conference an energetic defense of federalism on Thursday. In the process, he previewed a theme that is sure to re-emerge in his 2013 gubernatorial campaign.

"I'm happy today that we can say we're a couple of years into people just being absolutely fed up," Cuccinelli said. "And that's good thing in this circumstance. That's a good thing. Today, the idea of federalism is re-emerge as a way to reign in the excesses of Washington."

Cuccinelli, the outspoken Republican gubernatorial candidate, is best known nationally for spearheading a lawsuit against the federal government over President Obama's health care law. At CPAC, Cuccinelli called the measure "one of the greatest legislative invasions of liberty in the lifetime of anyone in this room."

He also chastised the Obama administration for recently mandating that certain religious organizations offer contraceptive service coverage in their insurance plans. He said the decision is "assaulting our religious institutions."

Beyond the health care legal tussle, Cuccinelli also touted another fight he picked with the federal government.

"Even before that health care lawsuit, that was two months into my term as AG; one month in, we sued the EPA, which I've taken to calling the employment prevention agency," Cuccinelli said.

Cuccinelli faces Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling in what is expected to be a heated GOP primary next year.

Cuccinelli received the "Defender of the Constitution Award," on Thursday.

The aide who was injured alongside Rep. Gabrielle Giffords in a deadly rampage last year announced Thursday he will run to serve the remainder of her term.

In a statement, Ron Barber, Giffords's former district director, said he would put aside politics, as Giffords had done during her three terms in Congress.

"Our community needs someone who will put politics aside and solve problems for the people of Southern Arizona," Barber said in a statement announcing his candidacy. "My commitment is to be honest with the people of this district and help restore civility to our public life. My first priority won't be the next election -- but the next generation. That means balancing the budget the right way by protecting Social Security and Medicare, creating jobs, and securing our border."

Barber was shot in the face and leg in the January 2011 attack on Giffords at a constituent event in Tucson. The attack left six people dead and 19 injured.

Barber said Giffords and her husband, Mark Kelly, asked him to run in a special election to finish out her term. Giffords is expected to endorse Barber. Barber told reporters on a conference call Thursday that he hadn't decided whether to seek a full term under a newly-drawn map that makes the Tucson-based seat safer for Democrats.

New Mexico Republican Lt. Gov. John Sanchez officially ended his Senate campaign on Thursday, a move that is a big boost for former GOP Rep. Heather Wilson's bid.

"After much prayer, counsel with my family, and discussions with supporters, I have decided to end my campaign for the U.S. Senate, and continue to serve New Mexico as your Lt. Governor," Sanchez said in a statement on Thursday.

Sanchez has been running to the right of Wilson. His campaign has struggled to gain traction and his fundraising -- an early barometer of candidate momentum -- has lagged behind Wilson's pace.

Wilson was already the frontrunner in the GOP race. Sanchez's exit cements her position atop the field.

In 2008, Wilson was defeated in a nasty Senate primary by Rep. Steve Pearce, who mounted a campaign on Wilson's right that cast her as too far to the left.

Sen. Mike Lee, R-Utah, is backing Republican Clark Durant in the Michigan Senate race, but says former Rep. Pete Hoekstra's, R-Utah, controversial Super Bowl ad had nothing to do with his decision.

"That didn't play into my decision," Lee told Hotline On Call in an interview on Thursday at day one of the Conservative Political Action Conference. "I had decided before I became aware of that ad that Clark Durant was the guy I was going to endorse in Michigan."

Lee said he has not even seen the ad, but has heard negative things about it.

"To be honest I haven't seen it," Lee said. "I've heard a lot about it. And one of the things I've heard about it was that it was produced by the same individual who generated the 'I'm not a witch' ad from Christine O'Donnell. ... I'm told that this lives up to the same reputation as that advertisement and that it is bad."

Fred Davis produced both Durant's Hoekstra's ad and the O'Donnell spot referenced by Lee.

Michigan was not the only Senate race Lee waded into on Thursday. He also endorsed Sarah Steelman in the Missouri Senate race. Steelman in an underdog who has struggled to raise money and gain traction in the GOP race.

South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint's Senate Conservatives Fund is looking at involving himself in the Michigan Senate primary, he confirmed to Hotline On Call in a brief interview on Thursday.

"We're looking at Michigan," DeMint said when asked directly whether he was looking at the Senate race.

Former Rep. Pete Hoekstra is the frontrunner in Michigan's Republican race but Clark Durant is running to the right of the former House Intelligence Committee chairman.

DeMint's expression of interest in the race comes the same day that Utah Sen. Mike Lee, another conservative favorite, told Hotline On Call that he would be endorsing Durant.

Both Michigan Senate candidates released TV ads on Thursday.

"Congressman Pete Hoekstra claims to know a lot about China. Does he know the Chinese word for hypocrisy? Hoekstra attacks Debbie Stabenow for excessive spending. But like Stabenow, Hoekstra voted to increase the debt ceiling and spending by trillions of dollars," says the narrator of Durant's spot.

Durant's ad is a response to a controversial TV spot Hoekstra launched on Super Bowl Sunday, which casts Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow as a big spender and includes an Asian woman who uses a stereotyped broken-English accent. The ad has drawn much controversy since it aired.

Hoekstra released a second TV ad on Thursday that doubles down on his criticism of Stabenow's spending but this time, the only person who speaks in the ad is Hoekstra himself.

When asked for his reaction to Hoekstra's first ad, DeMint declined to comment.

CORRECTION: Matheson is running in Utah's 4th District; Biggert is running in Illinois' 11th District. A previous version of the story misidentified the districts both were running in.

Here's a bit more on the major congressional race ad buy from the Chamber of Commerce that we flagged in Hotline Sort this morning:

In total, the Chamber is targeting eight Senate races and 12 House races.

The Chamber is playing a lot of offense in the Senate, where the group is primarily running ads in states that represent strong GOP pickup opportunities. North Dakota, Montana and Missouri, three top pickup chances, are on the list, as are Hawaii, Virginia, Wisconsin and Ohio.

Ad anti-Kaine ad in Virginia slams former Democratic National Committee chairman Tim Kaine for his support for president's health care law. A pro-George Allen ad touts Allen's support for tax cuts.

The ads can be viewed here.

The Chamber is only defending one Senate Republican incumbent: Indiana's Richard Lugar, who finds himself in a pitched GOP primary against state Treasurer Richard Mourdock. "Lugar fights for energy jobs and America's energy security, even when a president gets in his way," the narrator of the pro-Lugar spot says.

The 12 House races the group is targeting includes 7 seats held by Republican freshman. Notably, the Chamber is supporting Democratic Rep. Jim Matheson in Utah's 4th District race.

The Wall Street Journal reported that $10 million is being spent on the ad campaign, overall. After the jump we have the full list of races the Chamber is targeting. In some cases, the Chamber will be running ads for the Republican candidates, in others, the ads target the Democratic candidate. In Virginia, for example, both types of ads will be running.

Sen. Jim DeMint, R-S.C., hopes to add a handful of Republican Senate candidates to the list of endorsements his Senate Conservatives Fund political action committee has made this cycle, he said on Thursday.

"Hopefully, we'll have four or five more" upcoming, DeMint said in a speech that kicked off the three-day Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington.

DeMint also touted the four Senate candidates -- Josh Mandel in Ohio, Ted Cruz in Texas, Mark Neumann in Wisconsin and Don Stenberg in Nebraska -- his political action committee has already endorsed, and urged the audience to support them.

Even the topic of the Super Bowl made it into DeMint's address, as he used the game to illustrate a point about working with Democrats in Washington.

"[The Giants] weren't cooperating with Tom Brady," DeMint said.

"The two teams had different goals; the Patriots were there to beat the Giants," he said.

"Compromise works well in this world when you have shared goals," he added. "We don't have shared goals with the Democrats."

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. The Chamber of Commerce makes a major play in congressional races, President Obama's team expresses some new optimism about the economy, Clark Durant will release a TV ad in Michigan and Santorum says his fundraising his ticked up. Here's today's rundown:

8) CPAC kicks off this morning in Washington. Hotline On Call will be on-site, with dispatches and tidbits over the next three days. Check out the full speaking schedule here.

7) Former Kentucky Ag. Commissioner (and 2011 Lt. Gov. nominee) Richie Farmer has returned seven rifles to the state.

6) Anything you can do I can do better: Democrat Patrick Murphy announced that he is going to challenge Republican Rep. Allen West in Florida's new 18th District.

5) Rick Santorum said on Wednesday that he raised almost $1 million in 24 hours.

4) Republican Clark Durant will continue to hammer former Rep. Pete Hoekstra on Thursday over his controversial TV ad. He'll appear at a press conference with a county commissioner who is switching her support. More notable: He will also be unveiling a new TV ad, the subject of which has not yet been released. Stay tuned to Hotline On Call for more on this story later this morning.

3) That Sen. Debbie Stabenow, D-Mich., money bomb we brought to your attention earlier this week is up to $88,000 as of Wednesday afternoon. So the campaign has not yet reached its $144,000 goal.

Late-night hosts rehashed Tuesday's primary results last night.

"I haven't seen Rick Santorum so happy since they cancelled Will and Grace," Jay Leno joked about the former Pennsylvania Senator's victories.

"It was a big, big setback for the Mitt Romney campaign. Even the very poor said they felt bad for him," David Letterman quipped.

Don't miss today's Must See Moment at 1:41 when you can see what President Obama was really aiming for when he launched a marshmallow across the State Dining Room at the White House science fair:

Senators up for re-election often serve as an early-warning system for presidential candidates, having an on-ground instinct of their constituents' feelings on an issue. And based on yesterday's reactions from senators and Senate candidates to the Obama administration's policy requiring some religious institutions to provide coverage for prescription contraceptives, President Obama faces plenty of road mines ahead.

A compromise on the issue could still be possible, an aide to the president has signaled. In the meantime, here's a closer look at how members of the president's own party running for the Senate in 2012 have been navigating the issue this week:

Former Democratic National Committee Chairman Tim Kaine:

The key Democratic break with Obama came from his close ally and former DNC chairman Tim Kaine, running for the Senate in a hotly-contested battleground. Kaine, whose Catholic devotion is a major part of his biography, said he favored additional religious exemptions for Catholic employers.

Here's what Kaine said in an interview taped on Tuesday with WHRV: "I think the White House made a good decision in including a mandate for contraception coverage in the Affordable Care Act insurance policy but I think they made a bad decision in not allowing a broad enough religious employer exemption. This is something that's been talked about a lot today and I have definitely expressed my grave concerns to the White House about that. I support the contraception mandate but there should be a religious employer exemption that is broader than the one they proposed."

Kaine isn't breaking with Obama on the decision to include contraception in the list of preventative services insurance companies need to cover; but he is rejecting the president's decision not to provide a broader exemption for religious organizations.

It's a notable break for a candidate who, for the most part, has stood with the president on most major decisions. It's also one of the clearest signs that the administration might have a made a political miscalculation with its decision. After all, it's not every day that a major Senate candidate in a key swing state Obama needs to win, who has stood with him on almost everything else, breaks with him.

Sen. Bob Casey, D-Pa.:

Casey, who opposes abortion rights, sent a letter to Obama last week urging him to "correct this decision."

Updated at 5:56 p.m.

Massachusetts may be thousands of miles away from Montana, but Democratic Sen. Jon Tester is proposing something strikingly similar to an agreement Elizabeth Warren and Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown have struck, sending a letter to Republican Rep. Denny Rehberg on Wednesday that proposes curbing the influence of third party advertising in the Senate race.

And from a strategic perspective, Tester's proposal is a smart play.

"Let's reject and work to keep all third-party radio and TV ads about you and me out of Montana. Let's reject efforts by outside groups to undermine Montana's tradition of elections decided by people -- not corporations," Tester writes in the letter to his Republican challenger.

Despite the inability of candidates to coordinate with outside groups, the Massachusetts agreement imposes penalties; Tester also proposes fines in his letter.

"If a third-party organization that funds or broadcasts any TV or radio advertisement that specifically mentions or references either candidate, through narration text or messages, then the opposite candidate must pay a one-time penalty equal to the cost of the ad buy to the Montana charity of charities of the penalized candidate's choice. The penalty shall not be greater than $250,000 and must come from a candidate's campaign coffers," writes Tester.

While the similarities are hard to overlook, Tester said that he did not use the Bay State document as a model for his own proposal.

"To be honest with you, I've never read that agreement," he said on a conference call with reporters.

Rehberg's campaign was noncommittal. "This is certainly an interesting proposal by Senator Tester," said Erik Iverson, Rehberg's campaign manager. "We are going to give it a close look and we will respond in due course."

Strictly strategically speaking, Tester's proposal makes sense for three reasons.

First, both Democratic and Republican-aligned outside groups have played and are expected to continue to play in the Montana race, which is shaping up as one of the cycle's closest contests. That said, Republican-aligned outside groups have been dramatically outraising Democratic groups so far and were major force in the 2010 election cycle.

A major national ally of Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker is dropping six figures in the Badger State on a significant TV ad buy meant to present the governor's controversial budget repair measure in a positive light in advance of a likely recall election.

The Americans For Prosperity Foundation, AFP's 501c3 sister origination, is spending $700,000 to air the ad -- which has run before in a smaller buy in Wisconsin the last few months -- this week along with a second ad next week, AFP spokesman Levi Russell confirmed.

The Plum Line first reported on the ad buy.

The next spot "will be a similar effort and a similar message," Russell said.

Michigan Republican Party Chairman Bobby Schostak came to former Rep. Pete Hoekstra's defense at a meeting with reporters in Washington on Wednesday. Schostak's response to Hotline On Call's question about his reaction to the spot:

A careful response, if not a wholly surprising one, considering that as chairman of Hoekstra's party in the state, he's not in a position to give a much different answer.

Rep. Judy Chu, D-Calif., the first Chinese-American woman elected to Congress, blasted Michigan Senate hopeful Pete Hoekstra today for what some have called a "racist" ad that ran during the Super Bowl.

The ad shows an Asian woman, using a fake accent, thanking Sen. Debbie Stabenow, D-Mich., for sending American jobs overseas.

"I was offended. I was stunned," the California Democrat said on CNN's Starting Point. "I couldn't believe that there would be somebody that would run such a violent, hateful ad."

Chu said the ad stereotyped Asian-Americans, and could lead to anti-Asian sentiments.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Santorum scores a surprise sweep, but can he use it to turn his overall fortunes around? Meanwhile, allies of President Obama eye the support of a big-time donor, Hoekstra's ad riles Inouye and Kaptur hits the airwaves in Cleveland. Here's today's rundown:

7) Rob Johnson, Rick Perry's presidential campaign manager, is now going to run a pro-David Dewhurst super PAC.

6) Good news out of Nevada for former Democratic Rep. Dina Titus: state Sen. Ruben Kihuen dropped his 1st District bid. Kihuen had been badly outmatched on the fundraising front.

5) Is it possible that New York City Comptroller John Liu has successfully weathered the controversy over financing of his 2009 campaign for his current position? Authorities continue to investigate whether Liu's campaign illegally used straw donors to bankroll his campaign three years ago, but a new Quinnipiac University poll out Wednesday shows a slight uptick in Liu's approval rating over the past two months. Forty percent of New York City voters approve of the job Liu is doing (up from 38 percent in December), while 29 percent disapprove (down from 35 percent). Despite the controversy, the embattled former Queens councilman insists he still intends to run for mayor, but the Quinnipiac poll shows other likely Democratic candidates -- City Council Speaker Christine Quinn and Public Advocate Bill de Blasio -- with better job-approval scores.

4) Rep. Marcy Kaptur, D-Ohio, is spending $90,000 to run a positive TV spot in the Cleveland area and has reserved even more time down the road. The Cleveland Plain-Dealer:

Kaptur is facing off against Democratic Rep. Dennis Kucinich in the 9th District. The primary is on March 6.

Late-night hosts took aim at Mitt Romney's massive fortune while Michelle Obama and Jimmy Fallon battled to raise awareness for the "Let's Move!" campaign

Romney connects with poor people "the same way Tom Brady connects with Wes Welker," David Letterman joked.

Don't miss today's Must See Moment at 1:57 when President Obama demonstrates how he was inspired by the Super Bowl commercials.

Updated at 1:14 p.m.

A new Quinnipiac University poll out early Wednesday continues a popular trend: former Democratic National Committee Chairman Tim Kaine and former GOP Sen. George Allen are still neck-and-neck in the race to succeed Sen. Jim Webb, D-Va.

The poll shows Kaine leading Allen, who lost the Senate seat to Webb six years ago, by statistically-insignificant one point, 45 percent to 44 percent. Twelve percent of voters say they would vote for another candidate, are undecided or would not vote at all.

Each candidate cleans up among members of their own respective parties -- Kaine takes 90 percent of Democrats, while Allen holds 89 percent of Republicans -- and Kaine leads by a scant, four-point margin among independents. Among those voters with a college degree, Kaine leads by 15 percentage points, while Allen leads among those without a degree by 7 points.

This is the fifth time since June of last year that Quinnipiac has tested the Senate race, and they have yet to find either candidate leading by more than two percentage points (Allen led Kaine in a mid-December poll, 44 percent to 42 percent). Additionally, a poll from Mason-Dixon Polling & Research shared with Hotline On Call last month showed the two candidates dead even.

What's in a Federal Election Commission filing? If you're former North Dakota Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp, the answer is a whole lot of money from political action committees.

Democrats have touted Heitkamp's potential as a prolific fundraiser and aggressive campaigner in her bid to replace retiring Sen. Kent Conrad. But more than a quarter of the money Heitkamp raised in her first six weeks as a candidate came from Washington Democrats, their campaigns and their PACs.

Heitkamp received $110,000 in leadership PAC donations, including $10,000 each from Sens. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Barbara Boxer (D-CA), and another $12,000 in Senate candidate committee donations. Heitkamp raised a total of $450,000 over the last three months.

Updated at 3:27 p.m.

Rep. Sue Myrick, a nine-term North Carolina Republican, won't seek a tenth term this year, she said in a posting on her Facebook page Tuesday afternoon.

"After thoughtful discussion with my family, I have decided not to run for another term in Congress," Myrick said in the statement.

Myrick is the seventh Republican to say she will retire from politics this year and the 33rd member overall to announce the end of her career in Congress. First elected in the Republican sweep of 1994, she serves as chairwoman of the Select Committee on Intelligence's Terrorism, HUMINT, Analysis and Counterintelligence subcommittee.

After redistricting, Myrick's new Charlotte-area district would remain a safe Republican seat. Sen. John McCain won the district with 54 percent of the vote, while President George W. Bush won the new seat with 64 percent in 2004.

Myrick, a former Charlotte mayor who lost a race for U.S. Senate in 1992 before running for Congress, never faced serious Democratic opposition during her time in the House.

A super PAC that will raise and spend millions on behalf of House Democrats will borrow top party leaders for a kickoff fundraiser tonight on Capitol Hill, just a day after President Obama grudgingly admitted his campaign needs assistance from outside groups to keep pace with Republican fundraising efforts.

House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi, whip Steny Hoyer, assistant Democratic Leader Jim Clyburn, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chairman Steve Israel and 54 other Democratic members are listed on the invitation to the fundraiser for the House Majority PAC at Sonoma, the wine bar just a few blocks from the House office buildings. Hosts are asked to contribute $5,000, sponsors $2,500 and individuals $1,000.

While super PACs are permitted to raise and spend unlimited sums, federal candidates and officeholders may not solicit more than $5,000 in contributions to those PACs.

National Journal's Billy House reports that former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, D-Ariz., will announce as early as Wednesday that she'll support her former aide, Ron Barber, in the special election to fill her seat:

See the full story on Nationaljournal.com.

Updated at 11:01 a.m.

Former Democratic Sen. Bob Kerrey won't run for the Senate in Nebraska, he announced on Tuesday, a decision that all but assures Republicans will pick up the seat vacated by retiring Democratic Sen. Ben Nelson.

"I have given the decision of becoming a candidate for the U.S. Senate very serious thought and prayer. For many reasons I nearly said yes. In the end I choose to remain a private citizen. To those who urged me to do so, I am sorry, very sorry to have disappointed you. I hope you understand that I have chosen what I believe is best for my family and me," Kerrey said in a statement.

The AP first reported Kerrey's decision.

The former governor and senator, who has spent the last decade living in New York City, publicly flirted with a bid during the the past month, traveling to the Cornhusker State as he considered a political comeback. His high name ID from his time as a statewide official would have given Democrats their best hope of holding a seat at serious risk of slipping into the hands of Republicans.

Meanwhile, national and state Republicans stood ready to pounce with criticism of Kerrey's time outside of the state and his stances on cap and trade and health care, which they were prepared to cast as leftward of Nelson's.

"Kerrey's decision to stay in New York is a blow to the Democrats' hopes of holding their Senate majority and reiterates why we believe Nebraskans will elect a fiscally-responsible, conservative Republican Senator next fall," National Republican Senatorial Committee spokesman Brian Walsh said in response to Kerrey's announcement.

Democrats, who have a limited statewide bench, are now left without a top candidate for the race. The names being mentioned in Democratic circles include state Sen. Steve Lathrop and Chuck Hassebrook, who serves as executive director of the Center for Rural Affairs. However, neither is as well-known as Kerrey.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. President Obama's reelection team will help the fundraising efforts of Priorities USA as it returns $200,000 bundled from the family of a Mexican fugitive. Hoekstra raises money off his campaign's controversial ad, the New Hampshire gubernatorial candidates are largely unknown and another member of the state assembly steps up in New York's 9th District. Here's today's rundown:

7) Democrat Rory Lancman plans to announce today that he will challenge Republican Rep. Bob Turner in New York's 9th District, the New York Times reports. Lancman's position? New York state Assemblyman. Something to keep in mind, as in every contested Empire State special House election during Barack Obama's presidency, the candidate serving in the state legislature lost.

6) A new WMUR/Granite State poll shows that most voters don't know the declared New Hampshire gubernatorial candidates. Ovide Lamontagne is the best-known candidate in the survey, but even when it comes to him, 52 percent of adults don't know enough about him to have an opinion.

5) Former Michigan Republican Rep. Pete Hoekstra is raising money off of the controversial TV ad he began airing during the Super Bowl. "We dared to take on Debbie Stabenow and China, and the liberals are doing what they always do -- crying racism," Hoekstra writes in a note to supporters.

4) A big media story today: Walt Disney Co. and Univision are in discussions to create a new 24-hour, English-language cable-news channel, the Wall Street Journal reports.

Jay Leno says Mitt Romney opened the Super Bowl, singing his own rendition of America the Beautiful with country superstars Miranda Lambert and Blake Shelton.

Today's Must See Moment -- Check out the first clip to see what Mitt Romney is doing right now.

Rep. Ben Quayle, R-Ariz., announced on Monday that he will run for reelection in the new Arizona 6th District instead of the new 9th District, pitting him against fellow GOP freshman Rep. Dave Schweikert in a primary. The move was expected. Quayle's statement:

Schweikert's camp is out with a statement too, in which a spokesperson says "it's unfortunate" that Quayle "decided to abandon his own district to run" in Schweikert's.

That sets up the narrative for the initial skirmish between Quayle and Schweikert along the same lines that Democratic Reps. Steve Rothman and Bill Pascrell have fought in New Jersey. Most of the district was represented by Rothman under the old district lines, but his home was in another district and he had to "move" to set up the primary.

In the same way, both Quayle and Schweikert are right in laying claim to their seat. Two-thirds of the people in the new 6th District are currently represented by Quayle, but Quayle himself isn't one of them: His house is in the new 9th District. But the 9th is a toss-up seat, while the 6th leans strongly Republican, so it has been expected for months that Quayle would choose to run there.

Former Michigan GOP Rep. Pete Hoekstra is being castigated by both Democrats and Republicans for a controversial television ad that, while attacking Sen. Debbie Stabenow for her record on jobs, also caricatures Asian stereotypes. While Hoekstra's ad contains an underlying theme that has the potential to resonate with working-class voters, the delivery of the ad ensures that its presentation will overshadow its policy message.

And that's bad news for Hoekstra.

The ad, which has already been viewed on YouTube over 69,000 times, carries a fairly straightforward message that Republicans often use: Democratic-led spending has caused the country to borrow money from China, reducing America's standing in the process.

But the delivery has prompted some head-scratching, even within Hoekstra's own party.

"Your economy get very weak, ours get very good," says an Asian woman in the ad, with a deliberate touch of broken English. Stereotypical Chinese music plays in the background. Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow is referred to as Sen. "Spenditnow."

"I think this is a case where the consultant's art got in front of the message," said Michigan Republican strategist Greg McNeilly. "Because right now, the message is about the overstep on stereotypes."

The nonpartisan Asian & Pacific Islander American Vote group's Michigan chapter and a coalition of black ministers in Detroit both also criticized the ad, the AP reported.

The ad was produced by Fred Davis, a veteran Republican media strategist who is no stranger to head-turning commericials. Among his work, Carly Fiorina's bizarre "Demon Sheep" web video, Sen. John McCain's, R-Ariz., "Complete the Danged Fence" ad, ans Christine O'Donnell's "I'm You" spot. He also produced Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder's 2010 "One Tough Nerd" ad, a spot that, like Hoekstra's commercial, also aired during the Super Bowl.

Davis did not respond to a message seeking comment.

"It was just clumsy and stupid," said veteran Republican strategist Mike Murphy of the Hoekstra ad. "I get the argument of you do a buzzy ad and everybody talks about it and I thought the 'One Tough Nerd' spot was clever last time, for Snyder when he did the same tactic, but this thing is just hopelessly stupid." Murphy has donated money to Clark Durant, Hoekstra's main Republican opponent.

On Friday, I flagged Indiana Democratic gubernatorial candidate John Gregg's reaction to the state's new right-to-work law, which was opposed by labor and Democrats. In his statement, Gregg said it was time to "move beyond this divisive issue." As expected, that didn't sit well with some labor organizers and Democrats, prompting a clarification. The Evansville Courier & Press on Saturday:

More defense in an interview with the Indianapolis Star:

Any time you're explaining to the state's largest paper that you are not taking shots at someone or something, it's a pretty good sign that you've said something you shouldn't have said in the first place.

Jay Leno says Donald Trump backed Mitt Romney only after first promising to endorse Newt Gingrich.

So Trump promised loyalty and then broke his vow? Leno asks, "How does it feel, Newt?"

Today's Must See Moment -- Fast forward to 0:38 to see how Bill Maher knows Mitt Romney is the whitest man alive.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Romney wins big in Nevada while Gingrich vows to keep on campaigning. Meanwhile in Michigan, Hoekstra's Super Bowl ad generates controversy, Biden will stump for Menendez in New Jersey and Mike Rounds is considering a 2014 Senate run in South Dakota. Here's today's rundown:

8) Vice President Joe Biden will raise money for Sen. Bob Menendez, D-N.J., next month.

7) State Sen. Maggie Hassan is getting some competition in New Hampshire's Democratic gubernatorial primary: Former state Sen. Jackie Cilley is set to announce her campaign on Tuesday.

6) Another lousy fundraising quarter for GOP New Mexico Lt. Gov. John Sanchez's Senate campaign: he brought in just over $100,000 in the 4th quarter. The buzz that he may drop the Senate campaign for a House race is growing louder.

5) The Missouri redistricting map that was drafted by the GOP-controlled legislature was upheld by a circuit court judge on Friday. The decision can still be appealed to the Supreme Court.

As Roll Call notes, the news is bad for Democratic Rep. Russ Carnahan, who the map puts him into the same district as fellow Democratic Rep. William Lacy Clay.

4) Keep a close eye on this in South Dakota: Former GOP Gov. Mike Rounds said last week that he is giving a 2014 Senate run against Democratic Sen. Tim Johnson "serious thought," the Rapid City Journal reported. More evidence from the paper that a another statewide bid might be in the cards for the Republican:

What we at The Hotline learned this week:

-- If President Obama ends up winning a second term, this week will be one he points to as a turning point. The January jobs report exceeded expectations, and gave Team Obama hope they can actually run on their economic record, without having to run away from it. Mitt Romney's gaffe in speaking about poor Americans wasn't a game-changer in and of itself, but it underscored his vulnerabilities being perceived as the candidate of the upper class, detached from the economic concerns of the working class. And the Romney campaign's overall sense of caution was demonstrated when the candidate stood next to Donald Trump to receive the reality show host's endorsement - an endorsement Romney chose to embrace, Romney strategists say, because of their fear of Trump's wrath if they snubbed him.

Despite the slip-ups, Romney still would offer Obama a serious reelection challenge. But the 2012 race now looks like it could be a down-to-the-wire race, a la Bush in 2004, than one where the incumbent was hobbled by a weak economy, a la Bush in 1992.

-- If Texas Rep. Ron Paul is going to be a serious factor in securing delegates, this is his make-or-break month. The calendar is about as good as anything he could ask for after back-to-back last-place finishes in southern states: Caucuses in Nevada followed by Maine, Colorado and Minnesota. Strong second-place finishes could create the narrative that he is be best-equipped to keep Romney under the magic 1,144 number by the time the contest wraps up this summer. But what Paul really needs are wins. He needs to capture a plurality of the vote in at least five states in order to have his name read by the emcee during the Republican National Convention, potentially increasing his power and ability to influence the party platform.

_ This week was another reminder of the current campaign finance landscape, which is dominated by outside groups. Will-he-or-won't-he-keep-funding questions surrounded billionaire Sheldon Adelson -- who has bankrolled a pro-Newt Gingrich super PAC -- and received almost as national coverage as the Gingrich campaign itself. CREDO Mobile, which supports repeals of "Citizens United" is launching a super PAC that hits Republicans, and in Massachusetts, where a Brown/Warren agreement to curb the influence of outside groups garnered a lot of buzz, one pro-Warren group is already exploiting a gap in the document.

-- Senate Democrats should be pleased with the fundraising battle, halfway through the cycle. Frontrunners in contested Democratic primaries are pulling away, and in key races like Virginia and Montana, the party's candidates are building a cash on hand cushion. It's early, and the GOP has its share of breakout stars, such as Linda Lingle and Josh Mandel, but Democrats should be satisfied with where they are right now.

The focus will be on the Super Bowl and Nevada caucus results on the Sunday shows this weekend.

Former Speaker Newt Gingrich will once again make two television appearances the day after the Nevada caucus, going on both Meet the Press and Face the Nation. Former Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pa., will be on Fox News Sunday.

NBC is hosting the Super Bowl and politicians from the states involved will appear on Meet the Press. Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick, New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg, and Indiana Republican Gov. Mitch Daniels will talk about the big game and 2012.

Fox News Sunday has Virginia Republican Gov. Bob McDonnell as a Mitt Romneysurrogate and former Rep. JC Watts, R-Okla., as a Newt Gingrich surrogate to debate the race.

McDonnell and Maryland Democratic Gov. Martin O'Malley, as heads of their respective parties' governors associations, will talk the economy and 2012 on State of the Union.

Don't forget to tune Saturday night for the Nevada caucus results. MSNBC will have Chris Matthews anchoring special coverage from 8 p.m. to 10:30 p.m. CNN's Election Center will begin coverage at 7 p.m. with Wolf Blitzer, Anderson Cooper and John King headlining the coverage. FNC's coverage will culminate in a special one hour edition of Special Report with FNC's Bret Baier hosting.

Check out the full listings after the jump.

Since the Federal Election Commission's fourth quarter filing deadline passed Jan. 31, we've had the opportunity to look over the House freshman class's fundraising numbers. One of the narratives that has emerged after earlier quarters in 2011 was that a number of House GOP freshmen were having trouble raising money at levels befitting members of Congress. But the fourth quarter filings show that the average freshman is actually pulling in more cash than veteran colleagues.

From Oct. 1 to Dec. 31, the median Republican freshman banked about $165,000, while the median veteran GOP member raised about $147,000. Sure, there are plenty of fundraising flops in the freshman class. (Rep. David Rivera, R-Fla., springs to mind: Despite representing a swing district, he finished second-to-last in freshmen fundraising. All the other members at the bottom of the list represent safe territory.)

But in a sample as large as the freshman class, you're going to end up with some weak fundraisers. There might be a number of them, but there are far more freshmen in sound financial shape. And the majority of GOP freshmen are doing just as well or better than the rest of their conference.

Turning to the other party, the $147,000 average posted by GOP veterans is very close to the average Democratic member's fundraising quarter -- the median Democrat raised about $144,000. The minority party's fundraising usually suffers in comparison to the majority, but Democrats clearly did a good job keeping pace last quarter, capped off by the Democratic Congressional Committee's year-end fundraising victory over its GOP counterpart, an unusual feat for the minority committee.

Likely Democratic gubernatorial nominee John Gregg signaled in a statement this week that he is unlikely to make hay in the campaign over legislation signed by Republican Gov. Mitch Daniels that made Indiana a right-to-work state. WRTV:

Gregg's attempt to turn the page is constant with his effort to cultivate a centrist profile in advance of a likely general election showdown against Republican Rep. Mike Pence. In the interim, however, the cost could be some anger on the left and among labor leaders.

Not the story former Wisconsin Rep. Mark Neumann's Senate campaign wants to see, as he runs as a conservative who stands against the stimulus. The AP:

Neumann pushes back in the story, arguing that the grant began as a Bush administration-era tax credit. It's nonetheless fodder for his GOP opponents as he runs as a limited-government conservative with the backing of Sen. Jim DeMint and the Club for Growth.

A small surge in optimism from Republicans -- and pessimism from Democrats -- regarding control of the House and Senate after the 2012 elections has waned since September, according to the latest National Journal Political Insiders Poll. While Insiders in both parties are still predicting that Republicans will hold the House and retake the Senate, certainty about their predictions slid in the four months since they were last asked about congressional control.

Late-night hosts took aim at Donald Trump's endorsement of Mitt Romney for president on Thursday.

"Imagine that, a billionaire reaching out to a millionaire," Jay Leno joked. "The two classes, coming together."

Don't miss today's Must See Moment at 2:27 when Newt Gingrich makes an endorsement of his own:

The U.S. economy picked up 243,000 jobs in January as the unemployment rate dropped to 8.3 percent, the Labor Department reported on Friday. The surprise decrease boosts President Obama's election-year narrative of slow, steady economic improvement during his term.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected payrolls to grow by 140,000 (compared with 200,000 in the previous month) and the unemployment rate to hold steady at 8.5 percent. The January unemployment rate was the lowest since February, 2009. The number of jobs added in November and December was revised up in Friday's report by a collective 60,000.

Read more on NationalJournal.com.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Romney says he "misspoke" when he made his comments about the very poor, Rubio does research on himself, Etheridge is running for governor in North Carolina and Scott Brown's daughter was paid by his campaign to sing at events. Here's today's rundown :

7) To the surprise of ... no one: Rep. Dave Reichert, R-Wash., won't challenge Sen. Maria Cantwell, a source tells the Seattle Times. Reichert's name regularly surfaces in discussions about statewide campaigns, but as he did this year, he has always opted to stay put. No one expected him to run against the popular Cantwell this cycle, especially since his district was shored up for him following redistricting.

6) Sen. Scott Brown's, R-Mass., campaign has spent $9,500 since December of 2010 to pay his daughter to sing at three campaign events, the Boston Globe finds.

5) Nebraska Treasurer Don Stenberg's campaign is touting a GOP poll conducted by Basswood Research for Sen. Jim DeMint's, R-S.C., PAC that shows Stenberg trailing Attorney General Jon Bruning by just six points, 32 percent to 26 percent in the GOP Senate primary. DeMint has endorsed Stenberg in the race.

4) Former Michigan Rep. Pete Hoekstra, running for the Senate, is spending $75,000 to air a TV ad on Super Bowl Sunday.

Arizona businessman Wil Cardon came out swinging against his Senate primary opponent, Rep. Jeff Flake, R-Ariz., calling him "erratic" in an interview with Hotline On Call on the same day he released a web video attacking the congressman for going on junkets.

Cardon previously supported Flake, even donating to his campaign in past years. Asked why he would run for Senate against a man he once backed, Cardon cited Flake's broken term-limit pledge, saying that he doesn't think Flake has the "right skill set," and that it's time for a job creator and an outsider. Cardon also ticked off Flake's votes for increasing the debt ceiling and repealing "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" as issues where the two diverged.

He also called Flake "erratic," calling him a longtime "proponent of amnesty" before he decided to run for Senate and "change his tune." Flake's previous support for comprehensive immigration reform is considered a potential weak spot for him in a GOP primary. Cardon said he supported SB 1070, Arizona's controversial immigration law. "Unfortunately the federal government failed at their job and so now the states are trying to fill in the hole," he said.

Updated at 5:30 p.m.

Rep. Heath Shuler, D-N.C., will not seek reelection next year, he announced on Thursday. The retirement is bad news for Democrats seeking to regain control of the House. The seat is a likely pickup for Republicans and became at risk after redistricting.

"Last week I spent a lot of time at home with my family discussing the possibility of running for governor of North Carolina. This time of reflection and prayer gave us the opportunity to talk about the best course of action for us as a family moving forward. It was during this time that I reached the decision not to seek re-election to the U.S. House of Representatives in 2012," Shuler said in a statement.

Shuler's name was mentioned as possibility for the open seat governor's race in the Tar Heel state, in the wake of Democratic Gov. Bev Perdue's announcement last week that she will retire rather than seek reelection this year. But on Tuesday, Shuler ruled out a bid.

"This was not an easy decision. However, I am confident that it is the right decision," he said on Thursday about his decision not to run for reelection to the House.

Shuler is in his third term and he has repeatedly expressed concern about the lack of influence moderate and conservative Democrats had in the smaller Democratic caucus in this Congress. He ran for minority leader against Nancy Pelosi at the beginning of 2011.

Haywood County, N.C., Democratic Party Chairman Janie Benson said she is caught off-guard by the news.

"He didn't let me know. I'm surprised. I've very disappointed," said Benson, in an interview.

Consumer advocate and Harvard professor Elizabeth Warren and Sen. Scott Brown, R-Mass., recently signed an agreement that seeks to curb the influence of outside groups in the Senate race. Notably, neither received much in the way of PAC donations, at least as percentage of their overall hauls. The New York Times:

Tim Burns is leaving the Pennsylvania Senate race, the Republican announced on Thursday.

"As I said after Saturday's State Committee Meeting, the vote was the first battle in a long process to end the Casey/Obama agenda," said Burns in a statement. "It is a battle that I am committed to pursuing, but not one that I will be doing as a candidate for the United States Senate."

The state GOP endorsed businessman Steve Welch at last weekend's meeting. Burns, who ran for the House in the state's 12th District in 2010, finished third and initially vowed to press on in the race. But on Thursday, he bowed out, acknowledging the difficulty of running without the support of the party.

"When I began this process I put a premium on getting the endorsement of the Republican Party. I thought it was important and have always supported the party's right to make an endorsement," Burns said. "That's why I went to meet with so many leaders across the Commonwealth. Those leaders spoke on Saturday, and while it may not have been the outcome I hoped for, I have always known it would be difficult to carry on without their support."

Burns's exit leaves makes the race largely a three-way competition between Welch, businessman Tom Smith (who wrote his campaign a huge $4.25 million check in the 4th quarter) and former state Rep. Sam Rohrer. Welch and Smith have the ability to self-fund, while Rohrer, running a more conservative campaign, is a significant financial underdog.

Former White House chief of staff Erskine Bowles won't run for governor of his home state, a senior Democratic official confirmed Thursday, leaving his party without one of their better-known contenders.

Bowles had seriously considered running to replace Gov. Bev Perdue, who said last week that she would not seek a second term. The state Democratic Party had gone so far as to buy domain names in preparation for a possible bid.

The Democratic primary is still likely to be a crowded affair. Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton and state Rep. Bill Faison are already in the race, while ex-Rep. Bob Etheridge and Reps. Brad Miller and Mike McIntyre are still considering their own bids.

The eventual winner will start far behind former Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory, the likely Republican nominee. McCrory formally kicked off his long-expected bid on Tuesday with $2 million in the bank and polls that show him popular statewide.

Arizona investor Wil Cardon raised roughly $100,000 and pitched in over $400,000 of his own money, an adviser to the Republican Senate candidate told Hotline On Call on Thursday.

"We raised a little bit over $100,000 and self-funding was $400-450 [thousand]," Cardon adviser Michael Leavitt said on Thursday morning.

"All told it will be close to $600,000," Leavitt said, adding that Cardon's cash on hand total would be about "1.2, 1.3 [million]."

Cardon loaned himself over $800,000 during the 3rd quarter. He raised $402,000 during the same period.

Cardon's haul is well short of what Republican Rep. Jeff Flake raised during the 4th quarter. Flake raised $607,000 and ended the period with $2.56 million in the bank.

When asked how much of his own money he was willing to pitch into his campaign, Cardon would not specify. He's already poured in over a million dollars.

We'll have more later today from our interview with Cardon, who is in Washington.

There goes New Mexico Lt. Gov. John Sanchez's day. The Republican running to replace retiring Democratic Sen. Jeff Bingaman is going to spend his time trying to squash rumors that he'll quit his bid to run for an open House seat instead.

The wound is self-inflicted: A Sanchez staffer, Manuel Gonzales, told the Albuquerque Journal today that the campaign had held "informal conversations" about running for the Albuquerque-based House seat being vacated by Democratic Rep. Martin Heinrich, who's also seeking the Senate seat. Republicans lost their best potential candidate when businessman Jon Barela said he wouldn't run, and Gonzales said some New Mexico Republicans had pushed Sanchez to seek that seat instead.

Sanchez faces a difficult primary against front-running ex-Rep. Heather Wilson, who leads the GOP field both in polling and in fundraising. Wilson finished 2011 with about $1.1 million in the bank; Sanchez has yet to report his fundraising numbers, a hint that they're not going to come close to matching Wilson's haul.

But he's not quitting yet. "Sanchez has no interest in running for Congress," Corbin Casteel, Sanchez's lead consultant, told us in an email.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort and happy Groundhog Day (six more weeks of winter, says Punxsutawney Phil!). Menendez gets a new challenger in New Jersey, Indiana is now a right-to-work state, Cullen won't challenge Scott Walker and the NRSC outraises the DSCC in December. Here's today's rundown:

7) Indiana is now a right to work state following legislation signed by Gov. Mitch Daniels.

6) The National Republican Senatorial Committee outraised the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee in December, $4.5 million to $3.5 million, but both committees raised about the same amount in 2011.

5) Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett had about $415,000 cash on hand at the end of 2011, outpacing former Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk by a wide margin. Of course, Falk is likely to win the support of organized labor, so money should not be a major concern for her. Barrett has not yet announced whether he is running in the recall election.

4) Democratic state Sen. Tim Cullen won't be running for governor in the all-but-certain Wisconsin recall election. Cullen was not regarded as a top tier candidate and acknowledged that he cannot keep pace in the money chase against better-known competition.

Meanwhile, the state Government Accountability Board has posted the 1 million petitions signatures (in the effort to recall Walker) online.

Jon Stewart on Wednesday mocked Mitt Romney's remark that he's not "concerned about the very poor. We have a safety net there."

"Being in a net is bad, whether you're a butterfly or a fish...or a poor person. If you're in a net, something has gone terribly, terribly wrong," Stewart said.

Don't miss today's Must See Moment at 0:45 when Newt Gingrich let's loose on the state of Florida after his loss in the primary there:

Correction: this post previously misstated Berg's fundraising total. He raised $552,000.

2011 is in the rear-view mirror as the money chase grows clearer in several Senate races. The 4th quarter featured some breakout stars (Warren, Lingle) and busts (Mourdock, Shays). Without further ado, here is our list of 4th quarter Senate fundraising winners and losers:

Winners:

-- Elizabeth Warren: Warren had far and away the best fundraising quarter of any Senate candidate, including incumbents. The liberal superstar took in a whopping $5.7 million in the fourth quarter, ending the period with over $6 million on hand. Then, for good measure, she took in over a million more in a day with a "money bomb."

-- Former Hawaii Gov. Linda Lingle: Lingle took in over $1.7 million, easily outpacing Democratic Rep. Mazie Hirono, who had a $624,000 haul. And while Hirono has a real primary to contend with (against former Rep. Ed Case, who has yet to announce his fundraising numbers but has consistently raised less than Hirono), Lingle is free to stockpile her money for the general election.

-- Former U.S. Surgeon General Richard Carmona/Former North Dakota Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp: These two Democratic candidates began running partway through the quarter in races where Republicans are favored, and both impressed. Carmona raised $570,000 since starting in November, not much less than his potential general election foe, Rep. Jeff Flake (who took in $607,000). And Heitkamp raised just under than $500,000, close to Republican Rep. Rick Berg's's full quarter haul of $552,000.

-- Democratic frontrunners in contested primaries: Frontrunning Democrats in contested primaries put additional distance between themselves and their opponents during the quarter -- see the full post on them here (it's bad news for underdogs like Hector Balderas and Don Bivens).

Some senators with no obvious credible challenger nonetheless raised money at a brisk pace over the last quarter over the year. Here are five senators who aren't letting up despite the lack of clear threat:

-- Sen. Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., has $4.6 million on hand after raising $1 million in the quarter. Her closest competitor? Former GOP state Rep. Dan Severson, who raised $46,300 and has $34,000 on hand.

-- Sen. Maria Cantwell, D-Wash., raised $1.45 million in the final quarter of 2011, and has more than $4 million in the bank. Her only challenger is GOP state Sen. Michael Baumgartner, a freshman from Spokane who brought in just $120,000 in his first quarter in the race.

-- Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., raised close to $950,000 in the fourth quarter, and her campaign has $6.6 million in its coffers. She has no big-name challenger, and though GOP Rep. David Dreier has been floated as a potential candidate, his own $10,000 haul in the quarter suggests he's not preparing for a run.

-- Sen. Olympia Snowe, R-Maine, announced raising $629,000 during the fourth quarter, ending the year with $3.4 million in her war chest. Snowe has primary challengers, but neither has caught fire or demonstrated an ability to raise money. And she does have Democratic challengers -- who only announced campaigns recently -- but she's generally considered safe in the general election.

-- Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, D-N.Y., raised $1.8 million dollars in the last three months of the year, giving her a total of $8.1 million. Businessman Marc Cenedella, who could have self-funded, just decided against a run. Nassau County Comptroller George Maragos has said he'd spend up to $5 million of his personal fortune on the race, but he has failed to gain traction so far.

George W. Bush is making an appearance in a competitive Senate race. And not in a good way.

Rep. Mazie Hirono's, D-Hawaii, Senate campaign is taking to the airwaves with its first TV ad, a 30-second spot that ties Bush to both the congresswoman's primary and likely general election opponents.

"Mazie Hirono knows we can't go back to the Bush policies that have left America deep in debt," the ad's narrator says.

Hirono's ad mentions neither former Democratic Rep. Ed Case nor former Republican Gov. Linda Lingle by name, but its aim is clear.

"The only candidate for U.S. Senate in either party with the judgment to oppose the Iraq war," continues the narrator.

Politically, Case is to the right of Hirono, and Democrats are already tying Bush to Lingle, so it's a pretty smart ad that allows Hirono to go after both opponents at once without coming across as overly negative.

The underdog Case has already gone up with two TV ads of his own.

Add the Charlotte Observer editorial board to the chorus urging Erskine Bowles to run for governor of North Carolina. The paper hits on some points about the Democrat's background that will likely be repeated over and over in ads and campaign literature if he does make a bid:

Rep. Adam Kinzinger, R-Ill., outpaced fellow Republican Rep. Don Manzullo during the 4th quarter in a race that pits a veteran representative against a freshman.

Kinzinger brought in $286,000 to Manzullo's $170,000. Kinzinger also has more money in the bank: $651,000 to Manzullo's $523,000.

A redistricting map that favors Democrats in Illinois prompted the freshman Kinzinger to opt for a challenge against the veteran Republican in the 16th District. Manzullo was first elected in 1992.

Kinzinger, who will be just 34 on Election Day, won a tough race against Democrat Debbie Halvorson in 2010, while Manzullo hasn't faced a tough race in recent years.

"Manzullo can't keep this up much longer or the rumors of his possible retirement are going to escalate to the point where they ultimately become reality," noted an unaffiliated GOP operative with knowledge of House races.

Manzullo spokesman Rich Carter dismissed the idea that the congressman might be eying a retirement. "We're ready to go," he said, maintaining that Manzullo has the superior ground operation. "I don't think money will be a factor," he added.

The primary will be held on March 20.

Frontrunning Democrats in contested Senate primaries put some more distance between themselves and their opponents during the 4th quarter, applying further pressure on the underdogs to make up ground in races that are looking more and more one-sided:

-- In Arizona: Former Surgeon General Richard Carmona's impressive $570,000 haul -- in six weeks -- outpaced former state Democratic Party Chairman Don Bivens's $230,000 take and additional $160,000 in self-funding. What's more, Carmona wasn't far off Republican Rep. Jeff Flake's $607,000 mark -- and Flake had a full quarter to raise money.

-- In New Mexico: Rep. Martin Heinrich's $483,000 4th quarter easily outpaced state Auditor Hector Balderas's $108,000. The cash on hand disparity is glaring as well: Heinrich has nearly $1.4 million in the bank while Balderas has just $434,000.

-- In Connecticut: -- Rep. Chris Murphy's $720,000 and $2.5 million cash on hand is better than the combined quarterly hauls and cash on hand totals of former Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz and state Rep. William Tong. Enough said.

-- In Hawaii: Rep. Mazie Hirono raised $624,000 and ended the period with $1 million in the bank. Former Rep. Ed Case still has not released his numbers. That doesn't portend a big figure for him, and Hirono has outraised him in previous quarters.

Rep. Todd Akin, R-Mo., raised over $231,000 during the 4th quarter and finished the year with nearly $1.16 million in the bank.

Not great numbers, but compared to his GOP primary competitors, the figures stack up pretty well.

Businessman John Brunner brought in about the same amount -- $230,000, and pitched in over $1 million of how own money (though he also spent over $1 million) and finished with only $210,000 in the bank at the end of the period.

Meanwhile, former Treasurer Sarah Steelman's money woes continued into the 4th quarter, when she brought in under $84,000.

Ohio Republican Treasurer Josh Mandel, who has been a fundraising standout so far, waited until the 11th hour to release his 4th quarter numbers, raising questions about whether his pace had dropped off substantially. It slowed a bit, but his numbers are still solid for a challenger. The Dayton Daily News:

It's not dramatically less than Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown's $1.6 million haul.

Welcome back to Hotline Sort. Romney wins big in Florida and faces a favorable February calendar. Meanwhile, Bonamici holds David Wu's old seat for Democrats, Cenedella won't run against Gillibrand, and Dave Spence hits the airwaves in Missouri. Here's today's rundown:

8) Mitt Romney is getting Secret Service protection.

7) Check out The Hotline's first Veepstakes Power Rankings of this cycle.

6) The AP reports Adam Hasner will indeed drop his Senate bid to pursue a run for Congress in GOP Rep. Allen West's current district. We confirmed on Tuesday that Hasner was likely to switch as part of a game of musical chairs prompted by West's decision to run in the new 18th District and Republican Rep. Tom Rooney's decision to run in the new 17th District.

5) New York Republican Marc Cenedella has decided against a challenge to Democratic Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, saying in a statement released on Tuesday that, "under this accelerated election calendar, is untenable for me from a business perspective. The calendar is too tight for me to do what I need to do politically and professionally to win this seat in 2012."

Cenedella received increased scrutiny following a report about questionable blog posts that appeared on a website under his name.

4) Missouri Republican Dave Spence's first TV ad in the governor's race casts him as a political outsider.

First lady Michelle Obama on Tuesday tried to sell Jay Leno on adding more healthy foods into his diet by bringing apples and honey from the White House to The Tonight Show.

"White House honey? That sounds bad," Leno joked. "With a different president that could mean a whole different thing."

Don't miss today's Must See Moment at 1:18 when Jon Stewart and the first lady both react to Mitt Romney's rendition of "America the Beautiful":

Here's a roundup of the most notable Senate race FEC reports that flowed in on Tuesday. The deadline to file was midnight, and we'll have our complete winners and losers list once the remaining reports of interest trickle in.

Montana:

-- Rep. Denny Rehberg raised an underwhelming $656,000 in the 4th quarter and ended the period with $2.1 million in the bank. He finished the 3rd quarter with about $1.8 million in the bank, so he spent more than half of what he brought in during the 4th quarter.

By comparison, Democratic Sen. Jon Tester raised nearly $1.2 million and banked $3.8 million to close out 2011.

As Rehberg's campaign notes, Tester had less than $184,000 cash on hand at this point in the 2006 cycle. And Montana isn't an expensive state. But Tester is the clear 4th quarter money chase winner and should be very pleased with the cash on hand advantage he has built up.

Arizona:

-- Republican Rep. Jeff Flake announced raising just $607,000+ over an entire quarter, barely more than former Surgeon General and Democratic frontrunner Richard Carmona, who raised $570,000 in just six weeks. Flake, having started his campaign earlier, has $2.56 million in the bank, but also has to contend with Wil Cardon -- who has the ability to self-fund -- in the GOP primary,

-- Underdog Democratic candidate Don Bivens raised $230,000 and pitched in an additional $160,000 of his own money, well short of Carmona's pace.

A few solid incumbent hauls:

--Sen. Bob Casey, D-Pa., raised $1.09 million and banked nearly $4.4 million. But beware the Keystone state GOP self-funders (specifically Tom Smith, who loaned himself a whopping $4.25 million during the quarter).