Diageo/Hotline

As Pres. Obama marks his 100th day in office, a new Diageo/Hotline survey shows that voters are largely pleased with him and his job performance.

Sixty-four percent of respondents say they have a favorable opinion of him, and 31 percent of voters hold an unfavorable view. Obama's job approval ratings have also remained high and stable since his inauguration, with 62 percent of voters saying they approve of the way Obama is handling his job as president, and 33 percent saying they disapprove.

Obama's approval ratings are buoyed by the 18-34 set, who were wildly supportive during the presidential contest but have also come around in even greater numbers to back him in the White House. His approval rating is 76% among voters who fall within this age group, while it is 55 percent among those ages 35 - 55, and 60 percent among those 55 and older.

The 18-34 cohort also demonstrates a greater appetite generally for government involvement, 67 percent say it's a good idea, 29 percent say it's a bad idea. By comparison, 41 percent of the 35-54 percent are for it, 52 percent are against, and 45 percent of the 55 and older crew are for it, while 47 percent are against.

Younger voters are also boosting increases in the right direction/wrong track numbers, as some 56 percent of 18-34 respondents say the country is moving in the right direction, compared with 41 percent of those 55 and older and 33 percent of those 35 - 54. Overall, the right direction/wrong track gap has narrowed dramatically since January, when 52 percent said the country was on the wrong track and 31 percent said it was moving in the right direction.

Obama, said pollster Brent McGoldrick of FD, which conducted the survey, is "essentially bringing the country to parity in terms of whether people think the country is headed in the right direction or the wrong track."

Now, 47 percent said the nation is on the wrong track, 42 percent said right direction.

The poll also finds that Obama's approval ratings on most issues are high, with the war in Afghanistan (64 percent), war in Iraq (61 percent) and energy (59 percent) leading the way. Obama's approval rating on the economy, which 69 percent of voters say is the most important issue facing the country, is 56 percent.

Note, too, that 70 percent of voters say it will be at least a year and possibly as many as four years before the economy rebounds.

"People don't necessarily think the economy is going to turn around in the next few months," McGoldrick said. "The president has a fairly long leash in terms of when he actually has to deliver on the economy."

While 58 percent of voters say that Obama has focused "the right amount" on the economy, 42 percent also say that "the economy" is the issue they would like to see him spend more time focusing on for the remainder of the year. The top issue that voters feel Obama is paying too little attention to is immigration, at 52 percent, followed by terror, at 44 percent.

The poll of 800 registered voters conducted by FD from 4/23 -26 and has a margin of error +/- 3.5%.

Read on for congressional Dem and GOP job approval, and more on Speaker Nancy Pelosi's unfavorables (27 percent fav/44 percent unfav), among other data.

As he embarks on his first overseas trip, Pres. Obama continues to enjoy strong job and personal ratings back home, according a new Diageo/Hotline poll. The survey, conducted 3/26-29, also shows a record number of U.S. RVs are concerned about the economy, while a majority are confident in the new admin.'s economic agenda.

Although both remain considerably high, Obama's job approval and personal favorability ratings each dropped 4% since last month's poll. Approximately three in five RVs, 63%, approve of Obama's handling of his job as POTUS, down from 67% in the survey conducted 2/28-3/2. Similarly, Obama's fav dropped to 64% from 68% in the previous poll. Over the same period, Obama's job disapproval rose 4% and unfav increased 3%.

What's more, a record number of respondents in the Diageo/Hotline poll now feel things in the U.S. are generally going in the right direction. Nearly two-fifths of RVs, 39%, feel positively about the direction of the U.S., up from 32% on 3/2. The previous high in the poll's four-year history was 38% in 2/05. Nearly half of RVs, 49%, feel things in the U.S. are seriously off on the wrong track -- the first time the figure has ever been less than 50%.

This newfound optimism mirrors the record number of RVs concerned about the economy combined with respondents' steadfast confidence in the economic policies of the Obama Admin. An all-time high 85% now feel the economy is the most important issue facing the U.S., up 15% in just one month. At the same time, 61% are confident Obama and his team of economic advisors will be successful in turning around the economy, and 57% are confident the economic stimulus package will do so.

Split sampling shows 51% have confidence Treas. Sec. Tim Geithner will be successful in turning around the economy -- 10% less than Obama, though still a majority. Another 39% are not confident Geithner will be successful. For all the criticism he's received since taking office, Geithner's fav/unfav of 37%/30% makes him the only official tested besides Obama and VP Biden with a net-positive rating.

The Diageo/Hotline poll, conducted 3/26-29 by FD, surveyed 800 U.S. RVs and has margin of error +/- 3.5%.

(MATTHEW GOTTLIEB)

Just how bad is it for AIG out there? The latest Diageo/Hotline poll, released this a.m., shows AIG is more unpopular than Bernie Madoff. Four in five RVs have an unfav impression of AIG, including 67% who feel strongly unfav. Madoff, meanwhile has an overall unfav of 67% and a 63% strong unfav. Just 8% and 3% have a fav impression of AIG and Madoff, respectively.

The poll, conducted 3/26-29 by FD, surveyed 800 U.S. RVs and has margin of error +/- 3.5%.

(MATTHEW GOTTLIEB)

Pres. Obama maintains his post-1/20 bounce with impressive numbers on job performance, personal favorability and economic policy in the latest Diageo/Hotline survey, conducted 2/28-3/2 by FD. Obama's continued highs are mirrored by a more competitive environment for Congressional Dems.

Obama's approval rating is 67%, up from 63% in the previous Diageo/Hotline poll conducted just after inauguration (1/21-24). His disapproval rating, however, jumped from 9% to 27% as a result of previously undecided GOPers and Indies. Among GOPers, Obama's disapproval rating jumped 34% to 57%, and it increased 21% to 25% among Indies.

On a personal level, Obama's fav/unfav is 68%/27% -- slightly off his post-1/20 honeymoon high of 76%/15%, but nearly identical to his 65%/28% rating immediately after the election. Obama's Dem colleagues also saw a drop in favorability since inauguration. VP Biden's unfav is up 13%, Speaker Nancy Pelosi's unfav is up 9% and Sen. Maj. Leader Harry Reid's is up 7%.

The shift for these Congressional leaders is accompanied by strong GOP gains on the generic House ballot. On 1/24, Dems led by 24%, an advantage that today stands at just 6%. Although Dems remained basically constant among party subgroups, the generic GOP candidate made unilateral gains among undec Indies and GOPers. The GOPer gained 17% among Indie RVs and 21% among GOP RVs, as undecs fell in those groups by 19% and 14%, respectively.

Since the previous poll, the proportion of RVs who approve of Dems in Congress has remained constant at 49%, while the number who disapprove jumped 7% to 45%. GOPers in Congress saw similarly sized gains, with their approval moving from 26% to 34% and disapproval figure dropping 2% to 60%.

Among Dem RVs, Congressional Dem approval is up 14% to 82%. GOPers, meanwhile, jumped 18% in approval among GOP RVs for their first net-positive rating among their own party's RVs. Congressional GOPers, however, still test poorly among Indies, with 30% approval and 64% disapproval. Indies are nearly split regarding Dems in Congress -- 48% approve and 46% disapprove.

Looking to the economy, which 70% say is the most important issue facing the U.S., RVs remain confident in the stimulus package, Obama and his team of economic advisors. A majority, 53%, are confident the economic stimulus will be successful in turning around the economy; less than one in 10 RVs, however, is "very confident." More people (64%) are confident team Obama will be successful in turning around the economy, with 19% "very confident."

And while it is still early to judge the results of the stimulus, the package perhaps sets the backdrop for Nov. '10. Indeed, RVs today prefer a candidate who supported the $787B economic stimulus package by 13%. Nearly half, 48%, say they would be more likely to vote for a candidate who supported the bill, while 35% would more likely vote for a candidate who opposed it.

The latest Diageo/Hotline poll, conducted 2/28-3/2 by FD, surveyed 803 RVs and has margin of error +/- 3.5%. For full trendlines and graphs, please visit the new Diageo/Hotline Poll site.

(MATTHEW GOTTLIEB)

Earlier this week, OnCall noted the record positive numbers for Pres. Obama in the latest Diageo/Hotline poll -- among them a 16% jump in his favorable rating since the Dem convo. Similarly, VP Joe Biden's fav mark jumped 15% since the convo, an increase driven by gains across all demographics, particularly minority RVs.

Biden's overall fav/unfav is now 65%/18%, up from 50%/22% in the Diageo/Hotline survey conducted immediately after his selection as VP (8/29-31). Over the same period, his "strongly favorable" rating went from 21% to 35%.

Among hispanics, the VP's fav nearly doubled since the post-convo survey, from 37% to 72%. Over the same period, his unfav was basically static. Biden's rating among blacks of 54%/21% in Aug. has given way to an 85% fav mark today; less than 1% of African-Americans now have an unfav opinion of Biden. Among white RVs, Biden's fav figure is up 12% for a nearly 3:1 positive rating.

As in the earlier survey, Dems have a nearly unanimous fav impression of Biden. His unfav remains in the single digits at 3%, while his fav is up 17% to 85%. Among Indies, his fav is up 16% to 63%, while among GOPers it's up 9% to 39%. GOPers still hold a net negative rating of Biden, however, as his unfav remains nearly unchanged at 45%.

The most recent Diageo/Hotline, conducted 1/21-24 by FD, surveyed 800 RVs and margin of error +/- 3.5%. The earlier Diageo/Hotline survey, conducted 8/29-31, surveyed 805 RVs and has margin of error +/- 3.5%.

(MATTHEW GOTTLIEB)

In the latest Diageo/Hotline poll, Dems in Congress remain popular among RVs while Congressional GOPers struggle for favorable ratings, even among members of their own party. Released this a.m., the second half of this month's survey shows a public feeling generally positive about the Dem brand despite neutral sentiments towards individual Dem leaders.

In the final release from this month's poll, Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D) and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) rate basically neutral among RVs. Their fav/unfav ratings of 35%/35% (Pelosi) and 18%/20% (Reid) are, however, an improvement upon their respective 31%/40% and 12%/22% marks just after election day. Both Dems have slightly negative net ratings among Indies -- Pelosi at 29%/33% and Reid at 12%/17% -- as well as solid positives among Dems, 54%/14% for Pelosi and 27%/9% for Reid. GOPers, meanwhile, feel strongly unfavorable towards both leaders, in particular Pelosi with a 70% unfav rating.

Although lukewarm towards the leadership, 49% of RVs approve of Dems in Congress and 38% disapprove. Two in three Dems (68%) and a majority of Indies (52%) approve of Dems; among GOPers, just 22% approve of Congressional Dems, while 69% disapprove. GOPers in Congress do not fare quite as well as Dems, with just a fourth of RVs (26%) approving of their job performance. A majority of GOPers (51%), Indies (52%) and Dems (73%) do not approve of GOPers in Congress, and only 39% of GOPers approve.

Looking ahead to '10, Dems lead GOPers 46 to 22% on the generic congressional ballot. More than one-quarter of the electorate (26%) is undecided, including half (49%) of Indies. If the election was held today and all 26% undecideds voted GOP, GOPers would only be statistically tied with Dems on the ballot test.

The latest Diageo/Hotline poll, released in part yesterday, was conducted 1/21-24 by FD. The poll surveyed 800 RVs and has margin of error +/- 3.5%. Party ID breakdown for the survey is 40% Dem, 23% GOP and 30% Indie.

For Hotline subscribers, more details are available in yesterday's and today's Latest Edition.

(MATTHEW GOTTLIEB)

The first Diageo/Hotline poll of the year, conducted immediately after Pres. Obama's inauguration, reveals Americans are enthusiastic about their new leader and his agenda but also cognizant of the difficult road ahead. The survey, conducted 1/21-24 by FD, shows record concern about the U.S. economy as well.

The poll, released this a.m., gives the new POTUS a favorable rating of 76%, up from 65% just after the general election. More than half of U.S. RVs (55%) have a "strongly favorable" impression of Obama, and he gets an almost unanimous 95% total fav figure among Dems. GOPers, meanwhile, have a net-positive feeling towards him (fav/unfav of 44%/40%).

Although Obama has been in office just a few days, 63% of RVs approve of Obama's handling of the job, and 9% disapprove. Obama's "strong approval" of 42% is higher than George W. Bush's total job approval of 29% in the previous Diageo/Hotline poll, conducted 11/6-9. Among Dems, 76% approve of Obama's job performance, and 60% "strongly approve".

More than two-thirds of RVs (68%) watched the inauguration, including a majority of GOPers (53%); 78% of Dems and 66% of Indies watched. Nearly four in five RVs (78%) who watched Obama's speech said it was better than average for an inaugural address. An even greater proportion of those who saw it (83%) say the speech made them more optimistic about the U.S. meeting its challenges. Two-thirds of RVs (67%) have been so inspired by Obama's election and inauguration they intend to become more involved in helping the U.S. meet those challenges. This group includes 86% of Dems, 62% of Indies and 77% of those who saw Obama's speech.

Looking beyond 1/20, RVs across all spectrums agree the most important issue facing the nation and the new POTUS is the economy. More than three-quarters of RVs (76%) say the economy is the top issue, vastly outpacing second-place foreign policy at 7%. Just after 11/4, 47% said the economy was the most important issue to their WH '08 choice, with moral/social issues next at 21%. Concern about the economy spans gender, age, ethnicity, geography, education, income and party affiliation.

A majority of RVs also support Obama's proposed $825B economic stimulus package. Using split samples, Diageo/Hotline tested the recovery plan with and without details of how the money will be spent.

In one sample, 54% of RVs support passing a $825B plan to jumpstart the economy even if it means increasing the federal deficit. In the other sample, 66% support the same plan also knowing it includes $550B for alternative energy technology, roads/bridges, state gov'ts/local school districts and increasing benefits for the unemployed, as well as $275B in tax cuts/credits for individuals and businesses to generate jobs. And when subsequently asked which single part of the proposed package is most important, RVs most frequently name tax cuts for businesses to create jobs (27% among six individual policies tested).

The strong support for Obama's planned investment in infrastructure and tax breaks is in sharp juxtaposition to RV feelings about TARP. About one-third (32%) think the Senate's approval of the second $350B in TARP funds was a good idea. This position is shared across party lines; only 36% of Dems, 26% of GOPers and 31% of Indies think it was a good idea.

And looking ahead to economic recovery, 65% of RVs are confident the proposed stimulus package will be effective in turning around the U.S. economy, including 84% of Dems. RVs generally seem patient; barely anyone (3%) believes the U.S. will emerge from recession in less than 1 year, and 26% say it will be in 1 to 2 years. A plurality (43%) say it will be between 2 and 4 years, and a quarter of RVs believe it will be more than 4 years before the U.S. comes out of recession.

The latest Diageo/Hotline poll surveyed 800 RVs and has margin of error +/- 3.5%. Party ID breakdown for the survey is 40% Dem, 23% GOP and 30% Indie.

(MATTHEW GOTTLIEB)

The final Diageo/Hotline survey of the 2008 political season shows that 66% of voters are very or somewhat confident that Barack Obama will bring real change to Washington. Meanwhile, proving that voters are indeed expecting a measure of bipartisan leadership from Obama, 61% of those surveyed said they want the Pres.-elect to select an even mix of Dems/GOPers for his Cabinet.

The economy was, not unexpectedly, the issue driving voters' WH choice: 47% said it was the most important matter.

The full results, including President Bush's approval rating, right track/wrong track nos., fav/unfav nos. for Dem congressional leaders and more, available after the jump.